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At least 181 records · Page 10

Dynamic Parameter Estimation with Physics-based Neural Ordinary Differential Equations

Accurate estimation of dynamic parameters of gen-erators is crucial to building a reliable model for dynamical studies and reliable operation of the power system. This paper develops a physics-based neural ordinary differential equations (ODE) approach to learn the parameters of generator dynamic model using phasor measurement units (PMU) data. We design a physics-based neural network to represent the swing equations of the power system dynamics. A loss function is defined as the difference between dynamic simulation results from the physics-based neural networks and pseudo PMU measurements. The parameters of generator dynamic model are iteratively updated using the neural ODEs and the adjoint method. By exploiting the mini-batch scheme in neural ODE training, the parameter estimation performance is significantly improved. Numerical study results on a 3-machine 9-bus system show that the proposed algorithm outperforms state-of-the-art baseline method in both computation time and dynamic parameter estimation accuracy.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Reliability growth models for NASA applications

The objective of any reliability growth study is prediction of reliability at some future instant. Another objective is statistical inference, estimation of reliability for reliability demonstration. A cause of concern for the development engineer and management is that reliability demands an excessive number of tests for reliability demonstration. For example, the Space Transportation Main Engine (STME) program requirements call for .99 reliability at 90 pct. confidence for demonstration. This requires running 230 tests with zero failure if a classical binomial model is used. It is therefore also an objective to explore the reliability growth models for reliability demonstration and tracking and their applicability to NASA programs. A reliability growth model is an analytical tool used to monitor the reliability progress during the development program and to establish a test plan to demonstrate an acceptable system reliability.

Taneja, Vidya S.↗

Long life reliability thermal control systems study

The results of a program undertaken to conceptually design and evaluate a passive, high reliability, long life thermal control system for space station application are presented. The program consisted of four steps: (1) investigate and select potential thermal system elements; (2) conceive, evaluate and select a thermal control system using these elements; (3) conduct a verification test of a prototype segment of the selected system; and (4) evaluate the utilization of waste heat from the power supply. The result of this project is a conceptual thermal control system design which employs heat pipes as primary components, both for heat transport and temperature control. The system, its evaluation, and the test results are described.

Scollon, T. R., Jr.↗

Analyzing Potential Failures and Effects in a Pilot-Scale Biomass Preprocessing Facility for Improved Reliability

This study demonstrates a failure identification methodology applied to a preprocessing facility generating conversion-ready feedstocks from biomass meeting conversion process critical quality attribute (CQA) specifications. Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) was used as an industrially relevant risk analysis approach to evaluate a logging residue preprocessing system to prepare feedstock for pyrolysis conversion. Risk evaluations considered both system-level and operation unit-level assessments considering process efficiency, product quality, cost, sustainability, and safety. Key outputs included estimations of semi-quantitative risk scores for each failure, identification of the failure impacts, identification of failure causes associated with material attributes and process parameters, ranking success rates of failure detection methods, and speculation of potential mitigation strategies for decreasing failure risk scores. Results showed that deviations from moisture specifications had cascading consequences for other CQAs along with process safety implications. Failures linked to fixed carbon specifications carried the highest risk scores for product quality and process efficiency impacts. As increased throughput can be inversely related to meeting product quality specifications; achieving throughput and other material-based CQAs simultaneously will likely require system optimization or prioritization based on system economics. Ultimately, this work successfully demonstrates FMEA as a risk analysis approach for other bioenergy process systems.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Design study for a high reliability five-year spacecraft tape transport

Following the establishment of the overall transport concept, a study of all of the life limiting constraints associated with the transport were analyzed using modeling techniques. These design techniques included: (1) a response analysis from which the performance of the transport could be determined under operating conditions for a variety of conceptual variations both in a new and aged condition; (2) an analysis of a double cone guidance technique which yielded an optimum design for maximum guidance with minimum tape degradation; (3) an analysis of the tape pack design to eliminate spoking caused by negative tangential stress within the pack; (4) an evaluation of the stress levels experienced by the magnetic tape throughout the system; (5) a general review of the bearing and lubrication technology as applied to satellite recorders and hence the recommendation for using standard load carrying antifriction ball bearings; and (6) a kinetic analysis to determine the change in kinetic properties of the transport during operation.

Benn, G. S. L.↗

A study of fault prediction and reliability assessment in the SEL environment

An empirical study on estimation and prediction of faults, prediction of fault detection and correction effort, and reliability assessment in the Software Engineering Laboratory environment (SEL) is presented. Fault estimation using empirical relationships and fault prediction using curve fitting method are investigated. Relationships between debugging efforts (fault detection and correction effort) in different test phases are provided, in order to make an early estimate of future debugging effort. This study concludes with the fault analysis, application of a reliability model, and analysis of a normalized metric for reliability assessment and reliability monitoring during development of software.

Basili, Victor R.↗

Impact of system parameters and geospatial variables on the reliability of residential systems with PV and energy storage

A reliable power supply is the foundation of modern society, enabling technologies used to function within a society. Residential systems are places where the end users directly consume power, enabling technologies to sustain life. With the emergence of behind-the-meter resources, the end-users have some control over power supply reliability. The intermittency and variability of these resources impact residential system reliability. In this work, we study the reliability performance of a grid-supplemented residential system with behind-the-meter Distributed Energy Resources(DER) subject to various system parameters and geospatial variables. We propose a multistate reliability model for the behind-the-meter microinverter-based Photo Voltaic (PV) system and integrated inverter-based energy storage (ES) system. A sequential Monte Carlo method is then presented to evaluate the reliability indices for the residential system with behind-the-meter DERs as the main supply and the grid as the backup. The sequential Monte Carlo method is used to analyze the reliability performance of the residential model at the top 100 populous counties of the United States, where actual load and solar irradiance data at the counties is used. In the analysis, the sensitivity of indices to system parameters such as DER size and the sensitivity of the indices to climate zone and gross horizontal irradiation (GHI), which affects the load conditions and the PV output of the residential system, is performed. The analysis results show that the system parameters and the geospatial variables significantly impact the residential system’s reliability. The insights from this analysis will be of immense value to the distribution system planners to provide zone-specific guidelines for DER system sizing and toward the evolution of utility business models. Finally, the methodology developed can be used to extend the analysis to other locations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Cell-level reliability testing procedures for CIGS photovoltaics

The reliability of photovoltaics is commonly studied at the module level. Many reliability problems originate from module attributes, such as metal interconnections to cells, junction boxes. However, significant work in reliability can also be done prior to module design. Testing for reliability earlier in the research cycle increases the probability of avoiding common module reliability problems before cell changes are implemented on a large scale. Cell-level reliability studies can thus lower the rates of module failures in the field and provide confidence to investors that new technologies will perform as advertised. This report summarizes how we investigated three reliability concerns in Cu(In,Ga)Se 2 (CIGS) photovoltaics at the cell level: metastability, shading-induced damage, and potential-induced degradation (PID). We find that examining these concerns required developing robust measurement protocols including the fabrication of novel testing structures. This information will allow readers to incorporate sound metrics for investigating reliability phenomena and aid their studies of cell and module reliability improvements.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

An empirical study of flight control software reliability

The results of a laboratory experiment in flight control software reliability are reported. The experiment tests a small sample of implementations of a pitch axis control law for a PA28 aircraft with over 14 million pitch commands with varying levels of additive input and feedback noise. The testing which uses the method of n-version programming for error detection surfaced four software faults in one implementation of the control law. The small number of detected faults precluded the conduct of the error burst analyses. The pitch axis problem provides data for use in constructing a model in the prediction of the reliability of software in systems with feedback. The study is undertaken to find means to perform reliability evaluations of flight control software.

Dunham, J. R.↗

Design and requirements of a hydrogen component reliability database (HyCReD)

Hydrogen technologies are expected to play a key role in the decarbonization of several sectors including energy storage and transportation. Rigorous investigation and quantification of the risk and reliability issues associated with hydrogen technologies will be critical to ensuring both their wider adoption and safe, economical operations. Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) is an important tool that has been used to enable the safe deployment of many engineering systems, including hydrogen fueling stations and hydrogen storage systems. However, QRA studies require reliability data which is currently lacking for expanding applications of hydrogen systems. Here, to address this gap, we present a new structure for a hydrogen component reliability database (HyCReD) that can be used to generate reliability data to be used in QRA, reliability, safety studies, maintenance planning, and more. Building on our previous work examining four major hydrogen safety data collection tools (West et al., 2022) [1], our approach in this work was to consult scientific literature on reliability data collection as well as a number of existing reliability engineering databases in the oil & gas, chemical processing, and nuclear power plant sectors. The evaluation of these databases led to identifying best practices to be implemented in a data collection framework for a hydrogen component reliability database. Based on these best practices, a set of 24 requirements for the proposed database are presented, covering its characteristics and the types of data to be collected. We define the structure of the HyCReD database and 25 data elements to be collected, spanning system description, failure, shutdown, or near-miss events, and maintenance events. The data elements are then defined according to international standards used in the safety and reliability practice and potential choice lists are provided for each field. Since this database is being piloted for hydrogen fueling stations, a generic station component hierarchy developed by West (2021) [2] is used to standardize system data. Finally, we demonstrate populating the database with information extracted from five narrative reports on hydrogen fueling station incidents.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Probabilistic fatigue methodology for six nines reliability

Fleet readiness and flight safety strongly depend on the degree of reliability that can be designed into rotorcraft flight critical components. The current U.S. Army fatigue life specification for new rotorcraft is the so-called six nines reliability, or a probability of failure of one in a million. The progress of a round robin which was established by the American Helicopter Society (AHS) Subcommittee for Fatigue and Damage Tolerance is reviewed to investigate reliability-based fatigue methodology. The participants in this cooperative effort are in the U.S. Army Aviation Systems Command (AVSCOM) and the rotorcraft industry. One phase of the joint activity examined fatigue reliability under uniquely defined conditions for which only one answer was correct. The other phases were set up to learn how the different industry methods in defining fatigue strength affected the mean fatigue life and reliability calculations. Hence, constant amplitude and spectrum fatigue test data were provided so that each participant could perform their standard fatigue life analysis. As a result of this round robin, the probabilistic logic which includes both fatigue strength and spectrum loading variability in developing a consistant reliability analysis was established. In this first study, the reliability analysis was limited to the linear cumulative damage approach. However, it is expected that superior fatigue life prediction methods will ultimately be developed through this open AHS forum. To that end, these preliminary results were useful in identifying some topics for additional study.

Everett, R. A., Jr.↗

Digital automatic data reduction techniques used in a 1000-flight biomedical study

Techniques developed to automatically process a large quantity of physiological data obtained during a 1000-flight study are described. To reduce this data reliably, a study program was conducted using physiological data from X-15 flights as a data source for experimenting with signal enhancement and noise elimination techniques. The techniques include an automatic means for counting heart rates, averaging electrocardiogram waveforms, plotting histograms of heart rate versus frequency, and counting respiration rates. These techniques were used to reduce more than 2000 hours of physiological data recorded in flight.

Carpenter, R.↗

Automatically generated acceptance test: A software reliability experiment

This study presents results of a software reliability experiment investigating the feasibility of a new error detection method. The method can be used as an acceptance test and is solely based on empirical data about the behavior of internal states of a program. The experimental design uses the existing environment of a multi-version experiment previously conducted at the NASA Langley Research Center, in which the launch interceptor problem is used as a model. This allows the controlled experimental investigation of versions with well-known single and multiple faults, and the availability of an oracle permits the determination of the error detection performance of the test. Fault interaction phenomena are observed that have an amplifying effect on the number of error occurrences. Preliminary results indicate that all faults examined so far are detected by the acceptance test. This shows promise for further investigations, and for the employment of this test method on other applications.

Protzel, Peter W.↗

A simulation model for risk assessment of turbine wheels

A simulation model has been successfully developed to evaluate the risk of the Space Shuttle auxiliary power unit (APU) turbine wheels for a specific inspection policy. Besides being an effective tool for risk/reliability evaluation, the simulation model also allows the analyst to study the trade-offs between wheel reliability, wheel life, inspection interval, and rejection crack size. For example, in the APU application, sensitivity analysis results showed that the wheel life limit has the least effect on wheel reliability when compared to the effect of the inspection interval and the rejection crack size. In summary, the simulation model developed represents a flexible tool to predict turbine wheel reliability and study the risk under different inspection policies.

Safie, Fayssal M.↗

Sensitivity Study for Long Term Reliability

This paper illustrates using Markov models to establish system and maintenance requirements for small electronic controllers where the goal is a high probability of continuous service for a long period of time. The system and maintenance items considered are quality of components, various degrees of simple redundancy, redundancy with reconfiguration, diagnostic levels, periodic maintenance, and preventive maintenance. Markov models permit a quantitative investigation with comparison and contrast. An element of special interest is the use of conditional probability to study the combination of imperfect diagnostics and periodic maintenance.

White, Allan L.↗

Reliability Analysis for AFTI-F16 SRFCS Using ASSIST and SURE

This paper reports the results of a study on reliability analysis of an AFTI-16 Self-Repairing Flight Control System (SRFCS) using software tools SURE (Semi-Markov Unreliability Range Evaluator and ASSIST (Abstract Semi-Markov Specification Interface to the SURE Tool). The purpose of the study is to investigate the potential utility of the software tools in the ongoing effort of the NASA Aviation Safety Program, where the class of systems must be extended beyond the originally intended serving class of electronic digital processors. The study concludes that SURE and ASSIST are applicable to reliability, analysis of flight control systems. They are especially efficient for sensitivity analysis that quantifies the dependence of system reliability on model parameters. The study also confirms an earlier finding on the dominant role of a parameter called a failure coverage. The paper will remark on issues related to the improvement of coverage and the optimization of redundancy level.

Wu, N. Eva↗

A Nuclear Security Enterprise Study of High-Reliability Systems, Collaboration, and Data

It may seem simple and trivial, but defining the difference between data and information is contested and has implications that may affect the security of United States interests and even cost lives. For security, data are raw facts or figures without context, while information is the compilation or articulation of data that forms context. Security depends on clarity in the differences between data and information and controlling them. Control is necessary to ensure that data and information are not inadvertently released to foreign governments, the public, or those without Need-to-Know. A primary concern in the practice of security is the control of data to avoid the inadvertent conversion to sensitive information. The complexity of this concern is further augmented when institutions are part of tightly coupled networks that informally share data and information. Additionally, those that share data as a function of legislative action—and/or formally integrate data and information system infrastructures—may be a higher security risk. This paper will present a case study that utilizes elements of literature from Knowledge Management and networks to tell a story of an issue in security—specifically, controlling the conversion of data to information.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗