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At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Temporal persistence of postfire flood hazards under present and future climate conditions in southern Arizona, USA

Changes to soil hydraulic properties that reduce infiltration capacity following fire can increase flash flood risks. These risks are exacerbated by rainfall intensification associated with a warming climate. However, the potential effects of climate-change-driven rainfall intensification on postfire floods remain largely unexplored. Using rainfall and runoff observations from a 49.4 km 2 watershed in southern Arizona, USA, and a hydrologic model (KINEROS2), we examined the temporal evolution following a historic fire of three crucial hydrologic parameters: soil saturated hydraulic conductivity (K sp ), net capillary drive (G p ), and hydraulic roughness (n c ). We explored how the effect of fire on these parameters may influence peak flow under future climate scenarios derived from CMIP6, specifically the medium emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5) and high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Results demonstrate an increase in K sp from 11 mm h −1 in the first postfire year to 60 mm h −1 in postfire year 3. G p similarly increased from 19 mm in the first postfire year to 30 mm in the third, while nc was relatively constant. The highest simulated Q p occurred in the first postfire year. Under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, the likelihood of a 100-year flood is projected to be twice as large by the middle of the century relative to its historical magnitude. Simulations further indicate that the maximum expected discharge associated with a postfire flood, as derived from historical data, could be triggered by a 10-year rainstorm under the SSP5-8.5 scenario by the late century. Simulations also demonstrate that rainfall intensification will lead to greater persistence of elevated flood hazards following fire by the late century under both the SSP2-4.5 and the SSP5-8.5 scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1988

Snow cover, snowmelt and runoff in the Himalayan River basins

Not withstanding the seasonal vagaries of both rainfall amount and snowcover extent, the Himalayan rivers retain their basic perennial character. However, it is the component of snowmelt yield that accounts for some 60 to 70 percent of the total annual flow volumes from Hamilayan watersheds. On this large hydropotential predominantly depends the temporal performance of hydropower generation and major irrigation projects. The large scale effects of Himalayan snowcover on the hydrologic responses of a few selected catchments in western Himalayas was studied. The antecedent effects of snowcover area on long and short term meltwater yields can best be analyzed by developing appropriate hydrologic models forecasting the pattern of snowmelt as a function of variations in snowcover area. It is hoped that these models would be of practical value in the management of water resources. The predictability of meltwater for the entire snowmelt season was studied, as was the concurrent flow variation in adjacent watersheds, and their hydrologic significance. And the applicability of the Snowmelt-Runoff Model for real time forecast of daily discharges during the major part of the snowmelt season is examined.

Dey, B.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Understanding the hydrological response of a headwater-dominated catchment by analysis of distributed surface–subsurface interactions

Abstract We computationally explore the relationship between surface–subsurface exchange and hydrological response in a headwater-dominated high elevation, mountainous catchment in East River Watershed, Colorado, USA. In order to isolate the effect of surface–subsurface exchange on the hydrological response, we compare three model variations that differ only in soil permeability. Traditional methods of hydrograph analysis that have been developed for headwater catchments may fail to properly characterize catchments, where catchment response is tightly coupled to headwater inflow. Analyzing the spatially distributed hydrological response of such catchments gives additional information on the catchment functioning. Thus, we compute hydrographs, hydrological indices, and spatio-temporal distributions of hydrological variables. The indices and distributions are then linked to the hydrograph at the outlet of the catchment. Our results show that changes in the surface–subsurface exchange fluxes trigger different flow regimes, connectivity dynamics, and runoff generation mechanisms inside the catchment, and hence, affect the distributed hydrological response. Further, changes in surface–subsurface exchange rates lead to a nonlinear change in the degree of connectivity—quantified through the number of disconnected clusters of ponding water—in the catchment. Although the runoff formation in the catchment changes significantly, these changes do not significantly alter the aggregated streamflow hydrograph. This hints at a crucial gap in our ability to infer catchment function from aggregated signatures. We show that while these changes in distributed hydrological response may not always be observable through aggregated hydrological signatures, they can be quantified through the use of indices of connectivity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Storylines for the 1997 New Year’s Flood: The role of watershed antecedent conditions and future warming in shaping discharge in the Truckee River watershed

The 1997 New Year’s flood was among the most devastating floods in the Truckee River watershed located in western Nevada. This event resulted from complex interactions of flood drivers, such as extreme precipitation, wet antecedent watershed conditions, warm temperatures and rapid snowmelt. We leveraged simulated forcings from the regionally refined mesh capabilities of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (RRM-E3SM) and a process-based hydrological model to recreate the 1997 New Year’s flood for the Truckee River watershed across four climate warming levels ranging from the current temperatures to + 4° C. For each scenario, we conducted ensemble simulations with the same forcing but with 100 different seasonal watershed antecedent conditions, which were randomly sampled from long-term hydrological simulations. The results show that the 1997 New Year’s flood can be reproduced or exceeded consistently only when the antecedent watershed conditions are wet, specifically when streamflows are above the 75th percentile of the climatological value. There is negligible change in ensemble mean peakflows for Truckee River near Reno; however, there are increases of 18% and 14% under the warming levels of + 3° C and + 4° C, respectively. The increases in peakflows under future climate warming are attributed to wetter antecedent watershed conditions and enhanced snowmelt. Furthermore, the largest increases in peakflows occur at small, high-elevation headwater basins along the Sierra Nevada crest. This study highlights that changes in extreme flood events will result from the complex interplay of multiple flood drivers. It also demonstrates the potential of storyline approaches to analyze future realizations of these extreme events under different climate scenarios.

Climate change impact study↗
DOE OSTI2020

Relationships among forest type, watershed characteristics, and watershed ET in rural basins of the Southeastern US

Evapotranspiration (ET) typically accounts for 60–70% of precipitation in rural basins of the Southeastern United States. Since 1930, substantial reforestation of former croplands has occurred in the Piedmont and Appalachian Highlands in this area, leading to an expected increase in ET and reduction in baseflow. This study examines relationships between basin vegetative cover, abiotic factors, and water-budget partitioning in 45 USGS-gaged rural basins in the Southeastern US. Data are for the 1982–2014 water years with watersheds having ≥40% forest cover, crystalline-rock aquifers, minimal basin water export, and no large reservoirs. Long-term annual ET is calculated using the water-budget equation (ET = P-Q), which ranges from 641 to 971 mm/yr. (median 824). Vegetative cover and other basin variables are regressed against ET to quantify the effects of vegetative and forest types. Budyko analysis is employed to compare the watersheds and to evaluate factors affecting residuals. Regression analysis indicates that ET behavior is best explained by abiotic factors (i.e., precipitation and temperature) but forest-cover type also has some effect. Evergreen forest cover is less common than deciduous or mixed forest but has a positive relationship with ET, while deciduous and total forest have negative relationships with ET. Comparison of water-balance and Budyko-estimated ET indicates that deciduous and total forest are associated with negative residuals while evergreen is not significant. Furthermore, these results show that: forest cover effects on basin ET are complicated; forest-cover type is important for water-yield management in this region, and abiotic basin characteristics exert stronger control than forest cover on ET.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1994

Impact of microwave derived soil moisture on hydrologic simulations using a spatially distributed water balance model

Spatial distributions of soil moisture over an agricultural watershed with a drainage area of 60 ha were derived from two NASA microwave remote sensors, and then used as a feedback to determine the initial condition for a distributed water balance model. Simulated hydrologic fluxes over a period of twelve days were compared with field observations and with model predictions based on a streamflow derived initial condition. The results indicated that even the low resolution remotely sensed data can improve the hydrologic model's performance in simulating the dynamics of unsaturated zone soil moisture. For the particular watershed under study, the simulated water budget was not sensitive to the resolutions of the microwave sensors.

Lin, D. S.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Mapping snow depth and volume at the alpine watershed scale from aerial imagery using Structure from Motion

Time series mapping of snow volume in the mountains at global scales and at resolutions needed for water resource management is an unsolved challenge to date. Snow depth mapping by differencing surface elevations from airborne lidar is a mature measurement approach filling the observation gap operationally in a few regions, primarily in mountain headwaters in the Western United States. The same concept for snow depth retrieval from stereo- or multi-view photogrammetry has been demonstrated, but these previous studies had limited ability to determine the uncertainties of photogrammetric snow depth at the basin scale. For example, assessments used non-coincident or discrete points for reference, masked out vegetation, or compared a subset of the fully snow-covered study domain. Here, using a unique data set with simultaneously collected airborne data, we compare snow depth mapped from multi-view Structure from Motion photogrammetry to that mapped by lidar at multiple resolutions over an entire mountain basin (300 km 2 ). After excluding reconstruction errors (negative depths), SfM had lower snow-covered area (~27%) and snow volume (~16%) compared to lidar. The reconstruction errors were primarily in areas with vegetation, shallow snow (< 1 m), and steep slopes (> 60°C). Across the overlapping snow extent, snow depths compared well to lidar with similar mean values (< 0.03 m difference) and snow volume (± 5%) for output resolutions of 3 m and 50 m, and with a normalized median absolute deviation of 0.19 m. Our results indicate that photogrammetry from aerial images can be applied in the mountains but would perform best for deeper snowpacks above tree line.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating an Earth system model from a water manager perspective

Abstract. The large spatial scale of global Earth system models (ESMs) is often cited as an obstacle to using the output by water resource managers in localized decisions. Recent advances in computing have improved the fidelity of hydrological responses in ESMs through increased connectivity between model components. However, the models are seldom evaluated for their ability to reproduce metrics that are important for and resonate with practitioners or that allow practitioners to situate higher-resolution model outputs within a cascade of uncertainty stemming from different models and scenarios. We draw on the combined experience of the author team and water manager workshop participants to identify salient water management metrics and evaluate whether they are credibly reproduced over the conterminous USA by the Community Earth System Model v2 (CESM2) Large Ensemble. We find that, while the exact values may not match the observations, aspects such as interannual variability can be reproduced by CESM2 for the mean wet day precipitation and length of dry spells. CESM2 also captures the proportion of total annual precipitation that derives from the heaviest rain days in watersheds that are not snow-dominated. Aggregating the 7 d mean daily runoff to two-digit Hydrological Unit Code (HUC2) watersheds also shows that rain-dominated regions capture the timing and interannual variability of annual maximum and minimum flows. We conclude that there is potential for far greater use of large-ensemble ESMs, such as CESM2, in long-range water management decisions to supplement high-resolution regional projections.

Tye, Mari R. (ORCID:0000000324911020)↗
NASA NTRS2020

Exploring Spatiotemporal Relations Between Soil Moisture, Precipitation, and Streamflow for a Large Set of Watersheds Using Google Earth Engine

An understanding of streamflow variability and its response to changes in climate conditions is essential for water resource planning and management practices that will help to mitigate the impacts of extreme events such as floods and droughts on agriculture and other human activities. This study investigated the relationship between precipitation, soil moisture, and streamflow over a wide range of watersheds across the United States using Google Earth Engine (GEE). The correlation analyses disclosed a strong association between precipitation, soil moisture, and streamflow, however, soil moisture was found to have a higher correlation with the streamflow relative to precipitation. Results indicated different strength of the association depends on the watershed classes and lag times assessments. The perennial watersheds showed higher coherence compared to intermittent watersheds. Previous month precipitation and soil moisture have a stronger influence on the current month streamflow, particularly in the snow-dominated watersheds. Monthly streamflow forecasting models were developed using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and support vector machine (SVM). The results showed that the SVM model generally performed better than the ARIMA model. Overall streamflow forecasting model performance varied considerably among watershed classes, and perennial watersheds tend to exhibit better predictably compared to intermittent watersheds due to lower streamflow variability. The SVM models with precipitation and streamflow inputs performed better than those with streamflow input only. Results indicated that the inclusion of antecedent root-zone soil moisture improved the streamflow forecasting in most of the watersheds, and the largest improvements occurred in the intermittent watersheds. In conclusion, this work demonstrated that knowing the relationship between precipitation, soil moisture, and streamflow in different watershed classes will enhance the understanding of the hydrologic process and can be effectively utilized in improving streamflow forecasting for better satellite-based water resource management strategies.

Nazmus Sazib↗
DOE OSTI2020

AmeriFlux US-SRS Santa Rita Experimental Range Mesquite Savanna

This is the AmeriFlux version of the carbon flux data for the site US-SRS Santa Rita Experimental Range Mesquite Savanna. Site Description - The study site is located in the Santa Rita Experimental Range, approximately 45 km south of Tucson, Arizona, within the Sonoran Desert. The rangeland has undergone a shift from a semiarid grassland to a savanna due to the encroachment of the woody leguminous tree Prosopis velutina Woot., or velvet mesquite. A pair of adjacent watersheds of similar size ( 1.08 ha and 1.10 ha) was established to investigate the effects of mesquite removal on hydrologic processes. In 1974, diesel oil was applied basally to all trees in one watershed, with reapplication as needed and dead tree removal for wood, whereas the other watershed, where the flux tower is located, has continued in the woody plant encroachment process. In 2016, an herbicide process was applied to the area around the EC flux tower.

Vivoni, Enrique R.↗
DOE OSTI2023

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F US-SRS Santa Rita Savanna

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site US-SRS Santa Rita Savanna. This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site US-SRS Santa Rita Savanna produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - The study site is located in the Santa Rita Experimental Range, approximately 45 km south of Tucson, Arizona, within the Sonoran Desert. The rangeland has undergone a shift from a semiarid grassland to a savanna due to the encroachment of the woody leguminous tree Prosopis velutina Woot., or velvet mesquite. A pair of adjacent watersheds of similar size ( 1.08 ha and 1.10 ha) was established to investigate the effects of mesquite removal on hydrologic processes. In 1974, diesel oil was applied basally to all trees in one watershed, with reapplication as needed and dead tree removal for wood, whereas the other watershed, where the flux tower is located, has continued in the woody plant encroachment process. In 2016, an herbicide process was applied to the area around the EC flux tower.

Vivoni, Enrique R.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Hydrologic models for land-atmosphere retrospective studies of the use of LANDSAT and AVHRR data

The use of a Geographic Information System (GIS) and LANDSAT analysis in conjunction with the Simulator for Water Resources on a Rural Basin (SWRRB) hydrologic model to examine the water balance on the Little Washita River basin is discussed. LANDSAT analysis was used to divide the basin into eight non-contiguous land covers or subareas: rangeland, grazed range, winter wheat, alfalfa/pasture, bare soil, water, woodland, and impervious land (roads, quarry). The use of a geographic information system allowed for the calculation of SWRRB model parameters in each subarea. Four data sets were constructed in order to compare SWRRB estimates of hydrologic processes using two methods of maximum LAI and two methods of watershed subdivision. Maximum LAI was determined from a continental scale map, which provided a value of 4.5 for the entire basin, and from its association with the type of land-cover (eight values). The two methods of watershed subdivision were determined according to drainage subbasin (four) and the eight land-covers. These data sets were used with the SWRRB model to obtain daily hydrologic estimates for 1985. The results of the one year analysis lead to the conclusion that the greater homogeneity of a land-cover subdivision provides better water yield estimates than those based on a drainage properties subdivision.

Duchon, Claude E.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Estimating Watershed Subsurface Permeability From Stream Discharge Data Using Deep Neural Networks

Subsurface permeability is a key parameter in watershed models that controls the contribution from the subsurface flow to stream flows. Since the permeability is difficult and expensive to measure directly at the spatial extent and resolution required by fully distributed watershed models, estimation through inverse modeling has had a long history in subsurface hydrology. The wide availability of stream surface flow data, compared to groundwater monitoring data, provides a new data source to infer soil and geologic properties using integrated surface and subsurface hydrologic models. As most of the existing methods have shown difficulty in dealing with highly nonlinear inverse problems, we explore the use of deep neural networks for inversion owing to their successes in mapping complex, highly nonlinear relationships. We train various deep neural network (DNN) models with different architectures to predict subsurface permeability from stream discharge hydrograph at the watershed outlet. The training data are obtained from ensemble simulations of hydrographs corresponding to an permeability ensemble using a fully-distributed, integrated surface-subsurface hydrologic model. The trained model is then applied to estimate the permeability of the real watershed using its observed hydrograph at the outlet. Our study demonstrates that the permeabilities of the soil and geologic facies that make significant contributions to the outlet discharge can be more accurately estimated from the discharge data. Their estimations are also more robust with observation errors. Compared to the traditional ensemble smoother method, DNNs show stronger performance in capturing the nonlinear relationship between permeability and stream hydrograph to accurately estimate permeability. Our study sheds new light on the value of the emerging deep learning methods in assisting integrated watershed modeling by improving parameter estimation, which will eventually reduce the uncertainty in predictive watershed models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Location Identifiers, Metadata, and Map for Field Measurements at the East-Taylor Watershed Community Observatory, Colorado, USA (Version 3.3)

This dataset contains identifiers, metadata, and a map of the locations where field measurements have been conducted at the East-Taylor Watershed Community Observatory located in the Upper Colorado River Basin, United States. This is version 3.3 of the dataset and replaces the prior version 3.2 (see below for details on changes between the versions). Dataset description: The East River-Taylor Watershed is the primary field site of the Watershed Function Scientific Focus Area (WFSFA) and the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory. Researchers from several institutions generate highly diverse hydrological, biogeochemical, climate, vegetation, geological, remote sensing, and model data at the East-Taylor Watershed in collaboration with the WFSFA. Thus, the purpose of this dataset is to maintain an inventory of the field locations and instrumentation to provide information on the field activities in the East-Taylor Watershed and coordinate data collected across different locations, researchers, and institutions. The dataset contains (1) a README file with information on the various files, (2) three csv files describing the metadata collected for each surface point location, plot and region registered with the WFSFA, (3) csv files with metadata and contact information for each surface point location registered with the WFSFA, (4) a csv file with with metadata and contact information for plots, (5) a csv file with metadata for geographic regions and sub-regions within the watershed, (6) a compiled xlsx file with all the data and metadata which can be opened in Microsoft Excel, (7) a kml map of the locations plotted in the watershed which can be opened in Google Earth, (8) a jpg image of the kml map which can be viewed in any photo viewer, and (9) a zipped file with the registration templates used by the SFA team to collect location metadata. The zipped template file contains two csv files with the blank templates (point and plot), two csv files with instructions for filling out the location templates, and one compiled xlsx file with the instructions and blank templates together. Additionally, the templates in the xlsx include drop down validation for any controlled metadata fields. Persistent location identifiers (Location_ID) are determined by the WFSFA data management team and are used to track data and samples across locations. Dataset uses: This location metadata is used to update the Watershed SFA’s publicly accessible Field Information Portal (an interactive field sampling metadata exploration tool; https://wfsfa-data.lbl.gov/watershed/), the kml map file included in this dataset, and other data management tools internal to the Watershed SFA team. Version Information: The latest version of this dataset publication is version 3.3. This version contains 167 new point locations, 1 new plot, and 2 new geographic regions. Overall, there are a total of 1439 point locations, 75 plots, and 54 geographic regions. Additionally, the kml map of locations and image now includes two boundaries (Upper Ohio Creek (UO) and Carbon Creek (CA)) outside of the East River watershed (USGS HUC-10) and accompanying stream network that represents areas of focus. Refer to methods for further details on the version history. This dataset will be updated on a periodic basis with new measurement location information. Researchers interested in having their East-Taylor Watershed measurement locations added to this list should reach out to the WFSFA data management team at wfsfa-data@googlegroups.com. Acknowledgments: Please cite this dataset if using any of the location metadata in other publications or derived products. If using the location metadata for the 2018 NEON hyperspectral campaign, additionally cite Chadwick et al. (2020). doi:10.15485/1618130. This work was supported by the Watershed Function Science Focus Area at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231. Part of this work was performed at SLAC Accelerator Laboratory funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research under Contract No. DE-AC02-76SF00515.

2018 NEON and 2025 CHESS Campaigns↗
NASA NTRS2016

Watershed-Scale Modeling of Land-Use and Altered Environment Impacts on Aquatic Weed Growth in the Delta

The California Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta is the hub for California's water supply, conveying water from Northern to Southern California agriculture and communities while supporting important ecosystem services, agriculture, and communities in the Delta. Changes in climate, long-term drought, and water quality have all been suspected as playing role in the dramatic expansion of invasive aquatic plants and their impact on ecosystems of the San Francisco Bay / California Delta complex. NASA Ames Research Center, USDA-Agricultural Research Service, the State of California, UC Davis, and local governments have partnered under a USDA sponsored project (DRAAWP) to develop science-based, adaptive-management strategies for invasive aquatic plants in Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. Critical to developing management strategies is to understand how the Delta is affected by both the magnitude of fluctuations in land-use and climate / drought induced altered environments and how the plants respond to these altered environments. We utilize the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a watershed-scale model developed to quantify the impact of land management practices in large and complex watersheds on water quality, as the backbone for a customized Delta model - Delta-SWAT. The model uses land-use, soils, elevation, and hydrologic routing to characterize pesticide and nutrient transport from the Sacramento and San Joaquin rivers watersheds and loading into the Delta. Land-use within the Delta, as well as water extraction to supply those functions, and the resulting return of water to Delta waterways are included in Delta-SWAT. Hydrologic transport within the Delta has required significant attention to address the lack of elevation driven transport processes. Delta-SWAT water quality trend estimates are compared with water quality monitoring conducted throughout the Delta. Aquatic plant response to water quality and other environmental factors is carried out using a customized model component. Plant response to the range of water quality factors, response times, and altered temperature and light regimes of the Delta have required gap-filling studies to provide model parameters. Delta-SWAT provides a tool for evaluating temporal and spatial effects of land-use and altered environments in the Delta and contributing watersheds on aquatic weed growth. Using Delta-SWAT for simulation modeling allows evaluation of historic and current conditions as well as consideration potential climate change and management practice outcomes. Delta-SWAT adds to the scientific understanding of dynamics in the Delta and enhances development of science-informed, management strategies and practices.

Ecosystem↗
DOE OSTI2023

Relationship between isotope ratios in precipitation and stream water across watersheds of the National Ecological Observation Network

The timescales associated with precipitation moving through watersheds reveal processes that are critical to understanding many hydrologic systems. Measurements of environmental stable water isotope ratios (δ 2 H and δ 18 O) have been used as tracers to study hydrologic timescales by examining how long it takes for incoming precipitation tracers become stream discharge, yet limited measurements both spatially and temporally have bounded macroscale evaluations so far. Here in this observation driven study across North American biomes within the National Ecological Observation Network (NEON), we examined δ 18 O and δ 2 H stable water isotope in precipitation (δP) and stream water (δQ) at 26 co-located sites. With an average 54 precipitation samples and 139 stream water samples per site collected over 2014–2022, assessment of local meteoric water lines and local stream water lines showed geographic variation across North America. Taking the ratio of estimated seasonal amplitudes of δP and δQ to calculate young water fractions (F yw ), showed a Fyw range from 1% to 93% with most sites having F yw below 20%. Calculate d mean transit times (MTT) based on a gamma convolution model showed a MTT range from 0.10 to 13.2 years, with half of the sites having MTT estimates lower than 2 years. Significant correlations were found between the F yw and watershed area, longest flow length, and the longest flow length/slope. Significant correlations were found between MTT and site latitude, longitude, slope, clay fraction, temperature, precipitation magnitude, and precipitation frequency. The significant correlations between water timescale metrics and the environmental characteristics we report share some similarities with those reported in prior studies, demonstrating that these quantities are primarily driven by site or area specific factors. The analysis of isotope data presented here provides important constraints on isotope variation in North American biomes and the timescales of water movement through NEON study sites.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Projected changes in extreme streamflow and inland flooding in the mid-21st century over Northeastern United States using ensemble WRF-Hydro simulations

Study region: Northeastern United States (NEUS). Study focus: We investigate the potential impacts of climate change on precipitation, streamflow, and inland flooding in the NEUS during the mid-21st century. Dynamically downscaled climate projections from three global climate models for historical (1995-2004) and future (2045-2054) periods under business-as-usual scenarios were used to force the hydrologic model WRF-Hydro at 200-meter resolution and create ensemble hydrologic simulations. Additionally, an extreme value model was developed to project the risks associated with low-frequency hydrologic events. New hydrological insights for the region: Results from four major watersheds indicate a significantly wetter regime in winter months and potential drier conditions during late spring to early summer. Discharges in fall are projected to decrease in the northern watersheds and increase toward the south. Extreme flow and water depths resulting from extreme inland flooding are projected to increase by 5-20% and > 100%, respectively. The extent of the total flooded area is likely to be 20% greater by the mid-century. These increased risks can be attributed to (i) an approximate 25% increase in decadal mean and > 40% increase in decadal extreme precipitation intensity, (ii) up to 30% lower snow availability and 5-25% higher evapotranspiration throughout the year, and (iii) a projected 5% increase in soil moisture in all seasons except summer. Furthermore, rapid snow melting in winter will likely cause an earlier peak flow in the rivers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Model Advancements to Enable Impact Analysis of Climate Change on Streamflow Temperature

With support from the Department of Energy’s Water Power Technologies Office, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) has developed new tools that incorporate cutting-edge climate and hydrological science capabilities to assess the potential long-term impacts of future climate conditions on unregulated streamflow and water temperature within watershed-river-reservoir systems. The objectives of this project were achieved by enhancing key hydrologic and hydrodynamic models and transferring them to a high-performance computing environment to provide a high-spatiotemporal resolution, multi-scale modeling framework. The new modeling framework has the potential to quantify risks related climate change impacts on runoff, unregulated streamflow, and water temperature. Initial development and demonstration of the modeling framework was conducted under historical and future climate conditions in the Columbia River Basin in the Pacific Northwest and the Connecticut River Basin in New England.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗