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At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Identifying the sources of uncertainty in climate model simulations of solar radiation modification with the G6sulfur and G6solar Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) simulations

We present here results from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) simulations for the experiments G6sulfur and G6solar for six Earth system models participating in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Phase 6. The aim of the experiments is to reduce the warming that results from a high-tier emission scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP5-8.5) to that resulting from a medium-tier emission scenario (SSP2-4.5). These simulations aim to analyze the response of climate models to a reduction in incoming surface radiation as a means to reduce global surface temperatures, and they do so either by simulating a stratospheric sulfate aerosol layer or, in a more idealized way, through a uniform reduction in the solar constant in the model. We find that over the final two decades of this century there are considerable inter-model spreads in the needed injection amounts of sulfate (29 ± 9 Tg-SO 2 /yr between 2081 and 2100), in the latitudinal distribution of the aerosol cloud and in the stratospheric temperature changes resulting from the added aerosol layer. Even in the simpler G6solar experiment, there is a spread in the needed solar dimming to achieve the same global temperature target (1.91 ± 0.44 %). The analyzed models already show significant differences in the response to the increasing CO 2 concentrations for global mean temperatures and global mean precipitation (2.05 K ± 0.42 K and 2.28 ± 0.80 %, respectively, for SSP5-8.5 minus SSP2-4.5 averaged over 2081–2100). With aerosol injection, the differences in how the aerosols spread further change some of the underlying uncertainties, such as the global mean precipitation response (–3.79 ± 0.76 % for G6sulfur compared to –2.07 ± 0.40 % for G6solar against SSP2-4.5 between 2081 and 2100). These differences in the behavior of the aerosols also result in a larger uncertainty in the regional surface temperature response among models in the case of the G6sulfur simulations, suggesting the need to devise various, more specific experiments to single out and resolve particular sources of uncertainty. The spread in the modeled response suggests that a degree of caution is necessary when using these results for assessing specific impacts of geoengineering in various aspects of the Earth system. However, all models agree that compared to a scenario with unmitigated warming, stratospheric aerosol geoengineering has the potential to both globally and locally reduce the increase in surface temperatures.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS1996

Ra: The Sun for Science and Humanity

To guide the development of the Ra Strategic Framework, we defined scientific and applications objectives. For our primary areas of scientific interest, we choose the corona, the solar wind, the Sun's effect on the Earth, and solar theory and model development. For secondary areas of scientific interest, we selected sunspots, the solar constant, the Sun's gravitational field, helioseismology and the galactic cosmic rays. We stress the importance of stereoscopic imaging, observations at high spatial, spectral, and temporal resolutions, as well as of long duration measurements. Further exploration of the Sun's polar regions is also important, as shown already by the Ulysses mission. From an applications perspective, we adopted three broad objectives that would derive complementary inputs for the Strategic Framework. These were to identify and investigate: possible application spin-offs from science missions, possible solar-terrestrial missions dedicated to a particular application, and possible future applications that require technology development. The Sun can be viewed as both a source of resources and of threats. Our principal applications focus was that of threat mitigation, by examining ways to improve solar threat monitoring and early warning systems. We compared these objectives to the mission objectives of past, current, and planned international solar missions. Past missions (1962-1980) seem to have been focused on improvement of scientific knowledge, using multiple instrument spacecraft. A ten year gap followed this period, during which the results from previous missions were analyzed and solar study programmes were prepared in international organizations. Current missions (1990-1996) focus on particular topics such as the corona, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections. In planned missions, Sun/Earth interactions and environmental effects of solar activity are becoming more important. The corona is the centre of interest of almost all planned missions. It seems that no international long-term strategy has yet been adopted. For these plans the number of necessary future missions can be reduced and the onboard instrumentation can be optimized by performing a comparative analysis. The study of the corona must be done from different observing locations, orbits closer to the Sun, and by different means. The Cluster mission replacement is in progress; however, if the replacement is not implemented, the ISTP programme will fade after 1998. Furthermore, the physics of the Sun's interior should be emphasized more in the Mid- and Far-Term programmes. Finally, more emphasis should be placed on monitoring space weather and forecasting Sun/Earth interactions.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1987

Physical interpretation of variations in total solar irradiance

Radiometry from the Solar Maximum Mission and Nimbus 7 satellites has demonstrated that the solar constant varies at a peak-to-peak level of up to 0.2 percent on time scales of weeks. The rotation and evolution of dark spots and bright faculae across the sun's disk accounts for most of that variation. Reasonable explanations have been put forward to explain how the spot-blocked heat flow might be stored, and to explain the source of the intense radiation that gives rise to the increased irradiance produced by the bright magnetic faculae. Time-dependent models of the response of the solar convection zone to small perturbations also indicate that slower variations in total solar irradiance of comparable magnitude are likely. More precise observations of the total solar irradiance and radius over long time scales are required to demonstrate the existence of such climatologically relevant changes, and to test models that would enable the interpretation and prediction of these changes.

Foukal, P.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Is CO2 capable to keeping early Mars warm?

One of the goals of NASA's Exobiology Research Program is to determine whether life exists today on Mars (unlikely) or whether it might have existed there at some time in the past (more likely). Speculation about extinct life is driven by the observation of channels on the Martian surface, thought to indicate the past presence of liquid water and, hence, the existence of a warmer climate. Current thinking suggests that such a climate could have been maintained if early Mars had a dense CO2 atmosphere with a surface pressure of 1 to 5 bars. One of the phenomena that Martian climate modelers have not looked at very carefully is the process of CO2 condensation. Reexamination of some of my own calculations indicates that condensation should occur at high altitudes in some high-CO2, Martian atmospheres, particularly those in which the solar constant is set to its initial main sequence value (about 70 percent of present. CO2 condensation should affect the surface temperature in two ways: (1) if it occurs in the convective lower atmosphere, condensation will reduce the magnitude of the greenhouse effect by decreasing the lapse rate; and (2) condensation at any altitude will produce clouds, which can either warm or cool the climate depending on their altitude and optical depth. Preliminary calculations with a 1-D, radiative-convective climate model indicate that the lapse rate change is substantial for low solar luminosity models. Other aspects of this study are discussed.

Kasting, J. F.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Validation of Spacecraft Active Cavity Radiometer Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) Long Term Measurement Trends Using Proxy TSI Least Squares Analyses

Long-term, incoming total solar irradiance (TSI) measurement trends were validated using proxy TSI values, derived from indices of solar magnetic activity. Spacecraft active cavity radiometers (ACR) are being used to measure longterm TSI variability, which may trigger global climate changes. The TSI, typically referred to as the solar constant, was normalized to the mean earth-sun distance. Studies of spacecraft TSI data sets confirmed the existence of a 0.1 %, long-term TSI variability component within a 10-year period. The 0.1% TSI variability component is clearly present in the spacecraft data sets from the 1984-2004 time frame. Typically, three overlapping spacecraft data sets were used to validate long-term TSI variability trends. However, during the years of 1978-1984, 1989-1991, and 1993-1996, three overlapping spacecraft data sets were not available in order to validate TSI trends. The TSI was found to vary with indices of solar magnetic activity associated with recent 10-year sunspot cycles. Proxy TSI values were derived from least squares analyses of the measured TSI variability with the solar indices of 10.7-cm solar fluxes, and with limb-darked sunspot fluxes. The resulting proxy TSI values were compared to the spacecraft ACR measurements of TSI variability to detect ACR instrument degradation, which may be interpreted as TSI variability. Analyses of ACR measurements and TSI proxies are presented primarily for the 1984-2004, Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) ACR solar monitor data set. Differences in proxy and spacecraft measurement data sets suggest the existence of another TSI variability component with an amplitude greater than or equal to 0.5 Wm-2 (0.04%), and with a cycle of 20 years or more.

Lee, Robert Benjamin, III↗
DOE OSTI2024

Generation and Life Cycle of Solar Spicules

The physical mechanism for the creation of solar spicules is proposed with three stages of their life cycle. It is assumed that at stage I the density hump is formed locally in the x-y plane in the lower chromosphere in the presence of temperature gradients of electrons and ions along the z-axis (the vertical direction). In this region, the density structure of quasi-neutral (n i ≃ n e = n) plasma after taking birth is accelerated in the vertical direction owing to the thermal force F th ∝ ∇n(x, y, t) × (∇T e + ∇T i ). The exact time-dependent analytical solution of two-fluid plasma equations is presented assuming that density is maximum at the center of the density structure and decays away from it gradually. The 2D density structure is created as a step function H(t) in time at the bottom of the chromosphere, and consequently, the vertical plasma velocity turns out to be the ramp function of time R(t) = tH(t), whereas the source term S(x, y, t) for the density follows the delta function δ(t) form. The upward acceleration a = a(x, y) $\hat{z}$ produced in this density structure is greater than the downward constant solar acceleration −g ⊙ in the chromosphere. In the transition region, the temperature gradients are steeper; therefore, the upward acceleration increases in magnitude g ⊙ ≪ a and the density hump spends less time there. This is stage II of its life cycle. In stage III, the density structure enters into the corona, where the gradients of temperatures vanish and the structure decelerates to zero velocity under the action of the solar gravitational force.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Southern hemisphere midlatitude circulation response to rapid adjustments and sea surface temperature driven feedbacks

Rapid adjustments – the response of meteorology to external forcing while sea surface temperatures (SST) and sea ice are held fixed – can affect the midlatitude circulation and contribute to long-term forced circulation responses in climate simulations. This study examines rapid adjustments in the Southern hemisphere (SH) circulation using nine models from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP), which perform fixed SST and coupled ocean experiments for five perturbations: a doubling of carbon dioxide (2xCO2), a tripling of methane (3xCH4), a five-fold increase in sulphate aerosol (5xSO4), a ten-fold increase in black carbon aerosol (10xBC) and a 2% increase in solar constant (2%Sol). In the coupled experiments, the SH eddy-driven jet shifts poleward and strengthens for forcings that produce global warming (and vice versa for 5xSO4), with the strongest response found in austral summer. In austral winter, the responses project more strongly onto a change in jet strength. For 10xBC, which induces strong shortwave absorption, the multi-model mean (MMM) rapid adjustment in DJF jet latitude is ~75% of the change in the coupled simulations. For the other forcings, which induce larger SST changes, the effect of SST-mediated feedbacks on the SH circulation is larger than the rapid adjustment. Nevertheless, for these perturbations the magnitude of the MMM jet shift due to the rapid adjustment is still around 25-33% of that in the coupled experiments. The results demonstrate the need to understand the mechanisms for rapid adjustments in the midlatitude circulation, in addition to the effect of changing SSTs.

Wood, Thomas↗
DOE OSTI2021

North Atlantic Oscillation response in GeoMIP experiments G6solar and G6sulfur: why detailed modelling is needed for understanding regional implications of solar radiation management

The realization of the difficulty of limiting global-mean temperatures to within 1.5 or 2.0°C above pre-industrial levels stipulated by the 21st Conference of Parties in Paris has led to increased interest in solar radiation management (SRM) techniques. Proposed SRM schemes aim to increase planetary albedo to reflect more sunlight back to space and induce a cooling that acts to partially offset global warming. Under the auspices of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project, we have performed model experiments whereby global temperature under the high-forcing SSP5-8.5 scenario is reduced to follow that of the medium-forcing SSP2-4.5 scenario. Two different mechanisms to achieve this are employed: the first via a reduction in the solar constant (experiment G6solar) and the second via modelling injections of sulfur dioxide (experiment G6sulfur) which forms sulfate aerosol in the stratosphere. Results from two state-of-the-art coupled Earth system models (UKESM1 and CESM2-WACCM6) both show an impact on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in G6sulfur but not in G6solar. Both models show a persistent positive anomaly in the NAO during the Northern Hemisphere winter season in G6sulfur, suggesting an increase in zonal flow and an increase in North Atlantic storm track activity impacting the Eurasian continent and leading to high-latitude warming over Europe and Asia. These results are broadly consistent with previous findings which show similar impacts from stratospheric volcanic aerosol on the NAO and emphasize that detailed modelling of geoengineering processes is required if accurate impacts of SRM effects are to be simulated. Differences remain between the two models in predicting regional changes over the continental USA and Africa, suggesting that more models need to perform such simulations before attempting to draw any conclusions regarding potential continental-scale climate change under SRM.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1970

Model study of plasmapause motion

Plasmapause motion in equatorial plane under sudden dawn-dusk field with constant solar wind- magnetosphere interaction

Grebowsky, J. M.↗
NASA NTRS1972

A 400 kilowatt argon arc lamp for solar simulation

A 400 kilowatt argon arc lamp for a solar simulator has been designed, operated, and evaluated. The lamp is designed to produce one solar constant on a test area 4.6 by 9.2 meters when used with a collimator. The divergence angle of the beam is about 1 deg. The lamp is designed to operate completely within a vacuum environment. Over 80 kilowatt of directed radiation was monitored and measured for a 25-hour period during a recent test. In another test, an arc was operated at 400 kilowatt for 110 hours without removal or refurbishing of the electrodes. These tests have proven the cleanliness and integrity of the radiation source.

Decker, A. J.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Measurements of the energy exchange between earth and space from satellites during the 1960's

The net radiation budget of the earth-atmosphere system can be obtained from satellite measurements of the infrared radiant emittance and reflected and scattered solar radiation along with a knowledge of the solar constant. During the 1960's experimental and operational meteorological satellites carrying thermistor bolometer sensors were in orbit for about 60 months. Results from these measurements are given including: a global planetary albedo of 30%, long-term global radiation balance within measurement accuracy (2-3%), the net equator-to-pole radiation gradients that drive our atmospheric and oceanic circulations, as well as selected measurements of radiation budget terms over particular geographical areas.

Vonderhaar, T. H.↗
NASA NTRS1973

The radiation balance of the earth-atmosphere system from Nimbus 3 radiation measurements

The radiation balance of the earth-atmosphere system and its components was computed from global measurements of radiation reflected and emitted from the earth to space. These measurements were made from the meteorological satellite Nimbus 3 during the periods from April 16 to August 15, 1969; October 3 to 17, 1969; and January 21 to February 3, 1970. Primarily the method of evaluation, its inherent assumptions, and possible error sources were discussed. Results are presented by various methods: (1) global, hemispherical, and zonal averages obtained from measurements in all semimonthly periods and (2) global maps of the absorbed solar radiation, the albedo, the outgoing longwave radiation, and the radiation balance obtained from measurements during semimonthly periods in each season (May 1 to 15, July 16 to 31, and October 3 to 17, 1969, and January 21 to February 3, 1970). Annual global averages of the albedo and of the outgoing longwave radiation were determined. These values balance to within 1 percent the annual global energy input by solar radiation that was computed for a solar constant.

Raschke, E.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Radiation measurements from polar and geosynchronous satellites

During the 1960's, radiation budget measurements from satellites have allowed quantitative study of the global energetics of our atmosphere-ocean system. A continuing program is planned, including independent measurement of the solar constant. Thus far, the measurements returned from two basically different types of satellite experiments are in agreement on the long term global scales where they are most comparable. This fact, together with independent estimates of the accuracy of measurement from each system, shows that the energy exchange between earth and space is now measured better than it can be calculated. Examples of application of the radiation budget data were shown. They can be related to the age-old problem of climate change, to the basic question of the thermal forcing of our circulation systems, and to the contemporary problems of local area energetics and computer modeling of the atmosphere.

Vonderhaar, T. H.↗
NASA NTRS1973

The effect of large-scale eddies on climatic change.

A parameterization for the fluxes of sensible heat by large-scale eddies developed in an earlier paper is incorporated into a model for the mean temperature structure of an atmosphere including only these fluxes and the radiative fluxes. The climatic changes in this simple model are then studied in order to assess the strength of the dynamical feedback and to gain insight into how dynamical parameters may change in more sophisticated climatic models. The model shows the following qualitative changes: (1) an increase in the solar constant leads to increased static stability, decreased dynamic stability, and stronger horizontal and vertical winds; (2) an increase in the amount of atmospheric absorption leads to decreased static and dynamic stability, and stronger horizontal and vertical winds; and (3) an increase in rotation rate leads to greater static and dynamic stability, weaker horizontal winds, and stronger vertical winds.

Stone, P. H.↗
NASA NTRS1973

High voltage solar cell power generating system for regulated solar array development

A laboratory solar power system regulated by on-panel switches has been delivered for operating high power (3 kw), high voltage (15,000 volt) loads (communication tubes, ion thrusters). The modular system consists of 26 solar arrays, each with an integral light source and cooling system. A typical array contains 2560 series-connected cells. Each light source consists of twenty 500 watt tungsten iodide lamps providing plus or minus 5 per cent uniformity at one solar constant. An array temperature of less than 40 C is achieved using an infrared filter, a water cooled plate, a vacuum hold-down system, and air flushing.

Levy, E., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1974

High voltage solar cell power generating system

A laboratory solar power system regulated by on-panel switches has been delivered for operating high power (3 kW), high voltage (15,000 volt) loads (communication tubes, ion thrusters). The modular system consists of 26 solar arrays, each with an integral light source and cooling system. A typical array contains 2,560 series-connected cells. Each light source consists of twenty 500-watt tungsten iodide lamps providing plus or minus 5 percent uniformity at one solar constant. An array temperature of less than 40 C is achieved using an infrared filter, a water-cooled plate, a vacuum hold-down system, and air flushing.

Levy, E., Jr.↗