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Results for “trajectory inference”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1987

High latitude currents in the 0600 to 0900 MLT sector - Observations from Viking and DMSP-F7

High-resolution magnetic field and charged-particle data acquired on March 25, 1986 by the Viking and DMSP-F7 satellites, as they traversed the dawn sector auroral zone on nearly antiparallel trajectories within 40 min of each oher, are analyzed. Magnetic field measurements by Viking at 0850 MLT and by DMSP at 0630 MLT indicate the presence of a large-scale earthward-directed region 1 Birkeland current and an upward-flowing region 2 current. Both satellites also observed a third Birkeland current adjacent to and poleward of the region 1 system with opposite flow. This poleward system is about 0.5 deg invariant latitude wide and has a current density comparable to the region 1 and 2 systems. The highest-latitude current is identified as region 0. Its charged-particle signatures were used to infer field line mapping to the equatorial plane.

Bythrow, P. F.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Extracting forces from noisy dynamics in dusty plasmas

Extracting environmental forces from noisy data is a common yet challenging task in complex physical systems. Machine learning (ML) represents a robust approach to this problem, yet is mostly tested on simulated data with known parameters. Here we use supervised ML to extract the electrostatic, dissipative, and stochastic forces acting on micron-sized charged particles levitated in an argon plasma (dusty plasma). By tracking the sub-pixel motion of particles in subsequent images, we successfully estimated these forces from their random motion. The experiments contained important sources of non-Gaussian noise, such as drift and pixel-locking, representing a data mismatch from methods used to analyze simulated data with purely Gaussian noise. Our model was trained on simulated particle trajectories that included all of these artifacts, and used more than 100 dynamical and statistical features, resulting in a prediction with 50\% better accuracy than conventional methods. Lastly, in systems with two interacting particles, the model provided non-contact measurements of the particle charge and Debye length in the plasma environment.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS2003

Energetic Particle Propagation in the Inner Heliosphere as Deduced from Low Frequency (less than 100 kHz) Observations of Type III Radio Bursts

Solar energetic particle (SEP) events are well-associated with solar flares. It is observed that the delay between the time of the flare and the first-arriving particles at a spacecraft increases with increasing difference between the flare longitude and the footpoint of the field line on which the spacecraft is located. This difference we call the "connection angle" and can be as large as approximately 120 deg. Recently it has been found that all SEP events are preceded by type III radio bursts. These bursts are plasma emission caused by the propagation of 2-50 keV flare electrons through the solar corona and into the solar wind. The drift of these type III radio bursts to lower and lower frequencies enables the propagation of the flare electrons to be traced from the Sun to about 1 AU. We have made an extensive analysis of the type III bursts associated with greater than 20 MeV proton events and find that, in most cases, the radio emission extends to the local plasma frequency when the energetic particles arrive within a few hours of the flare. We conclude that this emission at the lowest possible frequency is generated close to the spacecraft. We then use the time from when the burst started at the Sun to when it reached the local plasma frequency to infer the time it took the radio producing electrons to travel to the spacecraft. We find that these delay times are organized by the connection angle and correlate with the proton delay times. We also find that the differences between the radio delays at Wind and Ulysses are matched by differences in the relative arrival times of the energetic particles at the two spacecraft. The consistent timing between the relative arrival times of energetic electrons and protons and the start of the lowest frequency radio emissions suggests that the first arriving particles of both species are accelerated as part of the flare process and that they propagate to the spacecraft along trajectories similar to those of the lower energy flare electrons. To be detected by observers at locations distant from the nominal field lines originating in the flaring regions the particles must undergo lateral transport. The continuity of the radio bursts suggests that the cross-field transport may occur in the interplanetary medium.

Cane, H. V.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Development of an Optical Model for the MEDLI2 Radiometer

We present an optical model of the MEDLI2 radiometer, which was flown onboard the Mars 2020 vehicle during atmospheric entry on February 18, 2021. The proposed model takes into account the radiometer geometry and optical phenomena such as reflection, refraction, and absorption to estimate the signal loss inherent in the design of the radiometer. The model serves as a filter, which can be used to convert predicted total radiative heat fluxes on the radiometer window into predicted measured heat fluxes, enabling more accurate comparisons of the radiometer flight data with predicted radiometer measurements. Optical properties of the radiometer’s sapphire window are inferred from spectral transmissivity measurements. A modified Lorentz Oscillator Model is used to represent the dielectric function of the window and is fit to the transmission data. The resulting optical model of the radiometer is validated against experimental data used to measure the dependence of the radiometer output voltage on the incident angle of the light impinging on it. Comparison of predicted radiometer measurements with the MEDLI2 flight data show good agreement between the predicted and measured peak heat fluxes, though offset at different times. A linear increase in the signal loss due to radiometer optics alone is also demonstrated, suggesting that the changing shock angle over the course of the trajectory impacts the signal loss.

MEDLI2↗
DOE OSTI2020

Alaskan carbon-climate feedbacks will be weaker than inferred from short-term experiments

Climate warming is occurring fastest at high latitudes. Based on short-term field experiments, this warming is projected to stimulate soil organic matter decomposition, and promote a positive feedback to climate change. We show here that the tightly coupled, nonlinear nature of high-latitude ecosystems implies that short-term (<10 year) warming experiments produce emergent ecosystem carbon stock temperature sensitivities inconsistent with emergent multi-decadal responses. We first demonstrate that a well-tested mechanistic ecosystem model accurately represents observed carbon cycle and active layer depth responses to short-term summer warming in four diverse Alaskan sites. We then show that short-term warming manipulations do not capture the non-linear, long-term dynamics of vegetation, and thereby soil organic matter, that occur in response to thermal, hydrological, and nutrient transformations belowground. Our results demonstrate significant spatial heterogeneity in multi-decadal Arctic carbon cycle trajectories and argue for more mechanistic models to improve predictive capabilities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Predicting third-body collision efficiencies for water and other polyatomic baths

Low-pressure-limit microcanonical (collisional activation) and thermal rate constants are predicted using a combination of automated ab initio potential energy surface construction, classical trajectories, transition state theory, and a detailed energy- and angular-momentum-resolved collision kernel. Several systems are considered, including CH 4 (+M) and HO 2 (+M), with an emphasis on systems where experimental information is available for comparison. The a priori approach involves no adjustable parameters, and we show that the predicted thermal rate constants are in excellent agreement with experiments, with average deviations of less than 25%. Notably, the a priori approach is shown to perform equally well for atomic, diatomic, and polyatomic baths, including M = H 2 O, CO 2 , and “fuel” baths like M = CH 4 and NH 3 . Additionally, the utility of microcanonical rate constants for interpreting trends and inferring mechanistic details in the thermal kinetics is demonstrated.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS2016

Application of X-Ray Pulsar Navigation: A Characterization of the Earth Orbit Trade Space

The potential for pulsars as a navigation source has been studied since their discovery in 1967. X-ray pulsar navigation (XNAV) is a celestial navigation system that uses the consistent timing nature of x-ray photons from milli-second pulsars (MSP) to perform space navigation. By comparing the detected arrival of x-ray photons to a reference database of expected pulsar lightcurve timing models, one can infer a range and range rate measurement based on light time delay. Much of the challenge of XNAV comes from the faint signal, availability, and distant nature of pulsars. This is a study of potential pulsar XNAV measurements to measure extended Kalman filter (EKF) tracking performance with a wide trade space of bounded Earth orbits, using a simulation of existing x-ray detector space hardware. An example of an x-ray detector for XNAV is the NASA Station Explorer for X-ray Timing and Navigation (SEXTANT) mission, a technology demonstration of XNAV set to perform on the International Space Station (ISS) in late 2016early 2017. XNAV hardware implementation is driven by trajectory and environmental influences which add noise to the x-ray pulse signal. In a closed Earth orbit, the radiation environment can exponentially increase the signal noise from x-ray pulsar sources, decreasing the quality and frequency of measurements. The SEXTANT mission in particular improves on the signal to noise ratio by focusing an array of 56 x-ray silicon drift detectors at one pulsar target at a time. This reduces timing glitches and other timing noise contributions from ambient x-ray sources to within a 100 nanosecond resolution. This study also considers the SEXTANT scheduling challenges inherent in a single target observation. Finally, as the navigation sources are now relatively inertial targets, XNAV measurements are also subject to periods of occultation from various celestial bodies. This study focuses on the characterization of these drivers in closed Earth orbits and is not a tuning analysis of the EKF. The study shows that the closed Earth orbit for XNAV performance is reliant on the orbit semi-major axis and eccentricity as well as orbit inclination. These parameters are the primary drivers of pulsar measurement availability and significantly influence the natural spacecraft orbit dynamics. Sensitivity to initial orbit determination error growth due to the scarcity of XNAV measurements within an orbital period require appropriate timing of initial XNAV measurements. The orbit angles of argument of perigee and right ascension of the ascending node, alongside the other orbit parameters, complete the initial cadence of XNAV measurements. The performance of initial XNAV measurements then propagates throughout the experimental period. The study provides a basis to missions who wish to consider XNAV as a potential navigation source in a closed Earth orbit design. It provides a family of orbit trajectories as well as other modeling considerations needed to effectively evaluate if XNAV is an effective navigation source for a potential mission. As an EKF is sensitive to a linearized estimated state, this study has a direct benefit of providing effective XNAV measurements to maintain spacecraft tracking, independent of other navigation sources. In the particular use case of the SEXTANT mission, it also provides a novel scheduling algorithm which addresses the need to prioritize and manage pulsar observations for effective navigation.

PULSAR↗
NASA NTRS2016

Application of X-Ray Pulsar Navigation: A Characterization of the Earth Orbit Trade Space

The potential for pulsars as a navigation source has been studied since their discovery in 1967. X-ray pulsar navigation (XNAV) is a celestial navigation system that uses the consistent timing nature of x-ray photons from millisecond pulsars (MSP) to perform space navigation. By comparing the detected arrival of x-ray photons to a reference database of expected pulsar light-curve timing models, one can infer a range and range rate measurement based on light time delay. Much of the challenge of XNAV comes from the faint signal, availability, and distant nature of pulsars. This is a study of potential pulsar XNAV measurements to measure extended Kalman filter (EKF) tracking performance with a wide trade space of bounded Earth orbits, using a simulation of existing x-ray detector space hardware. An example of an x-ray detector for XNAV is the NASA Station Explorer for X-ray Timing and Navigation (SEXTANT) mission, a technology demonstration of XNAV set to perform on the International Space Station (ISS) in late 2016early 2017. XNAV hardware implementation is driven by trajectory and environmental influences which add noise to the x-ray pulse signal. In a closed Earth orbit, the radiation environment can exponentially increase the signal noise from x-ray pulsar sources, decreasing the quality and frequency of measurements. The SEXTANT mission in particular improves on the signal to noise ratio by focusing an array of 56 x-ray silicon drift detectors at one pulsar target at a time. This reduces timing glitches and other timing noise contributions from ambient x-ray sources to within a 100 nanosecond resolution. This study also considers the SEXTANT scheduling challenges inherent in a single target observation. Finally, as the navigation sources are now relatively inertial targets, XNAV measurements are also subject to periods of occultation from various celestial bodies. This study focuses on the characterization of these drivers in closed Earth orbits and is not a tuning analysis of the EKF. The study shows that the closed Earth orbit for XNAV performance is reliant on the orbit semi-major axis and eccentricity as well as orbit inclination. These parameters are the primary drivers of pulsar measurement availability and significantly influence the natural spacecraft orbit dynamics. Sensitivity to initial orbit determination error growth due to the scarcity of XNAV measurements within an orbital period require appropriate timing of initial XNAV measurements. The orbit angles of argument of perigee and right ascension of the ascending node, alongside the other orbit parameters, complete the initial cadence of XNAV measurements. The performance of initial XNAV measurements then propagates throughout the experimental period. The study provides a basis to missions who wish to consider XNAV as a potential navigation source in a closed Earth orbit design. It provides a family of orbit trajectories as well as other modeling considerations needed to effectively evaluate if XNAV is an effective navigation source for a potential mission. As an EKF is sensitive to a linearized estimated state, this study has a direct benefit of providing effective XNAV measurements to maintain spacecraft tracking, independent of other navigation sources. In the particular use case of the SEXTANT mission, it also provides a novel scheduling algorithm which addresses the need to prioritize and manage pulsar observations for effective navigation.

x-ray↗
DOE OSTI2023

Variational deep learning of equilibrium transition path ensembles

Here, we present a time-dependent variational method to learn the mechanisms of equilibrium reactive processes and efficiently evaluate their rates within a transition path ensemble. This approach builds off of the variational path sampling methodology by approximating the time-dependent commitment probability within a neural network ansatz. The reaction mechanisms inferred through this approach are elucidated by a novel decomposition of the rate in terms of the components of a stochastic path action conditioned on a transition. This decomposition affords an ability to resolve the typical contribution of each reactive mode and their couplings to the rare event. The associated rate evaluation is variational and systematically improvable through the development of a cumulant expansion. We demonstrate this method in both over- and under-damped stochastic equations of motion, in low-dimensional model systems, and in the isomerization of a solvated alanine dipeptide. In all examples, we find that we can obtain quantitatively accurate estimates of the rates of the reactive events with minimal trajectory statistics and gain unique insights into transitions through the analysis of their commitment probability.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS1999

Nitrogen Oxides and Ozones from B-747 Measurements (NOXAR) during POLINAT 2 and SONEX: Overview and Case-Studies on Continental and Marine Convection

In the framework of the project POLINAT 2 (Pollution in the North Atlantic Flight Corridor) we measured NO(x) (NO and NO2) and ozone on 98 flights through the North Atlantic Flight Corridor (NAFC) with a fully automated system permanently installed aboard an in-service Swissair B-747 airliner in the period of August to November 1997. The averaged NO, concentrations both in the NAFC and at the U.S. east coast were similar to that measured in autumn 1995 with the same system. The patchy occurrence of NO(x), enhancements up to 3000 pptv over several hundred kilometers (plumes), predominately found over the U.S. east coast lead to a log-normal NO(x) probability density function. In three case-studies we examine the origins of such plumes by combining back-trajectories with brightness temperature enhanced (IR) satellite imagery, with lightning observations from the U.S. National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) or with the Optical Transient Detector (OTD) satellite. For frontal activity above the continental U.S., we demonstrate that the location of NO(x) plumes can be well explained with maps of convective influence. For another case we show that the number of lightning flashes in a cluster of marine thunderstorms is proportional to the NO(x) concentrations observed several hundred kilometers downwind of the anvil outflows and suggest that lightning was the dominant source. From the fact that in autumn the NO, maximum was found several hundred kilometers off the U.S. east coast, it can be inferred that thunderstorms triggered over the warm Gulf Stream current are an important source for the regional upper tropospheric NO(x) budget in autumn.

Jeker, Dominique↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessment of Mars 2020 Forebody Heating Predictions with Coupled Material Response

The objective of this work was to assess the impact of flow field - material response cou-pling on reproducing temperatures within the Mars 2020 forebody thermal protection system.Both equilibrium and nonequilibrium coupled material response approaches were considered.Turbulent transition estimates were included in the flow field modeling based on transitiontimes inferred from flight measurements. A coupled equilibrium ablation model was foundto overpredict the in-depth temperatures near the surface by over 100 K in the stagnationregion and by about 200 K near the leeside shoulder, which was subject to turbulent heatingaugmentation. For nonequilibrium ablation, two finite rate surface chemistry models wereused to model the chemical process on the vehicle surface. The first was a model consistingof N2catalysis and CO2recombination model, and the second was a model consisting of onlyN2and O2catalysis. Near the stagnation point, the N2and CO2model was found to be withinabout 10 K from the peak in-depth temperature near the surface; however, overpredictionof the in-depth temperatures was observed early in the trajectory, similar to the equilibriumablation model. The N2and O2catalysis model was found to significantly underpredict nearsurface in-depth temperatures.

Thomas K West↗
DOE OSTI2025

Geometric GNNs for charged particle tracking at GlueX

Nuclear physics experiments are aimed at uncovering the fundamental building blocks of matter. The experiments involve high-energy collisions that produce complex events with many particle trajectories. Tracking charged particles resulting from collisions in the presence of a strong magnetic field is critical to enable the reconstruction of particle trajectories and precise determination of interactions. It is traditionally achieved through combinatorial approaches that scale worse than linearly as the number of hits grows. Since particle hit data naturally form a point cloud and can be structured as graphs, graph neural networks (GNNs) emerge as an intuitive and effective choice for this task. In this study, we evaluate the GNN model for track finding on the data from the GlueX experiment at Jefferson Lab. We use simulation data to train the model and test on both simulation and real GlueX measurements. We demonstrate that GNN-based track finding outperforms the currently used traditional method at GlueX in terms of segment-based efficiency at a fixed purity while providing faster inferences. We show that the GNN model can achieve significant speedup by processing multiple events in batches, which exploits the parallel computation capability of graphical processing units (GPUs). Finally, we compare the GNN implementation on GPU and field-programmable gate array and describe the trade-off.

batched GNN pipeline↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Stochastic Reconstruction of Thermal Protection Material Properties from Arc-Jet Experiments

Material response models are used to assess reliability using variances in the bond-line temperature predictions based on uncertainties in trajectory, aerothermal environment, and material properties. A key deficiency in the current approach is that input uncertainties are too often subjective, empirical, or ad-hoc, and are not rigorously linked to the arc-jet test data used to develop the TPS material model. While materials such as PICA are well understood, future missions may require more novel materials such as HEEET where unknown uncertainties have real consequences on the ability to assess reliability. A quantifiable estimate of reliability requires an iterative methodology where the parameters driving the variance in bond-line temperature (for example) are systematically identified. A test campaign to collect data or develop new models can then be identified to reduce those input uncertainties. A Bayesian inference loop defines these connections mathematically, i.e., prior knowledge about uncertainty is updated based on observation. While these concepts are well known (and often applied intuitively in a non-rigorous approach), only recent advances in reduced-order modelling have made them computationally viable methods for engineering. By replacing deterministic inverse methods with stochastic approaches, the hope is new materials proposed for future missions can more rapidly be developed with a greater understanding of the TPS material reliability. Two additional steps for the analysis of arc jet test data are discussed. The first is ability to construct a reduced-order model using material response simulations (Icarus/US3D) of the arc-jet test articles, and the second is the inclusion of this surrogate model in the Bayesian inversion process. Both capabilities will be demonstrated using prior PICA arc-jet test data. The quality of a surrogate model will be investigated and the variances on the calibrated material properties will be compared to our current understanding of the PICA material model.

Material response↗
NASA NTRS1997

Measurement of Vortex Strength and Core Diameter in the Wake of a Hovering Rotor

Detailed hot wire measurements have been acquired in the tip vortex of a three-bladed model tilt rotor in hover. Testing was conducted at a rotor tip speed of 752 ft/sec, a Reynolds number (based on blade tip chord) of 1.77 x 10(exp 6), for thrust coefficients up to 0.0160. A figure shows the hot wire mounted above the inverted rotor at the Outside Aerodynamic Rotor Facility (OARF) at NASA Ames Research Center. Strobed shadowgraph flow visualization was used to define the vortex trajectory as an aid in hot wire positioning. Considerable variations in tip vortex structure with time were observed, even from the same blade, under essentially uniform test conditions. The only velocity signatures analyzed were those corresponding to passage of the probe directly through the center of the vortex. These time histories were ensemble averaged after compensating for jitter in the vortex arrival time at the probe, thereby retaining the core structure with minimal smearing. An example of a mean velocity signature, after ensemble averaging, is shown. The mean velocity signature was analyzed under the assumption of constant (unknown) translation speed of the vortex filament past the fixed probe. The translation speed of the vortex is deduced and the vortex strength and core diameter inferred. The results were highly unexpected. The indicated vortex strength is seen to decrease rapidly after first blade passage. In addition, the core radius is seen to decrease with increasing wake age, not increase as might be expected from simple diffusion.

Wadcock, Alan J.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Dynamic Equivalence of Large-Scale Power Systems Based on Boundary Measurements

Parallel computing helped speed up many tasks that can be done independently. The advance in gaming industry did not produce a technology that helps the power industry to reduce the computation time for dynamic simulation in individual cases. To perform faster than real-time simulation for the purpose of predicting power system dynamic trajectory, power industry continues to struggle to reduce the system size and simulation time of large-scale power systems while keeping its dynamic behavior under various disturbances. There is also an acute need for real-time dynamic model reduction as more renewables enter the generation mix with dramatic changes in the generation outputs. All existing model reduction solutions are based on having access to a detailed dynamic model of the system. The system changes by the minutes, dynamic models are only updated annually. To solve this problem, wide-area measurements obtained by the phasor measurement unit (PMU) at the boundaries between the reduced system and the study system is used to represent the external area. An artificial neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) is established to perform the mapping of the measurement to the external equivalent model. Here the external area is regarded as a black-box. Model reduction studies are conducted on the Northeast Power Coordinating Council (NPCC) under various types of contingencies, by using a co-simulation approach between PSS/E and MATLAB. The results look very promising and will be discussed in this paper.

Tong, Ning↗
NASA NTRS1980

Rocket observations at the northern edge of the eastward electrojet

The paper discusses a Nike-Tomahawk rocket launched north over quiet, late evening auroral arcs in March 1975. A northward magnetic disturbance was observed on the ground under the rocket trajectory; south of the arcs the northward electric field was 60 mV/m, indicating strong westward plasma flow. An eastward electrojet current layer was penetrated in the upward flight, and precipitating electrons were observed over each arc. Using the observed electron flux and a model of the ionosphere, the Hall and Pedersen conductivities were calculated which were used to compute the eastward and northward components of the horizontal ionospheric currents. The joule power decreased abruptly in the auroral arcs, as the precipitating electron power increased; the total dissipated power was the same inside the arcs, between them and southward. North of the aurora the electric field and dissipated power remained low; field-aligned currents carried by the observed electrons were about a factor of 3 lower than those inferred from the magnetic field measurements.

Cahill, L. J., Jr.↗
DOE OSTI2024

In situ estimation of ice crystal properties at the South Pole using LED calibration data from the IceCube Neutrino Observatory

The IceCube Neutrino Observatory instruments about 1 km 3 of deep, glacial ice at the geographic South Pole. It uses 5160 photomultipliers to detect Cherenkov light emitted by charged relativistic particles. An unexpected light propagation effect observed by the experiment is an anisotropic attenuation, which is aligned with the local flow direction of the ice. We examine birefringent light propagation through the polycrystalline ice microstructure as a possible explanation for this effect. The predictions of a first-principles model developed for this purpose, in particular curved light trajectories resulting from asymmetric diffusion, provide a qualitatively good match to the main features of the data. This in turn allows us to deduce ice crystal properties. Since the wavelength of the detected light is short compared to the crystal size, these crystal properties include not only the crystal orientation fabric, but also the average crystal size and shape, as a function of depth. By adding small empirical corrections to this first-principles model, a quantitatively accurate description of the optical properties of the IceCube glacial ice is obtained. In this paper, we present the experimental signature of ice optical anisotropy observed in IceCube light-emitting diode (LED) calibration data, the theory and parameterization of the birefringence effect, the fitting procedures of these parameterizations to experimental data, and the inferred crystal properties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Alaskan carbon-climate feedbacks will be weaker than inferred from short-term manipulations: Alaskan Benchmark Data and Model runs

This submission aimed to assess differences in short-term step warming manipulations and long-term chronic response to climate change in Alaskan ecosystems. Briefly, climate warming is occurring fastest at high latitudes. Based on short-term field experiments, this warming is projected to stimulate soil organic matter decomposition, and promote a positive feedback to climate change. We show here that the tightly coupled, nonlinear nature of high-latitude ecosystems implies that short-term (< 10 year) warming experiments produce emergent ecosystem carbon stock temperature sensitivities inconsistent with emergent multi-decadal responses. We first demonstrate that a well-tested mechanistic ecosystem model accurately represents observed carbon cycle and active layer depth responses to short-term summer warming in four diverse Alaskan sites. We then show that short-term warming manipulations do not capture the non-linear, long-term dynamics of vegetation, and thereby soil organic matter, that occur in response to thermal, hydrological, and nutrient transformations belowground. Our results demonstrate significant spatial heterogeneity in multi-decadal Arctic carbon cycle trajectories and argue for more mechanistic models to improve predictive capabilities.The model used in the current study is available publicly (https://github.com/jinyun1tang/ECOSYS), and the current submission contains the python/ matlab codes for analyzing output from the model (includng a readme file to explain the codes). The benchmark data, also enclosed, was collected from a range of published and publicly available sources (extracted using GRABIT: https://www.mathworks.com/matlabcentral/fileexchange/7173-grabit). These sources describe warming induced changes in tundra/ boreal ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗