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NASA NTRS1995

Recent trends in ozone in the upper stratosphere: Implications for chlorine chemistry

We have studied the implications of recent trends in the annual mean and the amplitude of the annual harmonic of ozone in the upper stratosphere from the 15 years of the combined data from the Nimbus-7 SBUV and the NOAA-11 SBUV/2 instruments. This was done in the context of the GSFC 2D model predictions of these trends which are based on plausible scenarios of anthropogenic Cly increase in the atmosphere. The comparison of the observed and model-estimated annual mean ozone trends show some similarity in their latitude and altitude characteristics. Both the model and data show a maximum ozone decrease of -6 to -10 % per decade at high latitudes in the upper stratosphere. However, there are also significant differences between the observed and computed trends which may be related to both the model uncertainty and the uncertainty in correcting for the long term instrument drift. The observations also suggest a decrease of 10-25 % per decade in the annual amplitude of ozone at 2 mb between 40 deg - 60 deg in both hemispheres, with a relatively larger interannual variability in the northern hemisphere. These values are in general agreement with the model predictions and thus provide additional support in favor of the chlorine induced changes in ozone in the upper stratosphere.

Chandra, Sushil↗

NASA NTRS1998

Trends in the Annual Frequency of Atlantic Basin Intense Hurricanes: Implications for the Near-Term

During the interval of 1944-1997, 120 intense hurricanes (category 3, 4, or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale) have been observed in the Atlantic basin. These intense hurricanes have had an observed annual frequency of 0-7 events per year (having a mean, mode, and median equal to about 2 events per year), being preferentially lower during El Ninio years and higher during non-El Ninio years. Also, it has recently been established that a long-term downward trend in the annual frequency of intense hurricanes, spanning about five decades, has taken place, although this trend can, alternatively, be explained as a shift from a more active state prior to the mid 1960's to a less active state thereafter (rather than as a simple linear decline). In this paper, on the basis of 10-yr moving averages, the long4erm trend of the frequency of intense hurricanes is compared against one for the annual mean temperature at Armagh Observatory, Northern Ireland (which serves as a proxy for climatic change). Interestingly, the two sets of 10-yr moving averages correlate extremely well, especially, when incorporating a slight 6-yr lag between them (with temperature leading; r = 0.90). This suggests that the current leading trend of temperature, which had been downward, but now is upward, may portend a return to the more active state for intense hurricanes. Thus, the 1998 season (presuming the abatement of El Ninio prior to the start of the hurricane season), and for several years thereafter (at least, into the early years of the next millennium), may have an annual frequency of intense hurricanes that is commensurate with the previously observed active state that was seen prior to the mid 1960's. If true, then, the shift to the more active state, probably, occurred in the mid-to-late 1980's, apparently, having gone undetected because of the masking, or modulating, effect of El Ninio, which has been rampant since the mid-to-late 1980's.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Long-Term Trends in the Concentrations of SF6, CHClF2, and COF2 in the Lower Stratosphere from Analysis of High-Resolution Infrared Solar Occultation Spectra

Long-term trends in the concentrations of SF6, CHClF2 (CFC-22), and COF2 in the lower stratosphere have been derived from analysis of ca. 1980 and more recent infrared solar occultation spectra recorded near 32 deg N latitude at approx. 0.02/ cm resolution. Consistent sets of line parameters and spectral calibration methods have been used in the retrievals to minimize systematic error effects. Quoted error limits are 1 sigma estimated precisions. The SF6 and CHClF2 results are based on spectra recorded by balloon-borne interferometers in March 1981 and June 1988 and a comparison of these results with the Atmospheric Trace Molecule Spectroscopy (ATMOS) Experiment/Spacelab 3 measurements obtained in May 1985 near 30 deg N latitude. In the 13-18 km altitude range the mean measured SF6 mixing ratio in parts per trillion by volume (pptv) increased from 1.17 +/- 0.21 in March 1981 to 2.02 +/- 0.20 pptv in June 1988, and the CHClF2 mixing ratio below 15 km altitude increased from 51 +/- 8 pptv in March 1981 to 102 +/- 10 pptv in June 1988. The CHClF2 retrievals used new empirical CHClF2 line parameters derived from 0.03/cm resolution laboratory spectra recorded at six temperatures between 203 and 293 K; the derived mixing ratios are approx. 30% higher than obtained with earlier sets of line parameters, thereby removing a large discrepancy noted previously between IR and in situ measurements of CHClF2. Assuming an exponential growth model for fitting the trends, SF6 and CHClF2 mean increase rates of 7.4% +/- 1.9% and 9.4% +/- 1.3% /year, are obtained, respectively, which correspond to cumulative increases by factors of approx. 1.7 and -2.0 in the concentrations of these gases over the 7.2-year measurement period. Analysis of spectra recorded in October 1979 and April 1989 yields COF2 volume mixing ratios that are respectively 0.44 +/- 0.17 and 1.21 +/- 0.24 times the ATMOS/Spacelab 3 values, from which an average COF2 increase rate of 10.3 +/- 1.8%/ year over this time period has been estimated. The present results are compared with previously reported observations and trends and with one-dimensional model calculations. The model calculated trends are in reasonably good agreement with the observations.

Rinsland, C. P.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Decadal Variability and Temperature Trends in the Middle Atmosphere From Historical Rocketsonde Data

Observational studies were performed using historical rocketsonde data to investigate long-term temperature trends, solar-cycle variations, and interactions between tropical and extratropical latitudes in the middle atmosphere. Evidence from tropical, subtropical, and midlatitude North American rocketsonde stations indicated a consistent downward trend over 25 years, with a solar cycle component superposed. The trend is about -1.4 to -2.0 K per decade and the amplitude of the decadal oscillation is about 1.1 K. Prior to trend derivation it was necessary for us to correct temperatures for aerodynamic heating in the early years. The empirically derived correction profile agrees well with a theoretical profile of Krumins and Lyons. A study was also performed of the correlation between equatorial winds and north polar temperatures in winter, showing that the entire stratospheric wind profile near the equator -- including the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and stratopause semiannual oscillation (SAO) -- is important to the extratropical flow, not merely the QBO component as previously thought. A strong correlation was discovered between winter polar temperatures and equatorial winds in the upper stratosphere during the preceding September, suggesting a role for the second cycle of the SAO.

Dunkerton, Timothy J.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Uncertainties in Upper Stratospheric Ozone Trends from 1979 to 1996

The time series of differences in coincident measurements of ozone by Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) and by Solar Backscattered Ultraviolet (SBUV), SBUV/2, Umkehr and Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) are analyzed, and the slopes in the differences are calculated. SAGE ozone measurements are also compared against those by HALOE. The purpose of these comparisons is to look for statistically significant nonzero slopes which could indicate long-term calibration problems in one or more of the measurement systems. It is found that the slopes are remarkably similar between the Northern and Southern Hemisphere midlatitudes, and, apart from a few exceptions, the slopes are also similar in the tropics. Slopes of MLS-SAGE differences and HALOE-SAGE trends from approximately 1992 to 1996 have values of approximately -0.5 +/- 0.4%/yr (95% confidence limits) in Umkehr layers 7-9 (which are centered at approx. 37, 42, and 47 km altitude). Umkehr-SAGE slopes for 1979-1996, however, are almost all positive and in the range -0.1 - 0.41%/yr for Umkehr layers 4 - 8, while SBUV-SAGE slopes for 1979-1989 are essentially zero in layers 4 - 7 and 0.3-0.4%/yr in layers 8 and 9. Averaging all these results with SBUV-SAGE 11 slopes from 1985 to 1989, the other sensors minus SAGE slopes are most likely between 0.2 and -0.2%/yr1 from approx. 20 to 40 km altitude. The results indicate slightly negative slopes in Umkehr layers 5-7 and positive slopes in the other three layers. There thus appears to be no overall drift in the SAGE ozone measurements from 1979 to 1996, but SAGE sunrise/sunset trend differences greater than 40 km altitude, combined with the more accurate SBUV-SAGE slopes for 1979-1989, suggest a most likely slope range of 0.4 to -0.4%/yr between 40 and 50 km altitude. SBUV/2 measurements from 1989 to 1994 have an upward trend with respect to SAGE measurements of approx. 0.7% /yr with some altitudinal structure; this slope exceeds the estimated 95% uncertainties on the SBUV/2 trends.

Cunnold, D. M.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Analysis of 1970-1995 Trends in Tropospheric Ozone at Northern Hemisphere Midlatitudes with the GEOS-CHEM Model

I ] The causes of trends in tropospheric ozone at Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes from 1970 to 1995 are investigated with the GEOS-CHEM model, a global three-dimensional model of the troposphere driven by assimilated meteorological observations from the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS). This model is used to investigate the sensitivity of tropospheric ozone with respect to (1) changes in the anthropogenic emission of nitrogen oxides and nonmethane hydrocarbons, (2) increases in methane concentrations, (3) variations in the stratospheric source of ozone, (4) changes in solar radiation resulting from stratospheric ozone depletion, and ( 5 ) increases in tropospheric temperatures. Model results indicate that local increases in NO, emissions have caused most of the increases seen in lower tropospheric ozone over Europe and Japan. Increases in methane are responsible for roughly one fifth of the anthropogenically induced increase in tropospheric ozone at northern midlatitudes. However, changes in ozone precursors do not adequately explain either the spatial differences in observed ozone trends across midlatitudes or the observed decreases in ozone over Canada throughout the troposphere. We argue that ozone depletion in the lowermost stratosphere is likely to have reduced the stratospheric source by as much as 30% from the early 1970s to the mid 1990s. Model simulations that account for such a reduction along with reported changes in anthropogenic emissions show steep declines of ozone in the upper troposphere and variable increases in the lower troposphere that are more consistent with observations. Differential temperature trends in summer between North America and Europe may account for at least some of the remaining spatial variation in tropospheric ozone trends. Increases in ultraviolet (UV) radiation due to stratospheric ozone depletion do not appear to significantly reduce tropospheric ozone, except at midlatitudes in the Southern Hemisphere following the breakup of the ozone hole.

Fusco, Andrew C.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Detecting Trends in Tropical Rainfall Characteristics, 1979-2003

From analyses of blended space-based and ground-based global rainfall data, we found increasing trends in the occurrence of extreme heavy and light rain events, coupled to a decreasing trend in moderate rain events in the tropics during 1979-2003. The trends are consistent with a shift in the large-scale circulation associated with a) a relatively uniform increase in warm rain over the tropical oceans, b) enhanced ice-phase rain over the near-equatorial oceans, and c) reduced mixed-phase rain over the tropical ocean and land regions. Due to the large compensation among different rain categories, the total tropical rainfall trend remained undetectable.

Lau, K. M.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Contemporary Trends in the Acid-Base Status of the Two Acid-Sensitive Streams in Western Maryland

Recovery of streamwater acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) resulting from declines in regional acid deposition was examined using contemporary (1990-2005) data from two long-term monitoring stations located on the Appalachian Plateau in western Maryland, U.S. Two computational methods were used to estimate daily, monthly, and annual fluxes and discharge-weighted concentrations of ANC, sulfate, nitrate, and base cations over the period of record, and two statistical methods were used to evaluate long-term trends in fluxes and concentrations. The methods used to estimate concentrations, as well as the, statistical techniques, produced very similar results, underlining the robustness of the identified trends. We found clear evidence that streamwater sulfate concentrations have declined at an average rate of about 3 (microns)eq L(exp -1) yr(exp -1) at the two sites due to a 34% reduction in wet atmospheric sulfur deposition. Trends in nitrate concentrations appear to be related to other watershed factors, especially forest disturbance. The best evidence of recovery is based on a doubling of ANC (from 21 to 42 (microns)eq L(exp -1) at the more acid-sensitive site over the 16-year period. A slowing, or possible reversal, in the sulfate, nitrate, and SBC trends is evident in our data and may portend a decline in the rate of--or end to--further recovery.

Eshleman, Keith N.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Recent Short Term Global Aerosol Trends over Land and Ocean Dominated by Biomass Burning

NASA's MODIS instrument on board the Terra satellite is one of the premier tools to assess aerosol over land and ocean because of its high quality calibration and consistency. We analyze Terra-MODIS's seven year record of aerosol optical depth (AOD) observations to determine whether global aerosol has increased or decreased during this period. This record shows that AOD has decreased over land and increased over ocean. Only the ocean trend is statistically significant and corresponds to an increase in AOD of 0.009, or a 15% increase from background conditions. The strongest increasing trends occur over regions and seasons noted for strong biomass burning. This suggests that biomass burning aerosol dominates the increasing trend over oceans and mitigates the otherwise mostly negative trend over the continents.

Remer, Lorraine A.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Relationship between Trends in Land Precipitation and Tropical SST Gradient

In this study, we examined global zonal/annual mean precipitation trends. Land precipitation trend from 1951 to 2002 shows widespread drying between 10 S to 20 N but the trend from 1977 to 2002 shows partial recovery. Based on general circulation model sensitivity studies, we suggested that these features are driven largely by the meridional SST gradient trend in the tropics. Our idealized CCM3 experiments substantiated that land precipitation is more sensitive to meridional SST gradient than to an overall tropical warming. Various simulations produced for the IPCC 4th assessment report demonstrate that increasing CO2 increases SST in the entire tropics non-uniformly and increases land precipitation only in certain latitude belts, again pointing to the importance of SST gradient change. Temporally varying aerosols in the IPCC simulations alter meridional SST gradient and land precipitation substantially. Anthropogenic aerosol direct solar forcing without its effects on SST is shown by the CCM3 to have weak but non-negligible influence on land precipitation.

Chung, Chul Eddy↗

NASA NTRS2009

Trends and Solar Cycle Effects in Temperature Versus Altitude From the Halogen Occultation Experiment for the Mesosphere and Upper Stratosphere

Fourteen-year time series of mesospheric and upper stratospheric temperatures from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) are analyzed and reported. The data have been binned according to ten-degree wide latitude zones from 40S to 40N and at 10 altitudes from 43 to 80 km-a total of 90 separate time series. Multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis techniques have been applied to those time series. This study focuses on resolving their 11-yr solar cycle (or SC-like) responses and their linear trend terms. Findings for T(z) from HALOE are compared directly with published results from ground-based Rayleigh lidar and rocketsonde measurements. SC-like responses from HALOE compare well with those from lidar station data at low latitudes. The cooling trends from HALOE also agree reasonably well with those from the lidar data for the concurrent decade. Cooling trends of the lower mesosphere from HALOE are not as large as those from rocketsondes and from lidar station time series of the previous two decades, presumably because the changes in the upper stratospheric ozone were near zero during the HALOE time period and did not affect those trends.

Remsberg, Ellis E.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Trending of Overboard Leakage of ISS Cabin Atmosphere

The International Space Station (ISS) overboard leakage of cabin atmosphere is continually tracked to identify new or aggravated leaks and to provide information for planning of nitrogen supply to the ISS. The overboard leakage is difficult to trend with various atmosphere constituents being added and removed. Changes to nitrogen partial pressure is the nominal means of trending the overboard leakage. This paper summarizes the method of the overboard leakage trending and presents findings from the trending.

Schaezler, Ryan N.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Accessing Recent Trend of Land Surface Temperature from Satellite Observations

Land surface temperature (Ts) is an important element to measure the state of terrestrial ecosystems and to study surface energy budgets. In support of the land cover/land use change-related international program MAIRS (Monsoon Asia Integrated Regional Study), we have collected global monthly Ts measured by MODIS since the beginning of the missions. The MODIS Ts time series have approximately 11 years of data from Terra since 2000 and approximately 9 years of data from Aqua since 2002, which makes possible to study the recent climate, such as trend. In this study, monthly climatology from two platforms are calculated and compared with that from AIRS. The spatial patterns of Ts trends are accessed, focusing on the Eurasia region. Furthermore, MODIS Ts trends are compared with those from AIRS and NASA's atmospheric assimilation model, MERRA (Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications). The preliminary results indicate that the recent 8-year Ts trend shows an oscillation-type spatial variation over Eurasia. The pattern is consistent for data from MODIS, AIRS, and MERRA, with the positive center over Eastern Europe, and the negative center over Central Siberia. The calculated climatology and anomaly of MODIS Ts will be integrated into the online visualization system, Giovanni, at NASA GES DISC for easy use by scientists and general public.

Shen, Suhung↗

NASA NTRS2011

Recent Trends of the Tropical Hydrological Cycle Inferred from Global Precipitation Climatology Project and International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project data

Scores of modeling studies have shown that increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere impact the global hydrologic cycle; however, disagreements on regional scales are large, and thus the simulated trends of such impacts, even for regions as large as the tropics, remain uncertain. The present investigation attempts to examine such trends in the observations using satellite data products comprising Global Precipitation Climatology Project precipitation and International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project cloud and radiation. Specifically, evolving trends of the tropical hydrological cycle over the last 20-30 years were identified and analyzed. The results show (1) intensification of tropical precipitation in the rising regions of the Walker and Hadley circulations and weakening over the sinking regions of the associated overturning circulation; (2) poleward shift of the subtropical dry zones (up to 2deg/decade in June-July-August (JJA) in the Northern Hemisphere and 0.3-0.7deg/decade in June-July-August and September-October-November in the Southern Hemisphere) consistent with an overall broadening of the Hadley circulation; and (3) significant poleward migration (0.9-1.7deg/decade) of cloud boundaries of Hadley cell and plausible narrowing of the high cloudiness in the Intertropical Convergence Zone region in some seasons. These results support findings of some of the previous studies that showed strengthening of the tropical hydrological cycle and expansion of the Hadley cell that are potentially related to the recent global warming trends.

Zhou, Y. P.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Trends in Surface Temperature at High Latitudes

The earliest signal of a climate change is expected to be found in the polar regions where warming is expected to be amplified on account of ice-albedo feedbacks associated with the high reflectivity of snow and ice. Because of general inaccessibility, there is a general paucity of in situ data and hence the need to use satellite data to observe the large-scale variability and trends in surface temperature in the region. Among the most important sensors for monitoring surface temperature has been the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) which was first launched in 1978 and has provided continuous thermal infrared data since 1981. The top of the atmosphere data are converted to surface temperature data through various schemes that accounts for the unique atmospheric and surface conditions in the polar regions. Among the highest source of error in the data is cloud masking which is made more difficult in the polar region because of similar Signatures of clouds and snow lice covered areas. The availability of many more channels in the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) launched on board Terra satellite in December 1999 and on board Aqua in May 2002 (e.g., 36 visible and infrared channels compared to 5 for AVHRR) made it possible to minimize the error. Further capabilities were introduced with the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR) which has the appropriate frequency channels for the retrieval of sea surface temperature (SST). The results of analysis of the data show an amplified warming in the Arctic region, compared with global warming. The spatial distribution of warming is, however, not uniform and during the last 3 decades, positive temperature anomalies have been most pronounced in North America, Greenland and the Arctic basin. Some regions of the Arctic such as Siberia and the Bering Sea surprisingly show moderate cooling but this may be because these regions were anomalously warm in the 1980s when the satellite record started. Also, the SST in the Arctic basin is observed to be anomalously high in 2007 when the perennial ice cover declined dramatically to its lowest extent. In the Antarctic, surface temperature trends are much more moderate with the most positive trends occurring in the Antarctic Peninsula and parts of Western Antarctica while some cooling are observed in the Antarctic Plateau and the Ross Sea. The trends in SST in the region is similar to global averages but precipitation from more evaporation may have a key role in the spatial distribution of surface temperature in the ice covered region

Comiso, Josefino C.↗

NASA NTRS2012

FERMI/GLAST Integrated Trending and Plotting System Release 5.0

An Integrated Trending and Plotting System (ITPS) is a trending, analysis, and plotting system used by space missions to determine performance and status of spacecraft and its instruments. ITPS supports several NASA mission operational control centers providing engineers, ground controllers, and scientists with access to the entire spacecraft telemetry data archive for the life of the mission, and includes a secure Web component for remote access. FERMI/GLAST ITPS Release 5.0 features include the option to display dates (yyyy/ddd) instead of orbit numbers along orbital Long-Term Trend (LTT) plot axis, the ability to save statistics from daily production plots as image files, and removal of redundant edit/create Input Definition File (IDF) screens. Other features are a fix to address invalid packet lengths, a change in naming convention of image files in order to use in script, the ability to save all ITPS plot images (from Windows or the Web) as GIF or PNG format, the ability to specify ymin and ymax on plots where previously only the desired range could be specified, Web interface capability to plot IDFs that contain out-oforder page and plot numbers, and a fix to change all default file names to show yyyydddhhmmss time stamps instead of hhmmssdddyyyy. A Web interface capability sorts files based on modification date (with newest one at top), and the statistics block can be displayed via a Web interface. Via the Web, users can graphically view the volume of telemetry data from each day contained in the ITPS archive in the Web digest. The ITPS could be also used in nonspace fields that need to plot data or trend data, including financial and banking systems, aviation and transportation systems, healthcare and educational systems, sales and marketing, and housing and construction.

Ritter, Sheila↗

NASA NTRS2012

Variability and Trends of Aerosol Properties over Kanpur, Northern India using AERONET Data (2001-10)

Natural and anthropogenic aerosols over northern India play an important role in influencing the regional radiation budget, causing climate implications to the overall hydrological cycle of South Asia. In the context of regional climate change and air quality, we discuss aerosol loading variability and trends at Kanpur AERONET station located in the central part of the Indo-Gangetic plains (IGP), during the last decade (2001-10). Ground-based radiometric measurements show an overall increase in column-integrated aerosol optical depth (AOD) on a yearly basis. This upward trend is mainly due to a sustained increase in the seasonal/monthly averaged AOD during the winter (Dec-Feb) and post-monsoon (Oct-Nov) seasons (dominated by anthropogenic emissions). In contrast, a neutral to weak declining trend is observed during late pre-monsoon (Mar-May) and monsoon (Jun-Sep) months, mainly influenced by inter-annual variations of dust outbreaks. A general decrease in coarse-mode aerosols associated with variable dust activity is observed, whereas the statistically significant increasing post-monsoon/winter AOD is reflected in a shift of the columnar size distribution towards relatively larger particles in the accumulation mode. Overall, the present study provides an insight into the pronounced seasonal behavior in aerosol loading trends and, in general, is in agreement with that associating the findings with those recently reported by satellite observations (MODIS and MISR) over northern India. Our results further suggest that anthropogenic emissions (due mainly to fossil-fuel and biomass combustion) over the IGP have continued to increase in the last decade.

AERONET↗

NASA NTRS2014

Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation: Estimates of AOD Trends (2002 - 2012) Over the World's Major Cities Based on the MERRA Aerosol Reanalysis - Volume 32

NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office has extended the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Application (MERRA) tool with five atmospheric aerosol species (sulfates, organic carbon, black carbon, mineral dust and sea salt). This inclusion of aerosol reanalysis data is now known as MERRAero. This study analyses a ten-year period (July 2002 - June 2012) MERRAero aerosol reanalysis applied to the study of aerosol optical depth (AOD) and its trends for the aforementioned aerosol species over the world's major cities (with a population of over 2 million inhabitants). We found that a proportion of various aerosol species in total AOD exhibited a geographical dependence. Cities in industrialized regions (North America, Europe, central and eastern Asia) are characterized by a strong proportion of sulfate aerosols. Organic carbon aerosols are dominant over cities which are located in regions where biomass burning frequently occurs (South America and southern Africa). Mineral dust dominates other aerosol species in cities located in proximity to the major deserts (northern Africa and western Asia). Sea salt aerosols are prominent in coastal cities but are dominant aerosol species in very few of them. AOD trends are declining over cities in North America, Europe and Japan, as a result of effective air quality regulation. By contrast, the economic boom in China and India has led to increasing AOD trends over most cities in these two highly-populated countries. Increasing AOD trends over cities in the Middle East are caused by increasing desert dust.

AOD↗