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At least 181 records · Page 10

Landslides in West Coast Metropolitan Areas: The Role of Extreme Weather Events

Rainfall-induced landslides represent a pervasive issue in areas where extreme rainfall intersects complex terrain. A farsighted management of landslide risk requires assessing how landslide hazard will change in coming decades and thus requires, inter alia, that we understand what rainfall events are most likely to trigger landslides and how global warming will affect the frequency of such weather events. We take advantage of 9 years of landslide occurrence data compiled by collating Google news reports and of a high-resolution satellite-based daily rainfall data to investigate what weather triggers landslide along the West Coast US. We show that, while this landslide compilation cannot provide consistent and widespread monitoring everywhere, it captures enough of the events in the major urban areas that it can be used to identify the relevant relationships between landslides and rainfall events in Puget Sound, the Bay Area, and greater Los Angeles. In all these regions, days that recorded landslides have rainfall distributions that are skewed away from dry and low-rainfall accumulations and towards heavy intensities. However, large daily accumulation is the main driver of enhanced hazard of landslides only in Puget Sound. There, landslide are often clustered in space and time and major events are primarily driven by synoptic scale variability, namely "atmospheric rivers" of high humidity air hitting anywhere along the West Coast, and the interaction of frontal system with the coastal orography. The relationship between landslide occurrences and daily rainfall is less robust in California, where antecedent precipitation (in the case of the Bay area) and the peak intensity of localized downpours at sub-daily time scales (in the case of Los Angeles) are key factors not captured by the same-day accumulations. Accordingly, we suggest that the assessment of future changes in landslide hazard for the entire the West Coast requires consideration of future changes in the occurrence and intensity of atmospheric rivers, in their duration and clustering, and in the occurrence of short-duration (sub-daily) extreme rainfall as well. Major regional landslide events, in which multiple occurrences are recorded in the catalog for the same day, are too rare to allow a statistical characterization of their triggering events, but a case study analysis indicates that a variety of synoptic-scale events can be involved, including not only atmospheric rivers but also broader cold- and warm-front precipitation. That a news-based catalog of landslides is accurate enough to allow the identification of different landslide/ rainfall relationships in the major urban areas along the US West Coast suggests that this technology can potentially be used for other English-language cities and could become an even more powerful tool if expanded to other languages and non-traditional news sources, such as social media.

landslides↗

Exploring Natural and Social Drivers of Forest Degradation in Post-Soviet Georgia

The Caucasus Mountains harbor high concentrations of endemic species and provide an abundance of ecosystem services yet are significantly understudied compared to other ecosystems in Eurasia. In the country of Georgia, at the heart of the Caucasus region, forest degradation has been the largest land change process over the last thirty years. The prevailing narrative is that legal and illegal cutting of trees for fuelwood is primarily responsible for this process. Yet, since independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, the country has undergone rapid socioeconomic and institutional changes which have not been explored as drivers of forest change. We combine newly available land-cover change estimates, Georgian statistical data, and historical institutional change data to examine socioeconomic drivers of forest degradation. Our analysis controls for concurrent changes in climate that would affect degradation and examines variation at the regional (state) level from 2011 to 2019, as well as at the national level from 1987 to 2019. We find that higher winter temperature and drought are associated with higher degradation at the regional scale, while major institutional changes and drought are associated with higher forest degradation at the national level. Access to natural gas, the major energy alternative to fuelwood, had no significant association with degradation. Our results challenge the narrative that poverty and a lack of alternative energy infrastructure drive forest degradation and suggest that government policies banning household fuelwood cutting, including the new Forest Code of 2020, may not reduce forest degradation. Given these results, improved data on wood harvesting and more research on the commercial drivers of degradation and their links to economic and political reforms is needed to better inform forest policy in the region, especially given ongoing risks from climate change.

Institutions↗

Human behavioral research in space: quandaries for research subjects and researchers

With the advent of long-duration spaceflight on board the International Space Station (ISS) and possible future missions beyond low Earth orbit (LEO) such as Mars, it is critical that those at NASA have a realistic assessment of the challenges that will face individuals on long-duration missions so that they can develop preventive and real-time countermeasures to behavioral health issues. While space travellers are very interested in having countermeasures to the deleterious effects of space missions, they have a powerful disincentive to participate in this research if they feel it could in any way negatively affect their flight status. The behavioral issues of isolation and confinement for extended-duration space missions are reviewed. Areas of basic and clinical behavioral research are listed. And the classical clinical model for research is not considered appropriate for the current configuration of the space program. The use of analogue environments and advanced statistical analysis are suggested as ways to address the limited spaceflight research opportunities. The challenge of research subject or patient confidentiality vs. mission safety and issues of personal flight status are addressed.

Review, Tutorial↗

Hydrogen production from solar energy

Three alternatives for hydrogen production from solar energy have been analyzed on both efficiency and economic grounds. The analysis shows that the alternative using solar energy followed by thermochemical decomposition of water to produce hydrogen is the optimum one. The other schemes considered were the direct conversion of solar energy to electricity by silicon cells and water electrolysis, and the use of solar energy to power a vapor cycle followed by electrical generation and electrolysis. The capital cost of hydrogen via the thermochemical alternative was estimated at $575/kW of hydrogen output or $3.15/million Btu. Although this cost appears high when compared with hydrogen from other primary energy sources or from fossil fuel, environmental and social costs which favor solar energy may prove this scheme feasible in the future.

Eisenstadt, M. M.↗

A Parallel Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm Accelerated by Asynchronous Evaluations

A parallel Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm is presented. Particle swarm optimization is a fairly recent addition to the family of non-gradient based, probabilistic search algorithms that is based on a simplified social model and is closely tied to swarming theory. Although PSO algorithms present several attractive properties to the designer, they are plagued by high computational cost as measured by elapsed time. One approach to reduce the elapsed time is to make use of coarse-grained parallelization to evaluate the design points. Previous parallel PSO algorithms were mostly implemented in a synchronous manner, where all design points within a design iteration are evaluated before the next iteration is started. This approach leads to poor parallel speedup in cases where a heterogeneous parallel environment is used and/or where the analysis time depends on the design point being analyzed. This paper introduces an asynchronous parallel PSO algorithm that greatly improves the parallel e ciency. The asynchronous algorithm is benchmarked on a cluster assembled of Apple Macintosh G5 desktop computers, using the multi-disciplinary optimization of a typical transport aircraft wing as an example.

Venter, Gerhard↗

NASA’s Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) and Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE) Social Network and Community of Practice

The NASA Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) and Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE) have been planned and funded by the NASA Earth Science Division. Both programs have a focus on engaging stakeholders and developing science useful for decision making. The resulting programs have funded significant scientific output and advancements in understanding how satellite remote sensing observations can be used to not just study how the Earth is changing, but also create data products that are of high utility to stakeholders and decisions makers. In this paper we focus on documenting thematic diversity of research themes and methods used, and how the CMS and ABoVE themes are related. We do this through developing a Correlated Topic Model on the 521 papers produced by the two programs and plotting the results in a network diagram. Through analysis of the themes in these papers, we document the relationships between researchers and institutions participating in CMS and ABoVE programs and the benefits from sustained engagement with stakeholders due to recurring funding. We note an absence of policy engagement in the papers and conclude that funded researchers need to be more ambitious and explicit in drawing the connection between their research and carbon policy implications in order to meet the stated goals of the CMS and ABoVE programs.

Molly E Brown↗

ICME: The Design of Fit-for-Purpose Materials

With the increased emphasis on reducing the cost and time to market of new materials, ICME (Integrated Computational Materials Engineering) has become a fast growing discipline within materials science and engineering. The vision of ICME is compelling in many respects, not only for the value added in reducing time to market for new products with advanced, tailored materials, but also for enhanced efficiency and performance of these materials. Although the challenges and barriers (both technical and cultural) are formidable, substantial cost, schedule, and technical benefits can result from broad development, implementation, and validation of ICME principles. ICME is an integrated approach to the design of products, and the materials that comprise them, by linking material and structural models at multiple time and length scales. NASA’s Transformational Tools and Technology (TTT) Project sponsored a study (performed by a team led by Pratt & Whitney) in 2016 to define the potential 25-year future state required for integrated multiscale modeling of materials and systems (e.g., load-bearing structures) to accelerate the pace and reduce the expense of innovation in future aerospace and aeronautical systems. This talk will briefly review ICME, the findings of the 2040 Vision study, and discuss NASA’s TTT 2040 implementation activities: with special emphasis on recent accomplishments. The 2040 study, NASA CR 2018- 219771, envisions the development of a cyber-physical-social ecosystem comprised of experimentally verified and validated computational models, tools, and techniques, along with the associated digital tapestry, that impacts the entire supply chain to enable cost-effective, rapid, and revolutionary design of fit-for-purpose materials, components, and systems by enabling the engineer to not only “design-with-the” material but also concurrently “design-the” material.

multiscale analysis↗

Cali Urban Development II: Investigating the Impacts of Land Use Change on Urban Heat and Social Vulnerability in Cali, Colombia

The surface urban heat island (SUHI) effect is an environmental phenomenon resulting in cities with higher temperatures than rural areas due to increased pavement and decreased cooling from vegetation. The city of Santiago de Cali in Colombia faces SUHI challenges exacerbated by land use change. The Cali municipal government agency, Departamento Administrativo de Gestión del Medio Ambiente, and the community organization Fundacion Dinamizadores Ambientales partnered with NASA DEVELOP to evaluate communities in Cali most vulnerable to urban heat. This project illustrated the utility of using NASA Earth observations to evaluate the relationship between land use, temperature, and social factors in Cali, Colombia between 2013 and 2023. The team used Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) and Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS), and Landsat 9 OLI-2/TIRS-2 to generate land surface temperature (LST) maps in Google Earth Engine through NASA DEVELOP’s Urban Heat Exposure Assessment Tempe 2.0 tool. Cloud cover limited the project feasibility, but it improved with Landsat 9 data. In ArcGIS Pro, the team found that LST was significantly higher in urban areas than in wetlands or forests. Using R Studio, the team ran a principal component analysis and found that health care and green space access were negatively correlated, and Afro-Colombian ethnicity was positively correlated with LST. With knowledge of the most impacted and vulnerable regions, the partner organizations can prioritize establishing healthcare facilities and green spaces in those areas to reduce the impacts of urban heat.

vegetation loss↗

Design and implementation of a pilot orientation program for new NASA engineering employees

This paper describes the design and field testing of an orientation program for new employees of NASA Lewis Research Center's Engineering Directorate. A group of new employees designed the program using a series of TQM analysis techniques. The program objectives were: provide consistent treatment for new employees; assist management and clerical staff with their responsibility for orientation; introduce the employee to as many facets of the organization as possible; allow the employee to feel like a member of the organization as early as possible; maximize the use of existing services; and use up-to-date information. The major aspects of the program included: training of management and clerical staff; lab tours and briefings describing the organization; shepherding, using senior employees as shepherds; a handbook of information about the center and the directorate; a package of information about northeast Ohio; and social activities involving the new employees and shepherds. The program was tested on a pilot group of six new employees over a four month period and was considered to be highly successful by both the employees and management. Aspects of the program have subsequently been adopted for center-wide use.

Graham, Ronald E.↗

Evaluating Flood Forecasting System Performance in Cambodia During the 2019 Flood Season

Every year, Cambodia experiences both flash and prolonged riverine flooding as a result of monsoon rains and typhoons. Floods occur frequently in various parts of the region, and result in significant economic cost. Flood forecasting systems are designed to mitigate economic and social impacts, enabling people to prepare for extreme events. However, in order for forecasts to be used effectively, an assessment of the available forecasting systems is needed. In addition, following the onset of flooding, satellite imagery is used to generate flood maps to aid in response efforts. This study demonstrates the performance of regional and global flood forecasting systems over the 2019 flood season. To do this, we assess the flood forecast accuracy at different forecast lead times through a series of forecast verification metrics at gauge locations in Cambodia. We then compare the flood forecast performance to Sentinel 1 flood maps produced by the Hydrological Remote Sensing Analysis of Floods (HYDRAFloods) tool currently being co-developed by SERVIR-Mekong in collaboration with the Myanmar Department of Disaster Management. This assessment of the flood forecasting systems’ performance and comparison to generated flood maps helps provide context to forecasters and disaster managers as they make improvements to their models. Additionally, these results provide support to forecast users as they evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of different systems for taking action.

Nauman, Claire M.↗

The MATHEMATICA economic analysis of the Space Shuttle System

Detailed economic analysis shows the Thrust Assisted Orbiter Space Shuttle System (TAOS) to be the most economic Space Shuttle configuration among the systems studied. The development of a TAOS Shuttle system is economically justified within a level of space activities between 300 and 360 Shuttle flights in the 1979-1990 period, or about 25 to 30 flights per year, well within the U.S. Space Program including NASA and DoD missions. If the NASA and DoD models are taken at face value (624 flights), the benefits of the Shuttle system are estimated to be $13.9 billion with a standard deviation of plus or minus $1.45 billion in 1970 dollars (at a 10% social rate of discount). If the expected program is modified to 514 flights (in the 1979-1990 period), the estimated benefits of the Shuttle system are $10.2 billion, with a standard deviation of $940 million (at a 10% social rate of discount).

Heiss, K. P.↗

Developing closed life support systems for large space habitats

In anticipation of possible large-scale, long-duration space missions which may be conducted in the future, NASA has begun to investigate the research and technology development requirements to create life support systems for large space habitats. An analysis suggests the feasibility of a regeneration of food in missions which exceed four years duration. Regeneration of food in space may be justified for missions of shorter duration when large crews must be supported at remote sites such as lunar bases and space manufacturing facilities. It is thought that biological components consisting principally of traditional crop and livestock species will prove to be the most acceptable means of closing the food cycle. A description is presented of the preliminary results of a study of potential biological components for large space habitats. Attention is given to controlled ecosystems, Russian life support system research, controlled-environment agriculture, and the social aspects of the life-support system.

Phillips, J. M.↗

Workforce for the Future Development of Space Access Vehicles

The development of advanced vehicles that will travel between planetary surfaces with atmospheres and space requires the availability of experimental and computational capabilities that accomplish the research leading to new technologies and the development, test, and evaluation (RDT&E) of new flight systems. The United States is at risk of not having the required RDT&E workforce – qualified and in sufficient numbers – in place and ready to meet the future market’s commercial and defense needs. Systemic challenges include uncertain Federal budgets that limit and interrupt government research and development, the projectized nature of new space access systems that drive boom/bust cycles, an aging aerospace workforce (compounded by a mid-age demographic gap), limited to declining investment in sustaining and advancing experimental and computational tools infrastructure, lack of standards for sharing (and leveraging) data, dramatically changing technologies, changing social norms, and potentially large increases in commercial market needs. Flight systems have mission-based trajectories to and from space and designers must ensure risk is properly assessed across the entire trajectory. Thus, physics questions must be answered at each stage of flight, which requires a suite of experimental and computational tools. The RDT&E workforce utilizing these tools include subject matter experts from the producers, interested in acquiring data and information on the product, and from the capabilities being utilized, interested in addressing the product customer’s needs (providing robust data collection techniques, data quality, timeliness – available when needed, efficient with cost management, and teaming on data analysis). This requires a range of skills – in addition to aerospace, other engineers, and software developers, a highly trained and certified craft and technician workforce is critical to future success. This paper will present a human resources construct that addresses the system of needs for people – including, but more than just technical skills and an application of that construct in the hypersonic Test and Evaluation (T&E) community. This is part of a larger AIAA effort to document challenges and associated best practices for the aerospace RDT&E workforce.

Steven C Dunn↗

Coronado Ecological Conservation: Assessing Vegetation Change Due to Border Wall Construction and Shifting Social Trails

Species monitoring is essential in mitigating the impacts of plant invasion, such as radical changes in an area’s ecosystem, degraded soil health, increased wildfire severity, landslides, and increased flooding. NASA DEVELOP partnered with the National Park Service (NPS) to investigate invasive species in disturbed lands: specifically, areas affected by off-trail walking and US-Mexico border construction activities. The team assessed how construction has impacted the distribution of Lehmann’s lovegrass and Russian thistle invasives throughout Coronado National Memorial, AZ from 1986 to 2022. Using data from Landsat 5 and 8, Sentinel-2, the National Agriculture Imagery Program, and PlanetScope, the team computed vegetation indices including the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, Normalized Difference Moisture Index, Modified Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index 2, Enhanced Vegetation Index, and Tasseled Cap Wetness, Brightness, and Greenness transformations as vegetation health indicators to input into various machine learning algorithms. To minimize noise, the team conducted Principal Component Analysis on the vegetation indices and spectral bands before running k-means++ clustering and random forest classification algorithms. Between all datasets, we found the median area fully overtaken by invasive plants was 5.37% of the park’s total area in 2022. The NPS will use the end products to help increase restoration efforts in disturbed areas with high concentrations of invasive plants. The NPS’s collection of ground data for 2022–2023, in conjunction with future data collection, will notably improve the accuracy of classification models, leading to more precise monitoring of invasive spread over time.

Carson Schuetze↗

NASA GRC ICME Schema for Materials Data Management: An Executive Summary

Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) has received a growing emphasis in attention due its potential impact on rapid material design, reduction in cost and time to market for new applications, and the promise of ‘fit-for-purpose’ materials coupled with recent advances in high performance computing and material characterization tools. However, for an organization to implement ICME practices for material discovery and design, a series of both technical and cultural challenges must be overcome to foster an environment that enables efficient, traceable, and predictive multiscale simulations of material behavior to enable virtual design of materials. In 2016, NASA sponsored a 2040 Vision study to define the potential 25-year future state required for integrated multiscale modeling of materials and systems to improve both the associated time and cost for aerospace and aeronautical innovation. The study envisions a cyber-physical-social ecosystem of experimentally validated computational models, tools, and techniques, along with the associated digital tapestry, that can enable rapid, optimized, ‘fit-for-purpose’ design of materials, components, and systems. A key requirement for such an ecosystem is the development of a robust information management system for materials across their full lifecycle, including material pedigree, experimental (real) and virtual (simulation) data, developed material models, and the implementation of models in engineering applications, such that process-structure-property-performance relationships can be established, thereby enabling the virtual design and optimization of materials. Such an information management system must be able to effectively capture: i) material information at each length scale; ii) test data and analysis; iii) associated material models; and iv) material and model deployment in engineering applications. These systems must also provide traceability between experimental and virtual representations of the material to ensure, when appropriate, the material digital twin is maintained. Additionally, this robust material information management system must be able to seamlessly connect with both commercial and an organization’s in-house software tools, be they analysis tools, other material databases, product lifecycle management (PLM) or simulation data management (SDM) tools, etc., such that automation of the design and analysis of a material across multiple length scales is possible. In this paper, an executive summary of the NASA GRC ICME Schema for materials information management is presented. The database best practices and schema design philosophy specifically for ICME materials data management and an overview description of each element in the schema is given, along with its associated role in an ICME workflow. Additionally, auxiliary tools that interact with the database and provide judicious automation with regards to importing, exporting, and analyzing materials data are presented. Such tools are critical to an ICME ecosystem, not only for their role in enabling optimization, but also in relieving users of tedious manual tasks, thus helping to promote adoption and combat the cultural challenges organizations face in enabling ICME.

Materials↗

Automating Mid- and Long-Range Scheduling for the NASA Deep Space Network

NASA has recently deployed a new mid-range scheduling system for the antennas of the Deep Space Network (DSN), called Service Scheduling Software, or S(sup 3). This system was designed and deployed as a modern web application containing a central scheduling database integrated with a collaborative environment, exploiting the same technologies as social web applications but applied to a space operations context. This is highly relevant to the DSN domain since the network schedule of operations is developed in a peer-to-peer negotiation process among all users of the DSN. These users represent not only NASA's deep space missions, but also international partners and ground-based science and calibration users. The initial implementation of S(sup 3) is complete and the system has been operational since July 2011. This paper describes some key aspects of the S(sup 3) system and on the challenges of modeling complex scheduling requirements and the ongoing extension of S(sup 3) to encompass long-range planning, downtime analysis, and forecasting, as the next step in developing a single integrated DSN scheduling tool suite to cover all time ranges.

Deep Space Network↗

Wichita Climate II: Quantifying and Mapping Urban Heat to Inform Equitable and Sustainable Urban Planning Initiatives in Wichita, Kansas

Wichita, Kansas is experiencing a host of climate threats, particularly extreme heat manifested through Urban Heat Islands (UHI). Heat is unevenly distributed within cities due to factors such as income inequality, historical discriminatory practices like redlining, and divestment in neighborhoods of color. This leads to less vegetation and more heat-absorbing infrastructure in specific communities. Moreover, adverse effects of heat, including heat-related morbidity and mortality, disproportionately impact populations that experience vulnerability through social inequities and structural discrimination. Heat vulnerability is a combination of the factors of heat exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity, and can be harnessed to guide urban heat interventions. This DEVELOP project partnered with the City of Wichita to understand the spatial distribution and drivers of UHIs and heat vulnerability indicators. The team modeled outcomes of tree cover interventions using Landsat 8’s Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS) and Operational Land Imager (OLI), Landsat 9 TIRS-2 and OLI-2, and the International Space Station’s Ecosystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on the International Space Station (ECOSTRESS) sensor, along with the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) Urban Cooling model. The team also leveraged statistical analysis by implementing principal component analysis to develop a heat vulnerability index (HVI) specific to Wichita. Ultimately, the project’s outputs will inform the City of Wichita’s Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Plan, identify priority areas for heat mitigation initiatives, and be used in public-facing communications to educate communities on the impacts of urban heat.

Environmental Justice↗

Theorizing Land Cover and Land Use Change: The Peasant Economy of Colonization in the Amazon Basin

This paper addresses deforestation processes in the Amazon basin. It deploys a methodology combining remote sensing and survey-based fieldwork to examine, with regression analysis, the impact household structure and economic circumstances on deforestation decisions made by colonist farmers in the forest frontiers of Brazil. Unlike most previous regression-based studies, the methodology implemented analyzes behavior at the level of the individual property. The regressions correct for endogenous relationships between key variables, and spatial autocorrelation, as necessary. Variables used in the analysis are specified, in part, by a theoretical development integrating the Chayanovian concept of the peasant household with spatial considerations stemming from von Thuenen. The results from the empirical model indicate that demographic characteristics of households, as well as market factors, affect deforestation in the Amazon. Thus, statistical results from studies that do not include household-scale information may be subject to error. From a policy perspective, the results suggest that environmental policies in the Amazon based on market incentives to small farmers may not be as effective as hoped, given the importance of household factors in catalyzing the demand for land. The paper concludes by noting that household decisions regarding land use and deforestation are not independent of broader social circumstances, and that a full understanding of Amazonian deforestation will require insight into why poor families find it necessary to settle the frontier in the first place.

Caldas, Marcellus↗