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At least 181 records · Page 10

Cyber-Threat Assessment for the Air Traffic Management System: A Network Controls Approach

Air transportation networks are being disrupted with increasing frequency by failures in their cyber- (computing, communication, control) systems. Whether these cyber- failures arise due to deliberate attacks or incidental errors, they can have far-reaching impact on the performance of the air traffic control and management systems. For instance, a computer failure in the Washington DC Air Route Traffic Control Center (ZDC) on August 15, 2015, caused nearly complete closure of the Centers airspace for several hours. This closure had a propagative impact across the United States National Airspace System, causing changed congestion patterns and requiring placement of a suite of traffic management initiatives to address the capacity reduction and congestion. A snapshot of traffic on that day clearly shows the closure of the ZDC airspace and the resulting congestion at its boundary, which required augmented traffic management at multiple locations. Cyber- events also have important ramifications for private stakeholders, particularly the airlines. During the last few months, computer-system issues have caused several airlines fleets to be grounded for significant periods of time: these include United Airlines (twice), LOT Polish Airlines, and American Airlines. Delays and regional stoppages due to cyber- events are even more common, and may have myriad causes (e.g., failure of the Department of Homeland Security systems needed for security check of passengers, see [3]). The growing frequency of cyber- disruptions in the air transportation system reflects a much broader trend in the modern society: cyber- failures and threats are becoming increasingly pervasive, varied, and impactful. In consequence, an intense effort is underway to develop secure and resilient cyber- systems that can protect against, detect, and remove threats, see e.g. and its many citations. The outcomes of this wide effort on cyber- security are applicable to the air transportation infrastructure, and indeed security solutions are being implemented in the current system. While these security solutions are important, they only provide a piecemeal solution. Particular computers or communication channels are protected from particular attacks, without a holistic view of the air transportation infrastructure. On the other hand, the above-listed incidents highlight that a holistic approach is needed, for several reasons. First, the air transportation infrastructure is a large scale cyber-physical system with multiple stakeholders and diverse legacy assets. It is impractical to protect every cyber- asset from known and unknown disruptions, and instead a strategic view of security is needed. Second, disruptions to the cyber- system can incur complex propagative impacts across the air transportation network, including its physical and human assets. Also, these implications of cyber- events are exacerbated or modulated by other disruptions and operational specifics, e.g. severe weather, operator fatigue or error, etc. These characteristics motivate a holistic and strategic perspective on protecting the air transportation infrastructure from cyber- events. The analysis of cyber- threats to the air traffic system is also inextricably tied to the integration of new autonomy into the airspace. The replacement of human operators with cyber functions leaves the network open to new cyber threats, which must be modeled and managed. Paradoxically, the mitigation of cyber events in the airspace will also likely require additional autonomy, given the fast time scale and myriad pathways of cyber-attacks which must be managed. The assessment of new vulnerabilities upon integration of new autonomy is also a key motivation for a holistic perspective on cyber threats.

Complex Networks↗

20,000 Years of Societal Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in Southwest Asia

The Fertile Crescent, its hilly flanks and surrounding drylands has been a critical region for studying how climate has influenced societal change, and this review focuses on the region over the last 20,000 years. The complex social, economic, and environmental landscapes in the region today are not new phenomena and understanding their interactions requires a nuanced, multidisciplinary understanding of the past. This review builds on a history of collaboration between the social and natural palaeoscience disciplines. We provide a multidisciplinary, multiscalar perspective on the relevance of past climate, environmental, and archaeological research in assessing present day vulnerabilities and risks for the populations of southwest Asia. We discuss the complexity of palaeoclimatic data interpretation, particularly in relation to hydrology, and provide an overview of key time periods of palaeoclimatic interest. We discuss the critical role that vegetation plays in the human–climate–environment nexus and discuss the implications of the available palaeoclimate and archaeological data, and their interpretation, for palaeonarratives of the region, both climatically and socially. We also provide an overview of how modelling can improve our understanding of past climate impacts and associated change in risk to societies. We conclude by looking to future work, and identify themes of “scale” and “seasonality” as still requiring further focus. We suggest that by appreciating a given locale's place in the regional hydroscape, be it an archaeological site or palaeoenvironmental archive, more robust links to climate can be made where appropriate and interpretations drawn will demand the resolution of factors acting across multiple scales.

Levant↗

Plan evaluation for heat resilience: complementary methods to comprehensively assess heat planning in Tempe and Tucson, Arizona

Abstract Escalating impacts from climate change and urban heat are increasing the urgency for communities to equitably plan for heat resilience. Cities in the desert Southwest are among the hottest and fastest warming in the U.S., placing them on the front lines of heat planning. Urban heat resilience requires an integrated planning approach that coordinates strategies across the network of plans that shape the built environment and risk patterns. To date, few studies have assessed cities’ progress on heat planning. This research is the first to combine two emerging plan evaluation approaches to examine how networks of plans shape urban heat resilience through case studies of Tempe and Tucson, Arizona. The first methodology, Plan Quality Evaluation for Heat Resilience, adapts existing plan quality assessment approaches to heat. We assess whether plans meet 56 criteria across seven principles of high-quality planning and the types of heat strategies included in the plans. The second methodology, the Plan Integration for Resilience Scorecard™ (PIRS™) for Heat, focuses on plan policies that could influence urban heat hazards. We categorize policies by policy tool and heat mitigation strategy and score them based on their heat impact. Scored policies are then mapped to evaluate their spatial distribution and the net effect of the plan network. The resulting PIRS™ for Heat scorecard is compared with heat vulnerability indicators to assess policy alignment with risks. We find that both cities are proactively planning for heat resilience using similar plan and strategy types, however, there are clear and consistent opportunities for improvement. Combining these complementary plan evaluation methods provides a more comprehensive understanding of how plans address heat and a generalizable approach that communities everywhere could use to identify opportunities for improved heat resilience planning.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Oregon Rivers Characterization Tool

DHS’s Regional Resiliency Assessment Program (RRAP) undertook the Oregon State Transportation Systems RRAP project between 2018-2021 to assess the seismic vulnerabilities of the state’s transportation system to a Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) earthquake (CISA 2021). The project primarily focused on the effects of a CSZ earthquake on the mobility of emergency response efforts into the region. In the event that bridges located at crucial river crossings fail during a CSZ earthquake, rivers will become natural barriers affecting the ability to support response and recovery efforts. The characteristics of rivers (e.g., width, depth, and flow) are critical data to inform planning for the recovery of transportation systems across river barriers and determine reopening times following a CSZ earthquake. As part of the transportation system assessment, an Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) project team developed a River Characterization Tool (RCT) to quantify the physical characteristics of the river system in Oregon, which can be used to inform a system-level analysis of transportation recovery and reopening times. This report mainly discusses approaches, methods, development, and applications of the RCT. The use of the river data generated from this tool for a system-level analysis of transportation recovery is discussed in the Oregon Transportation Systems RRAP Resiliency Assessment report (CISA 2021). The primary goal of the RCT is to generate statewide dataset of widths, depths, and flows for all rivers across Oregon to assess the effects of river barriers on emergency response and recovery efforts following a CSZ earthquake. The RCT leverages remote sensing data that multispectral sensors collect from satellites, employs a deep learning model to characterize river predictions, and computes river channel geometric dimensions with hydraulic relationships and river predictions. The entire process of river characterization is automated and implemented through the RCT.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Evaluating Methods of Software Bill of Materials Generation to Enhance Nuclear Power Plant Cybersecurity

Instrumentation and control (I&C) systems in nuclear power plants (NPPs) are potential targets of cyberattacks and can prove deleterious for the safety of the NPPs. A Software Bill of Materials (SBOM) provides a detailed list of the various components and their dependencies in software, which helps in vulnerability and risk assessment for cyber hygiene and situational awareness. For an NPP, the process of generating an accurate SBOM report can be complex due to the legacy systems and firmware binaries involved. While most current SBOM tools are focused more on modern internet technology software, this research provides insights and guidelines for an NPP to generate an accurate and efficient SBOM. Here, the paper proposes a new methodology to help NPPs categorize software and use appropriate tools to generate SBOMs for their digital I&C systems.

SBOM↗

Identification of Critical Infrastructure via PageRank

Assessing critical infrastructure vulnerabilities is paramount to arranging efficient plans for their protection. Critical infrastructures are cyber-physical systems that can be represented as a network consisting of nodes and edges and highly interdependent in nature. Given the interdependent nature of critical infrastuctures, failure in one node may cause failure in many others resulting in a cascade of failures. In this paper, we propose a node criticality metric that uses Google’s PageRank algorithm to identify nodes that are likely to fail (are vulnerable), nodes whose failure may cascade to many other sites in the network (are important), and nodes that are both vulnerable and important (are critical). We then present a series of experiments to understand how protecting certain critical nodes can help mitigate massive cascading failures. Simulating failures in a real-world network with and without critical node protections demonstrates the importance of identifying critical nodes in an infrastructure network.

Kay, Bill↗

Atoms-to-devices models for post-irradiation annealing kinetics in III-V semiconductors

Understanding atomic displacement damage and propagating this understanding into validated defect-aware radiation damage models is a critical step toward achieving predictive, atoms-to-systems assessment of radiation vulnerabilities of microelectronics. These models are essential for evaluating the performance and reliability of nuclear stockpile components or space-based electronics (satellites). The goal of this project was to bridge a fundamental science gap between defect spectroscopies and atomistic modeling of radiation-induced defects on the one hand, and simulations of device response on the other hand, to develop predictive defect-aware damage models for high-fidelity device simulations of radiation-damaged III-V semiconductors.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Technical Background and Validation Report on the Residential Water Inhalation Risk Calculator Presented in the Risk Assessment Information System

Indoor air quality (IAQ) is critical for human health. Poor IAQ is linked to respiratory issues, cardiovascular diseases, and cancer. Indoor pollutants are emitted by typical household items such as cleaning products, personal care items, building materials, and tap water - an understudied volatile organic compound (VOC) source. This document presents the Residential Water Inhalation Risk Calculator (RWIRC), which estimates daily VOC exposure concentrations from various household water uses, such as showering and dishwashing, to assess exposure risks for the most vulnerable occupant. Integrated into the Risk Assessment Information System (RAIS) and sponsored by the US Department of Energy (DOE), the calculator divides a house into three compartments: shower, bathroom, and other spaces, accounting for daily water usage patterns and calculating VOC concentrations. Exposure data generated using the calculator can assist health assessors in estimating excess lifetime cancer risk (ELCR) and hazard index (HI) from VOC inhalation. Unlike traditional exposure models that utilize Andelman’s constant, the RWIRC continuously assesses variability in VOC concentrations and environmental conditions using differential equations to track VOC concentrations and air exchange between compartments. The calculator also provides unique volatilization fractions for each chemical and appliance, enhancing accuracy of the exposure concentration estimation. The RWIRC is accessible online and allows users to customize parameters (i.e., number of bathrooms, water temperature, and exhaust fan conditions) and input VOC characteristics (i.e., tap water and ambient air concentrations). This document provides a step-by-step guide on implementing the calculator. It also provides comparisons with the ATSDR-SHOWER calculator, using eight VOCs with varying physicochemical properties to reveal differences in algorithms and output concentrations. Simulations also assess how bathroom door positions and exhaust fan usage affect VOC exposure. The calculator results can enhance EPA risk screening levels for inhalation exposure to VOCs from tap water, offering a sophisticated tool for assessing inhalation risks and improving public health protection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

CLEAP Project: OR-SAGE Analysis for MT, UT, and CO States

The OR-SAGE tool is designed to use industry-accepted practices in screening sites and then employ the proper array of data sources through the considerable computational capabilities of GIS technology available at ORNL. The tool was developed to screen the potential for NPP siting on a national and regional basis. However, because of the tool granularity, it is often focused specifically on the immediate area around user sites of interest. If data center siting parameters can be added to OR-SAGE, the ability to evaluate data center siting on a localized scale will be beneficial.1 More than 60 data sets have been collected and processed by ORNL to develop exclusionary, avoidance, and suitability criteria for screening sites for a variety of power generation types, including nuclear power plants. Available site evaluation parameters include population density, slope, seismic activity, proximity to cooling-water sources, proximity to hazard facilities, avoidance of protected lands and floodplains, susceptibility to landslide hazards, and many others. All siting parameters should be considered as flags to inform siting decisions and should not be used to rule in or rule out any NPP site. Once data center siting parameters are identified, appropriate data sets will be collected and processed. The OR-SAGE process is very versatile. Essentially, OR-SAGE is a visual, relational database. The database partitions the contiguous United States, a total of 720 million hectares (~1.8 billion acres), into 100-m by 100-m (1 hectare or ~2.5 acre) cells. The database is tracking just under 700 million individual land cells. Successive suitability criterion is applied to each cell in the database. User-specified thresholds can be applied to each siting parameter data layer. In this manner, a variety of scenarios can be quickly and thoroughly evaluated. Data can be added and/or revised within OR-SAGE to address user interests. Siting security assessment capability is currently being added to OR-SAGE. Security is expected to be of concern at data centers whether it is collocated with a nuclear power generating technology or not. If data center is collocated with a nuclear power generating source, the security threat attractiveness level of both will likely increase. It will be of additional benefit if a potential data center site is also assessed for security vulnerability.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Integrated technology rotor/flight research rotor hub concept definition

Two variations of the helicopter bearingless main rotor hub concept are proposed as bases for further development in the preliminary design phase of the Integrated Technology Rotor/Flight Research Rotor (ITR/FRR) program. This selection was the result of an evaluation of three bearingless hub concepts and two articulated hub concepts with elastomeric bearings. The characteristics of each concept were evaluated by means of simplified methodology. These characteristics included the assessment of stability, vulnerability, weight, drag, cost, stiffness, fatigue life, maintainability, and reliability.

Dixon, P. G. C.↗

Ensuring Flexibility and Security in SDN-Based Spacecraft Communication Networks Through Risk Assessment

Software-defined networking (SDN) has enabled elastic networking and resource distribution in cloud computing. The centralization and separation of the Control Plane also offers a high degree of network configurability and management, which can be used to mitigate and manage threats to the network. Space communication networks have historically been restricted and circuit switching in these networks has been a manual process. This study evaluates the potential role of SDN in space communication networks from a networking security standpoint. The evaluation covers the networking security needs of spacecraft missions and their associated assets. The results from the evaluation lead to a risk assessment that identifies vulnerabilities in an SDN-based communications architecture. Security challenges introduced into the network from integrating SDN are also considered. A risk register summarizes the severity of the attack outcomes, as well as occurrence likelihood. The study identifies Denial-of-Service (DoS) attacks as a new threat (presently unmitigated by existing security controls) that would be prevalent in an SDN-based space communication environment. A Mininet-based emulation testbed is built to demonstrate the susceptibility of spacecraft flight software to a flooding DoS attack when on an interconnected SDN-managed network. This type of attack would be highly consequential to mission assets, and therefore SDN-based space communications would need to be resilient to such attacks. Future work will need to be performed to fully characterize DoS attack methods that can apply to the space communication scenario, as well as to devise a comprehensive DoS-resilient solution.

Baker, Dylan Z.↗

Perspectives on flood forecast-based early action and opportunities for Earth observations

This paper seeks to identify opportunities to integrate Earth observations (EO) into flood forecast-based early action and propose future directions for research and collaboration between EO and humanitarian communities. Forecast-based early action (FbA) is an approach to shift disaster response toward anticipation to mitigate impacts to at-risk communities; however, timely and accurate information is needed in the development of data-based triggers and thresholds for action. Therefore, this paper considers the readiness of a wide range of EO for flood monitoring and forecasting in the design, operations, and evaluation phases of FbA. The most significant opportunities for EO to inform FbA efforts lie in the design and evaluation phases, as EO can aid in the development of impact-based triggers. The EO products most readily applicable include precipitation, streamflow estimates, and exposure mapping, and those requiring the greatest amount of further research include vulnerability and impact assessments. This paper identifies collaboration opportunities for the EO and humanitarian communities to create tailored products, such as overlays combining flood extents with exposure maps. Such collaboration opportunities can be fostered by open data sharing, data verification efforts, and incentives for supporting boundary organizations capable of enabling the use of EO for FbA.

disasters↗

Advanced Technology and a Resilient Electric Grid

Making the electric grid cleaner and more resilient will require investing in a variety of new and emerging technologies. Advanced technologies including hydrogen, small modular nuclear reactors, and energy storage will all have a role to play in modernizing the electric grid. A diverse energy supply helps to keep the lights on and protects critical infrastructure, however it will also be important to assess the potential vulnerabilities and risks that come with unfamiliar and new technologies. This webinar will feature experts on resilience planning around advanced technologies from multiple sectors and share resources for states as they seek to modernize and decarbonize their electric grid.

advanced technology↗

A National Secure-by-Design Strategy

The US National Cybersecurity Strategy published March 2, 2023 uses plain language to communicate that the US is calling for a major change in how we prioritize the security of software systems used in critical infrastructure. It acknowledges that our current approach, which is essentially, “let the buyer beware,” leaves entities who are least able to assess or defend vulnerable software responsible for the impacts of designed-in weaknesses while the makers of the technology bear no liability. The strategy recommends a security-by-design approach, recommending that software vendors be held liable to uphold a “duty of care” to consumers and for systems to be designed to “fail safely and recover quickly” . For energy infrastructure, the strategy calls out the need to implement the National Cyber-Informed Engineering Strategy to achieve higher confidence security for energy infrastructures. The Idaho National Laboratory, a pioneer in cyber-informed engineering concepts, is at the forefront of organizations educating others in industry, academia, and government on how to apply these concepts to real-world challenges. In this brief, we'll outline some of the basic principles of security-by-design and offer examples of how, in a water sector context, they're being put into successful practice.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Cyber and Physical Security Analysis of GSI and Noventum Application for IoT Communications

We present our findings of the red team exercise conducted on the device and application developed by Guardian Sensors, Inc. (GSI) and Noventum. The app is used for situational awareness and control of photovoltaics (PV) and microgrid energy systems. The assessments performed are practical case scenarios that assess the risks and vulnerabilities posed by the app through targeted activities that could be engaged by an adversary. The assessment team’s results and recommendations are provided to inform on and mitigate the identified weaknesses to improve secure user authentication, connections, and communications. The recommendations in this report are not intended to be a security panacea but will add the desired defense-in-depth layer to securing communication of such interconnected systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Philadelphia Health & Air Quality: Assessing Land Surface Temperature, Vegetation Cover, and Compounding Vulnerability Factors to Identify High Priority Areas for Cooling Initiatives in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

Heat is the leading cause of weather-related deaths in the US, with heat-related hospitalizations increasing by 2-5% between 2001-2010. In Philadelphia alone, 137 heat-related deaths were recorded between 2010-2018, while a total of 18 daily temperature records have been set since 2010. Temperature is relatively higher in cities compared to rural areas, a phenomenon known as the urban heat island effect. This effect exaggerates daytime maximum temperatures and nighttime heat retention in urban areas, which increases heat exposure in urban environments and especially impacts vulnerable populations. Vulnerability to heat-related illnesses is determined by a combination of risk factors, such as demographics, socioeconomic status, and preexisting health conditions. This project supported the Philadelphia Department of Public Health and Office of Sustainability by identifying priority areas for cooling interventions, such as heat danger educational outreach and urban tree planting. The team developed heat vulnerability scores for each census tract within Philadelphia. Remotely sensed land surface temperature, normalized difference vegetation index, normalized difference built-up index, normalized difference water index, and albedo data were calculated from Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager/Thermal Infrared Sensor instruments. These variables were weighted against socioeconomic variables and preexisting health conditions using a principal component analysis. A total of 74 census tracts clustered were identified as high-risk areas for heat-related illnesses. 15 of these census tracts also had very low tree density (lower 20th percentile) and should be targeted for tree planting initiatives. The findings of this project will help target interventions to mitigate heat-related health issues and improve the overall wellness of Philadelphia residents.

Health & Air Quality↗