A High Flux Forest Fire Scenario for Assessing Relative Model Accuracy for CFD Tools.
Abstract not provided.
Brown, Alexander↗
SEARCH · Engineering Papers
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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Applying a Multisector Scenario Framework to Evaluate Past and Future Public Surface Water Supply Infrastructure Strategies in Texas
Datasets supporting the index model and scenario analysis used in evaluating surface water supply strategies across different water system types in Texas. These data underpin the scenario development and application of five key indicators: Water Availability Index (WAI), Water Quality Index (WQI), Energy Requirement Index (ERI), Water Treatment Cost (WTC), and Water Infrastructure Cost (WIC). The datasets are organized by system type—stream reaches (flowlines), waterbodies, and reservoirs—and include both raw and standardized index values. The integrated datasets also provide scenario classifications (original and adjusted) based on infrastructure and planning priorities, enabling comparison across Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Additional strategy-level data are included to support evaluation of state-level new reservoir projects in relation to cost and availability tradeoffs. Please refer to the README file provided in Files for more details. Descriptions of the datasets are provided below. Dataset(s) Descriptions Folder: Index_model_database.zip Subfolder: Stream_reach.zip Fl_wf.csv, Fl_wq.csv, Fl_er.csv, Fl_wf_wtcUV.csv, Fl_wf_wtcnoUV.csv, Fl_allfac_wic1.csv, Fl_allfac_wic2.csvDatasets for computing WAI, WQI, ERI, WTC, and WIC for surface water systems classified as stream reaches (flowlines). Subfolder: Waterbody.zip Wb_wf.csv, Wb_wq.csv, Wb_er.csv, Wb_wf_wtcUV.csv, Wb_wf_wtcnoUV.csv, Wb_allfac_wic1.csv, Wb_allfac_wic2.csvEquivalent index model datasets for waterbodies, reflecting hydrologic and infrastructure attributes specific to impounded natural systems. Subfolder: Reservoir.zip Rs_wf.csv, Rs_wq.csv, Rs_er.csv, Rs_wf_wtcUV.csv, Rs_wf_wtcnoUV.csv, Rs_allfac_wic1.csv, Rs_allfac_wic2.csvIndex model datasets specific to regulated reservoir systems, incorporating both resource indicators and cost parameters. Folder: Integrated data.zip combined_merged_data.csv, combined_merged_data_scenario.csvDatasets integrating index model indicators (both raw and scaled) with scenario classifications, including adjustments reflecting SSP-aligned transitions and planning shifts. Folder: Additional data.zip wai_supplystrat_wic_merged.csvCurated dataset capturing proposed major reservoir-based municipal water supply strategies in Texas. Integrates site-level planning data with estimated capital infrastructure costs and water availability scores for comparative assessment.
geospatial↗
Community Energy by Design: A Simulation-Based Design Workflow Using Measured Data Clustering to Calibrate Urban Building Energy Models (UBEMs)
This paper presents a workflow that informs urban design decisions using measured data clustering to calibrate urban building energy models. The method's goal is to support urban design in terms of form, building systems configurations, as well as influencing user behavior aspects in the built environment through a systemic analysis of measured data to develop reliable future-case design scenario energy models. Detailed data on appliance-level electricity use are employed via data clustering to calibrate a urban building energy model for the Mueller community in Austin, TX, USA. The data were collected by the Pecan Street Institute for a year in 2014 from consumers in Austin and other surrounding cities. First, collected energy data were restructured and cleaned from corrupt and/or missing information. Second, in order to identify common energy use patterns, a model-based clustering algorithm for functional data was applied. Behavioral/usage profiles are determined through clustering and translated into usage schedules and behaviors. As a result, an urban building energy model built in the urban modeling interface (umi) was calibrated, with fully calibrated and semi-calibrated buildings, within a maximum calibration error margin of 14% for daily-scale averages. Finally, an illustration of calibrated-urban building energy model design case scenarios is presented, and implications on community energy potential effects are discussed.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Fast and Accurate Core Analysis by the Full-Immersion Pressure-Pulse Decay: Part 1—Theory
Summary Core-scale measurements are considered the ground truth that oil and gas or electric utility companies use to predict the migration of fluids such as oil, natural gas, carbon dioxide, or brine deep underground during their extraction or injection operations. To provide a greater understanding of petrophysical properties of low-permeability geologic formations such as shales and tight gas sandstones, this study introduces a novel core-analysis procedure. The technique follows conventional pressure-pulse-decay permeametry, where the pressure in an inlet chamber adjacent to a cylindrical core plug undergoes a rapid pressurization, the system is shut in, and the pressure reaches a new equilibrium. However, unlike a standard unidirectional pressure-pulse decay, the full-immersion pressure-pulse decay (Hannon 2019) applies a pressure disturbance to the entire outer surface area of the sample. This article covers the numerical simulator designed to model flow through an anisotropic porous sample in this scenario. The model assumes distinct but uniform permeabilities along the radial and axial directions of the cylindrical plug sample. When extracting a plug vertically (or perpendicular to bedding), the permeability along the radial direction associates with the horizontal permeability (i.e., parallel to bedding), whereas in the axial direction, flow occurs perpendicular to bedding (a vertical permeability). Investigations of these model outputs demonstrate an approximately 20-fold decrease in time to complete a full-immersion experiment compared with conventional pressure-pulse decay. Furthermore, the pressure-decay curves resulting from the full-immersion method have slightly different shapes than those resulting from other unidimensional transient methods. These differences begin to demonstrate that, under achievable experimental conditions, the analysis of pressure data from one full-immersion test could enable the simultaneous estimation of the apparent permeabilities parallel and perpendicular to bedding of a cylindrical sample in addition to its porosity. A follow-up article finalizes the proof of this capability with a parameter-estimation procedure and presents experimental verification through a proof-of-concept study. Described in greater detail in that article, the parameter estimator requires multiple forward simulations to analyze the data, which behooves minimizing the compute time for each simulation. By using an alternating direction implicit time-marching scheme and a structured but variably spaced grid, the numerical simulator built for this purpose provides a forward model output with suitable accuracy in approximately 0.5 seconds.
Energy & Fuels↗
Modeling In-Reactor Temperature Gradients in Lithium Aluminate Ceramic Pellets
In reactor thermal performance of lithium aluminate ceramic pellets are calculated to determine operating temperatures if internal components shift during irradiation. A 2D conduction model was setup to model this scenario with additional physics, including thermal expansion of components to reactor temperatures, creep down of the cladding due to differential pressure between the inside of the rod and reactor coolant system, and net radiation exchange between components. The non-linear coupling of the governing equations presented convergence challenges due to the very different effects from a small temperature change on the radiation vs radial and circumferential conduction equations. Initial temperature guesses for the multidimensional solution were provided from conservative 1D models simulating bounding scenarios. Convergence was greatly improved by taking small steps towards the root solutions and averaging with initial guesses. The final method robustly converged all 132 points at an axial plane after a few dozen iterations. The temperature results show that the additional physics have a secondary effect as the dominant heat transfer mechanism is radial conduction across the gas gap followed by circumferential conduction around components. Circumferential conduction in the lithium aluminate pellets is enhanced by the relatively high thermal conductivity of this ceramic.
Carstens, Nathan A.↗
Integrated Process Testing of MSR Salt Spill Accidents
Part of the licensing process for new nuclear reactors requires vendors to assess the potential consequences of identified accident scenarios using accident progression modeling. The accident scenario that will likely be evaluated by all molten salt reactor (MSR) developers is a spill of radionuclide-bearing fuel salt onto the reactor containment floor (i.e., a salt spill accident). The development of accident progression models requires experimental data to inform which processes to incorporate, to enable the calculation of parameters to model these processes, and to validate the model predictions. The data should quantify the sensitivities of key processes (e.g., molten salt spreading, heat transfer, containment structure corrosion, radionuclide vaporization, and aerosol generation) towards the initial conditions of the spill, the ambient environment, and the features of the containment. In addition, results from integrated process tests that quantify coupled processes are required to validate systems-level models. This report documents results from integrated process tests conducted on simulated molten salt spill accidents. The generated experimental data simultaneously quantify the heat transfer behavior of the spilled salt, compositional changes to the bulk salt, and the release of surrogate fission products from the spilled salt as aerosol particles. All tests that were conducted used FLiNaK doped with surrogate fission products, and the variables that were evaluated included the initial salt temperature and the concentration of surrogate fission products present in the salt. The major accomplishments of this work include identifying surrogate fuel salt compositions that provide insight into the dispersal behavior of radionuclides of potential significance to the source term, employing previously developed methods and measurement techniques to simultaneously measure key processes, generating data on the coupled processes of molten salt heat transfer and surrogate fission product release as aerosol particles, demonstrating new test methods for real-time monitoring of the flow rate of the spill and aerosol size quantification in an argon atmosphere, and developing a mass transfer model for cesium and iodine release from molten FLiNaK to provide insight into aerosol formation by vapor condensation. The same methodology applied herein can be employed to study different salt compositions of interest to MSR developers, different environmental conditions, and other variables that are relevant to postulated accident scenarios. The insights gained from these integrated process tests conducted at a laboratory scale will be incorporated into future integral effects tests conducted at an engineering scale.
20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
Reduced model for direct induction startup scenario development on MAST-U and NSTX-U
A reduced semi-empirical model using time-dependent axisymmetric vacuum field calculations is used to develop the prefill and feed-forward coil current targets required for reliable direct induction (DI) startup on the new MA-class spherical tokamaks, MAST-U and NSTX-U. The calculations are constrained by operational limits unique to each device, such as the geometry of the conductive elements and active coils, power supply specifications and coil heating and stress limits. The calculations are also constrained by semi-empirical models for sufficient breakdown, current drive, equilibrium and stability of the plasma developed from a shared database. A large database of DI startup on NSTX and NSTX-U is leveraged to quantify the requirements for achieving a reliable breakdown (I p ~ 20 kA). It is observed that without pre-ionization, STs access the large E/P regime at modest loop voltage (V loop ) where the electrons in the weakly ionized plasma are continually accelerating along the open field lines. This ensures a rapid (order millisecond) breakdown of the neutral gas, even without pre-ionization or high-quality field nulls. The timescale of the initial increase in I p on NSTX is reproduced in the reduced model provided a mechanism for impeding the applied electric field is included. Most discharges that fail in the startup phase are due to an inconsistency in the evolution of the plasma current (I p ) and equilibrium field or loss of vertical stability during the burn-through phase. Here, the requirements for the self-consistent evolution of the fields in the weakly and fully-ionized plasma states are derived from demonstrated DI startup on NSTX, NSTX-U and MAST. The predictive calculations completed for MAST-U and NSTX-U illustrate that the maximum I p ramp rate (dI p /dt) in the early startup phase is limited by the voltage limits on the poloidal field coils on MAST-U and passive vertical stability on NSTX-U.
70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
Geothermal Reservoir Simulation Analysis in Support of Electricity Co-Production Feasibility Study at the Blackburn Oil Field, Nevada: Preprint
Geothermal electricity co-production is a viable option for oil reservoirs producing large water cuts with elevated wellhead-observed temperatures. Repurposing existing oil wells significantly reduces initial investment costs historically associated with geothermal resource utilization. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), partnering with Gradient Geothermal, Inc. (formerly known as Transitional Energy) and Grant Canyon Oil and Gas, has been tasked to evaluate the feasibility of geothermal electricity co-production at the Blackburn Oil Field with Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) generators. The Devonian steady-state reservoir has historically been producing high water cuts of 240 degrees F (115.6 degrees C) observed at the wellhead without documented pressure drawdown or thermal breakthrough. An estimated initial reservoir temperature of approx. 260degreesF (126.7 degrees C) has been observed in the field and history-matched in a wellbore production analysis and reservoir simulation. Our objective was to develop a conceptual geological model of the subsurface, simulate a natural-state reservoir, model production scenarios, and complete a technical feasibility analysis to accomplish this task. Through extensive modeling and the use of available proprietary and public data, it was possible simulate three scenarios that indicated minimal thermal decline over the duration of a simulated ten-year production and re-injection scheme.
Blackburn Nevada↗
Geothermal Reservoir Simulation Analysis in Support of Electricity Co-Production Feasibility Study at the Blackburn Oil Field, Nevada
Geothermal electricity co-production is a viable option for oil reservoirs producing large water cuts with elevated wellhead temperatures. Repurposing existing oil wells significantly reduces initial investment costs historically associated with geothermal resource utilization. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), partnering with Gradient Geothermal, Inc. (formerly known as Transitional Energy) and Grant Canyon Oil and Gas, has been tasked to evaluate the feasibility of geothermal electricity co-production at the Blackburn Oil Field with Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) generators. The Devonian steady-state reservoir has historically been producing high water cuts of 240 degrees F (115.6 degrees C) observed at the wellhead without documented pressure drawdown or thermal breakthrough. An estimated initial reservoir temperature of approx. 260 degrees F (126.7 degrees C) has been observed in the field and history-matched in a wellbore production analysis and reservoir simulation. Our objective was to develop a conceptual geological model of the subsurface, simulate a natural-state reservoir, model production scenarios, and complete a technical feasibility analysis to accomplish this task. Through extensive modeling and the use of available proprietary and public data, it was possible simulate three scenarios that indicated minimal thermal decline over the duration of a simulated ten-year production and re-injection scheme.
Blackburn Nevada↗
Long-term basin-scale hydropower expansion under alternative scenarios in a global multisector model
Abstract Hydropower is an important source of renewable, low-carbon energy. Global and regional energy systems, including hydropower, may evolve in a variety of ways under different scenarios. Representation of hydropower in global multisector models is often simplified at the country or regional level. Some models assume a fixed hydropower supply, which is not affected by economic drivers or competition with other electricity generation sources. Here, we implement an endogenous model of hydropower expansion in the Global Change Analysis Model, including a representation of hydropower potential at the river basin level to project future hydropower production across river basins and explore hydropower’s role in evolving energy systems both regionally and globally, under alternative scenarios. Each scenario utilizes the new endogenous hydropower implementation but makes different assumptions about future low-carbon transitions, technology costs, and energy demand. Our study suggests there is ample potential for hydropower to expand in the future to help meet growing demand for electricity driven by socioeconomic growth, electrification of end-use sectors, or other factors. However, hydropower expansion will be constrained by resource availability, resource location, and cost in ways that limit its growth relative to other technologies. As a result, all scenarios show a generally decreasing share of hydroelectricity over total electricity generation at the global level. Hydropower expansion varies across regions, and across basins within regions, due to differences in resource potential, cost, current utilization, and other factors. In sum, our scenarios entail hydropower generation growth between 36% and 119% in 2050, compared to 2015, globally.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Differentiable modelling to unify machine learning and physical models for geosciences
Process-based modelling offers interpretability and physical consistency in many domains of geosciences but struggles to leverage large datasets efficiently. Machine-learning methods, especially deep networks, have strong predictive skills yet are unable to answer specific scientific questions. Here, in this Perspective, we explore differentiable modelling as a pathway to dissolve the perceived barrier between process-based modelling and machine learning in the geosciences and demonstrate its potential with examples from hydrological modelling. ‘Differentiable’ refers to accurately and efficiently calculating gradients with respect to model variables or parameters, enabling the discovery of high-dimensional unknown relationships. Differentiable modelling involves connecting (flexible amounts of) prior physical knowledge to neural networks, pushing the boundary of physics-informed machine learning. It offers better interpretability, generalizability, and extrapolation capabilities than purely data-driven machine learning, achieving a similar level of accuracy while requiring less training data. Additionally, the performance and efficiency of differentiable models scale well with increasing data volumes. Under data-scarce scenarios, differentiable models have outperformed machine-learning models in producing short-term dynamics and decadal-scale trends owing to the imposed physical constraints. Differentiable modelling approaches are primed to enable geoscientists to ask questions, test hypotheses, and discover unrecognized physical relationships. Future work should address computational challenges, reduce uncertainty, and verify the physical significance of outputs.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
WellPINN: Accurate Well Representation for Transient Fluid Pressure Diffusion in Subsurface Reservoirs With Physics‐Informed Neural Networks
Accurate representation of pumping wells is essential for reliable reservoir characterization and simulation of operational scenarios in subsurface flow models. Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) are emerging as a promising alternative to numerical models for reservoir modeling, offering seamless integration of monitoring data and governing physical equations. However, existing PINN-based studies face major challenges in capturing fluid pressure near wells when using a source/sink term, particularly during the early stages after pumping begins. We address this problem by introducing WellPINN, a workflow in which an initially trained PINN infers fluid pressure across the entire reservoir domain using a large equivalent well radius. This initial PINN solution is then locally refined around the well by a set of subdomain PINNs that are trained for smaller equivalent well radii. Continuity across these subdomain interfaces as well as at the initial condition is ensured by hard-constraining each PINN on its subdomain boundary. Our results demonstrate WellPINN as the first workflow of its kind to focus on accurate inference of fluid pressure from pumping rates throughout the entire injection period, significantly advancing the potential of PINNs for inverse modeling and operational scenario simulations. All data and code for this paper are openly available at https://doi.org/10.20350/DIGITALCSIC/17260.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
WIMP cogenesis for asymmetric dark matter and the baryon asymmetry
We propose a new mechanism where asymmetric dark matter (ADM) and the baryon asymmetry are both generated in the same decay chain of a metastable weakly interacting massive particle (WIMP) after its thermal freezeout. Dark matter and baryons are connected by a generalized baryon number that is conserved, while the DM asymmetry and baryon asymmetry compensate each other. This unified framework addresses the DM-baryon coincidence while inheriting the merit of the conventional WIMP miracle in predicting relic abundances of matter. Examples of renormalizable models realizing this scenario are presented. These models generically predict ADM with sub-GeV to GeV-scale mass that interacts with Standard Model quarks or leptons, thus rendering potential signatures at direct detection experiments sensitive to low mass DM. Other interesting phenomenological predictions are also discussed, including: LHC signatures of new intermediate particles with color or electroweak charge and DM induced nucleon decay; the long-lived WIMP may be within reach of future high energy collider experiments.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Formation and Evolution Simulations of Saturn, Including Composition Gradients and Helium Immiscibility
In this paper, the formation of Saturn is modeled by detailed numerical simulations according to the core-nucleated accretion scenario. Previous models are enhanced to include the dissolution of accreting planetesimals, composed of water ice, rock, and iron, in the gaseous envelope of the planet, leading to a nonuniform composition with depth. The immiscibility of helium in metallic hydrogen layers is also considered. The calculations start at a mass of 0.5 Earth masses and are extended to the present day. At 4.57 Gyr, the model, proceeding outward, has the following structure: (i) a central core composed of 100% heavy elements and molecules, (ii) a region with a decreasing heavy-element mass fraction, down to a value of 0.1, (iii) a layer of uniform composition with the helium mass fraction Y enhanced over the primordial value, (iv) a helium rain region with a gradient in Y, (v) an outer convective, adiabatic region with uniform composition in which Y is reduced from the primordial value, and (vi) the very outer layers where cloud condensation of the heavy elements occurs. Models of the distribution of heavy elements as a function of radius are compared with those derived to fit the observations of the Cassini mission, with rough qualitative agreement. The helium mass fraction in Saturn’s outer layers is estimated to be around 20%. Models are found that provide good agreement with Saturn’s intrinsic luminosity and radius.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Reduced-Order Modeling of Hydrogen Releases from Vent Stacks and with Wind
This report describes computational modeling in the HyRAM+ software for study of hydrogen behavior in two common scenarios. First, models of unignited plumes exiting a vent stack were considered. It was shown that entrainment and vent backpressure were major factors in plume physics. Second, HyRAM+ was extended to include wind effects on plumes by modifying the plume momentum balance and entrainment modeling. Use of the model showed that plume shape and length changed with wind speed and direction; in all cases, wind causes a shortening of the plume along the streamline. While the no-wind case in HyRAM+ has been validated and the newly developed wind model was fitted to very limited experimental data, more controlled experimental configurations would help validate the models and ensure accurate simulation of hydrogen plume behavior for vent stack releases or in wind.
08 HYDROGEN↗
Potential Availability of and Supply Curves for Low-Cost, Dispatch-Constrained Electricity
Among other changes, variable renewable energy (VRE) - primarily wind and solar photovoltaics - is achieving a growing share of total generation. High VRE penetrations may result in an increased level of curtailment and thus suppress the value of additional VRE. This VRE, that either would not be built due to price suppression or would be curtailed, can be considered a resource that we define as low-cost, dispatch-constrained electricity (LDE). LDE could be used for various applications which value low-cost electricity and can operate at reduced capacity factors. Examples include electrolytic hydrogen production and carbon capture. This report provides initial estimates of the quantity and availability of the potential LDE resource in the U.S. under scenarios with high VRE penetrations. It also provides supply curves that can be used in subsequent analysis of the opportunity to use the LDE. We modeled several scenarios using capacity expansion and production cost models for LDE prices ranging from $\$ $0/MWh to $\$ $30/MWh. These LDE prices, coupled with low renewable energy cost assumptions, resulted in VRE penetrations ranging from 48-66% in 2050. The resulting LDE supplies range from 100 - 300 TWh/yr at a price of $\$ $0/MWh to 3,500 - 4,200 TWh/yr at $\$ $30/MWh. Increasing LDE prices increases wind and photovoltaics deployment; however, other generation technology capacities do not decrease equivalently in our models. Thus, additional generation is available but the capacity of traditional dispatchable generation is only reduced slightly. The available LDE is concentrated in the central and southwest U.S. regions because of their high wind and solar resources.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
ISMIP6-based Antarctic projections to 2100: simulations with the BISICLES ice sheet model
The contribution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is one of the most uncertain components of sea level rise to 2100. Ice sheet models are the primary tool for projecting future sea level contribution from continental ice sheets. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 6 (ISMIP6) provided projections of the ice sheet contribution to sea level over the 21st century, quantifying uncertainty due to ice sheet model, climate model, emission scenario, and uncertain parameters. We present simulations following the ISMIP6 framework with the BISICLES ice sheet model and new experiments extending the ISMIP6 protocol to more comprehensively sample uncertainties in future climate, ice shelf sensitivity to ocean melting, and their interactions. These results contributed to the land ice projections of Edwards et al. (2021), which formed the basis of sea level projections for the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (AR6). Our experiments show the important interplay between surface mass balance processes and ocean-driven melt in determining Antarctic sea level contribution. Under higher-warming scenarios, high accumulation offsets more ocean-driven mass loss when sensitivity to ocean-driven melt is low. Conversely, we show that when sensitivity to ocean warming is high, ocean melting drives increased mass loss despite high accumulation. Overall, we simulate a sea level contribution range across our experiments from 2 to 178 mm. Finally, we show that collapse of ice shelves due to surface warming increases sea level contribution by 25 mm relative to the no-collapse experiments, for both moderate and high sensitivity of ice shelf melting to ocean forcing.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗