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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Improving deep learning-based protein distance prediction in CASP14

Abstract Motivation Accurate prediction of residue–residue distances is important for protein structure prediction. We developed several protein distance predictors based on a deep learning distance prediction method and blindly tested them in the 14th Critical Assessment of Protein Structure Prediction (CASP14). The prediction method uses deep residual neural networks with the channel-wise attention mechanism to classify the distance between every two residues into multiple distance intervals. The input features for the deep learning method include co-evolutionary features as well as other sequence-based features derived from multiple sequence alignments (MSAs). Three alignment methods are used with multiple protein sequence/profile databases to generate MSAs for input feature generation. Based on different configurations and training strategies of the deep learning method, five MULTICOM distance predictors were created to participate in the CASP14 experiment. Results Benchmarked on 37 hard CASP14 domains, the best performing MULTICOM predictor is ranked 5th out of 30 automated CASP14 distance prediction servers in terms of precision of top L/5 long-range contact predictions [i.e. classifying distances between two residues into two categories: in contact (<8 Angstrom) and not in contact otherwise] and performs better than the best CASP13 distance prediction method. The best performing MULTICOM predictor is also ranked 6th among automated server predictors in classifying inter-residue distances into 10 distance intervals defined by CASP14 according to the precision of distance classification. The results show that the quality and depth of MSAs depend on alignment methods and sequence databases and have a significant impact on the accuracy of distance prediction. Using larger training datasets and multiple complementary features improves prediction accuracy. However, the number of effective sequences in MSAs is only a weak indicator of the quality of MSAs and the accuracy of predicted distance maps. In contrast, there is a strong correlation between the accuracy of contact/distance predictions and the average probability of the predicted contacts, which can therefore be more effectively used to estimate the confidence of distance predictions and select predicted distance maps. Availability and implementation The software package, source code and data of DeepDist2 are freely available at https://github.com/multicom-toolbox/deepdist and https://zenodo.org/record/4712084#.YIIM13VKhQM. Supplementary information Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1979

Propagation predictions for the HF-range by the Research Institute of the Deutsche Bundespost

Long term and short term HF propagation prediction service is described. The long term prediction method is computer based. The short term prediction method is still a manual method which relies mainly on a number of continuous field strength recordings and on the forecaster's ability to interpret the recordings and to combine this information with all available solar-geophysical data. Examples of the predictions are given and are compared with actually observed HF propagation conditions.

Damboldt, T.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hyperspectral leaf reflectance of grasses varies with evolutionary lineage more than with site

Abstract To predict ecological responses at broad environmental scales, grass species are commonly grouped into two broad functional types based on photosynthetic pathway. However, closely related species may have distinctive anatomical and physiological attributes that influence ecological responses, beyond those related to photosynthetic pathway alone. Hyperspectral leaf reflectance can provide an integrated measure of covarying leaf traits that may result from phylogenetic trait conservatism and/or environmental conditions. Understanding whether spectra‐trait relationships are lineage specific or reflect environmental variation across sites is necessary for using hyperspectral reflectance to predict plant responses to environmental changes across spatial scales. We measured hyperspectral leaf reflectance (400–2400 nm) and 12 structural, biochemical, and physiological leaf traits from five grass‐dominated sites spanning the Great Plains of North America. We assessed if variation in leaf reflectance spectra among grass species is explained more by evolutionary lineage (as captured by tribes or subfamilies), photosynthetic pathway (C 3 or C 4 ), or site differences. We then determined whether leaf spectra can be used to predict leaf traits within and across lineages. Our results using redundancy analysis ordination (RDA) show that grass tribe identity explained more variation in leaf spectra (adjusted R 2 = 0.12) than photosynthetic pathway, which explained little variation in leaf spectra (adjusted R 2 = 0.00). Furthermore, leaf reflectance from the same tribe across multiple sites was more similar than leaf reflectance from the same site across tribes (adjusted R 2 = 0.12 and 0.08, respectively). Across all sites and species, trait predictions based on spectra ranged considerably in predictive accuracies ( R 2 = 0.65 to <0.01), but R 2 was >0.80 for certain lineages and sites. The relationship between Vc max , a measure of photosynthetic capacity, and spectra was particularly promising. Chloridoideae, a lineage more common at drier sites, appears to have distinct spectra‐trait relationships compared with other lineages. Overall, our results show that evolutionary relatedness explains more variation in grass leaf spectra than photosynthetic pathway or site, but consideration of lineage‐ and site‐specific trait relationships is needed to interpret spectral variation across large environmental gradients.

Pau, Stephanie [Department of Geography University↗
DOE OSTI2022

Yield Estimation of the August 2020 Beirut Explosion by Using Physics‐Based Propagation Simulations of Regional Infrasound

Abstract The August 2020 Beirut explosion is the largest single‐fired ammonium nitrate explosion documented in history. The massive explosion excited loud infrasound in the atmosphere, and clear waveforms were recorded by a regional infrasound array at an epicentral distance of 100 km, allowing for accurate measurements of explosion energy. We estimate the explosion size based on the infrasound waveform inversion. Unlike conventional inversions using empirical models, we perform full 3‐D finite‐difference simulations to obtain a physics‐based propagation model for the inversion. Accurate numerical modeling of infrasound is challenging as the propagation is substantially affected by the turbulent atmosphere. Instead of a single deterministic prediction, we provide a range of waveform predictions by running multiple simulations with stochastic weather forecast models, which allows for comprehensive uncertainty analysis of numerical modeling and estimated yields. Finally, we expand the yield estimation technique for seismoacoustic analysis and demonstrate the substantial advantage of the joint approach.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2020

Large-Scale Influences on Atmospheric River–Induced Extreme Precipitation Events Along the Coast of Washington State

Transient, narrow plumes of strong water vapor transport, referred to as Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) are responsible for much of the precipitation along the west coast of the United States. Along the coast of Oregon and Washington, the most intense cool season precipitation events are almost always induced by an AR and can result in detrimental impacts on society due to mudslides and flooding. It is therefore important to understand the large scale influence on extreme AR events so that they can be accurately predicted on timescales ranging from numerical weather prediction to seasonal forecasts. Here, characteristics of ARs that result in observed extreme precipitation events are compared to typical ARs on the coast of Washington State using data from the Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2. In addition to more intense water vapor transport, notable differences in the synoptic scale forcing are present during extreme precipitation events that are not present during typical AR events. In particular, an anomalously deep low pressure system is stationed to the west in the Gulf of Alaska, alongside a jet streak overhead. Attention will also be given to subseasonal and seasonal teleconnection patterns that are known to influence the weather in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. While little influence can be seen from the phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and Pacific North American Pattern, the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) can play a role in determining the strength of precipitation associated with in AR on the Washington Coast. Lastly, interactions between the MJO and other teleconnection patterns will be explored to determine key features that should be investigated when making subseasonal predictions for AR activity and the associated precipitation in the Pacific Northwest.

Collow, Allison↗
DOE OSTI2022

A systematic method for selecting molecular descriptors as features when training models for predicting physiochemical properties

Machine learning has proven to be a powerful tool for accelerating biofuel development. Although numerous models are available to predict a range of properties using chemical descriptors, there is a trade-off between interpretability and performance. Neural networks provide predictive models with high accuracy at the expense of some interpretability, while simpler models such as linear regression often lack in accuracy. In addition to model architecture, feature selection is also critical for developing interpretable and accurate predictive models. We present a method for systematically selecting molecular descriptor features and developing interpretable machine learning models without sacrificing accuracy. Our method simplifies the process of selecting features by reducing feature multicollinearity and enables discoveries of new relationships between global properties and molecular descriptors. To demonstrate our approach, we developed models for predicting melting point, boiling point, flash point, yield sooting index, and net heat of combustion with the help of the Tree-based Pipeline Optimization Tool (TPOT). For training, we used publicly available experimental data for up to 8351 molecules. Our models accurately predict various molecular properties for organic molecules (mean absolute percent error (MAPE) ranges from 3.3% to 10.5%) and provide a set of features that are well-correlated to the property. This method enables researchers to explore sets of features that significantly contribute to the prediction of the property, offering new scientific insights. To help accelerate early stage biofuel research and development, we also integrated the data and models into a open-source, interactive web tool.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Performance and transport in the ARC tokamak

The ARC TM tokamak, a high-field (𝐵 𝑇 = 11.4 T) fusion power plant, under development by Commonwealth Fusion Systems, is studied using a suite of integrated modelling tools to predict its fusion power generation (𝑃𝑓⁡𝑢⁢𝑠), transport and confinement properties. Analysis is based off an ARC operational point scoped first with zero-dimensional (0-D) plasma operational contour (POPCON) modelling to produce 1.13 GW of fusion power. A suite of integrated modelling tools (TRANSP, ASTRA and TORAX) were applied to predict the performance and kinetic profiles of the ARC design point, yielding a range of predicted performance spanning from ∼900 to 1300 MW in rough quantitative agreement with POPCON predictions. The sensitivity of these results to uncertain modelling inputs was probed using scans of pedestal boundary conditions around EPED-predicted values (total pressure and temperature ratios), tungsten concentration and seperatrix density around their nominal assumptions. Pedestal pressure and pedestal top (𝑇 𝑖 /𝑇 𝑒 ) play a large role in 1.5-dimensional performance predictions, able to modify the predicted 𝑃 𝑓⁡𝑢⁢𝑠 by a factor of 2 within reasonable assumptions. High-fidelity core nonlinear gyrokinetic profile predictions, performed using CGYRO (Candy et al. 2016 J. Comput. Phys., vol. 324, pp. 73–93) coupled with the PORTALS (Rodriguez-Fernandez et al. 2024 Nucl. Fusion, vol. 64, 076034; Phys. Plasmas, vol. 31, 2024, 062501) framework, yield substantially lower performance (𝑃 𝑓⁡𝑢⁢𝑠 =677 MW) compared with 0-D and medium-fidelity modelling for nominal assumptions, showing that there is non-negligible uncertainty between models and that future work on SPARC may help resolve discrepancies. Lower overall performance results from significantly reduced volume-averaged densities and temperatures, along with reduced levels of density and temperature peaking. Turbulence and transport are largely dominated by ion temperature gradient across the profile, confirmed by both linear stability and the response of the nonlinear fluxes to changes in gradients, with some impact of kinetic ballooning modes in the deep core. This work represents one of the most complete scoping of potential fusion power plant conditions performed to date. The extensive integrated modelling provides confidence in ARC performance approaching 1 GW, while nonlinear gyrokinetic modelling results in open questions into the physics of density and temperature peaking in fusion-power-plant-relevant operational space. A discussion of results and the role that the SPARC tokamak (Creely et al. 2020 J. Plasma Phys., vol. 86, 865860502) will play in informing ARC design, performance and operation is presented.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Measurement of the A dependence of the ν μ charged-current quasielasticlike cross section as a function of muon and proton kinematics at ⟨E ν ⟩ ∼ 6 GeV

The first simultaneous measurements of the 𝜈 𝜇 quasielasticlike cross section on C, CH, H 2 ⁡O, Fe, and Pb targets as a function of kinematic imbalance variables in the plane transverse to the incoming neutrino direction are presented. These variables combine the muon and proton information to provide a new way to disentangle the effects of the nucleus in quasielasticlike processes. The data were obtained using a wideband 𝜈 𝜇 beam with ⟨E 𝜈 ⟩ ∼ 6 GeV. Cross-section ratios of the different target materials to CH are also shown. These measurements are used to explore the nature of the cross-section 𝐴 scaling, as well as initial and final state interaction effects. Comparisons are made to predictions from a number of commonly used neutrino Monte Carlo event generators. The range of predictions of the different models tends to cover the data but the degree and consistency of the agreement suffers in regions, and on higher 𝐴 targets, where the final state interactions are expected to be more pronounced.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Stand validation of lidar forest inventory modeling for a managed southern pine forest

We evaluated area-based approaches (ABAs) to light detection and ranging (lidar) predictions of plot- and stand-level forest attributes (tree count, height, basal area, volume, aboveground biomass, broadleaf/conifer, and diameter at breast height — “diameter”). ABA methods included post-stratification (PS), ordinary least squares (OLSs) regression, k nearest neighbors ( kNN), and random forest (RF). This study was conducted on the Savannah River Site in South Carolina, USA. Plot- and stand-level predictions were validated against fixed-radius 0.04 ha (0.1 acre) plots in 49 ≈2.0 ha (5 acre) stands. Our findings demonstrate that lidar can be incorporated operationally into forest inventory systems to provide stand-level inferences for a wide range of forest attributes. Volume predictions for specific diameter classes, however, often fared poorly (root mean squared error (RMSE) > 100%) for the methods we explored, especially for larger (less common) diameter trees. Stand-level results were consistently better than pixel-level results (10–200+ percentage points). kNN and RF performed similarly and better than OLS and PS, but RF was the most robust to model configurations, while kNN has practical advantages such as simultaneous predictions of many attributes.

Forestry↗
NASA NTRS1994

Heating of the nighttime D region by very low frequency transmitters

VLF signals propagating in the Earth-ionosphere waveguide are used to probe the heated nighttime D region over three U.S. Navy very low frequency (VLF,3-30 kHz) transmitters. Ionospheric cooling and heating are observed when a transmitter turns off and on in the course of normal operations. Heating by the 24.0-kHz NAA transmitter in Cutler, Maine, (1000 kW radiated power) was observed by this method in 41 of 52 off/on episodes during December 1992, increasing the amplitude and retarding the phase of the 21.4-kHz NSS probe wave propagating from Annapolis, Maryland, to Gander, Newfoundland, by as much as 0.84 dB and 5.3 deg, respectively. In 6 of these 41 episodes, the amplitude of the 28.5-kHz NAU probe wave propagating from Puerto Rico to Gander was also perturbed by as much as 0.29 dB. The latter observations were unexpected due to the greater than 770 km distance between NAA and the NAU-Gander great circle path. Heating by the NSS (21.4 kHz, 265 kW) and NLK (24.8 kHz, 850 kW) transmitters was observed serendipitously in data from earlier measurements of the amplitudes of VLF signals propagating in the Earth-ionosphere waveguide. A three-dimensional model of wave absorption and electron heating in a magnetized, weakly ionized plasma is used to calculate the extent nad shape of the collision frequency (i.e., electron temperature) enhancement above a VLF transmitter. The enhancements are annular, with a geomagnetic north-south asymmetry and a radius at the outer half-maximum of the collision frequency enhancement of about 150 km. Heating by the NAA transmitter is predicted to increase the nighttime D region electron temperature by as much as a factor of 3. The calculated changes in the D region conductivity are used in a three-dimensional model of propagation in the Earth-ionosphere wavelength to predict the effect of the heated patch on a subionospheric VLF probe wave. The range of predicted scattered field amplitudes is in general consistent with the observed signal perturbations. Discrepanices in the predictions are attributed to lack of knowledge of the D region electron density profile along the probe wave great circle paths.

Rodriguez, Juan V.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Electronic Properties of Ultra‐Wide Bandgap B x Al 1− x N Computed from First‐Principles Simulations

Abstract Ultra‐wide bandgap (UWBG) materials such as AlN and BN hold great promise for future power electronics due to their exceptional properties. They exhibit large bandgaps, high breakdown fields, high thermal conductivity, and high mechanical strengths. AlN and BN have been extensively researched, however, their alloys, B x Al 1− x N, are much less studied despite their ability to offer tunable properties by adjusting x . In this article, the electronic properties of 17 recently predicted ground states of B x Al 1− x N in the x = 0 − 1 range are predicted using first‐principles density functional theory and many‐body perturbation theory within GW approximation. All the B x Al 1− x N structures are found to be UWBG materials and have bandgaps that vary linearly from that of wurtzite‐phase ( w ) AlN (6.19 eV) to that of w ‐BN (7.47 eV). The bandstructures of B x Al 1− x N show that a direct‐to‐indirect bandgap crossover occurs near x = 0.25. Furthermore, it is found that B x Al 1− x N alloys have much larger dielectric constants than the constituent bulk materials (AlN = 9.3 ɛ 0 or BN = 7.3 ɛ 0 ), with values reaching as high as 12.1 ɛ 0 . These alloys are found to exhibit large dielectric breakdown fields in the range 9–35 MV cm −1 with a linear dependence on x . This work provides the much needed advancement in the understanding of the properties of B x Al 1− x N to aid their application in next‐generation devices.

Milne, Cody L.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Development of an Experimental Data Base to Validate Compressor-Face Boundary Conditions Used in Unsteady Inlet Flow Computations

The ability to predict the dynamics of integrated inlet/compressor systems is an important part of designing high-speed propulsion systems. The boundaries of the performance envelope are often defined by undesirable transient phenomena in the inlet (unstart, buzz, etc.) in response to disturbances originated either in the engine or in the atmosphere. Stability margins used to compensate for the inability to accurately predict such processes lead to weight and performance penalties, which translate into a reduction in vehicle range. The prediction of transients in an inlet/compressor system requires either the coupling of two complex, unsteady codes (one for the inlet and one for the engine) or else a reliable characterization of the inlet/compressor interface, by specifying a boundary condition. In the context of engineering development programs, only the second option is viable economically. Computations of unsteady inlet flows invariably rely on simple compressor-face boundary conditions (CFBC's). Currently, customary conditions include choked flow, constant static pressure, constant axial velocity, constant Mach number or constant mass flow per unit area. These conditions are straightforward extensions of practices that are valid for and work well with steady inlet flows. Unfortunately, it is not at all likely that any flow property would stay constant during a complex system transient. At the start of this effort, no experimental observation existed that could be used to formulate of verify any of the CFBC'S. This lack of hard information represented a risk for a development program that has been recognized to be unacceptably large. The goal of the present effort was to generate such data. Disturbances reaching the compressor face in flight may have complex spatial structures and temporal histories. Small amplitude disturbances may be decomposed into acoustic, vorticity and entropy contributions that are uncoupled if the undisturbed flow is uniform. This study is focused on the response of an inlet/compressor system to acoustic disturbances. From the viewpoint of inlet computations, acoustic disturbances are clearly the most important, since they are the only ones capable of moving upstream. Convective and entropy disturbances may also produce upstream-moving acoustic waves, but such processes are outside the scope of the present study.

Sajben, Miklos↗
NASA NTRS1984

Predictability experiments using a low order empirically corrected dynamical model

It is generally accepted that day to day weather variations possess a finite range of predictability estimated to be approximately two weeks (e.g., Lorenz, 1965). However, considerable observational evidence points to the existence of a number of low frequency flow regimes which are potentially predictable beyond this limit. These include blocking events and teleconnection patterns such as those described in Wallace and Gutzler (1981). The problem of the predictability of such modes is addressed by employing a highly simplified dynamical model projected onto the modes of interest. These modes are computed from an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of 10-day averaged anomalies (deviations from the mean seasonal cycle) of the 500 mb stream function for the winters of 1967-76. The first three EOF's are associated with an index cycle and some of the teleconnection patterns. The fourth and ninth are related to North Pacific and North Atlantic blocking, respectively.

Schubert, S.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Predictability of the tropical atmosphere

An examination of the deterministic predictability for tropics and middle-latitudes separately indicates that the theoretical upper limit of deterministic predictability for low latitudes is shorter than that for middle latitudes. Variability of time averages in low latitudes is mainly determined by the location and intensity of the large-scale Hadley and Walker circulations. Since these are largely influenced by the slowly varying boundary conditions of sea surface temperature and soil moisture, and since synoptic instabilities are not strong enough to change drastically the large scale flow, there is larger potential for predictability of monthly and seasonal means in low latitudes. It is conjectured that for short and medium range deterministic prediction, a prescribed diabatic heating field due to moist convection may be more useful than their explicit calculation from the evolving flow.

Shukla, J.↗
NASA NTRS1985

A 94 GHz imaging array using slot line radiators

A planar endfire slotted-line antenna structure was investigated. It was found that the H-plane beamwidths are basically dependent upon the substrate properties, whereas the E-plane beamwidths are more strongly a function of the slot's shape and size. It is shown that these antennas produce symmetrical E and H-plane beamwidths while following Zucker's standard traveling-wave antenna beamwidth curves over some range of antenna normalized length. An empircally derived design formula for effective substrate thickness is shown to predict this range for linearly tapered slotted-line antennas. The experimental imaging properties of these arrays are presented and imaging theory is discussed. It is shown that a minimum spacing of elements is necessary for exact reconstruction for a sampled image in a diffraction limited system. Because these LTSA elements employ the traveling-wave mechanism of radiation, they can be spaced two times closer than a conical feed horn of comparable beamwidth.

Korzeniowski, T. L.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Thermal conductivity tensor of γ and ε -hexanitrohexaazaisowurtzitane as a function of pressure and temperature

Using reverse non-equilibrium molecular dynamics simulations, we have determined the dependences on temperature and pressure of the thermal conductivity tensors for the monoclinic γ and ε polymorphs of hexanitrohexaazaisowurtzitane (HNIW or CL20). In this work, a recently developed non-reactive force field [X. Bidault and S. Chaudhuri, RSC Adv. 9, 39649–39661 (2019)], designed to study polymorphism and phase transitions in CL20, is employed. The effects of temperature and pressure are investigated between 200 and 500 K and up to 0.5 GPa for γ-CL20 and 2 GPa for ε-CL20. In order to obtain the full thermal conductivity tensor, $κ_{ij}$, for the monoclinic crystals, four distinct heat propagation directions are used. We find that $κ_{ij}$ for both polymorphs is more isotropic than for other energetic molecular crystals, including α- and γ-RDX, β-HMX, and PETN, with a maximum difference of 9.8% between orientations observed at 300 K and 0 GPa for γ-CL20 and a maximum difference of 4.8% for ε-CL20. The average thermal conductivity, $\bar{κ}$, of ε-CL20 is 6.4% larger than that of γ-CL20 at 300 K and 0 GPa. Analytic linear functions of the inverse temperature and the pressure are provided, which fit the data well and can be used to predict the thermal conductivity of both polymorphs for any orientation, pressure, and temperature in and around the fitting range. Our predictions agree reasonably well with the limited available experimental data, for which the polymorph type is unknown.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Predictive Model for Workload in Remote Operators During sUAS Contingency Scenarios

The increase in automated capabilities of small Uncrewed Aerial Systems (sUAS) has enabled the human operators to manage larger numbers of vehicles simultaneously. As this happens, the operational paradigm shifts to an m:N configuration where multiple operators (m) are managing multiple vehicles (N) together. However, many questions about how operators will interact with each other and share interaction across the vehicle pool are yet unanswered. Therefore, stakeholders from government and industry have partnered to develop ground control station concepts for such operations. The work presented in this paper aims to identify factors that contribute to operator workload. A supervised machine learning-based method built using Support Vector Machines and K-fold cross-validation was used to create workload prediction models for various NASA TLX subscales by leveraging features related to interactions and their relative timings during m:N operations. Results show that the models yielded fairly high predictive accuracies ranging from ~60-75%.

workload prediction↗