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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

A ``Tail" of Two Cities: Fatality-based Modeling of COVID-19 Evolution in New York City and Cook County, IL

I describe $SIR$ modeling of the COVID-19 pandemic in two U.S. urban environments, New York City (NYC) and Cook County, IL, from onset through the month of June, 2020. Since testing was not widespread early in the pandemic in the U.S., I do not use data on confirmed cases and rely solely on public fatality data to estimate model parameters. Fits to the first 20 days of data determine a degenerate combination of the basic reproduction number, $R_0$, and the mean time to removal from the infectious population, $\gamma^{-1}$, with $\gamma (R_0-1) = 0.25 (0.21)$ inverse days for NYC (Cook County). Equivalently, the initial doubling time was $t_d = 2.8 (3.4)$ days for NYC (Cook). The early fatality data suggest that both locations had infections in early February. I model the mitigation measures implemented in mid-March in both locations (distancing, quarantine, isolation, etc) via a time-dependent reproduction number $R_t$ that declines monotonically from $R_0$ to a sma ller asymptotic value, with a parameterized functional form. The timing (mid-March) and duration (several days) of the transitions in $R_t$ appear well determined by the data. However, the fatality data determine only a degenerate combination of the parameters $R_0$, the percentage reduction in social contact due to mitigation measures, $X$, and the infection fatality rate (IFR), $f$. With flat priors, based on simulations the NYC model parameters have 95.45\% credible intervals of $R_0 = 3.0-5.4$, $X= 80-99.9\%$ and $f=2-6\%$, with $5-13\%$ of the population asymptotically infected. A strong external prior indicating a lower value of $f$ or of $\gamma^{-1}$ would imply lower values of $R_0$ and $X$ and higher percentage infection of the population. For Cook County, the evolution was qualitatively different: after mitigation measures were implemented, the daily fatality counts reached a plateau for about a month before tailing off. This is consistent with an $SIR$ model that exhibits ``critical slowing-down", in which $R_t$ plateaus ! at a value just above unity. For Cook County, the 95.45\% credible intervals for the model parameters are much broader and shifted downward, $R_0=1.4-4.7$, $X=26-54\%$, and $f=0.1-0.6\%$ with $15-88\%$ of the population asymptotically infected. Despite the apparently lower efficacy of its social contact reduction measures, Cook County has had significantly fewer fatalities per population than NYC, $D_\infty/N=100$ vs. 270 per 100,000. In the model, this is attributed to the lower inferred IFR for Cook; an external prior pointing to similar values of the IFR for the two locations would instead chalk up the difference in $D/N$ to differences in the relative growth rate of the disease. I derive a model-dependent threshold, $X^{crit}_e$, for `safe' re-opening, that is, for easing of contact reduction that would not trigger a second wave; for NYC, the models predict that increasing social contact by more than 20\% from post-mitigation levels will lead to renewed spread, while for Cook County the threshold value is very uncertain, given the parameter degeneracies. The timing of 2nd-wave growth will depend on the amplitude of contact increase relative to $X^{crit}_e$ and on the asymptotic growth rate, and the impact in terms of fatalities will depend on the parameter $f$.

Frieman, Joshua↗
DOE OSTI2024

Near-global summer circulation response to the spring surface temperature anomaly in Tibetan Plateau –– the GEWEX/LS4P first phase experiment

Subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction of droughts and floods is one of the major challenges of weather and climate prediction. Recent studies suggest that the springtime land surface temperature/subsurface temperature (LST/SUBT) over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) can be a new source of S2S predictability. The project “Impact of Initialized Land Surface Temperature and Snowpack on Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction (LS4P)” was initiated to study the impact of springtime LST/SUBT anomalies over high mountain areas on summertime precipitation predictions. The present work explores the simulated global scale response of the atmospheric circulation to the springtime TP land surface cooling by 16 current state-of-the-art Earth System Models (ESMs) participating in the LS4P Phase I (LS4P-I) experiment. The LS4P-I results show, for the first time, that springtime TP surface anomalies can modulate a persistent quasi-barotropic Tibetan Plateau-Rocky Mountain Circumglobal (TRC) wave train from the TP via the northeast Asia and Bering Strait to the western part of the North America, along with the springtime westerly jet from TP across the whole North Pacific basin. The TRC wave train modulated by the TP thermal anomaly play a critical role on the early summer surface air temperature and precipitation anomalies in the regions along the wave train, especially over the northwest North America and the southern Great Plains. The participant models that fail in capturing the TRC wave train greatly under-predict climate anomalies in reference to observations and the successful models. These results suggest that the TP LST/SUBT anomaly via the TRC wave train is the first order source of the S2S variability in the regions mentioned. Furthermore, the TP surface temperature anomaly can influence the Southern Hemispheric circulation by generating cross-equator wave trains. However, the simulated propagation pathways from the TP into the Southern Hemisphere show large inter-model differences. More dynamical understanding of the TRC wave train as well as its cross-equator propagation into the Southern Hemisphere will be explored in the newly launched LS4P phase II experiment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Single $\pi ^0$ production off neutrons bound in deuteron with linearly polarized photons

The quasifree γ → d → π 0 n(p) photon beam asymmetry, Σ, has been measured at photon energies, E γ , from 390 to 610 MeV, corresponding to center of mass energy from 1.271 to 1.424 GeV, for the first time. The data were collected in the A2 hall of the MAMI electron beam facility with the Crystal Ball and TAPS calorimeters covering pion center-of-mass angles from 49° to 148°. In this kinematic region, polarization observables are sensitive to contributions from the Δ(1232) and N(1440) resonances. The extracted values of Σ have been compared to predictions based on partial-wave analyses (PWAs) of the existing pion photoproduction database. Our comparison includes the SAID, MAID and Bonn–Gatchina analyses; while a revised SAID fit, including the new Σ measurements, has also been performed. In addition, isospin symmetry is examined as a way to predict π 0 n photoproduction observables, based on fits to published data in the channels π 0 p, π + n and π – p.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

The discriminant power of bubble wall velocities: gravitational waves and electroweak baryogenesis

A precise determination of the bubble wall velocity v$_{w}$ is crucial for making accurate predictions of the baryon asymmetry and gravitational wave (GW) signals in models of electroweak baryogenesis (EWBG). Working in the local thermal equilibrium approximation, we exploit entropy conservation to present efficient algorithms for computing v$_{w}$, significantly streamlining the calculation. We then explore the parameter dependencies of v$_{w}$, focusing on two sample models capable of enabling a strong first-order electroweak phase transition: a ℤ$_{2}$-symmetric singlet extension of the SM, and a model for baryogenesis with CP violation in the dark sector. We study correlations among v$_{w}$ and the two common measures of phase transition strength, α$_{n}$ and v$_{n}$/T$_{n}$. Interestingly, we find a relatively model-insensitive relationship between v$_{n}$/T$_{n}$ and α$_{n}$. We also observe an upper bound on α$_{n}$ for the deflagration/hybrid wall profiles naturally compatible with EWBG, the exact value for which varies between models, significantly impacting the strength of the GW signals. In summary, our work provides a framework for exploring the feasibility of EWBG models in light of future GW signals.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multi-modal effects on indirect noise induced by turbulent entropy fields

Planar entropy waves are commonly assumed for predicting indirect combustion noise. However, the non-planar and turbulent nature of flows found in most practical combustors challenges this assumption. In the present paper, we examine the indirect noise generated by non-planar and turbulent entropy fields through subsonic nozzles. Firstly, we introduce a new transfer function framework that accounts for the contribution of non-planar Fourier modes of the entropy field to the indirect noise spectra. When applied to a turbulent flow field, this method demonstrates a significant improvement in spectral predictions compared with a conventional approach that only considers the planar mode. Secondly, simulations show that non-planar Fourier modes become significant above a threshold frequency ƒ thresh , found in the mid- to high-frequency range. This contribution of non-planar modes is explained by two-dimensional shear effects that distort the entropy waves. A scaling relation that uses residence times along streamlines is developed for ƒ thresh , showing good agreement with simulation results. Finally, we show that the indirect noise from non-planar entropy modes found in aviation combustors can be significant at frequencies below 1 kHz, which might be relevant in situations of thermo-acoustic instabilities coupled to indirect noise.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Using Machine Learning for Quantum Annealing Accuracy Prediction

Quantum annealers, such as the device built by D-Wave Systems, Inc., offer a way to compute solutions of NP-hard problems that can be expressed in Ising or quadratic unconstrained binary optimization (QUBO) form. Although such solutions are typically of very high quality, problem instances are usually not solved to optimality due to imperfections of the current generations quantum annealers. In this contribution, we aim to understand some of the factors contributing to the hardness of a problem instance, and to use machine learning models to predict the accuracy of the D-Wave 2000Q annealer for solving specific problems. We focus on the maximum clique problem, a classic NP-hard problem with important applications in network analysis, bioinformatics, and computational chemistry. By training a machine learning classification model on basic problem characteristics such as the number of edges in the graph, or annealing parameters, such as the D-Wave’s chain strength, we are able to rank certain features in the order of their contribution to the solution hardness, and present a simple decision tree which allows to predict whether a problem will be solvable to optimality with the D-Wave 2000Q. We extend these results by training a machine learning regression model that predicts the clique size found by D-Wave.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

OC7 Project Phase II: Code Comparison and Experimental Validation of Hydroelastic Effects and Member-Level Loads in Floating Structures

This paper presents results from Phase II of the OC7 project, focusing on hydroelastic modeling and member-level load prediction for a flexible floating offshore structure. Numerical predictions from 11 academic and industrial partners are validated against experimental measurements obtained from a 1:70-scale test of the VolturnUS-S semisubmersible platform. A comprehensive set of verification and validation cases is examined. The results demonstrate that hydrodynamic added mass has a significant impact on predicted elastic natural frequencies. Under regular wave excitation, the numerical models reproduce platform motions and mooring line tensions with good accuracy. Member-level loads are also predicted with reasonable accuracy. Some discrepancies are observed for potential-flow models not accounting for higher-order effects associated with the instantaneous wetted surface.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Reproducibility of fixed-node diffusion Monte Carlo across diverse community codes: The case of water–methane dimer

Fixed-node diffusion quantum Monte Carlo (FN-DMC) is a widely trusted many-body method for solving the Schrödinger equation, known for its reliable predictions of material and molecular properties. Furthermore, its excellent scalability with system complexity and near-perfect utilization of computational power make FN-DMC ideally positioned to leverage new advances in computing to address increasingly complex scientific problems. Even though the method is widely used as a computational gold standard, reproducibility across the numerous FN-DMC code implementations has yet to be demonstrated. This difficulty stems from the diverse array of DMC algorithms and trial wave functions, compounded by the method’s inherent stochastic nature. Here, this study represents a community-wide effort to assess the reproducibility of the method, affirming that yes, FN-DMC is reproducible (when handled with care). Using the water–methane dimer as the canonical test case, we compare results from eleven different FN-DMC codes and show that the approximations to treat the non-locality of pseudopotentials are the primary source of the discrepancies between them. In particular, we demonstrate that, for the same choice of determinantal component in the trial wave function, reliable and reproducible predictions can be achieved by employing the T-move, the determinant locality approximation, or the determinant T-move schemes, while the older locality approximation leads to considerable variability in results. These findings demonstrate that, with appropriate choices of algorithmic details, fixed-node DMC is reproducible across diverse community codes—highlighting the maturity and robustness of the method as a tool for open and reliable computational science.

Della Pia, Flaviano [Univ. of Cambridge (United Ki↗
DOE OSTI2023

Barotropic tides in MPAS-Ocean (E3SM V2): impact of ice shelf cavities

Abstract. Oceanic tides are seldom represented in Earth system models (ESMs) owing to the need for high horizontal resolution to accurately represent the associated barotropic waves close to coasts. This paper presents results of tides implemented in the Model for Prediction Across Scales–Ocean or MPAS-Ocean, which is the ocean component within the U.S. Department of Energy developed Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). MPAS-Ocean circumvents the limitation of low resolution using unstructured global meshing. We are at this stage simulating the largest semidiurnal (M2, S2, N2) and diurnal (K1, O1) tidal constituents in a single-layer version of MPAS-O. First, we show that the tidal constituents calculated using MPAS-Ocean closely agree with the results of the global tidal prediction model TPXO8 when suitably tuned topographic wave drag and bottom drag coefficients are employed. Thereafter, we present the sensitivity of global tidal evolution due to the presence of Antarctic ice shelf cavities. The effect of ice shelves on the amplitude and phase of tidal constituents are presented. Lower values of complex errors (with respect to TPXO8 results) for the M2 tidal constituents are observed when the ice shelf is added in the simulations, with particularly strong improvement in the Southern Ocean. Our work points towards future research with varying Antarctic ice shelf geometries and sea ice coupling that might lead to better comparison and prediction of tides and thus better prediction of sea-level rise and also the future climate variability.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Seismic constraints from a Mars impact experiment using InSight and Perseverance

NASA’s InSight (Interior Exploration using Seismic Investigations, Geodesy and Heat Transport) mission has operated a sophisticated suite of seismology and geophysics instruments on the surface of Mars since its arrival in 2018. On 18 February 2021, we attempted to detect the seismic and acoustic waves produced by the entry, descent and landing of the Perseverance rover using the sensors onboard the InSight lander. Similar observations have been made on Earth using data from both crewed and uncrewed spacecraft, and on the Moon during the Apollo era, but never before on Mars or another planet. This was the only seismic event to occur on Mars since InSight began operations that had an a priori known and independently constrained timing and location. It therefore had the potential to be used as a calibration for other marsquakes recorded by InSight. Here we report that no signal from Perseverance’s entry, descent and landing is identifiable in the InSight data. Nonetheless, measurements made during the landing window enable us to place constraints on the distance–amplitude relationships used to predict the amplitude of seismic waves produced by planetary impacts and place in situ constraints on Martian impact seismic efficiency (the fraction of the impactor kinetic energy converted into seismic energy).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

OC7 phase I: Toward practical sea-state-dependent modeling of hydrodynamic viscous drag and damping

Here, this article presents a collaborative research campaign under the OC7 project on refining the engineering modeling approach for hydrodynamic viscous drag and damping on floating wind platforms, focusing on the adjustment of hydrodynamic drag and damping coefficients for different sea states. The participant simulation results show significant improvements over the previous OC6 project in predicting the low-frequency resonance motion under nonoperational conditions. The improvements are mainly due to enhanced modeling, including the adoption of wave stretching, and directly tuning the coefficients to measured platform motion in waves instead of free decay. For accurate predictions of mean- and slow-drift motion, the better performing models use a decreasing column splash zone drag coefficient and increasing surge damping/drag with increasing wave height. The model tuning for heave and pitch resonance shows less consistency. Generally, both quadratic drag and additional heave or pitch damping are needed for accurate predictions. Alternatively, a quadratic drag formulation with velocity filtering for the rectangular pontoons leads to improved predictions without additional damping. This model is also potentially more predictive, requiring minimal adjustment to its parameters for different conditions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Numerical Modeling Framework for Flocculation and Cohesive Sediment Transport in the Wave Bottom Boundary Layer

Flocculation, a critical process in coastal and estuarine systems, plays a significant role in sediment transport, nutrient cycling, and ecological health. This study develops a cohesive sediment transport modeling framework tailored to the wave bottom boundary layer under dilute and equilibrium conditions, explicitly incorporating flocculation effects via a Population Balance Equation (PBE). Using Direct Numerical Simulation, six baseline cases, each with a distinct sediment concentration profile resulting from a constant settling velocity and critical erosion shear stress, are generated to drive the PBE flocculation model for given floc yield strength and stickiness. Results reveal that flocculation significantly influences sediment concentration profiles promoting three distinct stages, well‐mixed, transition to lutocline, and well‐developed lutocline. At low concentrations with well‐mixed profiles, cohesive floc properties are less significant, and turbulence is a main flocculation driver. In contrast, as concentration increases, cohesive floc properties become crucial, facilitating lutocline formation. Here, the analysis also highlights limitations of depth‐averaged settling velocity as a parameterization. It is suitable for well‐mixed and transitional profiles but fails in well‐developed lutoclines, where empirical formulations that explicitly incorporate turbulent shear rate and sediment concentration better capture variability. This study underscores the necessity of incorporating flocculation effects into sediment transport models to enhance predictions of sediment dynamics in wave bottom boundary layers.

Penaloza‐Giraldo, Jorge A. [Oak Ridge National Lab↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quasielastic least-squares reverse time migration of PS reflections

Conventional analysis of amplitude variation with offset for elastic PS reflections is based on analytical reflection coefficients in a layered medium, and wave-equation-based PS migration is mainly used to produce a structural image. To overcome this problem, we have developed a least-squares reverse time migration (LSRTM) method for elastic PS reflections based on a quasielastic wave equation. Here, the quasielastic wave equation can accurately model PS reflections with elastic amplitudes under the first-order Born approximation. Our LSRTM method inverts for perturbations of the S-wave velocity and density by minimizing the L 2 norm of the difference between recorded and predicted PS reflections modeled using a quasielastic wave equation. We refer to our new method as quasielastic LSRTM of PS reflections. Numerical tests on synthetic and field data indicate that our method can properly handle the amplitudes of elastic PS reflections and provides an accurate estimate of the perturbations of S-wave velocity and density. Extending the method to the 3D case is not straightforward and might require incorporating certain PS data processing techniques into the inversion itself.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantum signatures in nonlinear gravitational waves

The effective quantum field theory description of gravity, despite its non-renormalizability, allows for predictions beyond classical general relativity. As we enter the age of gravitational wave astronomy, an important and timely question is whether measurable quantum predictions that depart from classical gravity, analogous to quantum optics effects which cannot be explained by classical electrodynamics, can be found. In this work, we investigate quantum signatures in gravitational waves using tools from quantum optics. Squeezed-coherent gravitational waves, which can exhibit sub-Poissonian graviton statistics, can enhance or suppress the signal measured by an interferometer, a characteristic effect of quantum squeezing. Moreover, we show that Gaussian gravitational wave quantum states can be reconstructed from measurements over an ensemble of optical fields interacting with a single copy of the gravitational wave, thus opening the possibility of detecting quantum features of gravity beyond classical general relativity.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Magnon-spinon dichotomy in the Kitaev hyperhoneycomb β-Li 2 IrO 3

The family of edge-sharing tricoordinated iridates and ruthenates has emerged in recent years as a major platform for Kitaev spin-liquid physics, where spins fractionalize into emergent magnetic fluxes and Majorana fermions with Dirac-like dispersions. While such exotic states are usually preempted by long-range magnetic order at low temperatures, signatures of Majorana fermions with long coherent times have been predicted to manifest at intermediate and higher energy scales, similar to the observation of spinons in quasi-one-dimensional spin chains. Here in this paper we present a resonant inelastic x-ray scattering study of the magnetic excitations of the hyperhoneycomb iridate β-Li 2 IrO 3 under a magnetic field with a record-high-resolution spectrometer. At low temperatures, dispersing spin waves can be resolved around the predicted intertwined incommensurate spiral and field-induced zigzag orders, whose excitation energy reaches a maximum of 16 meV. A 2 T magnetic field softens the dispersion around Q = 0. The behavior of the spin waves under magnetic field is consistent with our semiclassical calculations for the ground state and the dynamical spin structure factor, which further predicts that the ensued intertwined uniform states remain robust up to very high fields (100 T). Most saliently, the low-energy magnonlike mode is superimposed by a broad continuum of excitations, centered around 35 meV and extending up to 100 meV. This high-energy continuum survives up to at least 300 K—well above the ordering temperature of 38 K—and gives evidence for pairs of long-lived Majorana fermions of the proximate Kitaev spin liquid.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2024

OC6 Phase IV: Validation of CFD Models for Stiesdal TetraSpar Floating Offshore Wind Platform

ABSTRACT With only a few floating offshore wind turbine (FOWT) farms deployed anywhere in the world, FOWT technology is still in its infancy, building on a modicum of real‐world experience to advance the nascent industry. To support further development, engineers rely heavily on modeling tools to accurately portray the behavior of these complex systems under realistic environmental conditions. This reliance creates a need for verification and validation of such tools to improve reliability of load and dynamic response prediction and analysis capabilities of FOWT systems. The Offshore Code Comparison Collaboration, Continued with Correlation and unCertainty (OC6) project was created under the framework of the International Energy Agency to address this need and considers a three‐sided verification and validation between engineering level models, computational fluid dynamics (CFD), and experimental results. In this paper, a novel floating offshore wind platform, the Stiesdal TetraSpar, is simulated using CFD under the load conditions defined by Phase IV of the OC6 project. The comparison of these CFD results against the experimental results demonstrated the ability to predict the platform response to waves when imposing the measured wave signals as input. Although validation versus experiment was largely successful, the damping behavior was impacted by uncertainties likely originating from the mooring system and sensor umbilical cable. This extensive comparison effort with multiple CFD practitioners offers insight into best practices to achieve reliable results.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Optical Design and Characterization of 40-GHz Detector and Module for the BICEP Array

Families of cosmic inflation models predict a primordial gravitational-wave background that imprints B-mode polarization pattern in the cosmic microwave background (CMB). High-sensitivity instruments with wide frequency coverage and well-controlled systematic errors are needed to constrain the faint B-mode amplitude. We have developed antenna-coupled transition edge sensor arrays for high-sensitivity polarized CMB observations over a wide range of millimeter-wave bands. BICEP array, the latest phase of the BICEP/Keck experiment series, is a multi-receiver experiment designed to search for inflationary B-mode polarization to a precision σ(r) between 0.002 and 0.004 after 3 full years of observations, depending on foreground complexity and the degree of lensing removal. We describe the electromagnetic design and measured performance of BICEP array’s low-frequency 40-GHz detector, their packaging in focal plane modules, and optical characterization including efficiency and beam matching between polarization pairs. We summarize the design and simulated optical performance, including an approach to improve the optical efficiency due to mismatch losses. Here, we report the measured beam maps for a new broadband corrugation design to minimize beam differential ellipticity between polarization pairs caused by interactions with the module housing frame, which helps minimize polarized beam mismatch that converts CMB temperature to polarization (T→P) anisotropy in CMB maps.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗