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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2021

Autonomous Tools for Attack Surface Reduction (Final Report)

The electric power grid is a complex critical infrastructure that forms the lifeline of modern society, and its secure and reliable operation is of paramount importance to national security and economic wellbeing. However, recent findings documented in authoritative sources indicate the threat of cyber-based attacks growing in numbers and sophistication. However, securing the grid against stealthy cyberattacks is a challenging task due to legacy nature of the infrastructure coupled with dynamic nature of threat landscape and ever-growing sophistication of the adversaries. Additionally, the grid’s attack surface continues to grow with the increased dependence on digital communications and control that now extends to each consumer through smart meters and distributed energy resources. Unfortunately, this expansive surface increases the grid’s vulnerability and further exposes critical control systems in both substations and control centers. To respond to this emerging need, we had successfully assembled an interdisciplinary team with academic- industry partnership to successfully conduct research, development, evaluation, demonstration, and commercialization of attack surface reduction tools, whose goal was to significantly reduce the cyber attack surface in the North American power grid. Our proposed project was a synergistic collaborative effort leveraging the synergistic expertise of the team members across power systems, cyber security and CPS security, testbeds, field deployments and demonstration, and successful commercialization. The following are the specific tasks that have been successfully completed two phases (2016-2020). Phase I: Task 1: Developed and implemented a robust Project Management and Data Management Plan, coupled with a well thought out Risk Mitigation Plan. Task 2.1: Developed a comprehensive framework that continually assesses and autonomously reduces the attack surface for the power grid control environment spanning across substations, control center and the SCADA network to significantly reduce the risks of cyber attacks. Task 2.2: Developed attack surface analysis techniques, metrics, and tools that assess the attack surface at multiple levels including the control center, substations, and the SCADA network. Task 2.3: Developed attack surface reduction techniques and tools that dynamically reduce attack surface and hence increase attacker’s cost without interfering in the critical functions of the system. Task 2.4: Prototyped, implemented, and quantitatively evaluated/validated the techniques and tools on a realistic industrial CPS security testbed environment by leveraging the unique resources of the team. Task 3: Developed Commercialization plan to transition the developed tools into power system industry stakeholders for a broader adoption by leveraging the expertise of our industrial members. Phase II: Task 4: Successfully completed field demonstration, verification, and evaluation of the effectiveness of the attack surface analysis and reduction techniques on a realistic utility testbed environment. This also involved the development of realistic scenarios, sound metrics, data sets, evaluation criteria, and documentation. Technology integration & Field demonstration: The project had significantly advanced the state-of-the-art research and practice in improving the cybersecurity of our nation’s power grid infrastructure against cyber threats. In particular, the proposed, designed, and deployed attack surface analysis and reduction algorithms and tools have contributed to significantly reducing the exposure and risk of the devices, substations, and the integrated SCADA/EMS/ DMS grid environment to cyber threat. Strong demonstration and evaluation techniques have verified the feasibility of the developed techniques on realistic cyber-physical testbeds and utility partner's real grid environment, and collaborative research and evaluation of attack surface reduction techniques (for wide-are monitoring and control) within a vendor (GE) EMS platform. The Attack Host Analyzer (AHA) tool that was developed through this project was made available through GitHub.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Scientific and stakeholder evidence-based assessment: Ecosystem response to floating solar photovoltaics and implications for sustainability

Floating solar photovoltaic (FPV) installations are increasing globally. However, their interaction with the hosting water body and implications for ecosystem function is poorly understood. Understanding potential impacts is critical as water bodies provide many ecosystem services on which humans rely and are integral for delivering the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Here, we used scientific evidence from a systematic review and stakeholder expertise, captured through an international survey and a workshop, alongside existing understanding of the role of water bodies in delivering ecosystem services and the SDGs. We found 22 evidence outcomes that indicated potential physical, chemical and biological impacts of FPV on water bodies. Assessment by stakeholders from across sectors indicated that reduced water evaporation is the greatest opportunity, whilst changes to water chemistry, including nitrification and deoxygenation, are the greatest threat. Despite these findings, FPV operators reported no observed water quality or ecosystem impacts. However, only 15% of respondents had performed water quality analysis; visual inspection alone cannot ascertain all water quality impacts. Based on the integration of these findings, we determined that FPV could impact nine ecosystem services. Furthermore, established linkages between ecosystem services and SDGs indicate the potential for impacts on eight SDGs, although whether the impact is positive or negative is likely to depend on FPV design and water body type. Our results further the understanding of the effects of FPVs on host water bodies and may help to ensure the anticipated growth in FPVs minimises threats and maximises opportunities, safeguarding overall sustainability.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Estimating Tropical Cyclone Threats to Floating Rigs in the Gulf of Mexico

Offshore drilling operations in the Gulf of Mexico are particularly vulnerable during hurricane season. When a weather threat arises, a decision to evacuate the rig and/or move to a safe location may need to be made. Depending on the activities in progress at the time of the threat, securing the well, evacuating, and/or moving to a safe location can take a considerable amount of time. This transition time is called T-time. T-time is not only rig dependent, but also depends on the activity being performed at the time of the threat. For these reasons it is important to assess tropical cyclone threats and the time it takes for them to reach the rig location. The objective of this study is to use the available 50 years of past cyclone history to estimate cyclone threats at any location in the Gulf of Mexico. The cyclone threat is estimated based on the rig location as well as the start date and duration of the offshore activity. By threat, it is meant the likelihood that a specific location with an associated offshore activity would be exposed to an upcoming cyclone whose forecasted track cone and storm size lies within that location. Three representative rig locations in the Gulf of Mexico were selected as assessment sites to evaluate the threat of incoming cyclones for different T-times. To conduct this tropical cyclone study, an Excel spreadsheet tool was developed to automate the analysis of the tropical cyclone data from the Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) Version 4. The spreadsheet tool allows the user to input any location (i.e., longitude and latitude) in the Gulf of Mexico and displays a list of historical cyclones that have passed within 150 nautical miles of that location during the activity period selected by the user. Also, the tool allows the user to input a T-time to assess the threat of cyclones that would not provide adequate time to secure the well, evacuate, and/or move to a safe location.

Risk↗

DOE OSTI2026

Equipment Assessment Guide: A Technical Inspection and Hardening Guide for Devices in Power Grid Operations

This Equipment Assessment Guide, developed by Idaho National Laboratory (INL), provides a comprehensive framework designed to enhance the security of operational technology (OT) devices within power grid operations. The guide outlines essential steps for asset owners to conduct technical inspections and harden vulnerable hardware and firmware components commonly found in embedded systems. It focuses on components frequently targeted by cyber threats, offering valuable identification techniques for locating and recognizing critical components on devices. Additionally, the guide presents recommended secure configurations aimed at minimizing exposure and reinforcing defenses, along with impact analysis that highlights the potential consequences for grid operations if components are compromised. By implementing the recommendations outlined in this guide, asset owners can significantly enhance their cybersecurity posture, reduce the attack surface of field-deployed devices, and improve the resilience of grid services against emerging cyber threats.

42 - ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Tri-molybdenum phosphide (Mo 3 P) and multi-walled carbon nanotube junctions for volatile organic compounds (VOCs) detection

Detection and analysis of volatile organic compounds' (VOCs) biomarkers lead to improvement in healthcare diagnosis and other applications such as chemical threat detection and food quality control. Here, we report on tri-molybdenum phosphide (Mo3P) and multiwalled carbon nanotube (MWCNT) junction-based vapor quantum resistive sensors (vQRSs), which exhibit more than one order of magnitude higher sensitivity and superior selectivity for biomarkers in comparison to pristine MWCNT junctions based vQRSs. Transmission electron microscope/scanning tunneling electron microscope with energy dispersive x-ray spectroscopy, x-ray diffraction, and x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy studies reveal the crystallinity and the presence of Mo and P elements in the network. The presence of Mo3P clearly enhanced the performance of vQRS as evidenced in sensitivity and selectivity studies. The vQRSs are stable over extended periods of time and are reproducible, making them a potential candidate for sensing related applications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Collection And Analysis Of Telemetry For The Cyote Heuristic

CATCH CLI focuses on gathering telemetry data, storing it in the Neo4j database, querying for Mitre ATT&CK patterns, and creating STIX 2.1 reports. Key Components: Analysis Modules: Analyze data to detect attack patterns. GoSTOTS Collection Engines: Collect telemetry data. These tools can be used together or individually. Analysis modules rely on data from specific engines to identify attack patterns. Source Code Organization: Engines: CATCH/catch/cmd/collection Modules: CATCH/catch/cmd/analysis CGUI Overview CATCH Graphical User Interface (CGUI) offers a graphical shell to execute CATCH CLI, allowing easy editing of: Analysis Modules Database configurations Profiles (collection and device settings) Neo4j Overview Neo4j is a graph database using the Cypher query language, storing data in JSON. It seamlessly integrates with STIX 2.1 data for: Data Submission: CATCH Collection Engines Data Querying: Analysis Modules CATCH modifies STIX 2.1 data for Neo4j submission and reverts it back during querying. STIG Overview Structured Threat Intelligence Graph (STIG) is a tool for creating, editing, querying, analyzing, and visualizing threat intelligence using STIX 2.1 and storing data in Neo4j. Usage Tools can be run: Manually (CLI): Refer to CATCH documentation User Interface: Run ./cgui/CGUI or go run ./cgui/ Additional Information Logging System: Detailed in the config documentation Further Documentation: Available for CATCH and CGUI

Madsen, MichaelJ. [Idaho National Laboratory (INL)↗

NASA NTRS2017

Aqua vs TanSat: A Long-Term Analysis

A six-year analysis between Aqua and TanSat was conducted in order to assess whether or not TanSat would be a continued threat to Aqua. It is predicted that TanSat will cross Aqua seven times prior to Aqua's predicted constellation exit and lowering in February 2022. The predicted crossing geometry is generally favorable at any of the crossings due to TanSat's orbit eccentricity.

Pharr, James↗

NASA NTRS2012

A Geometric Analysis to Protect Manned Assets from Newly Launched Objects - COLA Gap Analysis

A safety risk was identified for the International Space Station (ISS) by The Aerospace Corporation following the launch of GPS IIR-20 (March 24, 2009), when the spent upper stage of the launch vehicle unexpectedly crossed inside the ISS notification box shortly after launch. This event highlighted a 56-hour vulnerability period following the end of the launch Collision Avoidance (COLA) process where the ISS would be unable to react to a conjunction with a newly launched object. Current launch COLA processes screen each launched object across the launch window to determine if an object's nominal trajectory is predicted to pass within 200 km of the ISS (or any other manned/mannable object), resulting in a launch time closure. These launch COLA screens are performed from launch through separation plus I 00 minutes. Once the objects are in orbit, they are cataloged and evaluated as part of routine on-orbit conjunction assessment processes. However, as the GPS IIR-20 scenario illustrated, there is a vulnerability period in the time line between the end of launch COLA coverage and the beginning of standard on-orbit COLA assessment activities. The gap between existing launch and on-orbit COLA processes is driven by the time it takes to track and catalog a launched object, identify a conjunction, and plan and execute a collision avoidance maneuver. For the ISS, the total time required to accomplish an of these steps is 56 hours. To protect human lives, NASA/JSC has requested that an US launches take additional steps to protect the ISS during this "COLA gap" period. The uncertainty in the state of a spent upper stage can be quite large after all bums are complete and all remaining propellants are expelled to safe the stage. Simply extending the launch COLA process an additional 56 hours is not a viable option as the 3-sigma position uncertainty will far exceed the 200 km miss-distance criterion. Additionally, performing a probability of collision (Pc) analysis over this period is also not practical due to the limiting effects of these large orbit state uncertainties. An estimated upper bound for Pc for a typical spent upper stage if nominally aligned for a direct broadside collision with the ISS is only on the order of 10-6. For a smaller manned object such as a Soyuz capsule, the risk level decreases to an order of 10'8 . In comparison, the Air Force Range policy (AFI 91-217) for launch COLAs would only eliminate launch opportunities when conjunctions with objects exceed a Pc of 10'5 This paper demonstrates a conservative geometry-based methodology that may be used to determine if launch opportunities pose a threat to the ISS during the COLA gap period. The NASA Launch Services Program at Kennedy Space Center has developed this COLA gap analysis method and employed it fQr three NASA missions to identify potential ISS conjunctions and corresponding launch window closures during the 56-hour at-risk period. In the analysis, for each launch opportunity, the nominal trajectory of the spent upper stage and the orbit state of the ISS are propagated over the 56 hour period. Each time the upper stage crosses the orbit plane of the ISS, the relative radial and argument of latitude separations are calculated. A window cutout is identified if these separation differences fall within a mission-specific violation box, which is determined from the evaluation of a Monte Carlo dispersions analysis that quantifies the potential variation in the upper stage radial and argument of latitude differences. This paper details the results of these analyses and their impacts to each mission.

Hametz, Mark E.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Adapting Traditional Hazards Analysis Methods to Address Cyber Risks

Traditional hazards analysis (HA) methods, originally developed to address physical and operational risks, often fall short when it comes to identifying and mitigating cyber threats. These cyber threats pose unique and evolving risks to critical infrastructure and industrial control systems (ICS). This report explores the integration of Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) principles into existing HA methods to enhance their ability to address cyber-induced risks. CIE provides organizations with a practical, cost-effective approach to closing the gap between traditional HA methods and the need for cyber risk mitigation. By leveraging existing safety processes and controls, CIE allows users to examine and mitigate cyber vulnerabilities without overhauling existing HA methods. This report identifies areas where HA and CIE naturally align and where their approaches diverge. It emphasizes how CIE principles can be used to adapt HA methods, broadening their scope to include cyber risks and enabling the mitigation of cyber- induced impacts alongside traditional hazards and failure scenarios. This report examines how CIE can be applied across various HA methods—such as Hazard and Operability Studies (HAZOP), Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA), Systems-Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA), Hazard and Consequence Analysis for Digital Systems (HAZCADS), and Layers of Protection Analysis (LOPA). It provides strategies for integrating CIE to strengthen the identification, assessment, and mitigation of cyber-induced risks. The findings offer a structured entry point for organizations to embed CIE concepts into hazards and safety analyses, as well as broader engineering processes, ultimately supporting the design and operation of a more resilient infrastructure.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Adapting Traditional Hazards Analysis Methods to Address Cyber Risks

42 - ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Discovering the Molecular Determinants of Phaeobacter inhibens Susceptibility to Phaeobacter Phage MD18

Bacteriophages are useful nonantibiotic therapeutics for bacterial infections as well as threats to industries utilizing bacterial agents. This study identified Phaeobacter virus MD18 , a phage antagonist of Phaeobacter inhibens , a bacterium with promising use as a probiotic for aquatic farming industries. Genomic analysis suggested that Phaeobacter phage MD18 has evolved to enhance its replication in P. inhibens by adopting favorable tRNA genes as well as through genomic sequence adaptation to resemble host codon usage. Lastly, a high-throughput analysis of P. inhibens transposon insertion mutants identified genes that modulate host susceptibility to phage MD18 and implicated the type IV pilus as the likely receptor recognized for adsorption. This study marks the first characterization of the relationship between P. inhibens and an environmentally sampled phage, which informs our understanding of natural threats to the bacterium and may promote the development of novel phage technologies for genetic manipulation of this host.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Potential Academic Research Topics of National Security Relevance

Since even before its establishment as an independent national security laboratory in 1949, Sandia has been devoted to an overarching mission of developing advanced technologies for global peace. These technologies have taken a variety of forms, and they exist in and must address an ever-changing global security environment. An understanding of that global security environment and its possible or likely evolution is therefore critical to ensuring that Sandia can maintain its focus on strategic technology investments that will benefit the nation in the next 20- 30 years. Sandia sustains multiple Systems Analysis organizations whose responsibility includes maintaining an understanding of the global security environment as it applies across multiple mission domains. The topics below include two from Sandia's emerging threats and biodefense mission, three with relevance to Sandia's cyber defense mission, and four of particular but not exclusive relevance to Sandia's nuclear deterrence mission. All are intended to spur independent academic thought that could assist Sandia as well as the broader national security community in anticipating and adapting to a continually changing world. Sandia anticipates periodic interactions between Sandia Systems Analysis staff and SciPol Scholars Program faculty and students who choose to expand upon these topics in order to provide opportunities for feedback and communication throughout 2020-2021.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Inertia Estimation and Trend Analysis of the United States Power Grid Interconnections

The transition from conventional to modern power systems is causing an increase in integration of inverter-based resources (IBRs). This generally leads to a decrease in total system inertia, which in-turn increases the system’s rate-of-change-of-frequency (RoCoF) during disturbances. This poses a threat to the frequency stability of the system and may falsely trigger protective devices. To monitor system status and plan for integrating renewable energy sources like photovoltaic, wind, and energy storage systems, a realistic study of inertia estimation and analysis in the United States (US) over the past decade is needed. This paper uses field-measured phasor measurement unit (PMU) data collected throughout the US from 2013 to 2023 via the Frequency Monitoring Network (FNET/GridEye) operated by the University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK) and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). The collected PMU frequency data is utilized to estimate the system inertia of the three US interconnections: Eastern, Western, and Texas. Various RoCoF time windows are investigated for estimating the inertia of each interconnection by maximizing the correlation coefficient between the measured RoCoF and power mismatch. The resulting inertia trends over the past decade show approximately a 6% decline in inertia in the Eastern interconnection, a 15% decline in inertia in the Western interconnection, and a 16% increase in inertia in Texas. Key insights into how inertia is changing amidst the complex energy landscape are extracted using the fuel mix trend data. This provides valuable information for future energy strategies and planning.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

NASA NTRS2018

GTTC Future of Ground Testing Meta-Analysis of 20 Documents

National research, development, test, and evaluation ground testing capabilities in the United States are at risk. There is a lack of vision and consensus on what is and will be needed, contributing to a significant threat that ground test capabilities may not be able to meet the national security and industrial needs of the future. To support future decisions, the AIAA Ground Testing Technical Committee’s (GTTC) “Future of Ground Test” (FoGT) Working Group selected and reviewed 20 “seminal” documents related to the application and direction of ground testing. Each document was reviewed, with the content main points collected and organized into sections in the form of a gap analysis – current state, future state, major challenges/gaps, and recommendations. This paper includes key findings and selected commentary by an editing team.

Dunn, Steven C.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Resilience Enhancements through Deep Learning Yields

This report documents the Resilience Enhancements through Deep Learning Yields (REDLY) project, a three-year effort to improve electrical grid resilience by developing scalable methods for system operators to protect the grid against threats leading to interrupted service or physical damage. The computational complexity and uncertain nature of current real-world contingency analysis presents significant barriers to automated, real-time monitoring. While there has been a significant push to explore the use of accurate, high-performance machine learning (ML) model surrogates to address this gap, their reliability is unclear when deployed in high-consequence applications such as power grid systems. Contemporary optimization techniques used to validate surrogate performance can exploit ML model prediction errors, which necessitates the verification of worst-case performance for the models.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Physical & Cyber Security Modeling Interfacing Through Dante and ARCADE

Physical security is increasingly facing new threats from cyber attackers, for which there is little research in the way of characterizing this threat. This report discusses the efforts to combine cyber and physical security modeling tools to investigate this novel combinatorial threat space. To accomplish this, the Dante force-on-force modeling and simulation software and the Advanced Reactor Cyber Analysis and Development Environment (ARCADE) were integrated. Dante provides a 3D environment which models the physical world, while ARCADE provides the cyber and control systems world.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS1988

Atmospheric Science and Remote Sensing Laboratory

During the contract year, scientific research on lightning and lightning hazards was carried out for the Atmospheric Electricity Group in the MSFC Remote Sensing Branch (ED43). These tasks included research on modeling the interaction of lightning optical pulses and cloud particles, estimating lightning hazard threats to the STS system, a small field project to determine the charge structure of winter and stratiform thunderstorms, and analysis of optical pulse data. These activities were performed in conjunction with the ED43 mission to develop a lightning mapper to be placed on one of the GOES-next operational satellites.

Mach, Douglas↗

NASA NTRS1997

Human Migration and Agricultural Expansion: An Impending Threat to the Maya Biosphere Reserve

Evidence is presented of the current threats to the Maya Biosphere Reserve in northern Guatemala as derived through time-series Landsat Thematic Mapper observations and analysis. Estimates of deforestation rates and trends are examined for different management units within the reserve and buffer zones. The satellite imagery was used to quantify and monitor rates, patterns, and trends of forest clearing during a time period corresponding to new road construction and significant human migration into the newly accessible forest region. Satellite imagery is appropriate technology in a vast and remote tropical region where aerial photography and extensive field-based methods are not cost-effective and current, timely data is essential for establishing conservation priorities.

Sader, Steven↗