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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Error-Level-Controlled Synthetic Forecasts for Renewable Generation

Renewable energy resources, including solar and wind energy, play a significant role in sustainable energy systems. However, the inherent uncertainty and intermittency of renewable generation pose challenges to the safe and efficient operation of power systems. Recognizing the importance of short-term (hours ahead) renewable generation forecasting in power systems operation, it becomes crucial to address the potential inaccuracies in these forecasts. To systematically evaluate the performance of controllers in the presence of imperfect forecasts, we generate synthetic forecasts using actual renewable generation profiles (one from solar and one from wind). These synthetic forecasts incorporate different levels of statistical error, allowing us to control and manipulate the accuracy of the predictions. The primary objective is to employ synthetic forecasts with controlled yet realistic error levels to systematically investigate how controllers adapt to variations in forecast accuracy, providing valuable insights into their robustness and effectiveness under real-world conditions.

Array↗
DOE OSTI2020

An investigation of Newton-Sketch and subsampled Newton methods

Sketching, a dimensionality reduction technique, has received much attention in the statistics community. In this paper, we study sketching in the context of Newton's method for solving finite-sum optimization problems in which the number of variables and data points are both large. In this work, we study two forms of sketching that perform dimensionality reduction in data space: Hessian subsampling and randomized Hadamard transformations. Each has its own advantages, and their relative tradeoffs have not been investigated in the optimization literature. Additionally, our study focuses on practical versions of the two methods in which the resulting linear systems of equations are solved approximately, at every iteration, using an iterative solver. The advantages of using the conjugate gradient method vs. a stochastic gradient iteration are revealed through a set of numerical experiments, and a complexity analysis of the Hessian subsampling method is presented.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

AADL: Anderson Accelerated Deep Learning

We propose a stable, distributed approach to perform AA that accelerates the convergence rate of stochastic first-order optimizers to train neural networks. Differently from previous works, we do not alter neither the scheme to perform AA nor the loss function minimized during the training. To improve robustness against stagnation, we customize general guidelines that suggest to relax the frequency of AA corrections by performing AA only at the end of an entire training epoch. To improve robustness of AA against the stochastic oscillations of first-order optimizers, we average the gradients computed on consecutive stochastic optimization updates. The improved regularity of the converging sequence and the reduced amplitude of stochastic oscillations across consecutive optimization steps allows AA to efficiently extrapolate an improved converging sequence, thereby overcoming limitations of existing approaches to perform AA on stochastic optimization.

Lupo Pasini, Massimiliano [Oak Ridge National Lab.↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Dynamic Amplitude-Correcting Gradient Estimation Technique to Align X-ray Focusing Optics

High-brightness X-rays, as produced at synchrotrons and X-ray free electron laser (XFEL) facilities, are used to characterize materials in a variety of scientific experiments. In most cases, effective use of the high-energy light requires precisely-aligned focusing optics; one example being a compound refractive lens (CRL). To align a CRL, the position and rotation must be optimized along four axes. In practice, this is a labor-intensive, time-consuming manual process that can monopolize scarce experimental time at the necessary X-ray facilities. Models of the expected Xray transmission function suggest that this task can be automated; however, the temporally-varying intensity at X-ray free electron laser facilities preclude the direct use of standard implementations of optimization solvers such as steepest descent algorithms. In this paper, we propose a novel technique to estimate the gradient of noisy functions with temporally-varying amplitudes. We construct this dynamicamplitude correction by systematically sampling a fixed central location within the standard finite difference stencil, accounting for the observed changes in time, and normalizing the difference quotients against those fluctuations. In addition to a rigorous error analysis of the sampling technique, we demonstrate its efficacy in stochastic descent optimization methods. Further, we demonstrate how this approach may be implemented to optimize X-ray focusing optics at synchrotrons or XFEL facilities

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

mpi-sppy: Optimization Under Uncertainty for Pyomo

We introduce a new Pyomo extension for optimization under uncertainty, mpi-sppy. This extension allows for the mixing of, and sharing of information between, various algorithmic approaches for optimization under uncertainty. We will discuss the underlying architecture and assess the performance and scalability of mpi-sppy on various systems, including HPC clusters.

27 ARPA - Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy↗
DOE OSTI2021

Next-Cycle Optimal Fuel Control for Cycle-to-Cycle Variability Reduction in EGR-Diluted Combustion

In this simulation study, cycle-to-cycle fuel control was used to reduce CCV by injecting additional fuel in operating conditions with sporadic misfires and partial burns. An optimal control policy was proposed that utilizes 1) a physics-based model that tracks in-cylinder gas composition and 2) a one-step-ahead prediction of the combustion efficiency based on a kernel density estimator. The optimal solution, however, presents a tradeoff between the reduction in combustion CCV and the increase in fuel injection quantity required to stabilize the charge. Such a tradeoff can be ad- just by a single parameter embedded in the cost function.

Maldonado, BryanP. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL)↗
DOE OSTI2021

End-to-End Differentiable Modeling and Management of the Environment

Focal Area: (2) Data acquisition and assimilation enabled by machine learning, AI, and advanced methods including experimental/network design/optimization. We emphasize the importance of leveraging optimization techniques from AI/machine learning (ML) to solve challenging problems in Earth system modeling. Science Challenge: Automatic differentiation has had a transformative effect on ML by allowing the calculation of gradients of arbitrary functions in an incredibly large class of models. We can potentially realize similar improvements in parameter estimation and control for Earth system models (ESMs) by reimplementing them in computational frameworks from ML. Practitioners working with large (>10 7 parameters) models in ML and AI can obtain good predictive performance in a range of spatiotemporal tasks by making use of optimization via stochastic gradient descent and incorporating prior knowledge at multiple levels. We propose writing ESMs in open-source computational frameworks such as Torch, Tensorflow, and JAX to greatly expand the scope of environmental forecasting and management challenges, which can be addressed by leveraging automatic differentiation and gradient descent-like algorithms. We do not call for a wholesale replacement of physical models with data-driven surrogates, but rather advocate for interleaving physical and empirical equations in a manner that is most faithful to the extent of our scientific knowledge and observational data. Central to this topic is the merging of differentiable physical simulations with differentiable optimization layers, which are now both beginning to come to the forefront.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Finite elements for Matérn-type random fields: Uncertainty in computational mechanics and design optimization

This work highlights an approach for incorporating realistic uncertainties into scientific computing workflows based on finite elements, focusing on prevalent applications in computational mechanics and design optimization. We leverage Matérn-type Gaussian random fields (GRFs) generated using the SPDE method to model aleatoric uncertainties, including environmental influences, variating material properties, and geometric ambiguities. Our focus lies on delivering practical GRF realizations that accurately capture imperfections and variations and understanding how they impact the predictions of computational models as well as the shape and topology of optimized designs. Here we describe a numerical algorithm based on solving a generalized SPDE to sample GRFs on arbitrary meshed domains. The algorithm leverages established techniques and integrates seamlessly with the open-source finite element library MFEM and associated scientific computing workflows, like those found in industrial and national laboratory settings. Our solver scales efficiently for large-scale problems and supports various domain types, including surfaces and embedded manifolds. We showcase its versatility through biomechanics and topology optimization applications, emphasizing the potential to influence these domains. The flexibility and efficiency of SPDE-based GRF generation empowers us to run large-scale optimization problems on 2D and 3D domains, including finding optimized designs on embedded surfaces, and to generate design features and topologies beyond the reach of conventional techniques. Moreover, these capabilities allow us to model and quantify geometric uncertainties on reconstructed submanifolds, such as the interpolated surfaces of cerebral aneurysms provided by postprocessing CT scans. In addition to offering benefits in these specific domains, the proposed techniques transcend specific applications and generalize to arbitrary forward and backward problems in uncertainty quantification involving finite elements.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Technoeconomic assessment of hydrogen cogeneration via high temperature steam electrolysis with a light-water reactor

Increased electricity production from renewable energy resources, coupled with low natural gas (NG) prices, has caused existing light-water reactors (LWRs) to experience diminishing returns from the electricity market. This reduction in revenue is forcing LWRs to consider alternative revenue streams, such as introduction hydrogen production or desalination, to remain profitable. This paper performs a technoeconomic assessment (TEA) regarding the viability of retrofitting existing pressurized-water reactors (PWRs) to produce green hydrogen (H 2 ) via high-temperature steam electrolysis (HTSE). Such an integration would allow nuclear facilities to expand into additional markets that may be more profitable in the long term and eliminate CO 2 emissions from the hydrogen production process. Here, to accommodate such an integration, a detailed single market levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) and multimarket analyses were conducted of HTSE process operation, requirements, costing, and flexibility. Alongside this costing analysis, market analyses were conducted on the electric and hydrogen markets in the PJM interconnect. Utilizing a novel stochastic, dispatch optimization approach results suggest that a positive gain is achievable, and by operating in multiple markets, the nuclear facility can avoid the sale of electricity during times of low electricity market pricing, while maintaining the ability to capitalize on the high electricity market pricing. It should be noted that the analysis conducted is a differential cash flow analysis and, as such, does not present profit levels. LCOH analysis results demonstrate the potential exists to produce hydrogen at a cost as low as $1.20/kg. This price is lower than traditional steam methane reforming (SMR) allowing nuclear based hydrogen production to disrupt the existing hydrogen production market.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

A control-inspired approach for energy transition planning under uncertainty

As the global carbon footprint continues to grow, many countries are implementing carbon emission reduction policies which have incentivized the expansion of low-carbon and renewable technologies. However, the speed and scale of deployment falls short of that needed to meet climate goals. Energy system models serve as key tools for guiding investment decisions and helping policymakers evaluate the effects of various policies on the development of an energy system. This study focuses on the energy system of the United States and builds upon prior work by incorporating more geographic granularity to account for the trade of commodities and addresses transmission congestion through electricity price adjustments. Furthermore, real-world characteristics, such as delays in constructing new liquid fuel production and electricity generation facilities, are integrated using a sequential decision-making approach that better reflects how decisions can be updated as uncertainties unfold. Results demonstrate that stochastic programming combined with sequential decision-making produces energy transition pathways that are robust to multiple uncertain futures. Additionally, considering real-world characteristics significantly impacts the deployment of renewable technologies and the ability to meet carbon emission reduction goals while also reliably meeting demand. These findings highlight the importance of accounting for uncertainty and real-world characteristics to avoid overly optimistic projections in energy system planning.

energy systems↗
DOE OSTI2022

Kernel learning backward SDE filter for data assimilation

In this paper, we develop a kernel learning backward SDE filter method to estimate the state of a stochastic dynamical system based on its partial noisy observations. A system of forward backward stochastic differential equations is used to propagate the state of the target dynamical model, and Bayesian inference is applied to incorporate the observational information. Further, to characterize the dynamical model in the entire state space, we introduce a kernel learning method to learn a continuous global approximation for the conditional probability density function of the target state by using discrete approximated density values as training data. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the kernel learning backward SDE is highly effective.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Quantifying the impacts of climate change and extreme climate events on energy systems

Climate induced extreme weather events and weather variations will affect both the demand of energy and the resilience of energy supply systems. The specific potential impact of extreme events on energy systems has been difficult to quantify due to the unpredictability of future weather events. In this work, we develop a stochastic-robust optimization method to consider both low impact variations and extreme events. Applications of the method to 30 cities in Sweden, by considering 13 climate change scenarios, reveal that uncertainties in renewable energy potential and demand can lead to a significant performance gap (up to 34% for grid integration) brought by future climate variations and a drop in power supply reliability (up to 16%) due to extreme weather events. Finally, appropriate quantification of the climate change impacts will ensure robust operation of the energy systems and enable renewable energy penetration above 30% for a majority of the cities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantum computing for finance

Quantum computers are expected to surpass the computational capabilities of classical computers and have a transformative impact on numerous industry sectors. Here, we present a comprehensive summary of the state of the art of quantum computing for financial applications, with particular emphasis on stochastic modelling, optimization and machine learning. This Review is aimed at physicists, so it outlines the classical techniques used by the financial industry and discusses the potential advantages and limitations of quantum techniques. Finally, we look at the challenges that physicists could help tackle. Quantum computers are expected to surpass classical computers and transform industries. This Review focuses on quantum computing for financial applications and provides a summary for physicists on potential advantages and limitations of quantum techniques, as well as challenges that physicists could help tackle.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Deep Reinforcement Learning for Distribution System Restoration Using Distributed Energy Resources and Tie-Switches

Distributed energy resources (DERs), such as solar PVs and energy storage, can be used to restore distribution system critical loads after the extreme weather events to increase grid resilience. However, coordinating multiple DERs together with tie-switches for multi-step restoration process under renewable uncertainty is challenging. This paper proposes a deep reinforcement learning to control discrete actions of switching on/off tie switches and DERs for critical load restoration. The restoration problem is first cast into the Markov decision process suitable for DRL. Then, the original soft actor critic (SAC) method for continuous actions has been extended to handle discrete and continuous actions. Numerical comparison results with other stochastic optimization-based approaches on the modified IEEE 33-bus system show that the proposed method can achieve fast critical load restoration in the presence of substation power outage while maintaining system voltage limit throughout the restoration process.

active distribution systems↗
DOE OSTI2020

Mitigating Cascading Outages in Severe Weather Using Simulation-Based Optimization

Severe weather events can trigger cascading power outages and lead to significant losses. In this work, we investigate cascading outage mitigation under severe weather conditions. Given day-ahead weather forecasts and component failure models, we aim to identify a set of power lines that can be hardened to minimize the expected impact of potential cascading outages. Since the expected load shedding cannot be expressed as an explicit function of line hardening decisions and system states, we developed a cascading outage simulator to estimate the expected value of load shedding under various initial weather-related disruption scenarios generated using a weather forecast. To avoid massive enumeration of all possible combinations of line hardening decisions and reduce the simulation efforts, we employed an efficient simulation-based optimization approach that quickly identifies the (near) optimal line hardening decisions in the presence of both large simulation noises due to the highly variable initial disturbances and system states, and significant randomness in the subsequent cascades. Furthermore, the algorithm is also able to utilize parallel computing to dramatically reduce computation time to support decision making in preparation for severe weather conditions. We performed a case study on the Northeast Power Coordinating Council (NPCC) 140-bus system model to demonstrate that our approach can significantly improve power grid resilience to adverse weather events.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Stochastic Gradients for Large-Scale Tensor Decomposition

Tensor decomposition is a well-known tool for multiway data analysis. This work proposes using stochastic gradients for efficient generalized canonical polyadic (GCP) tensor decomposition of large-scale tensors. GCP tensor decomposition is a recently proposed version of tensor decomposition that allows for a variety of loss functions such as Bernoulli loss for binary data or Huber loss for robust estimation. Here, the stochastic gradient is formed from randomly sampled elements of the tensor and is efficient because it can be computed using the sparse matricized-tensor times Khatri--Rao product tensor kernel. For dense tensors, we simply use uniform sampling. For sparse tensors, we propose two types of stratified sampling that give precedence to sampling nonzeros. Numerical results demonstrate the advantages of the proposed approach and its scalability to large-scale problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗