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At least 181 records · Page 10

Development, Implementation, and Verification of Partially-Ionized Collisional Multifluid Plasma Models in Drekar

We consider the development of multifluid models for partially ionized multispecies plasmas. The models are composed of a standard set of five-moment fluid equations for each species plus a description of electromagnetics. The most general model considered utilizes a full set of fluid equations for each charge state of each atomic species, plus a set of fluid equations for electrons. The fluid equations are coupled through source terms describing electromagnetic coupling, ionization, recombination, charge exchange, and elastic scattering collisions in the low-density coronal limit. The form of each of these source terms is described in detail, and references for required rate coefficients are identified for a diverse range of atomic species. Initial efforts have been made to extend these models to incorporate some higher-density collisional effects, including ionization potential depression and three- body recombination. Some reductions of the general multifluid model are considered. First, a reduced multifluid model is derived which averages over all of the charge states (including neutrals) of each atomic species in the general multifluid model. The resulting model maintains full consistency with the general multifluid model from which it is derived by leveraging a quasi-steady-state collisional ionization equilibrium assumption to recover the ionization fractions required to make use of the general collision models. Further reductions are briefly considered to derive certain components of a single-fluid magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) model. In this case, a generalized Ohm's law is obtained, and the standard MHD resistivity is expressed in terms of the collisional models used in the general multifluid model. A number of numerical considerations required to obtain robust implementations of these multifluid models are discussed. First, an algebraic flux correction (AFC) stabilization approach for a continuous Galerkin finite element discretization of the multifluid system is described in which the characteristic speeds used in the stabilization of the fluid systems are synchronized across all species in the model. It is demonstrated that this synchronization is crucial in order to obtain a robust discretization of the multifluid system. Additionally, several different formulations are considered for describing the electromagnetics portion of the multifluid system using nodal continuous Galerkin finite element discretizations. The formulations considered include a parabolic divergence cleaning method and an implicit projection method for the traditional curl formulation of Maxwell's equations, a purely- hyperbolic potential-based formulation of Maxwell's equations, and a mixed hyperbolic-elliptic potential-based formulation of Maxwell's equations. Some advantages and disadvantages of each formulation are explored to compare solution robustness and the ease of use of each formulation. Numerical results are presented to demonstrate the accuracy and robustness of various components of our implementation. Analytic solutions for a spatially homogeneous damped plasma oscillation are derived in order to verify the implementation of the source terms for electromagnetic coupling and elastic collisions between fluid species. Ionization balance as a function of electron temperature is evaluated for several atomic species of interest by comparing to steady-state calculations using various sets of ionization and recombination rate coefficients. Several test problems in one and two spatial dimensions are used to demonstrate the accuracy and robustness of the discretization and stabilization approach for the fluid components of the multifluid system. This includes standard test problems for electrostatic and electromagnetic shock tubes in the two-fluid and ideal shock-MHD limits, a cylindrical diocotron instability, and the GEM challenge magnetic reconnection problem. A one-dimensional simplified prototype of an argon gas puff configuration as deployed on Sandia's Z-machine is used as a demonstration to exercise the full range of capabilities associated with the general multifluid model.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Local-scale heterogeneity of soil thermal dynamics and controlling factors in a discontinuous permafrost region

In permafrost regions, the strong spatial and temporal variability in soil temperature cannot be explained by the weather forcing only. Understanding the local heterogeneity of soil thermal dynamics and their controls is essential to understand how permafrost systems respond to climate change and to develop process-based models or remote sensing products for predicting soil temperature. In this study, we analyzed soil temperature dynamics and their controls in a discontinuous permafrost region on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska. We acquired one-year temperature time series at multiple depths (at 5 or 10 cm intervals up to 85 cm depth) at 45 discrete locations across a 2.3 km 2 watershed. We observed a larger spatial variability in winter temperatures than that in summer temperatures at all depths, with the former controlling most of the spatial variability in mean annual temperatures. We also observed a strong correlation between mean annual ground temperature at a depth of 85 cm and mean annual or winter season ground surface temperature across the 45 locations. We demonstrate that soils classified as cold, intermediate, or warm using hierarchical clustering of full-year temperature data closely match their co-located vegetation (graminoid tundra, dwarf shrub tundra, and tall shrub tundra, respectively). We show that the spatial heterogeneity in soil temperature is primarily driven by spatial heterogeneity in snow cover, which induces variable winter insulation and soil thermal diffusivity. These effects further extend to the subsequent summer by causing variable latent heat exchanges. Finally, we discuss the challenges of predicting soil temperatures from snow depth and vegetation height alone by considering the complexity observed in the field data and reproduced in a model sensitivity analysis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A predictive discrete-continuum multiscale model of plasticity with quantified uncertainty

Multiscale models of materials, consisting of upscaling discrete simulations to continuum models, are unique in their capability to simulate complex materials behavior. The fundamental limitation in multiscale models is the presence of uncertainty in the computational predictions delivered by them. In this work, a sequential multiscale model has been developed, incorporating discrete dislocation dynamics (DDD) simulations and a strain gradient plasticity (SGP) model to predict the size effect in plastic deformations of metallic micro-pillars. The DDD simulations include uniaxial compression of micro-pillars with different sizes and over a wide range of initial dislocation densities and spatial distributions of dislocations. An SGP model is employed at the continuum level that accounts for the size-dependency of flow stress and hardening rate. Sequences of uncertainty analyses have been performed to assess the predictive capability of the multiscale model. The variance-based global sensitivity analysis determines the effect of parameter uncertainty on the SGP model prediction. The multiscale model is then constructed by calibrating the continuum model using the data furnished by the DDD simulations. A Bayesian calibration method is implemented to quantify the uncertainty due to microstructural randomness in discrete dislocation simulations (density and spatial distribution of dislocations) on the macroscopic continuum model prediction (size effect in plastic deformation). Here, the outcomes of this study indicate that the discrete-continuum multiscale model can accurately simulate the plastic deformation of micro-pillars, despite the significant uncertainty in the DDD results. Additionally, depending on the macroscopic features represented by the DDD simulations, the SGP model can reliably predict the size effect in plasticity responses of the micropillars with below 10% of error.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A sharp immersed method for 2D flow-body interactions using the vorticity-velocity Navier-Stokes equations

Immersed methods discretize boundary conditions for complex geometries on background Cartesian grids. Here, this makes such methods especially suitable for two-way coupled flow-body problems, where the body mechanics are partially driven by hydrodynamic forces. However, for the vorticity-velocity form of the Navier-Stokes equations, existing immersed geometry discretizations for two-way coupled problems only achieve first order spatial accuracy near solid boundaries. Here we introduce a sharp-interface approach based on the immersed interface method to handle the one- and two-way coupling between an incompressible flow and one or more rigid bodies using the 2D vorticity-velocity Navier-Stokes equations. Our main contributions are three-fold. First, we develop and analyze a moving boundary treatment for sharp immersed methods that can be applied to PDEs with implicitly defined boundary conditions, such as those commonly imposed on the vorticity field. Second, we develop a two-way coupling methodology for the vorticity-velocity Navier-Stokes equations based on control-volume momentum balance that does not require the pressure field. Third, we show through extensive testing and validation that our resulting flow-body solver reaches second-order accuracy for most practical scenarios, and provides significant efficiency benefits compared to a representative first-order approach.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A dendritic strontium river isoscape for fisheries applications in the Sacramento River basin, California, USA

Objective Understanding the origins and movements of fish is fundamental to effective conservation and fisheries management. Strontium isotope ratios ( 87 Sr/ 86 Sr) in otoliths provide a powerful tracer of natal origin and migratory pathways. However, existing 87 Sr/ 86 Sr isoscapes for the Sacramento River basin, an ecosystem that supports ecologically and economically important salmon populations, rely on discrete classification approaches that overlook unsampled habitats and do not incorporate spatial uncertainty. Our objective was to develop a continuous, network-explicit 87 Sr/ 86 Sr isoscape with quantified uncertainty to fill in data gaps and enable probabilistic assignments of fish origin and movement. Methods We used river water 87 Sr/ 86 Sr data from 106 sites (1997–2021) to develop spatial stream network models that use dendritic connectivity and watershed characteristics (lithology, bedrock age, and land cover) to predict river water 87 Sr/ 86 Sr throughout the basin. Models were fitted using maximum and restricted likelihood and were evaluated via Akaike’s information criterion and leave-one-out cross validation. We produced both historical (pre-dam) and present-day (below-dam) isoscapes, delineated uncertainty-informed isotopic ranges using k -means clustering, and applied a proof-of-concept Bayesian assignment to estimate natal origins and early rearing habitats for two endangered winter-run Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha. Results Cross validation indicated strong performance of the 87 Sr/ 86 Sr model (leave-one-out cross validation: R 2 = 0.91; root mean square error = 0.0005). Uncertainty-informed clustering identified 19 isotopic “suites” (reaches with indistinguishable 87 Sr/ 86 Sr values) in present-day anadromous habitats and 25 suites in the historical network. Example natal and early rearing assignments included predictions that challenged expectations for juvenile salmon migration based on predicted river 87 Sr/ 86 Sr compositions. Conclusions This study developed a continuous, network-explicit 87 Sr/ 86 Sr isoscape that integrates existing river data to predict 87 Sr/ 86 Sr in unsampled reaches and the likely achievable range and resolution of otolith-based origin and life history inference. The resulting river isoscape provides a valuable tool to predict salmon movements and identify habitats supporting their survival and growth that otherwise might remain undetected. Coupling these predictions with complementary approaches that ground-truth juvenile presence (e.g., targeted fish surveys) represents an important step toward science-informed restoration and management of critical habitats throughout the Sacramento River basin.

Environmental sciences↗

Inverse Calculation of Burden Distribution Matrix Using B-spline Model Based PDF control in Blast Furnace Burden Charging Process

The inverse calculation of burden distribution matrix (BDM) is one of the most important challenges in the blast furnace operation in iron-making processes. In general, blast furnace consumes 65% of the total energy for the whole steel-making. Focusing on this practical challenge, this article proposes a new burden distribution spatial model in calculating burden charging process, and develops a B-spline approximation-based probability density function (PDF) control algorithm to assign the expected thickness distribution of burden layer and, thus, develops a new method for the required inverse calculation of BDM. First, a novel method for the thickness distribution of burden layer is given using B-spline model to produce an expected distribution shape subjected to a desired tracking within a specific spatial constraint. Then, according to the coexistence of continuous and bounded discrete variables in BDM, a novel hybrid optimization control method by combining integer programming and PDF tracking is further established for the effective inverse calculation of BDM. Finally, the proposed PDF-based iterative inverse calculation of BDM using B-spline models are tested using various data from industrial examples. Furthermore, the simulation results show that the proposed method is well suited to solve the BDM inverse calculation problem in practice.

42 ENGINEERING↗

CELAVI (Circular Economy Lifecycle Assessment and VIsualization) [SWR-20-87]

A circular economy emphasizes the efficient use of all resources (e.g., materials, land, water). Despite anticipated overall benefits to society, the transition to a circular economy is likely to create regional differences in impacts. Current tools are unable to fully evaluate these potential externalities, which will be important for informing research prioritization and regional decision making. The Circular Economy Lifecycle Assessment and VIsualization (CELAVI) framework allows stakeholders to quantify and visualize potential regional and sectoral transfers of impacts that could result from transitioning to a circular economy, with particular focus on energy materials. The framework uses system dynamics to model material flows for multiple circular economy pathways and decisions are based on learning-by-doing and are implemented via cost and strategic value of different circular economy pathways. It uses network theory to track the spatial and sectoral flow of functional units across a graph and discrete event simulation to to step through time and evaluate lifecycle assessment data at each time step. The framework is designed to be flexible and scalable to accommodate multiple energy materials and multiple energy technologies. The primary goal of CELAVI is to help answer questions about how material flows and environmental and economic impacts of energy systems might change if the circularity of energy systems increases.

Eberle, Annika↗

CELAVI (Circular Economy Lifecycle Assessment and VIsualization) v.1.3.1 9/30/2022 [SWR-20-87]

A circular economy emphasizes the efficient use of all resources (e.g., materials, land, water). Despite anticipated overall benefits to society, the transition to a circular economy is likely to create regional differences in impacts. Current tools are unable to fully evaluate these potential externalities, which will be important for informing research prioritization and regional decision making. The Circular Economy Lifecycle Assessment and VIsualization (CELAVI) framework allows stakeholders to quantify and visualize potential regional and sectoral transfers of impacts that could result from transitioning to a circular economy, with particular focus on energy materials. The framework uses system dynamics to model material flows for multiple circular economy pathways and decisions are based on learning-by-doing and are implemented via cost and strategic value of different circular economy pathways. It uses network theory to track the spatial and sectoral flow of functional units across a graph and discrete event simulation to to step through time and evaluate lifecycle assessment data at each time step. The framework is designed to be flexible and scalable to accommodate multiple energy materials and multiple energy technologies. The primary goal of CELAVI is to help answer questions about how material flows and environmental and economic impacts of energy systems might change if the circularity of energy systems increases.

Eberle, Annika↗

Emergent discrete space-time crystal of Majorana-like quasiparticles in chiral liquid crystals

Time crystals spontaneously break the time translation symmetry, as recently has been frequently reported in quantum systems. Here we describe the observation of classical analogues of both 1+1-dimensional and 2+1-dimensional discrete space-time crystals in a liquid crystal system driven by a Floquet electrical signal. These classical time crystals comprise particle-like structural features and exists over a wide range of temperatures and electrical driving conditions. The phenomenon-enabling period-doubling effect comes from their topological Majorana-like quasiparticle features, where periodic inter-transformations of co-existing topological solitons and disclinations emerge in response to external stimuli and play pivotal roles. Our discrete space-time crystals exhibit robustness against temporal perturbations and spatial defects, behaving like a time-crystalline analogues of a smectic phase. Our findings show that the simultaneous symmetry breaking in time and space can be a widespread occurrence in numerous open systems, not only in quantum but also in a classical soft matter context.

FOS: Physical sciences↗

An Overview of the Circular Economy Lifecycle Assessment and VIsualization (CELAVI) Framework

A circular economy emphasizes the efficient use of all resources (e.g., materials, land, water). Despite anticipated overall benefits to society, the transition to a circular economy is likely to create regional differences in impacts. Current tools are unable to fully evaluate these potential externalities, which will be important for informing research prioritization and regional decision making. This presentation will review and contrast nine current impact assessment methods and describe their granularity, scope, data requirements, and capabilities within the context of identifying regional and sectoral transfers of impacts that could result from transitioning to a circular economy for energy systems. The review of current approaches highlights the need for a new hybrid circularity assessment framework that leverages multiple methods. We describe one such approach: the Circular Economy Lifecycle Assessment and VIsualization (CELAVI) framework. CELAVI uses system dynamics to model material flows for multiple circular economy pathways, network theory to track the spatial and sectoral flow of functional units across a graph, and discrete event simulation to to step through time and evaluate lifecycle assessment data at each time step. The framework is designed to be flexible and scalable enough to accommodate multiple energy materials and multiple energy technologies. CELAVI's hybridization of multiple existing methods yields additional capabilities, which may help answer questions about how flows between the technosphere and ecosphere may evolve if the circularity of energy systems is modified.

circular economy↗

SCEPTRE 2.2 Quick Start Guide

This report provides a summary of notes for building and running the Sandia Computational Engine for Particle Transport for Radiation Effects (SCEPTRE) code. SCEPTRE is a general- purpose C++ code for solving the li near Boltzmann transport equation in serial or parallel using unstructured spatial finite elements, multigroup energy treatment, and a variety of angular treatments including discrete ordinates and spherical harmonics. Either the first-order form of the Boltzmann equation or one of the second-order forms may be solved. SCEPTRE requires a small number of open-source Third Part y Libraries (TPL) to be available, and example scripts for building these TPLs are provided. The TPLs needed by SCEPTRE are Trilinos, boost, and netcdf. SCEPTRE uses an autotools build system , and a sample configure script is provided. Running the SCEPTRE code requires that the user provide a spatial finite-elements mesh in Exodus format and a cross section library in a format that will be described. SCEPTRE uses an xml-based input, and several examples will be provided.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

SCEPTRE 2.1 Quick Start Guide

This report provides a summary of notes for building and running the Sandia Computational Engine for Particle Transport for Radiation Effects (SCEPTRE) code. SCEPTRE is a general purpose C++ code for solving the Boltzmann transport equation in serial or parallel using unstructured spatial finite elements, multigroup energy treatment, and a variety of angular treatments including discrete ordinates and spherical harmonics. Either the first-order form of the Boltzmann equation or one of the second-order forms may be solved. SCEPTRE requires a small number of open-source Third Party Libraries (TPL) to be available, and example scripts for building these TPL's are provided. The TPL's needed by SCEPTRE are Trilinos, boost, and netcdf. SCEPTRE uses an autoconf build system, and a sample configure script is provided. Running the SCEPTRE code requires that the user provide a spatial finite-elements mesh in Exodus format and a cross section library in a format that will be described. SCEPTRE uses an xml-based input, and several examples will be provided.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

SCEPTRE 2.3 Quick Start Guide

This report provides a summary of notes for building and running the Sandia Computational Engine for Particle Transport for Radiation Effects (SCEPTRE) code. SCEPTRE is a general- purpose C++ code for solving the linear Boltzmann transport equation in serial or parallel using unstructured spatial finite elements, multigroup energy treatment, and a variety of angular treatments including discrete ordinates (Sn) and spherical harmonics (Pn). Either the first-order form of the Boltzmann equation or one of the second-order forms may be solved. SCEPTRE requires a small number of open-source Third Party Libraries (TPL) to be available, and example scripts for building these TPL are provided. The TPL needed by SCEPTRE are Trilinos, Boost, and Netcdf. SCEPTRE uses an autotools build system, and a sample configure script is provided. Running the SCEPTRE code requires that the user provide a spatial finite-elements mesh in Exodus format and a cross section library in a format that will be described. SCEPTRE uses an xml-based input, and several examples will be provided.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Performance of Compact Pulsed Thermal Imaging System for In-Service Applications. Pulsed thermal tomography nondestructive examination of additively manufactured reactor materials and components

Additive manufacturing (AM) is an emerging method for cost-efficient fabrication of complex topology nuclear reactor parts from high-strength corrosion resistance alloys, such as stainless steel and Inconel. AM of metallic structures for nuclear energy applications is currently based on laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) process, which has the capability of melting metallic powder and net shaping the structures with relatively high precision. Some of the challenges with using LPBF method for nuclear manufacturing include the possibility of introducing pores into metallic structures. Integrity of AM structures needs to be evaluated nondestructively because material flaws could lead to premature failures due to creep in high temperature nuclear reactor environment. Currently, there exist limited capabilities to evaluate actual AM structures nondestructively. Pulsed Thermography (PT) imaging provides a capability for non-destructive evaluation (NDE) of sub-surface defects in arbitrary size structures. The PT method is based on recording material surface temperature transients with infrared (IR) camera following thermal pulse delivered on material surface with flash light. The PT method has advantages for NDE of actual AM structures because the method involves one-sided non-contact measurements and fast processing of large sample areas captured in one image. The data cube of PT measurements consists of surface temperature taken at sequential time intervals T(x,y,t). Material defects can be detected either by analyzing the thermograms T(x,y,t) data cube, or by using thermal tomography (TT) algorithm to obtain 3D spatial reconstruction of thermal effusivity e(x,y,z). To reduce the cost and enable in-service NDE in spatially constrained environment, it is highly desirable to develop PT with compact and inexpensive IR camera. Following initial qualification of an AM component for deployment in a nuclear reactor, a compact PT system can also be used for in-service nondestructive evaluation (NDE) applications. However, data cube obtained with PT based on compact IR camera suffers from strong thermal noises and loss of features due to relatively low sampling rate. In this report we describe two unsupervised machine learning (ML) algorithms for enhancement of PT images obtained with compact IR camera. In one approach, we introduce Sparse Coding Discrete Cosine Transform (SC/DCT) algorithm to remove additive white Gaussian noise (AWGN) from spatial thermal effusivity reconstructions. In another approach we introduce a Spatial Temporal Denoised Thermal Source Separation (STDTSS) ML algorithm to process thermograms. The STDTSS algorithm consists of spatial and temporal denoising using Gaussian and Savitzky–Golay filtering, followed by the matrix decomposition using Principal Component Analysis (PCA), and Independent Component Analysis (ICA) to automatically detect flaws. In the work described in this report, we constructed a compact PT system using a relatively small and low-cost FLIR A65 camera, consisting on uncooled microbolometer detector. Performance of SC/DCT algorithm was demonstrated on enhancing TT images of Inconel 718 AM plate. Performance of the STDTSS methods was investigated using thermography data obtained from imaging stainless steel 316L specimens produced with LPBF method with imprinted calibrated porosity defects.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

A provably stable numerical method for the anisotropic diffusion equation in confined magnetic fields

We present a novel numerical method for solving the anisotropic diffusion equation in magnetic fields confined to a periodic box which is accurate and provably stable. We derive energy estimates of the solution of the continuous initial boundary value problem. A discrete formulation is presented using operator splitting in time with the summation by parts finite difference approximation of spatial derivatives for the perpendicular diffusion operator. Weak penalty procedures are derived for implementing both boundary conditions and parallel diffusion operator obtained by field line tracing. We prove that the fully-discrete approximation is unconditionally stable. Discrete energy estimates are shown to match the continuous energy estimate given the correct choice of penalty parameters. A nonlinear penalty parameter is shown to provide an effective method for tuning the parallel diffusion penalty and significantly minimises rounding errors. Several numerical experiments, using manufactured solutions, the “NIMROD benchmark” problem and a single island problem, are presented to verify numerical accuracy, convergence, and asymptotic preserving properties of the method. Finally, we present a magnetic field with chaotic regions and islands and show the contours of the anisotropic diffusion equation reproduce key features in the field.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A Particle-in-Cell Method for Plasmas with a Generalized Momentum Formulation, Part II: Enforcing the Lorenz Gauge Condition

In a previous paper Christlieb et al. (A particle-in-cell method for plasmas with a generalized momentum formulation, part I: Model formulation, 2024), we developed a new particle-in-cell (PIC) method for the relativistic Vlasov–Maxwell system in which the electromagnetic fields and the equations of motion for the particles were cast in terms of scalar and vector potentials through a Hamiltonian formulation. This new method evolved the potentials under the Lorenz gauge using integral equation methods. New methods to construct spatial derivatives of the potentials that converge at the same rates as the fields were also presented. The new particle method was compared against standard explicit discretizations, including the well-known FDTD-PIC method, for a range of applications involving sheaths and particle beams. Here, this paper extends this new class of methods by focusing on the enforcement the Lorenz gauge condition in both exact and approximate forms using co-located meshes. A time-consistency property of the proposed field solver for the vector potential form of Maxwell’s equations is established, which is shown to preserve the equivalence between the semi-discrete Lorenz gauge condition and the analogous semi-discrete continuity equation. Using this property, we present three methods to enforce a semi-discrete gauge condition. The first method introduces an update for the continuity equation that is consistent with the discretization of the Lorenz gauge condition. Both the finite difference and spectral implementations satisfy this discrete gauge condition to machine precision. The second approach we propose enforces a semi-discrete continuity equation using the boundary integral solution to the field equations. The potential benefit of this approach is that it eliminates spatial derivatives that appear on the particle data, namely the current density, which is often calculated by linear combinations of low-order spline basis functions. This method is ideally suited to boundary integral equation methods that invert multi-dimensional operators without dimensional splitting techniques and will be the subject of future work. The third approach introduces a gauge correcting method that makes direct use of the gauge condition to modify the scalar potential and uses local maps for both the charge and current densities. This results in a gauge error, as the maps do not enforce the continuity equation. The vector potential coming from the current density is taken to be exact, and using the Lorenz gauge, we compute a correction to the scalar potential that makes the two potentials satisfy the gauge condition. This method also enforces the gauge condition to machine precision. We demonstrate two of the proposed methods in the context of periodic domains. Problems defined on bounded domains, including those with complex geometric features remain an ongoing effort. However, this work shows that it is possible to design computationally efficient methods that can effectively enforce the Lorenz gauge condition in a non-staggered PIC formulation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Detection of surface water temperature variations of Mongolian lakes benefiting from the spatially and temporally gap-filled MODIS data

Lakes provide critical water resources for human activities and ecosystems, particularly in the Mongolian Plateau (MP), which is characterized by a dry climate and a harsh environment. As a region that is sensitive to anthropogenic warming, tracking lake surface water temperature (LSWT) changes in Mongolian lakes is crucial for understanding the consequences of a warming climate on lake ecosystems. However, the long-term monitoring of LSWT is restricted by the spatiotemporal gaps in the raw imagery of remote sensing-based land surface temperature (LST), e.g., the commonly used Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) LST products. This study applied an improved gap-filling method by utilizing the discrete cosine transform-based penalized least squares (DCT-PLS) strategy in the spatial domain combined with the linear interpolation (LI) algorithm in the temporal domain. The method was applied to fill gaps in the LSWT imagery of 12 representative lakes across MP. The randomly sampled high-quality MODIS LSWT values in the spatial and temporal domains were excavated as false data gaps and considered “virtual true” validation datasets. The spatial validation results showed that the estimated LSWT for all the lake cases were comparable with the “virtual true” LSWT values, with the average values of the coefficient of determination, mean absolute error, mean square error, and root mean square error being 0.98, 0.38 °C, 0.45 °C, and 0.59 °C, respectively. Meanwhile, the error of nighttime LSWT results was relatively lower than that of daytime LSWT. For temporal interpolation validation, the LI algorithm exhibited relatively better performance and could more objectively indicate the variation in LSWT. Benefiting from the spatially and temporally well-constrained data, we analyzed the interannual and intra-annual change characteristics of the LSWTs of the 12 lakes. The long-term variations of annual and seasonal mean LSWTs in the 12 selected lakes exhibited no evident trends in 2000–2020, while presented apparent interannual fluctuations. The slight changes in the average LSWTs of the 12 selected lakes were in excellent synchronization with the surrounding LST derived from the reanalysis datasets, confirming the widely reported phenomenon of “global warming hiatus” that occurred in the early 21st century. This study improves the understanding of the LSWT variations in Mongolian lakes in response to global climate change. It has the potential to provide an effective approach for monitoring LSWT changes in other large-scale studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Binomial Stochastic Framework for Efficiently Modeling Discrete Statistics of Convective Populations

Abstract Understanding the coupling between convective clouds and the general circulation, as well as addressing the gray zone problem in convective parameterization, requires insight into the genesis and maintenance of spatial patterns in cumulus cloud populations. In this study, a simple toy model for recreating populations of interacting convective objects as distributed over a two‐dimensional Eulerian grid is formulated to this purpose. Key elements at the foundation of the model include i) a fully discrete formulation for capturing discrete behavior in convective properties at small population sample sizes, ii) object age‐dependence for representing life‐cycle effects, and iii) a prognostic number budget allowing for object interactions and co‐existence of multiple species. A primary goal is to optimize the computational efficiency of this system. To this purpose the object birth rate is represented stochastically through a spatially aware Bernoulli process. The same binomial stochastic operator is applied to horizontal advection of objects, conserving discreteness in object number. The applicability to atmospheric convection as well as behavior implied by the formulation is assessed. Various simple applications of the BiOMi model (Binomial Objects on Microgrids) are explored, suggesting that important convective behavior can be captured at low computational cost. This includes i) subsampling effects and associated powerlaw scaling in the convective gray zone, ii) stochastic predator‐prey behavior, iii) the downscale turbulent energy cascade, and iv) simple forms of spatial organization and convective memory. Consequences and opportunities for convective parameterization in next‐generation weather and climate models are discussed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗