Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “uncertainty estimation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Statistical patterns of theory uncertainties

A comprehensive uncertainty estimation is vital for the precision program of the LHC. While experimental uncertainties are often described by stochastic processes and well-defined nuisance parameters, theoretical uncertainties lack such a description. We study uncertainty estimates for cross-section predictions based on scale variations across a large set of processes. We find patterns similar to a stochastic origin, with accurate uncertainties for processes mediated by the strong force, but a systematic underestimate for electroweak processes. We propose an improved scheme, based on the scale variation of reference processes, which reduces outliers in the mapping from leading order to next-to-leading-order in perturbation theory.

Ghosh, Aishik↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying Uncertainty in PV Energy Estimates Final Report

Uncertainty in PV energy estimates is "one of the most critical areas of lack of understanding" according to independent engineers, financiers, PV model developers, and other industry stakeholders. The primary problem is a lack of rigorous, transparent, widely accepted methods for quantifying uncertainty in energy production estimates. Uncertainty in energy production estimates arises from variability of the solar resource, inexact PV performance models and their parameters, and system reliability considerations. Uncertainty in annual energy production is frequently calculated for larger projects in order to quantify financial risk. Key statistics for energy, such as the P-values "P50" and "P90" (the annual energy values that are exceeded in future years with 50\% and 90\% probability, respectively) are used by financing institutions to calculate the repayment risk for the project. The current methods to estimate these statistics are typically proprietary, specialized, and involve significant post-processing of commercial performance model results. This black-box approach leads to inconsistent P-value estimates from different parties, which reduces investors' confidence in the results. Since the financial community bases its risk assessment on these estimates, reduced confidence increases perceived project risk, and consequently financing costs. The goal of this project was to establish a set of best practices for quantifying uncertainty in energy production estimates, including identifying what sources of uncertainty must be considered with clear definitions and metrics, determining which sources are the biggest drivers of uncertainty, and providing a computationally efficient framework for combining different sources of uncertainty that is flexible enough to accommodate substitutions of data or methods when better information is available. We engaged a wide set of stakeholders to ensure industry endorsement and adoption, and leveraged complementary projects investigating individual sources of uncertainty in great detail, as well as others' work that started down this path.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty-driven dynamics for active learning of interatomic potentials

Machine learning (ML) models, if trained to data sets of high-fidelity quantum simulations, produce accurate and efficient interatomic potentials. Active learning (AL) is a powerful tool to iteratively generate diverse data sets. In this approach, the ML model provides an uncertainty estimate along with its prediction for each new atomic configuration. If the uncertainty estimate passes a certain threshold, then the configuration is included in the data set. Here we develop a strategy to more rapidly discover configurations that meaningfully augment the training data set. The approach, uncertainty-driven dynamics for active learning (UDD-AL), modifies the potential energy surface used in molecular dynamics simulations to favor regions of configuration space for which there is large model uncertainty. The performance of UDD-AL is demonstrated for two AL tasks: sampling the conformational space of glycine and sampling the promotion of proton transfer in acetylacetone. The method is shown to efficiently explore the chemically relevant configuration space, which may be inaccessible using regular dynamical sampling at target temperature conditions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1993

Dependence of the interstellar propagation of ultraheavy cosmic-ray nuclei on various parameters

A stepwise program of interstellar-cosmic-ray propagation suitable for implementation on a small work-station has been used to study the sensitivity of propagation models of ultraheavy cosmic-ray nuclei (UH nuclei) on the input parameters. In this program an initial set of relevant parameters describing the astrophysics of the propagations process and the nuclear physics representing the interactions was assumed. These parameters were then varied within the estimated uncertainties in order to evaluate the sensitivity of the predictions on the assumed values. It is shown that current uncertainties in the estimates of the UH nuclei nuclear cross sections for the production of lighter fragments present the most significant sources of error and are sufficient to preclude reaching detailed conclusions about the source composition. Other uncertainties, such as those in the escape probabilities, or the mean interstellar density, while still significant, are less serious.

Clinton, Robert R.↗
NASA NTRS2020

The AERONET Version 3 Aerosol Retrieval Algorithm, Associated Uncertainties and Comparisons to Version 2

The Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) Version 3 (V3) aerosol retrieval algorithm is described, which is based on the Version 2 (V2) algorithm with numerous updates. Comparisons of V3 aerosol retrievals to those of V2 are presented, along with a new approach to estimate uncertainties in many of the retrieved aerosol parameters. Changes in the V3 aerosol retrieval algorithm include (1) a new polarized radiative transfer code (RTC), which replaced the scalar RTC of V2, (2) detailed characterization of gas absorption by adding NO2 and H2O to specify total gas absorption in the atmospheric column, specification of vertical profiles of all the atmospheric species, (3) new bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) parameters for land sites adopted from the MODIS BRDF/Albedo product, (4) a new version of the extraterrestrial solar flux spectrum, and (5) a new temperature correction procedure of both direct Sun and sky radiance measurements. The potential effect of each change in V3 on single scattering albedo (SSA) retrievals was analyzed. The operational almucantar retrievals of V2 versus V3 were compared for four AERONET sites: GSFC, Mezaira, Mongu, and Kanpur. Analysis showed very good agreement in retrieved parameters of the size distributions. Comparisons of SSA retrievals for dust aerosols (Mezaira) showed a good agreement in 440 nm SSA, while for longer wavelengths V3 SSAs are systematically higher than those of V2, with the largest mean difference at 675 nm due to cumulative effects of both extraterrestrial solar flux and BRDF changes. For non-dust aerosols, the largest SSA deviation is at 675 nm due to differences in extraterrestrial solar flux spectrums used in each version. Further, the SSA 675 nm mean differences are very different for weakly (GSFC) and strongly (Mongu) absorbing aerosols, which is explained by the lower sensitivity to a bias in aerosol scattering optical depth by less absorbing aerosols. A new hybrid (HYB) sky radiance measurement scan is introduced and discussed. The HYB combines features of scans in two different planes to maximize the range of scattering angles and achieve scan symmetry, thereby allowing for cloud screening and spatial averaging, which is an advantage over the principal plane scan that lacks robust symmetry. We show that due to an extended range of scattering angles, HYB SSA retrievals for dust aerosols exhibit smaller variability with solar zenith angles (SZAs) than those of almucantar (ALM), which allows extension of HYB SSA retrievals to SZAs less than 50∘ to as small as 25∘. The comparison of SSA retrievals from closely time-matched HYB and ALM scans in the 50 to 75∘ SZA range showed good agreement with the differences below ∼0.005. We also present an approach to estimate retrieval uncertainties which utilizes the variability in retrieved parameters generated by perturbing both measurements and auxiliary input parameters as a proxy for retrieval uncertainty. The perturbations in measurements and auxiliary inputs are assumed as estimated biases in aerosol optical depth (AOD), radiometric calibration of sky radiances combined with solar spectral irradiance, and surface reflectance. For each set of Level 2 Sun/sky radiometer observations, 27 inputs corresponding to 27 combinations of biases were produced and separately inverted to generate the following statistics of the inversion results: average, standard deviation, minimum and maximum values. From these statistics, standard deviation (labeled U27) is used as a proxy for estimated uncertainty, and a lookup table (LUT) approach was implemented to reduce the computational time. The U27 climatological LUT was generated from the entire AERONET almucantar (1993–2018) and hybrid (2014–2018) scan databases by binning U27s in AOD (440 nm), Angström exponent (AE, 440–870 nm), and SSA (440, 675, 870, 1020 nm). Using this LUT approach, the uncertainty estimates U27 for each individual V3 Level 2 retrieval can be obtained by interpolation using the corresponding measured and inverted combination of AOD, AE, and SSA.

Aliaksandr Siniuk↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian learning with Gaussian processes for low-dimensional representations of time-dependent nonlinear systems

This work presents a data-driven method for learning low-dimensional time-dependent physics-based surrogate models whose predictions are endowed with uncertainty estimates. We use the operator inference approach to model reduction that poses the problem of learning low-dimensional model terms as a regression of state space data and corresponding time derivatives by minimizing the residual of reduced system equations. Standard operator inference models perform well with accurate training data that are dense in time, but producing stable and accurate models when the state data are noisy and/or sparse in time remains a challenge. Another challenge is the lack of uncertainty estimation for the predictions from the operator inference models. Our approach addresses these challenges by incorporating Gaussian process surrogates into the operator inference framework to (1) probabilistically describe uncertainties in the state predictions and (2) procure analytical time derivative estimates with quantified uncertainties. The formulation leads to a generalized least-squares regression and, ultimately, reduced-order models that are described probabilistically with a closed-form expression for the posterior distribution of the operators. The resulting probabilistic surrogate model propagates uncertainties from the observed state data to reduced-order predictions. Furthermore, we demonstrate the method is effective for constructing low-dimensional models of two nonlinear partial differential equations representing a compressible flow and a nonlinear diffusion–reaction process, as well as for estimating the parameters of a low-dimensional system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations representing compartmental models in epidemiology.

Data-driven model reduction↗
DOE OSTI2022

Interpretable Uncertainty Quantification in AI for HEP

Estimating uncertainty is at the core of performing scientific measurements in HEP: a measurement is not useful without an estimate of its uncertainty. The goal of uncertainty quantification (UQ) is inextricably linked to the question, "how do we physically and statistically interpret these uncertainties?" The answer to this question depends not only on the computational task we aim to undertake, but also on the methods we use for that task. For artificial intelligence (AI) applications in HEP, there are several areas where interpretable methods for UQ are essential, including inference, simulation, and control/decision-making. There exist some methods for each of these areas, but they have not yet been demonstrated to be as trustworthy as more traditional approaches currently employed in physics (e.g., non-AI frequentist and Bayesian methods). Shedding light on the questions above requires additional understanding of the interplay of AI systems and uncertainty quantification. We briefly discuss the existing methods in each area and relate them to tasks across HEP. We then discuss recommendations for avenues to pursue to develop the necessary techniques for reliable widespread usage of AI with UQ over the next decade.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multiphysics Simulation of the NASA SIRIUS-CAL Fuel Experiment in the Transient Test Reactor Using Griffin

After approximately 50 years, NASA is restarting efforts to develop nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP) for interplanetary missions. Building upon nuclear engine tests performed from the late 1950s to the early 1970s, the present research and testing focuses on advanced materials and fabrication methods. A number of transient tests have been performed to evaluate materials performance under high-temperature, high-flux conditions, with several more experiments in the pipeline for future testing. The measured data obtained from those tests are being used to validate the Griffin reactor multiphysics code for this particular type of application. Griffin was developed at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) using the MOOSE framework. This article describes the simulation results of the SIRIUS-CAL calibration experiment in the Transient Reactor Test Facility (TREAT). SIRIUS-CAL was the first transient test conducted on NASA fuels, and although the test was performed with a relatively low core peak power, the test specimen survived a temperature exceeding 900 K. Griffin simulations of the experiment successfully matched the reactor’s power transient after calibrating the initial control rod position to match the initial reactor period. The thermal-hydraulics model largely matches the time-dependent response of a thermocouple located within the experiment specimen to within the uncertainty estimate. However, the uncertainty range is significant and must be reduced in the future.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
NASA NTRS2006

Verification and Validation in NASA-CUIP LOX/methane Injector Research Efforts

The NASA-CUIP program is supporting experimental and modeling/computational research efforts investigating wall heat flux characteristics of LOX/methane single-element injectors. A Verification and Validation (V&V) task has begun with the objective of quantifying the degree of accuracy of the models for wall heat flux distributions at specific sets of conditions. The V&V approach used is that being drafted as a standard by the ASME Performance Test Codes Committee, PTC 61: Verification and Validation in Computational Fluid Dynamics and Heat Transfer. The approach is based on well-established concepts from experimental uncertainty analysis. Initially the V&V and uncertainty estimation efforts will use data obtained previously in the same facility using oxygen/hydrogen in single-element injector testing. In this paper the V&V process, experimental facility, and computer code are described, and approaches to estimating the associated uncertainties are discussed.

Coleman, Hugh W.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Aeroheating Testing and Predictions for Project Orion CEV at Turbulent Conditions

An investigation of the aeroheating environment of the Project Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle was performed in the Arnold Engineering Development Center Hypervelocity Wind Tunnel No. 9 Mach 8 and Mach 10 nozzles and in the NASA Langley Research Center 20 - Inch Mach 6 Air Tunnel. Heating data were obtained using a thermocouple-instrumented approx.0.035-scale model (0.1778-m/7-inch diameter) of the flight vehicle. Runs were performed in the Tunnel 9 Mach 10 nozzle at free stream unit Reynolds numbers of 1x10(exp 6)/ft to 20x10(exp 6)/ft, in the Tunnel 9 Mach 8 nozzle at free stream unit Reynolds numbers of 8 x 10(exp 6)/ft to 48x10(exp 6)/ft, and in the 20-Inch Mach 6 Air Tunnel at free stream unit Reynolds numbers of 1x10(exp 6)/ft to 7x10(exp 6)/ft. In both facilities, enthalpy levels were low and the test gas (N2 in Tunnel 9 and air in the 20-Inch Mach 6) behaved as a perfect-gas. These test conditions produced laminar, transitional and turbulent data in the Tunnel 9 Mach 10 nozzle, transitional and turbulent data in the Tunnel 9 Mach 8 nozzle, and laminar and transitional data in the 20- Inch Mach 6 Air Tunnel. Laminar and turbulent predictions were generated for all wind tunnel test conditions and comparisons were performed with the experimental data to help define the accuracy of computational method. In general, it was found that both laminar data and predictions, and turbulent data and predictions, agreed to within less than the estimated 12% experimental uncertainty estimate. Laminar heating distributions from all three data sets were shown to correlate well and demonstrated Reynolds numbers independence when expressed in terms of the Stanton number based on adiabatic wall-recovery enthalpy. Transition onset locations on the leeside centerline were determined from the data and correlated in terms of boundary-layer parameters. Finally turbulent heating augmentation ratios were determined for several body-point locations and correlated in terms of the boundary-layer momentum Reynolds number.

Hollis, Brian R.↗
NASA NTRS2023

The CHROMA Cloud-Top Pressure Retrieval Algorithm for the Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, Ocean Ecosystem (PACE) Satellite Mission

This paper provides the theoretical basis and simulated retrievals for the Cloud Height Retrieval from O2 Molecular Absorption (CHROMA) algorithm. Simulations are performed for the Ocean Color Instrument (OCI), which is the primary payload on the forthcoming NASA Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem (PACE) mission, and the Ocean Land Colour Instrument (OLCI) currently flying on the Sentinel 3 satellites. CHROMA is a Bayesian approach which simultaneously retrieves cloud optical thickness (COT), cloud-top pressure and height (CTP and CTH respectively), and (with a significant prior constraint) surface albedo. Simulated retrievals suggest that the sensor and algorithm should be able to meet the PACE mission goal for CTP error, which is ±60 mb for 65 % of opaque (COT ≥3) single-layer clouds on global average. CHROMA will provide pixel-level uncertainty estimates, which are demonstrated to have skill at telling low-error situations from high-error ones. CTP uncertainty estimates are well-calibrated in magnitude, although COT uncertainty is overestimated relative to observed errors. OLCI performance is found to be slightly better than OCI overall, demonstrating that it is a suitable proxy for the latter in advance of PACE's launch. CTP error is only weakly sensitive to correct cloud phase identification or assumed ice crystal habit/roughness. As with other similar algorithms, for simulated retrievals of multi-layer systems consisting of optically thin cirrus clouds above liquid clouds, retrieved height tends to be underestimated because the satellite signal is dominated by the optically thicker lower layer. Total (liquid plus ice) COT also becomes underestimated in these situations. However, retrieved CTP becomes closer to that of the upper ice layer for ice COT ≈3 or higher.

PACE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluating the Potential and Challenges of an Uncertainty Quantification Method for Long Short–Term Memory Models for Soil Moisture Predictions

Recently, recurrent deep networks have shown promise to harness newly available satellite–sensed data for long–term soil moisture projections. However, to be useful in forecasting, deep networks must also provide uncertainty estimates. Here we evaluated Monte Carlo dropout with an input–dependent data noise term (MCD+N), an efficient uncertainty estimation framework originally developed in computer vision, for hydrologic time series predictions. MCD+N simultaneously estimates a heteroscedastic input–dependent data noise term (a trained error model attributable to observational noise) and a network weight uncertainty term (attributable to insufficiently constrained model parameters). Although MCD+N has appealing features, many heuristic approximations were employed during its derivation, and rigorous evaluations and evidence of its asserted capability to detect dissimilarity were lacking. To address this, we provided an in–depth evaluation of the scheme's potential and limitations. We showed that for reproducing soil moisture dynamics recorded by the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission, MCD+N indeed gave a good estimate of predictive error, provided that we tuned a hyperparameter and used a representative training data set. The input–dependent term responded strongly to observational noise, while the model term clearly acted as a detector for physiographic dissimilarity from the training data, behaving as intended. However, when the training and test data were characteristically different, the input–dependent term could be misled, undermining its reliability. Additionally, due to the data–driven nature of the model, data noise also influences network weight uncertainty, and therefore the two uncertainty terms are correlated. Altogether, this approach has promise, but care is needed to interpret the results.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Beyond Point Estimates: Benchmarking Uncertainty Quantification Methods on the AION-1 Astronomical Foundation Model

Foundation models for astronomical surveys offer powerful learned representations that can be transferred to downstream regression tasks such as galaxy property estimation. However, point predictions alone are insufficient for scientific inference; reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential. We compare seven UQ methods on galaxy property regression using frozen AION-1 foundation-model embeddings, predicting redshift, stellar mass, stellar-population age, gas-phase metallicity, and specific star-formation rate, from Legacy Survey photometry/imaging and DESI spectra, with PROVABGS-derived labels. Distribution-free conformal methods achieve marginal coverage within $\sim$1 pp of the nominal 90% across all properties, while non-conformal baselines (Deep Ensembles, MC~Dropout) fail to calibrate reliably. Among conformal approaches, Conformalized Quantile Regression (CQR) delivers the best coverage in the bin with the poorest model predictions. More importantly, only the Locally Valid and Discriminative (LVD) framework -- particularly when operating on AION-1 embeddings -- also provides finite-sample \emph{local validity}, producing intervals that adapt to each galaxy's local prediction difficulty rather than relying on marginal guarantees alone. These results establish conformal prediction, and LVD in particular, as the preferred UQ framework for uncertainty-aware inference on foundation-model embeddings in astrophysics.

Tame-Narvaez, Karla [Fermilab] (ORCID:000000022249↗
DOE OSTI2021

Apparatus and method for optimizing quantifiable behavior in configurable devices and systems

An apparatus and method are provided to perform constrained optimization of a constrained property of an apparatus, which is complex due to having several components, and these components are configurable in real-time. The optimization is achieved by detecting values of the constrained property and a plurality of other properties of the apparatus when the apparatus is configured in a first subset of the plurality of configurations. A model is learned using the detected values of the constrained property. The model represents the constrained property and can also represent other properties as a function of the configurations. The model can also include estimated uncertainties of the constrained property in the model. Then, using the d model and the estimated uncertainties, the optimal configuration can be selected to minimize an error value (e.g., the difference between a desired value and an observed value of the at least one constrained property).

Hoffmann, Henry↗
DOE OSTI2022

Understanding the Accuracy Limitations of Quantifying Methane Emissions Using Other Test Method 33A

Researchers have utilized Other Test Method (OTM) 33A to quantify methane emissions from natural gas infrastructure. Historically, errors have been reported based on a population of measurements compared to known controlled releases of methane. These errors have been reported as 2σ errors of ±70%. However, little research has been performed on the minimum attainable uncertainty of any one measurement. We present two methods of uncertainty estimation. The first was the measurement uncertainty of the state-of-the-art equipment, which was determined to be ±3.8% of the estimate. This was determined from bootstrapped measurements compared to controlled releases. The second approach of uncertainty estimation was a modified Hollinger and Richardson (H&R) method which was developed for quantifying the uncertainty of eddy covariance measurements. Using a modified version of this method applied to OTM 33A measurements, it was determined that uncertainty of any given measurement was ±17%. Combining measurement uncertainty with that of stochasticity produced a total minimum uncertainty of 17.4%. Due to the current nature of stationary single-sensor measurements and the stochasticity of atmospheric data, such uncertainties will always be present. This is critical in understanding the transport of methane emissions and indirect measurements obtained from the natural gas industry.

Heltzel, Robert↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating uncertainty-based active learning for accelerating the generalization of molecular property prediction

Deep learning models have proven to be a powerful tool for the prediction of molecular properties for applications including drug design and the development of energy storage materials. However, in order to learn accurate and robust structure–property mappings, these models require large amounts of data which can be a challenge to collect given the time and resource-intensive nature of experimental material characterization efforts. Additionally, such models fail to generalize to new types of molecular structures that were not included in the model training data. The acceleration of material development through uncertainty-guided experimental design has the promise to significantly reduce the data requirements and enable faster generalization to new types of materials. To evaluate the potential of such approaches for electrolyte design applications, we perform comprehensive evaluation of existing uncertainty quantification methods on the prediction of two relevant molecular properties - aqueous solubility and redox potential. We develop novel evaluation methods to probe the utility of the uncertainty estimates for both in-domain and out-of-domain data sets. Finally, we leverage selected uncertainty estimation methods for active learning to evaluate their capacity to support experimental design.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian inferences of electrical current delivered to shocked transmission lines

Small radius Bdot measurements of electrical current delivered by pulsed power devices are routinely compromised by electrode/convolute plasmas endemic to multiterawatt transmission lines. Inferences of delivered current unaffected by these issues have recently been obtained by numerically optimizing consistency between model predictions and local experimental velocimetry data, but these are only unique for shockless velocity profiles. In the paper we describe a more general Bayesian method capable of inferring current despite the presence of shocks. Additionally, we describe uncertainty estimates and use of the technique on experimental data. This technique is the first to provide uncertainty estimates on the full current trace delivered to an inertial confinement fusion target.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Lung Cancer in the Mayak Workers Cohort: Risk Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis

The workers at the Mayak nuclear facility near Ozyorsk, Russia are a primary source of information about exposure to radiation at low-dose rates, since they were subject to protracted exposures to external gamma rays and to internal exposures from plutonium inhalation. Here we re-examine lung cancer mortality rates and assess the effects of external gamma and internal plutonium exposures using recently developed Monte Carlo dosimetry systems. Using individual lagged mean annual lung doses computed from the dose realizations, we fit excess relative risk (ERR) models to the lung cancer mortality data for the Mayak Workers Cohort using risk-modeling software. We then used the corrected information matrix (CIM) approach to widen the confidence intervals of ERR by taking into account the uncertainty in doses represented by multiple realizations from the Monte Carlo dosimetry systems. Findings of this work revealed that there were 930 lung cancer deaths during follow-up. Plutonium lung doses (but not gamma doses) were generally higher in the new dosimetry systems than those used in the previous analysis. This led to a reduction in the risk per unit dose compared to prior estimates. The estimated ERR/Gy for external gamma-ray exposure was 0.19 (95% CI: 0.07 to 0.31) for both sexes combined, while the ERR/Gy for internal exposures based on mean plutonium doses were 3.5 (95% CI: 2.3 to 4.6) and 8.9 (95% CI: 3.4 to 14) for males and females at attained age 60. Accounting for uncertainty in dose had little effect on the confidence intervals for the ERR associated with gamma-ray exposure, but had a marked impact on confidence intervals, particularly the upper bounds, for the effect of plutonium exposure [adjusted 95% CIs: 1.5 to 8.9 for males and 2.7 to 28 for females]. In conclusion, lung cancer rates increased significantly with both external gamma-ray and internal plutonium exposures. Accounting for the effects of dose uncertainty markedly increased the width of the confidence intervals for the plutonium dose response but had little impact on the external gamma dose effect estimate. Adjusting risk estimate confidence intervals using CIM provides a solution to the important problem of dose uncertainty. This work demonstrates, for the first time, that it is possible and practical to use our recently developed CIM method to make such adjustments in a large cohort study.

uncertainty, radiation risk estimation, Mayak Prod↗