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Results for “probability and statistical methods”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Kinetic theory of particle-in-cell simulation plasma and the ensemble averaging technique

Abstract We derive the kinetic theory of fluctuations in physically and numerically stable particle-in-cell (PIC) simulations of electrostatic plasmas. The starting point is the single-time correlation at the start of the simulation between the statistical fluctuations of the weighted densities of macroparticle centers in the plasma particle phase-space. The fluctuations are associated with different initial conditions, typically due to the random initial conditions (in velocity space) of the macroparticles/simulation plasma, assigned according to their initial distribution of probability. The single-time correlations at all time steps and in each spatial grid cell are then determined from the Laplace–Fourier transforms of the discretized Klimontovich-like equation for the macroparticles and Maxwell’s equations for the fields, as computed by modern PIC codes. We recover the expressions for the electrostatic field and the plasma particle density fluctuation autocorrelation spectra as well as the kinetic equations describing the average evolution of PIC-simulated plasma particles, first derived by Langdon (1970b Proc. 4th Conf. Numerical Simulation of Plasmas ) using a test macroparticle approach perturbing a discretized Vlasovian plasma and then averaging the obtained physical quantity over the initial macroparticle velocity distribution. We generalize and extend these results to the modern algorithms in PIC codes using arbitrary macroparticle weights. Analytical estimates of statistical fluctuation amplitudes are derived as a function of the plasma simulation parameters, using the central limit theorem in the limit of a large number of macroparticles per cell. The theory is then used to analyze the ensemble averaging technique of PIC simulations where statistical averages are performed over ensembles of PIC simulations, modeling the same plasma physics problem but using different statistical realizations of the initial distribution functions of the macroparticles. This method is illustrated by linear Landau damping uncovering (from noise, which is usually considered numerical) the physical fluctuations driven by a single small amplitude electrostatic wave perturbing a PIC simulation plasma in equilibrium.

fluctuations correlations↗
DOE OSTI2025

Combining Machine Learning and Comparative Effectiveness Methodology to Study Primary Care Pharmacotherapy Pathways for Veterans With Depression

Our objective is to demonstrate an innovative method combining machine learning with comparative effectiveness research techniques and to investigate a hitherto unstudied question about the effectiveness of common prescribing patterns. For Operation Enduring Freedom/Operation Iraqi Freedom veterans with major depressive disorder, we generate pharmacotherapy pathways (of antidepressants) using process mining and machine learning. We select the medication episodes that were started at subtherapeutic doses by the first assigned primary care physician and observe the paths that those medication episodes follow. Using 2-stage least squares, we test the effectiveness of starting at a low dose and staying low for longer versus ramping up fast while balancing observable and unobservable characteristics of patients and providers through instrumental variables. We leverage predetermined provider practice patterns as instruments. We collected outpatient pharmacy data for selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors and selective norepinephrine reuptake inhibitors, patient and provider characteristics (as control variables), and the instruments for our cohort. All data were extracted for the period between 2006 and 2020. There is a statistically significant positive effect (0.68, 95% CI 0.11–1.25) of “ramping up fast” on engagement in care. When we examine the effect of “ramping up slow”, we see an insignificant negative impact on engagement in care (−0.82, 95% CI −1.89 to 0.25). As expected, the probability of drop-out also seems to have a negative effect on engagement in care (−0.39, 95% CI −0.94 to 0.17). We further validate these results by testing with medication possession ratios calculated periodically as an alternative engagement in care metric. Our findings contradict the “Start low, go slow” adage, indicating that ramping up the dose of an antidepressant faster has a significantly positive effect on engagement in care for our population.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Convective shells in the interior of Cepheid variable stars: Overshooting models based on hydrodynamic simulations

Context. Because Cepheid variable stars have long been used as a cosmic benchmark for scaling distances in our Galaxy and beyond, the accuracy of stellar evolution models for Cepheids have wide-reaching effects. However, our understanding of the dynamics in the interiors of these physically complex stars is limited. Aims. Our goal is to provide a detailed multi-dimensional picture of hydrodynamic convection and convective boundary mixing in the interior of Cepheids. Methods. Using the Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics (MESA), we studied the structure of intermediate-mass stars that cross the instability strip. Then, we performed two-dimensional hydrodynamic simulations of six stars with the fully compressible Multidimensional Stellar Implicit Code (MUSIC). Our simulations did not model the radial pulsations but focused on the interior structure of this family of stars. We developed and applied a new statistical analysis to examine convection and convective boundary mixing in the interior of these stellar simulations. Results. Based on a grid of MESA models, we demonstrated that a common structure for intermediate mass Cepheids includes an interior convective shell as well as a thin outer convective envelope. Using the extreme value theory approach to analyze our MUSIC simulation data, we found that overshooting above the convective shell fills the space between these convectively unstable layers. We developed a new statistical analysis that provides a clearer picture of how overshooting fills this layer; it also allowed us to formulate a detailed comparison between overshooting above and below the convective shell. Our analysis effectively decomposes the overshooting layer into two layers: a weak overshooting layer and a strong overshooting layer. Statistically, this is accomplished by decomposing the strongly non-Gaussian probability density function into a mixture of gamma distributions. Using our mixture model, we showed that the ratio of overshooting lengths above and below the convective shell depends directly on the radial extent of the convective shell as well as its depth in the star. We proposed a new form for the diffusion coefficient that addresses the need for overlapping overshooting layers between convective shells. We introduced the idea of a “super-mixing layer” where overshooting from both the convective shell and the convective envelope results in efficient mixing and could be viewed as merging the two adjacent convective zones.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian uncertainty quantification for nuclear matter incompressibility

Within a Bayesian statistical framework using the standard Skyrme-Hartree-Fock model, the maximum a posteriori (MAP) values and uncertainties of nuclear matter incompressibility and isovector interaction parameters are inferred from the experimental data of giant resonances and neutron-skin thicknesses of typical heavy nuclei. Furthermore, with the uncertainties of the isovector interaction parameters constrained by the data of the isovector giant dipole resonance and the neutron-skin thickness, we have obtained K 0 = 223$^{+7}_{–8}$ MeV at 68% confidence level using the data of the isoscalar giant monopole resonance in 208 Pb measured at the Research Center for Nuclear Physics (RCNP), Japan, and at the Texas A&M University, USA. Although the corresponding 120 Sn data gives a MAP value for K 0 about 5 MeV smaller than the 208 Pb data, there are significant overlaps in their posterior probability distribution functions.

190 ≤ A ≤ 219↗
DOE OSTI2024

Computationally efficient and error aware surrogate construction for numerical solutions of subsurface flow through porous media

Limiting the injection rate to restrict the pressure below a threshold at a critical location can be an important goal of simulations that model the subsurface pressure between injection and extraction wells. The pressure is approximated by the solution of Darcy’s partial differential equation for a given permeability field. The subsurface permeability is modeled as a random field since it is known only up to statistical properties. This induces uncertainty in the computed pressure. Solving the partial differential equation for an ensemble of random permeability simulations enables estimating a probability distribution for the pressure at the critical location. These simulations are computationally expensive, and practitioners often need rapid online guidance for real-time pressure management. An ensemble of numerical partial differential equation solutions is used to construct a Gaussian process regression model that can quickly predict the pressure at the critical location as a function of the extraction rate and permeability realization. The Gaussian process surrogate analyzes the ensemble of numerical pressure solutions at the critical location as noisy observations of the true pressure solution, enabling robust inference using the conditional Gaussian process distribution. Our first novel contribution is to identify a sampling methodology for the random environment and matching kernel technology for which fitting the Gaussian process regression model scales as O ( n log n ) instead of the typical O ( n 3 ) rate in the number of samples n used to fit the surrogate. The surrogate model allows almost instantaneous predictions for the pressure at the critical location as a function of the extraction rate and permeability realization. Our second contribution is a novel algorithm to calibrate the uncertainty in the surrogate model to the discrepancy between the true pressure solution of Darcy’s equation and the numerical solution. Finally, although our method is derived for building a surrogate for the solution of Darcy’s equation with a random permeability field, the framework broadly applies to solutions of other partial differential equations with random coefficients.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Extension of the Hauser-Feshbach fission fragment decay model to multichance fission

The Hauser-Feshbach fission fragment decay model, HF 3 D, which calculates the statistical decay of fission fragments, has been expanded to include multichance fission, up to neutron incident energies of 20 MeV. The deterministic decay takes as input prescission quantities—fission probabilities and the average energy causing fission—and postscission quantities—yields in mass, charge, total kinetic energy, spin, and parity. From these fission fragment initial conditions, the full decay is followed through both prompt and delayed particle emissions, allowing for the calculation of prompt neutron and γ properties, such as multiplicity and energy distributions, both independent and cumulative fission yields, and delayed neutron observables. Here, we describe the implementation of multichance fission in the HF 3 D model, and show an example of prompt and delayed quantities beyond first-chance fission, using the example of neutron-induced fission on 235 U. This expansion represents significant progress in consistently modeling the emission of prompt and delayed particles from fissile systems.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Scrambling Dynamics with Imperfections in a Solvable Model

We study how probes of quantum scrambling dynamics respond to two kinds of imperfections -- unequal forward and backward evolutions and decoherence -- in a solvable Brownian circuit model. We calculate a ``renormalized'' out-of-time-order correlator (ROTOC) in the model with $N$ qubits, and we show that the circuit-averaged ROTOC is controlled by an effective probability distribution in operator weight space which obeys a system of $N$ non-linear equations of motion. These equations can be easily solved numerically for large system sizes which are beyond the reach of exact methods. Moreover, for an operator initially concentrated on weight one $w_0=1$, we provide an exact solution to the equations in the thermodynamic limit of many qubits that is valid for all times, all non-vanishing perturbation strengths $p\gtrsim 1/\sqrt{N}$, and all decoherence strengths. We also show that a generic initial condition $w_0 >1$ leads to a metastable state that eventually collapses to the $w_0=1$ case after a lifetime $\sim \log(N/w_0)$. Our results highlight situations where it is still possible to extract the unperturbed chaos exponent even in the presence of imperfections, and we comment on the applications of our results to existing experiments with nuclear spins and to future scrambling experiments.

FOS: Physical sciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Aemulus Project. VI. Emulation of Beyond-standard Galaxy Clustering Statistics to Improve Cosmological Constraints

Abstract There is untapped cosmological information in galaxy redshift surveys in the nonlinear regime. In this work, we use the Aemulus suite of cosmological N -body simulations to construct Gaussian process emulators of galaxy clustering statistics at small scales (0.1–50 h −1 Mpc) in order to constrain cosmological and galaxy bias parameters. In addition to standard statistics—the projected correlation function w p ( r p ), the redshift-space monopole of the correlation function ξ 0 ( s ), and the quadrupole ξ 2 ( s )—we emulate statistics that include information about the local environment, namely the underdensity probability function P U ( s ) and the density-marked correlation function M ( s ). This extends the model of Aemulus III for redshift-space distortions by including new statistics sensitive to galaxy assembly bias. In recovery tests, we find that the beyond-standard statistics significantly increase the constraining power on cosmological parameters of interest: including P U ( s ) and M ( s ) improves the precision of our constraints on Ω m by 27%, σ 8 by 19%, and the growth of structure parameter, f σ 8 , by 12% compared to standard statistics. We additionally find that scales below ∼6 h −1 Mpc contain as much information as larger scales. The density-sensitive statistics also contribute to constraining halo occupation distribution parameters and a flexible environment-dependent assembly bias model, which is important for extracting the small-scale cosmological information as well as understanding the galaxy–halo connection. This analysis demonstrates the potential of emulating beyond-standard clustering statistics at small scales to constrain the growth of structure as a test of cosmic acceleration.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Enabling probabilistic learning on manifolds through double diffusion maps

Here, we present a generative learning framework for probabilistic sampling that extends Probabilistic Learning on Manifolds (PLoM), which is designed to generate statistically consistent realizations of a random vector in a finite-dimensional Euclidean space, informed by a (representative) set of observations. In its original form, PLoM constructs a reduced-order probabilistic model by combining three main components: (a) kernel density estimation to approximate the underlying probability measure, (b) Diffusion Maps to characterize the manifold of the data, and (c) a reduced-order Itô Stochastic Differential Equation (ISDE) to sample from the learned distribution. However, its sampling dynamics are posed in the ambient space and the retained number of reduced coordinates is chosen by projection-reconstruction error. In practice, this often (i) requires more coordinates than the data’s intrinsic dimension to achieve stable sampling and (ii) lacks a smooth, basis-independent lifting back to the data domain; moreover, standard Diffusion Maps emphasize harmonic eigenfunctions and can miss non-harmonic latent structure. We address these limitations by decoupling geometry learning from sampling: a first Diffusion Maps pass identifies non-harmonic coordinates on which we formulate a full-order ISDE directly in the latent space, while Double Diffusion Maps captures multiscale geometric features and Geometric Harmonics (GH) learns a smooth lifting map to the ambient variables that is independent of the particular diffusion basis. This hybrid design preserves the system’s dynamical richness with a compact geometric representation and enables principled out-of-sample inference. The effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method are illustrated through two numerical studies: one based on data generated from two-dimensional Hermite polynomial functions and another based on high-fidelity simulations of a detonation wave in a reactive flow.

Double diffusion maps↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantitative Representativeness and Constituency of the Long-Term Agroecosystem Research Network and Analysis of Complementarity with Existing Ecological Networks

Abstract Studies conducted at sites across ecological research networks usually strive to scale their results to larger areas, trying to reach conclusions that are valid throughout larger enclosing regions. Network representativeness and constituency can show how well conditions at sampling locations represent conditions also found elsewhere and can be used to help scale-up results over larger regions. Multivariate statistical methods have been used to design networks and select sites that optimize regional representation, thereby maximizing the value of datasets and research. However, in networks created from already established sites, an immediate challenge is to understand how well existing sites represent the range of environments in the whole area of interest. We performed an analysis to show how well sites in the USDA Long-Term Agroecosystem Research (LTAR) Network represent all agricultural working lands within the conterminous United States (CONUS). Our analysis of 18 LTAR sites, based on 15 climatic and edaphic characteristics, produced maps of representativeness and constituency. Representativeness of the LTAR sites was quantified through an exhaustive pairwise Euclidean distance calculation in multivariate space, between the locations of experiments within each LTAR site and every 1 km cell across the CONUS. Network representativeness is from the perspective of all CONUS locations, but we also considered the perspective from each LTAR site. For every LTAR site, we identified the region that is best represented by that particular site—its constituency—as the set of 1 km grid locations best represented by the environmental drivers at that particular LTAR site. Representativeness shows how well the combination of characteristics at each CONUS location was represented by the LTAR sites’ environments, while constituency shows which LTAR site was the closest match for each location. LTAR representativeness was good across most of the CONUS. Representativeness for croplands was higher than for grazinglands, probably because croplands have more specific environmental criteria. Constituencies resemble ecoregions but have their environmental conditions “centered” on those at particular existing LTAR sites. Constituency of LTAR sites can be used to prioritize the locations of experimental research at or even within particular sites, or to identify the extents that can likely be included when generalizing knowledge across larger regions of the CONUS. Sites with a large constituency have generalist environments, while those with smaller constituency areas have more specialized environmental combinations. These “specialist” sites are the best representatives for smaller, more unusual areas. The potential of sharing complementary sites from the Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) Network and the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) to boost representativeness was also explored. LTAR network representativeness would benefit from borrowing several NEON sites and the Sevilleta LTER site. Later network additions must include such specialist sites that are targeted to represent unique missing environments. While this analysis exhaustively considered principal environmental characteristics related to production on working lands, we did not consider the focal agronomic systems under study, or their socio-economic context.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Performance evaluation of cosmic ray muon trajectory estimation algorithms

Muons, being elementary particles with minimal interaction with nuclear materials and abundant at sea level, have sparked interest in utilizing them for imaging various applications, such as mining [Borselli et al., Sci. Rep. 12, 22329 (2022)], volcano imaging [Nagamine et al., Nucl. Instrum. Meth. A, 356, 585(1995)], and underground tunnel detection [Guardincerri et al., Pure Appl. Geophys. 174, 2133 (2017)]. Recently, their use in nuclear nonproliferation and safeguard verification has gained attention, particularly in cargo screening for nuclear waste smuggling [Baesso et al., J. Instrum. 9, C10041 (2014)], source localization [L. J. Schultz et al., Nucl. Instrum. Meth. A 519, 687 (2004)], and locating nuclear fuel debris in reactors [Borozdin et al., Phys. Rev. Let. 109, 152501 (2012)]. However, the resolution of muon image reconstruction techniques is limited due to multiple Coulomb scattering (MCS) within the target object. To achieve robust muon tomography, it is crucial to develop efficient and flexible physics-based algorithms that can model the MCS process accurately and estimate the most probable trajectory of muons as they pass through the target object. To address this limitation, in this study, a novel algorithmic approach utilizing the Bayesian probability theory and Gaussian approximation of MCS is chosen. Different energy levels, materials, and target sizes were considered in the evaluations. The results demonstrate that the Generalized Muon Trajectory Estimation (GMTE) algorithm offers significant improvements over currently used algorithms. Across all test scenarios, the GMTE algorithm demonstrated ~50% and 38% increase in precision compared to Straight Line Path (SLP) and Point of Closest Approach (PoCA) algorithms, respectively. Furthermore, it exhibited 10%–35% and 10%–15% increases in muon flux utilization for high and medium Z materials, respectively, compared to the PoCA algorithm. In conclusion, the extensive simulations confirm the enhanced performance and efficiency of the GMTE algorithm, offering improved resolution and reduced measurement time for cosmic ray muon imaging compared to the current SLP and PoCA algorithms.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Extending the SAGA Survey (xSAGA). I. Satellite Radial Profiles as a Function of Host-galaxy Properties

We present "Extending the Satellites Around Galactic Analogs Survey" (xSAGA), a method for identifying low-z galaxies on the basis of optical imaging and results on the spatial distributions of xSAGA satellites around host galaxies. Using spectroscopic redshift catalogs from the SAGA Survey as a training data set, we have optimized a convolutional neural network (CNN) to identify z < 0.03 galaxies from more-distant objects using image cutouts from the DESI Legacy Imaging Surveys. From the sample of >100,000 CNN-selected low-z galaxies, we identify >20,000 probable satellites located between 36–300 projected kpc from NASA-Sloan Atlas central galaxies in the stellar-mass range $9.5\lt \mathrm{log}({M}_{\star }/{M}_{\odot })\lt 11$. We characterize the incompleteness and contamination for CNN-selected samples and apply corrections in order to estimate the true number of satellites as a function of projected radial distance from their hosts. Satellite richness depends strongly on host stellar mass, such that more-massive host galaxies have more satellites, and on host morphology, such that elliptical hosts have more satellites than disky hosts with comparable stellar masses. We also find a strong inverse correlation between satellite richness and the magnitude gap between a host and its brightest satellite. The normalized satellite radial distribution between 36–300 kpc does not depend on host stellar mass, morphology, or magnitude gap. The satellite abundances and radial distributions we measure are in reasonable agreement with predictions from hydrodynamic simulations. Our results deliver unprecedented statistical power for studying satellite galaxy populations and highlight the promise of using machine-learning for extending galaxy samples of wide-area surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Projection algorithm for state preparation on quantum computers

We present an efficient method to prepare states of a many-body system on quantum hardware, first isolating individual quantum numbers and then using time evolution to isolate the energy. Our method in its simplest form requires only one additional auxiliary qubit. The total time evolved for an accurate solution is proportional to the ratio of the spectrum range of the trial state to the gap to the lowest excited state, a substantial improvement over other projection algorithms, and the accuracy increases exponentially with the time evolved. Isolating the quantum numbers is efficient because of the known eigenvalues and increases the gap thus shortening the propagation time required. The success rate of the algorithm, or the probability of producing the desired state, is a simple function of measurement times and phases and is dominated by the square overlap of the original state to the desired state. We present examples from the nuclear shell model and the Heisenberg model. In conclusion, we compare this algorithm to previous algorithms for short evolution times and discuss potential further improvements.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Case studies in bias reduction and inference for electronic health record data with selection bias and phenotype misclassification

Electronic health records (EHR) are not designed for population‐based research, but they provide easy and quick access to longitudinal health information for a large number of individuals. Many statistical methods have been proposed to account for selection bias, missing data, phenotyping errors, or other problems that arise in EHR data analysis. However, addressing multiple sources of bias simultaneously is challenging. We developed a methodological framework (R package, SAMBA ) for jointly handling both selection bias and phenotype misclassification in the EHR setting that leverages external data sources. These methods assume factors related to selection and misclassification are fully observed, but these factors may be poorly understood and partially observed in practice. As a follow‐up to the methodological work, we demonstrate how to apply these methods for two real‐world case studies, and we evaluate their performance. In both examples, we use individual patient‐level data collected through the University of Michigan Health System and various external population‐based data sources. In case study (a), we explore the impact of these methods on estimated associations between gender and cancer diagnosis. In case study (b), we compare corrected associations between previously identified genetic loci and age‐related macular degeneration with gold standard external summary estimates. These case studies illustrate how to utilize diverse auxiliary information to achieve less biased inference in EHR‐based research.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Identifying and tracking bubbles and drops in simulations: A toolbox for obtaining sizes, lineages, and breakup and coalescence statistics

Knowledge of bubble and drop size distributions in two-phase flows is important for characterizing a wide range of phenomena, including combustor ignition, sonar communication, and cloud formation. The physical mechanisms driving the background flow also drive the time evolution of these distributions. Accurate and robust identification and tracking algorithms for the dispersed phase are necessary to reliably measure this evolution and thereby quantify the underlying mechanisms in interface-resolving flow simulations. The identification of individual bubbles and drops traditionally relies on an algorithm used to identify connected regions. This traditional algorithm can be sensitive to the presence of spurious structures. A cost-effective refinement is proposed to maximize volume accuracy while minimizing the identification of spurious bubbles and drops. An accurate identification scheme is crucial for distinguishing bubble and drop pairs with large size ratios. The identified bubbles and drops need to be tracked in time to obtain breakup and coalescence statistics that characterize the evolution of the size distribution, including breakup and coalescence frequencies, and the probability distributions of parent and child bubble and drop sizes. An algorithm based on mass conservation is proposed to construct bubble and drop lineages using simulation snapshots that are not necessarily from consecutive time steps. These lineages are then used to detect breakup and coalescence events, and obtain the desired statistics. Accurate identification of large-size-ratio bubble and drop pairs enables accurate detection of breakup and coalescence events over a large size range. Accurate detection of successive breakup and coalescence events requires that the snapshot interval be an order of magnitude smaller than the characteristic breakup and coalescence times to capture these successive events while minimizing the identification of repeated confounding events. Together, these algorithms serve as a toolbox for detailed analysis of two-phase simulations, and enable insights into the mechanisms behind bubble and drop formation and evolution in flows of practical importance.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Rare Events via Cross-Entropy Population Monte Carlo

Rare events are events that happen with very low frequency. Estimating rare event probabilities using Monte Carlo techniques is computationally expensive, often to the point of intractability, and special methods are required. Importance sampling (IS) is a well known technique that uses a proposal distribution in place of a target distribution to lower the variance of the estimator. Key to the success of IS methods is the choice of a proposal distribution, or the parameters governing the distribution. Adaptive importance sampling improves the parameters of a family or population of proposal distributions iteratively through trials. We present a novel cross-entropy population Monte Carlo algorithm, which adapts the parameters of proposals through the cross-entropy method. The proposed method stands apart from previous work in that we are not optimizing a mixture distribution. Instead, we leverage deterministic mixture weights and optimize the distributions individually through a reinterpretation of the typical derivation of the cross-entropy method. Demonstrations on rare event examples show that the algorithm can outperform existing resampling based population Monte Carlo methods, especially for higher-dimensional problems. Finally, we also demonstrate efficacy on a conjunction analysis problem.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Angular correlation between the fission fragment intrinsic spins

The generation of fission fragment (FF) spins and of their relative orbital angular momentum has been debated for more than six decades, and no consensus has been achieved so far. The interpretation of recent experimental results of Wilson et al., has been challenged by several recent theoretical studies, which are not in agreement with one another. According to the interpretation by Wilson et al., the FF spins emerge very long after scission occurrs. Randrup and Vogt, while agreeing that the FF spins are uncorrelated, conclude on the basis of a phenomenological model that these spins are uncorrelated already before scission. Bulgac et al., in a fully microscopic study demonstrate that the primordial FF spin final values are defined before the emission of prompt neutrons and statistical gammas and are strongly correlated with a relative angle between spins close to 2π/3, a result in full agreement with the present independent analysis. The prompt neutrons and statistical gammas carry a significant amount of angular momentum according to the study of Stetcu et al. which can lead to a decorrelation of the FF bandhead spins of the yrast lines measured by Wilson et al., and which also provides arguments why these measured spins are so different from the primordial FF spins evaluated by Bulgac et al.. Here, I show that the unexpected character of the angular correlation between the primordial FF intrinsic spins, recently evaluated by Bulgac et al., which favors FF intrinsic spins pointing predominantly in opposite directions, can be understood by using simple general phase space arguments. The observation by Wilson et al., that the FF spins are uncorrelated follows from both the results of the microscopic calculation of Bulgac et al., and the present analysis of the full correlated probability distribution of the FF spins together with the relative orbital angular momentum of the primordial FFs. These arguments may apply also to heavy-ion collisions and, since there is no use of specifics of the particle interactions, the present results might apply to atomic and molecular systems as well.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bipartite mutual information in classical many-body dynamics

Information theoretic measures have helped to sharpen our understanding of many-body quantum states. As perhaps the most well-known example, the entanglement entropy (or more generally, the bipartite mutual information) has become a powerful tool for characterizing the dynamical growth of quantum correlations. By contrast, although computable, the bipartite mutual information (MI) is almost never explored in classical many particle systems; this owes in part to the fact that computing the MI requires keeping track of the evolution of the full probability distribution, a feat which is rarely done (or thought to be needed) in classical many-body simulations. Here, we utilize the MI to analyze the spreading of information in 1D elementary cellular automata (CA). Broadly speaking, we find that the behavior of the MI in these dynamical systems exhibits a few different types of scaling that roughly correspond to known CA universality classes. Of particular note is that we observe a set of automata for which the MI converges parametrically slowly to its thermodynamic value. We develop a microscopic understanding of this behavior by analyzing a two-species model of annihilating particles moving in opposite directions. Furthermore, our work suggests the possibility that information theoretic tools such as the MI might enable a more fine-grained characterization of classical many-body states and dynamics.

Cellular automata↗