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At least 181 records · Page 10

Integrated Model of Models for Global Flood Alerting

A dramatic increase in frequency of minor to major flooding since 2000 has caused significant economic losses across the world. To mitigate and recover from these losses, actions have been taken to build resilient communities and infrastructures, specifically, by providing situational awareness in near real-time about flood impacts to enhance response and recovery efforts. Several hydrologic and hydraulic flood models are available at various spatial and temporal resolutions to forecast flood events at regional to global scale. Given the global coverage of two operational flood models – GloFAS (Global Flood Awareness System) and GFMS (Global Flood Monitoring System), the purpose of this project is to implement a Model of Models (MoM) approach to integrate the outputs from these two models to classify flood severity at watershed level worldwide, and send alerts based on severity similar to the USGS PAGER (used for severity alerting and impact analysis for earthquakes) to flood impacted communities. The alerts containing flood impacts and severity information will be disseminated through the DisasterAWARE platform, operated by the Pacific Disaster Center (PDC), that provides global multi-hazard alerting and Situational Awareness information to the emergency management community and public. The current version of the MoM approach was implemented for a case study flood event that occurred during January and February of 2020 in South and Central Africa. The findings of the case study event reveal that the approach is effective in identifying potential flood impact areas and the spatio-temporal variation of flood severity, flood depth and extent at watershed level, which will be used to assess infrastructure and societal impacts using earth-observation data and for alerting.

Kar, Bandana↗

O'Hare Airport roadway traffic prediction via data fusion and Gaussian process regression

This study proposes an approach of leveraging information gathered from multiple traffic data sources at different resolutions to obtain approximate inference on the traffic distribution of Chicago's O'Hare Airport area. Specifically, it proposes the ingestion of traffic datasets at different resolutions to build spatiotemporal models for predicting the distribution of traffic volume on the road network. Due to its good adaptability and flexibility for spatiotemporal data, the Gaussian process (GP) regression was employed to provide short-term forecasts using data collected by loop detectors (sensors) and supplemented by telematics data. The GP regression is used to make predictions of the distribution of the proportion of sensor data traffic volume represented by the telematics data for each location of the sensors. Consequently, the fitted GP model can be used to determine the approximate traffic distribution for a testing location outside of the training points. Policymakers in the transportation sector can find the results of this work helpful for making informed decisions relating to current and future transportation conditions in the area.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Microdiverse bacterial clades prevail across Antarctic wetlands

Antarctica's extreme environmental conditions impose selection pressures on microbial communities. Indeed, a previous study revealed that bacterial assemblages at the Cierva Point Wetland Complex (CPWC) are shaped by strong homogeneous selection. Yet which bacterial phylogenetic clades are shaped by selection processes and their ecological strategies to thrive in such extreme conditions remain unknown. Here, we applied the phyloscore and feature-level βNTI indexes coupled with phylofactorization to successfully detect bacterial monophyletic clades subjected to homogeneous (HoS) and heterogenous (HeS) selection. Remarkably, only the HoS clades showed high relative abundance across all samples and signs of putative microdiversity. The majority of the amplicon sequence variants (ASVs) within each HoS clade clustered into a unique 97% sequence similarity operational taxonomic unit (OTU) and inhabited a specific environment (lotic, lentic or terrestrial). Our findings suggest the existence of microdiversification leading to sub-taxa niche differentiation, with putative distinct ecotypes (consisting of groups of ASVs) adapted to a specific environment. We hypothesize that HoS clades thriving in the CPWC have phylogenetically conserved traits that accelerate their rate of evolution, enabling them to adapt to strong spatio-temporally variable selection pressures. Variable selection appears to operate within clades to cause very rapid microdiversification without losing key traits that lead to high abundance. Variable and homogeneous selection, therefore, operate simultaneously but on different aspects of organismal ecology. The result is an overall signal of homogeneous selection due to rapid within-clade microdiversification caused by variable selection. It is unknown whether other systems experience this dynamic, and we encourage future work evaluating the transferability of our results.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A comparison of model validation approaches for echo state networks using climate model replicates

As global temperatures continue to rise, climate mitigation strategies such as stratospheric aerosol injections (SAI) are increasingly discussed, but the downstream effects of these strategies are not well understood. As such, there is interest in developing statistical methods to quantify the evolution of climate variable relationships during the time period surrounding an SAI. Feature importance applied to echo state network (ESN) models has been proposed as a way to understand the effects of SAI using a data-driven model. This approach depends on the ESN fitting the data well. If not, the feature importance may place importance on features that are not representative of the underlying relationships. Typically, time series prediction models such as ESNs are assessed using out-of-sample performance metrics that divide the times series into separate training and testing sets. However, this model assessment approach is geared towards forecasting applications and not scenarios such as the motivating SAI example where the objective is using a data driven model to capture variable relationships. Here, in this paper, we demonstrate a novel use of climate model replicates to investigate the applicability of the commonly used repeated hold-out model assessment approach for the SAI application. Simulations of an SAI are generated using a simplified climate model, and different initialization conditions are used to provide independent training and testing sets containing the same SAI event. The climate model replicates enable out-of-sample measures of model performance, which are compared to the single time series hold-out validation approach. For our case study, it is found that the repeated hold-out sample performance is comparable, but conservative, to the replicate out-of-sample performance when the training set contains enough time after the aerosol injection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A multi-scale time-series dataset with benchmark for machine learning in decarbonized energy grids

The electric grid is a key enabling infrastructure for the ambitious transition towards carbon neutrality as we grapple with climate change. With deepening penetration of renewable resources, the reliable operation of the electric grid becomes increasingly challenging. In this paper, we present PSML, a first-of-its-kind open-access multi-scale time-series dataset, to aid in the development of data-driven machine learning (ML)-based approaches towards reliable operation of future electric grids. The dataset is synthesized from a joint transmission and distribution electric grid to capture the increasingly important interactions and uncertainties of the grid dynamics, containing power, voltage and current measurements over multiple spatio-temporal scales. Using PSML, we provide state-of-the-art ML benchmarks on three challenging use cases of critical importance to achieve: (i) early detection, accurate classification and localization of dynamic disturbances; (ii) robust hierarchical forecasting of load and renewable energy; and (iii) realistic synthetic generation of physical-law-constrained measurements. We envision that this dataset will provide use-inspired ML research in safety-critical systems, while simultaneously enabling ML researchers to contribute towards decarbonization of energy sectors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A deep learning-based direct forecasting of CO 2 plume migration

Accurate and timely forecasts of CO 2 plume evolution in geological reservoirs are crucial for CO 2 migration detection, leakage risk assessment, and operation decision support. Conventional forecasting usually adopts a two-step strategy, first calibrating reservoir model parameters against observations using iterative inverse modeling (or history matching) and then applying the calibrated model for predictions. This method impedes real-time forecasts due to the heavy computational demand in inverse modeling and may suffer from poor prediction accuracy because of the limited observation data. In this work, we propose a deep learning-based latent space mapping framework to forecast CO 2 plume migration directly by avoiding the inverse modeling. We first use the convolutional autoencoder to map the high-dimensional complex plume extents onto low-dimensional latent space. Next, we use neural networks to learn the relationship between the observation variables and the prediction latent variables. And then for given observation data, we infer the prediction values directly. This one-step direct forecasting is computationally efficient which requires a few number of parallelizable reservoir simulations and it can provide accurate predictions with limited observations by learning the observation-prediction relationship in the reduced dimension. Therefore, our proposed method enables an in-time forecast of dynamic CO 2 plume distributions. In this work, we demonstrate the effectiveness and accuracy of our method in predicting the CO 2 plume migration using four metrics such as plume area, centroid movement distance, and plume spreading in the primary and secondary directions. And the spatio-temporal evolution patterns of plume migration under diverse geological complexities are also accurately quantified.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Dimensionality effects on multicomponent ionic transport and surface complexation in porous media

Coulombic interactions between charged species in pore water and at surface/solution interfaces are of pivotal importance for multicomponent reactive transport in porous media. In this study, we investigate the impact of domain dimensionality on electrostatically coupled dispersion and surface-solution reactions during transport of acidic plumes and major ions in porous media. Column and quasi two-dimensional flow-through experiments were performed, with identical silica porous media and under the same advection-dominated conditions. Equal mass fluxes of different electrolyte solutions (i.e., HCl - pH ~ 2.8, NaBr - 100 mM, HCl - pH ~ 2.8 plus NaBr - 100 mM) were continuously injected in the 1-D and 2-D experiments and breakthrough curves of pH and major ions were measured at the outlet of the domains. The presence of pronounced ionic strength gradients in the transverse direction in the 2-D setup caused distinct retardation and transport behaviors of protons and major ions which were not observed in the one-dimensional column experiments. Furthermore, in the cases of salt electrolytes injection, considerably enhanced release of H + (>61%) from the quartz surface was observed in the multidimensional system compared to the one-dimensional setup. Reactive transport modeling was performed to reproduce the experimental outcomes and to analyse the coupling between transport processes, based on the Nernst-Planck formulation of diffusive/dispersive fluxes and on surface complexation reactions at the solid-solution interface. Electrostatic interactions between Na + , B – , and H + , and deprotonation of the quartz surface upon the formation of sodium outer-sphere complexes, are the primary controllers of the spatial and temporal features displayed by the pH and major ions measurements. The reactive transport simulations allowed us to interpret the experimental observations, to visualize the distribution and spatio-temporal evolution of dissolved and solid species, to identify a spatially heterogeneous zonation of Coulombic interactions with distinct behavior at the fringe and core of the injected plumes in the multidimensional setup, and to quantify the different components of the Nerst-Planck fluxes of the charged solutes. This study demonstrates that the domain dimensionality directly affects electrostatic interactions between charged aqueous species in the pore water and surface complexation reactions at the solid-solution interface. The non-trivial effects of dimensionality on multicomponent ionic transport result in a significantly different behavior in 1-D and 2-D systems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

GeoAI for Public Health

Infectious disease spread within the human population can be conceptualized as a complex system composed of individuals who interact and transmit viruses through spatio-temporal processes that manifest across and between scales. The complexity of this system ultimately means that the spread of infectious diseases is difficult to understand, predict, and respond to effectively. Research interest in GeoAI for public health has been fueled by the increased availability of rich data sources such as human mobility data, OpenStreetMap data, contact tracing data, symptomatic online surveys, retail and commerce data, genomics data, and more. This data availability has resulted in a wide variety of data-driven solutions for infectious disease spread prediction which show potential in enhancing our forecasting capabilities. This chapter (1) motivates the need for AI-based solutions in public health by showing the heterogeneity of human behavior related to health, (2) provides a brief survey of current state-of-the-art solutions using AI for infectious disease spread prediction, (3) describes a use-case of using large-scale human mobility data to inform AI models for the prediction of infectious disease spread in a city, and (4) provides future research directions and ideas.

Zufle, Andreas↗

Ion temperature and rotation fluctuation measurements with ultra-fast charge exchange recombination spectroscopy (UF-CHERS) in the DIII-D tokamak

An upgraded detector and several optimizations have significantly improved the Ultra-Fast Charge Exchange Recombination Spectroscopy (UF-CHERS) diagnostic sensitivity to ion temperature and parallel velocity fluctuations at turbulence relevant spatio-temporal scales. Normalized broadband ion temperature and parallel velocity fluctuations down to x̃x∼1% (x = Ti, v∥) and up to ∼450 kHz have been measured in a variety of plasmas. The multi-field nature of the CHERS technique also allows measurements of the cross-phase angles of the fluctuating fields. UF-CHERS is optimized to observe emissions from the electron exchange reaction between intrinsic C6+ and hydrogenic neutral beam injected particles near 529 nm. UF-CHERS consists of two chords separated by ∼1 cm radially, less than the turbulence correlation length in DIII-D plasmas, which enables correlated measurements to suppress incoherent electronic and photon noise. The optical components of the spectrometer include a volume-phase-holographic grating with >90% transmission between 528 and 530 nm and f/2 200-mm lenses, selected to maximize the optical efficiency and photon flux. Diffracted light from each chord is collected in eight spectral bins, each with a bandwidth of ∼0.25 nm, and detected and amplified by chilled avalanche photodiodes and custom high-gain, wide bandwidth low-noise preamplifiers to achieve the optimal signal-to-noise ratio. The resulting signals are digitized at 1 MHz, 103–104× faster than the conventional CHERS diagnostics. Spatial coverage is achieved by repositioning a motorized fiber tray between plasmas. UF-CHERS measurements will advance the understanding of turbulent ion transport and contribute to the validation of transport models and simulations.

Truong, D. D. (ORCID:0000000285732539)↗

Vibronic exciton model for low bandgap donor–acceptor polymers

In this study, a vibronic exciton model is introduced to describe the excited state band structure and associated absorption spectra of low bandgap donor–acceptor conjugated polymers. The Hamiltonian is represented in a diabatic basis consisting of Frenkel-like donor and acceptor fragment excitations as well as charge-transfer (CT) excitations between neighboring fragments. States are coupled to each other through electron and hole transfer as well as Coulombically, through interacting fragment transition dipole moments. Local vibronic coupling involving the prominent aromatic-quinoidal vibrational mode, which is responsible for pronounced vibronic progressions in most conjugated oligomers and polymers, is also included. The DAD repeat unit is shown to behave like a J-aggregate trimer, driven by both the sizable in-phase electron and hole transfer integrals between donor and acceptor fragments as well as negative Coulomb coupling between donor and acceptor fragment excitations. The J-aggregate behavior is enhanced in the polymer limit through inter-repeat unit coupling, with the 0–0 vibronic peak significantly enhanced in the lowest-energy near-IR band. In addition, the radiative rate is enhanced by the number of coherently connected repeat units. The near-IR band is shown to possess roughly equal admixtures of CT and Frenkel-like excitations. Applications are made to the polymer PffBT4T-2DT, with the simulated absorption spectrum quantitatively capturing the salient features of the measured spectrum.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Statistical framework to assess long-term spatio-temporal climate changes: East River mountainous watershed case study

Abstract Evaluation of long-term temporal and spatial climatic change in mountainous regions is a critical challenge because of the interactive effects of multiple land and climatic factors and processes. Here we present the application of the statistical framework to the assessment of changes of climatic conditions, using data from 17 meteorological stations across the East River watershed near Crested Butte, Colorado, USA, and spanning the period from 1966 to 2021. The framework is developed based on (1) a time-series analysis of daily, monthly, and yearly averaged meteorological parameters (temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, wind speed, etc.), (2) evaluation and time series analysis of potential evapotranspiration (ET o ), actual evapotranspiration (ET), aridity index (AI), standard precipitation index (SPI) and standard precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI), and (3) a temporal-spatial climatic zonation of the studied area based on the hierarchical clustering and PCA analysis of the SPEI, because the SPEI can be considered an integrative characteristic of the changes of climatic conditions. The Budyko model, with the application of the Penman–Monteith equation for the estimation of ET o , was used to determine the ET. The time series analysis of the AI is used to identify the periods with energy limited and water limited conditions. Hierarchical clustering of site locations for the three temporal segments of the SPEI showed a significant temporal-spatial shifts, indicating that dynamic climatic processes drive zonation patterns. Therefore, the watershed climatic zonation requires periodic re-evaluation based on the structural time series analysis of meteorological and water balance data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Multiresolution convolutional autoencoders

Herein we propose a multi-resolution convolutional autoencoder (MrCAE) architecture that integrates and leverages three highly successful mathematical architectures: (i) multigrid methods, (ii) convolutional autoencoders and (iii) transfer learning. The method provides an adaptive, hierarchical architecture that capitalizes on a progressive training approach for multiscale spatio-temporal data. This framework allows for inputs across multiple scales: starting from a compact (small number of weights) network architecture and low-resolution data, our network progressively deepens and widens itself in a principled manner to encode new information in the higher resolution data based on its current performance of reconstruction. Basic transfer learning techniques are applied to ensure information learned from previous training steps can be rapidly transferred to the larger network. As a result, the network can dynamically capture different scaled features at different depths of the network. The performance gains of this adaptive multiscale architecture are illustrated through a sequence of numerical experiments on synthetic examples and real-world spatial-temporal data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A regularized-interface method as a unified formulation for simulations of high-pressure multiphase flows

The injection of multi-species fluids into high-pressure and high-temperature environments beyond the species' critical points is commonly found in engineering applications. At these conditions, for immiscible species, both subcritical interfacial dynamics and supercritical mixing can coexist due to variations in temperature around the mixture critical point. The modeling of these complex transcritical phenomena for large-scale configurations is so far not possible. To address this issue, we propose the Regularized-Interface Method (RIM) as a unified formulation that can describe both sub- and supercritical processes as well as the transition between them. The proposed method is derived via filtering of the nanoscale interface-resolving formulation based on van der Waals' linear gradient theory. Thus, this approach allows for the consistent modeling of interfacial dynamics that vanishes at supercritical conditions, while significantly reducing the temporal and spatial resolution constraints of the original nanoscale formulation. The resulting RIM formulation is examined in interface-capturing simulations of sub-, trans-, and supercritical fuel injection processes, involving droplets and jets. Furthermore, these results highlight the importance of resolving spatio-temporal transitions from subcritical interfacial dynamics to supercritical mixing in high-pressure multiphase simulations, in contrast to commonly employed diffused-interface methods, where interfacial dynamics are often neglected.

Interface capturing↗

Congo Basin Water Balance and Terrestrial Fluxes Inferred From Satellite Observations of the Isotopic Composition of Water Vapor

Large spatio-temporal gradients in the Congo basin vegetation and rainfall are observed. However, its water-balance (evapotranspiration minus precipitation, or ET - P) is typically measured at basin-scales, limited primarily by river-discharge data, spatial resolution of terrestrial water storage measurements, and poorly constrained ET. We use observations of the isotopic composition of water vapor to quantify the spatio-temporal variability of net surface water fluxes across the Congo Basin between 2003 and 2018. These data are calibrated at basin scale using satellite gravity and total Congo river discharge measurements and then used to estimate time-varying ET - P over four quadrants representing the Congo Basin, providing first estimates of this kind for the region. We find that the multi-year record, seasonality, and interannual variability of ET - P from both the isotopes and the gravity/river discharge based estimates are consistent. Additionally, we use precipitation and gravity-based estimates with our water vapor isotope-based ET - P to calculate time and space averaged ET and net river discharge within the Congo Basin. These quadrant-scale moisture flux estimates indicate (a) substantial recycling of moisture in the Congo Basin (temporally and spatially averaged ET/P > 70%), consistent with models and visible light-based ET estimates, and (b) net river outflow is largest in the Western Congo where there are more rivers and higher flow rates. Our results confirm the importance of ET in modulating the Congo water cycle relative to other water sources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Unsupervised Clustering of Microseismic Events and Focal Mechanism Analysis at the CO 2 Injection Site in Decatur, Illinois

Characterization of induced microseismicity at a carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) storage site is critical for preserving reservoir integrity and mitigating seismic hazards. We apply a multilevel machine learning (ML) approach that combines the nonnegative matrix factorization and hidden Markov model to extract spectral representations of microseismic events and cluster them to identify seismic patterns at the Illinois Basin-Decatur Project. Unlike traditional waveform correlation methods, this approach leverages spectral characteristics of first arrivals to improve event classification and detect previously undetected planes of weakness. By integrating ML-based clustering with focal mechanism analysis, we resolve small-scale fault structures that are below the detection limits of conventional seismic imaging. Our findings reveal temporal bursts of microseismicity associated with brittle failure, providing insights into the spatio-temporal evolution of fault reactivation during CO 2 injection. This approach enhances seismic monitoring capabilities at CO 2 injection sites by improving fault characterization beyond the resolution of standard geophysical surveys.

Willis, Rachel Marie [Sandia National Laboratories↗

Bayesian Physics Informed Spatio-Temporal Network for Streamflow Data Imputation

Reliable reconstruction of incomplete streamflow records is critical for improving hydrological forecasting, flood preparedness, and water resource management. However, large observational gaps and uncertainties in governing physical parameters limit the accuracy of traditional statistical and machinelearning imputation frameworks. To address these challenges, we develop a Bayesian Physics-Informed Spatio-Temporal Network (BPI-STNet) that jointly captures spatial and temporal dependencies while enforcing hydrologic consistency through embedded physical constraints. The framework integrates a GraphSAGE-LSTM architecture to model spatial connectivity across gauges and temporal flow dynamics, coupled with a Bayesian update mechanism to estimate uncertain parameters in a simplified water-balance framework. Unlike conventional physics-informed networks that rely on sampling-based posterior estimation, BPI-STNet derives an analytic solution to the inverse problem, allowing closed-form Bayesian updates of uncertain parameters Λ={α,β,k} using Gaussian priors and likelihoods. Applied to daily observations from the Susquehanna River Basin (1980-2022), BPI-STNet achieves substantial improvements over a purely data-driven RGNN baseline, which reduced RMSE by 23 % and MAE by 9 %, and achieving an average NSE values up to 0.96. The results demonstrate that coupling Bayesian inference with physics-informed learning yields physically consistent, uncertainty-aware reconstructions that preserve the temporal persistence and statistical distribution of observed flows. The proposed framework establishes a generalizable paradigm for data-sparse hydrologic systems where both data fidelity and physical interpretability are essential.

Krishnan Kutty Ambika, Anukesh [ORNL] (ORCID:00000↗

Self-Supervised T-GCN for Detection of Disturbance and Propagation in Power Grid

Urban power systems increasingly rely on dense sensing to monitor grid reliability, yet disturbance labels are scarce and events are rare. We present a self-supervised spatio-temporal method that detects, localizes, and characterizes grid frequency disturbances across urban areas using only unlabeled data. Our approach trains a tiny Temporal Graph Convolutional Network (T-GCN) to forecast per-site frequency residuals (deviation from 60 Hz). The sensor graph is constructed directly from signals using pre-event Pearson correlation with a cross-correlation lag penalty without geocoding. At inference, node-level anomalies are the model's forecast errors; region-level alarms arise from connected components of high-score nodes. We estimate disturbance propagation by computing per-node arrival times (first persistent exceedance), then fit a planar or time-of-arrival model to obtain direction, speed, and an epicenter proxy. With only three real events collected at decisecond resolution across U.S. cities, we evaluate the T-GCN and report time-to-detect, footprint size, and propagation consistency. We further show that short-window embeddings from the T-GCN's hidden states enable few-shot event-vs-background recognition via a simple prototypical classifier. Despite minimal data and no labels, our system yields fast, spatially coherent detection and interpretable propagation maps, offering a practical, lightweight pathway to city-scale grid resilience analytics.

Niu, Haoran [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000155228297)↗

SMART Deliverable 6.1.2a: Application of the ORION tool to the IBDP Carbon Storage Site

Forecasting and managing potential induced seismic activity is one of the challenges facing commercialscale geologic carbon sequestration (GCS), as well as other geologic energy extraction and byproduct disposal technologies. Historically, the process to develop robust, science-based forecasts of induced seismicity has required an integrated effort from experts in seismology, geomechanics, and reservoir engineering to manage data, develop and evaluate models of subsurface processes, and to calibrate and interpret the results from a range of models to understand site behavior relative to prescribed standards and in the context of uncertainty in geologic characterization data, forecasting models, and operational scenario uncertainty. The Operational Forecasting of Induced Seismicity (ORION) toolkit is an open-source, observation-based forecasting toolkit that is being co-developed by two U.S. DOE-funded initiatives: the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) and the Scienceinformed Machine Learning for Accelerating Real Time Decisions in Subsurface Applications (SMART) Initiative. ORION is designed to provide functionality to support decision making about seismic hazard analysis and risk management for GCS stakeholders ranging from the public to site operators to expert seismologists. The tool, which is written as open-source code in the Python programming language, is composed of a desktop graphical user interface (GUI) and an underlying forecasting engine. The forecasting engine uses available reservoir properties, well and fluid injection scenario details, and observed seismic catalog data as inputs to produce a set of temporal and spatio-temporal seismic forecasts.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗