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Three-dimensional paganica fault morphology obtained from hypocenter clustering (L'Aquila 2009 seismic sequence, Central Italy)

In seismic modelling, fault planes are normally assumed to be flat due to the lack of data which can constrain fault morphology. However, incorporating 3D fault morphology is important for modelling several phenomena, for example calculating mainshock induced stress changes. Here we utilize a data-analytical method to unveil the 3D rupture morphology of faults using unsupervised clustering techniques applied to earthquake hypocenters in seismic sequences. We apply this method to the 2009 L'Aquila seismic sequence which involved a M W 6.1 mainshock on April 6th. We use a dataset of about 50,000 relocated events, mostly microearthquakes, reaching magnitude of completeness equal to 0.7. Clustering distinguishes the earthquakes as occurring in three main clusters along with other minor fault segments. We then represent the morphology of the main Paganica fault system (responsible for the largest mainshock) using splines. This method shows promise as a step toward robustly and quickly obtaining 3D rupture morphologies where earthquake sequences have been monitored. The 3D model is presented interactively online, and the processing is presented in an interactive Jupyter Notebook (https://bit.ly/2MnCFdj).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

SUBTASK 1.6 – BASIN ELECTRIC CARBON STORAGE RESEARCH PROJECT: NOVEL MONITORING TECHNIQUES

The Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) conducted baseline activities associated with an applied research project at Basin Electric Power Cooperative’s (Basin’s) carbon capture and storage (CCS) site in Beulah, North Dakota, to establish novel carbon storage-monitoring techniques as commercial methods under Cooperative Agreement No. DE-FE0024233, Subtask 1.6. The following report summarizes the baseline activities performed and briefly describes the subsequent (operational monitoring) activities that have been proposed to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) as part of the overall project to develop and demonstrate novel monitoring techniques at North America’s largest permitted CCS operation. Dakota Gasification Company (DGC), a wholly owned subsidiary of Basin, owns and operates the Great Plains Synfuels Plant (GPSP) approximately 5 miles northwest of the town of Beulah, North Dakota (Figure 1). In 2023, DGC received approval from the North Dakota Industrial Commission (NDIC) to develop a storage facility on-site for injecting a stream of carbon dioxide (CO2) captured from GPSP. DGC will transport the captured CO2 stream with approximately 6.8 miles of transmission lines that extend north of GPSP and inject >1 million tonnes (MMt) of CO2 annually (>1 MMt/yr) over a 12-year period with up to six underground injection control (UIC) Class VI-compliant injection wells completed in the Broom Creek Formation, a predominantly sandstone reservoir and saline aquifer underlying GPSP. The Broom Creek Formation lies approximately 5900 feet (ft) below ground surface (bgs) at GPSP. The commercial scale (i.e., >1 MMt/yr) of DGC’s permitted carbon storage project is ideal for developing and testing the novel monitoring techniques included within Subtask 1.6. The goals of this project are to demonstrate 1) the cost-effectiveness of novel monitoring technologies included as part of this research, 2) technology capability for tracking the CO2 plume and/or associated pressure response in the subsurface and monitoring out-of-zone migration, and 3) compliance with UIC Class VI program requirements. The research activities proposed for the overall project include 1) design of an automated, integrated, modular (AIM) monitoring station; 2) time-lapse electromagnetic (EM) field surveys; 3) drone-based surveillance studies; 4) time-lapse monitoring with seismic methods; 5) advanced wellbore-monitoring methods; 6) deployment of an AIM monitoring network; 7) EM monitoring of CO2 with real-time data processing; 8) continued seasonal drone-based surveillance studies; 9) seismic monitoring with passive and active surveys; and 10) wellbore monitoring with nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) for near-surface characterization. Completion of Activities 1.0–5.0 (baseline activities) are described in this report. Upon authorization of funding by DOE, the EERC will initiate Activities 6.0– 10.0 (operational monitoring activities). Current state-of-the-art (SOA) carbon storage-monitoring techniques require countless labor hours dedicated to the acquisition of data. Once data are gathered, these SOA techniques often rely on commercial facilities to process raw data from the field. However, it is anticipated that next-generation monitoring techniques, such as those being demonstrated, will lower acquisition footprints, be less operationally intensive, and improve data acquisition efficiencies. These new techniques are more conducive to the application of machine learning, artificial intelligence, and automation, thus providing a pathway for integration into active control systems, informing site operability, and improving the integration of data for future CCS projects across the United States. Additionally, reclaimed and active mining lands are present within the project site, creating a unique opportunity to demonstrate the effectiveness of remote sensing and surface-based geophysics monitoring techniques at similar project sites that may include disturbed, unconsolidated, or actively excavated near-surface environments. The efforts included in the overall project will produce necessary designs, learnings, and data acquired during the baseline and operational monitoring periods that are necessary for time-lapse demonstration and validation of the described monitoring techniques. In addition, it is anticipated that the monitoring technologies included in this study will be compliant with UIC Class VI requirements to enable the potential for implementation at other CCS sites across the United States.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Variability of near-fault seismic risk to reinforced concrete buildings based on high-resolution physics-based ground motion simulations

Broadband physics-based simulated earthquake ground motions are utilized to characterize the regional-scale seismic risk to modern reinforced concrete (RC) structures. A highly dense dataset of ground motions covering a 100-km urn:x-wiley:00988847:media:eqe3413:eqe3413-math-0001 40-km domain was generated using kinematic fault rupture models with varying rupture characteristics to represent shallow crustal earthquakes and resolved up to frequencies of 5 Hz. Over 40,000 nonlinear response history simulations of short- and mid-rise RC special moment frame buildings were conducted using simulation models that are capable of representing nonlinear behavior and component deterioration effects. The spatial variability of structural risk within a single earthquake scenario and between different rupture scenarios is examined, and the regions of strongest directivity effects and highest structural demands are identified. The structural demands may vary by factor of up to 8.0 at very short distances from the fault, and the large dispersion in the demands decreases significantly beyond a distance of 15 km. The interstory drift and member rotation demands are substantially impacted by important features of the geological structure and the characteristics of the rupture scenarios, particularly the presence of localized high-slip regions. The frequency characteristics of the structures are found to play an important role in determining the effects of near-fault ground motions on the structural response and expected damage. The results of this study suggest that the simulated ground motions, particularly those generated using the hybrid rupture approach, may offer reasonable structural risk estimates for low-frequency structures and conservative estimates for high-frequency structures.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Episodic Earthquake Swarms in the Mineral Mountains, Utah Driven by the Roosevelt Hydrothermal System

Over 1,000 earthquakes (-2.0 < M < 2.0), identified using a matched-filter method, occurred in the Mineral Mountains, Utah between 2016 and 2019. The enhanced catalog is complete down to M -0.9 and contains roughly 15 times more events than originally cataloged. Earthquake relocation of ~800 earthquakes shows that activity is concentrated in a <2 km long E-W striking narrow zone, ~4 km east of the Roosevelt hydrothermal system. Two fault orientations, both N-S and E-W parallel to the Opal Mound and Mag Lee faults, respectively, are observed after computing composite focal mechanisms of highly similar earthquakes. Looking solely at the temporal distribution of the seismicity, we identify 15 periods of swarm-like activity, with two major clusters occurring in December 2016, recorded by three stations, and in October 2019 recorded by eight stations. The October 2019 swarm, the best recorded sequence in the area, provides evidence for the underlying triggering mechanism. We show that a complex mechanism of fluid diffusion and aseismic slip is responsible for the swarm evolution with migration velocities reaching 10 km/day. We hypothesize that these episodic swarms in the Mineral Mountains are primarily driven by migrating fluids that originate within the Roosevelt hydrothermal system.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Machine learning-based inversion for acoustic impedance with large synthetic training data: Workflow and data characterization

Where wells are sparse or training data are difficult to label with high-quality wireline-derived impedance logs, machine learning (ML)-based inversion of acoustic impedance typically depends on small training data sets, leading to biased prediction. We have advanced a novel workflow that applies large synthetic seismic training data to reduce facies-related bias. Using a geologically realistic model as the truth model, we randomly select sparse seed wells to perform sequential Gaussian simulation (SGS) for impedance models of the same geometry and simulate facies variability. We implement random forest regression on 30 features extracted from the synthetic volume. We observe that more seed wells tend to reduce facies-induced bias by sampling more types of facies, resulting in a better prediction. We then focus on the responses of SGS models to facies changes, the number of seed wells necessary for a useful synthetic model, and how much a synthetic model can help ML-based inversion. Here, we observe that the SGS synthetic training model outperforms well-direct training in general. For modeled clastic shore-zone systems in Miocene Gulf of Mexico, two or more seed wells are necessary for a significant reduction of root-mean-square error and outliners, and improvement of facies imaging. In a field-data test, we apply a similar workflow to quantitatively predict acoustic impedance, which is then converted to a sand-volume map at a high-frequency sequence (10–100 m), revealing detailed facies and sandstone patterns. Such results are valuable in many geologic and engineering applications, such as hydrocarbon and CO 2 reservoir prospecting, reserve estimation, simulation, etc.

3D seismic↗

Strength, plasticity, and spin transition of Fe-N compounds in planetary cores

Elastic and plastic properties of Fe-light element alloys and compounds are needed to determine the compositions and dynamics of planetary cores. Elastic strength and plastic deformation mechanisms and their relationship to electronic properties of ε-Fe 7 N 3 and γ’-Fe 4 N mixture were investigated by x-ray diffraction and x-ray emission spectroscopy in the diamond anvil cell from 1 bar up to 60 GPa. X-ray diffraction shows that ε-Fe 7 N 3 reaches a pressure of 15–20 GPa before undergoing bulk plasticity at a differential stress of 4.4–10.4 GPa. ε-Fe 7 N 3 is stronger than γ’-Fe 4 N and hcp-Fe which achieve a flow stress of 1.5–3.6 GPa at 10–15 GPa and 2–3 GPa at ~20 GPa, respectively. X-ray emission spectroscopy shows that a decrease in electronic spin moment begins before and completes after plastic flow onset for each nitride, suggesting that pressure-driven changes in electronic arrangement do not trigger a plastic response although they may modify the strength and plastic behavior of Fe-N compounds. Plastic deformation in ε-Fe 7 N 3 and hcp-Fe results in a preferred orientation of (0001) normal to maximum compression, while γ’-Fe 4 N develops a maximum in the (110). Furthermore, these observations may be combined with measurements of elasticity to model seismic properties of cores of small planetary bodies such as Mars, Mercury, and the Moon.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Seismo-Acoustic Wave Simulation for the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake

It is well known that underground explosions or earthquakes can generate infrasound in the atmosphere. Seismoacoustic coupling between the ground motions and atmosphere is a key mechanism for infrasound generation. Epicentral infrasound which is direct response to epicentral ground motions are extensively studied for event detection and discrimination. Diffracted infrasound generated from Rayleigh waves are often observed and reported. Recent studies suggested the surface topography is also important for infrasound generation, and mountains or topographic peaks can act as effective secondary infrasound sources. In this study, we perform full 3-D seismoacoustic simulations to understand a coupled seismic and acoustic wave generation by an earthquake and energy partitioning across the solid Earth-ocean-atmosphere system. By including the effects of realistic topography, bathymetry, and earthquake focal mechanism, we provide quantitative information about seismoacoustic wavefields and secondary infrasound sources across the solid-water, solid-air, and water-air interfaces. Acoustic wave transmission across water-air interface is also investigated by using synthetic waveforms. Our study suggests that shallow seas near the coastline or over elevated seafloors can transmit significant amount of energy from acoustic waves in water and can be effective secondary infrasound sources.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Seismo-Acoustic Wave Simulation for Earthquake-Generated Infrasound

It is well known that underground explosions or earthquakes can generate infrasound in the atmosphere. Seismoacoustic coupling between the ground motions and atmosphere is a key mechanism for infrasound generation. Epicentral infrasound which is direct response to epicentral ground motions are extensively studied for event detection and discrimination. Diffracted infrasound generated from Rayleigh waves are often observed and reported. Recent studies suggested the surface topography is also important for infrasound generation, and mountains or topographic peaks can act as effective secondary infrasound sources. In this study, we perform full 3-D seismoacoustic simulations to understand a coupled seismic and acoustic wave generation by an earthquake and energy partitioning across the solid Earthocean-atmosphere system. By including the effects of realistic topography, bathymetry, and earthquake focal mechanism, we provide quantitative information about seismoacoustic wavefields and secondary infrasound sources across the solid-water, solid-air, and water-air interfaces. Acoustic wave transmission across water-air interface is also investigated by using synthetic waveforms. Our study suggests that shallow seas near the coastline or over elevated seafloors can transmit significant amount of energy from acoustic waves in water and can be effective secondary infrasound sources.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Characterization and Evaluation of Scintillating Fiber System Components

Idaho National Laboratory is studying long scintillation fibers (SF) in a project called “TRIPWIRE” which aims to verify containment in inaccessible nuclear waste repositories. This system will continuously monitor ionizing radiation, electromagnetic fields, and seismic activity in the vicinity of nuclear waste. Previous experiments have determined a better alternative to long SF is to couple shorter SF to kilometer scale optical fiber (OF) to reach electronics far outside of the repository. Minor signal attenuation from coupling these fibers has been observed using optical spectrometry. This experiment characterized two photomultiplier tubes (PMT) to reduce this loss by matching their spectral response characteristics to the SF’s emission spectrum. The experiment created a comparison between the two PMTs showing results that suggest other characteristics are playing a major role in improving signal attenuation when the SF is coupled to OF.

98 - NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL↗

Coupled geomechanical investigation of depletion-induced fault reactivation

Fault reactivation during subsurface fluid production pose significant challenges to safe and sustainable resource extraction. Here, this study presents a three-dimensional coupled geomechanical framework to investigate the processes driving fault reactivation, capturing the interactions between reservoir dynamics and geomechanical responses. Verification against theoretical estimations based on linear poroelasticity confirms the model's capacity in representing reservoir background stress responses. However, the study reveals that relying solely on background stress states can underestimate or overestimate fault reactivation potential, emphasizing the importance of including localized stress perturbations such as differential compaction and stress redistribution. Applied to a fault (M1) inspired by the geological characteristics of the Groningen field, the model shows slip initiation at 2965 m depth with 16.0 MPa depletion, aligning with field observations where seismicity occurred at approximately 3 km depth after 15.8 MPa depletion. Parametric studies reveal: (1) inelastic reservoir compaction delays fault reactivation and mitigates fault slip by reducing stress concentration, (2) higher intermediate in-situ stress magnitudes decrease the Coulomb Failure Stress (CFS) increase rate and reduce fault slip, (3) larger fault offsets amplify shear stress near the offset zone, promoting earlier reactivation and longer rupture propagation, and (4) fault permeability significantly influences pressure diffusion, with low-permeability faults leading to sharper stress changes and earlier fault destabilization. These insights highlight the critical role of geological and mechanical parameters in fault reactivation and provide a predictive framework for mitigating induced seismicity risks.

Coupled geomechanical modeling↗

Wellbore integrity assessment with casing-based advanced sensing

Wellbore integrity is of paramount importance to subsurface resource extraction, energy storage 1 and waste disposal. After installation, well casing and cement are subject to mechanical stress due to near-well pressure changes and fluid induced corrosion. This is exacerbated for geothermal wells where produced fluid is at high temperature and corrosive. The current state-of-the-art technologies for wellbore integrity assessments are an array of cased hole logging tools. Wireline deployed acoustic, electromagnetic and mechanical tools are all available to inspect steel casing corrosion and casing-cement bond and these tools can provide high-resolution assessment of borehole conditions. They are intrusive, however, in terms of borehole preparation and interruption to the normal operation of the wells, and not suitable for high temperature or highly deviated well deployments. In addition, these measurements are performed infrequently due to high cost, and are therefore incapable of providing frequent data to better predict borehole degradation trajectory, which can help provide early warning of potential borehole failures. For this project we are developing a suite of novel, non-invasive, casing based tools for wellbore integrity assessment, combining fast/low cost screening with higher-precision investigation. Our approach is based on monitoring the response of the casing when energized at the wellhead, thereby interrogating the casing without well intervention. Lab, field and numerical approaches are used in our study. During the early stage of the research, we focus on numerical simulations, which have shown the sensitivity of the low frequency electromagnetic (EM) signals to changes in borehole depths and have successfully tested the concept at a field site with different length well casings. Initial seismic modeling efforts have also demonstrated our capability to simulate seismic tube wave and seismic field alterations due to borehole breakage and associated fluid leakage. Further numerical, laboratory and field experiments are underway for additional technology sensitivity analysis, particularly the transient EM/Seismic reflectometry methods, data acquisition optimization, and numerical simulation improvements.

Wilt, Michael↗

How earthquakes organize stress

Stress is not uniform in the Earth. Therefore, we must use natural experiments to measure the distribution of stresses and related quantities, rather than single values. For instance, dynamic triggering shows that faults are uniformly distributed over their loading cycles in Southern California. The probability that a fault ruptures across a barrier measures the in situ energy distribution. Fault roughness reflects the distribution of strength. These natural experiments produce observable distributions that are surprisingly consistent and suggest some degree of self-organization in the Earth’s crust. Once established, the functional form of the distributions can be used to track changes in response to earthquakes as well as to distinguish fundamentally different fault systems. Transient fault locking before stress release in laboratory experiments can be interpreted as a consequence of self-organization of fault stress. The robust self-organization of multiple variables in earthquake systems suggests that the most consequential mechanical outcome of earthquakes may be the redistribution of stress and the strain energy associated with it. The low friction on a fault during seismic slip as inferred by temperature measurements of the Tohoku earthquake is consistent with dissipation playing a secondary role to this redistribution process. Through stress redistribution and interaction, subduction zone faults tend to synchronize, perhaps due to their geometric simplicity, while the continental system of Southern California cannot synchronize, perhaps due to the complexity of the fault network. Earthquakes organize stress in the crust and produce a suite of well-defined, consistent distributions.

earthquakes↗

Hydromechanical Modeling of Fault Rupture in Geologic CO 2 Sequestration: A Comparison of Two Failure Criteria

Abstract The large‐scale implementation of geological carbon sequestration has raised concerns about potential fault activation and induced seismicity, which could compromise storage integrity and pose seismic risks. We theoretically compared two failure criteria, Mohr‐Coulomb (MC) and Modified Cam‐Clay criteria (MCC), to assess fault rupture during CO 2 storage. Both criteria characterize fault behavior in a specific stress regime but differ in reducing the complexity of fault rupture to a few key mechanisms. Using a coupled hydromechanical model, we demonstrate that the choice of a failure criterion and the physics of fault weakening associated with these criteria strongly condition fault response to a given fluid injection. MC mainly relates rupture to friction, while MCC relates rupture to fault poro‐plasticity. Our findings highlight that the selection of a failure criterion, being inherently subjective, can significantly alter the predicted fault behavior during CO 2 storage, thereby impacting the reliability of geomechanical risk assessments.

Cao, M. [Energy Geosciences Division Lawrence Berk↗

Impedance‐matching model‐in‐the‐loop simulation

Abstract Impedance matching is a novel approach to executing model‐in‐the‐loop (MIL) simulations. The concept, key features, and sample applications of this approach have been described in a series of publications. This paper advances theory and implementation for impedance‐matching MIL by: (1) developing a feedback linearization technique for implementing MIL for nonlinear virtual systems, (2) systematically characterizing MIL performance‐stability tradeoffs using three design‐oriented criteria—performance: defined as closeness of the controlled‐actuator impedance to the virtual‐boundary impedance;control effort: low controller response at high frequencies to reduce sensitivity to measurement noise and uncertainties in the actuator model; andstability: pursued using passivity of the controlled actuator system, and (3) assessing, through experimentation, the robustness of two ways to estimate feedback reaction force from the test article. These fundamental advancements to MIL are described using a one‐dimensional configuration consisting of a fluid‐filled cylindrical vessel as the physical test article and a uniaxial hydraulic shake table controlled to imitate different seismic isolation systems at the base of the vessel.

Engineering↗

Computational Tools and Workflows for Quantitative Risk Assessment and Decision Support for Geologic Carbon Storage Sites: Progress and Insights from the U.S. DOE’s National Risk Assessment Partnership

The 2005 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on CCS raised the profile of CO2 capture and storage (CCS) as an important technology for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. CCS is now recognized as a key component of most climate change mitigation scenarios. Since publication of that report the international research, development, and deployment (RD&D) community has advanced key technical aspects, clarified regulatory requirements, explored value chain and infrastructure solutions, and developed incentive paradigms to enable and promote large-scale deployment of CCS. These efforts have included research to better characterize geologic storage resources, to improve injection performance and storage efficiency, to assess and manage subsurface environmental risks, and to advance monitoring technologies to assure system conformance. These efforts have helped to build confidence in the viability of geologic carbon storage (GCS), but stakeholder concerns about long-term risks and liability associated with GCS remain a hurdle to broad acceptance and large-scale deployment of CCS. Since 2010, the U.S. DOE’s National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) – a research collaboration between five contributing national laboratories – has worked to establish and demonstrate methods and tools to quantify and manage the subsurface environmental risks associated with GCS, amidst uncertainty. This work supports the Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management Carbon Transport and Storage Program’s goal of advancing safe and secure commercial-scale GCS deployment. To address the technical challenge of simulating the physical response of the GCS site to large-scale CO2 injection, NRAP has adopted an approach that relies on coupling computationally efficient reduced-order and/or data-driven proxy models of important system components (i.e., storage reservoir, sealing caprock, leakage pathways, intermediate formations, overlying groundwater aquifers, and the atmosphere) in integrated assessment framework. That integrated model of the physical system is complemented with fit-for purpose functionality to support site characterization and risk-related decisions. The recently released NRAP Phase II toolset includes the Open-Source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM) for evaluation of trends in leakage risk and potential impact, tools to support monitoring design optimization (Designs for Risk Evaluation and Management – DREAM v3.0 and Passive Seismic Monitoring Tool - PSMT), and tools for state of stress evaluation (State-of-Stress Analysis Tool - SOSAT) and forecasting induced seismicity risk. The NRAP team has also released a pair of reports describing conceptual workflows to incorporate physics-based, quantitative risk assessment into many of the design, planning, operation, and closure decisions for GCS projects. An online catalogue highlights published studies where these tools and methods are demonstrated. In this presentation, the utility of these products to assess risks and address key stakeholder questions will be highlighted through examples, and related insights about the safety and security of geologic carbon storage in qualified storage sites will be discussed. The prospect of rapid, large-scale deployment of GCS technology to aggressively reduce anthropogenic CO2 emissions requires careful consideration of interference between multiple commercial-scale storage projects within a basin. Going forward, NRAP is expanding and adapting site-scale risk quantification tools and methods to enable assessment of risks and inform management decisions for basin-scale deployment. Increasingly, this work will leverage next-generation approaches for surrogate modelling, fast prediction, and advanced visualization enabled by machine learning and artificial intelligence to promote virtual learning, scenario evaluation, and augment risk-based decision making.

quantitative risk assessment, geologic carbon stor↗

Applying 3D Geologic Modeling Workflows to the Argillite Reference Case (Rev. 1)

The objective of this short report is to document the application of our 3D geologic modeling workflow to an argillite (shale) host rock. Over the past four years, our team at Los Alamos National Laboratory has developed a geologic modeling workflow that can be applied to generic alluvial basins such as those found in the western United States. In “frontier” or “exploratory” basins where data are sparse, the first steps are to collect, evaluate and integrate available subsurface data into conceptual geologic models. Those models form the basis for constructing the geologic framework model, a 3D geocellular model ideally constrained by seismic and borehole data. To date we have constructed our models using “synthetic” well data derived from conceptual models, without the prospect of validating our workflow using “real” subsurface data. We were tasked to investigate whether our workflow designed for alluvial basin sediments could be applied to other potential repository host rocks. This task also provided the opportunity to work with high-quality subsurface data collected specifically for siting and evaluating a nuclear waste repository. Nagra, the Swiss governmental agency responsible for the disposal of the nation’s radioactive waste, generously provided us with data from two deep boreholes drilled through their argillaceous target formation. The aim of our proof-of-concept demonstration is to evaluate whether geostatistical methods offer a viable approach to property modeling in argillaceous rocks. Nagra provided us with the well data on the condition that we maintain confidentiality with all transferred information and results. Fortunately, Nagra posts numerous technical reports on its public website that describe the subsurface geology in great detail. All of the information and illustrations in this report related to the Swiss repository enterprise are taken from the Nagra public website.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Gas hydrate quantification in Walker Ridge block 313, Gulf of Mexico, from full-waveform inversion of ocean-bottom seismic data

The Gulf of Mexico (GOM) Joint Industry Project Leg 2 logging-while-drilling data in Walker Ridge lease block 313 (WR313) in the GOM detected gas hydrate in coarse- and fine-grained sediments at sites WR313-G and WR313-H. The coarse-grained units are thin ([Formula: see text]) and highly saturated, whereas the fine-grained unit is thick (approximately 200 m) with low saturation and fracture-filling gas hydrate. Unlike its coarse-grained counterpart, the seismic character of the fine-grained unit does not clearly indicate the presence of gas hydrate, which would likely have remained undiscovered in the absence of drilling. In this paper, through frequency-domain acoustic full-waveform inversion (FWI) of ocean-bottom seismometer data along a 2D multichannel seismic transect near sites WR313-G and WR313-H, we detect and quantify gas hydrate in the fine-grained unit. Key results are as follows: First, the base of the gas hydrate stability zone, which is not obvious in the reflection profile, can be discerned in the FWI results. Second, the gas hydrate in the fine-grained unit is mainly confined to the area between two sets of opposite-dipping normal faults implying that the fault architecture may be partially responsible for this gas hydrate accumulation and distribution.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

Modeling Sequences of Earthquakes and Aseismic Slip (SEAS) in Elasto-Plastic Fault Zones With a Hybrid Finite Element Spectral Boundary Integral Scheme

We present a coupled finite element spectral boundary integral framework for modeling sequences of earthquakes and aseismic slip on a 2-D planar rate-and-state fault with off-fault visco-plastic response in the plane strain approximation. The model resolves both slow aseismic deformation and inertia effects during rapid slip. As an application, we perform two sets of simulations with different choices of cohesion to explore the co-evolution of fault slip, bulk plasticity and local stress fields. The first set implements a relatively large value of the cohesion parameter, which results in limiting inelastic strain accumulation to dynamic rupture phases. The second set implements a smaller cohesion, allowing for plastic strain to accumulate in both seismic and aseismic phases. For the first model, our results indicate that the extent and distribution of plastic strain depend on the angle of maximum compressive principal stress. At larger angles, inelastic strain accumulates on the extensional side of a dynamically propagating rupture. At smaller angles, the extent of plasticity is limited to the compressional side of the domain. At smaller cohesion values, off-fault plasticity may occur during aseismic slip, which alters the nucleation characteristics and earthquake sequence pattern. Furthermore, our results at lower cohesion values indicate that plastic strain accumulation may occur in both the extensional and compressional sides of the off-fault bulk even at higher angles of maximum compression. In conclusion, this produces damage patterns that deviate from the traditional off-fault fan-like distribution observed in dynamic rupture simulations and emphasizes the significance of long-term deformation in interpreting observations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗