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NASA NTRS2019

A Fast Monte Carlo Method for Model-Based Prognostics Based on Stochastic Calculus

This work proposes a fast Monte Carlo method to solve differential equations utilized in model-based prognostics. The methodology is derived from the theory of stochastic calculus, and the goal of such a method is to speed up the estimation of the probability density functions describing the independent variable evolution over time. In the prognostic scenarios presented in this paper, the stochastic differential equations describe variables directly or indirectly related to the degradation of a monitored system. The method allows the estimation of the probability density functions by solving the deterministic equation and approximating the stochastic integrals using samples of the model noise. By so doing, the prognostic problem is solved without the Monte Carlo simulation based on Euler's forward method, which is typically the most time consuming task of the prediction stage. Three different prognostic scenarios are presented as proof of concept: (i) life prediction of electrolytic capacitors, (ii) remaining time to discharge of Lithium-ion batteries, and (iii) prognostic of cracked structures under fatigue loading. The paper shows how the method produces probability density functions that are statistically indistinguishable from the distributions estimated with Euler's forward Monte Carlo simulation. However, the proposed solution is orders of magnitude faster when computing the time-to-failure distribution of the monitored system. The approach may enable complex real-time prognostics and health management solutions with limited computing power.

stochastic calculus↗

DOE OSTI2025

Representing Complex Systems as Graphs for Debugging and Predictive Maintenance-Preliminary Thoughts

Representing complex systems as graphs enables use of mathematical tools to identify faults or predict failures. Graph nodes correspond to individual modules or subsystems, and edges link coupled system parts. ‘Probes’ measure the node outputs, monitoring the system health for unexpected behavior. Assuming one cannot probe every point, within a system, the fault correlates to a region—not necessarily the specific location. Bayesian networks trained to understand fault patterns can accurately identify the source. The diagnostic tool described aides debugging by pinpointing system failure causes. For predictive maintenance, probe data develop probability distribution functions describing subsystem mean time to failure. Unit lifetime can be estimated through these probability distributions. Two approaches include using Bayesian classifiers to infer the system failure source and developing maintenance schedules by treating systems as collections of random variables. When failure behavior does not follow a closed form function, use of similarity models is proposed.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1977

Rotor burst protection program: Statistics on aircraft gas turbine engine rotor failures that occurred in US commercial aviation during 1975

Statistics on gas turbine rotor failures that have occurred in U.S. commercial aviation during 1975 are presented. The compiled data were analyzed to establish: (1) The incidence of rotor failures and the number of contained and uncontained rotor bursts; (2) The distribution of rotor bursts with respect to engine rotor component; i.e., fan, compressor or turbine; (3) The type of rotor fragment (disk, rim or blade) typically generated at burst; (4) The cause of failure; (5) The type of engines involved; and (6) The flight condition at the time of failure.

Delucia, R. A.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Reliability Evaluation of Base-Metal-Electrode Multilayer Ceramic Capacitors for Potential Space Applications

Base-metal-electrode (BME) ceramic capacitors are being investigated for possible use in high-reliability spacelevel applications. This paper focuses on how BME capacitors construction and microstructure affects their lifetime and reliability. Examination of the construction and microstructure of commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) BME capacitors reveals great variance in dielectric layer thickness, even among BME capacitors with the same rated voltage. Compared to PME (precious-metal-electrode) capacitors, BME capacitors exhibit a denser and more uniform microstructure, with an average grain size between 0.3 and 0.5 m, which is much less than that of most PME capacitors. BME capacitors can be fabricated with more internal electrode layers and thinner dielectric layers than PME capacitors because they have a fine-grained microstructure and do not shrink much during ceramic sintering. This makes it possible for BME capacitors to achieve a very high capacitance volumetric efficiency. The reliability of BME and PME capacitors was investigated using highly accelerated life testing (HALT). Most BME capacitors were found to fail with an early avalanche breakdown, followed by a regular dielectric wearout failure during the HALT test. When most of the early failures, characterized with avalanche breakdown, were removed, BME capacitors exhibited a minimum mean time-to-failure (MTTF) of more than 105 years at room temperature and rated voltage. Dielectric thickness was found to be a critical parameter for the reliability of BME capacitors. The number of stacked grains in a dielectric layer appears to play a significant role in determining BME capacitor reliability. Although dielectric layer thickness varies for a given rated voltage in BME capacitors, the number of stacked grains is relatively consistent, typically around 12 for a number of BME capacitors with a rated voltage of 25V. This may suggest that the number of grains per dielectric layer is more critical than the thickness itself for determining the rated voltage and the life expectancy of the BME capacitor. The leakage current characterization and the failure analysis results suggest that most of these early avalanche failures are due to the extrinsic minor construction defects introduced during fabrication of BME capacitors. The concentration of the extrinsic defects must be reduced if the BME capacitors are considered for high reliability applications. There are two approaches that can reduce or prevent the occurrence of early failure in BME capacitors: (1) to reduce the defect concentration with improved processing control; (2) to prevent the use of BME capacitors under harsh external stress levels so that the extrinsic defects will never be triggered for a failure. In order to do so appropriate dielectric layer thickness must be determined for a given rated voltage.

Liu, David (Donhang)↗

DOE OSTI2022

Embedded sensors integrated into critical components for in situ health monitoring of steam turbines

Operational flexibility is desired in today’s coal-fired power plants to balance power grids by compensating for the variable electricity supply from renewable energy sources and distributed gensets. This demanding requirement accelerates materials degradation and makes in-situ health monitoring essential. Life monitoring of components and subsystems is thus seen as essential in assessing material and mechanical behavior to estimate system reliability, move to a conditionbased maintenance strategy and determine time to failure of the units in their actual operating conditions. Vibration monitoring can be exploited for blade tip timing to measure blade vibration amplitude and tip clearance to detect any deterioration taking place in the condition of steam turbine blades. A failure of a rotating blade can lead to severe turbine damage followed by extensive repairs and loss of power production. A blade vibration monitoring system can help early detection of abnormal blade vibration behavior. In conjunction with a health monitoring system, the vibration characteristics can be analyzed to support a pro-active maintenance and inspection schedule. While the feasibility of this inspection technique has been amply demonstrated, there is a need to install induction probes to magnetize the blade for signal output. Siemens, in partnership with Raytheon Technologies Research Corporation (RTRC), proposes a holistic approach to develop embedded sensors to utilize radio frequency for not only coupling to sensors, but as the sensing modality. The goal of this project is to “embed” the novel sensing approach by using either additively manufactured or extruded waveguides on rotating blades for recording, evaluation and monitoring of blade vibrations in Low Pressure turbines, with applications extending to aero engines

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2024

Highly accelerated life testing (HALT): A review from a statistical perspective

Despite its use in one form or another for at least four decades, HALT and related techniques [e.g., highly accelerated-stress screening (HASS) and stress audits (HASA)] are not well understood within the statistical community and remain controversial. This largely reflects a conflict in motivation between engineers, testing under harsh conditions to discover and eliminate failure modes, and statisticians, taking a more cautious approach to develop quantitative estimates of parameters such as mean time between failures (MTBF). Here, this review article will clarify HALT concepts and methods and explain where it fits within the universe of methods that involve the application of accelerating factors to compress the time required to evaluate or enhance product reliability. A major distinction is between methods such as HALT, a high-stress test-analyze-fix-test iterative process directed at improving reliability by discovering and fixing weak points in a design, and quantitative accelerated life testing (QALT), whose goal is the estimation of product life for a fixed design. We discuss methods such as physics of failure that offer some hope of bridging the gap between the qualitative nature of HALT, and purely quantitative statistical methods. We present a variety of engineering applications of HALT including metal fatigue, piping and pressure vessels, structural damage, radiation damage, and rotating machinery. We also discuss potential synergies between HALT and QALT, such as rapid identification, through HALT, of failure modes requiring quantitative analysis. For further study, extensive references to the applicable literature are provided as well as an appendix that describes related methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1962

DESIGN AND TEST EXPERIENCES WITH INSTABILITY OF MAJOR AIRFRAME COMPONENTS

Two test incidents involving instability of large scale commercially built structures are described. Two classes of structure are discussed; the first, a fuselage with skin designed to buckle at low stress, and the second, a wing whose surface remains unbuckled to failure. The structure in the region of failure is defined and the failures described and illustrated. Insofar as possible, the stresses in the critical area at the time of failure are reported and compared to strength determined by analysis. Both fuselage and wing surfaces were observed to fail in the mode of a medium range column when adequate support was provided by ribs and frames. Initial failure in the wing example was premature due to a design deficiency in rib strength. A clear illustration is given of the effect of rib stiffness on wing surface stability. Adding stiffness to wing ribs increases the limit of surface stability to the theoretical flat panel value.

SHELL STABILITY↗

NASA NTRS1988

An Investigation of the Ability to Recover from Transients Following Failures for Single-Pilot Rotorcraft

A moving-base simulation was conducted to investigate a pilot's ability to recover from transients following single-axis hard-over failures of the flight-control system. The investigation was performed in conjunction with a host simulation that examined the influence of control modes on a single pilot's ability to perform various mission elements under high-workload conditions. The NASA Ames large-amplitude-motion Vertical Motion Simulator (VMS) was utilized, and the experimental variables were the failure axis, the severity of the failure, and the airspeed at which the failure occurred. Other factors, such as pilot workload and terrain and obstacle proximity at the time of failure, were kept as constant as possible within the framework of the host simulation task scenarios. No explicit failure warnings were presented to the pilot. Data from the experiment are shown, and pilot ratings are compared with the proposed handling-qualities requirements for military rotorcraft. Results indicate that the current proposed failure transient requirements may need revision.

Mansur, M. Hossein↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Method for Estimating Time-Series PV Production Loss From Solar Tracking Failures

Solar tracking system failures can dramatically reduce photovoltaic (PV) system energy output through suboptimal irradiance capture and self-shading loss. Detecting tracker failures is not always straightforward; unlike other common PV system failures like inverter outages and blown fuses which take portions of a system completely offline, tracker failures only partially reduce output power and can go unnoticed as a result. Additionally, tracker failures can take one of several forms, each with their own loss characteristics. Here we present two methods of detecting tracker failure events from time-series production data and a method for estimating the associated production loss. Compared with existing detection methods, the proposed power-based detection method showed 0-17% reductions in Type I error rate depending on weather conditions. Here, the loss model estimated production loss with low error (mean bias error = -2.3 %, root-mean-squared error = 6%) in a rudimentary validation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The System Complexity Metric (SCM) Predicts System Costs and Failure Rates

A complex system has many parts and interactions and so is difficult to understand. Systems with higher complexity generally have higher costs and failure rates. A System Complexity Metric (SCM) is defined to be the sum of the number of nodes, N, in the system block diagram plus the number of one-way interactions, I, between the nodes. SCM = N + I. SCMs are easily determined by direct inspection of high level block diagrams of life support systems. System cost was found to be directly proportional to SCM. The system MTBF (Mean Time Before Failure) is the inverse of the system failure rate. MTBF = 1/f. The system MTBF was found to be proportional to SCM^(-2.2) for estimated preflight MTBFs. As is typical for systems that are not extensively tested and redesigned to eliminate unexpected failure modes, the life support flight failure rates were about ten times higher than the preflight estimates and the MTBFs one-tenth the preflight estimates. The system MTBF was found to be proportional to SCM^(-2.6) for observed flight MTBFs.

System compleity↗

NASA NTRS2003

A Survey of Logic Formalisms to Support Mishap Analysis

Mishap investigations provide important information about adverse events and near miss incidents. They are intended to help avoid any recurrence of previous failures. Over time, they can also yield statistical information about incident frequencies that helps to detect patterns of failure and can validate risk assessments. However, the increasing complexity of many safety critical systems is posing new challenges for mishap analysis. Similarly, the recognition that many failures have complex, systemic causes has helped to widen the scope of many mishap investigations. These two factors have combined to pose new challenges for the analysis of adverse events. A new generation of formal and semi-formal techniques have been proposed to help investigators address these problems. We introduce the term mishap logics to collectively describe these notations that might be applied to support the analysis of mishaps. The proponents of these notations have argued that they can be used to formally prove that certain events created the necessary and sufficient causes for a mishap to occur. These proofs can be used to reduce the bias that is often perceived to effect the interpretation of adverse events. Others have argued that one cannot use logic formalisms to prove causes in the same way that one might prove propositions or theorems. Such mechanisms cannot accurately capture the wealth of inductive, deductive and statistical forms of inference that investigators must use in their analysis of adverse events. This paper provides an overview of these mishap logics. It also identifies several additional classes of logic that might also be used to support mishap analysis.

Johnson, Chris↗

NASA NTRS1989

A real time microcomputer implementation of sensor failure detection for turbofan engines

An algorithm was developed which detects, isolates, and accommodates sensor failures using analytical redundancy. The performance of this algorithm was demonstrated on a full-scale F100 turbofan engine. The algorithm was implemented in real-time on a microprocessor-based controls computer which includes parallel processing and high order language programming. Parallel processing was used to achieve the required computational power for the real-time implementation. High order language programming was used in order to reduce the programming and maintenance costs of the algorithm implementation software. The sensor failure algorithm was combined with an existing multivariable control algorithm to give a complete control implementation with sensor analytical redundancy. The real-time microprocessor implementation of the algorithm which resulted in the successful completion of the algorithm engine demonstration, is described.

Delaat, John C.↗

NASA NTRS1990

A real time microcomputer implementation of sensor failure detection for turbofan engines

An algorithm was developed that detects, isolates, and accommodates sensor failures using analytical redundancy. The performance of this algorithm has been demonstrated on a full-scale F100 turbofan engine. The algorithm was implemented in real-time on a microprocessor-based controls computer which includes parallel processing and high order language programming. Parallel processing was used to achieve the required computational power for the real-time implementation. High order language programming was used in order to reduce the programming and maintenance costs of the algorithm implementation software. The sensor failure algorithm was combined with an existing multivariable control algorithm to give a complete control implementation with sensor analytical redundancy. The real-time microprocessor implementation of the algorithm, which resulted in the successful completion of the algorithm engine demonstration, is described.

Delaat, John C.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Fuel performance analysis of Cr-coated Zircaloy-4 cladding during a prototypical LOCA event using BISON

Here, deformation and failure of chromium (Cr) coated Zircaloy-4 (Zry-4) were studied in loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) conditions using the BISON fuel performance code. The BISON validation model simulating Halden research reactor experiments was extended to include Cr coatings and higher rod internal pressures to simulate high-burnup fuel. The transient simulations show Cr coatings help relieve stress in the Zry-4 substrate during the transient, delaying the onset of high-temperature creep, which leads to ballooning and bursting of the cladding. A nominal Cr coating thickness of 30 µm delays clad failure by 26 seconds and increases the clad burst temperature by 40 K. A parametric study showed that time to failure and burst temperature both increase with coating thickness, and Cr-coated cladding offers burst resistance under a wide range of rod internal pressures simulating high-burnup fuel. Results indicate that a thin Cr coating provides resistance against ballooning and bursting of cladding during LOCA events.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Probabilistic Failure Criterion of SiC/SiC Composites Under Multiaxial Loading

Owing to its excellent mechanical properties and stability under high temperature and neutron irradiation conditions, SiC/SiC composites have emerged as a promising material for light water reactors (LWRs) in the development of accident-tolerant fuel (ATF) systems. Structural integrity and retention of hermeticity are two crucial requirements for SiC/SiC claddings during normal operations, and both of them are closely related to the proportional limit stress (PLS) of the material. Understanding the behavior of SiC/SiC composites under multiaxial stress states and developing a probabilistic approach for evaluating the structural vulnerability are of paramount importance for reliability-based analysis and design of SiC/SiC composite claddings. So far, there has been very limited effort towards experimental and analytical investigations of probabilistic failure of SiC/SiC claddings. This critical knowledge gap motivates this research. A probabilistic failure criterion for SiC/SiC composites under multi-axial loading is developed, and this criterion is incorporated into reliability analysis of the structural integrity of SiC/SiC fuel cladding. The research consists of two parts: 1) experimental investigation of multiaxial failure behavior of SiC/SiC composites, and 2) theoretical modeling of time-dependent probabilistic failure of SiC/SiC cladding. In the experimental investigation, the PLS is determined through the examination of stress-strain response, the acoustic emission measurement, as well as the X-ray computed tomography. The theoretical framework is derived by combin- ing the finite weakest-link statistical model and the subcritical damage growth model. This theoretical model captures the time-dependent failure mechanism of the material, which has a major consequence for predicting the lifetime distribution of the cladding. Meanwhile, the model also predicts that the failure statistics of the cladding depends strongly on the cladding length. The results of the multiaxial experiments reveal the level of statistical variation of the PLS of SiC/SiC materials under different stress states. The theoretical model provides a robust analytical tool for extrapolation of small-scale laboratory test results to the behavior of full-scale claddings. These findings establish a scientific foundation for the development of reliability-based design of SiC/SiC fuel claddings, which will play an essential role in improving the structural safety and integrity of LWRs.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS2006

Effect of High Temperature Storage in Vacuum, Air, and Humid Conditions on Degradation of Gold/Aluminum Wire Bonds in PEMs

Microcircuits encapsulated in three plastic package styles were stored in different environments at temperatures varying from 130 C to 225 C for up to 4,000 hours in some cases. To assess the effect of oxygen, the parts were aged at high temperatures in air and in vacuum chambers. The effect of humidity was evaluated during long-term highly accelerated temperature and humidity stress testing (HAST) at temperatures of 130 C and 150 C. High temperature storage testing of decapsulated microcircuits in air, vacuum, and HAST chambers was carried out to evaluate the role of molding compounds in the environmentally-induced degradation and failure of wire bonds (WB). This paper reports on accelerating factors of environment and molding compound on WB failures. It has been shown that all environments, including oxygen, moisture, and the presence of molding compounds reduce time-to-failures compared to unencapsulated devices in vacuum conditions. The mechanism of the environmental effect on KB degradation is discussed.

Teverovsky, Alexander↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Inflatable Softgoods Testing Capability Development for Habitation

The Habitation Systems Development Office (HP40) at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center supports systems engineering, integration, and project management for next generation space habitats. The office is responsible for formulation activities for Lunar Surface Habitat and Mars Transit Habitat. HP40 also manages commercial partnerships for exploration habitat development. The Lunar Surface Habitat is intended to initially support a minimum of two crew on the lunar surface for an approximately 30-day mission, with the ability to accommodate four crew for short durations. The Mars Transit Habitat will transport four crew to and from Mars orbit on a potentially 1,200 day mission. Both concepts are envisioned to leverage inflatable softgoods as the primary structural material for the habitation portion of the architecture. Inflatable softgoods are a complex, multi-material system consisting of multiple layers which perform specific functions. A bladder layer (polymer) contains the habitat’s atmosphere. The bladder is indexed to a woven restraint layer, usually Kevlar or Vectran, which serves as the structural layer. The remaining outer layers are for micro-meteoroid orbital debris (MMOD) shielding, protection from atomic Oxygen (if the material system is to be deployed in low earth orbit), and thermal insulation. The primary advantage of inflatable softgoods is that they can offer a larger volume per unit mass relative to a rigid metal structure. Inflatable softgoods have a strong development heritage within NASA, beginning with work in the 1960s in partnership with Goodyear Aerospace and continuing with Johnson Space Center’s TransHab project in the 1990s . Some development efforts subsequently transitioned into the private sector to mature the material technology for flight applications, including human habitation. In August 2022, NASA published its guidelines for certification of crewed inflatable softgoods structures (JSC-67721). This document outlines a series of tests which will be needed to certify inflatable softgoods material systems for use in crewed mission applications. It includes burst testing at the subscale and full-scale to determine the ultimate burst pressure of the softgoods architecture. Creep (long term deformation of the material under stress) is a key failure mode which must be characterized. Creep testing at the component and module levels is also recommended to generate time to failure curves and verify that the inflatable system has a predicted operational life which exceeds mission parameters. ET (Test Engineering) at MSFC and HP40 have worked together to establish softgoods testing capabilities for the center. This includes the ability to conduct module level burst tests and creep tests. The poster will highlight these capabilities and provide examples of testing which has been performed to date by ET. NASA MSFC anticipates that these test capabilities will continue to offer critical support for companies pursuing inflatable softgoods for exploration applications (lunar surface habitation, Mars transit) as well as commercial low earth orbit platforms.

habitation↗

NASA NTRS2017

A Thermal Runaway Failure Model for Low-Voltage BME Ceramic Capacitors with Defects

Reliability of base metal electrode (BME) multilayer ceramic capacitors (MLCCs) that until recently were used mostly in commercial applications, have been improved substantially by using new materials and processes. Currently, the inception of intrinsic wear-out failures in high quality capacitors became much greater than the mission duration in most high-reliability applications. However, in capacitors with defects degradation processes might accelerate substantially and cause infant mortality failures. In this work, a physical model that relates the presence of defects to reduction of breakdown voltages and decreasing times to failure has been suggested. The effect of the defect size has been analyzed using a thermal runaway model of failures. Adequacy of highly accelerated life testing (HALT) to predict reliability at normal operating conditions and limitations of voltage acceleration are considered. The applicability of the model to BME capacitors with cracks is discussed and validated experimentally.

reliability↗