Structural reliability analysis techniques and reflector example
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Alternate definitions of system failure create complex analysis for which analytic solutions are available only for simple, special cases. The GRASP methodology is a computer simulation approach for solving all classes of problems in which both failure and repair events are modeled according to the probability laws of the individual components of the system.
The incorporation of a number of additional capabilities into an existing Weibull analysis computer program and the results of Monte Carlo computer simulation study to evaluate the usefulness of the Weibull methods using samples with a very small number of failures and extensive censoring are discussed. Since the censoring mechanism inherent in the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) data is hard to analyze, it was decided to use a random censoring model, generating censoring times from a uniform probability distribution. Some of the statistical techniques and computer programs that are used in the SSME Weibull analysis are described. The methods documented in were supplemented by adding computer calculations of approximate (using iteractive methods) confidence intervals for several parameters of interest. These calculations are based on a likelihood ratio statistic which is asymptotically a chisquared statistic with one degree of freedom. The assumptions built into the computer simulations are described. The simulation program and the techniques used in it are described there also. Simulation results are tabulated for various combinations of Weibull shape parameters and the numbers of failures in the samples.
The performance of a new, fast probability integration method which combines an improved equivalent normal concept and a scheme for linearizing a quadratic limit state is carefully examined. The examples tested include various combinations of linear and nonlinear limit states with normal and nonnormal variables; some examples are considered the worst possible cases. It is demonstrated that the new method is able to provide accurate probability-of-failure estimates for most cases and performs reasonably well when the Rackwitz-Fiessler method produces severe errors.
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Multiversion or N-version programming was proposed as a method of providing fault tolerance in software. The approach requires the separate, independent preparation of multiple versions of a piece of software for some application. Specific topics addressed are: failure probabilities in N-version systems, consistent comparison in N-version systems, descriptions of the faults found in the Knight and Leveson experiment, analytic models of comparison testing, characteristics of the input regions that trigger faults, fault tolerance through data diversity, and the relationship between failures caused by automatically seeded faults.
Specific topics briefly addressed include: the consistent comparison problem in N-version system; analytic models of comparison testing; fault tolerance through data diversity; and the relationship between failures caused by automatically seeded faults.
The Weibull modulus, fracture toughness and thermal properties of a silicon nitride material used to make a gas turbine combustor were experimentally measured. The location and nature of failure origins resulting from bend tests were determined with fractographic analysis. The measured Weibull parameters were used along with thermal and stress analysis to determine failure probabilities of the combustor with the CARES design code. The effect of data censoring, FEM mesh refinement, and fracture criterion were considered in the analysis.
The present comparison of the Batdorf (1974) flaw density and orientation distribution approach with Evans' (1978) elemental strength approach, with a view to identities in fracture criteria and distribution functions, notes that despite their fundamental differences in multiaxial loading fracture probabilities, the two approaches yield identical predictions. Lamon's (1988) assertion to the contrary, in light of different theoretical predictions by the two methods for the case of alumina disks loaded in flexure, is demonstrated to be in error.
The Weibull modulus, fracture toughness and thermal properties of a silicon nitride material used to make a gas turbine combustor were experimentally measured. The location and nature of failure origins resulting from bend tests were determined with fractographic analysis. The measured Weibull parameters were used along with thermal and stress analysis to determine failure probabilities of the combustor with the CARES design code. The effect of data censoring, FEM mesh refinement, and fracture criterion were considered in the analysis.
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PARAGRAPH is an animated graphics display package. It consists of two parts: an interface to CSIM (a process based simulation language) and a graphic display system. When a simulation model is executed on CSIM the interface collects pertinent performance analysis data and writes them to a file. This file is then fed to the graphic display system which depicts the execution of the simulation model visually. This report focuses on the graphical display system. Specifically it describes the user interface and features of the display system. It also explains how Interviews (which is based on X-windows) is used as the basis for the design of PARAGRAPH. The last section contains an example in which a basic load balancing simulation model is used to demonstrate the features and the capability of PARAGRAPH.
Human/process error is potentially a large contributor to failures of aerospace systems. For some systems, such as the space shuttle main engine, large amounts of data are available, and accurate failure rates can be determined empirically. For such systems, the human error is implicit in the empirical failure rate and does not need to be quantified separately. However, for other systems, such as the solid rocket boosters, large amounts of data are not available and the failure rates must be determined by more theoretical means. When empirical data is lacking, structural models and engineering judgment must be employed. In this case, the human/process error must be modeled explicitly. An extensive literature review was performed to determine what methods already exist for modeling human error for aerospace systems. No methods that apply directly were found, although there are a number of methods that have been developed specifically for the nuclear power industry that could probably be modified for space applications. The results of the literature review are presented, as well as recommendations for future research.
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