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At least 181 records · Page 10

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DOE OSTI2022

Progress in the development and understanding of a high poloidal-beta tokamak operating scenario for an attractive fusion pilot plant

Abstract The high poloidal-beta ( $$\beta _{\textrm{P}}$$ β P ) regime was first proposed as a high bootstrap current scenario for a steady-state fusion pilot plant (FPP) in the 1990s (Kikuchi in Nucl Fusion 30:265, 1990). Since then, there have been many theoretical, modeling, and experimental research activities on this topic. A joint DIII-D/EAST research team began exploring the high- $$\beta _{\textrm{P}}$$ β P regime in 2013, focusing on addressing the needs of attractive FPP design by taking advantage of the extensive diagnostic set and sophisticated plasma control system on DIII-D and the well-developed integrated modeling capability at General Atomics. The ultimate goal is to demonstrate such a scenario on EAST with truly long pulse and metal wall compatibility. This paper summarizes the highlights of the research results on DIII-D by the joint team in the past decade. Experimental evidence and modeling analysis show the high- $$\beta _{\textrm{P}}$$ β P scenario has great advantages in addressing key needs for an attractive FPP design, such as high-energy confinement quality at low rotation, excellent core-edge integration, high line-averaged density above the Greenwald limit, low disruption risk, and high bootstrap current fraction for steady-state operation. This provides a relatively safe and economical option to base an FPP design on that will lead to commercial fusion energy.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Stochastic economic dispatch of wind power under uncertainty using clustering-based extreme scenarios

Operation of power systems with high penetrations of renewable energy sources requires tools for robust decision making under uncertainty. Stochastic economic dispatch and stochastic unit commitment are effective techniques for planning and operation under uncertainty, whose effectiveness depends on the cardinality and quality of the scenario set. Here, this article proposes a machine learning method using -means clustering for capturing relevant physical information from a large population of analog scenarios. Extreme scenario samples drawn from the clusters are used in a two-stage stochastic economic dispatch computation. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is assessed on a synthetic 200-bus system with a geographic footprint over Illinois, USA for four months from each season of WIND Toolkit data. The combination of -means clustering with importance sampling is shown to reduce the total operational cost by over 43% compared to sampling from populations based on heuristic clustering-based methods. Additionally, the variability in the mean cost is about 56% lower than the variability using Monte Carlo sampling. Moreover, the operational cost with the presented approach is shown to be close to the cost calculated based on a hindsight exact wind profile, signifying a highly accurate quantification of wind uncertainty by the presented -means clustering based sampling method.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

A review on the state of thermal hydraulics research on air ingress scenarios in High-Temperature Gas-cooled Reactors following a D-LOFC

With the expectation of near-immediate carbon neutrality, widespread implementation of proven High-Temperature Gas-cooled Reactors (HTGRs) embodies a viable solution pathway given their inherent, passive safety features and high thermal efficiency. This study provides an overview of the current state of research involving the thermal hydraulics associated with air ingress from a depressurized loss of forced cooling (D-LOFC) in HTGRs. Accurately characterizing and predicting the physical phenomena underlying air ingress is of paramount concern, as the integrity of the fuel and core graphite support structures are threatened by the presence of oxygen. Broadly speaking, the air ingress scenario can be delineated into three main stages: (1) Depressurization, (2) Density-Driven Flow, and (3) Natural Convection. In tandem with the underlying fundamental theory, this review collates and synthesizes the existing body of contemporary research concerning the air ingress scenario following a D-LOFC. As evinced by this review, our current understanding and predictive abilities have benefited from extensive research, predominantly concentrated on the rate of air ingestion into the core. Here, additional research is necessary to holistically capture the phenomenology of an air ingress scenario following a D-LOFC by considering an additional variable: the oxygen content of the ingressing air. The latter variable requires investigation into the complex interactions of the fully integrated system. Additionally, while numerical tools are evolving domestically through the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation program, a sufficiently validated code remains absent.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2023

PFPO plasma scenarios for exploration of long pulse operation in ITER

Long Pulse Scenarios (LPS) in ITER foreseen during the Pre-Fusion Power Operation (PFPO) phase of the ITER Research Plan (IRP) are assessed using 1.5D transport simulations within the ASTRA framework. Such assessment is required to predict the operational space for LPS operation in PFPO, as well as to evaluate which physics processes for LPS operation during Fusion Power Operation (FPO) could be studied during PFPO. An important aspect in the development of LPSs in PFPO is to minimize lifetime consumption of the Central Solenoid (CS) for these scenarios. The maximum pulse length achievable for LPSs in PFPO with no consumption of CS lifetime (currents in CS coils $&LessSlantEqual;$30 kA per turn) has been assessed for a range of heating schemes and heating mixes, confinement regimes (L-mode and H-mode) and for helium and hydrogen plasmas. The operational space of LPS and pulse length has been explored through density scans with the Heating and Current Drive mix required for the FPO Q $&GreaterSlantEqual;$ 5 steady-state plasma scenario (namely Neutral Beam Injection and Electron Cyclotron Heating) including acceptable shine through losses on the first wall for both helium and hydrogen plasmas. Fast particle physics aspects that are common between FPO plasmas and LPS PFPO H-mode plasmas at low densities are studied including MHD stability analysis with the KINX code and non-perturbative critical gradient model based on high-n Toroidal Alfven Eigenmodes (TAE) stability kinetic ballooning code HINST calculations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Impact of n > 1 neoclassical tearing modes on fast ions, plasma rotation, and the onset of disruptive tearing modes in DIII-D ITER baseline scenario

We present integrated TRANSP-kick analyses quantitatively characterizing how n > 1 magnetic islands redistribute fast ions (FIs) and modify momentum balance in low-torque DIII-D H-mode scenarios operated with the ITER normalized parameter set and shape (ITER baseline scenario, or IBS). In this plasma scenario, disruptive neoclassical tearing modes (NTMs) are most commonly seeded by nonlinear 3-wave coupling when the differential rotation between the q = 1 and q = 2 surfaces ($δf_{1, 2}$) approaches zero. Analysis of a DIII-D IBS database of shots unstable to the 2/1 NTM demonstrates that the flattening rotation profile is correlated with n > 1 NTM amplitude growth, with a strong drop in $δf_{1, 2}$ occurring when the radial magnetic perturbation amplitude at the rational surface ($δB$ r s ) is estimated to be about 20 G. The interpretive TRANSP-kick simulations show that the experimentally observed reduction in core rotation is due to the fast-ion kicks. Nonlinearity in momentum losses versus NTM amplitude is found to be correlated with overlap of FI island chains, occurring when $δB$ r s is about 35 G, in rough agreement with the experimental results. This agreement suggests the primary mechanism for the conductive momentum loss in the core is due to chaotic FI orbits and FI losses developing from overlapping resonant FI island chains.

ITER baseline scenario↗

DOE OSTI2026

Developing the hybrid scenario in DIII-D and KSTAR for W-compatible long-pulse operation

Long-pulse, high-performance operation with tungsten plasma-facing components is a crucial challenge for achieving steady-state (SS) goals in ITER and future fusion devices. This paper presents a joint international effort between the DIII-D and KSTAR tokamaks aimed at demonstrating the compatibility of the high q 95 ~ 6 hybrid scenario with a tungsten divertor and superconducting coils. A DIII-D hybrid scenario recipe is successfully tailored to KSTAR’s operational constraints, which facilitates cross-device studies. The results show successful 30 s long-pulse operation in KSTAR at a normalized beta (β N = 2.4) with a benign m/n = 4/3 mode and effective mitigation of tungsten accumulation. Despite this success, the KSTAR scenario exhibits a greater than 25% reduction in thermal confinement compared to the DIII-D reference. To investigate this discrepancy, we performed a predictive TGYRO validation study, which suggests that the difference is likely caused by a weaker temperature pedestal in the KSTAR discharge due to a higher and narrower density pedestal. In addition, such lower thermal confinement leads to higher impurity accumulation, possibly due to a change in neoclassical transport with increased inward pinch, which further degrades global confinement. We also report that stationary, long-pulse operation with sustained thermal confinement requires consistent fueling and wall conditioning. These findings highlight the importance of optimized fueling and real-time wall conditioning in achieving a high temperature pedestal and strong global confinement during stable long-pulse operation. We propose potential approaches toward fully SS, long-pulse operation, including real-time wall conditioning using an impurity dropper in KSTAR and future tokamaks.

DIII-D↗

DOE OSTI2022

Estimation of China Fusion Engineering Test Reactor performance and burning fraction in different pellet fueling scenarios by a multi-species radial transport model

Tritium self-sufficiency in future deuterium–tritium fusion reactors is a crucial challenge. As an engineering test reactor, the China Fusion Engineering Test Reactor requires a burning fraction of 3% for the goal to test the accessibility to the future fusion plant. To self-consistently simulate burning plasmas with profile changes in pellet injection scenarios and to estimate the corresponding burning fraction, a one-dimensional multi-species radial transport model is developed in the BOUT++ framework. Here several pellet-fueling scenarios are then tested in the model. The results show that the increased fueling depth improves the burning fraction by particle confinement improvement and fusion power increase. Nevertheless, by increasing the depth, the pellet cooling-down may significantly lower the temperature in the core region. Taking the density perturbation into consideration, the reasonable parameters of the fueling scenario in these simulations are estimated as pellet radius ${r}_{{\rm{p}}}=3\,{\rm{mm}},$ injection rate $=\,4\,\mathrm{Hz},$ and pellet injection velocity $=\,1000\mbox{-}2000\,{\rm{m}}\,{{\rm{s}}}^{-1}$ without drift or $450\,{\rm{m}}\,{{\rm{s}}}^{-1}$ with high-field-side drift.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Scenario Creation and Power-Conditioning Strategies for Operating Power Grids with Two-Stage Stochastic Economic Dispatch

A significant difficulty associated with the use of stochastic programming to solve optimal power flow problems on a 5-minute timescale is the quality of renewable energy scenarios input by the user. This is especially true when considering power systems with high penetrations of renewable energy, e.g. wind power. This paper introduces the use of stochastic programming to solve the DC optimal power flow problem with scenarios drawn directly from high-fidelity data sets. Hence, the proposed method avoids the problem of lost physics by finding high-fidelity analogs that can describe future states of the system. Furthermore, this method can be simply extended to output multi-period scenarios to the stochastic program. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this technique by simulating dispatch operations on a synthetic test system over the course of a week.

94 GMLC - Grid Modernization Laboratory Consortium↗

DOE OSTI2024

Cambium 2023 Scenario Descriptions and Documentation

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) Cambium data sets are annually released sets of simulated hourly emission, cost, and operational data for a range of modeled futures of the U.S. electric sector with metrics designed to be useful for long-term decision- making. The 2023 Cambium data set is the fourth annual release. The data sets are a companion product to NREL's Standard Scenarios, which are likewise released annually and are a set of projections of how the U.S. electric sector could evolve across a suite of different potential futures, but covering more scenarios with less temporal granularity (Gagnon et al. 2024). Information about Cambium and related publications can be found at https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/cambium.html, and the Cambium data sets can be viewed and downloaded at https://scenarioviewer.nrel.gov/. In this documentation, we describe Cambium 2023's scenarios, define the metrics, and document the Cambium-specific methods for calculating those metrics.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Xanthos Output Dataset Under ISIMIP3b Selected CMIP6 Scenarios: 1850 - 2100 (Basin and Regional Scale)

Xanthos is an open-source hydrologic model, written in Python, designed to quantify and analyze global water availability. Xanthos simulates historical and future global water availability on a monthly time step at a spatial resolution of 0.5 geographic degrees. Xanthos was designed to be extensible and used by scientists that study global water supply and work with the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM). Xanthos Output Dataset This dataset includes Xanthos outputs forced by the ISIMIP3b bias-adjusted CMIP6 climate forcing (1850 - 2100). There are 30 scenarios consists of 10 CMIP6 GCMs and 3 SSP-RCP scenarios. (1) 10 CMIP6 GCMs: GFDL-ESM4, IPSL-CM6A-LR, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, MRI-ESM2-0, UKESM1-0-LL, CanESM5, CNRM-CM6-1, CNRM-ESM2-1, EC-Earth3, and MIROC6 (2) 3 SSP-RCP Scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 The output variables in this dataset are aggregated to basin and regional scales. (1) Monthly runoff at basin scale (2) Annual accessible renewable water at basin scale (2) Annual actual hydropower production, hydropower potential, and exploitable hydropower potential at regional scale

Climate Change↗

DOE OSTI2023

Xanthos Output Dataset Under ISIMIP3b Selected CMIP6 Scenarios: 1850 - 2100

Overview Xanthos is an open-source hydrologic model, written in Python, designed to quantify and analyze global water availability. Xanthos simulates historical and future global water availability on a monthly time step at a spatial resolution of 0.5 geographic degrees. Xanthos was designed to be extensible and used by scientists that study global water supply and work with the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM). Details This dataset includes Xanthos outputs forced by the ISIMIP3b bias-adjusted CMIP6 climate forcing (1850 - 2100). There are 30 scenarios consists of 10 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) General Circulation Models (GCM) and 3 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP). Each folder is named as cmip6_{gcm}_{ensemble-member}_{ssp}. 10 CMIP6 GCMs: GFDL-ESM4, IPSL-CM6A-LR, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, MRI-ESM2-0, UKESM1-0-LL, CanESM5, CNRM-CM6-1, CNRM-ESM2-1, EC-Earth3, and MIROC6 3 SSP-RCP Scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 The table below summarizes the details of output variables within each scenario folder. | Output Variable | File Short Name | Spatial Resolution | Unit | | ----------------------------------------------- | -------------------------------------- | -------------------------------- | --------------------- | | Runoff | q | 0.5x0.5 degree | km3/month | | Runoff | Basin_runoff | GCAM basin | km3/month | | Runoff | Country_runoff | Country | km3/month | | Runoff | GCAMRegion_runoff | GCAM region | km3/month | | Streamflow | avgchflow | 0.5x0.5 degree | m3/second | | Potential Evapotranspiration | pet | 0.5x0.5 degree | km3/month | | Actual Evapotranspiration | aet | 0.5x0.5 degree | km3/month | | Accessible Water | accessible_water | GCAM basin | km3/year | | Hydropower Generation | actual_hydro | GCAM region | EJ/year |

Climate Change↗

DOE OSTI2023

Xanthos Output Dataset Under ISIMIP3b Selected CMIP6 Scenarios: 1850 - 2100

Climate Change↗

NASA NTRS2013

Designing Scenarios for Controller-in-the-Loop Air Traffic Simulations

Within the Human Factors Division at NASA Ames Research Center the Airspace Operations Laboratory (AOL) is developing advanced automation concepts that help to transform the National Airspace System into NextGen, the Next Generation Air Transportation System. High-fidelity human-in-the-loop (HITL) simulations are used as a means to investigate and develop roles, responsibilities, support tools, and requirements for human operators and automation. This paper describes the traffic scenario design process and strategies as used by AOL researchers. Details are presented on building scenarios for specific simulation objectives using various design strategies. A focus is set on creating scenarios based on recorded real world traffic for terminal-area simulations.

scenario design↗

NASA NTRS2020

Design and Implementation of a Scenario Development Process for a 2040 Trajectory-Based Operations Simulation

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is supporting research to transition from a legacy, air traffic management (ATM) system to Trajectory-Based Operations (TBO) environment targeting the 2035-2045 timeframe by creating simulation scenarios for current and future studies. TBO in the National Airspace System (NAS) focuses on modernizing the current operating paradigm to increase efficiency, predictability, resilience, and flexibility while migrating toward greater operational autonomy across the airspace. These simulation scenarios offer a wide dissemination and use of system-level constraints and aircraft state/intent data, routine use of data communications to request complex trajectory modifications and to receive clearances, and aircraft that are flying on 4-D trajectories with flexibility when desired, but structure where required. This report describes the end-to-end development of scenarios for the NASA Langley Research Center simulation environment to represent a 2040 Trajectory-Based Operations airspace for air transport operations research.

Trajectory-Based Operations↗

NASA NTRS2020

Identification of Scenarios for System Interface Design Evaluation: CAST SE-210 Output 2 Report 5 of 6

This report is one in a series of reports describing research to develop enhanced approaches to design and evaluation of flight deck interaction. The research was conducted to support the Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) response to incidents and accidents caused by failure of the flight crew to maintain aircraft attitude or energy state awareness. This report partially responds to Safety Enhancement (SE) 210.2 (CAST, 2014) by describing development of operational scenarios for evaluation of flight crew interaction. Evaluations of human performance with an interface rely on asking humans to perform operational tasks in an appropriate operational context. The report includes the major sources of material for developing operational scenarios—which include system state, operational tasks, operational context, and safety events—and a method for developing an appropriate set of operational scenarios for interface evaluation.

commercial aviation↗

NASA NTRS2023

Aviation 2072: Scenario Planning for Wicked Problems

The world is changing rapidly. And with it, so are the potential futures for humanity. Many of these potential futures pose hidden threats, while others offer new opportunities for aviation and the broader aerospace community. To mitigate these risks and capitalize on opportunities, organizations must work to deeply understand these potential future scenarios and uncover any underlying drivers. Organizations will be more equipped and informed when making strategic investment decisions by better understanding these threats, opportunities, and drivers . The future scenarios and their threats and opportunities described in this paper were identified through a series of extensive brainstorming workshops, collectively titled MADNESS (Mapping for Aviation Driven by Needs Emergence and Satiating Society). These workshops engaged NASA civil servants and contractors with diverse backgrounds through a facilitated process of future scenario development and critique. The participants were led through exercises focused on a time horizon spanning from 2022 to 2072 and on problems that aviation might solve and or create during this period. From the broad results, two patterns of critical uncertainty emerged: “availability” (scarcity versus abundance) and “transparency” (openness versus security and privacy). The successful iteration and ideation across the MADNESS workshops also suggests a repeatable mechanism for strategic risk exploration across a variety of NASA and industry stakeholders.

Mapping↗

DOE OSTI2020

Scenario Creation and Power-Conditioning Strategies for Operating Power Grids with Two-Stage Stochastic Economic Dispatch: Preprint

A significant difficultly associated with the use of stochastic programming to solve optimal power flow problems on a 5-minute timescale is the quality of renewable energy scenarios input by the user. This is especially true when considering power systems with high penetrations of renewable energy, e.g. wind power. This paper introduces the use of stochastic programming to solve the DCOPF problem with scenarios drawn directly from high-fidelity data sets. Hence, the proposed method avoids the problem of lost physics by finding high-fidelity analogs that can describe future states of the system. Furthermore, this method can be simply extended to output multi-period scenarios to the stochastic program. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this technique on simulated dispatch operations of the RTS-GMLC over a week.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Scenario Creation and Power-Conditioning Strategies for Operating Power Grids with Two-Stage Stochastic Economic Dispatch

analog forecast↗