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Several schemes for discriminating severe weather phenomena with the aid of different algorithms are examined. The schemes were tested on the same sample. A comparative estimate of the effectiveness of the different algorithms for classifying thunderstorms and showers is carried out.
From video-tape recordings of lightning flashes to ground in convective daytime storms at the NASA Kennedy Space Center, Florida, and near Ocala, Florida, statistical data are presented for the flash-time duration, the number of strokes per flash, the time between all strokes, and the time between strokes having spatially separate channels. A daytime video tape 'photograph' of a stepped leader is reproduced. Finally, statistical data are presented for 13 long horizontal lightning discharges occurring along a line of nocturnal thunderstorms near Gainesville, Florida. These discharges all propagated horizontally near the freezing level (4.5 km) at an apparent average velocity between 5600 and 11,000 m/s for a typical distance of 2 to 3 km. Eleven of the 13 horizontal discharges were preceded by or occurred within 16.7 ms of a glow in the cloud roughly 0.5 km above the horizontal channel.
It is suggested that variations of the current in the global atmospheric electrical circuit can be produced through regulation of the resistance between the tops of thunderclouds and the ionosphere. Long- and short-term changes in the conductivity of this region occur due to changes in the ionization rate resulting from solar activity. Previous suggestions that the phenomena might be due to conductivity variations in the fair weather part of the world or an influx of space charge to the upper atmosphere are discussed and considered unlikely. It might be possible to test the proposed mechanism by measuring the temporal variation of the ionospheric potential during distributed solar periods. Another approach would be to measure simultaneously the variation in ionization rate and electric current over thunderstorms. Several ways in which changes in atmospheric electrification might influence other meteorological phenomena are mentioned.
A numerical model was developed to simulate the evolution and structure of severe thunderstorm gust fronts. The model is a non-hydrostatic, fine resolution, cross-sectional primitive equation model. Two-dimensional horizontal and vertical equations of motion, the continuity equation, and the thermodynamic energy equation were utilized. It was shown that two dominant factors influencing gust front configuration are surface friction and the solenoidal field coincident with the front. It is suggested that solenoidal accelerations oppose the deceleration of surface friction. After a downdraft is initiated in the model, these opposing tendencies soon reach a balance and the gust front achieves a quasi-steady configuration. Thus, the experiments indicate that surface friction does not induce a cycle of front formation and collapse. In addition, the effect of evaporative cooling in producing a vigorous downdraft was parameterized by a local cooling function. Greater cooling in the downdraft results in a more intense gust front that exhibits stronger wind maximums and greater shears. The ambient air stability was shown to be an important factor influencing the depth of the cold outflow.
The behavior of overshooting tops and jumping cirrus observed in three tornado-producing thunderstorms during the 1974 Learjet Cloud-Truth experiment is discussed. An investigation of temporal changes in the heights of overshooting domes (conglomerations of overshooting tops with diameters less than 1 km) reveals several distinctive features associated with tornadic events. There is a gradual decrease in dome height prior to tornado touchdown. Minimum dome activity occurred 5 min after, 5.5 min before, and at approximately the same time as the tornadic event in the storms observed. In all cases, dramatic dome growth at a rate of 17 to 23 m/sec immediately followed the occurrence of the minimum dome heights. There is evidence that tornado production is insensitive to the pre-touchdown maximum dome heights between 1 and 3 km.
Correlative evidence accumulating since 1926 suggests that there must be some physical coupling mechanism between solar activity and thunderstorm occurrence in middle to high latitudes. Such a link may be provided by alteration of atmospheric electric parameters through the combined influence of high-energy solar protons and decreased cosmic ray intensities, both of which are associated with active solar events. The protons produce excess ionization near and above 20km, while the Forbush decreases a lowered conductivity and enhanced fair-weather atmospheric electric field below that altitude. Consequent effects ultimately lead to a charge distribution similar to that found in thunderclouds, and then other cloud physics processes take over to generate the intense electric fields required for lightning discharge.
The structure of the thunderstorm gust front is investigated by a nonhydrostatic, two-dimensional (x,z) numerical model. In the model, which is dry, the production of negatively buoyant air by evaporation is parameterized via an externally imposed, local-cooling function. This parameterization sustains a steady cold downdraft, which drives the surface outflow and associated gust front. It is shown that two dominant factors influencing gust front structure in the vertical plane are the solenoidal field coincident with the front and surface friction, modeled by means of a simple bulk aerodynamic drag formulation. The circulation theorem is invoked to illustrate how solenoidal accelerations oppose the deceleration by surface friction. After the onset of a downdraft in the model, these opposing tendencies soon reach a balance. Thus, following a brief transient stage, the model gust front exhibits a persistent configuration as it propagates rapidly forward. The essential features of this configuration are examined and compared with both tower observations of gust fronts and laboratory models of gravity currents.
A post analysis of the previous day's weather, followed by the day's forecast and an outlook on weather conditions for the following day is given. The normal NOAA weather charts were used, complemented by the latest GOES satellite pictures, the latest rawinsonde sounding, and the computer-derived thunderstorm probability forecasts associated with the sounding.
It has been shown that SMS digital IR data can be used to calculate parameters which appear to be related to cloud or thunderstorm growth rates and variations in cloud top structure. The data appear to be useful in examining both clearly defined single clouds and cold areas within mature cirrus anvils. The data used for this study were blackbody temperatures derived from digital IR data from SMS-2 for a series of storms over the midwest United States on May 6, 1975.
Twenty-five field mill sites provided data on the electric fields produced during both the intense and the final, less active periods of summer air mass thunderstorms in east central Florida. During the periods of intense lightning activity, time- and area-averaged fields were usually -0.8 to -2.1 kV/m, while for the less active periods, the field values were typically in the range of -2.3 to -4.3 kV/m. Furthermore, during the active storm periods, which represented about 27% of the total storm durations, about 71% of all lightning discharges occurred. Also, fewer lightning discharges in the final storm period than in the active period reached the ground.
Thunderstorm growth rates are investigated through use of infrared data furnished by the Synchronous Meteorological Satellite. Blackbody temperature isotherms provide an accurate method of delineating the areal expansion of cold areas; the blackbody temperature isotherms are valuable analytical tools even in cases when there is very little decrease with time of the minimum cloud top temperature. In an application of the severe storm monitoring technique, the origin of tornadoes is found to be closely linked to a rapid expansion of cold areas in seven out of eight cases.
The origin of tornadoes is studied on the basis of changing radar echo shapes and tornado location relative to the echoes. Three types of tornadoes appear to be associated with different hook echo configurations. No-turn or right-turn tornadoes are linked to a steady hook which does not change shape or orientation. Left-turn tornado families are generated in cases where the hook is unsteady and changes orientation at each successive tornado birth. Finally, left-turn tornado families may also be formed when the hook undergoes no orientation change and the tornadoes move along the rear of the hook. The correlation between a thunderstorm-scale cycle and periodic tornado production is also discussed.
An experiment designed to observe and measure a thunderstorm prior to, during, and after its development over the Kennedy Space Center was successful. Correlated measurements of airborne field strength, ground-based field strength, LDAR lightning discharge location in the clouds, weather radar percipitation echoes, plus ground strike location with the new KSC Ground Strike Location System (GSLS) were gathered, and reported. This test marks the first operational use of the GSLS System, and this report contains the first report of its design and capabilities.
A research program was conducted to better understand the relation of vertical shear of the horizontal wind in the environment and of momentum exchange to thunderstorm motion and intensity.
Computer simulation of aircraft landing through thunderstorm gust fronts is carried out. The two-dimensional, nonlinear equations or aircraft motion containing all wind shear terms are solved numerically. The gust front spatial wind field inputs are provided in the form of tabulated experimental data which are coupled with a computer table lookup routine to provide the required wind components and shear at any given position within an approximate 500 m by 1 km vertical plane. The aircraft is considered to enter the wind field at a specified position under trimmed conditions. Both fixed control and automatic control landings are simulated. Flight paths, as well as control inputs necessary to maintain specified trajectories, are presented and discussed for aircraft having characteristics of a DC-8, B-747, augmentor-wing STOL, and a DHC-6.
Storm data obtained on August 1, 1977 are examined in an attempt to interpret the relationship between lightning occurrence and the thunderstorm inner dynamics and precipitation processes. Horizontal maps are presented which indicated the position of radiation sources detected by the Lightning Detection and Ranging (LDAR) network, together with the horizontal motion fields and radar reflectivity data. Detailed inspection of these fields showed that, although radiation sources are found in the vicinity of precipitation cells, they are not located in the heavy precipitation areas, but rather on their rear side in regions where the configuration of the wind fields suggests the presence of updrafts.
The parametric dependence of storm simulation is explored on the basis of the previously reported (1977) second-order closure model of turbulence designed to simulate a thunderstorm gust front. The model simulation results are intended for extrapolation to the conditions considered most hazardous to aircraft operation. It is shown that the presistence and strength of the gust front are enhanced significantly by increasing the spread of the downdraft shaft and the velocity at the top of the domain. Turbulence develops in the regions of high shear and is most intense near the corner and within the gust front itself. While the center shaft is certainly an area to be avoided, the gust front region is probably more critical because it may extend over a large region far from the center of the downdraft, in a highly transient state.
A 16 mm camera equipped with a photocell optical sensor and a two-channel tape recorder will be used by Shuttle astronauts to obtain information on thunderstorms and lightning from orbital altitude. The camera will provide photographs of the lightning at night and of the convective structure of the storms during the day. The photocell sensor, which is capable of detecting and recording lightning by day and by night, will give information on the frequency and characteristics of the lightning that is occurring.