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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

General Multifidelity Surrogate Models: Framework and Active-Learning Strategies for Efficient Rare Event Simulation

Estimating the probability of failure for complex real-world systems using high-fidelity computational models is often prohibitively expensive, especially when the probability is small. Exploiting low-fidelity models can make this process more feasible, but merging information from multiple low-fidelity and high-fidelity models poses several challenges. Here, this paper presents a robust multi-fidelity surrogate modeling strategy in which the multi-fidelity surrogate is assembled using an active learning strategy using an on-the-fly model adequacy assessment set within a subset simulation framework for efficient reliability analysis. The multi-fidelity surrogate is assembled by first applying a Gaussian process correction to each low-fidelity model and assigning a model probability based on the model's local predictive accuracy and cost. Three strategies are proposed to fuse these individual surrogates into an overall surrogate model based on model averaging and deterministic/stochastic model selection. The strategies also dictate which model evaluations are necessary. No assumptions are made about the relationships between low-fidelity models, while the high-fidelity model is assumed to be the most accurate and most computationally expensive model. Through two analytical and two numerical case studies, including a case study evaluating the failure probability of Tristructural isotropic-coated (TRISO) nuclear fuels, the algorithm is shown to be highly accurate while drastically reducing the number of high-fidelity model calls (and hence computational cost).

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Data assimilation empowered neural network parametrizations for subgrid processes in geophysical flows

In the past couple of years, there has been a proliferation in the use of machine learning approaches to represent subgrid-scale processes in geophysical flows with an aim to improve the forecasting capability and to accelerate numerical simulations of these flows. Despite its success for different types of flow, the online deployment of a data-driven closure model can cause instabilities and biases in modeling the overall effect of subgrid-scale processes, which in turn leads to inaccurate prediction. To tackle this issue, we exploit the data assimilation technique to correct the physics-based model coupled with the neural network as a surrogate for unresolved flow dynamics in multiscale systems. In particular, we use a set of neural network architectures to learn the correlation between resolved flow variables and the parametrizations of unresolved flow dynamics and formulate a data assimilation approach to correct the hybrid model during their online deployment. We illustrate our framework in a set of applications of the multiscale Lorenz 96 system for which the parametrization model for unresolved scales is exactly known, and the two-dimensional Kraichnan turbulence system for which the parametrization model for unresolved scales is not known a priori. Our analysis, therefore, comprises a predictive dynamical core empowered by (i) a data-driven closure model for subgrid-scale processes, (ii) a data assimilation approach for forecast error correction, and (iii) both data-driven closure and data assimilation procedures. We show significant improvement in the long-term prediction of the underlying chaotic dynamics with our framework compared to using only neural network parametrizations for future prediction. Moreover, we demonstrate that these data-driven parametrization models can handle the non-Gaussian statistics of subgrid-scale processes, and effectively improve the accuracy of outer data assimilation workflow loops in a modular nonintrusive way.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Deep learning-assisted modeling for χ (2) nonlinear optics

Modeling second-order (χ(2)) nonlinear optical processes remains computationally expensive due to the need to resolve fast field oscillations and simulate wave propagation using methods such as the split-step Fourier method (SSFM). This can become a bottleneck in real-time applications, such as high-repetition-rate laser systems requiring rapid feedback and control. We present a long short-term memory-based surrogate model trained on SSFM simulations generated from a start-to-end model of the photocathode drive laser at SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory’s Linac Coherent Light Source II. The model achieves over 250× speedup while maintaining high fidelity, enabling future real-time optimization and laying the foundation for data-integrated modeling frameworks and digital twins of laser systems.

Accelerator Physics (physics.acc-ph)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Predicting Deformation of Parts from HP Printers due to Sintering with Modeling and Simulation (CRADA NFE-18-07363)

This work proposes to leverage Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s (ORNL) sintering simulation software developed at the Manufacturing Demonstration Facility to 1) investigate the deformation of sintered parts and 2) to develop fast surrogate-based optimization methods for HP Inc. This includes the development of ORNL’s software on HP systems, integration and testing with HP part geometries and material properties, the development of surrogate models based on the results of the simulation, and modifications to the software based on feedback from HP. The expected impacts of this work are a drastic reduction in print costs, an increase in printer throughput, and the identification of novel, possibly exotic materials for 3D printing. This work will also decrease the time to market for HP’s print technology by decreasing the amount of resources and type dedicated to physical testing.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data-Driven Modeling and Correction of Vehicle Dynamics

We develop a data-driven framework for learning and correcting nonautonomous vehicle dynamics. Physics-based vehicle models are often simplified for tractability and therefore exhibit inherent model-form uncertainty, motivating the need for data-driven correction. Moreover, nonautonomous dynamics are governed by time-dependent control inputs, which pose challenges in learning predictive models directly from temporal snapshot data. To address these, we reformulate the vehicle dynamics via a local parameterization of the time-dependent inputs, yielding a modified system composed ofa sequence of local parametric dynamical systems. Here, we approximate these parametric systems using two complementary approaches. First, we employ the dimension reduction and interpolation in parameter space (DRIPS) methodology to construct efficient linear surrogate models, equipped with lifted observable spaces and manifold-based operator interpolation. This enables data-efficient learning of vehicle models whose dynamics admit accurate linear representations in the lifted spaces. Second, for more strongly nonlinear systems, we employ flow map learning (FML), a deep neural network (DNN) approach that approximates the parametric evolution map without requiring special treatment of nonlinearities. We further extend FML with a transfer-learning-based model correction procedure, enabling the correction of misspecified prior models using only a sparse set of high-fidelity or experimental measurements, without assuming a prescribed form for the correction term. Through a suite of numerical experiments on unicycle, simplified bicycle, and slip-based bicycle models, we demonstrate that DRIPS offers robust and highly data-efficient learning of nonautonomous vehicle dynamics, while FML provides expressive nonlinear modeling and effective correction of model-form errors under severe data scarcity.

data-driven modeling↗
DOE OSTI2021

Advancing Sea Ice Predictability in E3SM with Machine Learning

Focal area(s): To improve predictions of sea ice in E3SM we propose to develop a hierarchy of data-driven models using observational and simulation data to investigate the most important Earth system drivers of sea ice variability and loss, develop surrogates that build on the reduced parameter space of important drivers, and, where appropriate, couple machine learning models with standard PDE models to capture important physical behavior at different scales. This work falls under Focal Area 2. Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Neural message-passing for objective-based uncertainty quantification and optimal experimental design

Various real-world scientific applications involve the mathematical modeling of complex uncertain systems with numerous unknown parameters. Accurate parameter estimation is often practically infeasible in such systems, as the available training data may be insufficient and the cost of acquiring additional data may be high. In such cases, based on a Bayesian paradigm, we can design robust operators retaining the best overall performance across all possible models and design optimal experiments that can effectively reduce uncertainty to enhance the performance of such operators maximally. While objective-based uncertainty quantification (objective-UQ) based on MOCU (mean objective cost of uncertainty) provides an effective means for quantifying uncertainty in complex systems, the high computational cost of estimating MOCU has been a challenge in applying it to real-world scientific/engineering problems. In this work, we propose a novel scheme to reduce the computational cost for objective-UQ via MOCU based on a data-driven approach. We adopt a neural message-passing model for surrogate modeling, incorporating a novel axiomatic constraint loss that penalizes an increase in the estimated system uncertainty. As an illustrative example, we consider the optimal experimental design (OED) problem for uncertain Kuramoto models, where the goal is to predict the experiments that can most effectively enhance robust synchronization performance through uncertainty reduction. We show that our proposed approach can accelerate MOCU-based OED by four to five orders of magnitude, without any visible performance loss compared to the state-of-the-art. The proposed approach applies to general OED tasks, beyond the Kuramoto model.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Real-time estimation of the electron temperature profile in DIII-D by leveraging neural-network surrogate models

Control of both the magnitude and the shape of tokamak profiles will be necessary to achieve stable, high-performance plasmas. In order to reject disturbances in real time, feedback-control algorithms rely on accurate real-time knowledge of the plasma state. When diagnostics alone are insufficient, either because they are limited in number or their measurements are too noisy, observers can be used to combine diagnostic data with a response model to provide a better estimation of different plasma properties. An observer has been developed to estimate the electron temperature profile in real time using both diagnostic data from the Thomson scattering system and a model based on the electron heat transport equation describing the evolution of the electron temperature profile. Here, neural network surrogate models are leveraged to help improve the overall model prediction while staying within computation time constraints for real-time use. The observer algorithm is shown in offline tests to produce smooth profiles that are consistent with both the diagnostic data and the electron heat transport equation. When implemented into the real-time plasma control system, this observer will provide valuable information on the electron temperature profile to many potential feedback-control applications.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine learning-based surrogate models and transfer learning for derivative free optimization of HT-PEM fuel cells

Widespread adoption of high-temperature polymer electrolyte membrane electrochemical systems, such as fuel cells (HT-PEMFCs), requires models and computational tools for accurate optimization and guiding new materials for enhancing performance and durability. In this contribution, knowledge-based modelling and data-driven modelling are combined using Few-Shot Learning and implementing an Automated Machine Learning framework for the generation of Machine Learning-based surrogate models. Applicability of the resulting model for derivative-free optimization is demonstrated. Additionally, a way of considering extrapolation in the optimization task is presented. Results show that although extrapolation is needed to achieve better solutions during optimization, it can be monitored and managed. As a result, tuning the electrode ionomer binder's properties, such as ionic conductivity, in the fuel cell represents a promising pathway for improving HT-PEMFC performance.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2021

Deep Reinforcement Learning Enabled Physical-Model-Free Two-Timescale Voltage Control Method for Active Distribution Systems

Active distribution networks are being challenged by frequent and rapid voltage violations due to renewable energy integration. Conventional model-based voltage control methods rely on accurate parameters of the distribution networks, which are difficult to achieve in practice. This paper proposes a novel physical-model-free two-timescale voltage control framework for active distribution systems. To achieve fast control of PV inverters, the whole network is first partitioned into several subnetworks using voltage-reactive power sensitivity. Then, the scheduling of PV inverters in the multiple sub-networks is formulated as Markov games and solved by a multi-agent soft actor-critic (MASAC) algorithm, where each subnetwork is modeled as an intelligent agent. All agents are trained in a centralized manner to learn a coordinated strategy while being executed based on only local information for fast response. For the slower time-scale control, OLTCs and switched capacitors are coordinated by a single agent-based SAC algorithm using the global information with considering control behaviors of the inverters. Particularly, the two-level agents are trained concurrently with information exchange according to the reward signal calculated from the data-driven surrogate model. Comparative tests with different benchmark methods on IEEE 33-and 123-bus systems and 342-node low voltage distribution system demonstrate that the proposed method can effectively mitigate the fast voltage violations and achieve systematical coordination of different voltage regulation assets without the knowledge of accurate system model.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Expanding the representation of aerosol, cloud, and precipitation processes with graph network-based simulators

We explored a novel framework for simulating the small-scale processes that drive the evolution of aerosol, cloud, and precipitation particles, which are a critical gap in the predictive understanding of weather and climate. Particle-based methods have emerged as an effective tool for modeling aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions, but existing particle-based models are computationally too expensive to simulate the large domains relevant for the atmosphere or to represent the full suite of relevant processes. The lack of a comprehensive and efficient reference model is a critical bottleneck in our understanding of cloud and precipitation processes and our ability to parameterize these processes for regional- and global-scale simulations. To address this need, we explored an approach to accelerate and expand particle-based models using a new machine learning approach, graph network-based simulators (GNS). Rather than modeling the evolution of the system by numerically integrating continuity equations, the GNS represents dynamics through learned message passing. Our aim was to develop fast and accurate surrogate models for particle-based simulations. We explored applying GNS to simulate cloud droplet transport, growth, and evaporation under turbulent conditions, but we found the GNS over-smoothed the simulations. We then applied the GNS to simulate aerosol dynamics through gas condensation and found the GNS was able to reproduce the benchmark, physics-based simulation with high accuracy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Efficient data-driven regression for reduced-order modeling of spatial pattern formation

We present an efficient data-driven regression approach for constructing reduced-order models (ROMs) of reaction-diffusion systems exhibiting pattern formation. The ROMs are learned non-intrusively from available training data of physically accurate numerical simulations. The method can be applied to general nonlinear systems through the use of polynomial model form, while not requiring knowledge of the underlying physical model, governing equations, or numerical solvers. The process of learning ROMs is posed as a low-cost least-squares problem in a reduced-order subspace identified via Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD). Numerical experiments on classical pattern-forming systems–including the Schnakenberg and Mimura–Tsujikawa models–demonstrate that higher-order surrogate models significantly improve prediction accuracy while maintaining low computational cost. The proposed method provides a flexible, non-intrusive model reduction framework, well suited for the analysis of complex spatio-temporal pattern formation phenomena.

Data-driven modeling↗
DOE OSTI2023

Optimization of Operating Profit for the FEED of the PZAS Process for CO 2 Capture on a 460 MW NGCC

A rating model of PZAS (Piperazine with the Advanced Stripper) for a 460 MW natural gas combined cycle was developed from vendor-provided equipment performance data. Surrogate rating models were built and used to optimize variable profit of the system subject to natural gas and electricity price at a fixed value for CO 2 of $\$80$/tonne. Several process constraints were considered between ambient temperatures of 4.4 and 40.5 °C. Lower lean loading resulted in lower reboiler heat duty of about 2.2 GJ/tonne. Lean loading at 0.2 mol/equiv N was sufficient at an ambient temperature of 4.4 °C to maximize variable profit. Solvent precipitation was avoided even at low lean loading (0.18 mol/mol) in the absence of a trim cooler for the lean solvent between the absorber and the cold cross exchanger. Optimal CO 2 removal was always higher than the design case removal of 90% and achieved a peak of 93.6% for 4.4 ºC ambient temperature. Lean solvent rate was a significant driver of profitability. The maximum capacity of the compressor was a significant constraint on profitability. Increasing compressor capacity by 20–30% could increase variable profit by about 21% in the case of 0.18 lean loading at 4.4 °C ambient temperature. Furthermore, this increase in profit was lower at higher ambient temperature and higher lean loading. The breakeven gas price was $\$4.6$/MMBtu at high lean loading of 0.22 mol/mol. Below this value, profit was maximized by increasing the boiler heat rate. Above this value, profit could not be increased by burning additional natural gas, requiring a reduction in boiler heat rate and consequently, specific heat duty. At lower lean loading (0.2, 0.18 mol/mol), this transition in heat duty was not observed due to the lower heat duty. As the ambient temperature increased, a similar trend in heat duty was observed at 0.22 lean loading, but the transition to lower heat duty occurred earlier at $\$4$/MMBtu. This was because of the lower CO 2 production at higher ambient temperature, making the process unprofitable at a gas price higher than $\$3$/MMBtu unless the heat duty of the stripper and natural gas boiler is steeply decreased.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Equation‐Free Surrogate Modeling of Geophysical Flows at the Intersection of Machine Learning and Data Assimilation

Abstract There is a growing interest in developing data‐driven reduced‐order models for atmospheric and oceanic flows that are trained on data obtained either from high‐resolution simulations or satellite observations. The data‐driven models are non‐intrusive in nature and offer significant computational savings compared to large‐scale numerical models. These low‐dimensional models can be utilized to reduce the computational burden of generating forecasts and estimating model uncertainty without losing the key information needed for data assimilation (DA) to produce accurate state estimates. This paper aims at exploring an equation‐free surrogate modeling approach at the intersection of machine learning and DA in Earth system modeling. With this objective, we introduce an end‐to‐end non‐intrusive reduced‐order modeling (NIROM) framework equipped with contributions in modal decomposition, time series prediction, optimal sensor placement, and sequential DA. Specifically, we use proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) to identify the dominant structures of the flow, and a long short‐term memory network to model the dynamics of the POD modes. The NIROM is integrated within the deterministic ensemble Kalman filter (DEnKF) to incorporate sparse and noisy observations at optimal sensor locations obtained through QR pivoting. The feasibility and the benefit of the proposed framework are demonstrated for the NOAA Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature (SST) V2 data set. Our results indicate that the NIROM is stable for long‐term forecasting and can model dynamics of SST with a reasonable level of accuracy. Furthermore, the prediction accuracy of the NIROM gets improved by almost one order of magnitude by the DEnKF algorithm.

Pawar, Suraj↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sulfur TES ML [SWR-23-02]

Sulfur TES ML contains code originally created to develop surrogate ML models to mimic the utility of CFD simulations of Sulfur TES systems. It has been adapted to provide a comprehensive package for building, training, validating, testing, and optimizing regression models with customizable features and targets.

Menear, Kevin↗
DOE OSTI2025

Automated RF Phase Adjustment for Beam Stabilization in the Fermilab Linac

The Fermilab Linac experiences longitudinal beam phase drift, leading to increased particle loss, conventionally corrected through labor-intensive manual RF adjustments. This project explores machine learning-based automation for drift correction, employing a prototype-based classification approach. Our model utilizes a 34-dimensional feature set (RF settings and BPM readings) and leverages a 7x27 response matrix for system modeling. To overcome limited real-world data, we generate synthetic data, enhancing model training and generalizability. Custom loss functions, including a surrogate energy-consistent loss and a temporal smoothness constraint, ensure physically plausible drift predictions. The goal is a robust system for autonomous phase adjustments, ensuring stable beam acceleration and reduced manual intervention.

Chichili, R. R. [Illinois U., Chicago]↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enhancing Lattice Kinetic Schemes for Fluid Dynamics with Lattice-Equivariant Neural Networks

A new class of equivariant neural networks is presented, hereby dubbed lattice-equivariant neural networks (LENNs), designed to satisfy local symmetries of a lattice structure. The approach develops within a recently introduced framework aimed at learning neural network-based surrogate models’ lattice Boltzmann collision operators. Whenever neural networks are employed to model physical systems, respecting symmetries and equivariance properties has been shown to be key for accuracy, numerical stability, and performance. Here, hinging on ideas from group representation theory, trainable layers are defined whose algebraic structure is equivariant with respect to the symmetries of the lattice cell. In this work, the presented method naturally allows for efficient implementations, in terms of both memory usage and computational costs, supporting scalable training/testing for lattices in two spatial dimensions and higher (in which the size of symmetry group grows). The approach is validated and tested considering 2D and 3D flowing dynamics, both in laminar and turbulent regimes. It is compared with group-averaged-based symmetric networks and with plain, nonsymmetric, networks, showing how the presented approach unlocks the (a posteriori) accuracy and training stability of the former models and the train/inference speed of the latter networks. (LENNs are about one order of magnitude faster than group-averaged networks in 3D.) The work in this paper opens toward practical use of machine learning-augmented lattice Boltzmann CFD in real-world simulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Development and assessment of a reactor system prognosis model with physics-guided machine learning

Autonomous control systems provide recommendations to help operators in decision-making during plant operations ranging from normal operation to accident management. An important step of autonomous control is prognosis. In nuclear engineering domain, prognosis is the process of predicting future conditions of a system or equipment based on present signs and symptoms of a fault. The prognosis model allows predicting future reactor states for possible candidate control strategies so that the outcomes can be evaluated to determine the best control strategy. The prognosis model requires representing direct relationships between the symptoms and the predictions. In nuclear engineering, computational simulations are approximate representations of the operation of the real system. However, prognosis with computational simulations requires high computation power and time due to possible large number of scenarios. Necessary computation resources can be reduced with machine learning (ML) approach for fast predictions by building a surrogate function using the simulation data. A critical issue is, ML models are ignorant of physical knowledge, and these models approximate statistical relationships between the system variables. This ignorance can produce results that are inconsistent with physical laws, even if an optimal result is achieved from a mathematical point of view. Physics-guided machine learning (PGML) is an approach to tackle this issue. Here, this work formulates and illustrates a framework to guide development and assessment of the ML-based prognosis model for autonomous control systems. The development of the prognosis model considers the training of a ML model which consists of optimizing many aspects of the ML approach. The assessment of the prognosis model considers training data limitations and uncertainties of the ML approach. Prognosis models with standalone ML and PGML are developed and assessed on the loss-of-flow scenario of Experimental Breeder Reactor II. The results indicate that PGML based prognosis model has the best performance compared to other prognosis models.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗