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CCUS 2024, Interpreting the strain tensor Larry Murdoch Interpreting strain tensor data to characterize and monitor reservoirs for CO2 storage and other applications

Recent advances in instrumentation have made it feasible to measure the transient strain tensor caused by small changes in fluid volume or pressure in the subsurface and this has opened the door to new opportunities for characterization and monitoring during CCUS. We have demonstrated this method by deploying strainmeters at shallow depths (30 to 40m) and then conducting injection well tests in an underlying reservoir at 530m depth. The resulting data indicated that the horizontal strain at shallow strainmeters was tensile and the vertical strain was compressive. The radial strain was less than the horizontal strain, and the strain rates decreased from 100 nanostrain/day to roughly 10 ne/d over a few days (1 nanostrain = 1 part per billion strain). We then used the strain data to estimate reservoir properties, geometry and pressure through inversion of poroelastic forward models using both numerical and novel analytical methods. The average horizontal strain in the caprock resembles the transient pressure in the underlying reservoir and classic type-curve methods from transient well testing can be used for preliminary interpretations of strain data. We have developed fast, closed-form analytical solutions to a pressurized poroelastic inclusion and inhomogeneity in a half-space. Numerical models developed using finite element methods allow more details of the subsurface to be included in the inversion, but they require much longer run times and this makes inversion cumbersome using standard methods. We have developed an inversion approach that uses a proxy model created using machine learning to do most of the forward calculations. This approach markedly reduces the computational requirements and makes it feasible to use Bayesian inversion with large numerical models. Bayesian inversion is important because it provides predictions with uncertainties, which makes the results useful for decision making. We have shown with field tests and simulations that the strain tensor in the caprock is sensitive to pressure in the reservoir, reservoir properties and boundaries, and pressure in the caprock caused by leaks. These results indicate that measuring and interpreting the shallow strain tensor could be a valuable tool for both initial reservoir characterization efforts and long-term monitoring during CCUS. Recent advances in instrumentation have made it feasible to measure the transient strain tensor caused by small changes in fluid volume or pressure in the subsurface and our objective was to evaluate opportunities for strain monitoring during characterization and monitoring for CCUS. Our approach was to deploy strainmeters at shallow depths (30 to 40m) and then conduct injection well tests in an underlying reservoir at 530m depth. The results indicate that the horizontal strain at shallow strainmeters was tensile and the vertical strain was compressive. The radial strain was less than the horizontal strain, and the strain rates decreased from 100 nanostrain/day to roughly 10 ne/d over a few days (1 nanostrain = 1 part per billion strain). We then used the strain data to estimate reservoir properties, geometry and pressure through inversion of poroelastic forward models using both numerical and novel analytical methods. The average horizontal strain in the caprock resembles the transient pressure in the underlying reservoir and classic type-curve methods from transient well testing can be used for preliminary interpretations of strain data. We have developed fast, closed-form analytical solutions to a pressurized poroelastic inclusion and inhomogeneity in a half-space. Numerical models developed using finite element methods allow more details of the subsurface to be included in the inversion, but they require much longer run times and this makes inversion cumbersome using standard methods. We have developed an inversion approach that uses a proxy model created using machine learning to do most of the forward calculations. This approach markedly reduces the computational requirements and makes it feasible to use Bayesian inversion with large numerical models. Bayesian inversion is important because it provides predictions with uncertainties, which makes the results useful for decision making. In conclusion, we have shown with field tests and simulations that the strain tensor in the caprock is sensitive to pressure in the reservoir, reservoir properties and boundaries, and pressure in the caprock caused by leaks. These results indicate that measuring and interpreting the shallow strain tensor could be a valuable tool for both initial reservoir characterization efforts and long-term monitoring during CCUS.

Murdoch, Larry↗

COMPUTATION FLUID DYNAMICS ANALYSIS FOR GENERIC SMALL MODULAR REACTOR CONTAINMENT SEPARATE EFFECTS TEST

It is desirable for fourth-generation Small Modular Reactors to be passively cooled in standard and accident operations. Passive Containment Cooling Systems can reject heat from the containment structure, without using pumps or blowers. The targeted design containment structure is a large, domed, stainless steel, cylindrical vessel. In a postulated Design Basis Accident, steam will flash inside containment. Steam condensation occurs on the inner containment wall and transfers heat through the steel containment into a large body of water known as the annular reservoir (AR) surrounding the vessel serving as the ultimate heat sink. Natural circulation drives the flow in the AR and heat will be released to the environment by evaporation of water. Unique containment geometry requires a separate effects test (SET) facility for the verification and validation of the computer code and evaluation model development and assessment for reactor licensing efforts. In this study, STAR-CCM+, a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code was used to inform the decision-making process on the design of the SET. The CFD simulation modeled, a two-phase turbulent flow with fluid film development and heat transfer for different containment geometries. The Reactor Excursion and Leak Analysis Program will also be used in a code-to-code verification against the CFD results.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN↗

Proxy-based Bayesian inversion of strain tensor data measured during well tests

Recent instrument developments have made it possible to measure the strain tensor caused by injecting or pumping fluid from aquifers or reservoirs, but the full value of these data is limited because the long runtimes of poroelastic forward models makes it impractical to use many inversion schemes. This limits the interpretation of strain data for managing the recovery of resources or storage of wastes in the subsurface. This paper describes a method of inverting deformation data using a poroelastic numerical simulator so the results can be used to manage reservoirs or aquifers. We developed a workflow designed to reduce the number of simulations sufficiently to make it feasible to use DREAMzs, an advanced Bayesian inversion method that translates the uncertainties from different sources into unbiased posterior parameter distributions and uncertainty envelopes around the field data. Using a KNN proxy model for the poroelastic simulator is key to reducing the overall computations, and the workflow includes a strategy for ensuring the proxy model results converge on the results from the simulator. The workflow is tested using an idealized example that verifies the ability to correctly identify parameters and characterize noise used to perturb the data. Field data from an injection test at an oil reservoir near Tulsa, Oklahoma, are also used to evaluate the efficacy of the workflow with a real dataset. The workflow identified 265 history matching solutions out of 1240 total simulation runs (21% acceptance ratio), where the results were used to characterize posterior parameter distribution and evaluate the prediction uncertainty. Furthermore, this workflow is significant because it enables strain tensor, or other geomechanical measurements to be interpreted to guide decision-making during energy and environmental processes in the subsurface.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Seawater Acidification and Bubble Plume Dispersion from Accidental Subsea CO 2 Pipeline Rupture: A Multiphase CFD Study

If a CO 2 reservoir or transmission pipeline were to leak, both the surrounding ecology and maritime traffic safety could be put at risk. To better understand and prepare for this risk, multiphase Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) models were built in ANSYS Fluent to capture the behavior of a leak once it enters the water. A 3D Eulerian–Eulerian model was used for validation, while a simplified 2D model was applied to simulate conditions at a 50-m depth. The models integrate bubble dynamics, gas holdup, CO 2 dissolution, dissolved species transport, and seawater acidification into a unified CFD framework. Mass transfer was calculated using the Hughmark correlation, and local seawater temperature and salinity were factored in to determine dissociation behavior and the relevant Henry’s Law constant. To confirm the 3D model’s accuracy, results were checked against two experimental datasets: the QICS field study and the Hauser Tank experiments. The team also modeled a hypothetical release scenario at the High Island 10L site and compared the results with earlier published work. The results show that at a depth of 50 m, the surrounding water column can completely absorb a CO 2 release at a rate of 35 kg/s, since the gas dissolves into the seawater as it rises toward the surface. Beyond confirming this mitigation capacity, the simulations shed light on how a leak would actually unfold in the environment, including the shape and movement of the rising bubble plume, how much CO 2 dissolves along the way, and the resulting shifts in seawater pH and pCO 2 . Together, this provides a practical framework for assessing how CO 2 leaks could affect marine environments in the Gulf of Mexico.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Thermal and solubility effects on fault leakage during geologic carbon storage

Geologic carbon storage (GCS) is a promising method for reducing anthropogenic CO 2 emissions to the atmosphere. To safely deploy GCS in the field, it is necessary to assess risks and the effect of uncertainty on safe storage. The effect of uncertainty can be quantified using batches of simulations, but the high computational costs of high-resolution simulations necessitate use of reduced-order models (ROMs). Previous work involves ROMs for quantifying the risk of different potential leakage paths from storage reservoirs to shallow formations. However, previous studies on development of fault-leakage ROMs have limited numbers of uncertain parameters and do not explicitly examine impacts of CO 2 solubility and thermal stresses on fault reactivation, which can generate high-permeability pathways and compromise CO 2 storage. Here, we analyze an ensemble of simulations considering CO 2 leakage from a storage reservoir to a shallow aquifer through a fault while varying a number of uncertain parameters related to thermo-hydro-mechanical properties and CO 2 injection. We show the effects of solubility on: free-phase CO 2 -leakage rates, brine-leakage rates, and poroelastic fault destabilization. We find that CO 2 solubility is more important for estimating free-phase CO 2 -leakage rates compared to brine-leakage rates or poroelastic fault destabilization. We also find that thermal stresses and overpressures have different spatial distributions within the fault, indicating that the spatial variability of overpressures due to variation in flow parameters does not necessarily make the spatial variability of thermal stresses negligible. We suggest the use of the CO 2 phase-change path as a variable in future fault-leakage ROMs.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Quantum Zeno Control of Superconducting Qubit Coherence

The Quantum Zeno Effect (QZE) dictates how the dynamics of a quantum system can be modified through continuous or discrete measurements [1]. It has gained increasing attention in quantum computing community in recent years, both due to its inevitable implications for qubit readout as well as for its promise for enabling new methods of quantum state control such as reservoir engineering and Zeno-dragging. Here, we investigate Zeno effects implemented via weak measurements for controlling superconducting-qubit coherence during gate and readout operations in a multi-qubit setup. Building on prior observations [2] that measurement backaction can both suppress and enhance qubit relaxation, we predict and measure QZE-altered qubit coherence times by manipulating the spectral overlap of qubit spectrum with background noise sources. We also discuss modifications and opportunities for controllable QZE due to anharmonic effects in multi-level superconducting atoms. [1] S. Greenfield, A. Kamal, J. Dressel, E. Levenson-Falk, arXiv:2506.12679 (2025) [2] Thorbeck, Z. Xiao, L. Govia, A. Kamal, Phys. Rev. Lett. 132, 090602 (2024)

Seidel, Olivia [Texas U., Arlington; Fermilab]↗

Computed Tomography Scanning and Geophysical Measurements of the Wellington 1-32 Core

The computed tomography (CT) facilities and the Multi-Sensor Core Logger (MSCL) at the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE), National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) in Morgantown, West Virginia were used to characterize core from the Wellington 1-32 well (API 15-191-22591), a small-scale field test site in the Wellington Field, in Sumner County, Kansas. Wellington 1-32 was drilled in association with the Kansas Geologic Survey’s (KGS) Phase I pre-feasibility study under the DOE-NETL Carbon Storage Assurance Facility Enterprise (CarbonSAFE) program, with the goal of utilizing the Arbuckle Group as a reservoir for CO 2 storage and the potential for stacked reservoir enhanced oil recovery from Mississippian reservoirs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

ML-based Data Assimilation and History Matching: Application to the IBDP CCS Project

It is crucial to monitor the CO2 plume effectively throughout the life cycle of a geologic CO2 sequestration project to ensure safety and storage efficiency. However, the computational cost of existing data assimilation methods can be prohibitively expensive due to the complex physics with multi-component non-isothermal simulation and high dimensionality of large-scale reservoir models. We address this challenge by proposing an accelerated deep learning-based workflow for model calibration and prediction of CO2 plume evolution in the reservoir.The power and efficacy of our workflow is demonstrated by application to the Illinois Basin-Decatur Project (IBDP), a large-scale CO2 storage test in saline aquifer. The data assimilation process is implemented rapidly by the proposed workflow with given field measurements including distributed pressure and temperature sensing (DTS) data at an injection and a monitoring well. CO2 plume evolution is predicted by running the simulations of the calibrated reservoir models.

Nagao, Masahiro↗

Mixed Delay/Nondelay Embeddings Based Neuromorphic Computing with Patterned Nanomagnet Arrays

Patterned nanomagnet arrays (PNAs) have been shown to exhibit a strong geometrically frustrated dipole interaction. Some PNAs have also shown emergent domain wall dynamics. Previous works have demonstrated methods to physically probe these magnetization dynamics of PNAs to realize neuromorphic reservoir systems that exhibit chaotic dynamical behavior and high-dimensional nonlinearity. These PNA reservoir systems from prior works leverage echo state properties and linear/nonlinear short-term memory of component reservoir nodes to map and preserve the dynamical information of the input time-series data into nondelay spatial embeddings. Such mappings enable these PNA reservoir systems to imitate and predict/forecast the input time series data. However, these prior PNA reservoir systems are based solely on the nondelay spatial embeddings obtained at component reservoir nodes. As a result, they require a massive number of component reservoir nodes, or a very large spatial embedding (i.e., high-dimensional spatial embedding) per reservoir node, or both, to achieve acceptable imitation and prediction accuracy. These requirements reduce the practical feasibility of such PNA reservoir systems. To address this shortcoming, we present a mixed delay/nondelay embeddings-based PNA reservoir system. Our system uses a single PNA reservoir node with the ability to obtain a mixture of delay/nondelay embeddings of the dynamical information of the time-series data applied at the input of a single PNA reservoir node. Our analysis shows that when these mixed delay/nondelay embeddings are used to train a perceptron at the output layer, our reservoir system outperforms existing PNA-based reservoir systems for the imitation of NARMA 2, NARMA 5, NARMA 7, and NARMA 10 time series data, and for the short-term and long-term prediction of the Mackey Glass time series data.

Ti, Changpeng↗

Matrix-Free High-Performance Saddle-Point Solvers for High-Order Problems in \(\boldsymbol{H}(\operatorname{\textbf{div}})\)

Here, this work describes the development of matrix-free GPU-accelerated solvers for high-order finite element problems in H(div). The solvers are applicable to grad-div and Darcy problems in saddle-point formulation, and have applications in radiation diffusion and porous media flow problems, among others. Using the interpolation–histopolation basis, efficient matrix-free preconditioners can be constructed for the (1, 1)-block and Schur complement of the block system. With these approximations, block-preconditioned MINRES converges in a number of iterations that is independent of the mesh size and polynomial degree. The approximate Schur complement takes the form of an M-matrix graph Laplacian and therefore can be well-preconditioned by highly scalable algebraic multigrid methods. High-performance GPU-accelerated algorithms for all components of the solution algorithm are developed, discussed, and benchmarked. Numerical results are presented on a number of challenging test cases, including the “crooked pipe” grad-div problem, the SPE10 reservoir modeling benchmark problem, and a nonlinear radiation diffusion test case.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Permeability Prediction Using Vision Transformers

Accurate permeability predictions remain pivotal for understanding fluid flow in porous media, influencing crucial operations across petroleum engineering, hydrogeology, and related fields. Traditional approaches, while robust, often grapple with the inherent heterogeneity of reservoir rocks. With the advent of deep learning, convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have emerged as potent tools in image-based permeability estimation, capitalizing on micro-CT scans and digital rock imagery. This paper introduces a novel paradigm, employing vision transformers (ViTs)—a recent advancement in computer vision—for this crucial task. ViTs, which segment images into fixed-sized patches and process them through transformer architectures, present a promising alternative to CNNs. We present a methodology for implementing ViTs for permeability prediction, its results on diverse rock samples, and a comparison against conventional CNNs. The prediction results suggest that, with adequate training data, ViTs can match or surpass the predictive accuracy of CNNs, especially in rocks exhibiting significant heterogeneity. This study underscores the potential of ViTs as an innovative tool in permeability prediction, paving the way for further research and integration into mainstream reservoir characterization workflows.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A reactive tracer method for predicting EGS reservoir geometry and thermal lifetime: development and field validation

The project summarized here (DOE Award No. DE-EE0006764) was intended to develop a methodology for predicting advective heat transfer in fracture-dominated crystalline rock. Our goal was to determine if a combination of inert and reactive tracers could adequately constrain the effective heat transfer surface area between an injection-production well pair. Our approach consisted of: 1. developing a novel computational framework; 2. Performing heat and tracer experiments at meso-scale; and 3. Comparing predictions of advective heat transfer to the “true” thermal breakthrough measured at the Altona site. Below is a summary of project activities/findings, a summary of project tasks, and a conclusion

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

BiGEST

Natural products have provided a rich reservoir of beneficial compounds in public health including antibiotics, therapeutics, and immunosuppressants. These natural products are synthesized by enzymes encoded by Biosynthetic Gene Clusters (BGCs), clusters of co-localized biosynthetic genes. Computational detection of BGCs has become a crucial step in natural product discovery. While this process has been facilitated in bacterial and fungal organisms thanks to the currently available tools (e.g., antiSMASH), a large spectrum of eukaryotic organisms have been neglected by these existing tools due to the scarcity and incompleteness of genome annotation resources. Here, we introduce Biosynthetic Gene cluster Extensive Search Tool (BiGEST) to provide an extensive annotation-free search for BGCs in diverse eukaryotic organisms. As a result, BiGEST uncovers eukaryotic BGCs that could be undetected by other BGC detection tools.

Adriani, Lisa↗

Legacy Well Leakage Risk Analysis at the Farnsworth Unit Site

This paper summarizes the results of the risk analysis and characterization of the CO 2 and brine leakage potential of Farnsworth Unit (FWU) site wells. The study is part of the U.S. DOE’s National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) program, which aims to quantitatively evaluate long-term environmental risks under conditions of significant geologic uncertainty and variability. To achieve this, NRAP utilizes risk assessment and computational tools specifically designed to quantify uncertainties and calculate the risk associated with geologic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) sequestration. For this study, we have developed a workflow that utilizes physics-based reservoir simulation results as input to perform leakage calculations using NRAP Tools, specifically NRAP-IAM-CS and RROM-Gen. These tools enable us to conduct leakage risk analysis based on ECLIPSE reservoir simulation results and to characterize wellbore leakage at the Farnsworth Unit Site. We analyze the risk of leakage from both individual wells and the entire field under various wellbore integrity distribution scenarios. The results of the risk analysis for the leakage potential of FWU wells indicate that, when compared to the total amount of CO 2 injected, the highest cemented well integrity distribution scenario (FutureGen high flow rate) exhibits approximately 0.01% cumulative CO 2 leakage for a 25-year CO 2 injection duration at the end of a 50-year post-injection monitoring period. In contrast, the highest possible leakage scenario (open well) shows approximately 0.1% cumulative CO 2 leakage over the same time frame.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Model Tree Generator (MTG) Framework for Simulating Hydrologic Systems: Application to Reservoir Routing

Data-driven algorithms have been widely used as effective tools to mimic hydrologic systems. Unlike black-box models, decision tree algorithms offer transparent representations of systems and reveal useful information about the underlying process. A popular class of decision tree models is model tree (MT), which is designed for predicting continuous variables. Most MT algorithms employ an exhaustive search mechanism and a pre-defined splitting criterion to generate a piecewise linear model. However, this approach is computationally intensive, and the selection of the splitting criterion can significantly affect the performance of the generated model. These drawbacks can limit the application of MTs to large datasets. To overcome these shortcomings, a new flexible Model Tree Generator (MTG) framework is introduced here. MTG is equipped with several modules to provide a flexible, efficient, and effective tool for generating MTs. The application of the algorithm is demonstrated through simulation of controlled discharge from several reservoirs across the Contiguous United States (CONUS).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Hydropower Scheduling Toolchains: Comparing Experiences in Brazil, Norway, and USA and Implications for Synergistic Research

While hydropower scheduling is a well-defined problem, there are institutional differences that need to be identified to promote constructive and synergistic research. We study how established toolchains of computer models are organized to assist operational hydropower scheduling in Brazil, Norway, and the United States’ Colorado River System (CRS). These three systems have vast hydropower resources, with numerous, geographically widespread, and complex reservoir systems. Although the underlying objective of hydropower scheduling is essentially the same, the systems are operated in different market contexts and with different alternative uses of water, where the stakeholders’ objectives clearly differ. This in turn leads to different approaches when it comes to the scope, organization, and use of models for operational hydropower scheduling and the information flow between the models. Here, we describe these hydropower scheduling toolchains, identify the similarities and differences, and shed light on the original ideas that motivated their creation. We then discuss the need to improve and extend the current toolchains and the opportunities to synergistic research that embrace those contextual differences.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Connect the Dots: In Situ 4-D Seismic Monitoring of CO 2 Storage With Spatio-Temporal CNNs

4-D seismic imaging has been widely used in CO 2 sequestration projects to monitor the fluid flow in the volumetric subsurface region that is not sampled by wells. Ideally, real-time monitoring and near-future forecasting would provide site operators with great insights to understand the dynamics of the subsurface reservoir and assess any potential risks. However, due to obstacles such as high deployment cost, availability of acquisition equipment, exclusion zones around surface structures, only very sparse seismic imaging data can be obtained during monitoring. That leads to an unavoidable and growing knowledge gap over time. The operator needs to understand the fluid flow throughout the project lifetime and the seismic data are only available at a limited number of times. This is insufficient for understanding reservoir behavior. To overcome those challenges, we have developed spatio-temporal neural-network-based models that can produce high-fidelity interpolated or extrapolated images effectively and efficiently. Specifically, our models are built on an autoencoder, and incorporate the long short-term memory (LSTM) structure with a new loss function regularized by optical flow. We validate the performance of our models using real 4-D post-stack seismic imaging data acquired at the Sleipner CO 2 sequestration field. We employ two different strategies in evaluating our models. Numerically, we compare our models with different baseline approaches using classic pixel-based metrics. We also conduct a blind survey and collect a total of 20 responses from domain experts to evaluate the quality of data generated by our models. Finally, via both numerical and expert evaluation, we conclude that our models can produce high-quality 2-D/3-D seismic imaging data at a reasonable cost, offering the possibility of real-time monitoring or even near-future forecasting of the CO 2 storage reservoir.

4-D seismic imaging↗