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At least 181 records · Page 10

EXONEST: Bayesian model selection applied to the detection and characterization of exoplanets via photometric variations

EXONEST is an algorithm dedicated to detecting and characterizing the photometric signatures of exoplanets, which include reflection and thermal emission, Doppler boosting, and ellipsoidal variations. Using Bayesian inference, we can test between competing models that describe the data as well as estimate model parameters. We demonstrate this approach by testing circular versus eccentric planetary orbital models, as well as testing for the presence or absence of four photometric effects. In addition to using Bayesian model selection, a unique aspect of EXONEST is the potential capability to distinguish between reflective and thermal contributions to the light curve. A case study is presented using Kepler data recorded from the transiting planet KOI-13b. By considering only the nontransiting portions of the light curve, we demonstrate that it is possible to estimate the photometrically relevant model parameters of KOI-13b. Furthermore, Bayesian model testing confirms that the orbit of KOI-13b has a detectable eccentricity.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Experimental Evidence that Stochasticity Contributes to Bacterial Composition and Functioning in a Decomposer Community

ABSTRACT Stochasticity emerging from random differences in replication, death, mutation, and dispersal is thought to alter the composition of ecological communities. However, the importance of stochastic effects remains somewhat speculative because stochasticity is not directly measured but is instead inferred from unexplained variations in beta-diversity. Here, we performed a field experiment to more directly disentangle the role of stochastic processes, environmental selection, and dispersal in the composition and functioning of a natural bacterial decomposer community in the field. To increase our ability to detect these effects, we reduced initial biological and environmental heterogeneity using replicate nylon litterbags in the field. We then applied two treatments: ambient/added precipitation and bacterial and fungal dispersal using “open” litterbags (made from 18.0-μm-pore-size mesh) (“open bacterial dispersal”) versus bacterial and fungal dispersal using “closed” litterbags (made from 22.0-μm-pore-size mesh) (“closed bacterial dispersal”). After 5 months, we assayed composition and functioning by the use of three subsamples from each litterbag to disentangle stochastic effects from residual variation. Our results indicate that stochasticity via ecological drift can contribute to beta-diversity in bacterial communities. However, residual variation, which had previously been included in stochasticity estimates, accounted for more than four times as much variability. At the same time, stochastic effects on beta-diversity were not attenuated at the functional level, as measured by genetic functional potential and extracellular enzyme activity. Finally, dispersal was found to interact with precipitation availability to influence the degree to which stochasticity contributed to functional variation. Together, our results demonstrate that the ability to quantify stochastic processes is key to understanding microbial diversity and its role in ecosystem functioning. IMPORTANCE Randomness can alter the diversity and composition of ecological communities. Such stochasticity may therefore obscure the relationship between the environment and community composition and hinder our ability to predict the relationship between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. This study investigated the role of stochastic processes, environmental selection, and dispersal in microbial composition and its functioning on an intact field community. To do this, we used a controlled and replicated experiment that was similar to that used to study population genetics in the laboratory. Our study showed that, while the stochastic effects on taxonomic composition are smaller than expected, the degree to which stochasticity contributes to variability in ecosystem processes may be much higher than previously assumed.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Observations of the Ca/+/ twilight airglow from intermediate layers of ionization

Optical and incoherent scatter radar techniques are applied to detect the presence of Ca(+) in lower thermospheric intermediate layers over Arecibo. The Arecibo 430 MHz radar is used to measure electron densities, and the altitude distribution and density of the calcium ion is inferred from the variation of twilight resonant scattering with solar depression angle. Ca(+) and electron column densities are compared, and results indicate that the composition of low-altitude intermediate layers is 2% Ca(+), which is consistent with rocket mass spectrometer measurements. Fe(+) and Mg(+) ultraviolet resonance lines are not detected from the ground due to ozone absorbing all radiation short of 3000 A, and measurements of the neutral iron resonance line at 3860 A show that an atmospheric continuum may result in overestimations of emission rates at high solar depression angles.

Tepley, C. A.↗

Nonaxisymmetric instabilities in thin self-gravitating rings and disks

The stability of geometrically thin self-gravitating rings and disks is studied by computing the eigenvalues and eigenfunctions of linearized normal mode oscillations in these systems. For the vertically averaged incompressible models and models of gaseous and stellar disks with softened gravity, analytic treatment is possible. The existence of oscillatory normal modes is established using a variational principle and infer instability using perturbation theory. Effects due to the Lindblad and corotation resonances are analyzed in detail. The distribution of the ratio of vorticity to surface density is important for determining the stability of the systems.

Papaloizou, John C. B.↗

Near infrared radiances observed by the UK C130 multi-channel radiometer during the marine stratocumulus IFO and preliminary comparison with model calculations

A preliminary analysis of some of the narrow band radiance data measured on the U.K. Meteorological Office's C130 aircraft during the marine stratocumulus intensive field observation of First ISCCP Regional Experiment (FIRE), San Diego 29 June to 18 July 1987, is presented. The data are compared with Monte Carlo calculations of the reflectance and transmittance of the cloud based upon the observed droplet size distribution. The main scientific question being addressed is whether there is any evidence of anomalous absorption within the cloud which had been observed in similar measurements (Rozenberg et al., 1974; Twomey and Cocks, 1982; Foot, 1988). The measurements also indicate the potential for remotely sensing cloud properties. The data and method of presentation discussed here clearly separates out clouds in terms of the size of the cloud droplets. All of the daytime C130 FIRE flights have been studied and are consistent with the data presented here. There appears to be no peculiarities that might arise, for example if pollution were to be a significant factor in determining cloud absorption. Variation in the inferred size parameters, r sub e, along runs are also very small.

Foot, J. S.↗

Geomagnetic field as a sensor of the large-scale structure of the interplanetary medium

Application of various geomagnetic data to restoration of the heliospheric current sheet configuration in the past is discussed. Technique for such a restoration is proposed based on analysis of information on the interplanetary magnetic field polarity inferred from diurnal variation of the geomagnetic field in polar regions outer solar corona pictures resulting from solar eclipse observations are concerned with the heliospheric sheet configuration. So, days of past solar eclipses must serve as a kind of reference points in the course of the heliospheric sheet reconstruction.

Gulyaev, R. A.↗

Aromatic Structure in Simulates Titan Aerosol

Observations of Titan by the Cassini Composite Infrared Spectrometer (CIRS) between 560 and 20 per centimeter (approximately 18 to 500 micrometers) have been used to infer the vertical variations of Titan's ice abundances, as well as those of the aerosol from the surface to an altitude of 300 km [1]. The aerosol has a broad emission feature centered approximately at 140 per centimeter (71 micrometers). As seen in Figure 1, this feature cannot be reproduced using currently available optical constants from laboratory-generated Titan aerosol analogs [2]. The far-IR is uniquely qualified for investigating low-energy vibrational motions within the lattice structures of COITIDlex aerosol. The feature observed by CIRS is broad, and does not likely arise from individual molecules, but rather is representative of the skeletal movements of macromolecules. Since Cassini's arrival at Titan, benzene (C6H6) has been detected in the atmosphere at ppm levels as well as ions that may be polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) [3]. We speculate that the feature may be a blended composite that can be identified with low-energy vibrations of two-dimensional lattice structures of large molecules, such as PAHs or nitrogenated aromatics. Such structures do not dominate the composition of analog materials generated from CH4 and N2 irradiation. We are performing studies forming aerosol analog via UV irradiation of aromatic precursors - specifically C6H6 - to understand how the unique chemical architecture of the products will influence the observable aerosol characteristics. The optical and chemical properties of the aromatic analog will be compared to those formed from CH4/N2 mixtures, with a focus on the as-yet unidentified far-IR absorbance feature. Preliminary results indicate that the photochemically-formed aromatic aerosol has distinct chemical composition, and may incorporate nitrogen either into the ring structure or adjoined chemical groups. These compositional differences are demonstrated in the aerosol mass spectra shown in Figure 2. The aromatic aerosol also demonstrates strong chemical reactivity when exposed to laboratory air, indicating substantial stored chemical potential. Oxidatoin and solubility studies wil be presented and implicatoins for prebiotic chemistry o nTitan will be discussed.

Trainer, Melissa G.↗

Titan Aerosol Analogs from Aromatic Precursors: Comparisons to Cassini CIRS Observations in the Thermal Infrared

Since Cassini's arrival at Titan, ppm levels of benzene (C6H6) as well as large positive ions, which may be polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). have been detected in the atmosphere. Aromatic molecules. photolytically active in the ultraviolet, may be important in the formation of the organic aerosol comprising the Titan haze layer even when present at low mixing ratios. Yet there have not been laboratory simulations exploring the impact of these molecules as precursors to Titan's organic aerosol. Observations of Titan by the Cassini Composite Infrared Spectrometer (CIRS) in the far-infrared (far-IR) between 560 and 20/cm (approx. 18 to 500 microns) and in the mid-infrared (mid-IR) between 1500 and 600/cm (approx. 7 to 17 microns) have been used to infer the vertical variations of Titan's aerosol from the surface to an altitude of 300 km in the far-IR and between 150 and 350 km in the mid-IR. Titan's aerosol has several observed emission features which cannot be reproduced using currently available optical constants from laboratory-generated Titan aerosol analogs, including a broad far-IR feature centered approximately at 140/cm (71 microns).

Trainer, Melissa G.↗

SUSIM/UARS observations of the 120 to 300 nm flux variations during the maximum of the solar cycle - Inferences for the 11-year cycle

Since October 1991, the Solar Ultraviolet Spectral Irradiance Monitor on board the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite has been measuring the solar spectral irradiance from 120 to 400 nm with low (5 nm) and moderate (1.1 nm) resolution on a daily basis. By scaling the modulation measured over four solar rotations to proxy indicators of solar activity, we estimate the amplitude of the solar ultraviolet irradiance variation during the 11-year activity cycle, extending the wavelength coverage of existing empirical variability models to 120 nm and distinguishing the variability of the emission lines from that of the underlying solar continuum. These estimates are compared with results from another empirical variability model and from direct measurements.

Lean, Judith↗

Estimating Regional Methane Emissions Through Atmospheric Measurements and Inverse Modeling

In this report we describe an enhanced methodology for performing stochastic Bayesian inversions of atmospheric trace gas inversions that allows the time variation of model parameters to be inferred. We use measurements of methane atmospheric mixing ratio made in Livermore, California along with atmospheric transport modeling and published prior estimates of emissions to estimate the regional emissions of methane and the temporal variations in inferred bias parameters. We compute Bayesian model evidence and continuous rank probability score to optimize the model with respect to temporal resolution. Using two different emissions inventories, we perform inversions for a series of models with increasing temporal resolution in the model bias representation. We show that temporal variation in the model bias can improve the model fit and can also increase the likelihood that the parameterization is appropriate, as measured by the Bayesian model evidence.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Seasonal Variations of Water Vapor in the Lower Stratosphere Inferred from ATMOS/ATLAS-3 Measurements of H2O and CH4

Stratospheric measurements of H2O and CH4 by the Atmospheric Trace Molecule Spectroscopy (ATMOS) Fourier transform spectrometer on the ATLAS-3 shuttle flight in November 1994 have been examined to investigate the altitude and geographic variability of H2O and the quantity H = (H2O + 2CH4) in the tropics and at mid-latitudes (8 to 49 deg N) in the northern hemisphere. The measurements indicate an average value of 7.24 +/- 0.44 ppmv for H between altitudes of about 18 to 35 km, corresponding to an annual average water vapor mixing ratio of 3.85 +/- 0.29 ppmv entering the stratosphere. The H2O vertical distribution in the tropics exhibits a wave-like structure in the 16- to 25-km altitude range, suggestive of seasonal variations in the water vapor transported from the troposphere to the stratosphere. The hygropause appears to be nearly coincident with the tropopause at the time of observations. This is consistent with the phase of the seasonal cycle of H2O in the lower stratosphere, since the ATMOS observations were made in November when the H2O content of air injected into the stratosphere from the troposphere is decreasing from its seasonal peak in July-August.

Abbas, M. M.↗

Seasonal Variations of Water Vapor in the Lower Stratosphere Inferred from ATMOS/ATLAS-3 Measurements of H2O and CH4

Stratospheric measurements of H2O and CH4 by the Atmospheric Trace Molecule Spectroscopy (ATMOS) Fourier transform spectrometer on the ATLAS-3 shuttle flight in November 1994 have been examined to investigate the altitude and geographic variability of H2O and the quantity H = (H2O + 2CH4) in the tropics and at mid-latitudes (8 to 49 deg N) in the northern hemisphere. The measurements indicate an average value of 7.24 plus or minus 0.44 ppmv for H between altitudes of about 18 to 35 km, corresponding to an annual average water vapor mixing ratio of 3.85 plus or minus 0.29 ppmv entering the stratosphere. The H2O vertical distribution in the tropics exhibits a wave-like structure in the 16- to 25-km altitude range, suggestive of seasonal variations in the water vapor transported from the troposphere to the stratosphere. The hygropause appears to be nearly coincident with the tropopause at the time of observations. This is consistent with the phase of the seasonal cycle of H2O in the lower stratosphere, since the ATMOS observations were made in November when the H2O content of air injected into the stratosphere from the troposphere is decreasing from its seasonal peak in July - August.

Abbas, M. M.↗

Inferences about magma sources and mantle structure from variations of Nd-143/Nd-144

Continental flood basalts and mid-ocean ridge (MOR) tholeiitic basalts have distinctly different Nd-143/Nd-144 which may permit a priori distinction between continental and oceanic igneous rocks. Initial Nd-143/Nd-144 of continental igneous rocks through time fall on a Sm/Nd evolution curve with chondritic REE abundance ratio. These observations indicate that many continental igneous rocks are derived from a reservoir with chondritic REE pattern which may represent primary material remaining since the formation of the earth. Oceanic igneous rocks are derived from a different ancient reservoir which has Sm/Nd higher than chondritic. Initial Nd-143/Nd-144 and Sr-87/Sr-86 in young basalts from both oceans and continents show a strong correlation suggesting that Sm-Nd and Rb-Sr fractionation events in the mantle may be correlative and caused by the same process. From this correlation Rb/Sr for the earth is inferred to be 0.029.

Depaolo, D. J.↗

Soil incubation methods lead to large differences in inferred methane production temperature sensitivity

Abstract Quantifying the temperature sensitivity of methane (CH 4 ) production is crucial for predicting how wetland ecosystems will respond to climate warming. Typically, the temperature sensitivity (often quantified as a Q 10 value) is derived from laboratory incubation studies and then used in biogeochemical models. However, studies report wide variation in incubation-inferred Q 10 values, with a large portion of this variation remaining unexplained. Here we applied observations in a thawing permafrost peatland (Stordalen Mire) and a well-tested process-rich model ( ecosys ) to interpret incubation observations and investigate controls on inferred CH 4 production temperature sensitivity. We developed a field-storage-incubation modeling approach to mimic the full incubation sequence, including field sampling at a particular time in the growing season, refrigerated storage, and laboratory incubation, followed by model evaluation. We found that CH 4 production rates during incubation are regulated by substrate availability and active microbial biomass of key microbial functional groups, which are affected by soil storage duration and temperature. Seasonal variation in substrate availability and active microbial biomass of key microbial functional groups led to strong time-of-sampling impacts on CH 4 production. CH 4 production is higher with less perturbation post-sampling, i.e. shorter storage duration and lower storage temperature. We found a wide range of inferred Q 10 values (1.2–3.5), which we attribute to incubation temperatures, incubation duration, storage duration, and sampling time. We also show that Q 10 values of CH 4 production are controlled by interacting biological, biochemical, and physical processes, which cause the inferred Q 10 values to differ substantially from those of the component processes. Terrestrial ecosystem models that use a constant Q 10 value to represent temperature responses may therefore predict biased soil carbon cycling under future climate scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Seasonal Variations of Water Vapor in the Lower Stratosphere Inferred from ATMOS/ATLAS-3 Measurements of H(sub 2)O and CH(sub 4)

Stratospheric measurements of H(sub 2)O and CH(sub 4) by the Atmospheric Trace Molecule Spectroscopy (ATMOS) Fourier transform spectrometer on the ATLAS-3 Shuttle flight in November 1994 have been used to investigate the altitude and geographic variability of H(sub 2)O and the quantity H(Eta?) = (H(sub 2)O + CH(sub 4)) in the tropics and at mid-latitudes (8-49in the northern hemisphere.

H2O CH4 ATMOS ATLAS-3 stratospheric water vapor↗

Spatial Variation in Erosion Rates in Mars Equatorial Regions Inferred from Ejecta Retention of 1-3 Km Diameter Craters

The modification of impact craters has long been used to infer the geomorphic forcing on Mars [1], as well as estimate the spatial and temporal variability of this erosion and gradation [e.g., 2]. Here, we studied the population of small primary craters (1-3 km) to understand differences in ejecta retention across equatorial Mars. Specifically, we evaluated whether craters in our study population had observable ejecta deposits (defined on the basis of distinct tone or texture with respect to their surroundings).This is a proxy for the resurfacing rate because only relatively fresh craters retain their ejecta deposits. More broadly, this is part of a larger project we are undertaking [3] to examine crater morphometry and other characteristics from CTX-derived digital terrain models (DTMs), augmented by qualitative observations.

Fassett, C. I.↗

Volatiles in Chainpur chondrules

A study of volatile element concentrations in individual chondrules in the Chainpur LL3 chondrite is presented. Volatile elements differing in geochemical behavior tended to vary randomly and correlated variations were observed only for those elements inferred to occupy similar mineral sites. Variations in Co and Ni in kamacite show that metal in chondrule interiors has not approached equilibrium, and that postformational element distribution has mainly altered siderophile concentrations in surface metal grains, and has probably left ionic species unaltered. Etching to remove 3 to 5% of the chondrule dissolved siderophiles, enhanced Zn and Na volatiles relative to nonvolatile Cr in the etch, and produced a large Cd enhancement. If metamorphic redistribution of nonsiderophile volatiles was neglible, their high concentrations are inconsistent with chondrule formation by direct condensation, and models involving sudden melting of preexisting solids can explain the observations but require rapid cooling to prevent volatile loss.

Grossman, J. N.↗