A geometrical description for interplanetary propagation of Earth-directed CMEs based on radiative proxies
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A parameter-based multi-model blending method and system are described. The method includes selecting a parameter of interest among parameters estimated by each of a set of individual models, running the set of individual models with a range of inputs to obtain a range of estimates of the parameters from each of the set of individual models, and identifying, for each of the set of individual models, critical parameters among the parameters estimated, the critical parameters exhibiting a specified correlation with an error in estimation of the parameter of interest. For each subspace of combinations of the critical parameters, obtaining a parameter-based blended model is based on blending the set of individual models in accordance with the subspace of the critical parameters, the subspace defining a sub-range for each of the critical parameters.
A parameter-based multi-model blending method and system are described. The method includes selecting a parameter of interest among parameters estimated by each of a set of individual models, running the set of individual models with a range of inputs to obtain a range of estimates of the parameters from each of the set of individual models, and identifying, for each of the set of individual models, critical parameters among the parameters estimated, the critical parameters exhibiting a specified correlation with an error in estimation of the parameter of interest. For each subspace of combinations of the critical parameters, obtaining a parameter-based blended model is based on blending the set of individual models in accordance with the subspace of the critical parameters, the subspace defining a sub-range for each of the critical parameters.
A parameter-based multi-model blending method and system are described. The method includes selecting a parameter of interest among parameters estimated by each of a set of individual models, running the set of individual models with a range of inputs to obtain a range of estimates of the parameters from each of the set of individual models, and identifying, for each of the set of individual models, critical parameters among the parameters estimated, the critical parameters exhibiting a specified correlation with an error in estimation of the parameter of interest. For each subspace of combinations of the critical parameters, obtaining a parameter-based blended model is based on blending the set of individual models in accordance with the subspace of the critical parameters, the subspace defining a sub-range for each of the critical parameters.
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Abstract not provided.
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The patent-pending ARG-US system uses customizable high-tech sensors and monitoring systems in conjunction with a remote network connection to provide easy and quick access to the status of nuclear and radiological facilities and storage containers. In a partnership with the Argonne National Laboratory and the Idaho National Laboratory, the research team are finding new ways to customize and test the limitations the ARG-US system. This presentation is for the student poster session.
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We are developing tools needed to enable the validation of the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM). In order to develop and test these tools, we have need of a robust, high-fidelity set of GLM proxy data. Many steps have been taken to ensure that the proxy data are high quality. LIS is the closest analog that exists for GLM, so it has been used extensively in developing the GLM proxy. We have verified the proxy data both statistically and algorithmically. The proxy data are pixel (event) data, called Level 1B. These data were then clustered into flashes by the Lightning Cluster-Filter Algorithm (LCFA), generating proxy Level 2 data. These were then compared with the data used to generate the proxy, and both the proxy data and the LCFA were validated. We have developed tools to allow us to visualize and compare the GLM proxy data with several other sources of lightning and other meteorological data (the so-called shallow-dive tool). The shallow-dive tool shows storm-level data and can ingest many different ground-based lightning detection networks, including: NLDN, LMA, WWLLN, and ENTLN. These are presented in a way such that it can be seen if the GLM is properly detecting the lightning in location and time comparable to the ground-based networks. Currently in development is the deep-dive tool, which will allow us to dive into the GLM data, down to flash, group and event level. This will allow us to assess performance in comparison with other data sources, and tell us if there are detection, timing, or geolocation problems. These tools will be compatible with the GLM Level-2 data format, so they can be used beginning on Day 0.
Summary This paper will present a robust workflow to address multiobjective optimization (MOO) of carbon dioxide (CO2)-enhanced oil recovery (EOR)-sequestration projects with a large number of operational control parameters. Farnsworth unit (FWU) field, a mature oil reservoir undergoing CO2 alternating water injection (CO2-WAG) EOR, will be used as a field case to validate the proposed optimization protocol. The expected outcome of this work would be a repository of Pareto-optimal solutions of multiple objective functions, including oil recovery, carbon storage volume, and project economics. FWU’s numerical model is used to demonstrate the proposed optimization workflow. Because using MOO requires computationally intensive procedures, machine-learning-based proxies are introduced to substitute for the high-fidelity model, thus reducing the total computation overhead. The vector machine regression combined with the Gaussian kernel (Gaussian-SVR) is used to construct proxies. An iterative self-adjusting process prepares the training knowledge base to develop robust proxies and minimizes computational time. The proxies’ hyperparameters will be optimally designed using Bayesian optimization to achieve better generalization performance. Trained proxies will be coupled with multiobjective particle swarm Optimization (MOPSO) protocol to construct the Pareto-front solution repository. The outcomes of this workflow will be a repository containing Pareto-optimal solutions of multiple objectives considered in the CO2-WAG project. The proposed optimization workflow will be compared with another established methodology using a multilayer neural network (MLNN) to validate its feasibility in handling MOO with a large number of parameters to control. Optimization parameters used include operational variables that might be used to control the CO2-WAG process, such as the duration of the water/gas injection period, producer bottomhole pressure (BHP) control, and water injection rate of each well included in the numerical model. It is proved that the workflow coupling Gaussian-SVR proxies and the iterative self-adjusting protocol is more computationally efficient. The MOO process is made more rapid by squeezing the size of the required training knowledge base while maintaining the high accuracy of the optimized results. The outcomes of the optimization study show promising results in successfully establishing the solution repository considering multiple objective functions. Results are also verified by validating the Pareto fronts with simulation results using obtained optimized control parameters. The outcome from this work could provide field operators an opportunity to design a CO2-WAG project using as many inputs as possible from the reservoir models. The proposed work introduces a novel concept that couples Gaussian-SVR proxies with a self-adjusting protocol to increase the computational efficiency of the proposed workflow and to guarantee the high accuracy of the obtained optimized results. More importantly, the workflow can optimize a large number of control parameters used in a complex CO2-WAG process, which greatly extends its utility in solving large-scale MOO problems in various projects with similar desired outcomes.