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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Measurements and Model Improvement: Insight into NWP Model Error Using Doppler Lidar and Other WFIP2 Measurement Systems

Abstract Doppler-lidar wind-profile measurements at three sites were used to evaluate NWP model errors from two versions of NOAA’s 3-km-grid HRRR model, to see whether updates in the latest version 4 reduced errors when compared against the original version 1. Nested (750-m grid) versions of each were also tested to see how grid spacing affected forecast skill. The measurements were part of the field phase of the Second Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP2), an 18-month deployment into central Oregon–Washington, a major wind-energy-producing region. This study focuses on errors in simulating marine intrusions, a summertime, 600–800-m-deep, regional sea-breeze flow found to generate large errors. HRRR errors proved to be complex and site dependent. The most prominent error resulted from a premature drop in modeled marine-intrusion wind speeds after local midnight, when lidar-measured winds of greater than 8 m s −1 persisted through the next morning. These large negative errors were offset at low levels by positive errors due to excessive mixing, complicating the interpretation of model “improvement,” such that the updates to the full-scale versions produced mixed results, sometimes enhancing but sometimes degrading model skill. Nesting consistently improved model performance, with version 1’s nest producing the smallest errors overall. HRRR’s ability to represent the stages of sea-breeze forcing was evaluated using radiation budget, surface-energy balance, and near-surface temperature measurements available during WFIP2. The significant site-to-site differences in model error and the complex nature of these errors mean that field-measurement campaigns having dense arrays of profiling sensors are necessary to properly diagnose and characterize model errors, as part of a systematic approach to NWP model improvement. Significance Statement Dramatic increases in NWP model skill will be required over the coming decades. This paper describes the role of major deployments of accurate profiling sensors in achieving that goal and presents an example from the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Program (WFIP2). Wind-profile data from scanning Doppler lidars were used to evaluate two versions of HRRR, the original and an updated version, and nested versions of each. This study focuses on the ability of updated HRRR versions to improve upon predicting a regional sea-breeze flow, which was found to generate large errors by the original HRRR. Updates to the full-scale HRRR versions produced mixed results, but the finer-mesh versions consistently reduced model errors.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2025

Geographic source attribution of honey by strontium isotope analyses: Latvia and India measurements compared to model predictions in a feasibility study

Strontium isotope ratios ( 87 Sr/ 86 Sr) can be used to determine the geographic origin of agricultural products. Here, in this study, we measured the 87 Sr/ 86 Sr of honey samples from Richland, WA, USA, Latvia, and India, and compared the results to published 87 Sr/ 86 Sr from surrounding areas and values predicted based upon a random forest isoscape model (Bataille et al., 2020). While the 87 Sr/ 86 Sr of the honey samples compared well with previously published data, the model did not accurately predict the 87 Sr/ 86 Sr of the honey samples, demonstrating that further refinement of the model would be beneficial. Because Sr cycling in terrestrial ecosystems is complex, the 87 Sr/ 86 Sr of honey is likely to reflect several sources (e.g., nectar, surface water, dust) and may change over time. In order to accurately predict the 87 Sr/ 86 Sr of honey, models must consider local geology, ecology, and bee behavior. Additional research examining how Sr is incorporated into honey is needed to inform models.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

CHARMM-GUI Nanomaterial Modeler for Modeling and Simulation of Nanomaterial Systems

Molecular modeling and simulation are invaluable tools for nanoscience that predict mechanical, physicochemical, and thermodynamic properties of nanomaterials and provide molecular-level insight into underlying mechanisms. However, building nanomaterial-containing systems remains challenging due to the lack of reliable and integrated cyberinfrastructures. Here we present Nanomaterial Modeler in CHARMM-GUI, a web-based cyberinfrastructure that provides an automated process to generate various nanomaterial models, associated topologies, and configuration files to perform state-of- the-art molecular dynamics simulations using most simulation packages. The nanomaterial models are based on the interface force field, one of the most reliable force fields (FFs). The transferability of nanomaterial models among the simulation programs was assessed by single-point energy calculations, which yielded 0.01% relative absolute energy differences for various surface models and equilibrium nanoparticle shapes. Three widely used Lennard-Jones (LJ) cutoff methods are employed to evaluate the compatibility of nanomaterial models with respect to conventional biomolecular FFs: simple truncation at r = 12 Å (12 cutoff), force-based switching over 10 to 12 Å (10-12 fsw), and LJ particle mesh Ewald with no cutoff (LJPME). The FF parameters with these LJ cutoff methods are extensively validated by reproducing structural, interfacial, and mechanical properties. As a result, we find that the computed density and surface energies are in good agreement with reported experimental results, although the simulation results increase in the following order: 10-12 fsw <12 cutoff < LJPME. Nanomaterials in which LJ interactions are a major component show relatively higher deviations (up to 4% in density and 8% in surface energy differences) compared with the experiment. Nanomaterial Modeler's capability is also demonstrated by generating complex systems of nanomaterial-biomolecule and nanomaterial-polymer interfaces with a combination of existing CHARMM-GUI modules. We hope that Nanomaterial Modeler can be used to carry out innovative nanomaterial modeling and simulations to acquire insight into the structure, dynamics, and underlying mechanisms of complex nanomaterial-containing systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Chemisorption-Driven Roughening of Hydrothermally Grown KTa1–xNbxO3 Nanoparticles

The chemical and physical properties of nanoparticle surfaces have significant effects on their growth processes and the resulting morphology. Hydrothermally grown KNbO3, KTaO3, and KTa1–xNbxO3 were studied to examine the complex relationships between surface composition, phase, chemistry, and energetics and how these may be used to model and thereby control nanoparticle growth mechanisms. Two different composition-dependent growth modes were identified, where one type formed smooth surface facets, while the other resulted in roughened nanoparticle morphologies. Electron microscopy characterization, density functional theory calculations, and mathematical growth models were used to illuminate the role of surface properties and chemisorption on the nanoparticle growth morphology. Surface energy reduction by chemisorption can increase the rate of terrace nucleation, driving the roughening of these lower energy nanoparticle surfaces.

Ly, Tiffany↗
DOE OSTI2021

Improving CLM5.0 Biomass and Carbon Exchange Across the Western United States Using a Data Assimilation System

The Western United States is dominated by natural lands that play a critical role for carbon balance, water quality, and timber reserves. This region is also particularly vulnerable to forest mortality from drought, insect attack, and wildfires, thus requiring constant monitoring to assess ecosystem health. Carbon monitoring techniques are challenged by the complex mountainous terrain, thus there is an opportunity for data assimilation systems that combine land surface models and satellite-derived observations to provide improved carbon monitoring. Here, we use the Data Assimilation Research Testbed to adjust the Community Land Model (CLM5.0) with remotely sensed observations of leaf area and above-ground biomass. The adjusted simulation significantly reduced the above-ground biomass and leaf area, leading to a reduction in both photosynthesis and respiration fluxes. The reduction in the carbon fluxes mostly offset, thus both the adjusted and free simulation projected a weak carbon sink to the land. This result differed from a separate observation-constrained model (FLUXCOM) that projected strong carbon uptake to the land. Simulation diagnostics suggested water limitation had an important influence upon the magnitude and spatial pattern of carbon uptake through photosynthesis. We recommend that additional observations important for water cycling (e.g., snow water equivalent, land surface temperature) be included to improve the veracity of the spatial pattern in carbon uptake. Furthermore, the assimilation system should be enhanced to maximize the number of the simulated state variables that are adjusted, especially those related to the recommended observed quantities including water cycling and soil carbon.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Diffusion‐Based Uncertainty Quantification Method to Advance E3SM Land Model Calibration

Abstract Calibrating land surface models and accurately quantifying their uncertainty are crucial for improving the reliability of simulations of complex environmental processes. This, in turn, advances our predictive understanding of ecosystems and supports climate‐resilient decision‐making. Traditional calibration methods, however, face challenges of high computational costs and difficulties in accurately quantifying parameter uncertainties. To address these issues, we develop a diffusion‐based uncertainty quantification (DBUQ) method. Unlike conventional generative diffusion methods, which are computationally expensive and memory‐intensive, DBUQ innovates by formulating a parameterized generative model and approximates this model through supervised learning, which enables quick generation of parameter posterior samples to quantify its uncertainty. DBUQ is effective, efficient, and general‐purpose, making it suitable for site‐specific ecosystem model calibration and broadly applicable for parameter uncertainty quantification across various earth system models. In this study, we applied DBUQ to calibrate the Energy Exascale Earth System Model land model at the Missouri Ozark AmeriFlux forest site. Results indicated that DBUQ produced accurate parameter posterior distributions similar to those from Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling but with 30 times less computing time. This significant improvement in efficiency suggests that DBUQ can enable rapid, site‐level model calibration at a global scale, enhancing our predictive understanding of climate impacts on terrestrial ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Validating sequential Monte Carlo for gravitational-wave inference

Nested sampling (NS) is the preferred stochastic sampling algorithm for gravitational-wave inference for compact binary coalescences. It can handle the complex nature of the gravitational-wave likelihood surface and provides an estimate of the Bayesian model evidence. However, there is another class of algorithms that meets the same requirements, but has not been used for gravitational-wave analyses: sequential Monte Carlo (SMC), an extension of importance sampling that maps samples from an initial density to a target density via a series of intermediate densities. In this work, we validate a type of SMC algorithm, called persistent sampling (PS), for gravitational-wave inference. We consider a range of different scenarios including binary black holes and binary neutron stars and real and simulated data and show that PS produces results that are consistent with NS whilst being, on average, 2 times more efficient and 2.74 times faster. This demonstrates that PS is a viable alternative to NS that should be considered for future gravitational-wave analyses.

black hole mergers↗
DOE OSTI2020

Impact of Lateral Groundwater Flow and Subsurface Lower Boundary Conditions on Atmospheric Boundary Layer Development over Complex Terrain

Credible soil moisture redistribution schemes are essential to meteorological models, as lower boundary moisture influences the balance of surface turbulent fluxes and atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) development. While land surface models (LSMs) have vastly improved in their hydrologic representation, several commonly held assumptions, such as free-draining lower boundary, one-dimensional moisture flux, and lack of groundwater representation, can bias the terrestrial water balance. This study explores the impact of LSM hydrology representation on ABL development in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) meteorological model. The results of summertime WRF simulations with Noah LSM, characterized by 2-m-thick soil and one-dimensional flow, are shown for a domain in the Colorado Rocky Mountain headwaters region. A reference WRF simulation is compared to 1) the same model with soil moisture initialized by the hydrologic model ParFlow; 2) a deep, free-draining simulation; and 3) WRF coupled to ParFlow, a three-dimensional, integrated groundwater-surface water model. Results show that both lateral transport of groundwater and the rate of drainage from the lower soil layer can weaken or reverse the coupling strength between evaporative fraction and ABL over a 5-month summer period. The resulting shifts in low-level moist convection in river valleys and thermally driven airflows yield strengthened anabatic upslope winds and perturbations to regional precipitation.

Forrester, Mary M.↗
DOE OSTI2025

STILGAR: Subsurface Models for Graymont Pleasant Gap Mine

The detection, location, and monitoring of underground structures are of great importance to national and global security. Tunnels and voids generate seismic signatures detectable at the surface, but using non-invasive seismic data to image near-surface presents several challenges in real-world applications. In this report, we describe the use of a dense surface seismic deployment to generate subsurface models of the Graymont Pleasant Gap mine - a single-layer mine with a complex structure embedded in a high-velocity P-wave limestone bedrock. Our approach consists of three key methods. We use P-wave arrival times from local blast events to perform a tomography inversion with the tomoTD method, constructing a P-wave velocity model of the subsurface. We model the layer above the mine using Rayleigh wave ellipticity and inversion techniques. We leverage ongoing anthropogenic activities to identify and locate noise sources both on the surface and within the subsurface. With this integrated approach we aim to overcome the challenges and enhance our ability to non-invasively characterize underground structures, contributing to improved seismic monitoring techniques.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Tracking snowmelt during hydrological surface processes using a distributed hydrological model in a mesoscale basin on the Tibetan Plateau

We report that mountain snowpack is an important water resource for the high altitude and latitude regions where the terrain is complex. However, the snowmelt pathway and its actual contribution to streamflow and soil moisture are rarely reported and remain unclear in such regions. To fill in this knowledge gap, we incorporate a snowmelt pathway tracking algorithm to a high-resolution physics-based distributed-hydrology-soil-vegetation model (DHSVM), to track snowmelt movement and quantify snowmelt contributions in the surface hydrologic processes. A simple reservoir operation scheme is also incorporated in the model. The modified model is applied to a dammed meso-scale watershed in the northeast Tibetan Plateau, China to study the snow and reservoir effects. The results show that annual snow contribution to soil moisture (SC-SM) and snow contribution to streamflow (SC-S) significantly decrease over 1965-2019. At a monthly scale, SC-SM has the largest amplitude at the top soil layer and its peak in the deeper layer lags behind the upper layer, and mean monthly SC-S at all stations show bimodal distributions corresponding to snowfall season. Reservoir regulation has subtle impacts (≤2.0%) on SC-S. If the current climate change rate continues, monthly and annual streamflow at the outlet will decrease primarily due to snowpack reduction. To mitigate climate change impacts, better water resource management is needed in this watershed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

ClimGen: Learning the Forcing-Response Relationship in Climate System

Solar Radiation Management (SRM) is emerging as a potential geoengineering strategy to address the anthropogenic impact on climate, but its effective implementation requires an iterative and large ensemble of highly accurate and efficient climate projections. Traditional climate projections rely on executing computationally demanding and time-consuming numerical climate models. Recent advances in machine learning (ML) aim to enhance these approaches by emulating traditional methods. In this work, we propose a novel framework for directly learning the relationship between solar radiation flux at the top of the atmosphere and the corresponding surface temperature response. To evaluate the feasibility of this direct ML-based projection, we developed a dataset using an intermediate complexity model, incorporating a comprehensive suite of different forcing patterns and evaluation metrics to rigorously assess the ML model’s performance. We introduce a Conditional Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Model (cDDPM) for this task, which demonstrates encouraging skill in representing climate statistics under previously unseen forcing patterns. This approach provides a promising pathway for direct climate projections by accurately learning the forcing-response relationship, with a wide range of applications in impact mitigation, emissions policy design, and SRM strategies.

Chen, Tse-Chun [BATTELLE (PACIFIC NW LAB)] (ORCID:↗
DOE OSTI2025

Long-term hydro-economic analysis tool for evaluating global groundwater cost and supply: Superwell v1.1

Abstract. Groundwater plays a key role in meeting water demands, supplying over 40 % of irrigation water globally, with this role likely to grow as water demands and surface water variability increase. A better understanding of the future role of groundwater in meeting sectoral demands requires an integrated hydro-economic evaluation of its cost and availability. Yet substantial gaps remain in our knowledge and modeling capabilities related to groundwater availability, recharge, feasible locations for extraction, extractable volumes, and associated extraction costs, which are essential for large-scale analyses of integrated human–water system scenarios, particularly at the global scale. To address these needs, we developed Superwell, a physics-based groundwater extraction and cost accounting model that operates at sub-annual temporal and at the coarsest 0.5° (≈50 km × 50 km) gridded spatial resolution with global coverage. The model produces location-specific groundwater supply–cost curves that provide the levelized cost to access different quantities of available groundwater. The inputs to Superwell include recent high-resolution hydrogeologic datasets of permeability, porosity, aquifer thickness, depth to water table, recharge, and hydrogeological complexity zones. It also accounts for well capital and maintenance costs, as well as the energy costs required to lift water to the surface. The model employs a Theis-based scheme coupled with an amortization-based cost accounting formulation to simulate groundwater extraction and quantify the cost of groundwater pumping. The result is a spatiotemporally flexible, physically realistic, economics-based model that produces groundwater supply–cost curves. We show examples of these supply–cost curves and the insights that can be derived from them across a set of scenarios designed to explore model outcomes. The supply–cost curves produced by the model show that most (90 %) nonrenewable groundwater in storage globally is extractable at costs lower than USD 0.57 m−3, while half of the volume remains extractable at under USD 0.108 m−3. The global unit cost is estimated to range from a minimum of USD 0.004 m−3 to a maximum of USD 3.971 m−3. We also demonstrate and discuss examples of how these cost curves could be used by linking Superwell's outputs with other models to explore coupled human–environmental system challenges, such as water resources planning and management, or broader analyses of multisectoral feedbacks.

Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Density functional theory-based surrogate kinetic models for heterogeneous reactions of hydrocarbon intermediates on silicon carbide

The increasing demand for high-performance materials in advanced technologies highlights the importance of achieving a fundamental understanding and potential control of silicon carbide (SiC) deposition processes. However, existing models often lack sufficient theoretical detail, relying heavily on empirical data and offering limited predictive capability. In particular, the complex surface chemistry governing SiC growth remains poorly understood. This study addresses these challenges by employing density functional theory (DFT) to investigate key heterogeneous reactions involving hydrocarbon intermediates on SiC surfaces, including dehydrogenation, hydrogenation, and carbon deposition. Transition state searches were conducted to identify reaction pathways and energy barriers. While first-principles calculations offer high accuracy, they are computationally intensive. To extend the utility of these first-principles results, vibrational analyses were performed using phonon-based statistical thermochemistry to compute temperature-dependent reaction rates which were used to develop Arrhenius-type surrogate kinetic models. Furthermore, the resulting framework provides a more rigorous, physically grounded basis for integrating atomistic insights into continuum-scale modeling, ultimately enabling improved prediction and optimization of SiC film growth in high-performance material systems.

Density Functional Theory↗
DOE OSTI2025

A conserved chaperone protein is required for the formation of a noncanonical type VI secretion system spike tip complex

Type VI secretion systems (T6SSs) are dynamic protein nanomachines found in Gram-negative bacteria that deliver toxic effector proteins into target cells in a contact-dependent manner. Prior to secretion, many T6SS effector proteins require chaperones and/or accessory proteins for proper loading onto the structural components of the T6SS apparatus. However, despite their established importance, the precise molecular function of several T6SS accessory protein families remains unclear. In this study, we set out to characterize the DUF2169 family of T6SS accessory proteins. Using gene co-occurrence analyses, we find that DUF2169-encoding genes strictly co-occur with genes encoding T6SS spike complexes formed by valine-glycine repeat protein G (VgrG) and DUF4150 domains. Although structurally similar to Pro-Ala-Ala-Arg (PAAR) domains, “PAAR-like” DUF4150 domains lack PAAR motifs and instead contain a conserved PIPY motif, leading us to designate them PIPY domains. Next, we present both genetic and biochemical evidence that PIPY domains require a cognate DUF2169 protein to form a functional T6SS spike complex with VgrG. This contrasts with canonical PAAR proteins, which bind VgrG on their own to form functional spike complexes. By solving the first crystal structure of a DUF2169 protein, we show that this T6SS accessory protein adopts a novel protein fold. Furthermore, biophysical and structural modeling data suggest that DUF2169 contains a dynamic loop that physically interacts with a hydrophobic patch on the surface of its cognate PIPY domain. Based on these findings, we propose a model whereby DUF2169 proteins function as molecular chaperones that maintain VgrG–PIPY spike complexes in a secretion-competent state prior to their export by the T6SS apparatus.

DUF2169↗
DOE OSTI2024

A windowed mean trajectory approximation for condensed phase dynamics

We propose a trajectory-based quasi-classical method for approximating dynamics in condensed phase systems. Building upon the previously developed optimized mean trajectory approximation that has been used to compute linear and nonlinear spectra, we borrow some ideas from filtering trajectory methods to obtain a novel semiclassical method for the dynamical propagation of density matrices. This new approximation is tested rigorously against standard multistate electronic models, spin-boson models, and models of the Fenna–Matthews–Olson complex. For dissipative systems, the current method is significantly better or as good as many other semiclassical methods available, especially at low temperatures and for off-diagonal density matrix elements, whereas for scattering models, the current method bears similar limitations as mean-field propagation schemes. All results are tested against the numerically exact hierarchical equations of motion method. In conclusion, the new method shows excellent agreement across various parameter regimes with numerically exact results, highlighting the robustness and accuracy of our approach.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Accurate Free Energies for Complex Condensed-Phase Reactions Using an Artificial Neural Network Corrected DFTB/MM Methodology

Semiempirical methods like density functional tight-binding (DFTB) allow extensive phase space sampling, making it possible to generate free energy surfaces of complex reactions in condensed-phase environments. Such a high efficiency often comes at the cost of reduced accuracy, which may be improved by developing a specific reaction parametrization (SRP) for the particular molecular system. Thiol–disulfide exchange is a nucleophilic substitution reaction that occurs in a large class of proteins. Its proper description requires a high-level ab initio method, while DFT-GAA and hybrid functionals were shown to be inadequate, and so is DFTB due to its DFT-GGA descent. We develop an SRP for thiol–disulfide exchange based on an artificial neural network (ANN) implementation in the DFTB+ software and compare its performance to that of a standard SRP approach applied to DFTB. Furthermore, as an application, we use both new DFTB-SRP as components of a QM/MM scheme to investigate thiol–disulfide exchange in two molecular complexes: a solvated model system and a blood protein. Demonstrating the strengths of the methodology, highly accurate free energy surfaces are generated at a low cost, as the augmentation of DFTB with an ANN only adds a small computational overhead.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Structural Basis for Inhibition of the Complement Initiator Protease C1r by Lyme Disease Spirochetes

Abstract Complement evasion is a hallmark of extracellular microbial pathogens such as Borrelia burgdorferi, the causative agent of Lyme disease. Lyme disease spirochetes express nearly a dozen outer surface lipoproteins that bind complement components and interfere with their native activities. Among these, BBK32 is unique in its selective inhibition of the classical pathway. BBK32 blocks activation of this pathway by selectively binding and inhibiting the C1r serine protease of the first component of complement, C1. To understand the structural basis for BBK32-mediated C1r inhibition, we performed crystallography and size-exclusion chromatography–coupled small angle X-ray scattering experiments, which revealed a molecular model of BBK32-C in complex with activated human C1r. Structure-guided site-directed mutagenesis was combined with surface plasmon resonance binding experiments and assays of complement function to validate the predicted molecular interface. Analysis of the structures shows that BBK32 inhibits activated forms of C1r by occluding substrate interaction subsites (i.e., S1 and S1’) and reveals a surprising role for C1r B loop–interacting residues for full inhibitory activity of BBK32. The studies reported in this article provide for the first time (to our knowledge) a structural basis for classical pathway–specific inhibition by a human pathogen.

Garrigues, Ryan J. (ORCID:0000000259233250)↗
DOE OSTI2021

The changing nature of hydroclimatic risks across South Africa

We present results from large ensembles of projected twenty-first century changes in seasonal precipitation and near-surface air temperature for the nation of South Africa. These ensembles are a result of combining Monte Carlo projections from a human-Earth system model of intermediate complexity with pattern-scaled responses from climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). These future ensemble scenarios consider a range of global actions to abate emissions through the twenty-first century. We evaluate distributions of surface-air temperature and precipitation change over three sub-national regions: western, central, and eastern South Africa. In all regions, we find that without any emissions or climate targets in place, there is a greater than 50% likelihood that mid-century temperatures will increase threefold over the current climate’s two-standard deviation range of variability. However, scenarios that consider more aggressive climate targets all but eliminate the risk of these salient temperature increases. A preponderance of risk toward decreased precipitation (3 to 4 times higher than increased) exists for western and central South Africa. Strong climate targets abate evolving regional hydroclimatic risks. Under a target to limit global climate warming to 1.5 °C by 2100, the risk of precipitation changes within South Africa toward the end of this century (2065–2074) is commensurate to the risk during the 2030s without any global climate target. Thus, these regional hydroclimate risks over South Africa could be delayed by 30 years and, in doing so, provide invaluable lead-time for national efforts to prepare, fortify, and/or adapt.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗