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At least 181 records · Page 10

Imprecise global sensitivity analysis using bayesian multimodel inference and importance sampling

Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) aims to understand the relative importance of uncertain input variables to model response. Conventional GSA involves calculating sensitivity (Sobol’) indices for a model with known model parameter distributions. However, model parameters are affected by aleatory and epistemic uncertainty, with the latter often caused by lack of data. In this paper, we propose a new framework to quantify uncertainty in probability model-form and model parameters resulting from small datasets and integrate these uncertainties into Sobol’ index estimates. First, the process establishes, through Bayesian multimodel inference, a set of candidate probability models and their associated probabilities. Imprecise Sobol’ indices are calculated from these probability models using an importance sampling reweighting approach. This results in probabilistic Sobol’ indices, whose distribution characterizes uncertainty in the sensitivity resulting from small dataset size. The imprecise Sobol’ indices thus provide a measure of confidence in the sensitivity estimate and, moreover, can be used to inform data collection efforts targeted to minimize the impact of uncertainties. Through an example studying the parameters of a Timoshenko beam, we show that these probabilistic Sobol’ indices converge to the true/deterministic Sobol’ indices as the dataset size increases and hence, distribution-form uncertainty reduces. The approach is then applied to assess the sensitivity of the out-of-plane properties of an E-glass fiber composite material to its constituent properties. This second example illustrates the approach for an important class of materials with wide-ranging applications when data may be lacking for some input parameters.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Quantifying spatiotemporal variability in occupant exposure to an indoor airborne contaminant with an uncertain source location

Well-mixed zone models are often employed to compute indoor air quality and occupant exposures. While effective, a potential downside to assuming instantaneous, perfect mixing is underpredicting exposures to high intermittent concentrations within a room. When such cases are of concern, more spatially resolved models, like computational-fluid dynamics methods, are used for some or all of the zones. But, these models have higher computational costs and require more input information. A preferred compromise would be to continue with a multi-zone modeling approach for all rooms, but with a better assessment of the spatial variability within a room. Here to do so, we present a quantitative method for estimating a room's spatiotemporal variability, based on influential room parameters. Our proposed method disaggregates variability into the variability in a room's average concentration, and the spatial variability within the room relative to that average. This enables a detailed assessment of how variability in particular room parameters impacts the uncertain occupant exposures. To demonstrate the utility of this method, we simulate contaminant dispersion for a variety of possible source locations. We compute breathing-zone exposure during the releasing (source is active) and decaying (source is removed) periods. Using CFD methods, we found after a 30 minutes release the average standard deviation in the spatial distribution of exposure was approximately 28% of the source average exposure, whereas variability in the different average exposures was lower, only 10% of the total average. We also find that although uncertainty in the source location leads to variability in the average magnitude of transient exposure, it does not have a particularly large influence on the spatial distribution during the decaying period, or on the average contaminant removal rate. By systematically characterizing a room's average concentration, its variability, and the spatial variability within the room important insights can be gained as to how much uncertainty is introduced into occupant exposure predictions by assuming a uniform in-room contaminant concentration. We discuss how the results of these characterizations can improve our understanding of the uncertainty in occupant exposures relative to well-mixed models.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Impact of a dynamic grid mix and climate on operational carbon emissions modeling for different building typologies and climate zones

Calculating operational carbon emissions through a building’s lifecycle is complex due to the dynamic nature of influencing factors such as climate and energy grid mix. This paper introduces a novel methodology for modeling 30-year operational carbon impacts of buildings and applies this method to mid-rise office and residential typologies across various US climate zones. The method accounts for these temporal variabilities using new and scarcely cited data sources. Key findings indicate that future changes in the climate, while impactful, play a relatively modest role in operational carbon emissions compared to significant reductions with modeling scenarios using the projected decarbonization of the electricity grid. Here, the study also finds that using annual, month-hourly, or hourly grid emission factors have a minimal impact on carbon accounting, except in certain climates and program types where emission patterns do not align with a building’s energy consumption. Warmer climates like Miami, Florida and Tucson, Arizona, which rely heavily on cooling, demonstrate larger variations in carbon emissions when using higher temporal resolution emission factors. Ultimately, this study underscores the critical role of grid decarbonization in reducing long-term emissions and the importance of incorporating this variable in life cycle assessment (LCA) modeling.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Subdecadal Holocene Warm-Season Temperature Variability in Central Europe Recorded by Biochemical Varves

Paleoclimate data provide important information about the character of natural climate variability. However, records with sufficient length and resolution to resolve high-frequency (decadal-scale) variability across the Holocene are scarce. We present a 10,800-year reconstruction of spring and summer temperature at three-year resolution based on biochemical varves from Lake $\dot{Z}abi$$\acute{n}skie$, Poland. The reconstruction is based on Ca/Ti ratio, which are significantly correlated with instrumental spring and summer temperature spanning 240 years. Major climate events of the Holocene period are represented in the reconstruction, including the Holocene Thermal Maximum, 8.2 ka Event, Medieval Climate Anomaly, and Little Ice Age. A low-frequency 8,000-year decreasing trend in warm-season temperatures is driven by declining summer insolation. Temperature variability is highest during the early Holocene, likely related to warmer and drier conditions. The rate of warming during the past 90 years is extremely unusual, if not unprecedented for the Holocene, based on our reconstruction.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The Freundlich isotherm equation best represents phosphate sorption across soil orders and land use types in tropical soils of Puerto Rico

Biomass production in the lowland wet tropical forest is greater than in any other biome, and it is typically limited by soil phosphorus (P) availability. However, the mechanisms involved in the P cycle remain poorly represented in Earth System Models (ESMs). Soil P sorption processes are key in the P cycle and for understanding the extent of P limitation for plant productivity. Currently, a few ESMs include isotherm equations to model these processes. Although the Langmuir equation is widely cited, other isotherm equations may better describe sorption in tropical soils. Here, we use a diverse range of soil samples from Puerto Rico to test the validity of the Langmuir, Freundlich, and Temkin equation. We found that across four soil orders (Inceptisols, Mollisols, Oxisols, Ultisols), and forested and cultivated land use types, the Freundlich equation best represented soil P sorption. Furthermore, the Langmuir and the Temkin equations poorly represent soil P adsorption, especially at low P concentrations. Specifically, the Langmuir equation underestimated soil P adsorption by 40% and the Temkin equation overestimated adsorption by 76%. We also found, as expected, that soil clay content and pH were the most important parameters explaining the variability of the Freundlich (K f ) constant. Greater clay content and lower pH, common in highly weathered Ultisols and Oxisols which are abundant in the tropics, led to greater K f values. Overall, our results suggest that a diversity of soils can prompt underestimation of P sorption when using the Langmuir isotherm, which leads to an overestimation of available P that can have repercussions on ESM predictions of the P cycle and tropical forest productivity.

Earth system models↗

Concrete shrinkage and creep under drying/wetting cycles

Concrete shrinkage and creep under variable hydric conditions are important factors for the safety and durability of concrete especially in nuclear reactor or nuclear waste storage background. A large (and long – more than 900 days) experimental campaign, conducted on two different concretes, has therefore been designed to study the strains of non loaded and loaded concretes submitted to drying and liquid water imbibition cycles. For the purposes of comparison, concrete strains and mass variations during drying only (50% RH) and/or following cycles of drying/rewetting were also recorded. This allowed the identification of desiccation shrinkage, basic creep and drying creep at 10 MPa of axial stress. Important results were found and have shown that the final mass and strain are not deeply modified by the introduction of a rewetting phase either for a loaded or a non loaded material.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Dynamic energy system modeling using hybrid physics-based and machine learning encoder–decoder models

Three model configurations are presented for multi-step time series predictions of the heat absorbed by the water and steam in a thermal power plant. The models predict over horizons of 2, 4, and 6 steps into the future, where each step is a 5-minute increment. The evaluated models are a pure machine learning model, a novel hybrid machine learning and physics-based model, and the hybrid model with an incomplete dataset. The hybrid model deconstructs the machine learning into individual boiler heat absorption units: economizer, water wall, superheater, and reheater. Each configuration uses a gated recurrent unit (GRU) or a GRU-based encoder–decoder as the deep learning architecture. Mean squared error is used to evaluate the models compared to target values. The encoder–decoder architecture is over 11% more accurate than the GRU only models. The hybrid model with the incomplete dataset highlights the importance of the manipulated variables to the system. The hybrid model, compared to the pure machine learning model, is over 10% more accurate on average over 20 iterations of each model. Automatic differentiation is applied to the hybrid model to perform a local sensitivity analysis to identify the most impactful of the 72 manipulated variables on the heat absorbed in the boiler. The models and sensitivity analyses are used in a discussion about optimizing the thermal power plant.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Systematic Evaluation of Atmospheric Forcing, Surface Datasets, and Mesh Effects on Kilometer-Scale Land Surface and River Modeling

Earth system models are advancing toward kilometer-scale resolution to capture local climate impacts and extremes. High-resolution land and river modeling depends on multiple factors, including mesh, surface datasets, and atmospheric forcing, but their relative effects at kilometer scales remain unquantified. We evaluated five Energy Exascale Earth System Model land and river configurations over the Mid-Atlantic region using two mesh (1/8° structured versus variable-resolution unstructured mesh), two surface datasets (default versus newly developed), and three atmospheric forcings (NLDAS2, MSWX, GSWP). Evaluation against satellite, reanalysis, and in situ benchmarks across water, energy, and carbon cycles quantifies how these factors affect model performance. Forcing selection produces the largest bias reductions (12-99% across variables), followed by surface datasets (7-75%) and mesh (up to 21%). Forcing effects vary by variable, with MSWX reducing biases for snow water equivalent, evapotranspiration, albedo, temperature, and gross primary productivity, GSWP for snow cover and runoff, and NLDAS for soil moisture and streamflow. The use of newly developed surface datasets improves gross primary productivity (58% bias reduction) and evapotranspiration but increase soil moisture and albedo biases due to current modeling limitations. Variable-resolution unstructured mesh improves the simulation of small-basin streamflow through better capturing drainage networks, though mesh minimally affects other land variables. These findings provide important guidance for high-resolution modeling development and actionable science.

Land and River modeling↗

Identifying schools at high-risk for elevated lead in drinking water using only publicly available data

Estimating the risk of lead contamination of schools' drinking water at the State level is a complex, important, and unexplored challenge. Variable water quality among water systems and changes in water chemistry during distribution affect lead dissolution rates from pipes and fittings. In addition, the locations of lead-bearing plumbing materials are uncertain. We tested the capability of six machine learning models to predict the likelihood of lead contamination of drinking water at the schools' taps using only publicly available datasets. The predictive features used in the models correspond to those with a proven correlation to the dominant, but commonly unavailable, factors that govern lead leaching: the presence of lead-bearing plumbing materials and water quality conducive to lead corrosion. By combining water chemistry data from public reports, socioeconomic information from the US census, and spatial features using Geographic Information Systems, we trained and tested models to estimate the likelihood of lead contaminated tap water in over 8,000 schools across California and Massachusetts. Our best-performing model was a Random Forest, with a 10-fold cross validation score of 0.88 for Massachusetts and 0.78 for California using the average Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (ROC AUC) metric. The model was then used to assign a lead leaching risk category to half of the schools across California (the other half was used for training). There was good agreement between the modeled risk categories and the actual lead leaching outcomes for every school; however, the model overestimated the lead leaching risk in up to 17% of the schools. This model is the first of its kind to offer a tool to predict the risk of lead leaching in schools at the State level. Further use of this model can help deploy limited resources more effectively to prevent childhood lead exposure from school drinking water.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

Parameterizing Convective Organization Effects With a Moisture-PDF Approach in Climate Models: Concept and a Regional Case Simulation

We propose a parameterization scheme of convective organization effects based on a moisture-distribution approach, which can reflect aggregation of convective cells within a model grid as well as the interaction between convection and spatial heterogeneity in free-troposphere moisture. With this concept, convective cells in an aggregated state are surrounded by air that is moister than the grid-mean condition, which provides a “shielding” effect favorable for deeper convective updrafts. Such effects are represented quantitatively via utilizing a schematic diagram about the geometric interpretation of convective cluster, dry area, and their contact area, in which both the convective cluster size and dry area fraction increase during the development of convection. Our sensitivity analyses indicate that the new scheme performs well in capturing the mean precipitation features. Excluding the convective organization effects in the model leads to a considerable reduction in the simulated precipitation magnitude. Notably, there exists an inverse relationship between background mean moisture condition and sub-grid moisture variability for a given rain rate, suggesting that with a high spatial heterogeneity in free-troposphere moisture, convection can still develop and maintain its strength under relatively dry background conditions, consistent with the convection-permitting model simulation. Overall, our new parameterization of convective organization effects can successfully reproduce the relationship between precipitation and sub-grid moisture variability, which is a missing element in traditional convection parameterization schemes but important for the simulations of precipitation variability at various scales in climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

No constraint on long-term tropical land carbon-climate feedback uncertainties from interannual variability

Unraveling drivers of the interannual variability of tropical land carbon cycle is critical for understanding land carbon-climate feedbacks. Here we utilize two generations of factorial model experiments to show that interannual variability of tropical land carbon uptake under both present and future climate is consistently dominated by terrestrial water availability variations in Earth system models. The magnitude of this interannual sensitivity of tropical land carbon uptake to water availability variations under future climate shows a large spread across the latest 16 models (2.3 ± 1.5 PgC/yr/Tt H 2 O), which is constrained to 1.3 ± 0.8 PgC/yr/Tt H 2 O using observations and the emergent constraint methodology. However, the long-term tropical land carbon-climate feedback uncertainties in the latest models can no longer be directly constrained by interannual variability compared with previous models, given that additional important processes are not well reflected in interannual variability but could determine long-term land carbon storage. Our results highlight the limited implication of interannual variability for long-term tropical land carbon-climate feedbacks and help isolate remaining uncertainties with respect to water limitations on tropical land carbon sink in Earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Development of a military-specific mesh-type computational phantom library and its application to internal dosimetry and in-field radiological triage screening

Estimates of organ-absorbed and committed doses to individuals exposed to radioactive materials via acute inhalation often rely on internal dose coefficients and detector responses from reference human computational models. To achieve more accurate dose assessments to United States Armed Forces service members exposed in-field, computational models with varying morphometric parameters representative of this population are necessary. The International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) Publication 145 provides detailed mesh reference computational phantoms (MRCPs) for adult males and females, with morphometric parameters matched to the 50th percentile. Previously, these phantoms were 2D and 3D scaled to match desired height, mass, and secondary anthropomorphic parameters in the creation of the University of Florida / Memorial Sloan Kettering (UF/MSK) computational phantom library. To achieve body fat percentage targets required for accession into the US Armed Forces, muscle and fat volumes were adjusted accordingly, thus, creating the UF/Department of Defence computational phantom library presented in this study. A comprehensive library of mesh-type computational human phantoms was created, including 57 adult males and 49 adult females with morphometric parameters aligned with United States Armed Forces service members. Phantoms were restricted to a body mass index between 19 and 27.5, with body fat percentages below 26% for males and 36% for females. Specific absorbed fractions were computed for selected source and target combinations, demonstrating how variations in height and body mass influence energy absorption in target regions relative to the ICRP MRCPs. Radiation detector responses were also computed, revealing that higher body masses resulted in decreased registered counts in the detection volume. These findings highlight the importance of incorporating morphometric variability in computational phantoms to achieve more accurate dose assessments and radiation detection responses for United States Armed Forces service members who inhale radioactive materials in-field.

computational phantoms↗

Optimization of a High Pressure Turbine Blade and Sector-Based Annular Rig Design for Supercritical CO2 Power Cycle Representative Testing

Abstract As part of the ongoing research into the design of hardware for zero emission cycles, a first-stage high-pressure turbine (HPT) blade is optimized for a 300 MWe supercritical CO2 (sCO2) power cycle using the surrogate-assisted genetic algorithm optimizer in Numeca FINE/Design three-dimensional with objectives of increasing efficiency and decreasing heat load to the blade. Supercritical CO2 property tables are constructed from NIST REFPROP data for the condensable gas simulation in FINE/Turbo. A detailed mesh sensitivity study is performed for a baseline design to identify the proper-grid refinement and efficiently allocate resources for the optimization. Seventy design variables are selected for the initial population generation. Self-organizing maps are then used to focus the design variables on the most important ones affecting the objective functions. The optimization results in approximately 3000 three-dimensional Reynolds Averaged Navier Stokes simulations of different blade shapes with increases in efficiency of up to 0.85% and decreases in heat load of 14%. Families of blade shapes are identified for experimental testing in an annular rig at the Purdue Experimental Turbine Aerothermal Laboratory. A design to adapt the annular cascade for testing optimized geometries is introduced, which features eccentric radius sectors allowing for scaled-up geometries of sCO2 optimized blade profiles to be tested at design cycle representative conditions at high Reynolds numbers in dry air. Analysis into the effects of Reynolds number, working fluid, and geometric relations are presented to prove the efficacy of the test method.

Engineering↗

Additive Manufacturing Interface Profiles for Jet Studies on the Vertical Shock Tube

Understanding the mixing between two fluids of disparate densities (i.e., variable density mixing) is important for the lab's mission. Experiments are required to validate our codes, such as RAGE, FLAG, and the BHR mix model. The role initial conditions (ICs) have on instability growth and the transition to turbulence is not completely understood and comparisons with experiments are needed. The Extreme Fluids team focuses on experiments at Los Alamos that utilize gases and low shock velocities (Mach <2 in air). These experiments have the advantage of high fidelity diagnostics capable of temporally and spatially resolved velocity and density measurements. One main difficulty is setting up a specific interface profile between the two gases. While attempts have been made to do so without the aid of a solid structure (i.e., a membrane), the results are limited in the range of possible shapes and reproducibility. Membranes provide the best way to provide a deterministic initial condition. However, fragments from the membrane can interfere with the flow and instability growth, as well as the diagnostics. In this project, we focused on exploring the materials and techniques available via modern additive manufacturing (i.e., 3D printing) to test if they could address some of the shortcomings of prior membrane designs. Our goal was to find a material that would have minimal impact on our experiment while also providing us with a means to produce complex initial conditions. This report details our work to explore the range of additive manufacturing capabilities and the jet-like structures we were able to generate using three-dimensional initial conditions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Analysis of Air-Purifying Respirator (APR) and Powered Air-Purifying Respirator (PAPR) Cartridge Performance Testing on a Hanford AP Tank Farm Exhauster Slipstream (Volume 1)

Washington River Protection Solutions (WRPS) tested four types of chemical cartridges for use in air-purifying respirators (APR) and powered air-purifying respirators (PAPR). These tests were undertaken to determine the period of time that the cartridges would provide adequate performance1 for APRs and PAPRs used to protect workers when exposed to a mixture of Chemicals of Potential Concern (COPC) from vapors exiting the Hanford AP tank farm exhauster slipstream. The Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) considers cartridge testing to be a valid approach for establishing cartridge change schedules. Testing commonly is applied in situations where mixtures of COPCs exist and where other approaches, such as manufacturer recommendations and modeling, are less reliable. The tests were designed and conducted to assure measurement and/or control of the key variables OSHA identified as important to estimate the cartridge service life, including temperature, humidity, COPC concentration, breathing rate, and cartridge adsorption capacity. Cartridge testing on a slipstream from the Hanford AP tank exhauster was conducted on March 23-24, 2018. This testing focused on both APR and PAPR cartridges. Previous testing of APR cartridges was conducted on the AP exhauster in June of 2016. However, an AP exhauster upgrade was completed in September 2016. In the most recent testing, slipstream vapors from the new AP exhauster were fed to two respirator cartridge test stands, one for the PAPR respirator cartridges and the other for the APR respirator cartridges. Both the APR and PAPR test stands were developed by WRPS in collaboration with HiLine Engineering (Richland, Washington). Multipurpose APR cartridges—SCOTT 7422-SD1 and SCOTT 7422-SC1 (SCOTT Safety, Monroe, North Carolina)—were assessed on separate days using the APR cartridge test stand. Multipurpose PAPR cartridges—MSA OptiFilter TL (MSA Safety Inc., Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania) and 3M FR-57 (3M Company, Maplewood, Minnesota)—were also tested consecutively over the same two days as the APR cartridge tests, using the PAPR cartridge test stand. Sample media (i.e., sorbent tubes) were used to collect samples of the vapor stream entering and exiting the respirator cartridges, and the samples then were analyzed for COPC concentrations. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory was tasked with conducting an independent analysis of the analytical results and making recommendations based on the results for respiratory cartridge performance and service life. The key conclusions from the analysis are described below.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Analysis of Respirator Cartridge Performance Testing on Hanford Tank A-101

Washington River Protection Solutions (WRPS) conducted tests on two types of chemical cartridges for use in air purifying respirators (APR) to determine the period of time that the cartridges would provide adequate performance1 to protect workers when exposed to a mixture of Chemicals of Potential Concern (COPCs) from vapors emanating from the headspace of tank A-101 on the Hanford Site. The Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) identifies cartridge testing as a valid approach for establishing a cartridge change schedules.[3] Testing is commonly applied in situations where mixtures of COPCs exist, and where other approaches, such as manufacturer recommendations and modeling, are less reliable. The tests were designed and conducted to ensure measurement and/or control of the key variables OSHA identified as important to estimate cartridge service life, including temperature, humidity, COPC concentration, breathing rate, and cartridge adsorption capacity. Testing was conducted over a period from July 22-24, 2016, using headspace vapors from Hanford tank A-101 under static conditions2 fed to a respirator cartridge test stand developed by WRPS in collaboration with HiLine Engineering (Richland, Washington). Multipurpose respirator cartridges, SCOTT 7422-SD1 and 7422-SC1 (SCOTT Safety, Monroe, North Carolina) were assessed on separate days with A-101 headspace vapors. Sample media (sorbent tubes) were used to collect samples of the vapor stream entering and exiting the respirator cartridge, and were subsequently analyzed for COPC concentrations. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory was tasked with conducting an independent analysis of the analytical results and making recommendations based on the results for respiratory cartridge performance and service life. Key conclusions from the assessment of the 59 COPCs in this study are described below: • Based on d measured cartridge inlet vapor concentrations from tank A-101 headspace, both ammonia and N-Nitrosodimethylamine (NDMA) exceeded their Occupational Exposure Limits (OEL).3 These measurements were generally consistent with maximum A-101 headspace measurements previously obtained for these two compounds. • Ammonia had respirator cartridge outlet concentrations that exceeded 10% of the OEL for both cartridges tested, indicating breakthrough for each. For the SCOTT 7422-SD1 cartridge, ammonia appeared to breakthrough above 10% of its OEL after 2 hours. For the SCOTT 7422-SC1 cartridge, ammonia breakthrough appeared to occur after 8 hours. 1 “Adequate performance” refers to the breakthrough criteria used in this analysis—that is, sustained cartridge outlet concentrations above 10% of the OEL. For some COPCs, an alternate threshold has been applied when necessary due to higher detection limit (DL)/reporting limit (RL) values for specific compounds. Ultimately, Industrial Hygiene professionals will use these results along with specific hazard assessments to determine service life and cartridge use that provides the necessary performance. 2 These tests were conducted under static conditions absent waste-disturbing activities in the subject tank or tank farm. 3 Occupational Exposure Limits accepted for Hanford Tank Farm use are based on OELs established by a U.S. governmental agency or national professional organization (e.g., OSHA, National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health, American Conference of Governmental Industrial Hygienists), or if no U.S. OEL exists, standard toxicological practices are applied to develop OELs using non-U.S. exposure limits, other established OELs for chemical surrogates when available, or other standard procedures. The OEL for NDMA was established in 2005 based on the MAK (Maximale Arbeitsplatzkonzentration) Commission standard adopted in Europe. iv • Despite respirator inlet measurements for NDMA that were in excess of its OEL, all corresponding outlet measurements, from both respirator cartridges, were below analytical DL 1 for the

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗