General method for predicting efficiency of paraboloidal solar collector
Maximum collection efficiency prediction method for paraboloid solar collector
THERMODYNAMIC EFFICIENCY↗
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Results for “solar prediction”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Prospects for solar flare X-ray polarimetry
A review of the literature indicates that no experimental evidence has yet been found for solar flare X-ray polarimetry. A satellite instrument is described that has sufficient sensitivity at high energies to detect the predicted solar flare polarization. It is shown that the instrument sensitivity for a moderate event approaches polarization levels of 1 percent in each of seven energy bins spanning the 10-100 keV range for integration times as short as 10 s.
Chanan, Gary↗
Coupling processes related to the Sun-weather problem
Physical mechanisms for coupling the energetics of solar activity to meteorological responses are reviewed. Although several hypotheses have been advanced, none can be said to be sufficiently complete to be applied to weather or climate prediction. Solar activity indicators potentially useful for forecasting are identified, including sunspots, solar flares, and magnetic sector boundary crossings. Additional experiments, studies, and analyses are required before Sun-weather concepts can be utilized for predicting meteorological responses.
Goldberg, R. A.↗
Solar array electrical performance assessment for Space Station Freedom
Electrical power for Space Station Freedom will be generated by large Photovoltaic arrays with a beginning of life power requirement of 30.8 kW per array. The solar arrays will operate in a Low Earth Orbit (LEO) over a design life of fifteen years. This paper provides an analysis of the predicted solar array electrical performance over the design life and presents a summary of supporting analysis and test data for the assigned model parameters and performance loss factors. Each model parameter and loss factor is assessed based upon program requirements, component analysis, and test data to date. A description of the LMSC performance model, future test plans, and predicted performance ranges are also given.
Smith, Bryan K.↗
Solar array electrical performance assessment for Space Station Freedom
Electrical power for Space Station Freedom will be generated by large photovoltaic arrays with a beginning of life power requirement of 30.8 kW per array. The solar arrays will operate in a Low Earth Orbit (LEO) over a design life of fifteen years. This paper provides an analysis of the predicted solar array electrical performance over the design life and presents a summary of supporting analysis and test data for the assigned model parameters and performance loss factors. Each model parameter and loss factor is assessed based upon program requirements, component analysis and test data to date. A description of the LMSC performance model future test plans and predicted performance ranges are also given.
Smith, Bryan K.↗
Development of a Sunspot Tracking System
Large solar flares produce a significant amount of energetic particles which pose a hazard for human activity in space. In the hope of understanding flare mechanisms and thus better predicting solar flares, NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) developed an experimental vector magnetograph (EXVM) polarimeter to measure the Sun's magnetic field. The EXVM will be used to perform ground-based solar observations and will provide a proof of concept for the design of a similar instrument for the Japanese Solar-B space mission. The EXVM typically operates for a period of several minutes. During this time there is image motion due to atmospheric fluctuation and telescope wind loading. To optimize the EXVM performance an image motion compensation device (sunspot tracker) is needed. The sunspot tracker consists of two parts, an image motion determination system and an image deflection system. For image motion determination a CCD or CID camera is used to digitize an image, than an algorithm is applied to determine the motion. This motion or error signal is sent to the image deflection system which moves the image back to its original location. Both of these systems are under development. Two algorithms are available for sunspot tracking which require the use of only one row and one column of image data. To implement these algorithms, two identical independent systems are being developed, one system for each axis of motion. Two CID cameras have been purchased; the data from each camera will be used to determine image motion for each direction. The error signal generated by the tracking algorithm will be sent to an image deflection system consisting of an actuator and a mirror constrained to move about one axis. Magnetostrictive actuators were chosen to move the mirror over piezoelectrics due to their larger driving force and larger range of motion. The actuator and mirror mounts are currently under development.
Taylor, Jaime R.↗
Development of Solar Flare and Energetic Particle Prediction Portal (SEP 3 )
Solar activity is a primary factor determining the state of the Earth’s space environment, geomagnetic and ionospheric disturbances, and radiation hazards. In the current state of knowledge, machine learning (ML) methods provide essential tools for processing data, investigating relationships among various physical properties and characteristics, uncovering hidden connections, and predicting hazardous solar events. The primary difficulty in developing and applying modern machine-learning tools in heliophysics is that the essential data are scattered among over a hundred data repositories developed by instrument teams of space missions and ground-based observatories. In addition, statistical and ML methods require long time series of homogeneous measurements. To facilitate ML-ready data preparation and access, we have developed an interactive database of solar flares integrating the most essential datasets (https://solarflare.njit.edu/). The database performs an initial data processing and is automatically updated. In addition, we are developing the Solar Energetic Particle Prediction Portal (SEP3, https://sun.njit.edu/SEP3), which hosts web applications that allow users to retrieve the database records. The Portal has a search page for browsing the events from the most widely used catalogs and a dedicated space to share the most recent achievements of the team. The interactive widget can display soft X-ray and proton flux time series from GOES satellites and the flare records. The data portal has been used to evaluate the forecasts of solar proton events and investigate machine-learning approaches to SEP prediction.
SMD↗
SunDial – An Integrated SHINES System to Enable High-penetration Feeder-level PV
The Project Team of Fraunhofer USA, National Grid, and IPKeys developed and conducted a pilot deployment of the SunDial system, a virtual power plant platform that enables high-penetrations of solar PV to be integrated into the distribution grid. The pilot was conducted over a 15-month period from August 2018 through October 2019 on a National Grid distribution feeder in Shirley, MA. A vendor-agnostic control platform (the “Global Scheduler”) optimally shaped the net load for a virtual portfolio of non-co-located DERs based on user-defined policy objectives. The goal of the SunDial project was to simplify and reduce the risk associated with the deployment of solar in high-penetration environments by: (1) Developing an open-source, vendor-agnostic dispatch platform that can be readily adapted to optimize control of DERs over a variety of use cases; (2) Developing auto-calibrating load and solar prediction methodologies that can be readily implemented and scaled to new deployments; (3) Developing a methodology to use demand-side management with traditional electrochemical energy storage to provide “load shaping” services in high solar penetration environments; (4) Using grid-scale storage to minimize short-term intermittency association with PV production; and (5) Deploying on the National Grid distribution system to gain experience on the potential for (and limits of) integrated storage with demand-side management.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Solar wind record in the lunar regolith - Nitrogen and noble gases
The measured elemental and isotopic abundances of noble gases and nitrogen have been measured in five different samples of lunar regolith material. It was found noble gases liberated by chemical attack on grain surfaces from two of the samples were solar. The Ne-20/Ne-22 ratio in the two grain surface reservoir is 13.5-13.6, compared to the average value of 13.7 + or - 0.3 measured in the Apollo solar wind collection foils (Gochsler and Geiss, 1977). It is suggested that the noble gases in grain interiors have suffered severe mass fractionation. The surface-sited N/Ar in an ilmenite sample exceeds the predicted solar ratio by more than a factor of 10. It is concluded that the solar system abundances of Cameron (1982) describe the elemental composition of the noble gases in the solar wind very well.
Frick, Urs↗
Solar Irradiance Ramp Forecasting Based on All-Sky Imagers
Solar forecasting constitutes a critical tool for operating, producing and storing generated power from solar farms. In the framework of the International Energy Agency’s Photovoltaic Power Systems Program Task 16, the solar irradiance nowcast algorithms, based on five all-sky imagers (ASIs), are used to investigate the feasibility of ASIs to foresee ramp events. ASIs 1–2 and ASIs 3–5 can capture the true ramp events by 26.0–51.0% and 49.0–92.0% of the cases, respectively. ASIs 1–2 provided the lowest (<10.0%) falsely documented ramp events while ASIs 3–5 recorded false ramp events up to 85.0%. On the other hand, ASIs 3–5 revealed the lowest falsely documented no ramp events (8.0–51.0%). ASIs 1–2 are developed to provide spatial solar irradiance forecasts and have been delimited only to a small area for the purposes of this benchmark, which penalizes these approaches. These findings show that ASI-based nowcasts could be considered as a valuable tool for predicting solar irradiance ramp events for a variety of solar energy technologies. The combination of physical and deep learning-based methods is identified as a potential approach to further improve the ramp event forecasts.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Parametric performance characteristics and treatment of temperature coefficients of silicon solar cells for space application
The electrical performance characteristics of 2 and 10 ohms-cm N/P-type silicon solar cells were measured at simulated solar intensities of 5, 50, 100, 140, 250, 400, 550, 700, and 850 mW/sq cm. At each intensity, the temperature was varied in increments of 20 deg between extremes of +160 and -160 C. Short-circuit current, open-circuit voltage, and maximum power are presented in graphical format. Also described are three methods for predicting solar cell electrical performance as a function of temperature and intensity. Two of the methods are suitable for use at extreme temperature-intensity conditions. These methods were used sucessfully to predict the performance of the transducer on board the Mariner Mars 1971 spacecraft.
Patterson, R. E.↗
Empirical testing of structural deflection modeling of large photovoltaic modules
The objective of the structural deflection test was to verify the analytical models used to predict solar cell stress, load-bearing layer stress, and module deflection that result from a uniform pressure load on the module surface. The verification process consisted of measuring module deflection, stress in the solar cell, and stress in the load-bearing member as a functon of normal pressure load, pottant modulus of elasticity, pottant thickness, and cell location. Four glass superstrate modules, two plain wood substrate modules, two ribbed wood substrate modules, and a steel substrate module were tested. Consistent with analysis predictions, all unribbed specimens exhibited nonlinear load vs. deflection characteristics. With the exception of the steel module, test results and analysis predictions for panel deflectons agreed to within 10 percent. A wider variation of agreement was found for stress in the load-bearing members and cells.
Duncan, L. B.↗
Validation of Community Models: 2. Development of a Baseline, Using the Wang-Sheeley-Arge Model
This paper is the second in a series providing independent validation of community models of the outer corona and inner heliosphere. Here I present a comprehensive validation of the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model. These results will serve as a baseline against which to compare the next generation of comparable forecasting models. The WSA model is used by a number of agencies to predict Solar wind conditions at Earth up to 4 days into the future. Given its importance to both the research and forecasting communities, it is essential that its performance be measured systematically and independently. I offer just such an independent and systematic validation. I report skill scores for the model's predictions of wind speed and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) polarity for a large set of Carrington rotations. The model was run in all its routinely used configurations. It ingests synoptic line of sight magnetograms. For this study I generated model results for monthly magnetograms from multiple observatories, spanning the Carrington rotation range from 1650 to 2074. I compare the influence of the different magnetogram sources and performance at quiet and active times. I also consider the ability of the WSA model to forecast both sharp transitions in wind speed from slow to fast wind and reversals in the polarity of the radial component of the IMF. These results will serve as a baseline against which to compare future versions of the model as well as the current and future generation of magnetohydrodynamic models under development for forecasting use.
MacNeice, Peter↗
The Sun as a probe of varying G
In order to explore the ability of helioseismology and features of solar models to test the constancy of the gravitational constant G during the last 4.5 Gyr of solar evolution, we have constructed a grid of evolutionary sequences for solar models under the assumptions that G varies with time, and have explored the sensitivity of their nonradial acoustic mode oscillation spectra to G variability. All final models satisfy the standard constraints for the present Sun and, except for the variation in G, were constructed under the assumptions of a standard solar model. When compared with the observed solar p-mode spectrum, our models definitely rule out beta greater than 0.4 and beta less than -0.4, where G(t) proportional to t(exp -beta) over the last 4.5 Gyr. These limits can be tightened to rule out absolute value of beta greater than 0 (0.1) by the use of other solar observables. For nonmonotonic variation in G this suggests that long-timescale variations greater than 0 (5%) in G are ruled out over the last 4.5 Gyr. Future prospects for improving the sensitivity of helioseismic tests of a varying G are also discussed. Finally, we explore the sensitivity of the predicted solar neutrino flux to varying G.
Demarque, P.↗
SOFI Coating Study
Results are presented for the reflectivity of spray on foam insulation (SOFI) samples coated with a new high solar reflectivity coating. Reflectance spectra are presented comparing bare SOFI to samples with one, two, or three layers of the new coating as well as one sample with white paint. Samples were coated on the front side of the SOFI, where the surface height varies significantly, as well as on the flatter back surface. Predicted solar absorbance values are provided for a few select cases.
Youngquist, R.↗
Predictions for the annular solar eclipse of 1984
Predictions for the path of the annular solar eclipse of 30 May 1984 are presented. Local circumstances for cities in and along the path are discussed as well as the Saros history of this eclipse. The author investigates the possibility of observing the solar corona during maximum eclipse but concludes that the prospects are remote. Finally, the appearance of the eclipse during annularity, and beading phenomena, are discussed, with the help of a lunar-limb analysis and observations made at previous eclipses of this Saros series.
Espenak, F.↗
Solar Cycle #24 and the Solar Dynamo
We focus on two solar aspects related to flight dynamics. These are the solar dynamo and long-term solar activity predictions. The nature of the solar dynamo is central to solar activity predictions, and these predictions are important for orbital planning of satellites in low earth orbit (LEO). The reason is that the solar ultraviolet (UV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spectral irradiances inflate the upper atmospheric layers of the Earth, forming the thermosphere and exosphere through which these satellites orbit. Concerning the dynamo, we discuss some recent novel approaches towards its understanding. For solar predictions we concentrate on a solar precursor method, in which the Sun s polar field plays a major role in forecasting the next cycle s activity based upon the Babcock- Leighton dynamo. With a current low value for the Sun s polar field, this method predicts that solar cycle #24 will be one of the lowest in recent times, with smoothed F10.7 radio flux values peaking near 130+ 30 (2 4, in the 2013 timeframe. One may have to consider solar activity as far back as the early 20th century to find a cycle of comparable magnitude. Concomitant effects of low solar activity upon satellites in LEO will need to be considered, such as enhancements in orbital debris. Support for our prediction of a low solar cycle #24 is borne out by the lack of new cycle sunspots at least through the first half of 2007. Usually at the present epoch in the solar cycle (-7+ years after the last solar maximum), for a normal size following cycle, new cycle sunspots would be seen. The lack of their appearance at this time is only consistent with a low cycle #24. Polar field observations of a weak magnitude are consistent with unusual structures seen in the Sun s corona. Polar coronal holes are the hallmarks of the Sun s open field structures. At present, it appears that the polar coronal holes are relatively weak, and there have been many equatorial coronal holes. This appears consistent with a weakening polar field, but coronal hole data must be scrutinized carefully as observing techniques have changed. We also discuss new solar dynamo ideas, and the SODA (Solar Dynamo Amplitude) index, which provides the user with the ability to track the Sun s hidden, dynamo magnetic fields throughout the various stages of the Sun s cycle. Our solar dynamo ideas are a modernization and rejuvenation of the Babcock-Leighton original idea of a shallow solar dynamo, using modem observations that appear to support their shallow dynamo viewpoint. We are in awe of being able to see an object the size of the Sun undergoing as dramatic a change as our model provides in a few short years. The Sun, however, has undergone changes as rapid as this before! The weather on the Sun is at least as fickle as the weather on the Earth.
Pesnell, W. Dean↗
Solar Cycle #24 and the Solar Dynamo
We focus on two solar aspects related to flight dynamics. These are the solar dynamo and long-term solar activity predictions. The nature of the solar dynamo is central to solar activity predictions, and these predictions are important for orbital planning of satellites in low earth orbit (LEO). The reason is that the solar ultraviolet (UV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spectral irradiances inflate the upper atmospheric layers of the Earth, forming the thermosphere and exosphere through which these satellites orbit. Concerning the dynamo, we discuss some recent novel approaches towards its understanding. For solar predictions we concentrate on a solar precursor method, in which the Sun's polar field plays a major role in forecasting the next cycle s activity based upon the Babcock-Leighton dynamo. With a current low value for the Sun s polar field, this method predicts that solar cycle #24 will be one of the lowest in recent times, with smoothed F10.7 radio flux values peaking near 130 plus or minus 30 (2 sigma), in the 2013 timeframe. One may have to consider solar activity as far back as the early 20th century to find a cycle of comparable magnitude. Concomitant effects of low solar activity upon satellites in LEO will need to be considered, such as enhancements in orbital debris. Support for our prediction of a low solar cycle #24 is borne out by the lack of new cycle sunspots at least through the first half of 2007. Usually at the present epoch in the solar cycle (approx. 7+ years after the last solar maximum), for a normal size following cycle, new cycle sunspots would be seen. The lack of their appearance at this time is only consistent with a low cycle #24. Polar field observations of a weak magnitude are consistent with unusual structures seen in the Sun s corona. Polar coronal holes are the hallmarks of the Sun's open field structures. At present, it appears that the polar coronal holes are relatively weak, and there have been many equatorial coronal holes. This appears consistent with a weakening polar field, but coronal hole data must be scrutinized carefully as observing techniques have changed. We also discuss new solar dynamo ideas, and the SODA (SOlar Dynamo Amplitude) index, which provides the user with the ability to track the Sun's hidden, dynamo magnetic fields throughout the various stages of the Sun's cycle. Our solar dynamo ideas are a modernization and rejuvenation of the Babcock-Leighton original idea of a shallow solar dynamo, using modern observations that appear to support their shallow dynamo viewpoint. We are in awe of being able to see an object the size of the Sun undergoing as dramatic a change as our model provides in a few short years. The Sun, however, has undergone changes as rapid as this before! The weather on the Sun is at least as fickle as the weather on the Earth.
Schatten, Kenneth↗