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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

A new process-based and scale-aware desert dust emission scheme for global climate models – Part I: Description and evaluation against inverse modeling emissions

Desert dust accounts for most of the atmosphere's aerosol burden by mass and produces numerous important impacts on the Earth system. However, current global climate models (GCMs) and land-surface models (LSMs) struggle to accurately represent key dust emission processes, in part because of inadequate representations of soil particle sizes that affect the dust emission threshold, surface roughness elements that absorb wind momentum, and boundary-layer characteristics that control wind fluctuations. Furthermore, because dust emission is driven by small-scale (~ 1 km or smaller) processes, simulating the global cycle of desert dust in GCMs with coarse horizontal resolutions (~ 100 km) presents a fundamental challenge. This representation problem is exacerbated by dust emission fluxes scaling nonlinearly with wind speed above a threshold wind speed that is sensitive to land-surface characteristics. Here, we address these fundamental problems underlying the simulation of dust emissions in GCMs and LSMs by developing improved descriptions of (1) the effect of soil texture on the dust emission threshold, (2) the effects of nonerodible roughness elements (both rocks and green vegetation) on the surface wind stress, and (3) the effects of boundary-layer turbulence on driving intermittent dust emissions. We then use the resulting revised dust emission parameterization to simulate global dust emissions in a standalone model forced by reanalysis meteorology and land-surface fields. We further propose (4) a simple methodology to rescale lower-resolution dust emission simulations to match the spatial variability of higher-resolution emission simulations in GCMs. The resulting dust emission simulation shows substantially improved agreement against regional dust emissions observationally constrained by inverse modeling. We thus find that our revised dust emission parameterization can substantially improve dust emission simulations in GCMs and LSMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessment of Potential Dose and Environmental Impacts from Proposed Testing at the INL National Security Test Range

This assessment uses screening level models to calculate potential environmental impacts from proposed tests at two locations at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) National Security Test Range (NSTR) site. Proposed tests could be conducted using 11 different radioactive material types that include K 2 O, LaBr 3 , KBr, Cu, Zr, F, Ga, Ga 2 O 3 , NaNO 2 , Ga-68, and Tc-99m. The tests could potentially release radioactive material to the atmosphere and radionuclides and other contaminants to the soil, which could leach into the unsaturated zone and migrate to the aquifer. Atmospheric transport of radionuclides to potential human receptors and time-integrated air concentrations were calculated with a Gaussian plume model and three years of hourly meteorological data. Potential surface soil impacts were calculated with the computer program Mixing-Cell Model (MCM). Groundwater impacts were calculated with the computer programs MCM and GWSCREEN. Radiological doses from potential atmospheric releases were calculated for public receptors off the INL Site and for workers at nearby INL facilities. Results were compared to regulatory dose limits. Maximum potential groundwater concentrations were estimated in the aquifer below the NSTR site and compared to drinking water standards or risk-based screening levels for resident tap water. Soil concentrations were calculated and compared to risk-based screening levels for workers and potential future residents. All impacts were estimated based on the assumption that 12 tests are conducted annually using all 11 material types for 15 years. This document provides the resources to enable a subject matter expert in the field of environmental assessments to replicate the modeling and calculations. The methodology and parameters are presented in the text. All electronic files, including computer code input, output, executable files, batch files, scripts, and spreadsheet files, are contained in a zip file that can be accessed by selecting “Additional Information” (select Native File) in the INL Electronic Document Management System (EDMS).

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2024

ARM Aerial Facility (AAF) Merged Value-Added Product Report for Historical G-1 Field Campaigns

For 30 years, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science supported an instrumented Grumman Gulfstream-1 (G-1) aircraft for atmospheric field campaigns. Data from the final decade of G-1 operations were archived by the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility Data Center (ADC) and made publicly available at no cost to all registered users. To ensure a consistent data format and to improve the accessibility of the ARM airborne data, an integrated data set was recently developed covering the final six years of G-1 operations (2013 to 2018). The integrated data set includes data collected from 236 flights (766.4 hours). Four of the seven field campaigns were based in the U.S. One campaign collected data from the wildfires in the U.S. Pacific Northwest and agricultural burns in the lower Mississippi River valley as part of the Biomass Burning Observation Project (BBOP) in 2013. In 2015, the ARM Cloud Aerosol Precipitation Experiment provided data on atmospheric rivers and associated aerosol-cloud interactions that produce heavy precipitation on the U.S. west coast during the early spring. Research data from Airborne Carbon Measurements-V (ACME-V), collected during the summer of 2015, gave scientists insight into trends and variability of trace gases in the atmosphere over the North Slope of Alaska to improve arctic climate models. In the early summer and autumn of 2016, the Holistic Interactions of Shallow Clouds, Aerosols, and Land-Ecosystems (HI-SCALE) campaign provided an extensive data set geared toward coupled processes that affect the life cycle of shallow clouds through the interaction among aerosol, cloud, land surface, and ecosystems. In 2014 (March and October), the airborne sampling moved outside of the U.S. to the city of Manaus in central Amazonia, Brazil, where residential and industrial emissions were extensively characterized by flights of the G-1. The GoAmazon2014/15 aircraft campaign data are being integrated with aquatic and terrestrial ecosystem measurements to quantify anthropogenic perturbations to a usually pristine tropical environment. Another international airborne mission was carried out in the Eastern North Atlantic region. The Aerosol and Cloud Experiments in the Eastern North Atlantic (ACE-ENA) campaign saw the G-1 aircraft fly from Terceira Island in the Azores during the summer of 2017 and the winter of 2018. The campaign studied both seasons to measure key aerosol and cloud processes under various meteorological and cloud conditions with different aerosol sources. Then the G-1 deployed to the Sierras de Córdoba range in central Argentina from October to November 2018 for the Cloud, Aerosol, and Complex Terrain Interactions (CACTI) campaign to study orographic convective cloud interactions with their surrounding environment. These comprehensive datastreams provide much-needed insight into spatiotemporal variability of thermodynamic quantities, aerosol and cloud states, and properties for addressing essential science questions in Earth system process studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

ARM Aerial Facility (AAF) Merged Value-Added Product Report for Historical G-1 Field Campaigns

For 30 years, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science supported an instrumented Grumman Gulfstream-1 (G-1) aircraft for atmospheric field campaigns. Data from the final decade of G-1 operations were archived by the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility Data Center (ADC) and made publicly available at no cost to all registered users. To ensure a consistent data format and to improve the accessibility of the ARM airborne data, an integrated data set was recently developed covering the final six years of G-1 operations (2013 to 2018). The integrated data set includes data collected from 236 flights (766.4 hours). Four of the seven field campaigns were based in the U.S. One campaign collected data from the wildfires in the U.S. Pacific Northwest and agricultural burns in the lower Mississippi River valley as part of the Biomass Burning Observation Project (BBOP) in 2013. In 2015, the ARM Cloud Aerosol Precipitation Experiment provided data on atmospheric rivers and associated aerosol-cloud interactions that produce heavy precipitation on the U.S. west coast during the early spring. Research data from Airborne Carbon Measurements-V (ACME-V), collected during the summer of 2015, gave scientists insight into trends and variability of trace gases in the atmosphere over the North Slope of Alaska to improve arctic climate models. In the early summer and autumn of 2016, the Holistic Interactions of Shallow Clouds, Aerosols, and Land-Ecosystems (HI-SCALE) campaign provided an extensive data set geared toward coupled processes that affect the life cycle of shallow clouds through the interaction among aerosol, cloud, land surface, and ecosystems. In 2014 (March and October), the airborne sampling moved outside of the U.S. to the city of Manaus in central Amazonia, Brazil, where residential and industrial emissions were extensively characterized by flights of the G-1. The GoAmazon2014/15 aircraft campaign data are being integrated with aquatic and terrestrial ecosystem measurements to quantify anthropogenic perturbations to a usually pristine tropical environment. Another international airborne mission was carried out in the Eastern North Atlantic region. The Aerosol and Cloud Experiments in the Eastern North Atlantic (ACE-ENA) campaign saw the G-1 aircraft fly from Terceira Island in the Azores during the summer of 2017 and the winter of 2018. The campaign studied both seasons to measure key aerosol and cloud processes under various meteorological and cloud conditions with different aerosol sources. Then the G-1 deployed to the Sierras de Córdoba range in central Argentina from October to November 2018 for the Cloud, Aerosol, and Complex Terrain Interactions (CACTI) campaign to study orographic convective cloud interactions with their surrounding environment. These comprehensive datastreams provide much-needed insight into spatiotemporal variability of thermodynamic quantities, aerosol and cloud states, and properties for addressing essential science questions in Earth system process studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessment of Potential Dose and Environmental Impacts from Proposed Testing at the INL Radiological Response Training Range

This assessment uses screening level models to calculate potential environmental impacts from proposed tests at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Radiological Response Training Range (RRTR) site. Proposed tests could be conducted using 11 different radioactive material types that include K 2 O, LaBr 3 , KBr, Cu, Zr, F, Ga, Ga 2 O 3 , NaNO 2 , Ga-68, and Tc-99m. The tests could potentially release radioactive material to the atmosphere and radionuclides and other contaminants to the soil, which could leach into the unsaturated zone and migrate to the aquifer. Atmospheric transport of radionuclides to potential human receptors and time-integrated air concentrations were calculated with a Gaussian plume model and three years of hourly meteorological data. Potential surface-soil impacts were calculated with the computer program Mixing-Cell Model (MCM). Groundwater impacts were calculated with the computer programs MCM and GWSCREEN. Radiological doses from potential atmospheric releases were calculated for public receptors off the INL Site and for workers at nearby INL facilities. Results were compared to regulatory dose limits. Maximum potential groundwater concentrations were estimated in the aquifer below the NSTR site and compared to drinking water standards or risk-based screening levels for resident tap water. Soil concentrations were calculated and compared to risk-based screening levels for workers and potential future residents. All impacts were estimated based on the assumption that 12 tests are conducted annually using all 11 material types for a period of 15 years. This document provides the resources to enable a subject matter expert in the field of environmental assessments to replicate the modeling and calculations. The methodology and parameters are presented in the text. All electronic files, including computer code input, output, executable files, batch files, scripts, and spreadsheet files are contained in a zip file that can be accessed by selecting “Additional Information” (select Native File) in the INL Electronic Document Management System (EDMS).

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hydrologic response of artificially drained agricultural watersheds: insights from high-resolution integrated surface/subsurface simulations

Artificial drainage systems comprising subsurface networks of perforated pipes (tile drains) and engineered surface ditches are widely used to remove excess water from poorly drained agricultural regions. Artificial drainage lowers the water table by design but also has inadvertent effects on the watershed-scale hydrologic response with important implications for flood risk and nutrient exports. We investigated the effects of tile drains on watershed-scale hydrologic response in the Portage River, OH, Watershed using a high-resolution physically based integrated surface/subsurface hydrology model with recently developed capabilities to represent artificial drainage. Tile drains were found to enhance streamflow during times of low flow, generally consistent with previous studies. Streamflow flashiness was found to have a non-monotonic dependence on tile spacing with a minimum at intermediate spacings (∼50 m). Flashiness and the event hydrographs for small tile spacing were similar to the situation with no tiles, but flow paths from farm to stream were very different for those two end member cases, emphasizing the limitations of the stream hydrograph in characterizing hydrologic response. For typical tile spacings, peak flow can either be enhanced or attenuated by the presence of tiles, depending on the size of the event and the antecedent meteorological conditions. Tiles enhance peak flow when the event is below a threshold of ∼25 mm or when events arrive in dry conditions. Peak flow is reduced by tiles when events are large and arrive in conditions that are not overly dry. The dependence on event size and antecedent conditions is explained by differences in available storage and flow paths to the streams. These results provide additional insights into how tile drainage modulates event-scale hydrologic response, an important control on flood generation mechanisms and nutrient exports.

agricultural watershed↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying the long-term changes of terrestrial water storage and their driving factors

Global warming is expected to cause changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS) across the land surface, with widespread impacts on ecosystems and society. Although extensive research has been performed to analyze TWS changes and possible drivers during the post-2000 period, longer-term evolution of TWS and associated environmental forcings remain relatively unexplored. In this study, we evaluated the performance of the Energy Exascale Earth System model (E3SM) land model ELM version 1 (ELM v1) in simulating global TWS, and used factorial simulations of ELMv1 to quantify global TWS changes and their drivers during 1948–2012. We found that ELM’s agreed best with existing satellites and reconstruction datasets in temperate regions unaffected by irrigation. Biome- and climate zone-averaged TWS mainly increased at rates between 0 and 10 mm/year over 1948–2012, but the second half of that period saw smaller positive trends than the first half or even negative trends. Climate change explained >80 % of the TWS trends across most biomes and climate zones, followed by land use and land cover change. The physiological and phenological effects of CO2 primarily induced noticeable TWS trends in the more humid biomes and climate zones across different latitudes. In contrast, nitrogen deposition and aerosol deposition generally had smaller and negative impacts across the biomes and climate regions. Among the meteorological drivers analyzed, the long-term average imbalance between precipitation (P), evapotranspiration (E), and runoff (Q) contributed >50 % of the TWS trends in most biomes and climate zones, with nonlinearity being induced by spatially heterogenous changes in E/P and Q/P ratios. The accumulated detrended anomalies in P, E, and Q also often contributed substantially, while the trends difference between P, E, and Q contributed little. Together, these findings unveiled an intensification of the global TWS and its diverse patterns of climate change and different non-withdrawal human-induced alterations, contributing to a more comprehensive understanding and projection of the global water cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Elastic deformation as a tool to investigate watershed storage connectivity

Storage-discharge relationships and dynamic changes in storage connectivity remain key unknowns in understanding and predicting watershed behavior. In this study, we use Global Positioning System measurements of load-induced Earth surface displacement as a proxy for total water storage change in four climatologically diverse mountain watersheds in the western United States. Comparing total water storage estimates with stream-connected storage derived from hydrograph analysis, we find that each of the investigated watersheds exhibits a characteristic seasonal pattern of connection and disconnection between total and stream-connected storage. We investigate how the degree and timing of watershed-scale connectivity is related to the timing of precipitation and seasonal changes in dominant hydrologic processes. Our results show that elastic deformation of the Earth due to water loading is a powerful new tool for elucidating dynamic storage connectivity and watershed discharge response across scales in space and time.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2020

Observational Study of the Thermodynamics and Morphological Characteristics of a Midlatitude Continental Cold Pool Event

Abstract Convectively generated cold pools are important to the Earth system as they exert strong controls on deep convective-storm initiation, intensity, and life cycle. Despite their importance, efforts to introduce such cold pool controls into weather and climate models lack guidance and/or physical constraints from cold pool observations. This work presents a detailed, purely observational analysis of a cold pool event that took place on 23–24 May 2011 in north-central Oklahoma. The characteristics of the cold pool, and the spatiotemporal evolution of the hydrometeors and dynamics in the proximity of the cold pool, are studied with high-resolution observations. The unprecedented dataset used in this work to study cold pool characteristics includes an enhanced network of surface weather stations, a high-temporal-frequency sounding array, and the NEXRAD and Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains radar networks. The potential use of NEXRAD surveillance scans to estimate height and propagation speed of the leading edge of the cold pool (LECP) is presented in this work. Manual identification and tracking of the LECP from NEXRAD imagery shows a spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the LECP properties. Surprisingly, over its detected life cycle, the LECP speed remains almost constant, even though the strength of the cold pool diminishes in time and its height varies. Radar analysis shows that pulses of graupel and hail within downdrafts in the convective system generating the cold pool appeared to be related to temporary increases in the LECP height.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Downscaled precipitation and mean air temperature datasets; East-Taylor subbasin; 2008-2019; daily temporal resolution; 400 m spatial resolution

This dataset provides gridded meteorological forcing data (specifically, daily precipitation and daily mean air temperature). The dataset has been generated by downscaling the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) dataset from a spatial resolution of 800 m to 400 m. The time period is 2008-2019, and the mapped area is East Taylor subbasin in Upper Colorado. The data are in the form of NetCDF files, arranged by year. Compared to the PRISM dataset, the dates of the downscaled dataset are shifted backwards by one (e.g., downscaled data for May 25 corresponds to PRISM data for May 26). This temporal shifting makes the meteorological forcing correspond more closely to the prescribed date. The NetCDF format is a standard raster format that can be read using any Geographic Information System (GIS) software; plenty of modules exist in popular scripting languages (such as Python, R and Matlab) that can also be used to read NetCDF files.East_Taylor_Tavg_PRISM400 corresponds to mean air temperature.East_Taylor_Precip_PRISM400.zip corresponds to precipitation.The proprietary PRISM data (800 m resolution) were purchased with funding from the Watershed Function Scientific Focus Area supported by U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research under award no. DE-AC02-05CH11231.Dataset update on March 9, 2022:Uploaded new data files that are identical to the earlier files but are now in the NetCDF format, arranged by year. Earlier, the files were in the GeoTiff format, arranged by date.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Forced and Unforced Decadal Behavior of the Interhemispheric SST Contrast during the Instrumental Period (1881–2012): Contextualizing the Late 1960s–Early 1970s Shift

The sea surface temperature (SST) contrast between the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH) influences the location of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the intensity of the monsoon systems. This study examines the contributions of external forcing and unforced internal variability to the interhemispheric SST contrast in HadSST3 and ERSSTv5 observations, and 10 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) from 1881 to 2012. Using multimodel mean fingerprints, a significant influence of anthropogenic, but not natural, forcing is detected in the interhemispheric SST contrast, with the observed response larger than that of the model mean in ERSSTv5. The forced response consists of asymmetric NH–SH SST cooling from the mid-twentieth century to around 1980, followed by opposite NH–SH SST warming. The remaining best-estimate residual or unforced component is marked by NH–SH SST maxima in the 1930s and mid-1960s, and a rapid NH–SH SST decrease around 1970. Examination of decadal shifts in the observed interhemispheric SST contrast highlights the shift around 1970 as the most prominent from 1881 to 2012. Both NH and SH SST variability contributed to the shift, which appears not to be attributable to external forcings. Most models examined fail to capture such large-magnitude shifts in their control simulations, although some models with high interhemispheric SST variability are able to produce them. Large-magnitude shifts produced by the control simulations feature disparate spatial SST patterns, some of which are consistent with changes typically associated with the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Representation of the Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves in Modern Reanalysis Products

Abstract This study aims to deepen our understanding of the destabilization mechanisms and the mean-state modulation of the convectively coupled Kelvin waves (CCKWs) while testing simple models for CCKWs. We examine CCKW precipitation, vertical structure, and energetics in four modern reanalyses: the fifth version of ECMWF Reanalysis (ERA5), NASA Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), the second version of the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), and the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55). The CCKW precipitation signal strength in the wavenumber–frequency domain and the geographical distribution of CCKW precipitation variability are reasonably represented in all reanalyses, although they commonly underestimate the amplitude of CCKW precipitation. Despite considerable interreanalysis differences in the vertical structure of temperature and diabatic heating anomalies, the eddy available potential energy (EAPE) generation within the CCKWs is found to be associated with the second baroclinic mode whereas the first baroclinic mode damps CCKW EAPE in three out of four reanalyses. Geographically, strong CCKW activity occurs in the areas of high mean-state sea surface temperature (SST), where the second mode EAPE generation is higher, mainly due to a stronger stratiform heating and a tighter wave–convection coupling. Our results are supportive of the simple models for CCKWs in which CCKWs are destabilized within the second baroclinic mode component.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2025

Rising atmospheric moisture escalates the future impact of atmospheric rivers in the Antarctic climate system

Abstract Despite their relative rarity, atmospheric rivers are key contributors to the surface mass balance of Antarctica. However, the future role of atmospheric rivers in modulating Antarctic sea-level contributions is a major area of uncertainty. Here, we leverage high-resolution climate simulations to show that Antarctic atmospheric rivers are highly sensitive to future increases in atmospheric moisture, leading to a doubling of atmospheric river frequencies and 2.5 × increase in precipitation from 2066–2100 under present-day thresholds for atmospheric river detection. However, future precipitation impacts are critically dependent on the detection threshold: accounting for moisture increases in the threshold produces smaller, regional changes in atmospheric river frequency, primarily resulting from an eastward shift in the polar jet maximum wind speeds. Our results underscore the importance of using large ensembles to quantify Antarctic atmospheric river responses to variability in projected moisture, which may not be captured when using only a few ensemble members.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2024

Decadal Thermal Variability of the Upper Southern Ocean: Zonal Asymmetry

Abstract As the major sink of anthropogenic heat, the Southern Ocean has shown quasi-symmetric, deep-reaching warming since the mid-twentieth century. In comparison, the shorter-term heat storage pattern of the Southern Ocean is more complex and has notable impacts on regional climate and marine ecosystems. By analyzing observational datasets and climate model simulations, this study reveals that the Southern Ocean exhibits prominent decadal (>8 years) variability extending to ∼700-m depth and is characterized by out-of-phase changes in the Pacific and Atlantic–Indian Ocean sectors. Changes in the Pacific sector are larger in magnitude than those in the Atlantic–Indian Ocean sectors and dominate the total heat storage of the Southern Ocean on decadal time scales. Instead of heat uptake through surface heat fluxes, these asymmetric variations arise primarily from wind-driven heat redistribution. Pacemaker and preindustrial simulations of the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) suggest that these variations in Southern Ocean winds arise primarily from natural variability of the tropical Pacific, as represented by the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO). Through atmospheric teleconnection, the positive phase of the IPO gives rise to higher-than-normal sea level pressure and anticyclonic wind anomalies in the 50°–70°S band of the Pacific sector. These winds lead to warming of 0–700 m by driving the convergence of warm water. The opposite processes, involving cyclonic winds and upper-layer divergence, occur in the Atlantic–Indian Ocean sector. These findings aid our understanding of the time-varying heat storage of the Southern Ocean and provide useful implications on initialized decadal climate prediction.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2023

Projections of wildfire risk and activities under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios

Wildfires are important ecosystem processes that have a significant impact on terrestrial vegetation, environment, and climate. This study investigates how future wildfire risk and activities could change under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming scenarios relative to pre-industrial levels using a modified McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDIn) and the CLM4.5-BGC land surface model. Sixteen Earth System Models (ESMs) from CMIP5 and CMIP6 were employed to supply the variables of climate change under low, middle, and high greenhouse emission scenarios in the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C scenarios. The ensemble means from the FFDIn and results from the CLM4.5-BGC with multiple forcings show that the dry areas in the southwestern US, Brazilian Highlands, and Arabian islands are projected to face higher wildfire risk with larger burned areas and more carbon emissions under a warmer climate. The Congo Basin and part of the Amazon could have a lower wildfire risk with smaller burned areas and less carbon emissions. The absolute changes in the projected FFDIn are small, although large increases are observed in boreal areas, particularly in the winter and spring. Burned area and carbon emissions are projected to increase in general in the boreal area but decrease in northeastern Asia. Compared to the 1.5 °C scenario, the wildfire risk and burned area levels are projected to increase under the 2.0 °C scenario except in the western Amazon. However, fire carbon emissions are projected to decrease more in tropical areas under the 2.0 °C scenario. The different change directions in eastern North America and eastern China produced by the FFDIn and CLM4.5-BGC suggest the potential effect of non-meteorological elements on fire activities.

1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming↗
DOE OSTI2025

Search for a Cloud Phase Feedback in the Arctic Climate System

This project was motivated by a hypothesis involving the transition in lower troposphere temperatures across the freezing point of water. Specifically, at temperatures just below to about ten degrees below freezing, Arctic clouds should be in a mixed-phase, with strong influences from secondary ice production (e.g., the Hallett-Mossop process). At temperatures just above freezing, clouds should become entirely deglaciated. We hypothesized that, with multiple years of ARM data, a statistically significant change could be detected in cloud radiative properties and surface radiative fluxes that could be directly attributed to this phase change. Furthermore, in a gradually warming climate, these phase change-related responses in surface radiation would represent a cloud phase feedback as part of Arctic amplification. We designed this research project to coincide with a new ARM Arctic cloud radar product developed by Ed Luke and collaborators at BNL (Luke et al., 2021: PNAS, doi:10.1073/pnas.2021387118) that explicitly contains SIP cloud properties retrieved from radar data. This research project has successfully concluded after analysis of a much larger North Slope of Alaska (NSA) data sample than originally anticipated, and the results are quite different than originally hypothesized.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Greening Future Elevates Flash Drought Risk in Northern Mid‐to‐High Latitudes

Flash droughts have become a growing concern, as they can emerge rapidly and increase the risk of crop failure. Although past studies have investigated the meteorological drivers and future changes of flash drought, why flash drought is more frequent over humid and vegetated regions remains underexplored. This study delves further into the mechanism by which vegetation regulates flash drought and its future change using observations from multiple data sets and large ensemble simulations from three Earth system models. On an interannual timescale, both observations and simulations show robust increases in flash drought frequency and a higher flash-to-sub-seasonal drought ratio during spring or antecedent conditions with dense vegetation, supporting the important role of vegetation in flash drought occurrence, especially in the northern mid-to-high latitudes. In the latter regions, the large ensemble simulations show robust increases in flash drought (e.g., 67% and 46% increases in Eastern U.S. and North Asia in 2050–2100 relative to 1950–2000 under the high emission scenario), where the growing season is lengthening. Although greening might suggest reduced drought stress, it drives precipitation-soil moisture-evapotranspiration decoupling by increasing evapotranspiration partitioning to transpiration. As transpiration can access deep soil water through the plant root system, its increased portion can weaken the constraints of concurrent precipitation on evapotranspiration, thus accelerating soil moisture depletion under high evaporative demand, driving a slow-to-rapid drought transition. How vegetation regulates flash drought by regulating surface moisture budget is supported by observations and simulations. Although warming supports early planting, agriculture may increasingly be threatened by surging flash drought risk.

Drought↗
DOE OSTI2023

The QBO–MJO Connection: A Possible Role for the SST and ENSO

We examine the hypothesis that the observed connection between the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and the strength of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is modulated by the sea surface temperature (SST)—for example, by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). A composite analysis shows that, globally, La Niña SSTs are remarkably similar to those that occur during the easterly phase of the QBO. A maximum covariance analysis suggests that MJO power and SST are strongly linked on both the ENSO time scale and the QBO time scale. We analyze simulations with a modified configuration of version 2 of the Community Earth System Model, with a high top and fine vertical resolution. The model is able to simulate ENSO, the QBO, and the MJO. The ocean-coupled version of the model simulates the QBO, ENSO, and MJO, but does not simulate the observed QBO–MJO connection. When driven with prescribed observed SST anomalies based on composites for QBO east and QBO west (QBOE and QBOW), however, the same atmospheric model produces a modest enhancement of MJO power during QBOE relative to QBOW, as observed. We explore the possibility that the SST anomalies are forced by the QBO itself. Indeed, composite Hovmöller diagrams based on observations show the propagation of QBO zonal wind anomalies all the way from the upper stratosphere to the surface. Also, subsurface ocean temperature composites reveal a similarity between the western Pacific and Indian Ocean subsurface signal between La Niña and QBOE.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗