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At least 181 records · Page 10

Improved Earth Sensor Performance Using a Sequentially Correlated Noise Model

Spacecraft attitude estimation by means of an extended Kalman filter requires a reasonably true model of the inherent noise of each sensor. For some sensors, the largest uncorrected noise comes not from the sensor itself, but from errors in the model for the predicted observations. This is certainly the case for Earth horizon sensors. The Earth horizon as seen from low Earth orbit is nearly a circle whose radius depends primarily on altitude. A straightforward latitude-dependent correction is added to this to account for the oblateness of the Earth. There also are both seasonal and stochastic variations in the horizon height. The seasonal variations can be predicted to some limited degree based on models derived from historical data. The stochastic component characteristically shows variations that are correlated both in time and space but which are unpredictable over long time spans. This work investigates whether Earth horizon sensor performance can be improved by solving for its systematic error as an augmentation of an attitude Kalman filter. It is found that using only Earth and Sun sensors, the augmented state is not fully observable. Even when magnetometer data is included, only the pitch axis component of the error can be improved; the roll component is unobservable.

Sedlak, J.↗

Tetragonal Chicken Egg White Lysozyme Solubility in Sodium Chloride Solutions

The solubility of chicken egg white lysozyme, crystallized in the tetragonal form was measured in sodium chloride solutions from 1.6 to 30.7 C, using a miniature column solubility apparatus. Sodium chloride solution concentrations ranged from 1 to 7% (w/v). The solutions were buffered with 0.1 M sodium acetate buffer with the solubility being measured at pH values in 0.2 pH unit increments in the range pH 4.0 to 5.4, with data also included at pH 4.5. Lysozyme solubility was found to increase with increases in temperature and decreasing salt concentration. Solution pH has a varied and unpredictable effect on solubility.

Forsythe, Elizabeth L.↗

The Role of Self-Organized Criticality in the Substorm Phenomenon and its Relation to Localized Reconnection in the Plasma Sheet

Recent observations of the magnetotail plasma sheet have shown it to be a dynamic and turbulent region. Research has found strong turbulence in the plasma sheet at approximately 20 Earth's Radius tailward of Earth; the turbulence is observed at all activity levels. The existence of strong turbulence in the plasma sheet in the region associated with substorm onset might be thought difficult to reconcile with the coherence and repeatability of the substorm cycle. We review a variety of evidence that strongly suggests the magnetotail is driven, through magnetic flux transfer, into a state of "self-organized criticality" (SOC). It is an important property of physical systems that evolve into SOC that they self-organize into a unique, global dynamic state. This global state is inevitable, and repeatable. In this state, however, small-spatiotemporal-scale system fluctuations are unpredictable and can be only described statistically. This is the basis, we think, for the global coherence and repeatability of the substorm phenomenon in the turbulent plasma sheet. At, or near, substorm onset the plasma sheet can be described by a global SOC state containing significant small scale turbulence. In several recent studies, "sandpile" models were driven into SOC and then shown to reproduce various measures of substorm activity. We discuss the plasma physical foundation of these sandpile models. The evolution of simple continuum plasma sheet models into SOC-like states of many small reconnection events in the turbulent plasma sheet under the will be demonstrated. We view the substorm phenomenon as an avalanche assumption that the plasma sheet is in a SOC state.

Klimas, A. J.↗

Dust on Mars: An Aeolian Threat to Human Exploration?

The NASA HEDS Program is duly concerned for human explorers regarding the potential hazard posed by the ubiquitous dust mantle on Mars. To evaluate properties of dust that could be hazardous to humans, the MPS 2001 Lander payload will include the Mars Environmental Compatibility Assessment (MECA) experiment. This includes optical and atomic-force microscopy to evaluate soil grains for shape and size, wet chemistry to evaluate toxic substances, electrometry to evaluate triboelectric charging, and test-material palets to evaluate electrostatic and magnetic adhesion, and the hardness/abrasiveness of soil grains; these experimental subcomponents are delivered samples by the camera-equipped robotic arm of the lander which will acquire material from depths of 0.5 to 1.0 m in the soil. Data returned by MECA will be of value to both the BEDS and planetary/astrobiology communities. Dust poses a threat to human exploration because the martian system does not hydrologically or chemically remove fine particles that are being continuously generated by thermal, aeolian, and colluvial weathering, and by volcanism and impact over billions of years. The dust is extremely fine-grained, in copious quantities, ubiquitous in distribution, continually mobile, and a source of poorly-grounded static charges -- a suite of characteristics posing a particulate and electrical threat to explorers and their equipment. Dust is mobilized on global and regional scales, but probably also unpredictably and violently at local scales by dust devils. The latter might be expected in great abundance owing to near surface atmospheric instability (dust devils were detected by Pathfinder during its brief lifetime). Preliminary laboratory experiments suggest that space-suit materials subjected to windblown dust may acquire a uniform, highly adhesive dust layer that is also highly cohesive laterally owing to electrostatic forces. This layer will obscure visibility through the helmet visor, penetrate joints and fabrics, change the thermal properties of the suit, and possibly affect electronic/electrical suit functions. It is paramount that future missions address the issue of interparticle forces, and in particular, the role played by ionizing radiation in affecting these forces on Mars.

Marshall, J.↗

Dust on Mars: An Aeolian Threat to Human Exploration?

The NASA HEDS Program is duly concerned for human explorers regarding the potential hazard posed by the ubiquitous dust mantle on Mars. To evaluate properties of dust that could be hazardous to humans, the NMS 2001 Lander payload will include the Mars Environmental Compatibility Assessment (MECA) experiment. This includes optical and atomic-force microscopy to evaluate soil grains for shape and size, wet chemistry to evaluate toxic substances, electrometry to evaluate triboelectric charging, and test-material palets to evaluate electrostatic and magnetic adhesion, and the hardness/abrasiveness of soil grains; these experimental subcomponents are delivered samples by the camera-equipped robotic arm of the lander which will acquire material from depths of 0.5 to 1.0 m in the soil. Data returned by MECA will be of value to both the hEDS and planetary/astrobiology communities. Dust poses a threat to human exploration because the martian system does not hydrologically or chemically remove fine particles that are being continuously generated by thermal, aeolian, and colluvial weathering, and by volcanism and impact over billions of years. The dust is extremely fine-grained, in copious quantities, ubiquitous in distribution, continually mobile, and a source of poorly-grounded static charges -- a suite of characteristics posing a particulate and electrical threat to explorers and their equipment. Dust is mobilized on global and regional scales, but probably also unpredictably and violently at local scales by dust devils. The latter might be expected in great abundance owing to near surface atmospheric instability (dust devils were detected by Pathfinder during its brief lifetime). Preliminary laboratory experiments suggest that space-suit materials subjected to windblown dust may acquire a uniform, highly adhesive dust layer that is also highly cohesive laterally owing to electrostatic forces. This layer will obscure visibility through the helmet visor, penetrate joints and fabrics, change the thermal properties of the suit, and possibly affect electronic/electrical suit functions. It is paramount that future missions address the issue of interparticle forces, and in particular, the role played by ionizing radiation in affecting these forces on Mars.

Marshall, J.↗

"Dust Devils": Gardening Agents on the Surface of Mars, and Hidden Hazards to Human Exploration?

Dust devils are familiar sites in the and regions of the world: they can produce quite spectacular displays of dust lofting when the vortices scavenge very loose dust from a dry lake bed or from recently disturbed agricultural fields. If one were to arrive at the center of an arid region, take one photograph, or even a series of photographs over a period of several days, then return the images for laboratory analysis, it would be most likely concluded that the region was inactive from an aeolian perspective. No images of general dust movement were obtained, nor were any dust devils "caught on camera" owing to their ephemeral and unpredictable appearance, and the fact that there was deceptively little residue of their actions. If, however, a camera were to take a 360 degree continuous recording over a period of a year, and the film were then to be shown at high speed over a period a several minutes, the impression might be that of a region ravaged by air vorticity and dust movement. Extrapolate this over geological time, and it is possible to visualize dust devils as prime aeolian agents, rather than insignificant vagaries of nature, On Mars, the thin atmosphere permits the surface of the planet to be heated but it does not itself retain heat with the capacity of the earth's atmosphere. This gives rise to greater thermal instability near the surface of Mars as "warm" air pockets diapiritically inject themselves into higher atmospheric layers. Resulting boundary-layer vorticity on Mars might therefore be expected to produce dust devils in abundance, if only seasonally. The spectacular images of dust devils obtained by Pathfinder within its brief functional period on the planet testify to the probability of highly frequent surface vorticity in light of the above reasoning about observational probability. Notably, the Pathfinder devils appeared to be at least a kilometer in height. There are several consequences for the geology of Mars, and for human exploration, if dust devils are to be expected in reasonable abundance. First, from a geological perspective, the vortices will act as "gardening" agents for the top few centimeters of entrainable material. Over time (hundreds of millions, or billions of years being available), they will cover the surface with scouring paths, and the grain sizes that can be lofted by a vortex probably extends over the whole sand to dust range. The depositional paths are, of course, much larger, so that vortex-induced deposition is more widespread than vortex-induced erosion, and will without doubt, affect the whole region in which the dust devils occur (this might explain why rocks at the Viking site seemed oddly capped with dust in a region apparently subject to general aeolian scouring). On Mars, the lift forces in dust devils might be less than on earth owing to the much thinner atmosphere, but this may be counterbalanced by lower gravity and greater vortex velocities. Certainly, when active, other aeolian phenomena on Mars --sand motion and dust storms, seem no less energetic and no less capable of lofting sediments than equivalent terrestrial aeolian phenomena. Every several years, within the current climatic regime, the surface of Mars is subject to light dust fall from global dust storms. Over time, this should develop a very uniform surface layer, with commensurate uniformity in grain size, mineralogy, albedo, color, and general spectroscopic properties. Dust devils will disturb this situation by continually mixing the surface dust with underlying layers, perhaps composed of silt and sand. This size mixing will also involve compositional mixing. After some years, the thin layer of dust that may be difficult to entrain alone, becomes progressively mixed with coarser materials that could reduce the general aeolian threshold of the soil. Certainly the continual disturbance by vorticity will prevent surface stabilization that may bind or indurate grains (caused by slow cementation or ice welding at grain boundaries). If dust devils continually loft dust to kilometer heights, and the dust is sprayed into many cubic kilometers of atmosphere each time, could the devils produce a continual background of atmospheric dust that might be mistaken for the fallout of a distant large-scale dust storm? From a human exploration perspective, dust devils are unlikely to pose any, life- threatening situation for an astronaut unfortunate enough to encounter a momentary swirling cloud of loose soil. However, it is noted that pervasive dust is probably one of the greatest long-term hazards for a human encampment. The fineness and penetration capabilities of the dust, its electrostatic adhesive properties, and its complete ubiquity, render the material a persistent nuisance at best, but at worst, over a period of many months it is possible that space suits, machinery, habitat interiors, air filters, and so forth, could become jeopardized. Owing to dust penetration, the space suits used in the Apollo landings were rendered unusable after a few EVA activities. There will be a definite attempt to situate a human colony on Mars in an area that is far removed from the regions of the planet known for being the centers of major dust storms. At the heart of these storm systems, the dust lofting mechanics are unknown, but they are energetic and perhaps potentially life-threatening for an astronaut. Locating a colony in a region that appears from space to be meteorologically benign may lead to colony placement in a region prone to dust devils, but dust devils are not (or have not been) detectable from orbital observations: the region surveyed for placement will appear like the apparently inactive and area referred to earlier. The region may be spared from highly energetic weather systems, but it may not be necessarily immune from continual dust disturbance. Additional information is contained in the original.

Marshall, J.↗

Active Control by Conservation of Energy Concept

Three unrelated experiments are discussed; each was extremely sensitive to initial conditions. The initial conditions are the beginnings of the origins of the information that nonlinearity displays. Initial conditions make the phenomenon unstable and unpredictable. With the knowledge of the initial conditions, active control requires far less power than that present in the system response. The first experiment is on the control of shocks from an axisymmetric supersonic jet; the second, control of a nonlinear panel response forced by turbulent boundary layer and sound; the third, control of subharmonic and harmonics of a panel forced by sound. In all three experiments, control is achieved by redistribution of periodic energy response such that the energy is nearly preserved from a previous uncontrolled state. This type of active control improves the performance of the system being controlled.

Maestrello, Lucio↗

Using Iterative Repair to Increase the Responsiveness of Planning and Scheduling for Autonomous Spacecraft

An autonomous spacecraft must balance long-term and short-term considerations. It must perform purposeful activities that ensure long-term science and engineering goals are achieved and ensure that it maintains positive resource margins. This requires planning in advance to avoid a series of shortsighted decisions that can lead to failure, However, it must also respond in a timely fashion to a somewhat dynamic and unpredictable environment. Thus, spacecraft plans must often be modified due to fortuitous events such as early completion of observations and setbacks such as failure to acquire a guidestar for a science observation. This paper describes the use of iterative repair to support continuous modification and updating of a current working plan in light of changing operating context.

Chien, Steve↗

The Mars Surveyor '01 Rover and Robotic Arm

The Mars Surveyor 2001 Lander will carry with it both a Robotic Arm and Rover to support various science and technology experiments. The Marie Curie Rover, the twin sister to Sojourner Truth, is expected to explore the surface of Mars in early 2002. Scientific investigations to determine the elemental composition of surface rocks and soil using the Alpha Proton X-Ray Spectrometer (APXS) will be conducted along with several technology experiments including the Mars Experiment on Electrostatic Charging (MEEC) and the Wheel Abrasion Experiment (WAE). The Rover will follow uplinked operational sequences each day, but will be capable of autonomous reactions to the unpredictable features of the Martian environment. The Mars Surveyor 2001 Robotic Arm will perform rover deployment, and support various positioning, digging, and sample acquiring functions for MECA (Mars Environmental Compatibility Assessment) and Mossbauer Spectrometer experiments. The Robotic Arm will also collect its own sensor data for engineering data analysis. The Robotic Arm Camera (RAC) mounted on the forearm of the Robotic Arm will capture various images with a wide range of focal length adjustment during scientific experiments and rover deployment

Bonitz, Robert G.↗

Channel Selection for the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI)

The GOES-R (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R) Imager will be the fourth generation imaging radiometer flown in 40 years that observes the western hemisphere from geosynchronous orbit. The Imager is an international resource for information about unpredictable short-term mesoscale phenomena such as severe storms, precipitation, clouds and fog, fires and volcanoes. As such, it must provide: (1) continuity of service, (2) valuable new capabilities, and (3) synergy with the companion fleet of imaging radiometers. This combination of requirements lead to a suite of channels evolved from the generations of LEO (low Earth orbit) and GEO- (geosynchronous Earth orbit) and -sounders. To maximize the science and applications payoff from its unique viewpoint, the next generation GOES Imager should concentrate upon regional measurements of the chaotic atmospheric phenomena involving water and the diurnal cycle -- energy potential, moisture transport, phase changes, precipitation, and cloud climatology.

Chesters, Dennis↗

Bubble Generation in a Flowing Liquid Medium and Resulting Two-Phase Flow in Microgravity

The present investigation reports a study of bubble generation under reduced gravity conditions, using both a co-flow and a cross-flow configuration. This study may be used in the conceptual design of a space-based thermal management system. Ensuing two-phase flow void fraction can be accurately monitored using a single nozzle gas injection system within a continuous liquid flow conduit, as utilized in the present investigation. Accurate monitoring of void fraction leads to precise control of heat and mass transfer coefficients related to a thermal management system; hence providing an efficient and highly effective means of removing heat aboard spacecraft or space stations. Our experiments are performed in parabolic flight aboard the modified DC-9 Reduced Gravity Research Aircraft at NASA Lewis Research Center, using an air-water system. For the purpose of bubble dispersion in a flowing liquid, we use both a co-flow and a cross-flow configuration. In the co-flow geometry, air is introduced through a nozzle in the same direction with the liquid flow. On the other hand, in the cross-flow configuration, air is injected perpendicular to the direction of water flow, via a nozzle protruding inside the two-phase flow conduit. Three different flow conduit (pipe) diameters are used, namely, 1.27 cm, 1.9 cm and 2.54 cm. Two different ratios of nozzle to pipe diameter (D(sub N))sup * are considered, namely (D(sub N))sup * = 0.1 and 0.2, while superficial liquid velocities are varied from 8 to 70 cm/s depending on flow conduit diameter. It is experimentally observed that by holding all other flow conditions and geometry constant, generated bubbles decrease in size with increase in superficial liquid velocity. Detached bubble diameter is shown to increase with air injection nozzle diameter. Likewise, generated bubbles grow in size with increasing pipe diameter. Along the same lines, it is shown that bubble frequency of formation increases and hence the time to detachment of a forming bubble decreases, as the superficial liquid velocity is in-creased. Furthermore, it is shown that the void fraction of the resulting two-phase flow increases with volumetric gas flow rate Q(sub d), pipe diameter and gas injection nozzle diameter, while they decrease with surrounding liquid flow. The important role played by flowing liquid in detaching bubbles in a reduced gravity environment is thus emphasized. We observe that the void fraction can be accurately controlled by using single nozzle gas injection, rather than by employing multiple port injection, since the later system gives rise to unpredictable coalescence of adjacent bubbles. It is of interest to note that empirical bubble size and corresponding void fraction are somewhat smaller for the co-flow geometry than the cross-flow configuration at similar flow conditions with similar pipe and nozzle diameters. In order to supplement the empirical data, a theoretical model is employed to study single bubble generation in the dynamic (Q(sub d) = 1 - 1000 cu cm/s) and bubbly flow regime within the framework of the co-flow configuration. This theoretical model is based on an overall force balance acting on the bubble during the two stages of generation, namely the expansion and the detachment stage. Two sets of forces, one aiding and the other inhibiting bubble detachment are identified. Under conditions of reduced gravity, gas momentum flux enhances, while the surface tension force at the air injection nozzle tip inhibits bubble detachment. In parallel, liquid drag and inertia can act as both attaching and detaching forces, depending on the relative velocity of the bubble with respect to the surrounding liquid. Predictions of the theoretical model compare well with our experimental results. However, at higher superficial liquid velocities, as the bubble loses its spherical form, empirical bubble size no longer matches the theoretical predictions. In summary, we have developed a combined experimental and theoretical work, which describes the complex process of bubble generation and resulting two-phase flow in a microgravity environment. Results of the present study can be used in a wide range of space-based applications, such as thermal energy and power generation, propulsion, cryogenic storage and long duration life support systems, necessary for programs such as NASA's Human Exploration for the Development of Space (HEDS).

Pais, S. C.↗

Flight Validation of Mars Mission Technologies

Effective exploration and characterization of Mars will require the deployment of numerous surface probes, tethered balloon stations and free-flying balloon systems as well as larger landers and orbiting satellite systems. Since launch opportunities exist approximately every two years it is extremely critical that each and every mission maximize its potential for success. This will require significant testing of each system in an environment that simulates the actual operational environment as closely as possible. Analytical techniques and laboratory testing goes a long way in mitigating the inherent risks associated with space exploration, however they fall sort of accurately simulating the unpredictable operational environment in which these systems must function.

Eberspeaker, P. J.↗

Human Mars Mission Contamination Issues

A potential challenge for a human Mars mission is that while humans are by most measures the obvious best way to search for life on Mars, we may also be the most problematic in that we could unduly compromise the search for life by contaminating relevant environments and/or possibly adversely and irreversibly affecting indigenous life. Perhaps more problematic is the fundamental epistemic challenge of the "one data point" limitation which could decrease confidence in applying terrestrially based research to extraterrestrial life issues in general. An informal decision tree is presented as one way to begin thinking about contamination issues. There are many sub-questions and distinctions not shown such as biological vs. nonbiological (but biologically relevant) contamination, viable vs. dead organisms, masking indigenous organisms vs. merely making the search more difficult, and independent origin vs. panspermia distinctions. While it may be unlikely that terrestrial microbes could survive on Mars, let alone reproduce and unduly compromise the search for life, the unpredictable potential for microbial life to survive, grow exponentially, evolve and modify (and sometimes destroy) environments, warrants focusing carefully on biologically relevant contamination as we prepare to send humans to the first planet that may have indigenous life-forms.

Lupisella, M. L.↗

Space- and Ground-Based Crystal Growth Using a Baffle (CGB)

The composition of semiconductor crystals produced in space by conventional melt-growth processes (directional solidification and zone melting) is affected by minute levels of residual micro-acceleration, which causes natural convection. The residual acceleration has random magnitude, direction and frequency. Therefore, the velocity field in the melt is apriori unpredictable. As a result, the composition of the crystals grown in space can not be predicted and reproduced. The method for directional solidification with a submerged heater or a baffle was developed under NASA sponsorship. The disk-shaped baffle acts as a partition, creating a small melt zone at the solid-liquid interface. As a result, in ground based experiment the level of buoyancy-driven convection at the interface is significantly reduced. In several experiments with Te-doped GaSb, nearly diffusion controlled segregation was achieved.

Ostrogorsky, A. G.↗

Measurement of Charged Particle Interactions in Spacecraft and Planetary Habitat Shielding Materials

The Microgravity Materials Program, through its 98-HEDS-04 Research Announcement, has called for research to support 'enhanced human radiation protection through the development of light weight soft goods with high radiation protection characteristics.' Given the nature of the particle flux from the Galactic Cosmic Radiation (GCR), and the many constraints on the depth and type of shielding in spacecraft and planetary habitats, it is clear that the health risks these particles present to astronauts in deep space cannot be entirely eliminated. It is the objective of this project to develop a highly accurate model of GCR transport so that NASA can develop and validate the properties of protective shielding materials with the best available information. The validity of the GCR transport model depends in large part on having accurate and precise input data in the form of the charge-changing and fragment production cross sections for the heavy ions of greatest biological significance. The accuracy of the transport model can be evaluated and enhanced by employing the following a three-step strategy: (1) New cross section data will be made available to the NASA-Langley scientists responsible for the transport codes, and will be used as inputs to the codes; (2) The codes will be used to predict additional cross sections and/or details of the radiation field behind realistic shielding arrangements, where the materials and configurations may be quite complex. Mock-ups of the shielding configurations suitable for use in accelerator experiments will obtained by the NASA-Langley co-investigators; and (3) The transport model predictions will be tested in accelerator-based experiments. The time scale for one pass through these steps is well-suited to a four-year schedule. Over a longer term, these steps may be repeated, leading to still further refinements of the transport code, new predictions, and an additional round of measurements, until the desired predictive accuracy is achieved. The focus of this work is primarily on the first of these steps, the determination of fragmentation cross sections, which will be the main task in years one and two. The detailed strategy for carrying out the remainder of the program is more difficult to specify, as it depends on unpredictable factors such as the extent to which the transport model must be modified, schedules for accelerator time, target fabrication, etc.

Zeitlin, C.↗

Analysis and Verification of HET 1 m Mirror Deflections Due to Edge Sensor Loading

The ninety-one 1 m mirror segments which comprise the McDonald Observatory Hobby Eberly Telescope (HET) primary mirror have been observed to drift out of alignment in an unpredictable manner in response to time variant temperature deviations. A Segment Alignment Maintenance System (SAMS) is being developed to detect and correct this segment-to-segment drift using sensors mounted at the edges of the mirror segments. However, the segments were not originally designed to carry the weight of edge sensors. Thus, analyses and tests were conducted as part of the SAMS design to estimate the magnitude and shape of the edge sensor induced deformations as well as the resultant optical performance. Interferometric testing of a 26 m radius of curvature HET mirror segment was performed at the Marshall Space Flight Center using several load conditions to verify the finite element analyses.

Stallcup, Michael A.↗

Advanced Power and Propulsion: Insuring Human Survival and Productivity in Deep Space Missions

Dr. Chang-Diaz gave an intriguing presentation of his research in advanced rocket propulsion and its relevance for planning and executing crewed deep space explorations. Though not necessarily exclusively Martian, his thrust looks critically at future Mars missions. Initially Dr. Chang-Diaz showed the time constraints of Mars missions due to orbital mechanics and our present chemically powered rocket technology. Since essentially all the energy required to place current generation spacecraft into a Martian trajectory must be expended in the early minutes of a flight, most of such a mission is spent in free-fall drift, captive to the gravitational forces among Earth, the Sun, and Mars. The simple physics of such chemically powered missions requires nearly a year in transit for each direction of a Mars mission. And the optimal orientations of Earth and Mars for rendezvous require further time on or around Mars to await return. These extensions of mission duration place any crew under a three-fold jeopardy: (1) physiological deconditioning (which in some aspects is still unknown and unpreventable), (2) psychological stress, and (3) ionizing radiation. This latter risk is due to exposure of crew members for extended time to the highly unpredictable and potentially lethal radiations of open space. Any gains in shortening mission duration would reap equivalent or greater benefits for these crew concerns. Dr. Chang-Diaz has applied his training and expertise (Ph.D. from Massachusetts Institute of Technology in applied plasma physics) toward development of continuous rocket propulsion which would offer great time advantages in travel, and also more launch options than are now available. He clearly explained the enormous gains from a relatively low thrust accelerative force applied essentially continuously versus the high, but short-lived propulsion of present chemical rockets. In fact, such spacecraft could be powered throughout the mission, accelerating to approximately the midpoint and decelerating during the latter half. This would not only provide some level of gravity (acceleration) throughout the mission but also allow very high velocities to be achieved, thus saving many months of travel time. In proposing the design of such a spacecraft propulsion system, Dr. Chang-Diaz was quick to acknowledge the need for a large power source, which undoubtedly must be nuclear fueled at the solar distances involved. He calls his system the Variable Specific Impulse Magnetoplasma Rocket (VASIMR). The other major ingredient is a mass (deuterium, which could also function as a radiation shield for crews) for energizing into the ultra hot, high velocity exhaust plasma. He foresees models now functional in the laboratory soon to be tested in space. In fact, some of these concepts have already been tried there. His optimism and determination would have operational rockets in the next decades.

Chang-Diaz, Franklin R.↗

Constraints on Variability of Brightness and Surface Magnetism on Time Scales of Decades to Centuries in the Sun and Sun-Like Stars: A Source of Potential Terrestrial Climate Variability

These four points summarize our work to date. (1) Conciliation of solar and stellar photometric variability. Previous research by us and colleagues suggested that the Sun might at present be showing unusually low photometric variability compared to other sun-like stars. Those early results would question the suitability of the technique of using sun-like stars as proxies for solar irradiance change on time scales of decades to centuries. However, our results indicate the contrary: the Sun's observed short-term (seasonal) and longterm (year-to-year) brightness variations closely agree with observed brightness variations in stars of similar mass and age. (2) We have demonstrated an inverse correlation between the global temperature of the terrestrial lower troposphere, inferred from the NASA Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) radiometers, and the total area of the Sun covered by coronal holes from January 1979 to present (up to May 2000). Variable fluxes of either solar charged particles or cosmic rays, or both, may influence the terrestrial tropospheric temperature. The geographical pattern of the correlation is consistent with our interpretation of an extra-terrestrial charged particle forcing. (3) Possible climate mechanism amplifying the impact of solar ultraviolet irradiance variations. The key points of our proposed climate hypersensitivity mechanism are: (a) The Sun is more variable in the UV (ultraviolet) than in the visible. However, the increased UV irradiance is mainly absorbed in the lower stratosphere/upper troposphere rather than at the surface. (b) Absorption in the stratosphere raises the temperature moderately around the vicinity of the tropopause, and tends to stabilize the atmosphere against vertical convective/diffusive transport, thus decreasing the flux of heat and moisture carried upward from surface. (c) The decrease in the upward convection of heat and moisture tends to raise the surface temperature because a drier upper atmosphere becomes less cloudy, which in turn allows more solar radiation to reach the Earth's surface. (4) Natural variability in an ocean-atmosphere climate model. We use a 14-region, 6-layer, global thermo-hydrodynamic ocean-atmosphere model to study natural climate variability. All the numerical experiments were performed with no change in the prescribed external boundary conditions (except for the seasonal cycle of the Sun's tilt angle). Therefore, the observed inter-annual variability is of an internal kind. The model results are helpful toward the understanding of the role of nonlinearity in climate change. We have demonstrated a range of possible climate behaviors using our newly developed ocean-atmosphere model. These include climate configurations with no interannual variability, with multi-year periodicities, with continuous chaos, or with chaotically occuring transitions between two discrete substrates. These possible modes of climate behavior are all possible for the real climate, as well as the model. We have shown that small temporary climate influences can trigger shifts both in the mean climate, and among these different types of behavior. Such shifts are not only theoretically plausible, as shown here and elsewhere; they are omnipresent in the climate record on time scales from several years to the age of the Earth. This has two apparently opposite implications for the possibility of anthropogenic global warming. First, any warming which might occur as a result of human influence would be only a fraction of the small-to-large unpredictable natural changes and changes which result from other external causes. On the other hand, small temporary influences such as human influence do have the potential of causing large permanent shifts in mean climate and interannual variability.

Baliunas, Sallie L.↗