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Enabling Interoperability in Earth System Digital Twins (ESDT): Integrating Observations, Models, and AI for Actionable Insights Through NASA'S Intelligent Systems Technology Program

NASA’s Intelligent Systems Technology Program (IST) is driving a paradigm shift in Earth science through the development of Earth System Digital Twins (ESDT). These integrated information systems create a dynamic "digital replica" of the Earth by harmonizing continuous, multi-source observations with high-fidelity models and state-of-the-art artificial intelligence (AI) that enable “What now?”, “What next?”, and “What if?” scenario building. These scenarios are reflected in NASA IST’s series of ESDTs, from the Coastal Zone Digital Twin that integrates complex data on the current state of the Chesapeake Bay to the Terrestrial Environmental Rapid-Replication and Assimilation Hydrometeorological (TerraHydro) AI-based ESDT that forecasts water movement across Earth’s surface, to the Agriculture Land Information System (AgLIS) which can be used to assess optimal planting dates and crop yield estimates. By bridging the gap between vast data archives and actionable insights, these projects enable a system-of-systems approach to understanding complex, interacting Earth processes. This poster will highlight recent innovations and future directions from NASA’s ESDT initiatives: Continuous Data Assimilation & Multi-Source Fusion. A core requirement of the ESDT work is the transition from static models to dynamic "living" replicas. This involves creating frameworks for the continual assimilation of near-real-time data from uncoordinated, heterogeneous sources, including satellite observations and airborne assets, and ground-based Internet of Things (IoT) sensors. These systems link design, operational status, and environmental data, ensuring the digital twin accurately reflects the current state of the physical Earth system. High-Fidelity Hybrid Modeling & Computational Acceleration to enable interactive "what-if" explorations, programs are moving beyond traditional, slow physical solvers by developing fast surrogate machine learning models and Deep Generative Models (DGMs). These hybrid approaches use neural networks to emulate complex physics, such as cloud feedback or ocean dynamics, at a fraction of the original computing cost, often leveraging advanced hardware like Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) to achieve the necessary scale. Federated Ecosystems & Interoperable Frameworks rather than building isolated tools, NASA IST is moving toward federated ESDTs and reusable analytic collaborative frameworks. This theme focuses on interoperability standards and common ontologies that allow specialized digital twins to interact and share data. This system-of-systems architecture supports multi-discipline investigations, such as analyzing how upstream watershed changes impact downstream urban flooding or how wildfire emissions affect regional air quality. By leveraging these advancements, ESDTs empower researchers and decision-makers to conduct real-time analysis and run complex hypothetical scenarios, ultimately improving our understanding of Earth’s evolving systems and informing critical real-world applications.

Earth System↗

Strategies for Validating Satellite Soil Moisture Products Using in Situ Networks: Lessons from the USDA-ARS Watersheds

There are a variety of soil moisture station designs and networks deployed throughout the world, each with varying applications and uses. The purpose of satellite validation of soil moisture products, a dense network of soil moisture networks are required with soil moisture sensors at the near surface (approx. 5 cm or less) to correspond to the satellite footprints and signals. The USDA- Agricultural Research Service operates a collection of soil moisture networks as a part of the Long Term Agro-ecosystem Research (LTAR) network to this end. These networks have been used to validate products from AMSR-E, SMOS, Aquarius, and SMAP. A review of these results and a synopsis of successful scaling strategies are discussed.

soil moisture↗

Data and Scripts Associated with the Manuscript “Water Column Respiration in the Yakima River Basin is Explained by Temperature, Nutrients and Suspended Solids”

This data package is associated with the publication “Water Column Respiration in the Yakima River Basin is Explained by Temperature, Nutrients and Suspended Solids” published in EGU Biogeochemistry (Laan et al. 2025). In this research, water column respiration (ERwc) data, surface water chemistry data, organic matter (OM) chemistry data, and publicly available geospatial data were used in analysis to evaluate the variability in ERwc at 47 sites across the Yakima River basin in Washington, USA. In addition to this readme, this data package also includes a file-level metadata (FLMD) file that describes each file and a data dictionary (DD) that describes all column/row headers and variable definitions. The data package includes the data inputs, and outputs, and R scripts to reproduce all the analyses performed in the manuscript and create manuscript figures. The data package is comprised of three main folders (Code, Data, and Figures). The Code folder is comprised of four scripts and three analysis-specific subfolders that contain the R scripts to perform the analyses described in the publication and create publication figures. The Data folder is comprised of two “.csv” files and four subfolders that contain data input and output files. The Published_Data folder contains a readme that directs the user to download the appropriate files and add to this folder when using scripts. The Figures folder includes figures from the manuscript in “.pdf” and “.png” formats and a folder with intermediate figure files. This data package is associated with a GitHub repository which can be found at https://github.com/river-corridors-sfa/rcsfa-RC2-SPS-ERwc. We acknowledge the Yakama Nation as owners and caretakers of the lands where we collected some of these data. We thank the Confederated Tribes and Bands of the Yakama Nation Tribal Council and Yakama Nation Fisheries for working with us to facilitate sample collection and optimization of data usage according to their values and worldview.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Changes in Vegetation Phenology and Productivity in Alaska Over the Past Two Decades

Understanding trends in vegetation phenology and growing season productivity at a regional scale is important for global change studies, particularly as linkages can be made between climate shifts and the vegetation’s potential to sequester or release carbon into the atmosphere. Trends and geographic patterns of change in vegetation growth and phenology from the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite data sets were analyzed for the state of Alaska over the period 2000 to 2018. Phenology metrics derived from the MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time-series at 250 m resolution tracked changes in the total integrated greenness cover (TIN), maximum annual NDVI (MAXN), and start of the season timing (SOST) date over the past two decades. SOST trends showed significantly earlier seasonal vegetation greening (at more than one day per year) across the northeastern Brooks Range Mountains, on the Yukon-Kuskokwim coastal plain, and in the southern coastal areas of Alaska. TIN and MAXN have increased significantly across the western Arctic Coastal Plain and within the perimeters of most large wildfires of the Interior boreal region that burned since the year 2000, whereas TIN and MAXN have decreased notably in watersheds of Bristol Bay and in the Cook Inlet lowlands of southwestern Alaska, in the same regions where earlier-trending SOST was also detected. Mapping results from this MODIS time-series analysis have identified a new database of localized study locations across Alaska where vegetation phenology has recently shifted notably, and where land cover types and ecosystem processes could be changing rapidly.

Vegetation↗

Understanding the Shift of Drivers of Soil Erosion and Sedimentation Based on Regional Process-Based Modeling in the Mississippi River Basin During the Past Century

Soil erosion and sedimentation problems remain a major water quality concern for making watershed management policies in the Mississippi River Basin (MRB). It is unclear whether the observed decreasing trend of stream suspended sediment loading to the mouth of the MRB over the last eight decades truly reflects a decline in upland soil erosion in this large basin. Here, for this work, we improved a distributed regional land surface model, the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model, to evaluate how climate and land use changes have impacted soil erosion and sediment yield over the entire MRB during the past century. Model results indicate that total sediment yield significantly increased during 1980–2018, despite no significant increase in annual precipitation and runoff. The increased soil erosion and sediment yield are mainly driven by intensified extreme precipitation (EP). Spatially, we found notable intensified EP events in the cropland-dominated Midwest region, resulting in a substantial increase in soil erosion and sediment yield. Land use change played a critical role in determining sediment yield from the 1910s to the 1930s, thereafter, climate variability increasingly became the dominant driver of soil erosion, which peaked in the 2010s. This study highlights the increasing influences of extreme climate in affecting soil erosion and sedimentation, thus, water quality. Therefore, existing forest and cropland Best Management Practices should be revisited to confront the impacts of climate change on water quality in the MRB.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessing the cumulative effects of nearshore habitat restoration actions for multiple populations of juvenile salmon in Whidbey Basin, Washington: foundation and approach for synthesis and evaluation

Ecosystem restoration is a common tool for re-establishing ecosystem processes, structures, and functions to improve biodiversity and services in coastal and estuarine ecosystems. In the Salish Sea, salmon habitats have been fragmented, reduced in size, and diminished in quality, and the ecosystem processes that form and sustain these habitats have been degraded and disrupted as well. This loss is especially prevalent in estuaries, where up to 90% of former salmon habitat has been lost or compromised. Salmon species are integral to the identities and cultures of people in the Pacific Northwest, yet salmon abundances remain at historic lows, especially in urbanized areas. Recent investments in restoration are creating rearing habitat and repairing lost ecosystem function. However, restoration efforts in this region have largely proceeded at the site scale, with less attention to big-picture thinking regarding how restoration will effectively recover degraded or lost habitats for target species. As a result, no landscape-scale evaluation program exists, and the cumulative benefits of multiple interventions are unknown. We describe innovative methods for science synthesis related to the evaluation of cumulative effects of ecosystem restoration for Pacific salmon, using years of existing, but disparate data. Building from previous work on cumulative effects evaluation and incorporating a hierarchy of hypotheses approach, we propose using causal inference across numerous hypotheses in a framework to assess the cumulative benefits to Pacific salmon from multiple estuarine restoration projects. We present the framework as a method that can be used to address many complex questions and provide examples from the Salish Sea where the approach is being implemented. The framework draws on science synthesis from numerous fields and uses a hierarchy of hypotheses, causal analysis at multiple scales, and a new hierarchy of synthesis for assessing multiple lines of evidence documenting restoration effects on Pacific salmon. We propose causal inference to synthesize dissimilar data streams, in our case, to identify various manifestations of cumulative effects of restoration and benefits to salmon, and to further inform restoration and recovery planning. A unifying framework would allow for the detection of thresholds at which restoration provides measurable improvement and would greatly advance understanding of the effects of restoration on ecosystems.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Restoring Historic Forest Disturbance Frequency Would Partially Mitigate Droughts in the Central Sierra Nevada Mountains

Forest thinning and prescribed fire are expected to improve the climate resilience and water security of forests in the western U.S., but few studies have directly modeled the hydrological effects of multi-decadal landscape-scale forest disturbance. By updating a distributed process-based hydrological model (DHSVM) with vegetation maps from a distributed forest ecosystem model (LANDIS-II), we simulate the water resource impacts of forest management scenarios targeting partial or full restoration of the pre-colonial disturbance return interval in the central Sierra Nevada mountains. In a fully restored disturbance regime that includes fire, thinning, and insect mortality, reservoir inflow increases by 4%–9% total and 8%–14% in dry years. At sub-watershed scales (10–100 km2), thinning dense forests can increase streamflow by >20% in dry years. In a thinner forest, increased understory transpiration compensates for decreased overstory transpiration. Consequentially, 73% of streamflow gains are attributable to decreased overstory rain and snow interception loss. Thinner forests can increase headwater peak flows, but reservoir-scale peak flows are almost exclusively influenced by climate. Uncertainty in future precipitation causes high uncertainty in future water yield, but the additional water yield attributable to forest disturbance is about five times less sensitive to annual precipitation uncertainty. This partial decoupling of the streamflow disturbance response from annual precipitation makes disturbance especially valuable for water supply during dry years. Our study can increase confidence in the water resource benefits of restoring historic forest disturbance frequencies in the central Sierra Nevada mountains, and our modeling framework is widely applicable to other forested mountain landscapes.

Boardman, Eli N. [University of Nevada, Reno, NV (↗

Sinuosity‐Driven Hyporheic Exchange: Hydrodynamics and Biogeochemical Potentials

Abstract Hydrologic exchange processes are critical for ecosystem services along river corridors. Meandering contributes to this exchange by driving channel water, solutes, and energy through the surrounding alluvium, a process called sinuosity‐driven hyporheic exchange. This exchange is embedded within and modulated by the regional groundwater flow (RGF), which compresses the hyporheic zone and potentially diminishes its overall impact. Quantifying the role of sinuosity‐driven hyporheic exchange at the reach‐to‐watershed scale requires a mechanistic understanding of the interplay between drivers (meander planform) and modulators (RGF) and its implications for biogeochemical transformations. Here, we use a 2D, vertically integrated numerical model for flow, transport, and reaction to analyze sinuosity‐driven hyporheic exchange systematically. Using this model, we propose a dimensionless framework to explore the role of meander planform and RGF in hydrodynamics and how they constrain nitrogen cycling. Our results highlight the importance of meander topology for water flow and age. We demonstrate how the meander neck induces a shielding effect that protects the hyporheic zone against RGF, imposing a physical constraint on biogeochemical transformations. Furthermore, we explore the conditions when a meander acts as a net nitrogen source or sink. This transition in the net biogeochemical potential is described by a handful of dimensionless physical and biogeochemical parameters that can be measured or constrained from literature and remote sensing. This work provides a new physically based model that quantifies sinuosity‐driven hyporheic exchange and biogeochemical reactions, a critical step toward their representation in water quality models and the design and assessment of river restoration strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Remote Sensing-Informed Zonation for Understanding Snow, Plant and Soil Moisture Dynamics within a Mountain Ecosystem

In the headwater catchments of the Rocky Mountains, plant productivity and its dynamics are largely dependent upon water availability, which is influenced by changing snowmelt dynamics associated with climate change. Understanding and quantifying the interactions between snow, plants and soil moisture is challenging, since these interactions are highly heterogeneous in mountainous terrain, particularly as they are influenced by microtopography within a hillslope. Recent advances in satellite remote sensing have created an opportunity for monitoring snow and plant dynamics at high spatiotemporal resolutions that can capture microtopographic effects. In this study, we investigate the relationships among topography, snowmelt, soil moisture and plant dynamics in the East River watershed, Crested Butte, Colorado, based on a time series of 3-meter resolution PlanetScope normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) images. To make use of a large volume of high-resolution time-lapse images (17 images total), we use unsupervised machine learning methods to reduce the dimensionality of the time lapse images by identifying spatial zones that have characteristic NDVI time series. We hypothesize that each zone represents a set of similar snowmelt and plant dynamics that differ from other identified zones and that these zones are associated with key topographic features, plant species and soil moisture. We compare different distance measures (Ward and complete linkage) to understand the effects of their influence on the zonation map. Results show that the identified zones are associated with particular microtopographic features; highly productive zones are associated with low slopes and high topographic wetness index, in contrast with zones of low productivity, which are associated with high slopes and low topographic wetness index. The zones also correspond to particular plant species distributions; higher forb coverage is associated with zones characterized by higher peak productivity combined with rapid senescence in low moisture conditions, while higher sagebrush coverage is associated with low productivity and similar senescence patterns between high and low moisture conditions. In addition, soil moisture probe and sensor data confirm that each zone has a unique soil moisture distribution. This cluster-based analysis can tractably analyze high-resolution time-lapse images to examine plant-soil-snow interactions, guide sampling and sensor placements and identify areas likely vulnerable to ecological change in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Recent streamflow trends across permafrost basins of North America

Introduction Climate change impacts, including changing temperatures, precipitation, and vegetation, are widely anticipated to cause major shifts to the permafrost with resulting impacts to hydro-ecosystems across the high latitudes of the globe. However, it is challenging to examine streamflow shifts in these regions owing to a paucity of data, discontinuity of records, and other issues related to data consistency and accuracy. Methods Recent trends for long-term periods (1990–2021, 1976–2021) in observed minimum, mean, and maximum seasonal and annual streamflow were analyzed for a range of watersheds across North America affected by varying degrees of permafrost coverage. Results Streamflow trend analysis revealed that areas affected by permafrost are changing variably over the periods in terms of maximum, mean, and minimum seasonal and annual streamflow. These changes indicate a significant shift occurring in the most recent 46 years towards increasing mean streamflow for the dominant (> 50%) permafrost systems. Meanwhile, minimum streamflow increases for all permafrost-dominant systems and many of the other permafrost-affected systems across the seasons and annual periods considered, with the greatest number of significant changes in streamflow over other metrics. Maximum streamflow is shifting variably with significant increases in the permafrost-dominant systems in winter and fall over longer time periods of analysis. Our analysis suggests that streamflow trends are driven by climate (precipitation, followed by temperature), while variables such as permafrost coverage only appear important in the most recent 32-year period. Discussion The increases in streamflow trends observed in this study are reflective of deepening active layers and thawing permafrost, indicating that the entire hydrograph is undergoing change within permafrost-dominant streamflow systems as the Arctic moves towards a warmer future under climate change. Despite the many challenges to understanding changing streamflow in cold regions, there are new products and datasets in development that are increasingly allowing researchers to better understand the patterns of change in Arctic and subarctic systems affected by permafrost, offering a range of new tools, which, along with continued observational records, may help in improved understanding of changing Arctic streamflow patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Application of Remotely Sensed Data and Models to Benefit Conservation and Restoration Along the Northern Gulf of Mexico Coast

New data, tools, and capabilities for decision making are significant needs in the northern Gulf of Mexico and other coastal areas. The goal of this project is to support NASA s Earth Science Mission Directorate and its Applied Science Program and the Gulf of Mexico Alliance by producing and providing NASA data and products that will benefit decision making by coastal resource managers and other end users in the Gulf region. Data and research products are being developed to assist coastal resource managers adapt and plan for changing conditions by evaluating how climate changes and urban expansion will impact land cover/land use (LCLU), hydrodynamics, water properties, and shallow water habitats; to identify priority areas for conservation and restoration; and to distribute datasets to end-users and facilitating user interaction with models. The proposed host sites for data products are NOAA s National Coastal Data Development Center Regional Ecosystem Data Management, and Mississippi-Alabama Habitat Database. Tools will be available on the Gulf of Mexico Regional Collaborative website with links to data portals to enable end users to employ models and datasets to develop and evaluate LCLU and climate scenarios of particular interest. These data will benefit the Mobile Bay National Estuary Program in ongoing efforts to protect and restore the Fish River watershed and around Weeks Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve. The usefulness of data products and tools will be demonstrated at an end-user workshop.

Quattrochi, Dale↗

From subsidies to stressors: Positively skewed ecological gradients alter biological responses to nutrients in streams

Abstract Subsidy–stress gradients offer a useful framework for understanding ecological responses to perturbation and may help inform ecological metrics in highly modified systems. Historic, region‐wide shifts from bottomland hardwood forest to row crop agriculture can cause positively skewed impact gradients in alluvial plain ecoregions, resulting in tolerant organisms that typically exhibit a subsidy response (increased abundance in response to environmental stressors) shifting to a stress response (declining abundance at higher concentrations). As a result, observed biological tolerance in modified ecosystems may differ from less modified regions, creating significant challenges for detecting biological responses to restoration efforts. Using the agriculturally dominated Mississippi Alluvial Plain (MAP) ecoregion in Mississippi, USA, as a case study, we tested the hypothesis that macroinvertebrate taxa that typically display a subsidy response to nutrient enrichment in less modified ecoregions (i.e., nutrient‐tolerance) shift to a stress response to increasing nutrients in highly modified watersheds with elevated baseline nutrient conditions (i.e., nutrient intolerance). The abundance and diversity of MAP‐specific intolerant taxa identified with threshold indicator taxa analysis were either unresponsive or exhibited a subsidy response to increasing nutrients in less modified ecoregions in Mississippi with less land alteration and lower nutrient concentrations, but declined at higher concentrations, providing evidence for a stress response to elevated nutrients in the MAP. Additionally, MAP‐specific tolerant and intolerant taxa richness responded to increased nutrients predictably and consistently across space and time within the MAP. However, in MAP streams, elevated specific conductance was predicted to dampen the response of tolerant and intolerant taxa richness to increasing nutrient concentrations, highlighting the importance of considering multistressor interactions when interpreting biological data. Lastly, we demonstrate the efficacy of this approach with sediment bacterial communities characterized with amplicon sequencing, which lack sufficient life history characteristics necessary for the development of multimetric indices. Both macroinvertebrate and bacterial communities responded similarly to increasing nutrient concentrations, suggesting DNA‐based approaches may provide an efficient biological assessment tool for monitoring water quality improvements in highly modified watersheds.

DeVilbiss, Stephen E. [U.S. Geological Survey Lowe↗

Near-Surface Hydrology and Soil Properties Drive Heterogeneity in Permafrost Distribution, Vegetation Dynamics, and Carbon Cycling in a Sub-Arctic Watershed: Modeling Archive

This Modeling Archive is in support of a NGEE-Arctic publication: Shirley et al. (2022) “Near-Surface Hydrology and Soil Properties Drive Heterogeneity in Permafrost Distribution, Vegetation Dynamics, and Carbon Cycling in a Sub-Arctic Watershed". [DOI].The dataset contains outputs from the global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of the “ecosys” model as reported in Shirley et al. (2022). The study showed that discontinuous permafrost environments are characterized by complex feedback loops and strong spatial heterogeneity which is created by variability in near-surface hydrology and soil properties. Additionally, the study demonstrated that missing representation of sub-grid heterogeneity in terrestrial ecosystem models can lead to biased estimates of the high-latitude carbon budget. Included in this dataset are the factor values for each run in the GSA and the model outputs used in this study. Included are two *.csv data files and one *.pdf.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impact of landscape design on the greenhouse gas emissions of shrub willow bioenergy buffers in a US Midwest corn-production landscape

Previous studies have evaluated the economics and ecosystem services of perennial bioenergy crops when replacing grain crops on marginal (environmentally critical and/or underproductive) lands. This study used life-cycle analysis (LCA) to investigate the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of perennial crops when grown in targeted landscape positions and their impact in reducing nitrogen leaching. Specifically, LCA was performed to evaluate the GHG emissions of growing shrub willow on marginal lands in the Indian Creek watershed in Illinois to assess the sustainability of strategically planted willow buffer strips. Willow was grown as a short-rotation woody crop with a 21-year rotation under three scenarios including a business-as-usual (BAU) field-scale production with nitrogen fertilizer application and two unfertilized subfield buffer scenarios – landscape single subfield (LSSF) or landscape multiple subfields (LMSF) – grown alongside cornfields to reduce nitrate leaching. Each scenario also considers three field sizes, 2.0, 10.1, and 40.5 ha. The average annual GHG emissions from willow production and depot transportation were 0.32–0.77 Mg-CO 2 e ha-1 with the lowest emissions for the LSSF scenario and highest for the BAU. The GHG emissions for the LSSF and BAU scenarios are independent of field size, whereas LMSF emissions increase with increasing field size, 0.41 Mg-CO 2 e ha-1 at 2.0 ha and 0.76 Mg-CO 2 e ha-1 at 40.5 ha. Emission results were most sensitive to the willow yield, followed by fertilizer application rate (BAU only), harvest fuel consumption, and transportation distance.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Permafrost Thaw, Uneven Subsidence and Projected Drying of Ice-wedge Polygon Tundra: Modeling Archive

This dataset is a model archive of the paper Permafrost Thaw, Uneven Subsidence and Projected Drying of Ice-wedge Polygon Tundra (in prep) to support a modeling study investigating how projected increases in Arctic temperature and precipitation will jointly influence hydrologic conditions in ice-rich tundra landscapes. With this dataset, this study is to address the research question: Will Arctic tundra landscapes become wetter or drier with increasing precipitation and temperature in the future when thaw-induced ground subsidence and associated microtopographic evolution are represented? The simulations focus on ice-wedge polygon tundra, a widespread form of ice-rich permafrost terrain that is highly sensitive to thaw-driven landscape change. This dataset contains model input and output data for four study watersheds in Alaska: Anaktuvuk, Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow), Brooks Foothills, and Prudhoe Bay. Simulations were performed using the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS, v1.5), a physics-rich integrated surface–subsurface hydrologic model. For each watershed, ten modeling cases were performed representing two landscape evolution conditions (with subsidence and without subsidence) combined with five climate forcing scenarios derived from Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP5, SSP5 with precipitation trend, SSP2, SSP2 with precipitation trend, and SSP2 with double precipitation trend). Particularly, for each watershed under the forcing SSP2 with precipitation trend, there are two additional simulations considering spatially heterogeneous subsidence distributions: one assumes randomly distributed scaling and the other includes elevation dependent distribution scaling. These simulations span 1980–2099 and include spin-up runs (1980–2009) followed by transient projections (2010–2099). To facilitate reproducibility of simulations, all datasets are organized by watershed. For each study watershed, the dataset contains: (1) Pre-partitioned mesh files for 32-core modeling (.par.32.XX), located in EACH_WATERSHED/mesh/basin; and also a non-partitioned mesh file (.exo) located in EACH_WATERSHED/mesh; (2) Climate forcings corresponding to the five SSP scenarios (.h5), located in EACH_WATERSHED/data; (3) Final states (.h5) from column spin-up modeling used to initialize historical watershed-scale spin-up runs from 1980 to 2009, located in EACH_WATERSHED/PreSpinupHistorical; (4) Final states (.h5) of historical watershed-scale spin-up runs from 1980 to 2009 used to initialize projection runs, located in EACH_WATERSHED/Spinup_daymetERA5; (5) ATS modeling input files (.xml), located in EACH_WATERSHED/EACH_SIMULATION_SCENARIO/inputfiles; (6) ATS modeling output files (.dat), located in in EACH_WATERSHED/EACH_SIMULATION_SCENARIO/combined_obs; (7) For the Brooks Foothills watershed, additional spatial model outputs are provided (.h5) for selected years (2033 and 2093) used to generate spatial figures in this study, located in Brooksfoothills/EACH_SIMULATION_SCENARIO/results-WITH/WITHOUT_SUBSIDENCE-year2033/2093. All data files with suffix .h5 can be accessible through Python h5py, and all data files with suffix of .dat can be imported by Python pandas. Mesh file with .exo can be visualized through Paraview or read by Python netCDF. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments in the Arctic (NGEE Arctic) project is a research effort to reduce uncertainty in the Department of Energy’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) by developing a predictive understanding of Arctic tundra ecosystems underlain by permafrost and to quantify feedbacks from the Arctic tundra to the Earth system. NGEE Arctic is supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. Over Phases 1–3, observations made by the NGEE Arctic team across a gradient of permafrost landscapes in Arctic Alaska improved the representation of tundra processes in the land surface component of E3SM (the E3SM Land Model, ELM). Model improvements emphasized unique aspects of permafrost environments and explored reductions in model complexity while retaining predictive power. The Arctic-informed ELM developed by NGEE Arctic has been used to make novel predictions on processes ranging from permafrost thaw to soil biogeochemical cycling to Earth system feedbacks associated with the unique characteristics of tundra plants. In Phase 4, the NGEE Arctic team is evaluating our new predictive understanding under novel conditions across the Arctic domain. In collaboration with partners at long-term pan-Arctic research sites we are examining whether an Arctic-informed ELM can faithfully simulate interactions among surface and subsurface processes at site, regional, and pan-Arctic scales. In turn, we are using variety of tools to dynamically extend and evaluate ELM inference, with an emphasis on data synthesis and pan-Arctic model evaluation, reintegration of code with an evolving E3SM, scaling across heterogeneous Arctic landscapes, and the appropriate representation of the impacts of increasingly frequent Arctic disturbances.

EARTH SCIENCE > ATMOSPHERE > PRECIPITATION↗

Simulation of high-frequency dissolved oxygen dynamics in a shallow estuary, the Corsica River, Chesapeake Bay

Understanding shallow water biogeochemical dynamics is a challenge in coastal regions, due to the presence of highly variable land-water interface fluxes, tight coupling with sediment processes, tidal dynamics, and diurnal variability in biogeochemical processes. While the deployment of continuous monitoring devices has improved our understanding of high-frequency (12 - 24 hours) variability and spatial heterogeneity in shallow regions, mechanistic modeling of these dynamics has lagged behind conceptual and empirical models. The inherent complexity of shallow water systems is represented in the Corsica River estuary, a small basin within the Chesapeake Bay ecosystem, where abundant monitoring data have been collected from long-term monitoring stations, continuous monitoring sensors, synoptic sensor surveys, and measurements of sediment-water fluxes. A state-of-the-art modeling system, the Semi-implicit Cross-scale Hydroscience Integrated System Model (SCHISM), was applied to the Corsica domain with a high-resolution grid and nutrient loads from the most recent version of the Chesapeake Bay watershed model. The Corsica SCHISM model reproduced observed high-frequency variability in dissolved oxygen, as well as seasonal variability in chlorophyll-a and sediment-water fluxes. Time-series signal analyses using Empirical Model Decomposition and spectral analysis revealed that the diurnal and M2 tide frequencies are the dominant high-frequency modes and physical transport contributes a larger share to dissolved oxygen budgets than biogeochemical processes on an hourly time scale. Heterogeneity and patchiness in dissolved oxygen resulting from phytoplankton distributions and geometry-driven eddies amplify the physical transport effect, and on longer time scales oxygen is controlled more by photosynthesis and respiration. Our simulation demonstrates that interactions among physical and biological dynamics generate complex high-frequency variability in water quality and non-linear reposes to nutrient loading and environmental forcing in shallow water systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mechanistic and predictive understanding of needle litter decay in semi-arid mountain ecosystems experiencing unprecedented vegetation mortality. Final report

This research compared needle litter decay rates and underlying mechanisms between litter released from insect-killed trees to that of naturally senesced litter from healthy trees across climate variables with elevation and snowmelt rates as variables. Our research was designed to address questions of whether there is a significant impact to C and N cycling at the terrestrial-atmospheric interface in association with pine needle decomposition and the role of changes in soil moisture and temperature as a function of these processes. Field activities were primarily conducted within the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory’s (RMBL) East River watershed across a spectrum of ecoregions that spanned approximately 700 vertical meters. Forested catchments at these elevations in southwestern Colorado are threatened by heat-induced drought, altered snowmelt patterns, and invasive insect infestation that have all been associated with climate change. Needle litter from two members of the Pinaceae family experiencing large-scale insect infestations (spruce and lodgepole pine) were collected, redeployed and then sampled over the course of three years. We experimentally tested three tractable parameters that are known to impact litter decay and biogeochemical cycling and are relevant to bark beetle-induced tree mortality: (1) moisture content, (2) temperature by using elevation as a surrogate, and (3) changes to litter compositional chemistry that result from beetle infestation. We examined decay processes and monitored the migration of soluble and gaseous nitrogen and carbon species as well as microbiological signatures of decay such as biodegradable fractions, metal availability and the temporal succession of associated microorganisms at the terrestrial interface.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Conterminous USA-Scale Map of Relative Tidal Marsh Elevation

Abstract Tidal wetlands provide myriad ecosystem services across local to global scales. With their uncertain vulnerability or resilience to rising sea levels, there is a need for mapping flooding drivers and vulnerability proxies for these ecosystems at a national scale. However, tidal wetlands in the conterminous USA are diverse with differing elevation gradients, and tidal amplitudes, making broad geographic comparisons difficult. To address this, a national-scale map of relative tidal elevation ( Z * MHW ), a physical metric that normalizes elevation to tidal amplitude at mean high water (MHW), was constructed for the first time at 30 × 30-m resolution spanning the conterminous USA. Contrary to two study hypotheses, watershed-level median Z * MHW and its variability generally increased from north to south as a function of tidal amplitude and relative sea-level rise. These trends were also observed in a reanalysis of ground elevation data from the Pacific Coast by Janousek et al. (Estuaries and Coasts 42 (1): 85–98, 2019). Supporting a third hypothesis, propagated uncertainty in Z * MHW increased from north to south as light detection and ranging (LiDAR) errors had an outsized effect under narrowing tidal amplitudes. The drivers of Z * MHW and its variability are difficult to determine because several potential causal variables are correlated with latitude, but future studies could investigate highest astronomical tide and diurnal high tide inequality as drivers of median Z * MHW and Z * MHW variability, respectively. Watersheds of the Gulf Coast often had propagated Z * MHW uncertainty greater than the tidal amplitude itself emphasizing the diminished practicality of applying Z * MHW as a flooding proxy to microtidal wetlands. Future studies could focus on validating and improving these physical map products and using them for synoptic modeling of tidal wetland carbon dynamics and sea-level rise vulnerability analyses.

Holmquist, James R. (ORCID:0000000325466766)↗