Building Physics-Based Solar Cycle Forecasts Using the Ensemble Kalman Filter Method
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Physics-Based Solar Cycle Forecast Using the Ensemble Kalman Filter Method
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SMD↗
Solar Sounding Rocket Experiment CLASP2 & CLASP2.1
In order to elucidate the most important issues of solar physics, "chromosphere/corona heating" and "solar wind acceleration," it is essential to observe the magnetic field of the chromosphere and transition layer, which are the connection regions between the solar surface and the corona. However, observations are still lacking. Until now, we have been promoting the CLASP series of sounding rocket experiments with the aim of "establishing a method for diagnosing the magnetic field of the chromosphere and transition layers by ultraviolet polarized spectroscopic observation". In this lecture, we will discuss the sounding rocket experiment CLASP2 (conducted in April2019)andCLASP2.1 (2021), which succeeded in high-precision polarization spectroscopic observation of the ionizing magnesium ray region (wavelength 280 nm) Conducted in October 2010)
Ryohko Ishikawa↗
SUMI: The Solar Ultraviolet Magnetograph Investigation
A major focus of solar physics is the measurement of the temporal and spatial variability of solar magnetic fields from the photosphere into the lower corona, together with the study of how their behavior produces the dynamic phenomena in this region such as flares and Coronal Mass Injection (CMEs). Considerable success has been achieved in the characterization of the full vector field in the photosphere, where P, the ratio of the gas pressure to the magnetic pressure, is greater than or equal to 1. At higher levels in the atmosphere where beta is less than 1, the magnetic field (through the Lorentz force) controls the structure and dynamics of the solar atmosphere, and rapid changes in structure with release of energy become possible. However, observations of the field at these higher levels have proven to be difficult, placing a serious limitation on our understanding of the physical processes occurring there. This poster will discuss the Solar Ultraviolet Magnetograph Investigation (SUMI), a hardware development study for an instrument capable of measuring the polarization in ultraviolet lines of C IV and Mg II formed in the transition region and upper chromosphere. We are currently developing optical technologies necessary to build an instrument that will achieve a major advance in performance over that of earlier attempts (e.g., SMM/UVSP). Initially configured as a sounding rocket payload, such a UV magnetograph would allow us to make exploratory measurements extending the observation of solar magnetic fields into new and dynamic regimes. This work is supported by NASA through the SEC Program in Solar Physics and the program for Technology Development for Explorer Missions and Sofia.
Davis, John M.↗
Energetic particles from the sun
Discussion of solar cosmic ray phenomena and related topics from the solar physical point of view. Since solar cosmic rays are usually produced by solar flares, it is necessary to understand the processes and mechanism of solar flares, especially the so-called proton flares, in order to understand the acceleration mechanism of solar cosmic rays and their behavior in both the solar atmosphere and interplanetary space. For this reason, a detailed discussion is given of various phenomena associated with solar flares, proton flare characteristics, and the mechanism of solar flares. Since the discovery of solar cosmic rays by Forbush, the interplanetary space has been thought of as a medium in which solar cosmic rays propagate. The propagation of solar cosmic rays in this space is therefore discussed briefly by referring to the observed magnetic properties of this space. Finally, some problems related to the physics of galactic cosmic rays are discussed.
Sakurai, K.↗
Unlocking the Sun's Secrets: Laboratory Insights into the Sun's Outer Atmosphere
The Sun’s corona, its outermost and hottest atmospheric layer, emits brightly in the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) and X-rays. This emission comes from atoms that have been highly ionized by the high temperature, forming a plasma of atomic ions and free electrons. By studying this light, scientists learn about the complex and dynamic drivers of solar activity. Many past, current, and future solar observatories focus on measuring EUV spectra from the Fe IX ion, as this ion provides powerful diagnostics for solar physics. Using Fe IX spectra, solar physicists can measure the plasma temperature, density, elemental abundances, and flow velocities in the corona. However, atomic data uncertainties concerning spectral line identification and plasma density diagnostics are a major problem for the accurate interpretation of these spectra.
74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
Guntersville Workshop on Solar-Terrestrial Studies
The separation of purely solar physics from magnetospheric physics, and the effects of solar activity on geomagnetic activity are investigations which can be accomplished using the shuttle orbiter in an extended sortie mode, or an unmanned solar terrestrial observatory powered by the power module in an extended duration mode. When the power module is used with the shuttle in a sortie support mode, both the instrument capacity and the time in orbit of the orbiter can be increased several fold. In the free-flyer mode, the power module would be capable of providing power, basic attitude control, basic thermal control and housekeeping communications for unmanned, large, independent mission payloads in low earth orbit for periods of 6 months or longer. Instrument requirements for interdisciplinary joint observational programs are discussed for studies of the magnetosphere, the atmosphere, sun-weather relationships. Description summary charts of the power module are included.
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Active cavity radiometer
The active cavity radiometer (ACR) experiment on the Spacelab 1 mission to measure the total solar irradiance is discussed. Short and long term variations in the total solar output of optical energy are studied. Solar total irradiance observation provides information on the solar cycle and other long term trends in solar output that are of climatological significance as well as short term solar physics phenomena. The interaction of solar radiation with the Earth's atmosphere, oceans, and land masses provides the primary driving forces for the formation of weather systems and the determination of climate. Astrophysical measurements determine the total energy flux. The principal role of the ACR observations support extended solar irradiance experiments on free flying satellites. Solar irradiance measurements are important in the establishment of the radiation scale at the solar total flux level in the international system of units (SI).
Willson, R. C.↗
Research and technology: Fiscal year 1984 report
Topics covered include extraterrestrial physics, high energy astrophysics, astronomy, solar physics, atmospheres, oceans, terrestrial physics, space technology, sensors, techniques, user space data systems, space communications and navigation, and system and software engineering.
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Hard X-ray and gamma-ray imaging spectroscopy for the next solar maximum
The objectives and principles are described of a single spectroscopic imaging package that can provide effective imaging in the hard X- and gamma-ray ranges. Called the High-Energy Solar Physics (HESP) mission instrument for solar investigation, the device is based on rotating modulation collimators with germanium semiconductor spectrometers. The instrument is planned to incorporate thick modulation plates, and the range of coverage is discussed. The optics permit the coverage of high-contrast hard X-ray images from small- and medium-sized flares with large signal-to-noise ratios. The detectors allow angular resolution of less than 1 arcsec, time resolution of less than 1 arcsec, and spectral resolution of about 1 keV. The HESP package is considered an effective and important instrument for investigating the high-energy solar events of the near-term future efficiently.
Hudson, H. S.↗
The Case for Comprehensive Spectroscopic Measurements of the Sun: Understanding Solar Flares and Coronal Heating
We discuss spectroscopic capabilities needed to resolve two important unresolved questions in solar physics, namely, ``What heats the solar corona?" and ``What causes the sudden, rapid release of energy that produces flares?" Spectroscopic capabilities needed to answer these questions include: (1) high spectral resolution, to enable measurement of unblended profiles of numerous emission lines; (2) high sensitivity with a wide dynamic range, to enable detection of faint line emission as well as weak wing components; (3) comprehensive temperature coverage, observing lines formed at log T separated by 0.1 or 0.2 dex between at least 20,000 K and 20 MK; (4) an absolute wavelength scale, to enable Doppler velocity measurements accurate to within 1 km/s or better; (5) simultaneous measurements over spatial area comparable in size to active regions (4' x 4'); (6) spatial resolution sufficient to resolve loop strands and the immediate vicinities of reconnection sites (<1''); (7) cadence short enough to monitor evolution of the solar atmosphere during periods of most rapid change (<1 s).
Jeffrey W Brosius↗
Solar and terrestrial physics
The effects of solar radiation on the near space and biomental earth, the upper atmosphere, and the magnetosphere are discussed. Data obtained from the OSO satellites pertaining to the solar cycle variation of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) radiation are analyzed. The effects of solar cycle variation of the characteristics of the solar wind are examined. The fluid mechanics of shock waves and the specific relationship to the characteristics of solar shock waves are investigated. The solar and corpuscular heating of the upper atmosphere is reported based on the findings of the AEROS and NATE experiments. Seasonal variations of the upper atmosphere composition are plotted based on OGO-6 mass spectrometer data.
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Solar Neutrino Detection with a Pixelated Liquid-Argon Time Projection Chamber
This thesis presents a study of low-energy solar neutrino detection using large-scale LArTPCs, focussing on novel pixelated readout technologies. Solar neutrinos offer a unique probe of fundamental neutrino properties and solar physics, but their detection in the MeV range is challenged by backgrounds. We investigate two complementary technologies: SoLAr, which integrates LArPix-based pixelated charge collection with Silicon Photomultipliers (SiPMs) in a hybrid anode design for simultaneous charge and light detection; and Q-Pix, a triggerless pixelated readout architecture based on charge integrate-reset circuits with local clocks, where Reset Time Differences encode ionisation waveforms via time-to-charge conversion. Two SoLAr prototypes were developed and operated, demonstrating VUV-sensitive SiPM performance in liquid argon and accurate charge-light signal matching with a charge detection threshold of $\sim 100 \mathrm{keV}$. We also implement a complete simulation and reconstruction framework, incorporating realistic detector geometry, electron transport, readout response, and detailed signal and background models, including intrinsic argon and radon progeny, as well as site-specific $\gamma$-ray and neutron fluxes. For Q-Pix, we demonstrate that with a pixel size of $4\times 4$ mm$^2$ and a reset threshold of 1 fC ($\sim 0.1475$ MeV), full-scale operation produces data volumes below 1 PB per 10 ktonne-year. For SoLAr, assuming a shielded DUNE-like detector and 100 ktonne-year exposure, we project uncertainties of $0.90\times 10^{-5}$ eV$^2$ on $\Delta m^2_{21}$ and 0.033 on $\sin^2\theta_{12}$, improving to $0.46\times 10^{-5}$ eV$^2$ and 0.025 with 400 kilotonne-year. At this higher exposure, we also obtain a day–night flux asymmetry at the level of $( -5.6 \pm 3.6 ) \%$. Combining Monte Carlo modelling, hardware validation, and advanced reconstruction techniques, this work establishes a path toward next-generation ktonne-scale LArTPCs as observatories for precision solar neutrino physics.
Ruiz Ferreira, Guilherme [Manchester U.] (ORCID:00↗
Nasa program planning in space sciences
Experiments & research in astronomy, solar physics, planetary atmospheres, ionospheres & radio physics, particles & fields, and biosciences
SPACE BIOLOGY↗
Early Spacelab physics and astronomy missions
Some of the scientific problems which will be investigated during the early Spacelab physics and astronomy missions are reviewed. The Solar Terrestrial Programs will include the Solar Physics Spacelab Payloads (SPSP) and the Atmospheres, Magnetospheres and Plasmas in Space (AMPS) missions. These missions will study the sun as a star and the influence of solar phenomena on the earth, including sun-solar wind interface, the nature of the solar flares, etc. The Astrophysics Spacelab Payloads (ASP) programs are divided into the Ultraviolet-Optical Astronomy and the High Energy Astrophysics areas. The themes of astrophysics Spacelab investigations will cover the nature of the universe, the fate of matter and the life cycles of stars. The paper discusses various scientific experiments and instruments to be used in the early Spacelab missions.
Chapman, R. D.↗
Application of similitude principle to the numerical simulation of solar atmospheric dynamics
Numerical simulation has become an essential part of solar physics because the complex nonlinear characteristics of solar phenomena makes analytical solutions difficult to obtain. Realistic simulation of the birth and decay of an active region still is not possible because of the wide range of spatial and time scales that must be considered. Therefore, proper scaling rules must be recognized for the development of appropriate models. In this paper, the similitude principle is applied to develop scaling rules. It is found that these rules are highly dependent on the physical nature of the specific problem under consideration. A set of 'similitude critiques' is presented for some specific physical conditions. Numerical examples of coronal dynamic response and active region dynamics are used to demonstrate these ideas.
Wu, S. T.↗
Estimating Surface Solar Irradiance Using Meteosat-8 Satellite for India and Surrounding Regions (2017-2019)
Using the Physical Solar Model, Version 3 (PSM V3), the National Renewable Energy Laboratory—in collaboration with the University of Wisconsin, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and Solar Consulting Services—produced modeled surface solar irradiance based on Meteosat-8 satellite cloud information. PSM V3 implements a physics-based radiative transfer approach to model surface solar irradiance using cloud properties processed from raw satellite data and ancillary data such as aerosol optical depth and precipitable water vapor from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2). Further, the modeled surface solar irradiance was validated using 10 high-quality ground measurement data from the Baseline Surface Radiation Network. The modeled data showed good correlation with the ground measurement, and the overall uncertainty is less than 35% for all validation locations. Because of the satellite viewing geometry, the Indian and European locations demonstrated higher uncertainties than the African locations, where the Meteosat-8 satellite has a more nadir viewing geometry. Further, instruction on how to access the data is provided.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
An efficient method to identify uncertainties of WRF-Solar variables in forecasting solar irradiance using a tangent linear sensitivity analysis
Uncertainty in predicting solar energy resources introduces major challenges in power system management and necessitates the development of reliable probabilistic solar forecasts. As the first part of the development of probabilistic forecasts based on the Weather Research and Forecasting model with solar extensions (WRF-Solar), this study presents a tangent linear approach to identify input variables responsible for the largest uncertainties in predicting surface solar irradiance and clouds. A tangent linear analysis is capable of efficiently investigating sensitivities of output variables with respect to various input variables of WRF-Solar because this approach avoids the computational burden of perturbing the initial conditions of individual input variables. We develop tangent linear models (TLMs) for six WRF-Solar physics packages that control the formation and dissipation of clouds and solar radiation, and we evaluate the validity of TLMs using a linearity test. The tangent linear sensitivity analysis is conducted under various scenarios based on satellite observations and model simulations to consider realistic input conditions. A simple method is used to quantify the impact of the uncertainty of input variables on the output variables from the TLMs. The results demonstrate that uncertainties in the output variables that are the focus of this study—including global horizontal irradiance, direct normal irradiance, cloud mixing ratio, cloud tendency, cloud fraction, and sensible and latent heat fluxes—are highly sensitive to uncertainties in 14 input variables. This study indicates that the tangent linear method can identify key variables of physics modules in WRF-Solar that can be stochastically perturbed to generate ensemble-based probabilistic forecasts.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗