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At least 181 records · Page 10

Expected individual benefit of prophylactic platelet transfusions in hemato‐oncology patients based on bleeding risks

Abstract Background Prophylactic platelet transfusions prevent bleeding in hemato‐oncology patients, but it is unclear how any benefit varies between patients. Our aim was to assess if patients with different baseline risks for bleeding benefit differently from a prophylactic platelet transfusion strategy. Study design and methods Using the data from the randomized controlled TOPPS trial (Trial of Platelet Prophylaxis), we developed a prediction model for World Health Organization grades 2, 3, and 4 bleeding risk (defined as at least one bleeding episode in a 30 days period) and grouped patients in four risk‐quartiles based on this predicted baseline risk. Predictors in the model were baseline platelet count, age, diagnosis, disease modifying treatment, disease status, previous stem cell transplantation, and the randomization arm. Results The model had a c‐statistic of 0.58 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.54–0.64). There was little variation in predicted risks (quartiles 46%, 47%, and 51%), but prophylactic platelet transfusions gave a risk reduction in all risk quartiles. The absolute risk difference (ARD) was 3.4% (CI −12.2 to 18.9) in the lowest risk quartile (quartile 1), 7.4% (95% CI −8.4 to 23.3) in quartile 2, 6.8% (95% CI −9.1 to 22.9) in quartile 3, and 12.8% (CI −3.1 to 28.7) in the highest risk quartile (quartile 4). Conclusion In our study, generally accepted bleeding risk predictors had limited predictive power (expressed by the low c‐statistic), and, given the wide confidence intervals of predicted ARD, could not aid in identifying subgroups of patients who might benefit more (or less) from prophylactic platelet transfusion.

Cornelissen, Loes L.↗

Integration of sensors through additive manufacturing leading to increased efficiencies of gas turbines for power generation and propulsion

To realize the full capability of additively manufactured components in complex energy systems, it is imperative to minimize early component failures during development phases and during operation. Traditional field feedback timelines and offline inspection protocols significantly reduce the design-manufacturing iteration times. To address this specific question, the project developed and demonstrated a method for the integration of sensors into complex components through additive manufacturing. The team used gas turbine engines as a platform, which meets the need of both power generation and propulsion and offer opportunities for cost reductions and efficiency increases. The innovation of this intelligent integration of sensors into complex components uniquely customized to address questions of integrity and durability for additively manufactured components. With real-time sensing data from additively manufactured components, turbine manufacturers will realize higher efficiencies, reduced component failures, and a 30-50% acceleration in product deployment of high efficiency gas turbine components due to a faster reduction in component risk assessment under actual operating conditions. This is a transformative shift towards a data-driven design and qualification of additively manufactured gas turbine components. To directly integrate sensors into additively manufactured components with all the complexities of actual hardware, powder bed fusion (direct metal laser sintering) and laser metal deposition technologies was developed. Validation took take place in two university laboratories both of which contain actual engine hardware and closely simulate a gas turbine prior to demonstrating the technology in a turbine development test. Indeed, two major technologies from this research cold impact turbine systems in the near future: (1) higher efficiency materials and designs enabled by additive manufacturing with 50% faster design to manufacturing cycle time, to enable faster time-to-market targets; and (2) integration of sensors into additively manufactured components enabling broad health and condition based prognostics for faster component and engine risk reduction.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Updated Analysis of the Trash Compaction and Processing System: Water Collected from Trash, Evaluation of the Source Contaminant Control System, and Zotek® F30 Foam Processing

The Trash Compaction and Processing System (TCPS) aims to reduce volume, biologically safen, physically stabilize, manage effluents, and recover resources from astronaut trash in the International Space Station (ISS). At NASA Ames Research Center (ARC), there are two test systems: the Heat Melt Compactor (HMC), which compacts the trash into a tile with temperature and pressure, and the Source Contaminant Control System (SCCS), which is the gas management subsystem aimed to reduce contaminants by converting them into carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and water (H 2 O) vapor. Both the HMC and SCCS serve as test systems that support TCPS development by conducting risk reduction activities associated with an ISS technology demonstration. In this paper, the risk reduction activities discussed are the testing of different trash models for operational scenarios in the HMC, investigating the water extracted from those trash models, and managing the gaseous effluents from the trash via contaminant conversion through the SCCS. The HMC has undergone several tests of different trash models and cases in which a containment bag is used or not. For the first topic, this paper will analyze the water collected and recovered from these tests and analyze the effect of specific trash containment bags. For the second topic, this paper will individually evaluate the carbon bed and catalytic oxidizer (CatOx) to understand what components the carbon bed removes and what contaminants are converted in the CatOx. For the third and final topic, this paper will discuss Zotek® F30 foam processing in the HMC unit and testing verification in correlation to defined TCPS requirements. A foam model was added to reduce the volume of foam that take up space in the ISS. Overall, this paper is a compilation and an updated analysis of tests conducted in the lab-scale TCPS at ARC within the past year.

TCPS↗

Design reuse experience of space and hazardous operations robots

A comparison of design drivers for space and hazardous nuclear waste operating robots details similarities and differences in operations, performance and environmental parameters for these critical environments. The similarities are exploited to provide low risk system components based on reuse principles and design knowledge. Risk reduction techniques are used for bridging areas of significant differences. As an example, risk reduction of a new sensor design for nuclear environment operations is employed to provide upgradeable replacement units in a reusable architecture for significantly higher levels of radiation.

Oneil, P. Graham↗

Mission Concept for a Europa Lander

A NASA HQ-directed study team led by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) with partners including Applied Physics Lab, Marshall Space Flight Center, Goddard Space Flight Center, Langley Research Center and Sandia National Laboratory has recently presented a mission concept for a Europa Lander that would search for bio-signatures and signs of life in the near-subsurface of the Jovian moon. The mission would follow the Europa Clipper multiple-flyby mission, planned for launch in June of 2022, which would provide reconnaissance imagery and other data to the Lander for use in selecting a scientifically compelling site and certifying it for engineering safety. The Europa Lander concept accommodates the Model Payload identified by the Europa Lander Science Definition Team (SDT) and documented in the Europa Lander Study 2016 Report released in February of 2017. The currently envisioned Europa Lander would launch on an SLS Block 1B as early as October of 2025 into a VEGA trajectory, arriving in the Jovian system as early as July of 2030. The baseline design of the integrated flight system includes a dedicated Carrier and Relay Stage, a Deorbit Vehicle composed of a Deorbit Stage consisting of a solid rocket motor (SRM), an MSL-like sky-crane Descent Stage, and a Lander which accommodates the instrument suite. The Lander would be powered by primary batteries over a 20-day surface mission. The science goals envisioned by the SDT require five samples taken from a depth of 10cm, a depth chosen to ensure minimal radiation processing of the potential biomarkers. Mission challenges include the large launch mass, unknown terrain topography, surface composition and materials properties, the high radiation environment, and complying with stringent planetary protection requirements. The mission concept uses a strategy of early risk reduction and overlapping requirements to provide robustness to harsh and uncertain environments. Early risk reduction efforts are aimed at maturing technologies associated with the sampling system, the intelligent landing system, high specific energy batteries, low mass and power motor controllers, and a thermal sterilization system.

Dooley, Jennifer↗

Overview of NASA's Solar Electric Propulsion Project

NASA is continuing to develop and qualify a state of the art 13 kW-class Advanced Electric Propulsion System (AEPS) for NASA exploration missions through a contract with Aerojet Rocketdyne (AR). An objective of the AEPS project is accelerate the adoption of high power electric propulsion technologies by reducing the risk and uncertainty of integrating Solar Electric Propulsion (SEP) technologies into space flight systems. NASA and AR have recently initiated testing of engineering hardware including the Hall Current Thruster (HCT), Power Processing Unit (PPU), and Xenon Flow Controller (XFC) at both the component and system levels. The successful completion of these tests will provide the required information to advance the AEPS system towards Critical Design Review. In support of the AEPS contract, NASA and JPL have been performing risk reduction activities to address specific concerns of this higher power Hall thruster propulsion system. These risk reduction activities have included long duration wear testing of the Technology Demonstration Unit (TDU) Hall thruster and cathode hardware, thermal cycling of TDU cathode heaters and coils, plasma plume measurements, and performed early circuit testing of the AEPS PPU design. In addition to the propulsion system development, the SEP project is developing the Plasma Diagnostic Package (PDP) and the SEP Testbed. The PDP is designed for use in conjunction with a high-powered electric propulsion (EP) system to characterize in-space operation. The SEP Testbed system is being developed to demonstrate integrated SEP system performance. The paper presents an overview of the NASA and the AEPS contract activities and a summary of the associated NASA in-house activities.

Plasma diagnostics package↗

Risk Assessment of Physiological Effects of Atmospheric Composition and Pressure in Constellation Vehicles

To reduce denitrogenation time to prevent decompression sickness to support frequent extravehicular activities on the Moon, and to limit the risk of fire, a hypobaric (P(sub B) = 414 mmHg) and mildly hypoxic (ppO2 = 132 mmHg, 32% O2 - 68% N2) living environment is being considered during lunar missions for the Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) and Lunar Surface Access Module (LSAM). If the vehicular ppO2 is acutely changed from 145-178 mmHg at standard vehicular operating pressure to less than 125 mmHg at desired lunar surface outpost operating pressures, there is the possibility that some crewmembers may develop symptoms of Acute Mountain Sickness (AMS). The signs and symptoms of AMS (headache plus nausea, dizziness, fatigue, or sleeplessness), could impact crew health and performance on lunar surface missions. Methods: An exhaustive literature review on the topic of the physiological effects of reduced ppO2 and absolute pressure as may contribute to the development of hypoxia and altitude symptoms or AMS. The results of the nine most rigorous studies were collated, analyzed and contents on the physiological concerns associated with hypobaric operations, AMS and hypoxia symptoms summarized. Results: Although space vehicles have operated in hypobaric conditions previously, they have not operated in a mildly hypoxic ppO2. There is evidence for an absolute pressure effect per se on AMS, such that the higher the altitude for a given hypoxic alveolar O2 partial pressure (P(sub A)O2), the greater the likelihood of an AMS response. About 25% of adults are likely to experience mild AMS near 2,000 m (xxx mmHg) altitude following a rapid ascent from sea level while breathing air (6,500 feet, acute (P(sub A)O2) = 75 mmHg). The operational experience with the Shuttle staged denitrogenation protocol at 528 mmHg (3,048 m) while breathing 26.5% O2 (acute (P(sub A)O2) = 85 mmHg) in astronauts adapting to microgravity suggests a similar likely experience in the proposed CEV environment. Conclusions: We feel that the slightly elevated risk of AMS with the recommended exploration atmospheric parameters is offset by the DCS risk reduction and improved operational efficiency offered by the hypobaric lunar surface vehicular pressure. We believe the risk of mild AMS is greater given a (P(sub A)O2) of 77 mmHg at 4,876 m altitude while breathing 32% O2 than at 1,828 m altitude while breathing 21% O2. Only susceptible astronauts would develop mild and transient AMS with prolonged exposure to 414 mmHg (4,876 m) while breathing 32% O2 (acute (P(sub A)O2) = 77 mmHg). So the following may be employed for operational risk reduction: 1) develop procedures to increase P(sub B) as needed in the CEV, and use a gradual or staged reduction in cabin pressure during lunar outbound; 2) train crews for symptoms of hypoxia, to allow early recognition and consider pre-adaptation of crews to a hypoxic environment prior to launch, 3) consider prophylactic acetazolamide for acute pressure changes and be prepared to treat any AMS associated symptoms early with both carbonic anhydrase inhibitors and supplemental oxygen.

Scheuring, Richard A.↗

Fission Surface Power System Initial Concept Definition

Under the NASA Exploration Technology Development Program (ETDP) and in partnership with the Department of Energy (DOE), NASA has embarked on a project to develop Fission Surface Power (FSP) technology. The primary goals of the project are to 1) develop FSP concepts that meet expected surface power requirements at reasonable cost with added benefits over other options, 2) establish a hardwarebased technical foundation for FSP design concepts and reduce overall development risk, 3) reduce the cost uncertainties for FSP and establish greater credibility for flight system cost estimates, and 4) generate the key products to allow NASA decision-makers to consider FSP as a preferred option for flight development. The FSP project was initiated in 2006 as the Prometheus Program and the Jupiter Icy Moons Orbiter (JIMO) mission were phased-out. As a first step, NASA Headquarters commissioned the Affordable Fission Surface Power System Study to evaluate the potential for an affordable FSP development approach. With a cost-effective FSP strategy identified, the FSP team evaluated design options and selected a Preliminary Reference Concept to guide technology development. Since then, the FSP Preliminary Reference Concept has served as a point-of-departure for several NASA mission architecture studies examining the use of nuclear power and has provided the foundation for a series of "Pathfinder" hardware tests. The long-term technology goal is a Technology Demonstration Unit (TDU) integrated system test using full-scale components and a non-nuclear reactor simulator. The FSP team consists of Glenn Research Center (GRC), Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) and the DOE National Laboratories at Los Alamos (LANL), Idaho (INL), Oak Ridge (ORNL), and Sandia (SNL). The project is organized into two main elements: Concept Definition and Risk Reduction. Under Concept Definition, the team performs trade studies, develops analytical tools, and formulates system concepts. Under Risk Reduction the team develops hardware prototypes and conducts laboratory-based testing.

Source record↗

Robotic Lunar Lander Development Project Status

This slide presentation reviews the status of the development of a robotic lunar lander. The goal of the project is to perform engineering tests and risk reduction activities to support the development of a small lunar lander for lunar surface science. This includes: (1) risk reduction for the flight of the robotic lander, (i.e., testing and analyzing various phase of the project); (2) the incremental development for the design of the robotic lander, which is to demonstrate autonomous, controlled descent and landing on airless bodies, and design of thruster configuration for 1/6th of the gravity of earth; (3) cold gas test article in flight demonstration testing; (4) warm gas testing of the robotic lander design; (5) develop and test landing algorithms; (6) validate the algorithms through analysis and test; and (7) tests of the flight propulsion system.

Hammond, Monica↗

Application of Probabilistic Methods to Assess Risk Due to Resonance in the Design of J-2X Rocket Engine Turbine Blades

The LOX-Hydrogen J-2X Rocket Engine, which is proposed for use as an upper-stage engine for numerous earth-to-orbit and heavy lift launch vehicle architectures, is presently in the design phase and will move shortly to the initial development test phase. Analysis of the design has revealed numerous potential resonance issues with hardware in the turbomachinery turbine-side flow-path. The analysis of the fuel pump turbine blades requires particular care because resonant failure of the blades, which are rotating in excess of 30,000 revolutions/minutes (RPM), could be catastrophic for the engine and the entire launch vehicle. This paper describes a series of probabilistic analyses performed to assess the risk of failure of the turbine blades due to resonant vibration during past and present test series. Some significant results are that the probability of failure during a single complete engine hot-fire test is low (~1%) because of the small likelihood of resonance, but that the probability increases to around 30% for a more focused turbomachinery-only test because all speeds will be ramped through and there is a greater likelihood of dwelling at more speeds. These risk calculations have been invaluable for use by program management in deciding if risk-reduction methods such as dampers are necessary immediately or if the test can be performed before the risk-reduction hardware is ready.

Brown, Andrew M.↗

Space Launch System Accelerated Booster Development Cycle

With the retirement of the Space Shuttle, NASA is seeking to reinvigorate the national space program and recapture the public s interest in human space exploration by developing missions to the Moon, near-earth asteroids, Lagrange points, Mars, and beyond. The would-be successor to the Space Shuttle, NASA s Constellation Program, planned to take humans back to the Moon by 2020, but due to budgetary constraints was cancelled in 2010 in search of a more "affordable, sustainable, and realistic" concept2. Following a number of studies, the much anticipated Space Launch System (SLS) was unveiled in September of 2011. The SLS core architecture consists of a cryogenic first stage with five Space Shuttle Main Engines (SSMEs), and a cryogenic second stage using a new J-2X engine3. The baseline configuration employs two 5-segment solid rocket boosters to achieve a 70 metric ton payload capability, but a new, more capable booster system will be required to attain the goal of 130 metric tons to orbit. To this end, NASA s Marshall Space Flight Center recently released a NASA Research Announcement (NRA) entitled "Space Launch System (SLS) Advanced Booster Engineering Demonstration and/or Risk Reduction." The increased emphasis on affordability is evident in the language used in the NRA, which is focused on risk reduction "leading to an affordable Advanced Booster that meets the evolved capabilities of SLS" and "enabling competition" to "enhance SLS affordability. The purpose of the work presented in this paper is to perform an independent assessment of the elements that make up an affordable and realistic path forward for the SLS booster system, utilizing advanced design methods and technology evaluation techniques. The goal is to identify elements that will enable a more sustainable development program by exploring the trade space of heavy lift booster systems and focusing on affordability, operability, and reliability at the system and subsystem levels5. For this study, affordability is defined as lifecycle cost, which includes design, development, test, and engineering (DDT&E), production and operational costs (P&O). For this study, the system objectives include reducing DDT&E schedule by a factor of three, showing 99.9% reliability, flying up to four times per year, serving both crew and cargo missions, and evolving to a lift capability of 130 metric tons.3 After identifying gaps in the current system s capabilities, this study seeks to identify non-traditional and innovative technologies and processes that may improve performance in these areas and assess their impacts on booster system development. The DDT&E phase may be improved by incorporating incremental development testing and integrated demonstrations to mitigate risk. To further reduce DDT&E, this study will also consider how aspects of the booster system may have commonality with other users, such as the Department of Defense, commercial applications, or international partners; by sharing some of the risk and investment, the overall development cost may be reduced. Consideration is not limited to solid and liquid rocket boosters. A set of functional performance characteristics, such as engine thrust, specific impulse (Isp), mixture ratio, and throttle range are identified and their impacts on the system are evaluated. This study also identifies how such characteristics affect overall life cycle cost, including DDT&E and fixed and variable P&O.

Arockiam, Nicole↗

NASA's International Lunar Network Anchor Nodes and Robotic Lunar Lander Project Update

NASA Marshall Space Flight Center and The Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory have been conducting mission studies and performing risk reduction activities for NASA's robotic lunar lander flight projects. Additional mission studies have been conducted to support other objectives of the lunar science and exploration community and extensive risk reduction design and testing has been performed to advance the design of the lander system and reduce development risk for flight projects.

Cohen, Barbara A.↗

Recovery of Space Shuttle Columbia and Return to Flight of Space Shuttle Discovery

NASA has come a long way in our journey to reduce the risks of operating the Spse Shuttle system. The External Tank bipod Thermal Protection System has been redesigned to eliminate the proximate cause of the Columbia accident. In all areas, we have applied the collective knowledge and capabilities of our Nation to comply with the Columbia Accident Investigation Board recommendations and to raise the bar beyond that. We have taken prudent technical action on potential threats to review and verify the material condition of all critical areas where failure could result in catastrophic loss of the crew and vehicle. We are satisfied that critical systems and elements should operate as intended-safely and reliably. While we will never eliminate all the risks from our human space flight programs, we have eliminated those we can and reduced, controlled, and/or mitigated others. The remaining identified risks will be evaluated for acceptance. Our risk reduction approach has its roots in the system safety engineering hierarchy for hazard abatement long employed in aerospace systems engineering. The components of the hierarchy are, in order of precedence, to: design/redesign; eliminate the hazard/risk; reduce the hazard/risk; and control the hazard/risk and/or mitigate the consequence of the remaining hazard/risk through warning devices, special procedures/capabilities, and/or training. This proven approach to risk reduction has been applied to potential hazards and risks in all critical areas of the Space Shuttle and has guided us through the technical challenges, failures, and successes present in return to flight endeavors. This approach provides the structured deliberation process required to verify and form the foundation for accepting any residual risk across the entire Space Shuttle Program by NASA leadership.

Rudolphi, Michael U.↗

Adaptive Independent Verification and Validation (IV&V) Reduces Risk of Software Impacting Safety in Artemis Missions

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is asking more of its human spaceflight programs than ever before through the collective Artemis Missions. The NASA Independent Verification and Validation (IV&V) Program contributes to NASA’s human spaceflight goals by providing IV&V services for NASA’s critical spacecraft and ground software. The IV&V Program is tasked with providing assurance from both individual and integrated mission software perspectives. The Artemis IV&V organization is actively supporting six distinct development efforts: Orion, the Space Launch System (SLS), Exploration Ground Systems (EGS), Mission Control Center (MCC), the Lunar Gateway, and the Human Landing System (HLS), representing a wide diversity of developer organizations, management structures, and development approaches. With much of this extremely complex flight and ground software being essential to human safety both on the ground and in space, Artemis IV&V is likewise challenged to provide more value-added assurance to future Artemis missions within a constrained budget. To meet this challenge, Artemis IV&V employs a variety of novel and evolving “Adaptive IV&V” approaches for planning and executing IV&V analysis to increase both the efficiency and effectiveness of the IV&V Program’s assurance activities, and to address the difficulties imposed by assuring software for a large, highly integrated, multi-mission enterprise managed and executed by physically and organizationally distinct programs. Instilling agile principles like iterative planning cycles, self-organizing teams, and regular retrospectives, into IV&V planning and execution has led to a more rapid turnaround of a minimum viable assurance product and allowed for increased alignment of assurance activities with development progress. Adopting an assurance case methodology has led to greater consistency and clearer communication of assurance design and provided a foundation for long-term maintenance of assurance plans, products, and results across missions. The IV&V-developed Assurance / Safety Case Analytical Network (A-SCAN) framework and tool has enabled the quantification and tracking of system/software risk and confidence. These confidence measures provide a means to repeatedly express the impact of planned and completed assurance work and the remaining residual risk. Applied as part of a “Follow-the-Risk” organizational ethos, this allows consistent rightsizing of analysis rigor and intensity commensurate with the perceived risk of defects, as well as appropriate targeting of the highest risk areas of the software to find safety issues before they can manifest. Finally, the development of the IV&V Advanced Risk Reduction Integrated Software Test and Operations Tri-program Lightweight Environment (ARRISTOTLE), an integrated software-only simulation of Orion, SLS, and EGS systems, has made it possible to independently test integrated pad and flight scenarios and inject faults to observe how the Artemis multi-program, mission software behaves in degraded modes and in response to hazards. These adaptive IV&V investments have enabled Artemis IV&V to become more efficient and effective in IV&V planning and execution and respond more readily to changes in the risk landscape, increasing the breadth and depth of risk reduction possible within the available resources. Residual risk tracking allows IV&V to communicate more effectively with stakeholders, both internal and external at all levels, and inform key decision-making personnel. This evolving assurance design approach provides IV&V surety that work is performed in the highest risk, most value-added areas of the software, to keep our astronauts and ground crews safe and ensure mission success.

Gerek A Whitman↗

Adaptive Independent Verification and Validation (IV&V) Reduces Risk of Software Impacting Safety in Artemis Missions

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is asking more of its human spaceflight programs than ever before through the collective Artemis Missions. The NASA Independent Verification and Validation (IV&V) Program contributes to NASA’s human spaceflight goals by providing IV&V services for NASA’s critical spacecraft and ground software. The IV&V Program is tasked with providing assurance from both individual and integrated mission software perspectives. The Artemis IV&V organization is actively supporting six distinct development efforts: Orion, the Space Launch System (SLS), Exploration Ground Systems (EGS), Mission Control Center (MCC), the Lunar Gateway, and the Human Landing System (HLS), representing a wide diversity of developer organizations, management structures, and development approaches. With much of this extremely complex flight and ground software being essential to human safety both on the ground and in space, Artemis IV&V is likewise challenged to provide more value-added assurance to future Artemis missions within a constrained budget. To meet this challenge, Artemis IV&V employs a variety of novel and evolving “Adaptive IV&V” approaches for planning and executing IV&V analysis to increase both the efficiency and effectiveness of the IV&V Program’s assurance activities, and to address the difficulties imposed by assuring software for a large, highly integrated, multi-mission enterprise managed and executed by physically and organizationally distinct programs. Instilling agile principles like iterative planning cycles, self-organizing teams, and regular retrospectives, into IV&V planning and execution has led to a more rapid turnaround of a minimum viable assurance product and allowed for increased alignment of assurance activities with development progress. Adopting an assurance case methodology has led to greater consistency and clearer communication of assurance design and provided a foundation for long-term maintenance of assurance plans, products, and results across missions. The IV&V-developed Assurance / Safety Case Analytical Network (A-SCAN) framework and tool has enabled the quantification and tracking of system/software risk and confidence. These confidence measures provide a means to repeatedly express the impact of planned and completed assurance work and the remaining residual risk. Applied as part of a “Follow-the-Risk” organizational ethos, this allows consistent rightsizing of analysis rigor and intensity commensurate with the perceived risk of defects, as well as appropriate targeting of the highest risk areas of the software to find safety issues before they can manifest. Finally, the development of the IV&V Advanced Risk Reduction Integrated Software Test and Operations Tri-program Lightweight Environment (ARRISTOTLE), an integrated software-only simulation of Orion, SLS, and EGS systems, has made it possible to independently test integrated pad and flight scenarios and inject faults to observe how the Artemis multi-program, mission software behaves in degraded modes and in response to hazards. These adaptive IV&V investments have enabled Artemis IV&V to become more efficient and effective in IV&V planning and execution and respond more readily to changes in the risk landscape, increasing the breadth and depth of risk reduction possible within the available resources. Residual risk tracking allows IV&V to communicate more effectively with stakeholders, both internal and external at all levels, and inform key decision-making personnel. This evolving assurance design approach provides IV&V surety that work is performed in the highest risk, most value-added areas of the software, to keep our astronauts and ground crews safe and ensure mission success.

Gerek Whitman↗

Risk-Based Prioritization of Research for Aviation Security Using Logic-Evolved Decision Analysis

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration is developing advanced technologies to reduce terrorist risk for the air transportation system. Decision support tools are needed to help allocate assets to the most promising research. An approach to rank ordering technologies (using logic-evolved decision analysis), with risk reduction as the metric, is presented. The development of a spanning set of scenarios using a logic-gate tree is described. Baseline risk for these scenarios is evaluated with an approximate reasoning model. Illustrative risk and risk reduction results are presented.

Eisenhawer, S. W.↗

NASA's Space Launch System Advanced Booster Development

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA's) Space Launch System (SLS) Program, managed at the Marshall Space Flight Center, is making progress toward delivering a new capability for human space flight and scientific missions beyond Earth orbit. NASA is executing this development within flat budgetary guidelines by using existing engines assets and heritage technology to ready an initial 70 metric ton (t) lift capability for launch in 2017, and then employing a block upgrade approach to evolve a 130-t capability after 2021. A key component of the SLS acquisition plan is a three-phased approach for the first-stage boosters. The first phase is to expedite the 70-t configuration by completing development of the Space Shuttle heritage 5-segment solid rocket boosters (SRBs) for the initial flights of SLS. Since no existing boosters can meet the performance requirements for the 130-t class SLS, the next phases of the strategy focus on the eventual development of advanced boosters with an expected thrust class potentially double the current 5-segment solid rocket booster capability of 3.88 million pounds of thrust each. The second phase in the booster acquisition plan is the Advanced Booster Engineering Demonstration and/or Risk Reduction (ABEDRR) effort, for which contracts were awarded beginning in 2012 after a full and open competition, with a stated intent to reduce risks leading to an affordable advanced booster. NASA has awarded ABEDRR contracts to four industry teams, which are looking into new options for liquid-fuel booster engines, solid-fuel-motor propellants, and composite booster structures. Demonstrations and/or risk reduction efforts were required to be related to a proposed booster concept directly applicable to fielding an advanced booster. This paper will discuss the status of this acquisition strategy and its results toward readying both the 70 t and 130 t configurations of SLS. The third and final phase will be a full and open competition for Design, Development, Test, and Evaluation (DDT&E) of the advanced boosters. These new boosters will enable the flexible path approach to deep space exploration, opening up vast opportunities for human missions to near-Earth asteroids and Mars. This evolved capability will offer large volume for science missions and payloads, will be modular and flexible, and will be right-sized for mission requirements.

Robinson, Kimberly F.↗

The NASA Juncture Flow Experiment: Goals, Progress, and Preliminary Testing (Invited)

NASA has been working toward designing and conducting a juncture flow experiment on a wing-body aircraft configuration. The experiment is planned to provide validation-quality data for CFD that focuses on the onset and progression of a separation bubble near the wing-body juncture trailing edge region. This paper describes the goals and purpose of the experiment. Although currently considered unreliable, preliminary CFD analyses of several different configurations are shown. These configurations have been subsequently tested in a series of "risk-reduction" wind tunnel tests, in order to help down-select to a final configuration that will attain the desired flow behavior. The risk-reduction testing at the higher Reynolds number has not yet been completed (at the time of this writing), but some results from one of the low-Reynolds-number experiments are shown.

Rumsey, Christopher L.↗