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At least 181 records · Page 10

Implications of a regional resource adequacy program on utility integrated resource planning: Study for the Western United States

LBNL collaborated with the Western Interstate Energy Board and the University of Texas, Austin to investigate the implications of a regional resource adequacy (RA) program on utility integrated resource planning. This report is focused on an active policy discussion to develop a novel voluntary program to share capacity resource and improve RA in the Western Interconnection. This report identifies two RA components of IRP that will be highly impacted by a regional RA program: resource capacity accreditation and RA targets. There are at least four resources that will require specific attention for their capacity credit calculation: (1) variable renewable resources, (2) demand-side resources, (3) hydropower, and (4) contracts. It will then be necessary to decide on a RA target reliability metric (e.g., a planning reserve margin) that is at least the minimum requirement in IRPs to ensure consistency in RA requirement calculations. The report finds that load forecasting and transmission expansion analyses will be moderately impacted, but that most of IRP components will not be significantly impacted. The report includes (i) a review of traditional resource adequacy practices in IRP; (ii) a case study of an existing regional RA program that interacts with IRP (Southwest Power Pool) and (iii) an overview of the NWPP regional resource adequacy proposal that is the object of this work. This paper does not (1) advocate for or against a regional RA program for the NWPP, (2) make detailed design recommendations for this program, or (3) assess its benefits and costs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Considerations for Resilience Guidelines for Clean Energy Plans: For the Oregon Public Utility Commission and Oregon Electricity Stakeholders

This document summarizes relevant approaches, research, models, and national examples for state utility regulators tasked with developing utility guidelines for risk-based resiliency planning. In 2021, the Oregon Legislature enacted a 100 percent clean electricity by 2040 standard that requires the Oregon Public Utility Commission (PUC) to oversee utility planning for aggressive clean energy deployment through Clean Energy Plans (House Bill 2021, Sec. 4). In addition to meeting emissions reductions targets, Clean Energy Plans must also: "Include a risk-based examination of resiliency opportunities that includes costs, consequences, outcomes, and benefits based on reasonable and prudent industry resiliency standards and guidelines established by the Public Utility Commission." This report will support the Oregon Public Utility Commission in developing resilience guidelines. Other state public utility commissions may also benefit from this research.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Load Forecasting in Electric Utility Integrated Resource Planning

Integrated resource planning (IRP) is a process used by many vertically-integrated U.S. electric utilities to determine least-cost/risk supply and demand-side resources that meet government policy objectives and future obligations to customers and, in many cases, shareholders. Forecasts of energy and peak demand are a critical component of the IRP process. There have been few, if any, quantitative studies of IRP long-run (planning horizons of two decades) load forecast performance and its relationship to resource planning and actual procurement decisions. In this paper, we evaluate load forecasting methods, assumptions, and outcomes for 12 Western U.S. utilities by examining and comparing plans filed in the early 2000s against recent plans, up to year 2014. We find a convergence in the methods and data sources used. We also find that forecasts in more recent IRPs generally took account of new information, but that there continued to be a systematic over-estimation of load growth rates during the period studied. We compare planned and procured resource expansion against customer load and year-to-year load growth rates, but do not find a direct relationship. Load sensitivities performed in resource plans do not appear to be related to later procurement strategies even in the presence of large forecast errors. These findings suggest that resource procurement decisions may be driven by other factors than customer load growth. Our results have important implications for the integrated resource planning process, namely that load forecast accuracy may not be as important for resource procurement as is generally believed, that load forecast sensitivities could be used to improve the procurement process, and that management of load uncertainty should be prioritized over more complex forecasting techniques.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Integrating Resilience Planning in Distribution System Planning

Electric utilities, regulators, and stakeholders face increasing risks of severe storms, freezes, floods, and heat waves damaging grid infrastructure and causing power outages—and increasing risks of utility equipment igniting wildfires. At the same time, customer electricity rates have risen substantially in recent years, due in part to replacing aging infrastructure and improving resilience to natural hazards and physical threats. To address these challenges, utilities are beginning to move beyond traditional, siloed planning processes to balance resilience with other fundamental grid objectives such as affordability, reliability, safety, and serving new loads. This study presents a framework for states and utilities that want to advance integration of resilience and distribution planning processes to improve planning efficiency, better prioritize cost-effective grid expenditures, and balance planning objectives. The framework includes 7 key integration points between these planning processes: -Strategy process -Data -Threat assessments -Solution identification and prioritization -Optimization opportunities -Consideration of other grid needs -Metrics Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory reviewed utility distribution system plans and interviewed subject matter experts to identify emerging practices for each of the 7 integration points. This report presents these practices, which can be used as a guide toward more holistic planning and cohesive investment strategies. It also includes 3 case studies to provide practical examples of how utilities apply such integrated planning processes: two pole hardening programs and one microgrid planning effort. The report concludes by identifying opportunities for future research.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Why Plan for Utility-Scale Solar?

The Solar@Scale project is a DOE Solar Energy Technologies Office-funded collaboration between the American Planning Association and International City/County Management Association (ICMA) to provide best practices and guidance for local communities in planning for large-scale PV development. As a member of the Solar@Scale advisory committee, I have been asked to present on trends and land use projections for large-scale solar to demonstrate why local governments will likely see growing demand for solar energy development. These slides represent an introduction to projections from NREL's Standard Scenarios, Cambium, LBNL's Utility-Scale Solar report, and other data sources on the level of solar energy development that can be expected across the country.

48 EE - Weatherization and Intergovernmental Progr↗

Performance Assurance Planning Guide for Utility Energy Service Contracts: 2025 Edition

Administered by the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP), the Utility Program has fostered collaboration among federal agencies and their serving utilities for more than 25 years. The Utility Program supports agencies using Utility Energy Service Contracts (UESCs), a well-developed, effective contracting vehicle that enable the latest approaches to cost-effective energy management at federal sites. Federal agencies have successfully used UESCs to award over 2,000 energy and water efficiency and renewable energy projects, investing approximately $\$$2.8 billion in furthering the Federal Government's efforts to reduce energy intensity. Authorized by 42 U.S. Code section 8256 (10 U.S. Code section 2913 for the Department of Defense), a UESC is a limited-source acquisition between a federal agency and an eligible serving utility for energy management services that generate savings from the implementation of energy- and water -conservation measures (collectively referred to as ECMs), with 42 U.S. Code section 8287 (Defense Federal Acquisition Regulation Supplement, Part 241), providing the term of a UESC, which may extend up to 25 years. Through a UESC, the utility partner assesses designs, and implements the desired ECMs - which can range from lighting retrofits and renewable energy systems, to combined heat and power plants or other technologies and strategies, and may provide financing for the project. The agency may use any combination of appropriations and third-party financing to pay for the project, providing useful flexibility. There is no limit to the project size, big or small, that can be implemented using a UESC. To assist agencies implementing a UESC, FEMP has developed a Utility Energy Service Contract Guide and this companion guidance document to help agencies and their utility partners better understand the best practices for to ensure UESCs continue to perform and generate savings throughout their performance period. These best practices utilize a combination of effective project management, communication, documentation, and a detailed Performance Assurance Plan. This plan is a project specific set of actionable protocols that define important tasks and responsibilities throughout the contract term and reflects the site conditions, complexities, agency capabilities, and operating and maintaining planned ECMs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

PNNL Plan for Acquiring, Anonymizing, and Protecting Utility Data

This plan details the processes that PNNL will use for acquiring, anonymizing and protecting utility data offered for use in research projects affiliated with the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Electric Reliability and Resilience (OE). PNNL has been tasked with obtaining agreements with utilities to provide PMU and related data for research purposes, and to assemble anonymized practice and test datasets for the three primary U.S. electric grid interconnections. DOE intends to provide anonymized PMU data to selected researchers to explore the capability of artificial intelligence tools to identify and improve existing knowledge, and to discover new insights and tools for better grid operation and management.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Panel Session 14: US DOE WIPP - Future Plans for the Utilization of a National Asset

This panel focused on the next phase of restoring the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP: located in Carlsbad, New Mexico, USA) to full disposal operations. The US DOE Carlsbad Field Office (CBFO) is funded for two Capital Asset Projects that will facilitate the restoration of WIPP to full capability and allow for future repository space planning. The panel will include updates on the capital projects, infrastructure improvements to extend WIPP's operational life, regulatory actions in support of capital projects, and improvements in new processes to implement WAC and DSA enhancements. This panel is filled by CBFO and WIPP contractor leaders to provide the big picture leading to WIPP's future. Presentations proposed include: 1 - 2018 WIPP Year in Review (Bruce Covert, Nuclear Waste Partnership, LLC (USA)); 2 - TRU Waste Shipments and WIPP Operations (Mark Pearcy, Nuclear Waste Partnership, LLC (USA)); 3 - Projects and Activities at WIPP (Ronald Gill, US DOE (USA)); 4 - The Future of WIPP (J.R. Stroble, US DOE (USA), Todd Shrader, US DOE (USA))

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Exploring the Utility of the Planned CYGNSS Mission for Investigating the Initiation and Development of the Madden-Julian Oscillation

CYGNSS is a planned constellation consisting of multiple micro-satellites that leverage the Global Positioning System (GPS) to provide rapidly updated, high resolution (approx. 15-50 km, approx. 4 h) surface wind speeds (via bi-static scatterometry) over the tropical oceans in any weather condition, including heavy rainfall. The approach of the work to be presented at this conference is to utilize a limited-domain, cloud-system resolving model (Weather Research and Forecasting or WRF) and its attendant data assimilation scheme (Three-Dimensional Variational Assimilation or 3DVAR) to investigate the utility of the CYGNSS mission for helping characterize key convectiveto- mesoscale processes - such as surface evaporation, moisture advection and convergence, and upscale development of precipitation systems - that help drive the initiation and development of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) in the equatorial Indian Ocean. The proposed work will focus on three scientific objectives. Objective 1 is to produce a high-resolution surface wind dataset resolution (approx. 0.5 h, approx. 1-4 km) for multiple MJO onsets using WRF-assimilated winds and other data from the DYNAmics of the MJO (DYNAMO) field campaign, which took place during October 2011 - March 2012. Objective 2 is to study the variability of surface winds during MJO onsets at temporal and spatial scales of finer resolution than future CYGNSS data. The goal is to understand how sub-CYGNSS-resolution processes will shape the observations made by the satellite constellation. Objective 3 is to ingest simulated CYGNSS data into the WRF model in order to perform observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs). These will be used to test and quantify the potential beneficial effects provided by CYGNSS, particularly for characterizing the physical processes driving convective organization and upscale development during the initiation and development of the MJO. The proposed research is ideal for answering important questions about the CYGNSS mission, such as the representativeness of surface wind retrievals in the context of the complex airflow processes that occur during heavy precipitation, as well as the tradeoffs in retrieval accuracy that result from finer spatial resolution of the CYGNSS winds versus increased errors/noisiness in those data. Research plans and initial progress toward these objectives will be presented.

Lang, Timothy↗

Current Best Practices on Wildfire Risk Reduction for Electric Transmission and Distribution Systems

This report provides a set of best practices in response to Section 4(d) of Executive Order 14308, Empowering Commonsense Wildfire Prevention and Response. The information contained herein is expected to be used in conjunction with other materials at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Wildfire Risk Mitigation Technical Conference (Docket No. AD25-16-000), with possible direction to the North American Electric Reliability Corporation to take action. The objective of this report is to provide an overview of existing and emerging best practices currently employed or planned by utilities for wildfire mitigation, demonstrating how these efforts align with the executive order’s emphasis on reducing electric utility–caused wildfires while also balancing cost-effectiveness. Additionally, while most practices in utility-developed wildfire mitigation plans focus on risk reduction through robustness and operational reliability, this report also discusses best practices for resilience. The best practices are adopted from publicly available utility wildfire mitigation plans from the United States and Canada, recent findings from wildfire risk reduction research, and industry engagement.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

SU-F-BRF-10: Deformable MRI to CT Validation Employing Same Day Planning MRI for Surrogate Analysis

Purpose: To compare rigid and deformable registrations of the prostate in the multi-modality setting (diagnostic-MRI to planning-CT) by utilizing a planning-MRI as a surrogate. The surrogate allows for the direct quantitative analysis which can be difficult in the multi-modality domain where intensity mapping differs. Methods: For ten subjects, T2 fast-spin-echo images were acquired at two different time points, the first several weeks prior to planning (diagnostic-MRI) and the second on the same day in which the planning CT was collected (planning-MRI). Significant effort in patient positioning and bowel/bladder preparation was undertaken to minimize distortion of the prostate in all datasets. The diagnostic-MRI was deformed to the planning-CT utilizing a commercially available deformable registration algorithm synthesized from local registrations. The deformed MRI was then rigidly aligned to the planning MRI which was used as the surrogate for the planning-CT. Agreement between the two MRI datasets was scored using intensity based metrics including Pearson correlation and normalized mutual information, NMI. A local analysis was performed by looking only within the prostate, proximal seminal vesicles, penile bulb and combined areas. A similar method was used to assess a rigid registration between the diagnostic-MRI and planning-CT. Results: Utilizing the NMI, the deformable registrations were superior to the rigid registrations in 9 of 10 cases demonstrating a 15.94% improvement (p-value < 0.001) within the combined area. The Pearson correlation showed similar results with the deformable registration superior in the same number of cases and demonstrating a 6.97% improvement (p-value <0.011). Conclusion: Validating deformable multi-modality registrations using spatial intensity based metrics is difficult due to the inherent differences in intensity mapping. This population provides an ideal testing ground for MRI to CT deformable registrations by obviating the need for multi-modality comparisons which are inherently more challenging. Deformable registrations generated in this work significantly outperformed rigid alignments. Research reported in this abstract was supported by the NIH National Cancer Institute R21CA153826 “MRI-Guided Radiotherapy and Biomarkers for Prostate Cancer” and Bankhead-Coley Cancer Research Program 10BT-03 “MRI-Guided Radiotherapy and Biomarkers for Prostate Cancer”.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

SU-E-J-218: Novel Validation Paradigm of MRI to CT Deformation of Prostate

Purpose: Deformable registration algorithms are inherently difficult to characterize in the multi-modality setting due to a significant differences in the characteristics of the different modalities (CT and MRI) as well as tissue deformations. We present a unique paradigm where this is overcome by utilizing a planning-MRI acquired within an hour of the planning-CT serving as a surrogate for quantifying MRI to CT deformation by eliminating the issues of multi-modality comparisons. Methods: For nine subjects, T2 fast-spin-echo images were acquired at two different time points, the first several weeks prior to planning (diagnostic-MRI) and the second on the same day as the planning-CT (planning-MRI). Significant effort in patient positioning and bowel/bladder preparation was undertaken to minimize distortion of the prostate in all datasets. The diagnostic-MRI was rigidly and deformably aligned to the planning-CT utilizing a commercially available deformable registration algorithm synthesized from local registrations. Additionally, the quality of rigid alignment was ranked by an imaging physicist. The distances between corresponding anatomical landmarks on rigid and deformed registrations (diagnostic-MR to planning-CT) were evaluated. Results: It was discovered that in cases where the rigid registration was of acceptable quality the deformable registration didn’t improve the alignment, this was true of all metrics employed. If the analysis is separated into cases where the rigid alignment was ranked as unacceptable the deformable registration significantly improved the alignment, 4.62mm residual error in landmarks as compared to 5.72mm residual error in rigid alignments with a p-value of 0.0008. Conclusion: This paradigm provides an ideal testing ground for MR to CT deformable registration algorithms by allowing for inter-modality comparisons of multi-modality registrations. Consistent positioning, bowel and bladder preparation may Result in higher quality rigid registrations than typically achieved which limits the impact of deformable registrations. In this study cases where significant differences exist, deformable registrations provide significant value.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Contingency plans for chromium utilization. Publication NMAB-335

The United States depends entirely on foreign sources for the critical material, chromium, making it very vulnerable to supply disruptions. The effectiveness of programs such as stockpiling, conservation, and research and development for substitutes to reduce the impact of disruption of imports of chromite and ferrochromium are discussed. Alternatives for decreasing chromium consumption also are identified for chromium-containing materials in the areas of design, processing, and substitution.

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