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NASA NTRS2023

Aqua MODIS: 20 Years of On-orbit Calibration and Performance

Since its launch in May 2002, Aqua MODIS has successfully operated for more than 20 years and has continuously generated a wide range of data products that have enabled and supported the remote sensing community and users worldwide for their studies of the Earth’s system by monitoring changes in its key environmental parameters. Although Aqua MODIS, designed with a lifetime requirement of 6 years, is currently operated in its extended mission phase, it continues to make high quality global observations of the Earth’s surface via its 36 spectral bands that cover wavelengths from visible to long-wave infrared. To date, all instrument on-board calibrators (OBC) remain capable of performing their design functions, providing various calibration data sets to help monitor on-orbit changes in sensor responses and performance characteristics. In addition to the OBC, regularly scheduled lunar observations and select Earth-view targets are used extensively to support sensor on-orbit calibration, especially for the calibration of the visible channels (or bands). In this paper, we provide an overview of Aqua MODIS on-orbit calibration activities and methodologies for both reflective solar bands (RSB) and thermal emissive bands (TEB), illustrate its on-orbit performance over the past 20 years using examples derived from OBC measurements, lunar observations, and Earth-view response trends, and describe various calibration improvements made over its entire mission. We focus on key issues identified since launch, such as solar diffuser degradation, electronic crosstalk, and on-orbit changes in sensor response versus scan-angle, along with approaches and strategies developed to mitigate their impact on sensor calibration quality. Also discussed in this paper are some of the key calibration enhancements incorporated recently in the Collection 6.1 and the upcoming Collection 7 Level-1B algorithms.

Polarization↗

NASA NTRS2006

Flight Test of an Adaptive Controller and Simulated Failure/Damage on the NASA NF-15B

The method of flight-testing the Intelligent Flight Control System (IFCS) Second Generation (Gen-2) project on the NASA NF-15B is herein described. The Gen-2 project objective includes flight-testing a dynamic inversion controller augmented by a direct adaptive neural network to demonstrate performance improvements in the presence of simulated failure/damage. The Gen-2 objectives as implemented on the NASA NF-15B created challenges for software design, structural loading limitations, and flight test operations. Simulated failure/damage is introduced by modifying control surface commands, therefore requiring structural loads measurements. Flight-testing began with the validation of a structural loads model. Flight-testing of the Gen-2 controller continued, using test maneuvers designed in a sequenced approach. Success would clear the new controller with respect to dynamic response, simulated failure/damage, and with adaptation on and off. A handling qualities evaluation was conducted on the capability of the Gen-2 controller to restore aircraft response in the presence of a simulated failure/damage. Control room monitoring of loads sensors, flight dynamics, and controller adaptation, in addition to postflight data comparison to the simulation, ensured a safe methodology of buildup testing. Flight-testing continued without major incident to accomplish the project objectives, successfully uncovering strengths and weaknesses of the Gen-2 control approach in flight.

Buschbacher, Mark↗

NASA NTRS2007

Nonlinear Structural Analysis Methodology and Dynamics Scaling of Inflatable Parabolic Reflector Antenna Concepts

Ultra-light weight and ultra-thin membrane inflatable antenna concepts are fast evolving to become the state-of-the-art antenna concepts for deep-space applications. NASA Langley Research Center has been involved in the structural dynamics research on antenna structures. One of the goals of the research is to develop structural analysis methodology for prediction of the static and dynamic response characteristics of the inflatable antenna concepts. This research is focused on the computational studies to use nonlinear large deformation finite element analysis to characterize the ultra-thin membrane responses of the antennas. Recently, structural analyses have been performed on a few parabolic reflector antennas of varying size and shape, which are referred in the paper as 0.3 meters subscale, 2 meters half-scale, and 4 meters full-scale antenna. The various aspects studied included nonlinear analysis methodology and solution techniques, ways to speed convergence in iterative methods, the sensitivities of responses with respect to structural loads, such as inflation pressure, gravity, and pretension loads in the ground and in-space conditions, and the ultra-thin membrane wrinkling characteristics. Several such intrinsic aspects studied have provided valuable insight into evaluation of structural characteristics of such antennas. While analyzing these structural characteristics, a quick study was also made to assess the applicability of dynamics scaling of the half-scale antenna. This paper presents the details of the nonlinear structural analysis results, and discusses the insight gained from the studies on the various intrinsic aspects of the analysis methodology. The predicted reflector surface characteristics of the three inflatable ultra-thin membrane parabolic reflector antenna concepts are presented as easily observable displacement fringe patterns with associated maximum values, and normal mode shapes and associated frequencies. Wrinkling patterns are presented to show how surface wrinkle progress with increasing tension loads. Antenna reflector surface accuracies were found to be very much dependent on the type and size of the antenna, the reflector surface curvature, reflector membrane supports in terms of spacing of catenaries, as well as the amount of applied load.

Sreekantamurthy, Tham↗

NASA NTRS2011

Development of the Orion Crew Module Static Aerodynamic Database: Hypersonic - Part 1

The Orion aerodynamic database provides force and moment coefficients given the velocity, attitude, configuration, etc. of the Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV). The database is developed and maintained by the NASA CEV Aerosciences Project team from computational and experimental aerodynamic simulations. The database is used primarily by the Guidance, Navigation, and Control (GNC) team to design vehicle trajectories and assess flight performance. The initial hypersonic re-entry portion of the Crew Module (CM) database was developed in 2006. Updates incorporating additional data and improvements to the database formulation and uncertainty methodologies have been made since then. This paper details the process used to develop the CM database, including nominal values and uncertainties, for Mach numbers greater than 8 and angles of attack between 140deg and 180deg. The primary available data are more than 1000 viscous, reacting gas chemistry computational simulations using both the Laura and Dplr codes, over a range of Mach numbers from 2 to 37 and a range of angles of attack from 147deg to 172deg. Uncertainties were based on grid convergence, laminar-turbulent solution variations, combined altitude and code-to-code variations, and expected heatshield asymmetry. A radial basis function response surface tool, NEAR-RS, was used to fit the coefficient data smoothly in a velocity-angle-of-attack space. The resulting database is presented and includes some data comparisons and a discussion of the predicted variation of trim angle of attack and lift-to-drag ratio. The database provides a variation in trim angle of attack on the order of +/-2deg, and a range in lift-to-drag ratio of +/-0.035 for typical vehicle flight conditions.

Bibb, Karen L.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Microbial Monitoring of Pathogens by Comparing Multiple Real-Time PCR Platforms for Potential Space Applications

The International Space Station (ISS) is a closed environment wi~h rotations of crew and equipment each introducing their own microbial flora making it necessary to monitor the air, surfaces, and water for microbial contamination. Current microbial monitoring includes labor and time intensive methods to enumerate total bacterial and fungal cells with limited characterization during in-flight testing. Although this culture-based method has been sufficient for monitoring the ISS, future long duration missions will need to perform more comprehensive characterization in-flight, since sample return and ground characterization may not be available. A workshop was held in 2011 at the Johnson Space Center to discuss alternative methodologies and technologies suitable for microbial monitoring for these longterm exploration missions where molecular-based methodologies, such as polymerase chain reaction (PCR), were recommended. In response, a multi-center (Marshall Space Flight Center, Johnson Space Center, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, and Kennedy Space Center) collaborative research effort was initiated to explore novel commercial-off-the-shelf hardware options for spaceflight environmental monitoring. The goal was to evaluate quantitative/semi-quantitative PCR approaches to space applications for low cost in-flight rapid identification of microorganisms affecting crew safety. The initial phase of this project identified commercially available platforms that could be minimally modified to perform nominally in microgravity followed by proof-of-concept testing on the highest qualifying candidates with a universally available test organism, Salmonella enterica. The platforms evaluated during proof-of-concept testing included the iCubate 2.0(TradeMark) (iCubate, Huntsville, AL), RAZOR EX (BioFire Diagnostics; Salt Lake City, Utah) and SmartCycler(TradeMark) (Cepheid; Sunnyvale, CA). The analysis identified two potential technologies (iCubate 2.0 and RAZOR EX) that were able to perform sample-to-answer testing with cell sample concentrations between SO to 400 cells. In addition, the commercial systems were evaluated for initial flight safety and readiness, sample concentration needs were reviewed, and a competitive procurement of commercially available platforms was initiated.

Birmele, Michele↗

NASA NTRS2005

Computational Materials Program for Alloy Design

The research program sponsored by this grant, "Computational Materials Program for Alloy Design", covers a period of time of enormous change in the emerging field of computational materials science. The computational materials program started with the development of the BFS method for alloys, a quantum approximate method for atomistic analysis of alloys specifically tailored to effectively deal with the current challenges in the area of atomistic modeling and to support modern experimental programs. During the grant period, the program benefited from steady growth which, as detailed below, far exceeds its original set of goals and objectives. Not surprisingly, by the end of this grant, the methodology and the computational materials program became an established force in the materials communitiy, with substantial impact in several areas. Major achievements during the duration of the grant include the completion of a Level 1 Milestone for the HITEMP program at NASA Glenn, consisting of the planning, development and organization of an international conference held at the Ohio Aerospace Institute in August of 2002, finalizing a period of rapid insertion of the methodology in the research community worlwide. The conference, attended by citizens of 17 countries representing various fields of the research community, resulted in a special issue of the leading journal in the area of applied surface science. Another element of the Level 1 Milestone was the presentation of the first version of the Alloy Design Workbench software package, currently known as "adwTools". This software package constitutes the first PC-based piece of software for atomistic simulations for both solid alloys and surfaces in the market.Dissemination of results and insertion in the materials community worldwide was a primary focus during this period. As a result, the P.I. was responsible for presenting 37 contributed talks, 19 invited talks, and publishing 71 articles in peer-reviewed journals, as detailed later in this Report.

Bozzolo, Guillermo↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

MISR Level 1B1 Local Mode Radiance Data (MIB1LM_V2)

The results of two types of processing are included in this product. First, the Radiance Scaling operation converts the camera's digital number output to a measure of energy incident on the front optical surface. The measurement is expressed in units called radiance (energy per unit area, wavelength, and solid angle) as defined by the International Standard (SI). Second, Radiance Conditioning modifies the radiances to remove instrument-dependent effects. Specifically, image sharpening is applied, and focal-plane scattering is removed. Additionally, all radiances are adjusted to remove slight spectral sensitivity differences among the 1504 detector elements of each spectral band and each camera. In addition to the Level 1B1 radiometric product for MISR's Global Mode imagery, there is a separate Level 1B1 product for each high-resolution Local Mode scene. The Radiometric Product contains spectral radiances for all MISR channels (four spectral bands and nine cameras). Each radiance value represents the incident radiance averaged over the sensor's total band response. Processing includes both radiance scaling and conditioning steps. Radiance scaling converts the Level 1A data from digital counts to radiances using coefficients derived in combination with the On-Board Calibrator (OBC) and vicarious calibrations. The OBC contains Spectralon calibration panels which are deployed monthly and reflect sunlight into the cameras. The OBC detector standards then measure this reflected light to provide the calibration. Vicarious field campaigns are conducted less frequently but provide an independent methodology useful for reducing systematic errors. Radiance conditioning removes undesirable instrument effects. Image enhancement is provided by deconvolving the scene with the sensor's point-spread-function. Additionally, in-band scaling adjusts the reported radiances to correspond to a nominal band response profile. This frees the Level 2 software from the need to correct for detector element non-uniformities. No out-of-band correction is done for this product, nor are the data geometrically corrected or resampled at this point. In summary, the Level 1B1 Product contains the Data Numbers (DNs) radiometrically-scaled to radiances with no geometric resampling. [Temporal_Coverage: Start_Date=2000-02-24; Stop_Date=] [Spatial_Coverage: Southernmost_Latitude=-90; Northernmost_Latitude=90; Westernmost_Longitude=-180; Easternmost_Longitude=180] [Data_Resolution: Latitude_Resolution=275 m for red band only; Longitude_Resolution=275 m for red band only; Temporal_Resolution=about 15 orbits/day].

AM-1↗

NASA NTRS2001

Reliability Analysis and Reliability-Based Design Optimization of Circular Composite Cylinders Under Axial Compression

This report describes the preliminary results of an investigation on component reliability analysis and reliability-based design optimization of thin-walled circular composite cylinders with average diameter and average length of 15 inches. Structural reliability is based on axial buckling strength of the cylinder. Both Monte Carlo simulation and First Order Reliability Method are considered for reliability analysis with the latter incorporated into the reliability-based structural optimization problem. To improve the efficiency of reliability sensitivity analysis and design optimization solution, the buckling strength of the cylinder is estimated using a second-order response surface model. The sensitivity of the reliability index with respect to the mean and standard deviation of each random variable is calculated and compared. The reliability index is found to be extremely sensitive to the applied load and elastic modulus of the material in the fiber direction. The cylinder diameter was found to have the third highest impact on the reliability index. Also the uncertainty in the applied load, captured by examining different values for its coefficient of variation, is found to have a large influence on cylinder reliability. The optimization problem for minimum weight is solved subject to a design constraint on element reliability index. The methodology, solution procedure and optimization results are included in this report.

Rais-Rohani, Masoud↗

NASA NTRS2009

An Overview of MODIS Calibration and Characterization and Lessons Learned

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) is a key instrument for NASA's EOS missions. Two nearly identical copies have flown on the Terra and Aqua spacecraft for more than 9 years and 6 years since their launch in December 1999 and May 2002, respectively. MODIS observations and associated data products have been widely used by the science community and users worldwide for studies of Earth's system of land, oceans, and atmosphere. MODIS was developed based on the desire of the science community to extend and enhance heritage sensors' data records. It was designed with enhancements made over its heritage sensors in terms of its spectral, spatial, and radiometric characteristics. It is a cross-track scanning radiometer, that uses a two-sided scan mirror, collecting data in 36 spectral bands covering spectral regions of visible (VIS), near-infrared (NIR), short-wave infrared (SWIR), mid-wave infrared (MWIR), and long-wave infrared (LWIR). The VIS, NIR, and SWIR bands (bands 1-19 and 26), which make measurements of daytime surface reflected radiances, are referred to as the reflective solar bands (RSB). The MWIR and LWIR bands (20-25 and 27-36), which measure both the daytime and nighttime scene emissive radiances, are thus referred to as the thermal emissive bands (TEB). In this paper, we provide an overview of MODIS instrument calibration and characterization methodologies, activities, and results from pre-launch to post launch, with emphasis on the lessons learned from its design to on-orbit operation. Currently, both instruments are operated normally and all the on-orbit calibration activities are performed on a regular basis with some at slightly reduced frequencies. The TEB responses have been extremely stable with less than 0.3% change per year. For the RSB, the changes are wavelength and scan angle dependent with the largest changes in the VIS spectral bands. As both Terra and Aqua MODIS continue to operate beyond their prime missions, constant effort is still needed to maintain instrument and calibration and data product quality. This paper shows that the lessons from Terra MODIS design, test, and operation, have greatly benefitted Aqua MODIS. Because of this, Aqua MODIS overall performance is better than Terra MODIS. It is not surprising that lessons from MODIS calibration and characterization, from methodologies to on-orbit implementation, have also provided valuable information for the design and development of future earth observing missions/sensors, such as VHRS on the NPP and NPOESS, ABI on GOES-R, OLI on LDCM, and the reflective solar sensor on CLARREO.

Xiong, Xiaxiong↗

NASA NTRS1981

Interactive multi-mode blade impact analysis

This paper describes the theoretical methodology used in developing an analysis for the response of turbine engine fan blades subjected to soft body (bird) impacts and the computer program that was developed using this methodology as its basis. This computer program is an outgrowth of two programs that were previously developed for the purpose of studying problems of a similar nature (a three-mode beam impact analysis and a multi-mode beam impact analysis). The present program utilizes an improved missile model that is interactively coupled with blade motion which is more consistent with actual observations. It takes into account local deformation at the impact area, blade camber effects, and the spreading of the impacted missile mass on the blade surface. In addition, it accommodates plate-type mode shapes. The analysis capability in this computer program represents a significant improvement in the development of the methodology for evaluating potential fan blade materials and designs with regard to foreign object impact resistance.

Alexander, A.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Interactive multi-mode blade impact analysis

The theoretical methodology used in developing an analysis for the response of turbine engine fan blades subjected to soft-body (bird) impacts is reported, and the computer program developed using this methodology as its basis is described. This computer program is an outgrowth of two programs that were previously developed for the purpose of studying problems of a similar nature (a 3-mode beam impact analysis and a multi-mode beam impact analysis). The present program utilizes an improved missile model that is interactively coupled with blade motion which is more consistent with actual observations. It takes into account local deformation at the impact area, blade camber effects, and the spreading of the impacted missile mass on the blade surface. In addition, it accommodates plate-type mode shapes. The analysis capability in this computer program represents a significant improvement in the development of the methodology for evaluating potential fan blade materials and designs with regard to foreign object impact resistance.

Alexander, A.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Recent Developments in the Use of Liquid Crystal Coatings for Full-Surface Shear Stress Vector Measurements

Under normal white-light illumination and oblique observation, liquid crystal coating (LCC) color-change response to shear depends on both shear stress magnitude as well as the direction of the applied shear relative to the observer's line of sight. These color-change responses were quantified by subjecting a LCC to a wall-jet shear flow and measuring scattered-light spectra using a fiber optic probe and spectrophotometer. At any fixed shear stress magnitude, the maximum color change was measured when the shear vector was aligned with and directed away from the observer; changes in the relative in-plane view angle to either side of this vector/observer aligned position resulted in symmetric Gaussian reductions in measured color change. For this vector/observer aligned orientation, color change was found to scale linearly with increasing shear stress magnitude over an eight-fold range. Based on these results, a surface shear stress vector measurement methodology, involving multiple oblique-view observations of the test surface, was formulated. In the present paper, the experimental approach and data analysis procedure required to extend this vector measurement methodology to full-surface applications will be outlined and progress towards demonstrating this areal capability will be reviewed.

Reda, D. C.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Microbial Monitoring of Common Opportunistic Pathogens by Comparing Multiple Real-Time PCR Platforms for Potential Space Applications

Because the International Space Station is a closed environment with rotations of astronauts and equipment that each introduce their own microbial flora, it is necessary to monitor the air, surfaces, and water for microbial contamination. Current microbial monitoring includes labor- and time-intensive methods to enumerate total bacterial and fungal cells, with limited characterization, during in-flight testing. Although this culture-based method is sufficient for monitoring the International Space Station, on future long-duration missions more detailed characterization will need to be performed during flight, as sample return and ground characterization may not be available. At a workshop held in 2011 at NASA's Johnson Space Center to discuss alternative methodologies and technologies suitable for microbial monitoring for these long-term exploration missions, molecular-based methodologies such as polymerase chain reaction (PCR) were recommended. In response, a multi-center (Marshall Space Flight Center, Johnson Space Center, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, and Kennedy Space Center) collaborative research effort was initiated to explore novel commercial-off-the-shelf hardware options for space flight environmental monitoring. The goal was to evaluate quantitative or semi-quantitative PCR approaches for low-cost in-flight rapid identification of microorganisms that could affect crew safety. The initial phase of this project identified commercially available platforms that could be minimally modified to perform nominally in microgravity. This phase was followed by proof-of-concept testing of the highest qualifying candidates with a universally available challenge organism, Salmonella enterica. The analysis identified two technologies that were able to perform sample-to-answer testing with initial cell sample concentrations between 50 and 400 cells. In addition, the commercial systems were evaluated for initial flight safety and readiness.

Real time↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Landsat 9 pre-launch sensor characterization and comparison with Landsat 8 results

Landsat 9 is planned for launch in December 2020 to continue the mission of observing changes on the Earth’s surface that began in 1972 with the launch of Landsat 1. Like Landsat 8, Landsat 9 will carry two imaging instruments: Operational Land Imager 2 (OLI-2), designed and built by Ball Aerospace, and Thermal Infrared Sensor 2 (TIRS-2), manufactured by NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). As of this writing, both sensors have completed the instrument-level ground testing and are ready for integration into the spacecraft. Data collected during the pre-launch performance testing are analyzed to assess the usability of responses of the video reference pixels (VRPs)located on the focal planes of OLI-2 and Landsat 8 OLI for more accurate detector bias estimates, develop a methodology to correct for nonlinearities in the OLI-2 response and compare it to the OLI correction approach, and determine the spatial performance of TIRS-2.

Esad Micijevic↗

NASA NTRS1997

Frictionless Contact of Multilayered Composite Half Planes Containing Layers With Complex Eigenvalues

A previously developed local-global stiffness matrix methodology for the response of a composite half plane, arbitrarily layered with isotropic, orthotropic or monoclinic plies, to indentation by a rigid parabolic punch is further extended to accommodate the presence of layers with complex eigenvalues (e.g., honeycomb or piezoelectric layers). First, a generalized plane deformation solution for the displacement field in an orthotropic layer or half plane characterized by complex eigenvalues is obtained using Fourier transforms. A local stiffness matrix in the transform domain is subsequently constructed for this class of layers and half planes, which is then assembled into a global stiffness matrix for the entire multilayered half plane by enforcing continuity conditions along the interfaces. Application of the mixed boundary condition on the top surface of the half plane indented by a rigid punch results in an integral equation for the unknown pressure in the contact region. The integral possesses a divergent kernel which is decomposed into Cauchy-type and regular parts using the asymptotic properties of the local stiffness matrix and a relationship between Fourier and finite Hilbert transform of the contact pressure. The solution of the resulting singular integral equation is obtained using a collocation technique based on the properties of orthogonal polynomials developed by Erdogan and Gupta. Examples are presented that illustrate the important influence of low transverse properties of layers with complex eigenvalues, such as those exhibited by honeycomb, on the load versus contact length response and contact pressure distributions for half planes containing typical composite materials.

Zhang, Wang↗

NASA NTRS1995

Numerical Methodology For Full-Body TPS Sizing And Optimization For Access-To-Space Vehicles

This paper presents details of the methodology and numerical procedures developed at NASA Ames for full-body TEXAS sizing and optimization for Access to Space vehicle concepts. The core of the procedures is a robust implicit solver for one dimensional transient heat conduction in reusable multilayer TEXAS stackups. The solver includes an arbitrary number of material layers, contact resistances between materials, temperature and pressure dependent material and surface properties, numerous boundary-condition options, and self-adaptive time stepping. The solver is coupled with the Access-to-Space material database of 23 candidate TPS and structural materials and a thermal-environment database obtained from trajectory-based fullbody Navier-Stokes computations of the external flowfield. The thermal environment and material response are coupled through the use of T-type heat transfer coefficients. TIPS sizing and weight optimization are performed at every surface point on the vehicle based on sizing constraints which include material temperature limits, maximum backwall temperature, and cumulative interior heat flux. Typical results are presented for a lifting body concept with 10000 surface points, which required 35 minutes to compute on an SGI Indigo 2.

Milos, Frank S.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Developing Optimized Trajectories Derived from Mission and Thermo-Structural Constraints

In conjunction with NASA and the Department of Defense, the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory (JHU/APL) has been investigating analytical techniques to address many of the fundamental issues associated with solar exploration spacecraft and high-speed atmospheric vehicle systems. These issues include: thermo-structural response including the effects of thermal management via the use of surface optical properties for high-temperature composite structures; aerodynamics with the effects of non-equilibrium chemistry and gas radiation; and aero-thermodynamics with the effects of material ablation for a wide range of thermal protection system (TPS) materials. The need exists to integrate these discrete tools into a common framework that enables the investigation of interdisciplinary interactions (including analysis tool, applied load, and environment uncertainties) to provide high fidelity solutions. In addition to developing robust tools for the coupling of aerodynamically induced thermal and mechanical loads, JHU/APL has been studying the optimal design of high-speed vehicles as a function of their trajectory. Under traditional design methodology the optimization of system level mission parameters such as range and time of flight is performed independently of the optimization for thermal and mechanical constraints such as stress and temperature. A truly optimal trajectory should optimize over the entire range of mission and thermo-mechanical constraints. Under this research, a framework for the robust analysis of high-speed spacecraft and atmospheric vehicle systems has been developed. It has been built around a generic, loosely coupled framework such that a variety of readily available analysis tools can be used. The methodology immediately addresses many of the current analysis inadequacies and allows for future extension in order to handle more complex problems.

Lear, Matthew H.↗

NASA NTRS2014

NMME Monthly / Seasonal Forecasts for NASA SERVIR Applications Science

This work details use of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) experimental forecasts as drivers for Decision Support Systems (DSSs) in the NASA / USAID initiative, SERVIR (a Spanish acronym meaning "to serve"). SERVIR integrates satellite observations, ground-based data and forecast models to monitor and forecast environmental changes and to improve response to natural disasters. Through the use of DSSs whose "front ends" are physically based models, the SERVIR activity provides a natural testbed to determine the extent to which NMME monthly to seasonal projections enable scientists, educators, project managers and policy implementers in developing countries to better use probabilistic outlooks of seasonal hydrologic anomalies in assessing agricultural / food security impacts, water availability, and risk to societal infrastructure. The multi-model NMME framework provides a "best practices" approach to probabilistic forecasting. The NMME forecasts are generated at resolution more coarse than that required to support DSS models; downscaling in both space and time is necessary. The methodology adopted here applied model output statistics where we use NMME ensemble monthly projections of sea-surface temperature (SST) and precipitation from 30 years of hindcasts with observations of precipitation and temperature for target regions. Since raw model forecasts are well-known to have structural biases, a cross-validated multivariate regression methodology (CCA) is used to link the model projected states as predictors to the predictands of the target region. The target regions include a number of basins in East and South Africa as well as the Ganges / Baramaputra / Meghna basin complex. The MOS approach used address spatial downscaling. Temporal disaggregation of monthly seasonal forecasts is achieved through use of a tercile bootstrapping approach. We interpret the results of these studies, the levels of skill by several metrics, and key uncertainties.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗