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At least 181 records · Page 10

Identifying geological structures through microseismic cluster and burst analyses complementing active seismic interpretation

At the Decatur carbon capture and storage site (IL, USA) CO 2 has been injected from 2011–2014 and from 2017 to present near the base of the Lower Mt. Simon Sandstone saline reservoir, resulting in microseismicity. Microseismicity is mainly located in the basement and distributed in distinct spatial clusters. The lack of significant impedance contrasts within the basement makes the interpretation of active-source seismic reflection data challenging, however, recent reprocessing allowed to resolve faults above and at the top of the basement. These faults generally do not coincide with the location of microseismic events and their continuation to the general depth of the seismic events cannot be assumed. This paper shows how the interpretation of the microseismicity can complement structural interpretations of active-source seismic reflection data. In particular, we analyze clusters and bursts (abrupt increases) of microseismicity, identify unresolved, smaller-scale weaknesses and extract statistical parameters. These parameters allow comparisons with the interpreted faults, and with fracture sets intercepted by boreholes. During injection at the Decatur site, the injection pressure was kept far below fracture pressure, nevertheless, seismic events were induced and spread far beyond the expected extent of the CO 2 plume. We argue that local stress transfers related to the CO 2 injection reactivated pre-existing fractures within the critically stressed basement. Finally, we conducted a slip tendency analysis for faults interpreted from active seismic, selected cluster, bursts and nodal planes from focal mechanisms to determine if the interpreted structures are optimally oriented with respect to the stress regime. Our results suggest that the orientation of fractures close to the injection well, generally shows slight deviations from the optimal orientation for slip. This might indicate either slight local deviations of the maximum horizontal stress azimuth from the average direction used in the analysis, or the lack of optimally oriented fractures at this location.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A Project Lifetime Approach to the Management of Induced Seismicity Risk at Geologic Carbon Storage Sites

The geologic storage of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is one method that can help reduce atmospheric CO 2 by sequestering it into the subsurface. Large-scale deployment of geologic carbon storage, however, may be accompanied by induced seismicity. We present a project lifetime approach to address the induced seismicity risk at these geologic storage sites. This approach encompasses both technical and nontechnical stakeholder issues related to induced seismicity and spans the time period from the initial consideration phase to postclosure. These recommendations are envisioned to serve as general guidelines, setting expectations for operators, regulators, and the public. They contain a set of seven actionable focus areas, the purpose of which are to deal proactively with induced seismicity issues. Although each geologic carbon storage site will be unique and will require a custom approach, these general best practice recommendations can be used as a starting point to any site-specific plan for how to systematically evaluate, communicate about, and mitigate induced seismicity at a particular reservoir.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

ORION: Operational FoRecastIng Of INduced Seismicity

The Operational Forecasting of Induced Seismicity toolkit “ORION” (ORION) is an open-source, observation-based ensemble forecasting toolkit which is geared towards helping operators understand the seismic hazard (i.e., probabilistic assessment of the magnitude and frequency of induced seismic events) at a site. ORION analyzes how the seismic hazard evolves during injection and suggests possible mitigation strategies to employ if an earthquake that exceeds certain threshold is observed. Through its ensemble modeling approach, ORION leverages the benefits of statistical-, physics-, and machine learning-based forecasting methodologies, while reducing the impact of each model’s respective limitations. The ORION toolkit consists of an easy-to-use GUI interface that affords a user as much or as little interaction as desired. Advanced capabilities allow the user to upload local, high-precision earthquake catalogs, projected injection profiles and/or spatiotemporal estimates of pressure/stress, and to tune various model parameters. ORION will then provide a spatial and temporal ensemble forecast of seismicity defined as the probability of exceedance of a given earthquake magnitude over a forecast period. Additionally, ORION will provide probability distribution of the statistically derived maximum possible earthquake magnitude that may be expected. Finally, ORION will provide suggested operational management strategies (e.g. reduce injection volumes at specific wells) based on the level of hazard.

NRAP,NRAP Tools,ORION,Operational Forcasting of In↗

Updates to the Regional Seismic Travel Time (RSTT) Model: 1. Tomography

Abstract A function of global monitoring of nuclear explosions is the development of Earth models for predicting seismic travel times for more accurate calculation of event locations. Most monitoring agencies rely on fast, distance-dependent one-dimensional (1D) Earth models to calculate seismic event locations quickly and in near real-time. RSTT (Regional Seismic Travel Time) is a seismic velocity model and computer software package that captures the major effects of three-dimensional crust and upper mantle structure on regional seismic travel times, while still allowing for fast prediction speed (milliseconds). We describe updates to the RSTT model using a refined data set of regional phases (i.e., Pn, Pg, Sn, Lg) using the Bayesloc relative relocation algorithm. The tomographic inversion shown here acts to refine the previous RSTT public model ( rstt201404um ) and displays significant features related to areas of global tectonic complexity as well as further reduction in arrival residual values. Validation of the updated RSTT model demonstrates significant reduction in median epicenter mislocation (15.3 km) using all regional phases compared to the iasp91 1D model (22.1 km) as well as to the current station correction approach used at the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization International Data Centre (18.9 km).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A modular methodology for time-domain stochastic seismic wave propagation

Presented here is a modular methodology for time-domain stochastic seismic wave propagation analysis. Presented methodology is designed to analyse uncertain seismic motions as an input, propagating through uncertain material. Traditional approach for uncertain wave propagation relies on models that include deep bedrock, local soil site, and their random process and random field information. Such models can become quite large and computationally intractable. The modular approach proposed herein features two step approach that allows separate consideration of the deep bedrock and local site along with corresponding random field information. In this work, the first step considers an auxiliary stochastic motions problem in the bedrock. Stochastic local site response can then be simulated in a reduced domain within certain depth from the surface. Application of uncertain seismic motions at depth, for local uncertain site response is done using stochastic effective forces developed through the Domain Reduction Method. By using Hermite polynomial chaos expansion to represent the non-Gaussian random field of material parameters and non-stationary random process of seismic motion, the proposed modular methodology is formulated using intrusive stochastic Galerkin approach, as seen in the Stochastic Elastic–Plastic Finite Element Method (SEPFEM). Developed modular methodology is illustrated using a 1-D stochastic seismic wave propagation analysis with three cases, and simulation results are also verified with results from conventional approach.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Three-dimensional seismic characterization and imaging of the Soda Lake geothermal field

Accurate characterization of subsurface geophysical properties and detection of the fault system are essential for geothermal energy exploration and production. The Soda Lake geothermal field is in western Nevada with a complex fault system. Previous seismic characterization only produced a low-resolution, smooth velocity model along with a simple, conceptual fault model. Using optimized correlation-based full-waveform inversion, wavefield-separation-based reverse-time migration, and automatic fault detection techniques, we present 3D seismic characterization for the Soda Lake geothermal field using 3D surface seismic data acquired with Vibroseis sources. Here, we obtain 3D high-resolution velocity, density, and acoustic impedance models, 3D seismic images with different grid spacings, and a high-resolution fault system. Consistency check between the constructed faults and currently active injection and production geothermal wells verifies that our seismic inversion and imaging results and detected faults are reliable. These results can provide valuable information for optimizing well placement and geothermal energy production at the Soda Lake geothermal field.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Elastic-wave sensitivity-guided adaptive seismic survey design for cost-effective monitoring of geological carbon storage

Effective seismic monitoring is essential for verifying CO₂ containment, detecting potential leakage, and optimizing operational decisions in geologic carbon storage. Here, this study presents a time-adaptive, elastic-wave sensitivity-guided framework for designing cost-effective seismic monitoring layouts for tracking CO₂ plume migration. The method is based on elastic-wave sensitivity analysis, which quantifies how variations in subsurface properties impact seismic wavefields. Two complementary design strategies are developed: one based on selecting a fixed number of seismic sources (Method A), and the other based on selecting source–receiver pairs contributing to a fixed fraction of cumulative elastic-wave sensitivity energy (Method B). The optimization workflow to identify source–receiver configurations with the highest detection potential is demonstrated using a hypothetical GCS scenario at the Kimberlina site in California using simulations of elastic-wave sensitivity data at multiple post-injection timesteps. Results show that both strategies adapt to evolving plume geometries and wavefield sensitivities, with Method B offering broader spatial coverage and Method A ensuring simpler deployment. This framework enables site-specific, cost-effective, and risk-informed seismic survey designs, enhancing the ability to monitor CO₂ migration over time in evolving geological environments

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Validation of numerical models for seismic fluid-structure-interaction analysis of nuclear, safety-related equipment

Seismic design, qualification, and risk assessment of nuclear safety-related vessels filled with liquid will have to consider the interaction between the vessel (tank), the contained liquid, and submerged components, if any. Seismic fluid-structure-interaction (FSI) analysis of nuclear vessels will rely on numerical models, which are required to be verified and validated. This study validates previously-verified numerical models using test data generated from earthquake-simulator experiments involving a cylindrical tank. Two solvers in LS-DYNA for FSI simulations are used for the numerical analysis: Arbitrary-Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) and Incompressible Computational Fluid Dynamics (ICFD). Numerical and test results are compared for responses critical to seismic design of advanced reactor vessels: hydrodynamic pressures on the tank wall, reactions at the support, and wave heights of the contained liquid. Analysis is performed for one-, two-, and three-directional seismic inputs with a range of intensity, and rocking motions. The accuracy of the numerical results and different methods for outputting wave heights are discussed. Recommendations for validation of seismic FSI numerical models of advanced reactors are provided. As a result, the validation exercise presented in this study is broadly applicable to cylindrical tanks, regardless of industry sector.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

The Sensitivity of Joint Inversions of Seismic and Geodynamic Data to Mantle Viscosity

Seismic tomography has revealed the existence of large-scale velocity heterogeneities in the mantle. The interpretation of seismic velocity anomalies in terms of temperature and chemical composition is nonunique. We use geodynamic observations including gravity, plate motions, dynamic topography, and excess ellipticity of the core-mantle boundary combined with seismic observations to investigate the thermo-chemical structure of the mantle through joint inversions. An outstanding issue, however, is the physical connection between mantle density anomalies and the surface geodynamic observations, which requires knowledge of the mantle viscosity structure. Here we perform joint inversions assuming different viscosity profiles and examine the dependence of the results on the viscosity. We first assume that mantle heterogeneity is due to thermal variations, which places a constraint on the relation between seismic velocity and density, and we subsequently relax the constraint to allow for potential nonthermal effects. In all of our joint inversions, a nonthermal origin of density anomalies is required to explain the geodynamic data, though the amount varies with the assumed viscosity structure. A common observation is a high-density chemical signal in the center of the large low-shear-velocity provinces at the base of the mantle resulting in a near neutral or slightly dense overall buoyancy there. Using the derived density models and their corresponding viscosity profiles, we also calculate instantaneous mantle flow fields. The predicted flow fields derived from joint inversions are generally similar but are quite different from flow fields using density models derived from a posteriori scaling of pure seismic tomography models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Seasonal modulation of crustal seismicity in northeastern Japan driven by snow load

Numerous studies have reported that surface hydrological loading can seasonally modulate seismicity rates at crustal depths. For example, substantial winter snow accumulation occurs across the Japanese Islands, and these snowy regions appear to have seasonally modulated the occurrence of previous large inland earthquakes. Therefore, it is important to investigate the impact of seasonal stress changes on crustal seismicity to deepen our understanding of earthquake generation. Here we constrain seasonal changes in the surface load across northeastern Japan using Global Navigation Satellite System surface displacements and evaluate the potential relationship between temporal trends in inland seismicity and estimated seasonal stress changes. The spatial distribution of the seasonal surface load is consistent with snow depth along the Sea of Japan. The inland seismicity beneath northeastern Japan is modestly modulated by the seasonal stress changes that are induced by the annual snow load. However, this seasonal response is weaker than that in other regions. This weak modulation may be due to the small surface-load-induced stress perturbation relative to the long-term-averaged stressing rate and/or the limited presence of crustal fluids to trigger seismicity in Japan.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Seismic Performance of Deeply Embedded Conceptual Advanced Reactors: Three-Dimensional Nonlinear Soil-Structure Interaction Analyses

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s functional containment concept provides advanced nuclear power plant designers with more flexibility in terms of the civil/structural design if the appropriate set of barriers for prevention of radioactive material release exist. Some of the conceptual advanced reactor structures, without the traditional pressure boundaries of large containment structures, are proposed to be deeply embedded or buried into soil. This approach is expected to provide (1) lesser seismic demands on the structures and safety-critical structures, (2) eased regulatory efforts and overall design against other external hazards such as aircraft impact, and (3) overall cost savings. Further, one of the important aspects of assessing the technical and economic viability of deeply embedding advanced reactor buildings is to assess the seismic performance with the understanding of effects with material and geometric nonlinearities. This study investigates the seismic response of deeply embedded or buried advanced reactors by conducting three-dimensional nonlinear soil-structure interaction analyses. Although the results indicate that there is a general trend of decreased seismic response with increased embedment depths, the change in the dynamic environment with different embedment depths and the nonlinear environment under high-intensity seismic inputs may result in increased peak response at increased embedment depths.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Validation of seismic velocity models in southern California with full-waveform simulations

SUMMARY Crustal seismic velocity models provide essential information for many applications including earthquake source properties, simulations of ground motion and related derivative products. We present a systematic workflow for assessing the accuracy of velocity models with full-waveform simulations. The framework is applied to four regional seismic velocity models for southern California: CVM-H15.11, CVM-S4.26, CVM-S4.26.M01 that includes a shallow geotechnical layer, and the model of Berg et al. For each model, we perform 3-D viscoelastic wave propagation simulations for 48 virtual seismic noise sources (down to 2 s) and 44 moderate-magnitude earthquakes (down to 2 s generally and 0.5 s for some cases) assuming a minimum shear wave velocity of 200 m s–1. The synthetic waveforms are compared with observations associated with both earthquake records and noise cross-correlation data sets. We measure, at multiple period bands for well-isolated seismic phases, traveltime delays and normalized zero-lag cross-correlation coefficients between the synthetic and observed data. The obtained measurements are summarized using the mean absolute derivation of time delay and the mean correlation coefficient. These two metrics provide reliable statistical representations of model quality with consistent results in all data sets. In addition to assessing the overall (average) performance of different models in the entire study area, we examine spatial variations of the models’ quality. All examined models show good phase and waveform agreements for surface waves at periods longer than 5 s, and discrepancies at shorter periods reflecting small-scale heterogeneities and near-surface structures. The model performing best overall is CVM-S4.26.M01. The largest misfits for both body and surface waves are in basin structures and around large fault zones. Inaccuracies generated in these areas may affect tomography and model simulation results at other regions. The seismic velocity models for southern California can be improved by adding better resolved structural representations of the shallow crust and volumes around the main faults.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Connect the Dots: In Situ 4-D Seismic Monitoring of CO 2 Storage With Spatio-Temporal CNNs

4-D seismic imaging has been widely used in CO 2 sequestration projects to monitor the fluid flow in the volumetric subsurface region that is not sampled by wells. Ideally, real-time monitoring and near-future forecasting would provide site operators with great insights to understand the dynamics of the subsurface reservoir and assess any potential risks. However, due to obstacles such as high deployment cost, availability of acquisition equipment, exclusion zones around surface structures, only very sparse seismic imaging data can be obtained during monitoring. That leads to an unavoidable and growing knowledge gap over time. The operator needs to understand the fluid flow throughout the project lifetime and the seismic data are only available at a limited number of times. This is insufficient for understanding reservoir behavior. To overcome those challenges, we have developed spatio-temporal neural-network-based models that can produce high-fidelity interpolated or extrapolated images effectively and efficiently. Specifically, our models are built on an autoencoder, and incorporate the long short-term memory (LSTM) structure with a new loss function regularized by optical flow. We validate the performance of our models using real 4-D post-stack seismic imaging data acquired at the Sleipner CO 2 sequestration field. We employ two different strategies in evaluating our models. Numerically, we compare our models with different baseline approaches using classic pixel-based metrics. We also conduct a blind survey and collect a total of 20 responses from domain experts to evaluate the quality of data generated by our models. Finally, via both numerical and expert evaluation, we conclude that our models can produce high-quality 2-D/3-D seismic imaging data at a reasonable cost, offering the possibility of real-time monitoring or even near-future forecasting of the CO 2 storage reservoir.

4-D seismic imaging↗

A Non-Invasive Approach for Elucidating the Spatial Distribution of In Situ Stress in Deep Subsurface Geologic Formations Considered for CO 2 Storage (Task 2 Report Extracting Stress Data from Seismic Data)

This report describes research accomplishments achieved with funding provided through Department of Energy (DOE) Contract DE-FE0031686. The purpose of this DOE funding is to develop methods that can provide key information about stress fields that act on deep rocks without invading the earth to acquire that information. The research objective was to demonstrate methods that extract the azimuth directions of SHmax and SHmin stress in deep rocks from traditional seismic reflection data like the data that are used to explore for deep oil and gas reservoirs. Battelle performed two seismic investigations and achieved estimates of SHmax and SHmin azimuths in both efforts that agreed with local, non-seismic, ground-truth measurements of SHmax orientation. The first procedure utilized vertical seismic profiling (VSP) data; the second effort utilized three-dimensional (3D) seismic data.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

CO 2 Injection Monitoring with a Scalable, Automated Sparse Seismic Array

Conference presentation at American Institute of Chemical Engineers (AIChE) Annual Meeting, Virtual, November 16–20, 2020. The scalable, automated sparse seismic array (SASSA) method has been ideated as a cost-effective alternative or complementary to conventional 3D seismic methods. Based on a sparse array of receivers deployed strategically on Earth’s surface and one or more fixed seismic sources, the SASSA method can be used to study specific portions of the subsurface to detect the movement of CO 2 in a reservoir with lower environmental footprint and shorter turnaround time to deliver results than conventional 3D seismic methods. Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) carried out seismic monitoring of an oilfield undergoing CO 2 enhanced oil recovery in Montana, USA, using the SASSA method.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Numerical Modeling of Anisotropic Elastic-Wave Sensitivity Propagation for Optimal Design of Time-Lapse Seismic Surveys

Reliable subsurface time-lapse seismic monitoring is crucial for many geophysical applications, such as enhanced geothermal system characterization, geologic carbon utilization and storage, and conventional and unconventional oil/gas reservoir characterization, etc. In this work, we develop an elastic-wave sensitivity propagation method for optimal design of cost-effective time-lapse seismic surveys considering the fact that most of subsurface geologic layers and fractured reservoirs are anisotropic instead of isotropic. For anisotropic media, we define monitoring criteria using qP- and qS-wave sensitivity energies after decomposing qP- and qS-wave components from the total elastic-wave sensitivity wavefield using a hybrid time- and frequency-domain approach. Geophones should therefore be placed at locations with significant qP- and qS-wave sensitivity energies for cost-effective time-lapse seismic monitoring in an anisotropic geology setting. Our numerical modeling results for a modified anisotropic Hess model demonstrate that, compared with the isotropic case, subsurface anisotropy changes the spatial distributions of elastic-wave sensitivity energies. Consequently, it is necessary to consider subsurface anisotropies when designing the spatial distribution of geophones for cost-effective time-lapse seismic monitoring. This finding suggests that it is essential to use our new anisotropic elastic-wave sensitivity modeling method for optimal design of time-lapse seismic surveys to reliably monitor the changes in subsurface reservoirs, fracture zones or target monitoring regions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Seismic Exploration of Small Bodies

As a result of the Phase I study, we have demonstrated that a mission to a smallbody (asteroid, comet) whose objective is to conduct a seismic experiment to understandthe interior structure, can be accomplished with small (<200 kg) spacecraft launched on asmall launch vehicle (Athena IIc).We modeled the seismic response of a small body and calculated that the energynecessary to propagate through the body and be detected by a seismometer. Thesecalculations provide guidance as to the type of energy source that is required. A simpleenergy source similar to a NASA standard initiator (NSI) can be used, although a singleNSI is insufficient. An NSI is an explosive pyrotechnic that is used to sever connectionson spacecraft. Use of such an energy source has illustrated two additional areas of study -anchoring of the source and sensor to the surface and understanding the efficiency ofenergy propagation from the source into the surface.The spacecraft has the ability to carry and deploy a series of source/sensors toconduct the experiment by placing them on the surface. We identified a suite of candidatenear-Earth asteroids as targets and used one 1991VG as the target to calculate the missiontrajectory and ∆V requirements. Spacecraft and launch vehicle performance are launchthat any of the candidates could be reached with appropriate mass and launch margins.Sources and sensors are deployed from arm attached to the spacecraft. Thespacecraft maneuvers next to the target body and presses the sensor against the surfaceand releases it. After emplacing all of the surface packages, the sensors are monitored fora period of time to measure the seismic noise. Finally, the active seismic experiment isconducted.The work conducted during Phase I demonstrates that a small mission can be designed to conduct an active seismic experiment on a small near-Earth body. Whileother targets may require more performance, the basic architecture is viable for anytarget.We have identified a number of specific technical areas that require more detailed study. Those areas are largely focused on the detailed analysis and design of the source mechanism and anchoring it to the surface. Such topics will be part of a Phase IIproposal.

Spacecraft↗

Utah FORGE: GES Well 16A(78)-32 and Well 16B(78)-32 Stimulation Seismic Event Catalogs

This dataset contains seismic event catalogs from the hydraulic stimulation of wells 16A(78)-32 and 16B(78)-32 at the Utah FORGE site in April 2024. The data was collected by Geo Energy Suisse (GES) using a variety of seismic monitoring technologies, including 3-component (3C) geophones and distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) systems. These technologies were deployed across several locations, including wells 16A, 16B, and Delano-1, with sensor arrays at multiple depths to capture microseismic activity during the stimulations. The catalogs provide both real-time and manually checked seismic event locations, with detailed parameters such as trigger conditions, velocity models, and data acquisition settings. The dataset includes information on the stimulation stages, event rates, and hydraulic injection conditions for each well, with a report detailing the data acquisition configuration and seismic event location methodologies. Users will need to reference the included report for a complete understanding of the sensor network, data processing techniques, and accuracy considerations.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗