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File Specification for GEOS-5 FP-IT (Forward Processing for Instrument Teams)

The GEOS-5 FP-IT Atmospheric Data Assimilation System (GEOS-5 ADAS) uses an analysis developed jointly with NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), which allows the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) to take advantage of the developments at NCEP and the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA). The GEOS-5 AGCM uses the finite-volume dynamics (Lin, 2004) integrated with various physics packages (e.g, Bacmeister et al., 2006), under the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) including the Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM) (e.g., Koster et al., 2000). The GSI analysis is a three-dimensional variational (3DVar) analysis applied in grid-point space to facilitate the implementation of anisotropic, inhomogeneous covariances (e.g., Wu et al., 2002; Derber et al., 2003). The GSI implementation for GEOS-5 FP-IT incorporates a set of recursive filters that produce approximately Gaussian smoothing kernels and isotropic correlation functions. The GEOS-5 ADAS is documented in Rienecker et al. (2008). More recent updates to the model are presented in Molod et al. (2011). The GEOS-5 system actively assimilates roughly 2 × 10(exp 6) observations for each analysis, including about 7.5 × 10(exp 5) AIRS radiance data. The input stream is roughly twice this volume, but because of the large volume, the data are thinned commensurate with the analysis grid to reduce the computational burden. Data are also rejected from the analysis through quality control procedures designed to detect, for example, the presence of cloud. To minimize the spurious periodic perturbations of the analysis, GEOS-5 FP-IT uses the Incremental Analysis Update (IAU) technique developed by Bloom et al. (1996). More details of this procedure are given in Appendix A. The analysis is performed at a horizontal resolution of 0.625-degree longitude by 0.5-degree latitude and at 72 levels, extending to 0.01 hPa. All products are generated at the native resolution of the horizontal grid. The majority of data products are time-averaged, but four instantaneous products are also available. Hourly data intervals are used for two-dimensional products, while 3-hourly intervals are used for three-dimensional products. These may be on the model's native 72-layer vertical grid or at 42 pressure surfaces extending to 0.1 hPa. This document describes the gridded output files produced by the GMAO near real-time operational GEOS-5 FP-IT processing in support of the EOS instrument teams. Additional details about variables listed in this file specification can be found in a separate document, the GEOS-5 File Specification Variable Definition Glossary.

3D Var↗

The Sensitivity of Variational Bayesian Neural Network Performance to Hyperparameters

In scientific applications, predictive modeling is often of limited use without accurate uncertainty quantification (UQ) to indicate when a model may be extrapolating or when more data needs to be collected. Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) produce predictive uncertainty by propagating uncertainty in neural network (NN) weights and offer the promise of obtaining not only an accurate predictive model but also accurate UQ. However, in practice, obtaining accurate UQ with BNNs is difficult due in part to the approximations used for model training (such as those made in variational inference) and in part to the need to choose a suitable set of hyperparameters; these hyperparameters outnumber those needed for traditional NNs and often have opaque effects on the results. We aim to shed light on the effects of hyperparameter choices for variational BNNs by performing a global sensitivity analysis of variational BNN performance under varying hyperparameter settings. Our results indicate that many of the hyperparameters interact with each other to affect both predictive accuracy and UQ. For improved usage of variational BNNs in real-world applications, we suggest that thorough hyperparameter tuning, including tuning of prior hyperparameters and loss function parameters, is essential for accurate UQ in variational BNNs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Variational Methods in Design Optimization and Sensitivity Analysis for Two-Dimensional Euler Equations

Variational methods (VM) sensitivity analysis employed to derive the costate (adjoint) equations, the transversality conditions, and the functional sensitivity derivatives. In the derivation of the sensitivity equations, the variational methods use the generalized calculus of variations, in which the variable boundary is considered as the design function. The converged solution of the state equations together with the converged solution of the costate equations are integrated along the domain boundary to uniquely determine the functional sensitivity derivatives with respect to the design function. The application of the variational methods to aerodynamic shape optimization problems is demonstrated for internal flow problems at supersonic Mach number range. The study shows, that while maintaining the accuracy of the functional sensitivity derivatives within the reasonable range for engineering prediction purposes, the variational methods show a substantial gain in computational efficiency, i.e., computer time and memory, when compared with the finite difference sensitivity analysis.

Ibrahim, A. H.↗

Monte Carlo Perturbation Analysis of Fuel Temperature Variations in the MCNP Model of the Annular Core Research Reactor

The Annular Core Research Reactor (ACRR) Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) model is used by ACRR reactor operators and experiment designers at Sandia National Laboratories for a variety of computational calculations ranging from reactor kinetics parameter estimates and safety analyses to experimental planning. To understand the dominant source of uncertainty within the MCNP model, perturbations in temperature were applied to individual ACRR MCNP fuel rods. Fuel rod temperatures were randomly sampled from a uniform distribution from operational temperatures to quantify temperature-related uncertainty effects. Stochastic mixing was used to blend the cross sections of the desired temperatures using the MCNP continuous and Thermal Neutron Scattering Treatment [S(α,β)] libraries in ENDF/B-VII.1. Furthermore, this uncertainty analysis produced a 640 row × 640 column correlation and covariance matrix of the neutron energy spectra. Positive covariance was produced around the 1-MeV region and the 0.2-eV region. Correlation was found in the thermal and fast energy regions, but no correlation was observed in the slowing-down energy region because interactions in this region are not dominated by fuel.

ACRR↗

Analysis of Vegetation Index Variations and the Asian Monsoon Climate

Vegetation growth depends on local climate. Significant anthropogenic land cover and land use change activities over Asia have changed vegetation distribution as well. On the other hand, vegetation is one of the important land surface variables that influence the Asian Monsoon variability through controlling atmospheric energy and water vapor conditions. In this presentation, the mean and variations of vegetation index of last decade at regional scale resolution (5km and higher) from MODIS have been analyzed. Results indicate that the vegetation index has been reduced significantly during last decade over fast urbanization areas in east China, such as Yangtze River Delta, where local surface temperatures were increased significantly in term of urban heat Island. The relationship between vegetation Index and climate (surface temperature, precipitation) over a grassland in northern Asia and over a woody savannas in southeast Asia are studied. In supporting Monsoon Asian Integrated Regional Study (MAIRS) program, the data in this study have been integrated into Giovanni, the online visualization and analysis system at NASA GES DISC. Most images in this presentation are generated from Giovanni system.

Shen, Sunhung↗

Partial spline models for the inclusion of tropopause and frontal boundary information in otherwise smooth two- and three-dimensional objective analysis

A new method, based on partial spline models, is developed for including specified discontinuities in otherwise smooth two- and three-dimensional objective analyses. The method is appropriate for including tropopause height information in two- and three-dimensinal temperature analyses, using the O'Sullivan-Wahba physical variational method for analysis of satellite radiance data, and may in principle be used in a combined variational analysis of observed, forecast, and climate information. A numerical method for its implementation is described and a prototype two-dimensional analysis based on simulated radiosonde and tropopause height data is shown. The method may also be appropriate for other geophysical problems, such as modeling the ocean thermocline, fronts, discontinuities, etc.

Shiau, Jyh-Jen↗

Variational and phase response analysis for limit cycles with hard boundaries, with applications to neuromechanical control problems

Motor systems show an overall robustness, but because they are highly nonlinear, understanding how they achieve robustness is difficult. In many rhythmic systems, robustness against perturbations involves response of both the shape and the timing of the trajectory. This makes the study of robustness even more challenging. To understand how a motor system produces robust behaviors in a variable environment, we consider a neuromechanical model of motor patterns in the feeding apparatus of the marine mollusk Aplysia californica (Shaw et al. in J Comput Neurosci 38(1):25–51, 2015; Lyttle et al. in Biol Cybern 111(1):25–47, 2017). We established in (Wang et al. in SIAM J Appl Dyn Syst 20(2):701–744, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1137/20M1344974) the tools for studying combined shape and timing responses of limit cycle systems under sustained perturbations and here apply them to study robustness of the neuromechanical model against increased mechanical load during swallowing. Interestingly, we discover that nonlinear biomechanical properties confer resilience by immediately increasing resistance to applied loads. In contrast, the effect of changed sensory feedback signal is significantly delayed by the firing rates’ hard boundary properties. Our analysis suggests that sensory feedback contributes to robustness in swallowing primarily by shifting the timing of neural activation involved in the power stroke of the motor cycle (retraction). This effect enables the system to generate stronger retractor muscle forces to compensate for the increased load, and hence achieve strong robustness. The approaches that we are applying to understanding a neuromechanical model in Aplysia, and the results that we have obtained, are likely to provide insights into the function of other motor systems that encounter changing mechanical loads and hard boundaries, both due to mechanical and neuronal firing properties.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Fracture mechanics analysis of composite microcracking - Experimental results in fatigue

The Nairn (1989) variational mechanics analysis, which yields the energy release rate of a microcrack's formation between two existing microcracks, has proven useful in the fracture mechanics interpretation of cross-ply laminates' microcracking. Attention is presently given to the application of this energy release rate analysis to a fracture mechanics-based interpretation of microcrack formation during fatigue loading, for the case of fatigue experiments on three layups of Avimid K/IM6 laminates and four layups of Fiberite 934/T300 laminates. The single master Paris-law plot onto which the data from all layups of a given material system fall is claimed to offer a complete characterization of that system's microcrack-formation resistance during fatigue loading.

Nairn, J. A.↗

Master plot analysis of microcracking in graphite/epoxy and graphite/PEEK laminates

We used a variational stress analysis and an energy release rate failure criterion to construct a master plot analysis of matrix microcracking. In the master plot, the results for all laminates of a single material are predicted to fall on a single line whose slope gives the microcracking toughness of the material. Experimental results from 18 different layups of AS4/3501-6 laminates show that the master plot analysis can explain all observations. In particular, it can explain the differences between microcracking of central 90 deg plies and of free-surface 90 deg plies. Experimental results from two different AS4/PEEK laminates tested at different temperatures can be explained by a modified master plot that accounts for changes in the residual thermal stresses. Finally, we constructed similar master plot analyses for previous literature microcracking models. All microcracking theories that ignore the thickness dependence of the stresses gave poor results.

Nairn, John A.↗

Tracking the Sun: Pricing and Design Trends for Distributed Photovoltaic Systems in the United States (2023 Edition) [Slides]

Berkeley Lab’s annual Tracking the Sun report describes trends among grid-connected, distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) and paired PV+storage systems in the United States. For the purpose of this report, distributed solar includes residential systems, roof-mounted non-residential systems, and ground-mounted systems up to 5 MW-AC. Ground-mounted systems larger than 5 MW-AC are covered in Berkeley Lab’s companion annual report, Utility-Scale Solar. The latest edition of the report is based on 3.2 million systems installed through year-end 2022, representing more than 80% of systems installed to date. The report describes and discusses key trends related to: -Project characteristics, including system size, module efficiencies, prevalence of paired PV with storage, use of module-level power electronics, third-party ownership, mounting configurations, panel orientation, and non-residential customer segmentation ownership -Median installed-price trends, both nationally and by state -Variability in pricing according to system size, state, installer, equipment type, and other factors, relying on both descriptive and econometric analysis The report also includes a multi-variate regression analysis to estimate the effects of key pricing drivers for residential systems installed in 2022.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Genomic Analysis of the Natural Variation of Fatty Acid Composition in Seed Oils of Camelina sativa

Camelina sativa is an oilseed crop that has shown strong promise as a biofuel feedstock. The profile of fatty acids greatly influences the oil quality; however, genetic mechanisms that determine the natural variation of fatty acid composition in camelina are not fully understood. A genome wide association study (GWAS) was performed to uncover genetic loci that may contribute to the contents of major fatty acids such as oleic and linolenic acids in camelina seed. Two approaches were taken to improve the GWAS efficiency. First, growing a diversity panel of 212 accessions in four locations and two nitrogen fertilization conditions revealed great variation in fatty acid contents in seeds. Second, using an improved reference genome, abundant markers, including 203,320 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and 99,067 insertions/deletions (indels), were developed, which refined the population structure of the diversity panel. GWAS resulted in 118 genetic markers across 31 trait/treatment conditions. Closely linked markers were determined based on linkage decay and by comparing secondarily associated markers when highly associated ones were removed. Candidate genes were examined by comparing the pangenomes of 12 high-quality reference genomes. This study provides new resources to understand seed lipid metabolism and improve camelina oils through molecular breeding.

Life Sciences & Biomedicine - Other Topics↗

An Analysis of the Spatial Variations in the Relationship Between Built Environment and Severe Crashes

Traffic crashes significantly contribute to global fatalities, particularly in urban areas, highlighting the need to evaluate the relationship between urban environments and traffic safety. This study extends former spatial modeling frameworks by drawing paths between global models, including spatial lag (SLM), and spatial error (SEM), and local models, including geographically weighted regression (GWR), multi-scale geographically weighted regression (MGWR), and multi-scale geographically weighted regression with spatially lagged dependent variable (MGWRL). Utilizing the proposed framework, this study analyzes severe traffic crashes in relation to urban built environments using various spatial regression models within Leon County, Florida. According to the results, SLM outperforms OLS, SEM, and GWR models. Local models with lagged dependent variables outperform both the global and generic versions of the local models in all performance measures, whereas MGWR and MGWRL outperform GWR and GWRL. Local models performed better than global models, showing spatial non-stationarity; so, the relationship between the dependent and independent variables varies over space. The better performance of models with lagged dependent variables signifies that the spatial distribution of severe crashes is correlated. Finally, the better performance of multi-scale local models than classical local models indicates varying influences of independent variables with different bandwidths. According to the MGWRL model, census block groups close to the urban area with higher population, higher education level, and lower car ownership rates have lower crash rates. On the contrary, motor vehicle percentage for commuting is found to have a negative association with severe crash rate, which suggests the locality of the mentioned associations.

Alisan, Onur (ORCID:0000000193113984)↗

Analysis of daily latitude variations

The daily latitude measurements of the International polar motion service are analyzed. The results indicate that the annual polar oscillation is probably due to local phenomena with amplitudes varying from 0.05 to 0.15 min. Within the resolution of the residuals (150 cm), there is no indication of the sharp changes which might be associated with earthquake effects. Then, applying Schuster's test to a periodogram of the residuals indicates that there are probably several processes occurring at amplitudes between 0.007 and 0.03 min whose solution awaits a more precise measurement technique.

Graber, M. A.↗

Analysis of daily latitude variations

The daily latitude measurements of the International Polar Motion Service are analyzed. The annual oscillation in the data was modeled by separate oscillations in each observatory's latitude data. The separate oscillations varied in amplitude from 0.05 sec to 0.15 sec with standard deviations of about 0.007 sec. Within the resolution of the latitude residuals (150 cm), there is no indication of the sharp changes which might be associated with earthquake effects. Then, applying Schuster's test to a periodogram of the residuals indicates that there are probably several processes occurring at amplitudes between 0.007 sec and 0.03 sec whose solution awaits a more precise measurement technique.

Graber, M. A.↗

Cross-Correlation Analysis of UV Profile Variations and Nonradial Pulsations in Be Stars

This study is an investigation of the role of photospheric nonradial pulsations in the mass loss processes of Be stars. Some 18 Be stars were the focus of intensive, multi-wavelength campaigns between 1985 and 1996 with the NASA/ESA International Ultraviolet Explorer Satellite (IUE) . The campaigns were designed to monitor variations in the UV flux and stellar wind lines with near simultaneous, high signal-to-noise, optical spectroscopy of photospheric lines. The high quality, ground-based spectra were required to record the subtle, blue-to-red moving bump patterns in spectral line profiles that result from nonradial pulsations. We found that the same fine variations in the UV photospheric lines can be extracted from noisy IUE spectra by cross-correlating each target spectrum with a narrow-lined standard spectrum. Time series analyses of the cross-correlation functions then reveal the periodic signals, amplitudes, phases, and modal identifications of the pulsations. Our goals are to compare such results from UV and optical time series in order to model the stellar photospheric temperature and velocity fluctuations, and to search for correlated UV wind line variations to determine whether there is a connection between pulsation and mass loss.

Gies, Douglas R.↗