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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Predicting mesoscale spectral thermal conductivity using advanced deterministic phonon transport techniques

We present a review, demonstration and simulation of phonon transport for the purposes of predicting materials performance at the mesoscale. We focus primarily on the development and implementation of a unified methodology to enable predictive heat transport. We report on the current state of the art as it pertains to deterministic phonon transport methodologies, discussing various topics concerning phonons. In application, we focus on the Self-Adjoint Angular Flux (SAAF) formulation of the Boltzmann transport equation for phonons, and develop the spatial, angular, and material property discretization required to accurately simulate the predictive physics of heat transport in dielectrics. We discuss thermal interfacial resistance and present our formulation of the diffuse mismatch model for simulating phonon interactions at internal boundaries. We have recently developed a deterministic, spectral phonon transport method for predicting effective thermal conductivity ($\kappa_{\textrm{eff}}$), using Bose-Einstein source terms coupled through an average material temperature. In this method, we introduce a closure term to the phonon transport system which acts as a redistribution function for the total energy of the system, and serves as a guide for the amount of non-equilibrium behavior occurring in the system. This method predicts thermal conductivity and equilibrium temperature distributions in homogeneous and heterogeneous materials using data generated by ab initio density functional theory methods. We employ polarization, density of states and full dispersion spectra to resolve thermal conductivity with numerous angular and spatial discretizations. Our implementation utilizes a Richardson iteration on a modified version of the phonon scattering source. The equations associated with this method are solved via a modification of traditional source iteration. We compare the performance of source iteration applied to an existing uncoupled, traditional SAAF method to our new method and comment on the iterative performance of each. We observe ballistic and diffusive phonon scattering as acoustic thickness of the domain changes, and are able to make comparisons between the accuracy and efficiency of both methods.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Deep learning methods for drug response prediction in cancer: Predominant and emerging trends

Cancer claims millions of lives yearly worldwide. While many therapies have been made available in recent years, by in large cancer remains unsolved. Exploiting computational predictive models to study and treat cancer holds great promise in improving drug development and personalized design of treatment plans, ultimately suppressing tumors, alleviating suffering, and prolonging lives of patients. A wave of recent papers demonstrates promising results in predicting cancer response to drug treatments while utilizing deep learning methods. These papers investigate diverse data representations, neural network architectures, learning methodologies, and evaluations schemes. However, deciphering promising predominant and emerging trends is difficult due to the variety of explored methods and lack of standardized framework for comparing drug response prediction models. To obtain a comprehensive landscape of deep learning methods, we conducted an extensive search and analysis of deep learning models that predict the response to single drug treatments. A total of 61 deep learning-based models have been curated, and summary plots were generated. Based on the analysis, observable patterns and prevalence of methods have been revealed. This review allows to better understand the current state of the field and identify major challenges and promising solution paths.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Estimating Subhourly Inverter Clipping Loss From Satellite-Derived Irradiance Data: Preprint

Photovoltaic system production simulations are conventionally run using hourly weather datasets. Hourly simulations are sufficiently accurate to predict the majority of long-term system behavior but cannot resolve high-frequency effects like inverter clipping caused by short-duration irradiance variability. Direct modeling of this subhourly clipping error is only possible for the few locations with high-resolution irradiance datasets. This paper describes a method of predicting the magnitude of this error using a machine learning model and 30-minute satellite irradiance data. The method predicts a correction for each 30-minute interval with the potential to roll up into 60-minute corrections to match an hourly energy model. The model is trained and validated at locations where the error can be directly simulated from 1-minute ground data. The validation shows low bias at most ground station locations. The model is also applied to gridded satellite irradiance to produce a heatmap of the estimated clipping error across the United States. Finally, the relative importance of each predictor satellite variable is retrieved from the model and discussed.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Estimating Subhourly Inverter Clipping Loss From Satellite-Derived Irradiance Data

Photovoltaic system production simulations are conventionally run using hourly weather datasets. Hourly simulations are sufficiently accurate to predict the majority of long-term system behavior but cannot resolve high-frequency effects like inverter clipping caused by short-duration irradiance variability. Direct modeling of this subhourly clipping error is only possible for the few locations with high-resolution irradiance datasets. This paper describes a method of predicting the magnitude of this error using a machine learning regressor ensemble model, comprised of a random forest and an XGBoost model, and 30-minute satellite irradiance data. The method predicts a correction for each 30-minute interval with the potential to roll up into 60-minute corrections to match an hourly energy model. The model is trained and validated at locations where the error can be directly simulated from 1-minute ground data. The validation shows low bias at most ground station locations. The model is also applied to gridded satellite irradiance to produce a heatmap of the estimated clipping error across the United States. Finally, the relative importance of each predictor satellite variable is retrieved from the model and discussed.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗
DOE OSTI2023

An approach to learn regulation to maximize growth and entropy production rates in metabolism

Elucidating cell regulation remains a challenging task due to the complexity of metabolism and the difficulty of experimental measurements. Here we present a method for prediction of cell regulation to maximize cell growth rate while maintaining the solvent capacity of the cell. Prediction is formulated as an optimization problem using a thermodynamic framework that can leverage experimental data. We develop a formulation and variable initialization procedure that allows for computing solutions of the optimization with an interior point method. The approach is applied to photoheterotrophic growth of Rhodospirilium rubrum using ethanol as a carbon source, which has applications to biosynthesis of ethylene production. Growth is captured as the rate of synthesis of amino acids into proteins, and synthesis of nucleotide triphoshaptes into RNA and DNA. The method predicts regulation that produces a high rate of protein and RNA synthesis while DNA synthesis is reduced close to zero in agreement with production of DNA being turned off for much of the cell cycle.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Online energy consumption forecast for battery electric buses using a learning-free algebraic method

Accurately predicting the energy consumption plays a vital role in battery electric buses (BEBs) route planning and deployment. Based on the algebraic derivative estimation, we present a novel method to forecast the energy consumption in real time. In contrast to the mainstream machine-learning-based methods, the proposed method does not require access to the historical energy consumption data. It eliminates the time-consuming and computationally expensive offline training. Consequently, its prediction performance is not constrained by the quantity and quality of the training data. Moreover, the method can swiftly adapt to new situations not included in the previous driving cycles, which makes it especially suitable for emerging transport modes, e.g., on-demand transit services. In addition, its online execution only involves algebraic calculations, yielding superior calculation efficiency. Using real-world data, we comprehensively compare the performance of the proposed learning-free algebraic method with multiple representative machine-learning-based methods. Finally, the advantages and limitations of the proposed method are discussed in detail.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2021

An Experimental Study of Uncertainty Considerations Associated with Predicting Auto-ignition Timing using Livengood-Wu Integral Method

The application of the Livengood-Wu (LW) integral method as a tool to estimate knock onset in spark ignited (SI) engines and combustion phasing in advanced compression ignition (ACI) engines has been demonstrated through simulations several times. In this study, the effect of uncertainties associated with parameters required for the LW integral method, when used as a tool for model based control of ignition timing in an ACI engine, were experimentally studied using five full boiling range gasoline fuels. As a first step, the method was applied to experimental data from a rapid compression machine and it was found that the ability of the LW integral method to predict ignition timing was very sensitive to the performance of the chemical kinetic model of each fuel. The method was subsequently applied to experimental data from a single-cylinder gasoline engine with simple approximations for the LW integral input parameters, and it was found that the predicted time of ignition was significantly different from the actual start of combustion. Systematic evaluation of various parametric uncertainties conducted thereafter showed that the uncertainty in cylinder charge temperature has the greatest influence. Improved methods of estimating cylinder charge temperature are proposed to account for the previously determined corrections, to enable the use of the LW integral method for model based control of ignition timing.

Compression Ignition↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine Learning with Gradient-Based Optimization of Nuclear Waste Vitrification with Uncertainties and Constraints

Gekko is an optimization suite in Python that solves optimization problems involving mixed-integer, nonlinear, and differential equations. The purpose of this study is to integrate common Machine Learning (ML) algorithms such as Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), support vector regression (SVR), and artificial neural network (ANN) models into Gekko to solve data based optimization problems. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is used alongside ML for better decision making. These methods include ensemble methods, model-specific methods, conformal predictions, and the delta method. An optimization problem involving nuclear waste vitrification is presented to demonstrate the benefit of ML in this field. ML models are compared against the current partial quadratic mixture (PQM) model in an optimization problem in Gekko. GPR with conformal uncertainty was chosen as the best substitute model as it had a lower mean squared error of 0.0025 compared to 0.018 and more confidently predicted a higher waste loading of 37.5 wt% compared to 34 wt%. The example problem shows that these tools can be used in similar industry settings where easier use and better performance is needed over classical approaches. Future works with these tools include expanding them with other regression models and UQ methods, and exploration into other optimization problems or dynamic control.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2024

Numerical challenges for energy conservation in N -body simulations of collapsing self-interacting dark matter halos

Dark matter (DM) halos can be subject to gravothermal collapse if the DM is not collisionless, but engaged in strong self-interactions instead. When the scattering is able to efficiently transfer heat from the centre to the outskirts, the central region of the halo collapses and reaches densities much higher than those for collisionless DM. This phenomenon is potentially observable in studies of strong lensing. Current theoretical efforts are motivated by observations of surprisingly dense substructures. However, a comparison with observations requires accurate predictions. One method to obtain such predictions is to use N-body simulations. Collapsed halos are extreme systems that pose severe challenges when applying state-of-the-art codes to model self-interacting dark matter (SIDM). In this work, we investigate the root of such problems, with a focus on energy non-conservation. Moreover, we discuss possible strategies to avoid them. We ran N-body simulations, both with and without SIDM, of an isolated DM-only halo and we adjusted the numerical parameters to check the accuracy of the simulation. We find that not only the numerical scheme for SIDM can lead to energy non-conservation, but also the modelling of gravitational interaction and the time integration are problematic. The main issues we find are: (a) particles changing their time step in a non-time-reversible manner; (b) the asymmetry in the tree-based gravitational force evaluation; and (c) SIDM velocity kicks breaking the time symmetry. Tuning the parameters of the simulation to achieve a high level of accuracy allows us to conserve energy not only at early stages of the evolution, but also later on. However, the cost of the simulations becomes prohibitively large as a result. Some of the problems that make the simulations of the gravothermal collapse phase inaccurate can be overcome by choosing appropriate numerical schemes. However, other issues still pose a challenge. Our findings motivate further works on addressing the challenges in simulating strong DM self-interactions.

dark matter↗
DOE OSTI2022

Morphological-informed Thermal Property Prediction in the Engineering Domain

Using first-principle, atomic scale methods to predict thermal carrier (electron and phonon) behavior at nanoscale yields highly resolved thermal properties. Density functional theory simulations can model myriad effects on the transport of phonons and electrons (e.g., phonon and electron coupling, electron correlation, defect presence, carrier scattering), and yield thermal properties for small geometric domains such as thermal and electrical conductivity, or heat capacity. While these thermal properties are accurate in atomistic and nanoscopic systems, they must be scaled up to the microstructural domain to be a useful predictor for experimental basis, as the microscale is where myriad changes and physical phenomenon occur within a material (e.g., grain boundaries, precipitate aggregations, interfaces, defect clusters). My talk will discuss the necessity of thermal property predictions for nuclear fuels applications and more. Additionally I will discuss the necessity in developing multi-physics, multi-scale methods for future applications in predictions for not only nuclear fuels, but other materials applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Machine learning and ligand binding predictions: A review of data, methods, and obstacles

We report that computational predictions of ligand binding is a difficult problem, with more accurate methods being extremely computationally expensive. The use of machine learning for drug binding predictions could possibly leverage the use of biomedical big data in exchange for time-intensive simulations. This paper reviews current trends in the use of machine learning for drug binding predictions, data sources to develop machine learning algorithms, and potential problems that may lead to overfitting and ungeneralizable models. A few popular datasets that can be used to develop virtual high-throughput screening models are characterized using spatial statistics to quantify potential biases. We can see from evaluating some common benchmarks that good performance correlates with models with high-predicted bias scores and models with low bias scores do not have much predictive power. A better understanding of the limits of available data sources and how to fix them will lead to more generalizable models that will lead to novel drug discovery.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning prediction of enzyme optimum pH

The relationship between pH and enzyme catalytic activity, especially the optimal pH (pH opt ) at which enzymes function, is critical for biotechnological applications. Hence, computational methods to predict pH opt will enhance enzyme discovery and design by facilitating accurate identification of enzymes that function optimally at specific pH levels, and by elucidating sequence-function relationships. Here, in this study, we proposed and evaluated various machine learning methods for predicting pH opt , conducting extensive hyperparameter optimization and training over 11,000 model instances. Our results demonstrate that models utilizing language model embeddings markedly outperform other methods in predicting pHopt. We present EpHod, the best-performing model, to predict pHopt, making it publicly available to researchers. From sequence data, EpHod directly learns structural and biophysical features that relate to pH opt , including proximity of residues to the catalytic centre and the accessibility of solvent molecules. Overall, EpHod presents a promising advancement in pH opt prediction and will potentially speed up the development of enzyme technologies.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Method of Ground-Based Cloud Motion Predict: CCLSTM + SR-Net

Ground-based cloud images can provide information on weather and cloud conditions, which play an important role in cloud cover monitoring and photovoltaic power generation forecasting. However, the cloud motion prediction of ground-based cloud images still lacks advanced and complete methods, and traditional technologies based on image processing and motion vector calculation are difficult to predict cloud morphological changes. In this paper, we propose a cloud motion prediction method based on Cascade Causal Long Short-Term Memory (CCLSTM) and Super-Resolution Network (SR-Net). Firstly, CCLSTM is used to estimate the shape and speed of cloud motion. Secondly, the Super-Resolution Network is built based on perceptual losses to reconstruct the result of CCLSTM and, finally, make it clearer. We tested our method on Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility TSI (total sky imager) images. The experiments showed that the method is able to predict the sky cloud changes in the next few steps.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

D–MOPH–25: diverse MOF–molecule pairs for Henry’s constants prediction

Computational methods like grand-canonical Monte Carlo simulations and machine learning (ML) have accelerated metal–organic frameworks (MOF) exploration but are typically limited to a narrow range of adsorbates due to data availability and force field constraints. In this study, we introduce a dataset of diverse MOF–molecule pairs for Henry’s constant prediction, D–MOPH–25, which systematically explores a diverse chemical space by combining 113 molecular adsorbates with over 5000 MOF structures through an active learning process. D–MOPH–25 constitutes the most diverse adsorbate dataset used in any ML study of molecular adsorption in MOFs to date. Our workflow builds a benchmark for predicting Henry’s constants at 300 K, leveraging conformal prediction for uncertainty quantification. Assessment through Shannon entropy and uniform manifold approximation and projection confirms the comprehensiveness of D–MOPH–25 while highlighting the importance of robust classification to filter out unphysical data points in regression tasks. Although future enhancements in model architecture and sampling criteria could improve predictive performance, our dataset already spans the target space using only 2.31% of total possibilities. This comprehensive dataset facilitates assessment of model generalizability across adsorbate species and can establish a foundation for high-throughput MOF screening and ML-driven separation processes.

active learning↗
DOE OSTI2024

Deep Learning Prediction of Protein Complex Structures

Proteins interact to form protein complex to carry out biological functions such as catalytic chemical reaction. Therefore, it is important to develop computational methods to predict protein-protein interaction and the structures of protein complexes to study and enhance protein function. In this project, we successfully developed several deep learning methods to predict inter-protein contacts and the reinforcement learning and optimization methods to reconstruct protein complex structures from predicted inter-chain contacts. The methods were integrated with the MULTICOM protein complex structure prediction system and applied to predict the complex structures of biomass production-related proteins of green algae. During the two and a half years of research and development, all the specific milestones of the project were achieved successfully. 16 publications/manuscripts were produced. 10 software tools were developed. A patent application was submitted. Our MULTICOM predictors leveraging some tools developed in this project were ranked among the top predictors in the 15th Critical Assessment of Techniques for Protein Structure Prediction (CASP15) in 2022.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Time-temperature-superposition analysis of diverse datasets by the minimum-arclength method: long-term prediction with uncertainty margins

In a recent publication, we carried out an extensive analysis of an unsupervised method of determining optimum shift factors in time-temperature-superposition of accelerated-aging data that involves minimizing the vertical arclength to obtain the master curve. For synthetic Arrhenius data with a variety of noise distributions, the work showed that, in conjunction with bootstrap-resampling, the method can produce reliable estimates of the mean activation energy along with uncertainty quantification. Here, we apply the above method to six different datasets taken from the published literature and demonstrate accurate prediction of mean activation energy from the data as-is without the need for any pre-processing or fitting. We also compare uncertainty margins computed by second-order bootstrap with that by linear regression theory and show that the former appears to provide consistent margins in the presence of common noise types in real data, including intra-isotherm measurement-errors, sample-to-sample variations, and intrinsic deviation from perfect Arrhenius behavior.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Methods for cytotoxic chemotherapy-based predictive assays

The invention relates to methods, systems and kits for determining therapeutic effectiveness or toxicity of cancer-treating compounds that incorporate into or bind to DNA. In particular, the invention is directed to methods, systems and kits for predicting a patient's treatment outcome after administration of a microdose of therapeutic composition to the patient. The methods provides physicians with a diagnostic tool to segregate cancer patients into differential populations that have a higher or lower chance of responding to a particular therapeutic treatment.

Henderson, Paul↗
DOE OSTI2021

Robust Predictive Control for Modular Solid-State Transformer With Reduced DC Link and Parameter Mismatch

This paper presents the analysis and implementation of a predictive control method for dc-link regulation and voltage balance in a cascaded modular reduced dc-link solid-state transformer (SST). Passive components like bulky dc links limit the power density of power converters, especially medium-voltage (MV) SST. Reduced dc-link or low-inertia converters can dramatically reduce the size, cost, and weight by tolerating larger dc-link ripples and improve the reliability with electrolytic capacitor-less dc link. However, a small dc link leads to tight coupling between the input and the output stages, which is a challenge for control design. In stacked low-inertia converters (SLIC), the low-inertia converter modules are stacked for MV applications, resulting in coupling between the modules and making the control more challenging. A new model predictive control method which can achieve deadbeat regulation on the dc link without weighting factors has been proposed to address this novel problem. This paper focuses on analyzing the condition of the low-inertia dc link up to 80% ripple, the robustness of the control under parameter mismatches, high-order terms, and important implementation issues such as model-based sampling and computation delay compensation. Significantly, the high-order terms are introduced because of the large dc-link ripple. These high-order terms are unique to the SLIC and negligible in conventional high-inertia converters. A discrete-time large-signal model is built to capture the dc-link’s nonlinear dynamics, and the eigenvalues of a small-signal Jacobian matrix are analyzed with Floquet theory to evaluate stability, using the modular soft-switching solid-state transformer (M-S4T) as an example of the SLIC. Simulation and experimental results of an MVDC M-S4T verify the analysis and the predictive control method. Finally, the general application of the predictive control to low-inertia converters is compared against a conventional PI controller using a reduced dc-link active-front-end (AFE) rectifier as an example.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗