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LandScan Mosaic

The LandScan program at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), in collaboration with the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA), continues to deliver the most accurate and up to date global, high resolution gridded population data. Additionally, the latest advancements in the LandScan HD methodology led to reduced latency in development of rapid updates for geopolitical events. With momentum towards reporting more up to date population estimates, feedback from the user community expressed interest in reporting population estimates in ranges - whether to express a level of uncertainty or confirm to leadership and stakeholders the modeled data are estimates. Building upon the need to understand uncertainty or confidence in the modeled data and report ranges at the global scale, LandScan Mosaic was developed. LandScan Mosaic represents the next generation of high-resolution population modeling, building upon the established success of previous LandScan HD iterations. While LandScan HD employed a deterministic big data fusion approach, LandScan Mosaic enhances this methodology by integrating advanced machine learning techniques to impute missing, yet crucial, population model parameters. This advancement allows for probabilistic modeling of building occupancy and population distribution, incorporating uncertainty quantification through Monte Carlo sampling methods. By combining big data fusion with machine learning-driven imputation and stochastic modeling, LandScan Mosaic provides a more comprehensive and robust representation of population dynamics. LandScan Mosaic will be following the in the footsteps of its longstanding counterpart LandScan Global and releasing a global gridded population raster, at the 3-arcsecond resolution. This technical report documents the current stage of development of LandScan Mosaic, detailing the methodologies and data sources behind the modeling. Stakeholders are encouraged to use this document as an authoritative reference for insight into Mosaic’s data development processes. However, readers should note that LandScan Mosaic remains in a late-stage research and development phase, and methodologies and data presented here are subject to refinements ahead of the anticipated global release in Summer 2025. Feedback and inquiries from users and stakeholders are welcomed as we continue to refine and enhance this important population resource.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Mineral-Ground Micro-Fibrillated Cellulose Reinforcement for Polymer Compounds

Additive Manufacturing (AM) is quickly becoming a mainstream, energy efficient manufacturing technique for complex and custom components. ORNL has taken polymer AM into the next level with Big Area Additive Manufacturing (BAAM). However, we need to develop the strength of AM materials (specifically polymers) to satisfy the mechanical requirements of structural parts. Also, it is crucial that the developed process can easily be scaled up to have a significant impact in the manufacturing industry of US. Furthermore, renewable, bio-derived AM materials are desirable from a sustainability perspective. In the first phase of this project the mechanical properties of polymer AM components were significantly improved developing a micro fibrillated cellulose (MFC)-reinforced composite material system that is derived from biomass and compatible with BAAM. Unfortunately, the improvements were observed only with freeze-dried MFCs, and freeze-drying is a very slow process and is not industrially scalable. Furthermore, MFCs were not available in large quantities at low cost. However, FiberLean has reached 12,000 tons/year capacity (60,000 tons/year including the minerals). FiberLean offers MFCs at a scale and order of magnitude lower price than current market participants. With their recently developed novel (patent pending) drying process FiberLean can achieve over 50% solid content commercially. In the 2nd phase of the project, the original objective was to investigate this new novel drying process along with compounding with different formulations to optimize and adapt to large scale additive manufacturing. However, the compounded materials prepared via this approach were very brittle and demonstrated poor mechanical performance. Therefore, the project was focused more on a scalable chemical surface modification of MFCs to enable their drying via conventional oven process with minimal agglomeration and better dispersion in PLA polymer matrix. Fiberlean and ORNL have worked together in this project to develop mineral-ground microfibrillated cellulose (MFC) - reinforced additive manufacturing feedstock materials with significantly improved mechanical properties. Properly surface modified and dried Fiberlean cellulose microfibrils led to tensile strength increases up to ~40% and elastic modulus increases up to 70% with the addition of 30% MFC into PLA matrix. The work has led to a high impact journal article and a provisional patent. Opportunities for a follow up work to demonstrate the technology in large scale and application of it to AM applications are currently being searched.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Tailored mesoporous structures of lignin-derived nano-carbons for multiple applications

This work uses a one-step KOH activation for lignin precursors to produce ultra-high mesoporous activated carbons (ACs) with an unprecedented combination of the surface area of 3207 m 2 g -1 and mesopore ratio of 76%. The ACs are applied for supercapacitors (SCs) and methylene blue (MB) adsorption. The capacitance of the SCs in the three-electrode system reaches 812.3 F g -1 and demonstrates a remarkable maximum MB adsorption capacity of 1250 mg g -1 . By modifying the process conditions, the mesopore ratio of ACs could be controlled from 10% to 80%. Compared with one-step activation, a two-step method produced microporous carbons with a lower surface area of 1227 m 2 g -1 and a high micropore ratio of 73%. The capacitance of SCs with two-step ACs reached 228.1 F g -1 and the maximum adsorption capacity of 476.19 mg g -1 for MB adsorption. The two-step method limited the surface area but had a higher oxygen surface functionality, benefiting its electrochemical performance. A techno-economic analysis reveals that the one-step KOH activation-based process develops ACs with a minimum selling price of $7648/ton. In conclusion, this work demonstrates tuning the processing-structure-property-performance relationship of lignin-based ACs to make an economically viable domestic carbon source.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Cloud Radiative Effects on MJO Development in DYNAMO

Observed Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) events are examined with the aid of regional model simulations to understand the role of cloud radiative effects in the MJO development. The importance of this role is demonstrated by the absence of MJO in the model simulations that contain no cloud radiative effects. Comparisons of model simulations with and without the cloud radiative effects and observation help identify the major processes arising from those effects. Those processes develop essentially from heating in the upper-troposphere due to shortwave absorption within anvil clouds in the upper troposphere and the convergence of longwave radiation in the middle-upper troposphere, with a peak at 300-hPa, during deep convection. First, that heating adds extra buoyancy and accelerates the rising motion in the upper troposphere in deep convection. The vertical acceleration in the upper troposphere creates a vacuum effect and demands for more deep convection to develop. Second, in response to that demand and required by mass balance arises the large-scale horizontal and vertical mass, moisture, and energy convergence. It strengthens deep convection and, with the feedback from continuing cloud radiative effect, creates conditions that can perpetuate deep convection and MJO development. That perpetuation does not occur however because those processes arising from the cloud radiative heating in the upper troposphere stabilize the troposphere till it supports no further deep convection. Weakening deep convection reduces cloud radiative effects. The subsequent reduction of the vacuum effect in the upper troposphere diminishes deep convection completing an MJO cycle. These results advance our understanding of the development of the MJO in the radiative-convective system over warm waters in the tropics. They show that while the embryo of intraseasonal oscillation may exist in the system its growth/development is largely dependent on cloud radiative effects and feedbacks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

National Cost-Effectiveness of ANSI/ASHRAE/IES Standard 90.1-2022

The purpose of this analysis is to examine the cost-effectiveness of the 2022 edition of ANSI/ASHRAE/IES Standard 90.1, which is developed by the ASHRAE Standard Standing Project Committee (SSPC) 90.1 and is the model energy standard for all commercial buildings and multifamily residential buildings over three floors. PNNL analyzed the cost-effectiveness of changes in Standard 90.1-2022, compared to the previous 90.1-2019 edition, as applied in commercial buildings across the United States. In reviewing proposed changes to Standard 90.1, the SSPC considers the cost-effectiveness of individual changes (addenda). Due to the continuous nature of the development process, however, ASHRAE does not evaluate the entire package of addenda from one edition of the standard to the next, which is of particular interest to adopting state and local governments. Providing states with an analysis of cost-effectiveness facilitates a more comprehensive understanding of the impacts associated with updated model energy codes, informs the state decision-making process and its authorities, and ultimately encourages greater adoption of updated energy codes. This information also informs the development of future editions of Standard 90.1.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

BETO 2021 Peer Review - Catalytic Upgrading of Pyrolysis Vapors 2.3.1.314

Catalytic fast pyrolysis (CFP) is a versatile pathway for the direct liquefaction of biomass and waste carbon sources to generate a stabilized bio-oil intermediate that can be further processed into renewable fuels, chemicals, and materials. The objective of this project is advance the CFP state-of-technology through integrated catalyst and process development, expand market responsiveness by creating routes to novel co-products, and provide experimental data to inform process modelling and scale-up activities. Research advancements over the past two years include reducing analytical uncertainty by achieving 100 ± 1% carbon balances during reaction testing with woody biomass, improving process efficiency by achieving a 4x increase in catalyst cycle length, demonstrating compatibility with waste feedstocks, and confirming process durability for 100+ reaction cycles. Additionally, this project supported a comprehensive pathway review to evaluate scale-up needs. This review resulted in the early identification of technical risks and informed proactive planning for the BETO 2022 Verification. Other impacts from this project include generation of broadly enabling scientific knowledge (14 publications/18 presentations since 2019), engagement with industry partners (e.g., Johnson Matthey and ExxonMobil), and identification of a promising pathway to market that addresses emerging demands for biogenic refinery feedstocks.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

BETO 2021 Peer Review - Overview of the Chemical Catalysis for Bioenergy Consortium

Catalysis plays a central role in converting biomass and carbon-rich waste feedstocks into fuels and chemicals; however, critical catalysis challenges exist that are limiting commercialization of emerging bioenergy technologies. By leveraging unique U.S. Department of Energy National Laboratory capabilities and expertise, the Chemical Catalysis for Bioenergy consortium seeks to overcome these catalysis challenges and accelerate the catalyst and process development cycle. The foundation of the consortium consists of an integrated and collaborative portfolio of catalytic technologies and enabling capabilities, which positions ChemCatBio to address both technology-specific and overarching catalysis challenges across the development cycle from discovery to scale-up. The core catalysis projects target technological advancements for specific conversion processes, such as catalytic upgrading of biochemical process intermediates, catalytic fast pyrolysis, C1 and C2 upgrading, and electrochemical CO2 reduction, while the enabling technologies provide access to world-class capabilities and expertise in computational modeling, materials synthesis, advanced in situ and in operando catalyst characterization, and catalyst design tools.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Automated phase segmentation and quantification of high-resolution TEM image for alloy design

In the alloy design and development process, a wealth of atomically resolved structural high-resolution transmission electron microscopy (HRTEM) images are produced. Identifying the different nano-precipitate phases and tracking their evolution under various compositions and during manufacturing or post-processing requires hundreds of HRTEM images and thousands of precipitates. The nanoscopic phase information labeling and analysis purely relies on humans are prohibitively costly and time-consuming, sometimes not reliable because of the lack of authoritative knowledge. Here, in this work, we develop a novel unsupervised machine learning approach coupled with adaptive computer vision techniques with features in the Fourier space to automatically determine the number of phases and segment/quantify the phases with nanoscale resolution, allowing for quantitative correlation between nanostructure formation, processing and functional properties. To automate the phase extraction/quantification and ascertain its applicability, we have applied the developed framework to the HRTEM images from several alloy systems, processing conditions, image magnifications, and phase types and morphologies (precipitates, nano-twins, stacking faults, crystalline matrix, and amorphous structures) for verification. This study paves the road for compression, visualization, and translation of raw image structural data into physically relevant information in real-time with minimal human supervision. It shows the promise of enabling high-throughput materials characterization for the acceleration of alloy manufacturing and design.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Data Services for Visualization and Analysis - ASC Level II Milestone (7186)

A new in transit Data Service is presented and compared to the traditional file-based workflow and the newly refactored in situ Catalyst workflow. Each workflow is enabled by the IOSS mesh interface equipped with data management layers for Exodus and CGNS (file-based), Catalyst (in situ), and FAODEL (in transit). FAODEL is a distributed object store that can transmit data across MPI allocations. Catalyst is a Para View-based visualization capability developed as part of the CSSE Data Services effort. The workflows considered here take SPARC data into Catalyst for visualization post-processing. Although still in unoptimized form, we show that the in transit approach is a viable alternative to file-based and in situ workflows and offers several advantages to both simulation and post-processing developers. Since IOSS is a mature interface with wide adoption across Sandia and externally, each workflow can be reconfigured to use different simulations that generate mesh data and post-processing tools that consume it.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Using X-ray radiography to study oxygen flow in a proton exchange membrane electrolyzer operating under balanced pressure conditions

Of the various water electrolyzer technologies, the proton exchange membrane electrolyzer (PEMWE) is one of the best solutions for producing clean hydrogen without releasing CO 2 . In order to allow for widespread use of clean hydrogen, it is necessary to decrease its cost, which is intrinsically related to system operation. Current PEMWE plants operate in differential mode, directly pressurizing hydrogen and benefiting from thermodynamic compression, which increases overall system efficiency. However, high differential pressure above 30 bar can cause membrane stress, resulting in membrane creeping and failure. Pressurizing the water and operating at balanced pressure allows hydrogen to be produced at higher pressures while preserving the integrity of the membrane and porous layers. Nevertheless, the impact of pressurizing water on PEMWE performance must be better understood to maximize performance under balanced pressure conditions. Here, this study examined the impact of water pressure on two-phase flow. A high-pressure electrolyzer setup was developed to perform operando X-ray radiography and examine oxygen transport with high temporal resolution. The imaging segmentation process, developed to capture bubble properties in the channel, was applied to a specific experiment. The results clearly showed that as pressure increased up to 30 bars, the initial bubbly flow transitioned to slug flow, which led to channel saturation with oxygen. This work demonstrates that two-phase flow in an electrolyzer can be studied using X-ray radiography, which has the advantages of fast measurements and the ability to probe dense materials, such as those required for pressurized electrolyzers.

Balanced high pressure operation↗

Cryo-electron Microscopy of Adeno-associated Virus

Adeno-associated virus (AAV) has a single-stranded DNA genome encapsidated in a small icosahedrally symmetric protein shell with 60 subunits. AAV is the leading delivery vector in emerging gene therapy treatments for inherited disorders, so its structure and molecular interactions with human hosts are of intense interest. A wide array of electron microscopic approaches have been used to visualize the virus and its complexes, depending on the scientific question, technology available, and amenability of the sample. Approaches range from subvolume tomographic analyses of complexes with large and flexible host proteins to detailed analysis of atomic interactions within the virus and with small ligands at resolutions as high as 1.6 Å. Analyses have led to the reclassification of glycan receptors as attachment factors, to structures with a new-found receptor protein, to identification of the epitopes of antibodies, and a new understanding of possible neutralization mechanisms. AAV is now well-enough characterized that it has also become a model system for EM methods development. Heralding a new era, cryo-EM is now also being deployed as an analytic tool in the process development and production quality control of high value pharmaceutical biologics, namely AAV vectors.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

National Cost-Effectiveness of ANSI/ASHRAE/IES Standard 90.1–2019

The purpose of this analysis is to examine the cost-effectiveness of the 2019 edition of ANSI/ASHRAE/IES Standard 90.1, which is developed by the ASHRAE Standard Standing Project Committee (SSPC) 90.1, and is the model energy standard for all commercial buildings and multifamily residential buildings over three floors. PNNL analyzed the cost-effectiveness of changes in Standard 90.1-2019, compared to the previous 90.1-2016 edition, as applied in commercial buildings across the United States. In reviewing proposed changes to Standard 90.1, the SSPC considers the cost-effectiveness of individual changes (addenda). Due to the continuous nature of the development process, however, ASHRAE does not evaluate the entire package of addenda from one edition of the standard to the next, which is of particular interest to adopting state and local governments. Providing states with an analysis of cost-effectiveness facilitates a more comprehensive understanding of the impacts associated with updated model energy codes, informs the state decision-making process and its authorities, and ultimately encourages greater adoption of updated of energy codes. This information also informs the development of future editions of Standard 90.1.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Recovery of Zr from ZrCl 4 by Electrolysis in Fused Salts and Ionic Liquids: Literature Review and Test Plan

This report reviewed the current status on the research and development of Zr electrodeposition in high temperature molten salts and room temperature ionic liquids from ZrCl 4 , which is the product of the chlorination process developed for recycling the Zr claddings of the spent nuclear fuels. Due to the pyrophoricity issue, the Zr metal product from the electrodeposition process is desired to be of coarse, dense crystalline or plates (instead of powder or loose, fine crystals) that are not to be easily oxidized. The findings based on the literature review are included in the report.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Carbon Ore-Derived Critical Materials for Clean Energy Technologies

Conference presentation at American Institute of Chemical Engineers (AIChE) Annual Meeting, San Diego, California, October 27–31, 2024. Trends in the manufacture of electric vehicles that use graphite-based LIBs are rising steeply in the United States and globally, but the U.S. domestic supply chains for graphite, the largest component in an LIB by mass, is severely limited and faces complicated geopolitical dynamics with foreign sources. Consequently, the United States has designated graphite as a critical mineral to focus attention and resources to develop technologies to meet the challenge of limited domestic graphite supply chains. Results obtained so far based on the UCOP process have successfully validated the technology at the laboratory scale, with the produced graphite material showing up to 95% degree of graphitization, high carbon purity of ~99.98%, residual ash content of ≤0.02%, negligible moisture, low trace elements, and high electrochemical stability. These results suggest that the emerging UCOP technology is a promising approach to effectively synthesize high-quality graphite from abundant coal and coal waste resources in the United States to create a sustainable domestic critical graphite supply chain. A brief description of the status of UCOP process development and representative results will be presented.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Compositional Reasoning for Hierarchical State Machines

Harel statecharts and its derivatives are popular graphical languages for specifying discrete control systems via hierarchical state machines. Separately, there has been a long line of work on specifying concurrent systems with process calculi which come equipped with an algebraic theory, the ability reason compositionally about various temporal properties, and strong type systems. While these two approaches to modeling systems are tantalizingly similar, the integrated reasoning principles that exist for process calculi have not been demonstrated in hierarchical state machines. A key issue is that operational theories for process calculi do not behave like control systems, and thus, there is virtually no tool support for modeling control systems with such languages. For a control system designer, bringing the integrated, more scalable reasoning from the process calculi to state-machine languages would enable the specification of more complex systems and a more modular systems development process. Our insight is that we can recover many important results from the process calculi in hierarchical state machines with local scope. We employ a structural operational semantics, which is ubiquitous in process and 𝜆-calculi but uncommon in hierarchical statemachine formalizations, to enable inductive reasoning about behavior. Taking inspiration from the structure of process calculi metatheories, we define a calculus of refinement and equivalence that we prove sound with respect to local notion of (bi)simulation. Furthermore, we prove that the calculus preserves the behavioral properties of reactivity, observational determinism, traces, and linear temporal properties. Our results are mechanized in the Rocq proof assistant.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Supporting Bioproducts Industry Growth with a System Dynamics Decision-Support Tool

A bio-based economy requires chemical products as well as fuels to be produced from biomass. Although a variety of universities, government agencies, start-ups and established firms have engaged in bioproduct development, many projects have failed to reach the point of commercialization and commercialized bioproducts struggle to capture and maintain market share. To date, there has been no general research into the factors that contribute to bioproduct failure or success. This work presents the Bioproduct Transition Dynamics (BTD) system dynamics model, a decision-support tool that simulates the bioproduct development process from pre-piloting research through construction of the first commercial-scale plant, as well as the processes of obtaining funding from investors and government agencies. The core of the BTD is a feedback loop between bioproduct developers and funders, which relates development progress measured with indicators such as net present value to funders’ decisions to continue investing. External factors such as feedstock prices, market size and growth, and the existence of bioproduct consumers also influence a development project’s chances of receiving follow-on funding. Virtually any bioproduct can be represented with the BTD: direct replacements, performance-advantaged products, niche and commodity markets can all be modeled. The goal of the BTD project is to inform decisions made by developers in both established firms and start-ups, investors, government agencies, and other stakeholders interested in growing the nascent U.S. bioproducts industry. This talk will cover the general structure and functionality of the BTD, and present results from an analysis performed with the BTD to demonstrate its use as a decision-support tool and the insights it can provide. The goal of the analysis is to identify the most critical factors that lead to direct replacement and performance-advantaged bioproduct projects emerging successfully from the “Valley of Death”, and to determine if these factors differ between the two bioproduct types.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Bubble explosion induced melt pool instabilities in electron beam melting of aluminum alloy

Electron beam melting (EBM) is an additive manufacturing technology that can process materials and manufacture components otherwise impossible or uneconomical. However, defects, including porosity and surface irregularities, are widely reported in EBM-built components, and their formation mechanisms are not fully understood. Here, using in-situ high-speed synchrotron X-ray imaging, we reveal that bubble explosions in Al6061 during EBM induce melt pool instabilities contributing to defect formation. The melt pool and keyhole evolve through three stages: (1) initial formation of a melt pool, (2) subsurface bubble formation and explosion, and (3) periodic keyhole oscillation. During scanning, periodic bubble explosions can eject molten liquid as spatters and disturb the vapor depression and melt pool, contributing to surface humping, that may trigger lack-of-fusion defects in subsequent layers. The physical insights we report could provide guidance for EBM machine development, process innovation, alloy design and model development.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Dissolution of Additively Manufactured Mo Disks and Structures for Accelerator Based Production of Mo-99

The press-and-sinter approach for production of Mo targets has been successfully tested and demonstrated. The main advantage of this process is that it uses readily available technology and tools that have been tuned for production of various metal and metal oxide targets. However, certain target design specifications, such as dimensional accuracy of the diameter and thickness of the disks, are required for proper fit into a target holder and therefore place strict tolerances on sintered Mo disks intended for accelerator production. Furthermore, having a target composed of multiple disks poses certain challenges for post-irradiation processing, where there is a potential for spillage of individual disks during the manipulation for dissolution inside a processing hot cell. Additive manufacturing (AM), also referred to as 3D printing, provides capabilities to design and build a single-piece Mo target that provides the opportunity for better geometry for optimized production of Mo-99, improved cooling capability, and safer post-irradiation handling. A drawback of AM Mo structures is roughness of finished surfaces, which could reduce the effectiveness of gas cooling systems. Process development for AM Mo structures using selective laser melting is described in work by Gibson and Lowden. For post-irradiation processing, it is important to look at the dissolution behavior of AM Mo structures in comparison to readily dissolved press-and-sinter Mo targets. The dissolution behavior of press-and-sinter targets has been well documented in our previous reports. In this report, we discuss results of dissolution experiments conducted with AM Mo disks and structures (provided by Oak Ridge National Laboratory [ORNL]) in 50% hydrogen peroxide (H 2 O 2 ).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗