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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1999

Impact of Model Uncertainties on Quantitative Analysis of FUV Auroral Images: Peak Production Height

We demonstrate that small uncertainties in the modeled height of peak production for FUV emissions can lead to significant uncertainties in the analysis of these sai-ne emissions. In particular, an uncertainty of only 3 km in the peak production height can lead to a 50% uncertainty in the mean auroral energy deduced from the images. This altitude uncertainty is comparable to differences in different auroral deposition models currently used for UVI analysis. Consequently, great care must be taken in quantitative photometric analysis and interpretation of FUV auroral images.

Germany, G. A.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Probabilistic Risk Analysis and Margin Process for a Flexible Thermal Protection System

Atmospheric entry vehicle thermal protection systems are margined due to the uncertainties that exist in entry aeroheating environments and the thermal response of the materials and structures. Entry vehicle thermal protections systems are traditionally over-margined for the heat loads that are experienced along the entry trajectory by designing to survive stacked worst-case scenarios. Additionally, the conventional heat shield design and margin process offers very little insight into the risk of over-temperature during flight and the corresponding reliability of the heat shield performance. A probabilistic margin process can be used to appropriately margin the thermal protection system based on rigorously calculated risk of failure. This probabilistic margin process allows engineers to make informed aeroshell design, entry-trajectory design, and risk trades while preventing excessive margin from being applied. This study presents the methods of the probabilistic margin process and how the uncertainty analysis is used to determine the reliability of the entry vehicle thermal protection system and associated risks of failure.

Tobin, Steven A.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Uncertainty Estimation Cheat Sheet for Probabilistic Risk Assessment

Quantitative results for aerospace engineering problems are influenced by many sources of uncertainty. Uncertainty analysis aims to make a technical contribution to decision-making through the quantification of uncertainties in the relevant variables as well as through the propagation of these uncertainties up to the result. Uncertainty can be thought of as a measure of the 'goodness' of a result and is typically represented as statistical dispersion. This paper will explain common measures of centrality and dispersion; and-with examples-will provide guidelines for how they may be estimated to ensure effective technical contributions to decision-making.

Britton, Paul↗
NASA NTRS2019

Multi-Band Atmospheric Correction Algorithm for Ocean Color Retrievals

NASA's current Atmospheric Correction (AC) algorithm for ocean color utilizes two bands and their ratio in the Near Infrared (NIR) to estimate aerosol reflectance and aerosol type. The algorithm then extrapolates the spectral dependence of aerosol reflectance to the visible wavelengths based on modeled spectral dependence of the identified aerosol type. Future advanced ocean color sensors, such as the Ocean Color Instrument (OCI) that will be carried on the Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, and ocean Ecosystem (PACE) satellite, will be capable of measuring the hyperspectral radiance from 340 to 890 nm at 5-nm spectral resolution and at 7 discrete Short-wave Infrared (SWIR) channels: 940, 1038,1250, 1378, 1615, 2130, and 2260 nm. To optimally employ this unprecedented instrument capability, we propose an improved AC algorithm that utilizes all atmospheric-window channels in the NIR to SWIR spectral range to reduce the uncertainty in the AC process. A theoretical uncertainty analysis of this, namely Multi-Band AC (MBAC), indicates that the algorithm can reduce the uncertainty in remote sensing reflectance (Rrs) retrievals of the ocean caused by sensor random noise. Furthermore, in optically complex waters, where the NIR signal is affected by contributions from highly-reflective turbid waters, the MBAC algorithm can be adaptively weighted to the strongly-absorbing SWIR channels to enable improved ocean color retrievals in coastal waters. We provide here a description of the algorithm and demonstrate the improved performance in ocean color retrievals, relative to the current NASA standard AC algorithm, through comparison with field measurements and assessment of propagated uncertainties in applying the MBAC algorithm to MODIS and simulated PACE OCI data.

PACE↗
NASA NTRS2014

Study of Aerothermodynamic Modeling Issues Relevant to High-Speed Sample Return Vehicles

This paper examines the application of state-of-the-art coupled ablation and radiation simulations to highspeed sample return vehicles, such as those returning from Mars or an asteroid. A defining characteristic of these entries is that the surface recession rates and temperatures are driven by nonequilibrium convective and radiative heating through a boundary layer with significant surface blowing and ablation products. Measurements relevant to validating the simulation of these phenomena are reviewed and the Stardust entry is identified as providing the best relevant measurements. A coupled ablation and radiation flowfield analysis is presented that implements a finite-rate surface chemistry model. Comparisons between this finite-rate model and a equilibrium ablation model show that, while good agreement is seen for diffusion-limited oxidation cases, the finite-rate model predicts up to 50% lower char rates than the equilibrium model at sublimation conditions. Both the equilibrium and finite rate models predict significant negative mass flux at the surface due to sublimation of atomic carbon. A sensitivity analysis to flowfield and surface chemistry rates show that, for a sample return capsule at 10, 12, and 14 km/s, the sublimation rates for C and C3 provide the largest changes to the convective flux, radiative flux, and char rate. A parametric uncertainty analysis of the radiative heating due to radiation modeling parameters indicates uncertainties ranging from 27% at 10 km/s to 36% at 14 km/s. Applying the developed coupled analysis to the Stardust entry results in temperatures within 10% of those inferred from observations, and final recession values within 20% of measurements, which improves upon the 60% over-prediction at the stagnation point obtained through an uncoupled analysis. Emission from CN Violet is shown to be over-predicted by nearly and order-of-magnitude, which is consistent with the results of previous independent analyses. Finally, the coupled analysis is applied to a 14 km/s Earth entry representative of a Mars sample return. Although the radiative heating provides a larger fraction of the total heating, the influence of ablation and radiation on the flowfield are shown to be similar to Stardust.

Johnston, Christopher O.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Helium Mass Spectrometer Leak Detection: A Method to Quantify Total Measurement Uncertainty

In applications where leak rates of components or systems are evaluated against a leak rate requirement, the uncertainty of the measured leak rate must be included in the reported result. However, in the helium mass spectrometer leak detection method, the sensitivity, or resolution, of the instrument is often the only component of the total measurement uncertainty noted when reporting results. To address this shortfall, a measurement uncertainty analysis method was developed that includes the leak detector unit's resolution, repeatability, hysteresis, and drift, along with the uncertainty associated with the calibration standard. In a step-wise process, the method identifies the bias and precision components of the calibration standard, the measurement correction factor (K-factor), and the leak detector unit. Together these individual contributions to error are combined and the total measurement uncertainty is determined using the root-sum-square method. It was found that the precision component contributes more to the total uncertainty than the bias component, but the bias component is not insignificant. For helium mass spectrometer leak rate tests where unit sensitivity alone is not enough, a thorough evaluation of the measurement uncertainty such as the one presented herein should be performed and reported along with the leak rate value.

error analysis↗
NASA NTRS2005

Thermal Conductivity Based on Modified Laser Flash Measurement

The laser flash method is a standard method for thermal diffusivity measurement. It employs single-pulse heating of one side of a thin specimen and measures the temperature response of the other side. The thermal diffusivity of the specimen can be obtained based on a one-dimensional transient heat transfer analysis. This paper reports the development of a theory that includes a transparent reference layer with known thermal property attached to the back of sample. With the inclusion of heat conduction from the sample to the reference layer in the theoretical analysis, the thermal conductivity and thermal diffusivity of sample can be extracted from the temperature response data. Furthermore, a procedure is established to select two points from the data to calculate these properties. The uncertainty analysis indicates that this method can be used with acceptable levels of uncertainty.

Lin, Bochuan↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Features of Afterbody Radiative Heating for Jupiter Entry

In this extended abstract, a preliminary analysis of a trajectory-based heating and ablation study in the afterbody of a Jovian entry probe is presented. The radiative flux in the afterbody impinging on the backshell of the probe is investigated with and without the presence of ablation product gas. The heritage tangent-slab approximation for radiative heating is shown to underpredict the radiative heating by as much as 50% in the afterbody making the highfidelity, yet computationally expensive, ray-tracing approach necessary to accurately predict the radiative heating predictions. An investigation into the merits of employing the ray-tracing approach for the prediction of the divergence of radiative flux in the afterbody flow field will be presented in the final manuscript. Nonequilibrium effects in the afterbody region will be investigated in the final manuscript including the impact of electron-ion recombination rates. To bound the problem based on the best available knowledge, an uncertainty analysis will be performed. Sources of uncertainty are identified in the ablation modeling, radiation modeling, flowfield kinetics, and thermodynamic properties of select species.

Thermophysics↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

TPSAS-NF1676L-12725-DND

Uncertainty analysis and robust design - increase confidence and consistency in aerospace vehicle safety predictions by developing improved methods for quantifying and managing uncertainty. Quantifying: uncertainty modeling (model uncertainty based on experimental data, simulations and/or expert opinion) and uncertainty propagation (given uncertainty models of a system’s inputs, how to propagate them through system models, to efficiently evaluate the corresponding system’s outputs?). Managing: robust design (generate designs that robustly accommodate uncertainty) and uncertainty decomposition (identify uncertainties that contribute the most to performance degradation and determine the parameters that should (not) be modeled as uncertain).

Sean P Kenny↗
NASA NTRS2018

Uncertainty in Inverted Pendulum Thrust Measurements

An uncertainty analysis of a common configuration of electric propulsion thrust stand is presented. The analysis applies to inverted pendulum thrust stands operating in a null-coil configuration with in-situ calibration. Several sources of bias and precision uncertainty are discussed, propagated, and combined to form conservative estimates of the relative and absolute thrust uncertainties. A case study of the NASA Glenn Research Center Vacuum Facility 6 thrust stand is presented. For the thruster investigated, the uncertainty was estimated to be +/-6.9 mN over the entire span of thrust. This uncertainty represents a maximum instrument bias introduced by the thrust stand. The paper does not address repeatability of actual thrust measurements, as this is generally beyond the influence of the thrust stand and can be dependent on a large number of factors.

Mackey, J.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Uncertainty in Inverted Pendulum Thrust Measurements

An uncertainty analysis of a common configuration of electric propulsion thrust stand is presented. The analysis applies to inverted pendulum thrust stands operating in a null-coil configuration with in-situ calibration. Several sources of bias and precision uncertainty are discussed, propagated, and combined to form conservative estimates of the relative and absolute thrust uncertainties. A case study of the NASA Glenn Research Center Vacuum Facility 6 thrust stand is presented. For the thruster investigated, the uncertainty was estimated to be ±6.9 mN over the entire span of thrust. This uncertainty represents a maximum instrument bias introduced by the thrust stand. The paper does not address repeatability of actual thrust measurements, as this is generally beyond the influence of the thrust stand and can be dependent on a large number of factors.

Mackey, Jonathan A.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Uncertainty in Inverted Pendulum Thrust Measurements

An uncertainty analysis of a common configuration of electric propulsion thrust stand is presented. The analysis applies to inverted pendulum thrust stands operating in a null-coil configuration with in-situ calibration. Several sources of bias and precision uncertainty are discussed, propagated, and combined to form conservative estimates of the relative and absolute thrust uncertainties. A case study of the NASA Glenn Research Center Vacuum Facility 6 thrust stand is presented. For the thruster investigated, the uncertainty was estimated to be ±6.9mN over the entire span of thrust. This uncertainty represents a maximum instrument bias introduced by the thrust stand. The paper does not address repeatability of actual thrust measurements, as this is generally beyond the influence of the thrust stand and can be dependent on a large number of factors.

Mackey, Jonathan A.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Stability Analysis of the Flow Over a Swept Forward-Facing Step Using PIV Base Flows

Step excrescences are a type of surface imperfection encountered on swept wings of commercial aircraft, commonly because accessibility requirements prevent creating the wing’s surface from a single panel. If the step height is too large, super-critical, the flow can undergo an early transition to turbulence, which can be highly detrimental for the performance of the wing. In the case of a forward-facing step on a swept wing in a low-disturbance environment, stationary crossflow vortices can develop a significant amplitude upstream of the step and hence dominate the structure of the boundary-layer flow over the step. The main goal of the present investigation is to illuminate the path to transition supported by the fascinatingly complex flow field in the direct downstream vicinity of a step with a super critical height. The high-resolution, stereographic Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) measurement dataset presently available for this flow field provides a complete description of the laminar flow for the execution of BiGlobal stability analysis in a plane parallel to the step. Although the notorious sensitivity of stability results to the description of the base flow demands a very careful uncertainty analysis of those results, it is argued that this very fact can be leveraged to produce new insight into the supported perturbation dynamics. In performing the analysis, several unsteady mode families are discovered that display the explosive perturbation expected for early transition to be induced. In considering domain widths equal to an integer-multiple of the incident crossflow-vortex wavelength and analyzing an extent of 5 crossflow-vortex wavelengths parallel to the step, it is found that the stability results converge while increasing the domain width. It is demonstrated, moreover, that the results for the wider domains can be approximated by appropriately averaging the results on neighboring single-crossflow-vortex-wavelength domains covering the same region. Besides being useful for computational purposes, this observed property suggests interpreting the instability mechanism as a distorted primary mechanism rather than a “proper” secondary mechanism. This follows in the context of the secondary in-stability analysis of three-dimensional boundary layers, because the secondary mechanism is usually characterized by being localized in a pocket of strong shear, while the distorted primary mechanism typically has an infinite support in the direction parallel to the step. Even though the growth rates are found to be sensitive to the interrogation-window size inherent to the PIV post-processing procedure, the spatial structure of the eigenfunctions is found to be relatively insensitive. Lastly, the spatial structure of the eigenfunctions corresponding to all velocity components are matched with the shape functions determined by computing the Spectral Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (SPOD) of a time-resolved measurement of the perturbation content.

forward-facing step↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Probabilistic Modeling of a Three-Stage Human Landing System Architecture

Unmitigated uncertainties are known to have previously led to failed development programs; in order to combat these uncertainties, risks and their impacts must be understood and handled to ensure program success. In this paper, a probabilistic methodology to handle uncertainties is demonstrated on a three-element Human Landing System (HLS) concept, which allows tracking of current best estimates of the vehicle’s performance and assessment of its robustness against uncertainties. This methodology has two key parts: first, the creation of a dynamic architecture model of a three-element HLS concept; and second, its use with surrogate modeling and range estimating techniques to capture and propagate uncertainties. The DYnamic Rocket EQuation Tool (DYREQT), a space systems synthesis and sizing framework used by NASA, was used as to model the HLS architecture. For the probabilistic analysis, uncertainties of interest within the HLS concept were enumerated and represented as parameters within the DYREQT model as inputs for vehicle stages or mission profile events. Range estimating — a probabilistic method that combines Monte Carlo sampling, focus on critical parameters, and heuristics to assess risk and opportunities — is then adapted with operational parameters as well as vehicle parameters in the DYREQT model to capture mission uncertainty alongside vehicle uncertainty. To perform the range estimation portion of this methodology, the DYREQT model was sampled using a Design of Experiments (DoE) to efficiently explore the architecture design space with respect to the set of uncertainty parameters. Then, the results were used to create surrogate models, multivariate regressions that can visualize hypercube trends in the design space, of the architecture with respect to the uncertainty parameters. Using a correlation matrix constructed for the uncertainty parameters, previously independent samples were transformed to perform a Correlated Monte Carlo on the surrogate models. This probabilistic methodology was proved to provide insight into the underlying uncertainties of the three-element HLS architecture.

Stephanie Y Zhu↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Probabilistic Modeling of a Three-Stage Human Landing System Architecture

Unmitigated uncertainties are known to have previously led to failed development programs; in order to combat these uncertainties, risks and their impacts must be understood and handled to ensure program success. In this paper, a probabilistic methodology to handle uncertainties is demonstrated on a three-element Human Landing System (HLS) concept, which allows tracking of current best estimates of the vehicle’s performance and assessment of its robustness against uncertainties. This methodology has two key parts: first, the creation of a dynamic architecture model of a three-element HLS concept; and second, its use with surrogate modeling and range estimating techniques to capture and propagate uncertainties. The DYnamic Rocket EQuation Tool (DYREQT), a space systems synthesis and sizing framework used by NASA, was used as to model the HLS architecture. For the probabilistic analysis, uncertainties of interest within the HLS concept were enumerated and represented as parameters within the DYREQT model as inputs for vehicle stages or mission profile events. Range estimating — a probabilistic method that combines Monte Carlo sampling, focus on critical parameters, and heuristics to assess risk and opportunities — is then adapted with operational parameters as well as vehicle parameters in the DYREQT model to capture mission uncertainty alongside vehicle uncertainty. To perform the range estimation portion of this methodology, the DYREQT model was sampled using a Design of Experiments (DoE) to efficiently explore the architecture design space with respect to the set of uncertainty parameters. Then, the results were used to create surrogate models, multivariate regressions that can visualize hypercube trends in the design space, of the architecture with respect to the uncertainty parameters. Using a correlation matrix constructed for the uncertainty parameters, previously independent samples were transformed to perform a Correlated Monte Carlo on the surrogate models. This probabilistic methodology was proved to provide insight into the underlying uncertainties of the three-element HLS architecture.

Stephanie Y. Zhu↗
NASA NTRS1996

Effect of Correlated Precision Errors on Uncertainty of a Subsonic Venturi Calibration

An uncertainty analysis performed in conjunction with the calibration of a subsonic venturi for use in a turbine test facility produced some unanticipated results that may have a significant impact in a variety of test situations. Precision uncertainty estimates using the preferred propagation techniques in the applicable American National Standards Institute/American Society of Mechanical Engineers standards were an order of magnitude larger than precision uncertainty estimates calculated directly from a sample of results (discharge coefficient) obtained at the same experimental set point. The differences were attributable to the effect of correlated precision errors, which previously have been considered negligible. An analysis explaining this phenomenon is presented. The article is not meant to document the venturi calibration, but rather to give a real example of results where correlated precision terms are important. The significance of the correlated precision terms could apply to many test situations.

Hudson, S. T.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses of Duct Propagation Models

This paper presents results of uncertainty and sensitivity analyses conducted to assess the relative merits of three duct propagation codes. Results from this study are intended to support identification of a "working envelope" within which to use the various approaches underlying these propagation codes. This investigation considers a segmented liner configuration that models the NASA Langley Grazing Incidence Tube, for which a large set of measured data was available. For the uncertainty analysis, the selected input parameters (source sound pressure level, average Mach number, liner impedance, exit impedance, static pressure and static temperature) are randomly varied over a range of values. Uncertainty limits (95% confidence levels) are computed for the predicted values from each code, and are compared with the corresponding 95% confidence intervals in the measured data. Generally, the mean values of the predicted attenuation are observed to track the mean values of the measured attenuation quite well and predicted confidence intervals tend to be larger in the presence of mean flow. A two-level, six factor sensitivity study is also conducted in which the six inputs are varied one at a time to assess their effect on the predicted attenuation. As expected, the results demonstrate the liner resistance and reactance to be the most important input parameters. They also indicate the exit impedance is a significant contributor to uncertainty in the predicted attenuation.

Nark, Douglas M.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Space Radiation Heart Disease Risk Estimates for Lunar and Mars Missions

The NASA Space Radiation Program performs research on the risks of late effects from space radiation for cancer, neurological disorders, cataracts, and heart disease. For mortality risks, an aggregate over all risks should be considered as well as projection of the life loss per radiation induced death. We report on a triple detriment life-table approach to combine cancer and heart disease risks. Epidemiology results show extensive heterogeneity between populations for distinct components of the overall heart disease risks including hypertension, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and cerebrovascular diseases. We report on an update to our previous heart disease estimates for Heart disease (ICD9 390-429) and Stroke (ICD9 430-438), and other sub-groups using recent meta-analysis results for various exposed radiation cohorts to low LET radiation. Results for multiplicative and additive risk transfer models are considered using baseline rates for US males and female. Uncertainty analysis indicated heart mortality risks as low as zero, assuming a threshold dose for deterministic effects, and projections approaching one-third of the overall cancer risk. Medan life-loss per death estimates were significantly less than that of solid cancer and leukemias. Critical research questions to improve risks estimates for heart disease are distinctions in mechanisms at high doses (>2 Gy) and low to moderate doses (<2 Gy), and data and basic understanding of radiation doserate and quality effects, and individual sensitivity.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗