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NASA NTRS2015

On Possible Arc Inception on Low Voltage Solar Array

Recent analysis of spacecraft failures during the period of 1990-2013 demonstrated clearly that electrostatic discharges caused more than 8 of all registered failures and anomalies, and comprised the most costly losses (25) for operating companies and agencies. The electrostatic discharges on spacecraft surfaces are the results of differential charging above some critical (threshold) voltages. The mechanisms of differential charging are well known, and various methods have been developed to prevent a generation of significant electric fields in areas of triple junctions. For example, low bus voltages in Low Earth Orbit plasma environment and slightly conducting layer over coverglass (ITO) in Geosynchronous Orbit surroundings are believed to be quite reliable measures to prevent discharges on respective surfaces. In most cases, the vulnerable elements of spacecraft (solar arrays, diode boards, etc.) go through comprehensive ground tests in vacuum chambers. However, tests articles contain the miniscule fragments of spacecraft components such as 10-30 solar cells of many thousands deployed on spacecraft in orbit. This is one reason why manufacturing defects may not be revealed in ground tests but expose themselves in arcing on array surface in space. The other reason for ineffectiveness of discharge preventive measures is aging of all materials in harsh orbital environments. The expected life time of modern spacecraft varies within the range of five-fifteen years, and thermal cycling, radiation damages, and mechanical stresses can result in surface erosion on conductive layers and microscopic cracks in coverglass sheets and adhesive films. These possible damages may cause significant increases in local electric field strengths and subsequent discharges. The primary discharges may or may not be detrimental to spacecraft operation, but they can produce the necessary conditions for sustained arcs initiation. Multiple measures were developed to prevent sustained discharges between adjacent strings, and many ground tests were performed to determine threshold parameters (voltage and current) for sustained arcs. And again, manufacturing defects and aging in space environments may result in considerable decrease of critical threshold parameters. This paper is devoted to the analysis of possible reasons behind arcing on spacecraft with low bus voltages.

plasma interaction↗
NASA NTRS2015

On Possible Arc Inception on Low Voltage Solar Array

Recent analysis of spacecraft failures during the period of 1990-2013 demonstrated clearly that electrostatic discharges caused more than 8 percent of all registered failures and anomalies, and comprised the most costly losses (25 percent) for operating companies and agencies. The electrostatic discharges on spacecraft surfaces are the results of differential charging above some critical (threshold) voltages. The mechanisms of differential charging are well known, and various methods have been developed to prevent a generation of significant electric fields in areas of triple junctions. For example, low bus voltages in Low Earth Orbit plasma environment and slightly conducting layer over cover-glass (ITO) in Geosynchronous Orbit surroundings are believed to be quite reliable measures to prevent discharges on respective surfaces. In most cases, the vulnerable elements of spacecraft (solar arrays, diode boards, etc.) go through comprehensive ground tests in vacuum chambers. However, tests articles contain the miniscule fragments of spacecraft components such as 10-30 solar cells of many thousands deployed on spacecraft in orbit. This is one reason why manufacturing defects may not be revealed in ground tests but expose themselves in arcing on array surface in space. The other reason for ineffectiveness of discharge preventive measures is aging of all materials in harsh orbital environments. The expected life time of modern spacecraft varies within the range of five-fifteen years, and thermal cycling, radiation damages, and mechanical stresses can result in surface erosion on conductive layers and microscopic cracks in cover-glass sheets and adhesive films. These possible damages may cause significant increases in local electric field strengths and subsequent discharges. The primary discharges may or may not be detrimental to spacecraft operation, but they can produce the necessary conditions for sustained arcs initiation. Multiple measures were developed to prevent sustained discharges between adjacent strings, and many ground tests were performed to determine threshold parameters (voltage and current) for sustained arcs. And again, manufacturing defects and aging in space environments may result in considerable decrease of critical threshold parameters. This paper is devoted to the analysis of possible reasons behind arcing on spacecraft with low bus voltages.

low voltage solar array↗
NASA NTRS2015

New York City Panel on Climate Change 2015 Report Introduction

The climate of the New York City metropolitan region is changing annual temperatures are hotter, heavy downpours are increasingly frequent, and the sea is rising. These trends, which are also occurring in many parts of the world, are projected to continue and even worsen in the coming decades because of higher concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere caused by burning of fossil fuels and clearing of forests for agriculture. These changing climate hazards increase the risks for the people, economy, and infrastructure of New York City. As was demonstrated by Hurricane Sandy, coastal and low-lying areas, the elderly and very young, and lower-income neighborhoods are highly vulnerable. In response to these climate challenges, New York City is developing a broad range of climate resiliency policies and programs, as well as the knowledge base to support them. The knowledge base includes up-to-date climate, sea level rise, and coastal flooding projections; a Climate Resiliency Indicators and Monitoring System; and resiliency studies. A special attribute of the New York City response to these challenges is the recognition that both the knowledge base and the programs and policies it supports need to evolve through time as climate risks unfold in the coming decades. In early September 2012, just weeks before Hurricane Sandy hit, the New York City Council passed Local Law 42 that established the New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC) as an ongoing body serving the City of New York. The NPCC is required to meet at least twice each calendar year to review recent scientific data on climate change and its potential impacts, and to make recommendations on climate projections for the coming decades to the end of the century. These projections are due within one year of the publication of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Reports (http:www.ipcc.ch), or at least every three years. The NPCC also advises the Mayor's Office of Sustainability and the Mayor's Office of Recovery and Resiliency (ORR) on the development of a community- or borough-level communications strategy intended to ensure that the public is informed about the findings of the panel, including the creation of a summary of the climate change projections for dissemination to city residents.

hurricanes↗
NASA NTRS2009

Severe Space Weather Events--Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts: A Workshop Report - Extended Summary

The effects of space weather on modern technological systems are well documented in both the technical literature and popular accounts. Most often cited perhaps is the collapse within 90 seconds of northeastern Canada's Hydro-Quebec power grid during the great geomagnetic storm of March 1989, which left millions of people without electricity for up to 9 hours. This event exemplifies the dramatic impact that severe space weather can have on a technology upon which modern society critically depends. Nearly two decades have passed since the March 1989 event. During that time, awareness of the risks of severe space weather has increased among the affected industries, mitigation strategies have been developed, new sources of data have become available, new models of the space environment have been created, and a national space weather infrastructure has evolved to provide data, alerts, and forecasts to an increasing number of users. Now, 20 years later and approaching a new interval of increased solar activity, how well equipped are we to manage the effects of space weather? Have recent technological developments made our critical technologies more or less vulnerable? How well do we understand the broader societal and economic impacts of severe space weather events? Are our institutions prepared to cope with the effects of a 'space weather Katrina,' a rare, but according to the historical record, not inconceivable eventuality? On May 22 and 23, 2008, a one-and-a-half-day workshop held in Washington, D.C., under the auspices of the National Research Council's (NRC's) Space Studies Board brought together representatives of industry, the federal government, and the social science community to explore these and related questions. The key themes, ideas, and insights that emerged during the presentations and discussions are summarized in 'Severe Space Weather Events--Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts: A Workshop Report' (The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C., 2008), which was prepared by the Committee on the Societal and Economic Impacts of Severe Space Weather Events: A Workshop. The present document is an expanded summary of that report.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2021

Perspectives on flood forecast-based early action and opportunities for Earth observations

This paper seeks to identify opportunities to integrate Earth observations (EO) into flood forecast-based early action and propose future directions for research and collaboration between EO and humanitarian communities. Forecast-based early action (FbA) is an approach to shift disaster response toward anticipation to mitigate impacts to at-risk communities; however, timely and accurate information is needed in the development of data-based triggers and thresholds for action. Therefore, this paper considers the readiness of a wide range of EO for flood monitoring and forecasting in the design, operations, and evaluation phases of FbA. The most significant opportunities for EO to inform FbA efforts lie in the design and evaluation phases, as EO can aid in the development of impact-based triggers. The EO products most readily applicable include precipitation, streamflow estimates, and exposure mapping, and those requiring the greatest amount of further research include vulnerability and impact assessments. This paper identifies collaboration opportunities for the EO and humanitarian communities to create tailored products, such as overlays combining flood extents with exposure maps. Such collaboration opportunities can be fostered by open data sharing, data verification efforts, and incentives for supporting boundary organizations capable of enabling the use of EO for FbA.

disasters↗
NASA NTRS2000

Simulating the Composite Propellant Manufacturing Process

There is a strategic interest in understanding how the propellant manufacturing process contributes to military capabilities outside the United States. The paper will discuss how system dynamics (SD) has been applied to rapidly assess the capabilities and vulnerabilities of a specific composite propellant production complex. These facilities produce a commonly used solid propellant with military applications. The authors will explain how an SD model can be configured to match a specific production facility followed by a series of scenarios designed to analyze operational vulnerabilities. By using the simulation model to rapidly analyze operational risks, the analyst gains a better understanding of production complexities. There are several benefits of developing SD models to simulate chemical production. SD is an effective tool for characterizing complex problems, especially the production process where the cascading effect of outages quickly taxes common understanding. By programming expert knowledge into an SD application, these tools are transformed into a knowledge management resource that facilitates rapid learning without requiring years of experience in production operations. It also permits the analyst to rapidly respond to crisis situations and other time-sensitive missions. Most importantly, the quantitative understanding gained from applying the SD model lends itself to strategic analysis and planning.

Williamson, Suzanne↗
NASA NTRS2006

Monitoring Temperatures of Tires Using Luminescent Materials

A method of noncontact, optical monitoring of the surface temperature of a tire has been devised to enable the use of local temperature rise as an indication of potential or impending failures. The method involves the use of temperature-sensitive paint (or filler): Temperature-sensitive luminescent dye molecules or other luminescent particles are incorporated into a thin, flexible material coating the tire surface of interest. (Alternatively, in principle, the luminescent material could be incorporated directly into the tire rubber, though this approach has not yet been tested.) The coated surface is illuminated with shorter-wavelength light to excite longer-wavelength luminescence, which is observed by use of a charge-coupled-device camera or a photodetector (see Figure 1). If temporally constant illumination is used, then the temperature can be deduced from the known temperature dependence of the intensity response of the luminescence. If pulsed illumination is used, then the temperature can be deduced from the known temperature dependence of the time or frequency response of the luminescence. If sinusoidally varying illumination is used, then the temperature can be deduced from the known temperature dependence of the phase response of the luminescence. Unlike a prior method of monitoring the temperature at a fixed spot on a tire by use of a thermocouple, this method is not restricted to one spot and can, therefore, yield information on the spatial distribution of temperature: in particular, it enables the discovery of newly forming hot spots where damage may be starting. Also unlike in the thermocouple method, the measurements in this method are not vulnerable to breakage of wires in repeated flexing of the tire. Moreover, unlike in another method in which infrared radiation is monitored as an indication of surface temperature, the luminescence measurements in this method are not significantly affected by changes in infrared emissivity. This method has been demonstrated in application to the outside surface of a tire (see Figure 2), using both constant and pulsed light sources for illumination and cooled, slow-scan, gated CCD cameras for detection. For observing the temperature of the inside surface of a tire (this has not yet been done), it would probably be necessary to use fiber optics and/or windows for coupling excitation light into, and coupling luminescence out of, the interior volume.

Bencic, Timothy J↗
NASA NTRS2018

Two-thirds of Global Cropland Area Impacted by Climate Oscillations

The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) peaked strongly during the boreal winter 2015-2016, leading to food insecurity in many parts of Africa, Asia and Latin America. Besides ENSO, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are known to impact crop yields worldwide. Here we assess for the first time in a unified framework the relationship between ENSO, IOD and NAO and simulated crop productivity at the sub-country scale. Our findings reveal that during 1961-2010, crop productivity is significantly influenced by at least one large-scale climate oscillation in two-thirds of global cropland area. Besides observing new possible links, especially for NAO in Africa and the Middle East, our analyses confirm several known relationships between crop productivity and these oscillations. Our results improve the understanding of climatological crop productivity drivers, which is essential for enhancing food security in many of the most vulnerable places on the planet.

IOD↗
NASA NTRS2022

Mars 2020 Entry, Descent, and Landing System Software Implementation

On February 18th, 2021, the Mars 2020 project's Perseverance Rover successfully touched down on the Martian surface after nearly eight years of development. The Mars 2020 Entry, Descent, and Landing (EDL) System largely leveraged heritage from the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) EDL System while employing targeted technological advancements. The landing process is autonomously directed by a software behavior implemented in the rover's primary flight computer called the EDL Timeline that assumes control of the vehicle six days before atmospheric entry. This paper first walks through the basics of the EDL Timeline mechanics and how the behavior is designed to account for internal system variations and environmental unknowns. It then summarizes the interactions between the EDL timeline and other high-level system behaviors like spacecraft mode transitions and system fault protection, focusing on the complications that arise when passing spacecraft control between executive functions. Although the MSL-inherited EDL System is reliable and capable, targeted updates and a thorough verification and validation program were required for Mars 2020. This paper discusses changes made to close vulnerabilities discovered during both MSL and Mars 2020 development cycles, landing system capability enhancements that were enabling for Mars 2020's mission, and how these updates were integrated with the heritage system. It then describes how both analysis and testing campaigns were utilized to verify and validate all aspects of EDL and system behaviors that run during the six days before landing, as well as the operational workarounds that were needed to address problems found during the development and commissioning process. Finally, this paper imparts lessons learned from Mars 2020 EDL development, implementation, and operations, emphasizing how systems designed to conduct time-critical mission events with low margin of error can be improved in the future.

Stehura, Aaron↗
NASA NTRS2022

Mars 2020 Entry, Descent, and Landing Software Implementation

On February 18th, 2021, the Mars 2020 project's Perseverance Rover successfully touched down on the Martian surface after nearly eight years of development. The Mars 2020 Entry, Descent, and Landing (EDL) System largely leveraged heritage from the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) EDL System while employing targeted technological advancements. The landing process is autonomously directed by a software behavior implemented in the rover's primary flight computer called the EDL Timeline that assumes control of the vehicle six days before atmospheric entry. In addition to performing the critical function of landing the rover on the Martian surface, the EDL timeline behavior must co-exist in a non-partitioned software and system environment with other high-level functions that accomplish the goals for the rest of the mission. Due to the criticality of EDL, the potential for loss of mission, and a need for complete system autonomy, the standard for how the EDL Timeline interacts with other functions in the system is highly constrained. This paper first walks through the basics of the EDL Timeline mechanics and how the behavior is designed to account for internal system variations and environmental unknowns. It then summarizes the interactions between the EDL timeline and other high-level system behaviors like spacecraft mode transitions and system fault protection, focusing on the complications that arise when passing spacecraft control between executive functions. Although the MSL-inherited EDL System is reliable and capable, targeted updates and a thorough verification and validation program were required for Mars 2020. This paper discusses changes made to close vulnerabilities discovered during both MSL and Mars 2020 development cycles, landing system capability enhancements that were enabling for Mars 2020's mission, and how these updates were integrated with the heritage system. It then describes how both analysis and testing campaigns were utilized to verify and validate all aspects of EDL and system behaviors that run during the six days before landing, as well as the operational workarounds that were needed to address problems found during the development and commissioning process. Finally, this paper imparts lessons learned from Mars 2020 EDL development, implementation, and operations, emphasizing how systems designed to conduct time-critical mission events with low margin of error can be improved in the future.

Stehura, Aaron↗
NASA NTRS2006

Autonomic Management of Space Missions

With NASA s renewed commitment to outer space exploration, greater emphasis is being placed on both human and robotic exploration. Even when humans are involved in the exploration, human tending of assets becomes cost-prohibitive or in many cases is simply not feasible. In addition, certain exploration missions will require spacecraft that will be capable of venturing where humans cannot be sent. Early space missions were operated manually from ground control centers with little or no automated operations. In the mid-l980s, the high costs of satellite operations prompted NASA, and others, to begin automating as many functions as possible. In our context, a system is autonomous if it can achieve its goals without human intervention. A number of more-or-less automated ground systems exist today, but work continues with the goal being to reduce operations costs to even lower levels. Cost reductions can be achieved in a number of areas. Ground control and spacecraft operations are two such areas where greater autonomy can reduce costs. As a consequence, autonomy is increasingly seen as a critical approach for robotic missions and for some aspects of manned missions. Although autonomy will be critical for the success of future missions (and indeed will enable certain kinds of science data gathering approaches), missions imbued with autonomy must also exhibit autonomic properties. Exploitation of autonomy alone, without emphasis on autonomic properties, will leave spacecraft vulnerable to the dangerous environments in which they must operate. Without autonomic properties, a spacecraft may be unable to recognize negative environmental effects on its components and subsystems, or may be unable to take any action to ameliorate the effects. The spacecraft, though operating autonomously, may then sustain a degradation of performance of components or subsystems, and consequently may have a reduced potential for achieving mission objectives. In extreme cases, lack of autonomic properties could leave the spacecraft unable to recover from faults. Ensuring that exploration spacecraft have autonomic properties will increase the survivability and therefore the likelihood of success of these missions. In fact, over time, as mission requirements increased demands on spacecraft capabilities and longevity, designers have gradually built more autonomicity into spacecraft. For example, a spacecraft in low-earth orbit may experience an out-of-bounds perturbation of its attitude (orientation) due to increased drag caused by increased atmospheric density at its altitude as a result of a sufficiently large solar flare. If the spacecraft was designed to recognize the excessive attitude perturbation, it could decide to protect itself by going into a safe-hold mode where its internal configuration and operation are altered to conserve power and its coarse attitude is adjusted to point its solar panels toward the Sun to maximize power generation. This is an example of a simple type of autonomic behavior that has actually occurred. Future mission concepts will be increasingly dependent on space system survivability enabled by more advanced types of autonomic behaviors

Hinchey, Michael G.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Asthma and Particulate Matter Pollution: Insights from Health Survey and Air Quality Monitoring in the Buzzard Point, Washington, DC Neighborhood

Air pollution, climate change, and other environmental factors contribute to increasing asthma in manycities, including Washington, DC. This work provides a case study of how community input, neighborhood-level health surveys, and air quality monitoring can inform the understanding of asthma and air pollution.A partnership between residents, concerned citizens, scientists, and educators has been working for envi-ronmental health in a DC neighborhood located on a major roadway, next to concrete batch plants andclose to several construction projects. A 2016 Community Health and Safety Study by the DC Departmentof Health, Office of Health Equity, recognized this particular neighborhood as more vulnerable to healthimpacts from recent construction in the area, compared with the surrounding areas, due to lower averageincome and higher percentage of seniors and children. This work presents neighborhood health surveysand air quality monitoring data at a more granular, local level than available from DC governmentagencies. The health surveys documented residents’ experiences around air pollution, asthma,and other health concerns. A key finding was evidence that asthma might be undercounted in thisneighborhood; among residents who did not indicate a diagnosis of asthma, many discussed havingsymptoms that could reflect asthma. Air quality monitoring (particulate matter [PM]) did not indicate thatfederal air quality standards have been violated. Real-time PM data, however,illustrated how current PMstandards, such as 1- and 24-hour averages, may fail to capture shorter duration high PM events that areconsistent with resident concerns.

Shizuka Hsieh↗
NASA NTRS2009

A Climate-Data Record of the "Clear-Sky" Surface Temperature of the Greenland Ice Sheet

We are developing a climate-data record (CDR of daily "clear-sky" ice-surface temperature (IST) of the Greenland Ice Sheet, from 1982 to the present using Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) (1982 - present) and Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data (2000 - present) at a resolution of approximately 5 km. The CDR will be continued in the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System Visible/Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite era. Two algorithms remain under consideration. One algorithm under consideration is based on the split-window technique used in the Polar Pathfinder dataset (Fowler et al., 2000 & 21007). Another algorithm under consideration, developed by Comiso (2006), uses a single channel of AVHRR data (channel 4) in conjunction with meteorological-station data to account for atmospheric effects and drift between AVHRR instruments. Known issues being addressed in the production of the CDR are: tune-series bias caused by cloud cover (surface temperatures can be different under clouds vs. clear areas) and cross-calibration in the overlap period between AVHRR instruments, and between AVHRR and MODIS instruments. Because of uncertainties, mainly due to clouds (Stroeve & Steffen, 1998; Wang and Key, 2005; Hall et al., 2008 and Koenig and Hall, submitted), time-series of satellite 1S'1" do not necessarily correspond to actual surface temperatures. The CDR will be validated by comparing results with automatic-,",eather station (AWS) data and with satellite-derived surface-temperature products. Regional "clear-sky" surface temperature increases in the Arctic, measured from AVHRR infrared data, range from 0.57+/-0.02 deg C (Wang and Key, 2005) to 0.72+/-0.10 deg C (Comiso, 2006) per decade since the early 1980s. Arctic warming has important implications for ice-sheet mass balance because much of the periphery of the Greenland Ice Sheet is already near 0 deg C during the melt season, and is thus vulnerable to rapid melting if temperatures continue to increase. References

Hall, D. K.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Active Sensing of CO2 Emissions over Nights, Days, and Seasons (ASCENDS): Final Report of the ASCENDS Ad Hoc Science Definition Team

Improved remote sensing observations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) are critically needed to quantify, monitor, and understand the Earth's carbon cycle and its evolution in a changing climate. The processes governing ocean and terrestrial carbon uptake remain poorly understood,especially in dynamic regions with large carbon stocks and strong vulnerability to climate change,for example, the tropical land biosphere, the northern hemisphere high latitudes, and the Southern Ocean. Because the passive spectrometers used by GOSAT (Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite) and OCO-2 (Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2) require sunlit and cloud-free conditions,current observations over these regions remain infrequent and are subject to biases. These short comings limit our ability to understand and predict the processes controlling the carbon cycle on regional to global scales.In contrast, active CO2 remote-sensing techniques allow accurate measurements to be taken day and night, over ocean and land surfaces, in the presence of thin or scattered clouds, and at all times of year. Because of these benefits, the National Research Council recommended the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Active Sensing of CO2 Emissions over Nights,Days, and Seasons (ASCENDS) mission in the 2007 report Earth Science and Applications from Space: National Imperatives for the Next Decade and Beyond. The ability of ASCENDS to collect low-bias observations in these key regions is expected to address important gaps in our knowledge of the contemporary carbon cycle.The ASCENDS ad hoc Science Definition Team (SDT), comprised of carbon cycle modeling and active remote sensing instrument teams throughout the United States (US), worked to develop the mission's requirements and advance its readiness from 2008 through 2018. Numerous scientific investigations were carried out to identify the benefit and feasibility of active CO2 remote sensing measurements for improving our understanding of CO2 sources and sinks. This report summarizes their findings and recommendations based on mission modeling studies, analysis of ancillary meteorological data products, development and demonstration of candidate technologies, anddesign studies of the ASCENDS mission concept.

Kawa, S. Randolph↗
NASA NTRS2014

The Parallel System for Integrating Impact Models and Sectors (pSIMS)

We present a framework for massively parallel climate impact simulations: the parallel System for Integrating Impact Models and Sectors (pSIMS). This framework comprises a) tools for ingesting and converting large amounts of data to a versatile datatype based on a common geospatial grid; b) tools for translating this datatype into custom formats for site-based models; c) a scalable parallel framework for performing large ensemble simulations, using any one of a number of different impacts models, on clusters, supercomputers, distributed grids, or clouds; d) tools and data standards for reformatting outputs to common datatypes for analysis and visualization; and e) methodologies for aggregating these datatypes to arbitrary spatial scales such as administrative and environmental demarcations. By automating many time-consuming and error-prone aspects of large-scale climate impacts studies, pSIMS accelerates computational research, encourages model intercomparison, and enhances reproducibility of simulation results. We present the pSIMS design and use example assessments to demonstrate its multi-model, multi-scale, and multi-sector versatility.

crop modeling↗
NASA NTRS2010

Development of a Climate-Data Record (CDR) of the Surface Temperature of the Greenland Ice Sheet

Regional "clear sky" surface temperature increases since the early 1980s in the Arctic, measured using Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) infrared data, range from 0.57+/-0.02 deg C to 72+/-0.10 deg C per decade. Arctic warming has important implications for ice-sheet mass balance because much of the periphery of the Greenland Ice Sheet is already near 0 deg C during the melt season, and is thus vulnerable to rapid melting if temperatures continue to increase. An increase in melting of the ice sheet would accelerate sea-level rise, an issue affecting potentially billions of people worldwide. To quantify the ice-surface temperature (IST) of the Greenland Ice Sheet, and to provide an IST dataset of Greenland for modelers that provides uncertainties, we are developing a climate-data record (CDR) of daily "clear-sky" IST of the Greenland Ice Sheet, from 1982 to the present using AVHRR (1982 - present) and Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data (2000 - present) at a resolution of approximately 5 km. Known issues being addressed in the production of the CDR are: time-series bias caused by cloud cover (surface temperatures can be different under clouds vs. clear areas) and cross-calibration in the overlap period between AVHRR instruments, and between AVHRR and MODIS instruments. Because of uncertainties, mainly due to clouds, time-series of satellite IST do not necessarily correspond with actual surface temperatures. The CDR will be validated by comparing results with automatic-weather station data and with satellite-derived surface-temperature products and biases will be calculated.

Hall, Dorthy K.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Burning Embers: Towards More Transparent and Robust Climate-change Risk Assessments

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports provide policy-relevant insights about climate impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation through a process of peer-reviewed literature assessments underpinned by expert judgement. An iconic output from these assessments is the burning embers diagram, first used in the Third Assessment Report to visualize reasons for concern, which aggregate climate-change-related impacts and risks to various systems and sectors. These burning embers use colour transitions to show changes in the assessed level of risk to humans and ecosystems as a function of global mean temperature. In this Review, we outline the history and evolution of the burning embers and associated reasons for concern framework, focusing on the methodological approaches and advances. While the assessment framework and figure design have been broadly retained over time, refinements in methodology have occurred, including the consideration of different risks, use of confidence statements, more formalized protocols and standardized metrics. Comparison across reports reveals that the risk level at a given temperature has generally increased with each assessment cycle, reflecting accumulating scientific evidence. For future assessments, an explicit, transparent and systematic process of expert elicitation is needed to enhance comparability, quality and credibility of burning embers.

burning embers diagram↗
NASA NTRS1983

NASA/RAE collaboration on nonlinear control using the F-8C digital fly-by-wire aircraft

A cooperative advanced digital research experiment (CADRE) was established by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Royal Aircraft Establishment (RAE), in which nonlinear control algorithms developed by the RAE were tested on the F-8C digital fly-by-wire (DFBW) aircraft based at the Dryden Flight Research Facility. In the initial phase of the collaboration, some variable-gain algorithms, referred to collectively as variable integral control to optimize response (VICTOR) algorithms, were fight tested. With VICTOR, various measures available within the control system are used to vary gains and time-constants within the closed loop and thereby enhance the control capability of the system, while reducing the adverse effects of sensor noise on the control surfaces. A review of design procedures for VICTOR and results of preliminary flight tests are presented. the F-8C aircraft is operated in the remotely augmented vehicle (RAV) mode, with the control laws implemented as FORTRAN programs on a ground-based computer. Pilot commands and sensor information are telemetered to the ground, where the data are processed to form surface commands which are then telemetered to the ground, where the data are processed to form surface commands which are then telemetered back to the aircraft. The RAV mode represents a single-string (simplex) system and is therefore vulnerable to a hardover since comparison monitoring is not possible. Hence, extensive error checking is conducted on both the ground and airborne computers to prevent the development of potentially hazardous situations. Experience with the RAV monitoring and validation procedures is described.

Butler, G. F.↗