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At least 181 records · Page 10

Juniper Pollen Hotspots in the Southwest

Rationale: Juniperus pollen is a major allergen in Texas, Oklahoma, and New Mexico. While the bulk of pollen may be released in rural areas, large amounts of pollen can be transported to urban areas. Major juniper species in the region include: Juniperus ashei, J. virginiana, J. pinchotii, and J. monosperma. Pollen release is virtually continuous beginning in late September with J. pinchotii and ending in May with J. monosperma. Urban areas in the region were evaluated for the potential of overlapping seasons in order to inform sensitive individuals. Methods: Burkard volumetric pollen traps were established for two consecutive spring seasons at 6 sites in northern New Mexico and 6 sites for two consecutive winter and fall seasons in Texas and Oklahoma Standard methods were used in the preparation and analysis of slides. Results: The Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex is home to over 6 million people. It is adjacent to populations of J. pinchotii, J. virginiana, and J. ashei. Peak concentration near Dallas for J. ashei in 2011 was 5891 pollen grains/m3 in January 7th. The peak date for J. pinchotii at an upwind sampling location in San Marcos, TX was November 1, 2010 and peak for J. virginiana at a nearby station in Tulsa, OK was November 1, 2010 and peak for J. virginiana at a nearby station in Tulsa, OK was February 20, 2011. Amarillo, TX is adjacent to J. pinchotii, J. ashei, and J. monosperma populations and may be subject to juniper pollen from September through May. Conclusions: Considering the overlapping distributions of juniper trees and the overlapping temporal release of pollen, sensitive patients may benefit from avoiding hotspots.

Bunderson, L. D.↗

Recent increases in annual, seasonal, and extreme methane fluxes driven by changes in climate and vegetation in boreal and temperate wetland ecosystems

Climate warming is expected to increase global methane (CH 4 ) emissions from wetland ecosystems. Although in situ eddy covariance (EC) measurements at ecosystem scales can potentially detect CH 4 flux changes, most EC systems have only a few years of data collected, so temporal trends in CH 4 remain uncertain. Here, we use established drivers to hindcast changes in CH 4 fluxes (FCH 4 ) since the early 1980s. We trained a machine learning (ML) model on CH 4 flux measurements from 22 [methane-producing sites] in wetland, upland, and lake sites of the FLUXNET-CH 4 database with at least two full years of measurements across temperate and boreal biomes. The gradient boosting decision tree ML model then hindcasted daily FCH 4 over 1981-2018 using meteorological reanalysis data. We found that, mainly driven by rising temperature, half of the sites (n = 11) showed significant increases in annual, seasonal, and extreme FCH 4 , with increases in FCH 4 of ca. 10% or higher found in the fall from 1981–1989 to 2010–2018. The annual trends were driven by increases during summer and fall, particularly at high-CH 4 -emitting fen sites dominated by aerenchymatous plants. We also found that the distribution of days of extremely high FCH 4 (defined according to the 95th percentile of the daily FCH 4 values over a reference period) have become more frequent during the last four decades and currently account for 10–40% of the total seasonal fluxes. The share of extreme FCH 4 days in the total seasonal fluxes was greatest in winter for boreal/taiga sites and in spring for temperate sites, which highlights the increasing importance of the non-growing seasons in annual budgets. Our results shed light on the effects of climate warming on wetlands, which appears to be extending the CH 4 emission seasons and boosting extreme emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

GEO-SEQ Subtask 2.3.4: Microseismic Monitoring and Analysis

LBNL's recent analysis of the microseismic data being acquired at well KB-601 has produced a new result of significantly more microseismic activity than previously estimated. During 2009-2010, there was background activity of 1 or 2 events per day with a notable increase during the spring-summer months of up to 20 or more events in a signal day (Figure 1). This level of activity warrants increased effort to obtain quantitative information, and supports plans for expansion of the microseismic monitoring. Quantitative interpretation of these events, including locations, is still hampered by physically unrealistic data from some sensors and uncertainty in which sensors are being recorded and their depth. We now believe that some quantitative analysis will be possible, building upon LBNL's earlier work and analysis conducted by Pinnacle, and utilizing the sledge-hammer tests conducted in the fall of 2010 by the JIP. Current acquisition problems include electrical noise, lack of GPS clock timing, and the sensor uncertainty. To address the acquisition problems, we continue to recommend an active-source recording test with full 144 channel capability (or at least 48 channel). We also recommend a site visit for debugging and repair by a technician knowledgeable in the REF TEK recording system and microseismic acquisition.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA Exploration Launch Projects Overview: The Crew Launch Vehicle and the Cargo Launch Vehicle Systems

The U.S. Vision for Space Exploration (January 2004) serves as the foundation for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) strategic goals and objectives. As the NASA Administrator outlined during his confirmation hearing in April 2005, these include: 1) Flying the Space Shuttle as safely as possible until its retirement, not later than 2010. 2) Bringing a new Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) into service as soon as possible after Shuttle retirement. 3) Developing a balanced overall program of science, exploration, and aeronautics at NASA, consistent with the redirection of the human space flight program to focus on exploration. 4) Completing the International Space Station (ISS) in a manner consistent with international partner commitments and the needs of human exploration. 5) Encouraging the pursuit of appropriate partnerships with the emerging commercial space sector. 6) Establishing a lunar return program having the maximum possible utility for later missions to Mars and other destinations. In spring 2005, the Agency commissioned a team of aerospace subject matter experts to perform the Exploration Systems Architecture Study (ESAS). The ESAS team performed in-depth evaluations of a number of space transportation architectures and provided recommendations based on their findings? The ESAS analysis focused on a human-rated Crew Launch Vehicle (CLV) for astronaut transport and a heavy lift Cargo Launch Vehicle (CaLV) to carry equipment, materials, and supplies for lunar missions and, later, the first human journeys to Mars. After several months of intense study utilizing safety and reliability, technical performance, budget, and schedule figures of merit in relation to design reference missions, the ESAS design options were unveiled in summer 2005. As part of NASA's systems engineering approach, these point of departure architectures have been refined through trade studies during the ongoing design phase leading to the development phase that begins in 2008. Comprehensive reviews of engineering data and business assessments by both internal and independent reviewers serve as decision gates to ensure that systems can fully meet customer and stakeholder requirements. This paper provides the current CLV and CaLV configuration designs and gives examples of the progress being made during the first year of this significant effort. Safe, reliable, cost-effective space transportation systems are a foundational piece of America s future in space and the next step in realizing the plan for revitalizing lunar capabilities on the passageway to the human exploration of Mars. While building on legacy knowledge and heritage hardware for risk reduction, NASA will apply lessons learned from developing these new launch vehicles to the growth path for future missions. The elements for mission success and continued U.S. leadership in space have been assembled over the past year. As NASA designs and develops these two new systems over the next dozen years, visible progress, such as that reported in this paper, may sustain the national will to stay the course across political administrations and weather the inevitable trials that will be experienced during this challenging endeavor.

Snoddy, Jimmy R.↗

Contrasting Regional Carbon Cycle Responses to Seasonal Climate Anomalies Across the East-West Divide of Temperate North America

Across temperate North America, interannual variability (IAV) in gross primary production (GPP) and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and their relationship with environmental drivers are poorly understood. Here, we examine IAV in GPP and NEE and their relationship to environmental drivers using two state-of-the-science flux products: NEE constrained by surface and space-based atmospheric CO 2 measurements over 2010-2015 and satellite up-scaled GPP from FluxSat over 2001-2017. We show that the arid western half of temperate North America provides a larger contribution to IAV in GPP (104% of east) and NEE (127% of east) than the eastern half, in spite of smaller magnitude of annual mean GPP and NEE. This occurs because anomalies in western ecosystems are temporally coherent across the growing season leading to an amplification of GPP and NEE. In contrast, IAV in GPP and NEE in eastern ecosystems is dominated by seasonal compensation effects, associated with opposite responses to temperature anomalies in spring and summer. Terrestrial biosphere models in the MsTMIP ensemble generally capture these differences between eastern and western temperate North America, although there is considerable spread between models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An Assessment of the Skill of GEOS-5 Seasonal Forecasts

The seasonal forecast skill of the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office coupled global climate model (CGCM) is evaluated based on an ensemble of 9-month lead forecasts for the period 1993 to 2010. The results from the current version (V2) of the CGCM consisting of the GEOS-5 AGM coupled to the MOM4 ocean model are compared with those from an earlier version (V1) in which the AGCM (the NSIPP model) was coupled to the Poseidon Ocean Model. It was found that the correlation skill of the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) forecasts is generally better in V2, especially over the sub-tropical and tropical central and eastern Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Ocean. Furthermore, the improvement in skill in V2 mainly comes from better forecasts of the developing phase of ENSO from boreal spring to summer. The skill of ENSO forecasts initiated during the boreal winter season, however, shows no improvement in terms of correlation skill, and is in fact slightly worse in terms of root mean square error (RMSE). The degradation of skill is found to be due to an excessive ENSO amplitude. For V1, the ENSO amplitude is too strong in forecasts starting in boreal spring and summer, which causes large RMSE in the forecast. For V2, the ENSO amplitude is slightly stronger than that in observations and V1 for forecasts starting in boreal winter season. An analysis of the terms in the SST tendency equation, shows that this is mainly due to an excessive zonal advective feedback. In addition, V2 forecasts that are initiated during boreal winter season, exhibit a slower phase transition of El Nino, which is consistent with larger amplitude of ENSO after the ENSO peak season. It is found that this is due to weak discharge of equatorial Warm Water Volume (WWV). In both observations and V1, the discharge of equatorial WWV leads the equatorial geostrophic easterly current so as to damp the El Nino starting in January. This process is delayed by about 2 months in V2 due to the slower phase transition of the equatorial zonal current from westerly to easterly.

GMAO↗

Semi-Annual Report on Work Supporting the International Forum for Reactor Aging Management (IFRAM)

During the first six months of this project, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory has provided planning and leadership support for the establishment of the International Forum for Reactor Aging Management (IFRAM). This entailed facilitating the efforts of the Global Steering Committee to prepare the charter, operating guidelines, and other documents for IFRAM. It also included making plans for the Inaugural meeting and facilitating its success. This meeting was held on August 4 5, 2011, in Colorado Springs, Colorado. Representatives from Asia, Europe, and the United States met to share information on reactor aging management and to make plans for the future. Professor Tetsuo Shoji was elected chairperson of the Leadership Council. This kick-off event transformed the dream of an international forum into a reality. On August 4-5, 2011, IFRAM began to achieve its mission. The work completed successfully during this period was built upon important previous efforts. This included the development of a proposal for establishing IFRAM and engaging experts in Asia and Europe. The proposal was presented at Engagement workshops in Seoul, Korea (October 2009) and Petten, The Netherlands (May 2010). Participants in both groups demonstrated strong interest in the establishment of IFRAM. Therefore, the Global Steering Committee was formed to plan and carry out the start-up of IFRAM in 2011. This report builds on the initial activities and documents the results of activities over the last six months.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

A new approach to modeling temperature-related mortality: Non-linear autoregressive models with exogenous input

Highlights: • NARX models are established in other environmental research, but are unused in temperature-related mortality research. • NARX models do not assume any particular shape to the temperature-mortality association. • NARX models are cross-validated and are easily modified to take on real-time, multi-step-ahead predictions and hindcasts. • Year-round, daily mortality in 41 different US cities was modeled using an ensemble of NARX models in each location. • Models show skill everywhere. Results vary spatially and seasonally, improving upon a persistence model by 17% points. • When compared with distributed lag non-linear models, the output time series are largely similar Temperature-mortality relationships are nonlinear, time-lagged, and can vary depending on the time of year and geographic location, all of which limits the applicability of simple regression models in describing these associations. This research demonstrates the utility of an alternative method for modeling such complex relationships that has gained recent traction in other environmental fields: nonlinear autoregressive models with exogenous input (NARX models). All-cause mortality data and multiple temperature-based data sets were gathered from 41 different US cities, for the period 1975–2010, and subjected to ensemble NARX modeling. Models generally performed better in larger cities and during the winter season. Across the US, median absolute percentage errors were 10% (ranging from 4% to 15% in various cities), the average improvement in the r-squared over that of a simple persistence model was 17% (6–24%), and the hit rate for modeling spike days in mortality (>80th percentile) was 54% (34–71%). Mortality responded acutely to hot summer days, peaking at 0–2 days of lag before dropping precipitously, and there was an extended mortality response to cold winter days, peaking at 2–4 days of lag and dropping slowly and continuing for multiple weeks. Spring and autumn showed both of the aforementioned temperature-mortality relationships, but generally to a lesser magnitude than what was seen in summer or winter. When compared to distributed lag nonlinear models, NARX model output was nearly identical. These results highlight the applicability of NARX models for use in modeling complex and time-dependent relationships for various applications in epidemiology and environmental sciences.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

THERMAL AND CHEMICAL STRUCTURE VARIATIONS IN TITAN'S STRATOSPHERE DURING THE CASSINI MISSION

We have developed a line-by-line Atmospheric Radiative Transfer for Titan code that includes the most recent laboratory spectroscopic data and haze descriptions relative to Titan's stratosphere. We use this code to model Cassini Composite Infrared Spectrometer data taken during the numerous Titan flybys from 2006 to 2012 at surface-intercepting geometry in the 600-1500 cm{sup -1} range for latitudes from 50 Degree-Sign S to 50 Degree-Sign N. We report variations in temperature and chemical composition in the stratosphere during the Cassini mission, before and after the Northern Spring Equinox (NSE). We find indication for a weakening of the temperature gradient with warming of the stratosphere and cooling of the lower mesosphere. In addition, we infer precise concentrations for the trace gases and their main isotopologues and find that the chemical composition in Titan's stratosphere varies significantly with latitude during the 6 years investigated here, with increased mixing ratios toward the northern latitudes. In particular, we monitor and quantify the amplitude of a maximum enhancement of several gases observed at northern latitudes up to 50 Degree-Sign N around mid-2009, at the time of the NSE. We find that this rise is followed by a rapid decrease in chemical inventory in 2010 probably due to a weakening north polar vortex with reduced lateral mixing across the vortex boundary.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Spatial and temporal trends in contaminant concentrations in Hexagenia nymphs following a coal ash spill at the Tennessee Valley Authority's Kingston Fossil Plant

A dike failure at the Tennessee Valley Authority Kingston Fossil Plant in East Tennessee, United States, in December 2008, released approximately 4.1 million m(3) of coal ash into the Emory River. From 2009 through 2012, samples of mayfly nymphs (Hexagenia bilineata) were collected each spring from sites in the Emory, Clinch, and Tennessee Rivers upstream and downstream of the spill. Samples were analyzed for 17 metals. Concentrations of metals were generally highest the first 2 miles downstream of the spill, and then decreased with increasing distance from the spill. Arsenic, B, Ba, Be, Mo, Sb, Se, Sr, and V appeared to have strong ash signatures, whereas Co, Cr, Cu, Ni, and Pb appeared to be associated with ash and other sources. However, the concentrations for most of these contaminants were modest and are unlikely to cause widespread negative ecological effects. Trends in Hg, Cd, and Zn suggested little (Hg) or no (Cd, Zn) association with ash. Temporal trends suggested that concentrations of ash-related contaminants began to subside after 2010, but because of the limited time period of that analysis (4 yr), further monitoring is needed to verify this trend. The present study provides important information on the magnitude of contaminant exposure to aquatic receptors from a major coal ash spill, as well as spatial and temporal trends for transport of the associated contaminants in a large open watershed.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Wastewater Treatment at the Fernald Preserve-Past, Present, and Future - 19555

Industrial wastewater treatment at the Fernald Preserve, Ohio, Site has been ongoing since a uranium metals refinery was constructed there at the beginning of the Cold War in 1951. Initially, the primary purpose of treatment was to recover uranium for reuse. Later, when cleanup of the site was progressing in the 1990's, wastewater treatment efforts greatly expanded. Large treatment facilities were constructed to handle contaminated surface water, groundwater, remediation wastewater, and leachate from the on-site disposal facility. These new facilities were designed to reduce uranium concentration to meet the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) drinking water standard and not generate large quantities of contaminated waste. Anion-exchange resin was chosen as the treatment media. The centerpiece of these facilities was the Advanced Wastewater Treatment facility, which had a treatment capacity of 10,978 liters per minute (lpm) (2900 gallons per minute [gpm]). Forecasts estimated that with the exception of groundwater the site's remediation would be completed in 2006. In 2003, the US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Environmental Management began negotiations with the EPA and Ohio Environmental Protection Agency to reduce wastewater treatment capacity at the Fernald Environmental Management Project. These negotiations resulted in the site's treatment capacity being reduced to 6814 lpm (1800 gpm) via the Converted Advanced Wastewater Treatment facility (CAWWT). By 2010, the uranium concentration in the groundwater being pumped had been reduced to the degree that only intermittent treatment for uranium removal was needed. As a result, the CAWWT was considerably oversized. Increased maintenance on the aging CAWWT equipment led the DOE Office of Legacy Management (LM) to commission an assessment of the facility, which was completed in early 2015. The condition assessment identified numerous components at or near the end of their design life. Based on the assessment's findings and the fact that the current facility's treatment capacity was substantially greater than needed, LM began looking at options for an appropriately sized treatment system to handle the site's needs until the groundwater remediation was completed (currently projected for 2039). Options were evaluated in the spring of 2015, and LM presented the recommended changes to regulators and stakeholders. Approvals for a new, smaller system with a 189 lpm (50 gpm) capacity were obtained through a series of meetings in the summer of 2015. After more detailed planning in the fall of 2015, LM initiated the project in 2016. The project comprises the following four phases: (1) Removal and disposal of used media, piping, and tanks to make room for the new system in the existing building (completed in January 2017); (2) design of the new system (completed in April 2017); (3) construction, installation, and startup of the new system (completed in May 2018); and (4) backwash basin refurbishment (yet to be completed). In the late 2030's, when groundwater remediation is projected to be completed at the site, it is anticipated that the only remaining wastewater treatment need will be for small quantities of leachate from the on-site disposal facility. Results of leachate treatment testing in 2003 indicate it may be feasible to utilize a small passive treatment system for this leachate. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Multi-Scale Mass Transfer Processes Controlling Natural Attenuation and Engineered Remediation: An IFRC Focused on Hanford’s 300 Area Uranium Plume

The Integrated Field Research Challenge (IFRC) at the Hanford Site 300 Area uranium (U) plume addresses multi-scale mass transfer processes in a complex subsurface biogeochemical setting where groundwater and riverwater interact. A series of forefront science questions on reactive mass transfer motivates research. These questions relate to the effect of spatial heterogeneities; the importance of scale; coupled interactions between biogeochemical, hydrologic, and mass transfer processes; and measurements and approaches needed to characterize and model a mass-transfer dominated biogeochemical system. The project was initiated in February 2007, with CY 2007, CY 2008, CY 2009, and CY 2010 progress summarized in preceding reports. A project peer review was held in March 2010, and the IFRC project acted upon all suggestions and recommendations made in consequence by reviewers and SBR/DOE. These responses have included the development of 'Modeling' and 'Well-Field Mitigation' plans that are now posted on the Hanford IFRC web-site, and modifications to the IFRC well-field completed in CY 2011. The site has 35 instrumented wells, and an extensive monitoring system. It includes a deep borehole for microbiologic and biogeochemical research that sampled the entire thickness of the unconfined 300 A aquifer. Significant, impactful progress has been made in CY 2011 including: (i) well modifications to eliminate well-bore flows, (ii) hydrologic testing of the modified well-field and upper aquifer, (iii) geophysical monitoring of winter precipitation infiltration through the U-contaminated vadose zone and spring river water intrusion to the IFRC, (iv) injection experimentation to probe the lower vadose zone and to evaluate the transport behavior of high U concentrations, (v) extended passive monitoring during the period of water table rise and fall, and (vi) collaborative down-hole experimentation with the PNNL SFA on the biogeochemistry of the 300 A Hanford-Ringold contact and the underlying redox transition zone. The modified well-field has functioned superbly without any evidence for well-bore flows. Beyond these experimental efforts, our site-wide reactive transport models (PFLOTRAN and eSTOMP) have been updated to include site geostatistical models of both hydrologic properties and adsorbed U distribution; and new hydrologic characterization measurements of the upper aquifer. These increasingly robust models are being used to simulate past and recent U desorption-adsorption experiments performed under different hydrologic conditions, and heuristic modeling to understand the complex functioning of the smear zone. We continued efforts to assimilate geophysical logging and 3D ERT characterization data into our site wide geophysical model, with significant and positive progress in 2011 that will enable publication in 2012. Our increasingly comprehensive field experimental results and robust reactive transport simulators, along with the field and laboratory characterization, are leading to a new conceptual model of U(VI) flow and transport in the IFRC footprint and the 300 Area in general, and insights on the microbiological community and associated biogeochemical processes influencing N, S, C, Mn, and Fe. Collectively these findings and higher scale models are providing a unique and unparalleled system-scale understanding of the biogeochemical function of the groundwater-river interaction zone.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Slip and Dilation Tendency Analysis of the Tuscarora Geothermal Area

Critically stressed fault segments have a relatively high likelihood of acting as fluid flow conduits (Sibson, 1994). As such, the tendency of a fault segment to slip (slip tendency; Ts; Morris et al., 1996) or to dilate (dilation tendency; Td; Ferrill et al., 1999) provides an indication of which faults or fault segments within a geothermal system are critically stressed and therefore likely to transmit geothermal fluids. The slip tendency of a surface is defined by the ratio of shear stress to normal stress on that surface: Ts = T / on (Morris et al., 1996). Dilation tendency is defined by the stress acting normal to a given surface: Td = (o1-on) / (o1-o3) (Ferrill et al., 1999). Slip and dilation were calculated using 3DStress (Southwest Research Institute). Slip and dilation tendency are both unitless ratios of the resolved stresses applied to the fault plane by ambient stress conditions. Values range from a maximum of 1, a fault plane ideally oriented to slip or dilate under ambient stress conditions to zero, a fault plane with no potential to slip or dilate. Slip and dilation tendency values were calculated for each fault in the focus study areas at, McGinness Hills, Neal Hot Springs, Patua, Salt Wells, San Emidio, and Tuscarora on fault traces. As dip is not well constrained or unknown for many faults mapped in within these we made these calculations using the dip for each fault that would yield the maximum slip tendency or dilation tendency. As such, these results should be viewed as maximum tendency of each fault to slip or dilate. The resulting along-fault and fault-to-fault variation in slip or dilation potential is a proxy for along fault and fault-to-fault variation in fluid flow conduit potential. Stress Magnitudes and directions Stress field variation within each focus area was approximated based on regional published data and the world stress database (Hickman et al., 2000; Hickman et al., 1998 Robertson-Tait et al., 2004; Hickman and Davatzes, 2010; Davatzes and Hickman, 2006; Blake and Davatzes 2011; Blake and Davatzes, 2012; Moeck et al., 2010; Moos and Ronne, 2010 and Reinecker et al., 2005) as well as local stress information if applicable. For faults within these focus systems we applied either a normal faulting stress regime where the vertical stress (sv) is larger than the maximum horizontal stress (shmax) which is larger than the minimum horizontal stress (sv>shmax>shmin) or strike-slip faulting stress regime where the maximum horizontal stress (shmax) is larger than the vertical stress (sv) which is larger than the minimum horizontal stress (shmax >sv>shmin) depending on the general tectonic province of the system. Based on visual inspection of the limited stress magnitude data in the Great Basin we used magnitudes such that shmin/shmax = .527 and shmin/sv= .46, which are consistent with complete and partial stress field determinations from Desert Peak, Coso, the Fallon area and Dixie valley (Hickman et al., 2000; Hickman et al., 1998 Robertson-Tait et al., 2004; Hickman and Davatzes, 2011; Davatzes and Hickman, 2006; Blake and Davatzes 2011; Blake and Davatzes, 2012). Slip and dilation tendency for the Tuscarora geothermal field was calculated based on the faults mapped Tuscarora area (Dering, 2013). The Tuscarora area lies in the Basin and Range Province, as such we applied a normal faulting stress regime to the Tuscarora area faults, with a minimum horizontal stress direction oriented 115, based on inspection of local and regional stress determinations, as explained above. Under these stress conditions north-northeast striking, steeply dipping fault segments have the highest dilation tendency, while north-northeast striking 60 degrees dipping fault segments have the highest tendency to slip. Tuscarora is defined by a left-step in a major north- to-north northeast striking, west-dipping range-bounding normal fault system. Faults within the broad step define an anticlinal accommodation ...

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Slip and Dilation Tendency Analysis of the San Emidio Geothermal Area

Critically stressed fault segments have a relatively high likelihood of acting as fluid flow conduits (Sibson, 1994). As such, the tendency of a fault segment to slip (slip tendency; Ts; Morris et al., 1996) or to dilate (dilation tendency; Td; Ferrill et al., 1999) provides an indication of which faults or fault segments within a geothermal system are critically stressed and therefore likely to transmit geothermal fluids. The slip tendency of a surface is defined by the ratio of shear stress to normal stress on that surface: Ts = T / on (Morris et al., 1996). Dilation tendency is defined by the stress acting normal to a given surface: Td = (o1-on) / (o1-o3) (Ferrill et al., 1999). Slip and dilation were calculated using 3DStress (Southwest Research Institute). Slip and dilation tendency are both unitless ratios of the resolved stresses applied to the fault plane by ambient stress conditions. Values range from a maximum of 1, a fault plane ideally oriented to slip or dilate under ambient stress conditions to zero, a fault plane with no potential to slip or dilate. Slip and dilation tendency values were calculated for each fault in the focus study areas at, McGinness Hills, Neal Hot Springs, Patua, Salt Wells, San Emidio, and Tuscarora on fault traces. As dip is not well constrained or unknown for many faults mapped in within these we made these calculations using the dip for each fault that would yield the maximum slip tendency or dilation tendency. As such, these results should be viewed as maximum tendency of each fault to slip or dilate. The resulting along-fault and fault-to-fault variation in slip or dilation potential is a proxy for along fault and fault-to-fault variation in fluid flow conduit potential. Stress Magnitudes and directions Stress field variation within each focus area was approximated based on regional published data and the world stress database (Hickman et al., 2000; Hickman et al., 1998 Robertson-Tait et al., 2004; Hickman and Davatzes, 2010; Davatzes and Hickman, 2006; Blake and Davatzes 2011; Blake and Davatzes, 2012; Moeck et al., 2010; Moos and Ronne, 2010 and Reinecker et al., 2005) as well as local stress information if applicable. For faults within these focus systems we applied either a normal faulting stress regime where the vertical stress (sv) is larger than the maximum horizontal stress (shmax) which is larger than the minimum horizontal stress (sv>shmax>shmin) or strike-slip faulting stress regime where the maximum horizontal stress (shmax) is larger than the vertical stress (sv) which is larger than the minimum horizontal stress (shmax >sv>shmin) depending on the general tectonic province of the system. Based on visual inspection of the limited stress magnitude data in the Great Basin we used magnitudes such that shmin/shmax = .527 and shmin/sv= .46, which are consistent with complete and partial stress field determinations from Desert Peak, Coso, the Fallon area and Dixie valley (Hickman et al., 2000; Hickman et al., 1998 Robertson-Tait et al., 2004; Hickman and Davatzes, 2011; Davatzes and Hickman, 2006; Blake and Davatzes 2011; Blake and Davatzes, 2012). Slip and dilation tendency for the San Emidio geothermal field was calculated based on the faults mapped Tuscarora area (Rhodes, 2011). The San Emidio area lies in the Basin and Range Province, as such we applied a normal faulting stress regime to the San Emidio area faults, with a minimum horizontal stress direction oriented 115, based on inspection of local and regional stress determinations, as explained above. This is consistent with the shmin determined through inversion of fault data by Rhodes (2011). Under these stress conditions north-northeast striking, steeply dipping fault segments have the highest dilation tendency, while north-northeast striking 60 degrees dipping fault segments have the highest tendency to slip. Interesting, the San Emidio geothermal field lies in an area of primarily north striking faults, w...

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Slip and Dilation Tendency Analysis of the Salt Wells Geothermal Area

Critically stressed fault segments have a relatively high likelihood of acting as fluid flow conduits (Sibson, 1994). As such, the tendency of a fault segment to slip (slip tendency; Ts; Morris et al., 1996) or to dilate (dilation tendency; Td; Ferrill et al., 1999) provides an indication of which faults or fault segments within a geothermal system are critically stressed and therefore likely to transmit geothermal fluids. The slip tendency of a surface is defined by the ratio of shear stress to normal stress on that surface: Ts = T / on (Morris et al., 1996). Dilation tendency is defined by the stress acting normal to a given surface: Td = (o1-on) / (o1-o3) (Ferrill et al., 1999). Slip and dilation were calculated using 3DStress (Southwest Research Institute). Slip and dilation tendency are both unitless ratios of the resolved stresses applied to the fault plane by ambient stress conditions. Values range from a maximum of 1, a fault plane ideally oriented to slip or dilate under ambient stress conditions to zero, a fault plane with no potential to slip or dilate. Slip and dilation tendency values were calculated for each fault in the focus study areas at, McGinness Hills, Neal Hot Springs, Patua, Salt Wells, San Emidio, and Tuscarora on fault traces. As dip is not well constrained or unknown for many faults mapped in within these we made these calculations using the dip for each fault that would yield the maximum slip tendency or dilation tendency. As such, these results should be viewed as maximum tendency of each fault to slip or dilate. The resulting along-fault and fault-to-fault variation in slip or dilation potential is a proxy for along fault and fault-to-fault variation in fluid flow conduit potential. Stress Magnitudes and directions Stress field variation within each focus area was approximated based on regional published data and the world stress database (Hickman et al., 2000; Hickman et al., 1998 Robertson-Tait et al., 2004; Hickman and Davatzes, 2010; Davatzes and Hickman, 2006; Blake and Davatzes 2011; Blake and Davatzes, 2012; Moeck et al., 2010; Moos and Ronne, 2010 and Reinecker et al., 2005) as well as local stress information if applicable. For faults within these focus systems we applied either a normal faulting stress regime where the vertical stress (sv) is larger than the maximum horizontal stress (shmax) which is larger than the minimum horizontal stress (sv>shmax>shmin) or strike-slip faulting stress regime where the maximum horizontal stress (shmax) is larger than the vertical stress (sv) which is larger than the minimum horizontal stress (shmax >sv>shmin) depending on the general tectonic province of the system. Based on visual inspection of the limited stress magnitude data in the Great Basin we used magnitudes such that shmin/shmax = .527 and shmin/sv= .46, which are consistent with complete and partial stress field determinations from Desert Peak, Coso, the Fallon area and Dixie valley (Hickman et al., 2000; Hickman et al., 1998 Robertson-Tait et al., 2004; Hickman and Davatzes, 2011; Davatzes and Hickman, 2006; Blake and Davatzes 2011; Blake and Davatzes, 2012). Slip and dilation tendency for the Salt Wells geothermal field was calculated based on the faults mapped in the Bunejug Mountains quadrangle (Hinz et al., 2011). The Salt Wells area lies in the Basin and Range Province (N. Hinz personal comm.) As such we applied a normal faulting stress regime to the Salt Wells area faults, with a minimum horizontal stress direction oriented 105, based on inspection of local and regional stress determinations. Under these stress conditions north-northeast striking, steeply dipping fault segments have the highest dilation tendency, while north-northeast striking 60 degrees dipping fault segments have the highest tendency to slip. Several such faults intersect in high density in the core of the accommodation zone in the Bunejug Mountains and local to the Salt Wells geothermal .

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Slip and Dilation Tendency Analysis of the Patua Geothermal Area

Critically stressed fault segments have a relatively high likelihood of acting as fluid flow conduits (Sibson, 1994). As such, the tendency of a fault segment to slip (slip tendency; Ts; Morris et al., 1996) or to dilate (dilation tendency; Td; Ferrill et al., 1999) provides an indication of which faults or fault segments within a geothermal system are critically stressed and therefore likely to transmit geothermal fluids. The slip tendency of a surface is defined by the ratio of shear stress to normal stress on that surface: Ts = T / on (Morris et al., 1996). Dilation tendency is defined by the stress acting normal to a given surface: Td = (o1-on) / (o1-o3) (Ferrill et al., 1999). Slip and dilation were calculated using 3DStress (Southwest Research Institute). Slip and dilation tendency are both unitless ratios of the resolved stresses applied to the fault plane by ambient stress conditions. Values range from a maximum of 1, a fault plane ideally oriented to slip or dilate under ambient stress conditions to zero, a fault plane with no potential to slip or dilate. Slip and dilation tendency values were calculated for each fault in the focus study areas at, McGinness Hills, Neal Hot Springs, Patua, Salt Wells, San Emidio, and Tuscarora on fault traces. As dip is not well constrained or unknown for many faults mapped in within these we made these calculations using the dip for each fault that would yield the maximum slip tendency or dilation tendency. As such, these results should be viewed as maximum tendency of each fault to slip or dilate. The resulting along-fault and fault-to-fault variation in slip or dilation potential is a proxy for along fault and fault-to-fault variation in fluid flow conduit potential. Stress Magnitudes and directions Stress field variation within each focus area was approximated based on regional published data and the world stress database (Hickman et al., 2000; Hickman et al., 1998 Robertson-Tait et al., 2004; Hickman and Davatzes, 2010; Davatzes and Hickman, 2006; Blake and Davatzes 2011; Blake and Davatzes, 2012; Moeck et al., 2010; Moos and Ronne, 2010 and Reinecker et al., 2005) as well as local stress information if applicable. For faults within these focus systems we applied either a normal faulting stress regime where the vertical stress (sv) is larger than the maximum horizontal stress (shmax) which is larger than the minimum horizontal stress (sv>shmax>shmin) or strike-slip faulting stress regime where the maximum horizontal stress (shmax) is larger than the vertical stress (sv) which is larger than the minimum horizontal stress (shmax >sv>shmin) depending on the general tectonic province of the system. Based on visual inspection of the limited stress magnitude data in the Great Basin we used magnitudes such that shmin/shmax = .527 and shmin/sv= .46, which are consistent with complete and partial stress field determinations from Desert Peak, Coso, the Fallon area and Dixie valley (Hickman et al., 2000; Hickman et al., 1998 Robertson-Tait et al., 2004; Hickman and Davatzes, 2011; Davatzes and Hickman, 2006; Blake and Davatzes 2011; Blake and Davatzes, 2012). Slip and dilation tendency analysis for the Patua geothermal system was calculated based on faults mapped in the Hazen Quadrangle (Faulds et al., 2011). Patua lies near the margin between the Basin and Range province, which is characterized by west-northwest directed extension and the Walker Lane province, characterized by west-northwest directed dextral shear. As such, the Patua area likely has been affected by tectonic stress associated with either or both of stress regimes over geologic time. In order to characterize this stress variation we calculated slip tendency at Patua for both normal faulting and strike slip faulting stress regimes. Based on examination of regional and local stress data (as explained above) we applied at shmin direction of 105 to Patua. Whether the vertical stress (sv) magnitude is larger than th...

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Slip and Dilation Tendency Analysis of McGinness Hills Geothermal Area

Slip and Dilation Tendency in focus areas Critically stressed fault segments have a relatively high likelihood of acting as fluid flow conduits (Sibson, 1994). As such, the tendency of a fault segment to slip (slip tendency; Ts; Morris et al., 1996) or to dilate (dilation tendency; Td; Ferrill et al., 1999) provides an indication of which faults or fault segments within a geothermal system are critically stressed and therefore likely to transmit geothermal fluids. The slip tendency of a surface is defined by the ratio of shear stress to normal stress on that surface: Ts = T / on (Morris et al., 1996). Dilation tendency is defined by the stress acting normal to a given surface: Td = (o1-on) / (o1-o3) (Ferrill et al., 1999). Slip and dilation were calculated using 3DStress (Southwest Research Institute). Slip and dilation tendency are both unitless ratios of the resolved stresses applied to the fault plane by ambient stress conditions. Values range from a maximum of 1, a fault plane ideally oriented to slip or dilate under ambient stress conditions to zero, a fault plane with no potential to slip or dilate. Slip and dilation tendency values were calculated for each fault in the focus study areas at, McGinness Hills, Neal Hot Springs, Patua, Salt Wells, San Emidio, and Tuscarora on fault traces. As dip is not well constrained or unknown for many faults mapped in within these we made these calculations using the dip for each fault that would yield the maximum slip tendency or dilation tendency. As such, these results should be viewed as maximum tendency of each fault to slip or dilate. The resulting along-fault and fault-to-fault variation in slip or dilation potential is a proxy for along fault and fault-to-fault variation in fluid flow conduit potential. Stress Magnitudes and directions Stress field variation within each focus area was approximated based on regional published data and the world stress database (Hickman et al., 2000; Hickman et al., 1998 Robertson-Tait et al., 2004; Hickman and Davatzes, 2010; Davatzes and Hickman, 2006; Blake and Davatzes 2011; Blake and Davatzes, 2012; Moeck et al., 2010; Moos and Ronne, 2010 and Reinecker et al., 2005) as well as local stress information if applicable. For faults within these focus systems we applied either a normal faulting stress regime where the vertical stress (sv) is larger than the maximum horizontal stress (shmax) which is larger than the minimum horizontal stress (sv>shmax>shmin) or strike-slip faulting stress regime where the maximum horizontal stress (shmax) is larger than the vertical stress (sv) which is larger than the minimum horizontal stress (shmax >sv>shmin) depending on the general tectonic province of the system. Based on visual inspection of the limited stress magnitude data in the Great Basin we used magnitudes such that shmin/shmax = .527 and shmin/sv= .46, which are consistent with complete and partial stress field determinations from Desert Peak, Coso, the Fallon area and Dixie valley (Hickman et al., 2000; Hickman et al., 1998 Robertson-Tait et al., 2004; Hickman and Davatzes, 2011; Davatzes and Hickman, 2006; Blake and Davatzes 2011; Blake and Davatzes, 2012). Slip and dilation tendency for the McGinness Hills geothermal field was calculated based on the faults mapped McGinness Hills area (Siler 2012, unpublished). The McGinness Hills area lies in the Basin and Range Province, as such we applied a normal faulting stress regime to the McGinness area faults, with a minimum horizontal stress direction oriented 115, based on inspection of local and regional stress determinations, as explained above. Under these stress conditions north-northeast striking, steeply dipping fault segments have the highest dilation tendency, while north-northeast striking 60 degrees dipping fault segments have the highest tendency to slip. The McGinness Hills geothermal system is characterized by a left-step in a north-northeast striking west-dipping fault system...

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Integrated Geologic Storage Prefeasibility Study Proximal to Dry Fork Power Station, Powder River Basin, Wyoming

The pre-feasibility study—funded by the Department of Energy CarbonSAFE program (DE-FE0029375)—is centred around Basin Electric’s Dry Fork Station (DFS) in Wyoming’s Powder River Basin. Dry Fork Station, completed in 2011, is a high efficient coal-fired power plant that emits 3.3 million tons of CO2 per annum. The DFS site also host’s the Wyoming Integrated Test Center (ITC) funded by a $15 million investment by the State of Wyoming. The ITC is a public-private partnership test bed for CCS technologies. Geologic storage sites are in immediate vicinity of the DFS providing significant opportunities for co-located source and saline storage. The Powder River Basin (PRB) of Wyoming and Montana, was identified by NETL (2010) as having a “high potential” for commercial-scale carbon sequestration. The basin contains as much as 17,000 feet of sedimentary rock and covers an area of approximately 24,000 square miles. The PRB has a long history of hydrocarbon production and remaining undiscovered reserves. Accumulations and production of hydrocarbons in the basin indicate the presence of reservoir formations with significant pore volumes and impermeable sealing formations. This attribute alone suggests the reservoir and seal characteristics of the formations provide significant opportunities for CO₂ storage in saline reservoirs. Four high quality potential reservoir and sealing complexes have been identified for geologic storage. These formations range in depth from 6,500-9,500 feet underneath DFS including: (1) the Pennsylvanian Minnelusa Formation reservoir and Permian Goose Egg Formation (Opeche Shale) seal; (2) the Jurassic Hulett and Canyon Springs Sandstones of the Sundance Formation sealed by the Late Jurassic Upper Sundance Member and Morrison Formation and (3) the Early Cretaceous Lakota and Dakota, and Muddy Formation reservoirs sealed by the Mowry Shale. The preliminary reservoir characterization results integrate data from petrophysical well logs, core measurements, faults/fractures analysis, artificial penetrations, and published literature to evaluate geologic storage capacity and potential risk, for the Powder River Basin. These reservoir and seal combinations reside within ideal depth constraints and show suitable reservoir and seal characteristics conducive to commercial-scale storage. Specifically, this paper presents 1) high level description of the geologic storage complex 2) a first order risk analysis associated with pre-existing oil and gas wells, and 3) preliminary storage capacity and Area of Review estimates.

Quillinan, Scott↗