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NASA NTRS2011

Adding a Second Ku-Band Antenna to the International Space Station

The International Space Station, as originally developed, used the Ku-Band Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System communications link to transmit non-critical data to the ground. Since becoming operational, the use for the link evolved to include additional services that, although also not critical, were deemed to be necessary for the crew. The external Ku-Band Antennas were designed for transport to the ISS in the shuttle cargo bay and thus are not suitable for manifesting on any current cargo vehicle. The original intent was to stow two spare antennas on orbit in a protective container until such time as they were needed to replace a failing unit which is a long and complicated process due to the complexity of the removal and replacement procedure. The Boeing Company proposed manifesting one of those spare antennas in an operable configuration eliminating the need for an Extravehicular Activity (EVA) to correct the first failure and as such minimizing the time to hours rather than weeks required to restore the Ku-Band communications link after failures. After the first failure, an EVA would be scheduled to replace the failed antenna with the stowed spare antenna. Because the hot spare is activated internal to the ISS, the replacement of the failed unit can be done when convenient rather than in haste. This paper describes the methodology used to locate a suitable site to add a new antenna mast to the ISS as well the process followed to fabricate, deliver and install the new interface hardware. Because this was not planned when the ISS was originally designed, structural, power, data and Intermediate Frequency signal connections had to be found for use. With the movement of the P6 solar array element from the initial location in the center zenith location of the ISS to the end of the port side of the truss and concurrent relocation of one string of S-Band communications assets, there were candidate power, data and structural connections available on the Z1 Truss. The engineering team evaluated these residual interfaces for use and designed cabling and structural elements for the candidate interfaces. The antenna was recently installed on ULF-4 and has completed a preliminary checkout. Included in this check out were evaluation of the power level received from the TDRS and evaluation of the gimbal position feedback for consideration in the static bias pointing matrix. This process demonstrates the ability to modify and upgrade manned space vehicles as either need or technology requires.

DuSold, Chuck↗
NASA NTRS2010

Trace Gas Measurements on Mars and Earth Using Optical Parametric Generation

Trace gases and their isotopic ratios in planetary atmospheres offer important but subtle clues as to the origins of a planet's atmosphere, hydrology, geology, and potential for biology. An orbiting laser remote sensing instrument is capable of measuring trace gases on a global scale with unprecedented accuracy, and higher spatial resolution that can be obtained by passive instruments. We have developed an active sensing instrument for the remote measurement of trace gases in planetary atmospheres (including Earth). The technique uses widely tunable, seeded optical parametric generation (OPG) to measure methane, CO2, water vapor, and other trace gases in the near and mid-infrared spectral regions. Methane is a strong greenhouse gas on Earth and it is also a potential biogenic marker on Mars and other planets. Methane in the Earth's atmosphere survives for a shorter time than CO2 but its impact on climate change can be larger than CO2. Methane levels have remained relatively constant over the last decade around 1.78 parts per million (ppm) but recent observations indicate that methane levels may be on the rise. Increasing methane concentrations may trigger a positive feedback loop and a subsequent runaway greenhouse effect, where increasing temperatures result in increasing methane levels. The NRC Decadal Survey recognized the importance of global observations of greenhouse gases and called for simultaneous CH4, CO, and CO2 measurements but also underlined the technological limitations for these observations. For Mars, methane measurements are of great interest because of its potential as a strong biogenic marker. A remote sensing instrument that can measure day and night over all seasons and latitudes can identify and localize sources of biogenic gas plumes produced by subsurface chemistry or biology, and aid in the search for extra-terrestrial life. It can identify the dynamics of methane generation over time and latitude and identify future lander mission sites for more detailed in-situ analysis. In this paper we report on remote sensing measurements of methane using a high peak power, widely tunable optical parametric generator (OPG) operating at 3.3 micron and 1.65 micron. The OPG is pumped by a passively q-switched single frequency laser (3ns, 5KHz, 50uJ) and seeded by a diode laser. The spectral width of both signal and idler of seeded OPG is nearly Fourier transform limited. The output of seeded OPG is single frequency with high spectral purity and is widely tunable. Both 1650 nm and 3300 nm can be generated with a conversion efficiency of more than 30%. We have demonstrated detection of methane at 3274 nm and 1650 nm in a cell and also performed open path atmospheric measurements of methane at the same wavelengths. Finally, we were able to demonstrate simultaneous detection of methane at 3270.4 nm and CO2 at 1578.2 nm. In this paper we will discuss the OPG performance and atmospheric open path measurement results.

Numata, Kenji↗
NASA NTRS2010

Functional Allocation for Ground-Based Automated Separation Assurance in NextGen

As part of an ongoing research effort into functional allocation in a NextGen environment, a controller-in-the-loop study on ground-based automated separation assurance was conducted at NASA Ames' Airspace Operations Laboratory in February 2010. Participants included six FAA front line managers, who are currently certified professional controllers and four recently retired controllers. Traffic scenarios were 15 and 30 minutes long where controllers interacted with advanced technologies for ground-based separation assurance, weather avoidance, and arrival metering. The automation managed the separation by resolving conflicts automatically and involved controllers only by exception, e.g., when the automated resolution would have been outside preset limits. Results from data analyses show that workload was low despite high levels of traffic, Operational Errors did occur but were closely tied to local complexity, and safety acceptability ratings varied with traffic levels. Positive feedback was elicited for the overall concept with discussion on the proper allocation of functions and trust in automation.

Prevot, Thomas↗
NASA NTRS2010

Reconnection Onset in the Breakout Model for CME Initiation

Fast coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the most massive explosions in the heliosphere, and the primary drivers of geoeffective space weather. Although it is generally agreed that magnetic reconnection is the key to fast CME initiation, different models incorporate reconnection in different ways. One promising model --- the breakout scenario --- involves reconnection in two distinct yet interconnected locations: breakout reconnection ahead of the CME, and flare reconnection behind it. We will discuss what we have learned about the early evolution of breakout and flare reconnection from recent high-resolution 2.5D adaptively refined MHD simulations of CME initiation, including the evolving properties of the breakout and flare current sheets, the conditions that trigger reconnection onset in each sheet, the ensuing positive feedback between breakout and flare reconnections, and implications for electron acceleration in flares.

Karpen, Judy T.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Investigation of the 2006 Drought and 2007 Flood Extremes at the Southern Great Plains Through an Integrative Analysis of Observations

Hydrological years 2006 (HY06, 10/2005-09/2006) and 2007 (HY07, 10/2006-09/2007) provide a unique opportunity to examine hydrological extremes in the central US because there are no other examples of two such highly contrasting precipitation extremes occurring in consecutive years at the Southern Great Plains (SGP) in recorded history. The HY06 annual precipitation in the state of Oklahoma, as observed by the Oklahoma Mesonet, is around 61% of the normal (92.84 cm, based on the 1921-2008 climatology), which results in HY06 the second-driest year in the record. In particular, the total precipitation during the winter of 2005-06 is only 27% of the normal, and this winter ranks as the driest season. On the other hand, the HY07 annual precipitation amount is 121% of the normal and HY07 ranks as the seventh-wettest year for the entire state and the wettest year for the central region of the state. Summer 2007 is the second-wettest season for the state. Large-scale dynamics play a key role in these extreme events. During the extreme dry period (10/2005-02/2006), a dipole pattern in the 500-hPa GH anomaly existed where an anomalous high was over the southwestern U.S. region and an anomalous low was over the Great Lakes. This pattern is associated with inhibited moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico and strong sinking motion over the SGP, both contributing to the extreme dryness. The precipitation deficit over the SGP during the extreme dry period is clearly linked to significantly suppressed cyclonic activity over the southwestern U.S., which shows robust relationship with the Western Pacific (WP) teleconnection pattern. The precipitation events during the extreme wet period (May-July 2007) were initially generated by active synoptic weather patterns, linked with moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico by the northward low level jet, and enhanced by the mesoscale convective systems. Although the drought and pluvial conditions are dominated by large-scale dynamic patterns, we have demonstrated that the two positive feedback processes during the extreme dry and wet periods found in this study play a key role to maintain and reinforce the length and severity of existing drought and flood events. For example, during the extreme dry period, with less clouds, LWP, PWV, precipitation, and thinner Cu cloud thickness, more net radiation was absorbed and used to evaporate water from the ground. The evaporated moisture, however, was removed by low-level divergence. Thus, with less precipitation and removed atmospheric moisture, more absorbed incoming solar radiation was used to increase surface temperature and to make the ground drier.

Dong, Xiquan↗
NASA NTRS2008

2008 NASA Range Safety Annual Report

Welcome to the 2008 edition of the NASA Range Safety Annual Report. Funded by NASA Headquarters, this report provides a NASA Range Safety overview for current and potential range users. This year, along with full length articles concerning various subject areas, we have provided updates to standard subjects with links back to the 2007 original article. Additionally, we present summaries from the various NASA Range Safety Program activities that took place throughout the year, as well as information on several special projects that may have a profound impact on the way we will do business in the future. The sections include a program overview and 2008 highlights of Range Safety Training; Range Safety Policy; Independent Assessments and Common Risk Analysis Tools Development; Support to Program Operations at all ranges conducting NASA launch operations; a continuing overview of emerging Range Safety-related technologies; Special Interests Items that include recent changes in the ELV Payload Safety Program and the VAS explosive siting study; and status reports from all of the NASA Centers that have Range Safety responsibilities. As is the case each year, contributors to this report are too numerous to mention, but we thank individuals from the NASA Centers, the Department of Defense, and civilian organizations for their contributions. We have made a great effort to include the most current information available. We recommend that this report be used only for guidance and that the validity and accuracy of all articles be verified for updates. This is the third year we have utilized this web-based format for the annual report. We continually receive positive feedback on the web-based edition, and we hope you enjoy this year's product as well. It has been a very busy and productive year on many fronts as you will note as you review this report. Thank you to everyone who contributed to make this year a successful one, and I look forward to working with all of you in the years to come.

Lamoreaux, Richard W.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Linking The Atlantic Gyres: Warm, Saline Intrusions From Subtropical Atlantic to the Nordic Seas

Ocean state estimates from SODA assimilation are analyzed to understand how major shifts in the North Atlantic Current path relate to AMOC, and how these shifts are related to large scale ocean circulation and surface forcing. These complement surface-drifter and altimetry data showing the same events. SODA data indicate that the warm water limb of AMOC, reaching to at least 600m depth, expanded in density/salinity space greatly after 1995, and that Similar events occurred in the late 1960s and around 1980. While there were large changes in the upper limb, there was no immediate response in the dense return flow, at least not in SODA, however one would expect a delayed response of increasing AMOC due to the positive feedback from increased salt transport. These upper limb changes are winddriven, involving changes in the eastern subpolar gyre, visible in the subduction of low potential vorticity waters. The subtropical gyre has been weak during the times of the northward intrusions of the highly saline subtropical waters, while the NAO index has been neutral or in a negative phase. The image of subtropical/subpolar gyre exchange through teleconnections within the AMOC overturning cell will be described.

Hakkinen, Sirpa M.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Tuning the Sensitivity of an Optical Cavity with Slow and Fast Light

We have measured mode pushing by the dispersion of a rubidium vapor in a Fabry-Perot cavity and have shown that the scale factor and sensitivity of a passive cavity can be strongly enhanced by the presence of such an anomalous dispersion medium. The enhancement is the result of the atom-cavity coupling, which provides a positive feedback to the cavity response. The cavity sensitivity can also be controlled and tuned through a pole by a second, optical pumping, beam applied transverse to the cavity. Alternatively, the sensitivity can be controlled by the introduction of a second counter-propagating input beam that interferes with the first beam, coherently increasing the cavity absorptance. We show that the pole in the sensitivity occurs when the sum of the effective group index and an additional cavity delay factor that accounts for mode reshaping goes to zero, and is an example of an exceptional point, commonly associated with coupled non-Hermitian Hamiltonian systems. Additionally we show that a normal dispersion feature can decrease the cavity scale factor and can be generated through velocity selective optical pumping

Smith, David D.↗
NASA NTRS2012

2011 NASA Range Safety Annual Report

Welcome to the 2011 edition of the NASA Range Safety Annual Report. Funded by NASA Headquarters, this report provides a NASA Range Safety overview for current and potential range users. As is typical with odd year editions, this is an abbreviated Range Safety Annual Report providing updates and links to full articles from the previous year's report. It also provides more complete articles covering new subject areas, summaries of various NASA Range Safety Program activities conducted during the past year, and information on several projects that may have a profound impact on the way business will be done in the future. Specific topics discussed and updated in the 2011 NASA Range Safety Annual Report include a program overview and 2011 highlights; Range Safety Training; Range Safety Policy revision; Independent Assessments; Support to Program Operations at all ranges conducting NASA launch/flight operations; a continuing overview of emerging range safety-related technologies; and status reports from all of the NASA Centers that have Range Safety responsibilities. Every effort has been made to include the most current information available. We recommend this report be used only for guidance and that the validity and accuracy of all articles be verified for updates. Once again the web-based format was used to present the annual report. We continually receive positive feedback on the web-based edition and hope you enjoy this year's product as well. As is the case each year, contributors to this report are too numerous to mention, but we thank individuals from the NASA Centers, the Department of Defense, and civilian organizations for their contributions. In conclusion, it has been a busy and productive year. I'd like to extend a personal Thank You to everyone who contributed to make this year a successful one, and I look forward to working with all of you in the upcoming year.

Dumont, Alan G.↗
NASA NTRS2012

The 2010 Pakistan Flood and Russian Heat Wave: Teleconnection of Hydrometeorological Extremes

In this paper, preliminary results are presented showing that the two record-setting extreme events during 2010 summer (i.e., the Russian heat wave-wildfires and Pakistan flood) were physically connected. It is found that the Russian heat wave was associated with the development of an extraordinarily strong and prolonged extratropical atmospheric blocking event in association with the excitation of a large-scale atmospheric Rossby wave train spanning western Russia, Kazakhstan, and the northwestern China-Tibetan Plateau region. The southward penetration of upper-level vorticity perturbations in the leading trough of the Rossby wave was instrumental in triggering anomalously heavy rain events over northern Pakistan and vicinity in mid- to late July. Also shown are evidences that the Russian heat wave was amplified by a positive feedback through changes in surface energy fluxes between the atmospheric blocking pattern and an underlying extensive land region with below-normal soil moisture. The Pakistan heavy rain events were amplified and sustained by strong anomalous southeasterly flow along the Himalayan foothills and abundant moisture transport from the Bay of Bengal in connection with the northward propagation of the monsoonal intraseasonal oscillation.

Lau, William K. M.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Regional Warming from Aerosol Removal over the United States: Results from a Transient 2010-2050 Climate Simulation

We use a general circulation model (NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies GCM 3) to investigate the regional climate response to removal of aerosols over the United States. We perform a pair of transient 2010e2050 climate simulations following a scenario of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, with and without aerosols over the United States and with present-day aerosols elsewhere. We find that removing U.S. aerosol significantly enhances the warming from greenhouse gases in a spatial pattern that strongly correlates with that of the aerosol. Warming is nearly negligible outside the United States, but annual mean surface temperatures increase by 0.4e0.6 K in the eastern United States. Temperatures during summer heat waves in the Northeast rise by as much as 1e2 K due to aerosol removal, driven in part by positive feedbacks involving soil moisture and low cloud cover. Reducing U.S. aerosol sources to achieve air quality objectives could thus have significant unintended regional warming consequences.

Mickley, L. J.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Continued Development of the Rapid Cycle Amine (RCA) System for Advanced Extravehicular Activity Systems

Development activities related to the Rapid Cycle Amine (RCA) Carbon Dioxide (CO2) and Humidity control system have progressed to the point of integrating the RCA into an advanced Primary Life Support System (PLSS 2.0) to evaluate the interaction of the RCA among other PLSS components in a ground test environment. The RCA 2.0 assembly (integrated into PLSS 2.0) consists of a valve assembly with commercial actuator motor, a sorbent canister, and a field-programmable gate array (FPGA)-based process node controller. Continued design and development activities for RCA 3.0 have been aimed at optimizing the canister size and incorporating greater fidelity in the valve actuator motor and valve position feedback design. Further, the RCA process node controller is envisioned to incorporate a higher degree of functionality to support a distributed PLSS control architecture. This paper will describe the progression of technology readiness levels of RCA 1.0, 2.0 and 3.0 along with a review of the design and manufacturing successes and challenges for 2.0 and 3.0 units. The anticipated interfaces and interactions with the PLSS 2.0/2.5/3.0 assemblies will also be discussed.

Papale, William↗
NASA NTRS2013

An Evaluation of Operational Airspace Sectorization Integrated System (OASIS) Advisory Tool

In January 2013, a human-in-the-loop evaluation of the Operational Airspace Sectorization Integrated System (OASIS) was conducted in the Airspace Operations Laboratory of the Human Systems Integration Division (Code TH) in conjunction with the Aviation Systems Division (Code AF). The development of OASIS is a major activity of the Dynamic Airspace Configuration (DAC) research focus area within the Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) Airspace Systems Program. OASIS is an advisory tool to assist Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) En Route Area Supervisors in their planning of sector combinedecombine operations as well as opening closing of Data-side (D-side) control positions. These advisory solutions are tailored to the predicted traffic demand over the next few hours. During the experiment, eight retired FAA personnel served as participants for a part-task evaluation of OASIS functionality, covering the user interface as well as the underlying algorithm. Participants gave positive feedback on both the user interface and the algorithm solutions for airspace configuration, including an excellent average rating of 94 on the tool usability scales. They also suggested various enhancements to the OASIS tool, which will be incorporated into the next tool development cycle for the full-scale human-in-the-loop evaluation to be conducted later this year.

decision support tools↗
NASA NTRS2013

Impact of Radiatively Interactive Dust Aerosols in the NASA GEOS-5 Climate Model: Sensitivity to Dust Particle Shape and Refractive Index

We investigate the radiative effects of dust aerosols in the NASA GEOS-5 atmospheric general circulation model. GEOS-5 is improved with the inclusion of a sectional aerosol and cloud microphysics module, the Community Aerosol and Radiation Model for Atmospheres (CARMA). Into CARMA we introduce treatment of the dust and sea salt aerosol lifecycle, including sources, transport evolution, and sinks. The aerosols are radiatively coupled to GEOS-5, and we perform a series of multi-decade AMIP-style simulations in which dust optical properties (spectral refractive index and particle shape distribution) are varied. Optical properties assuming spherical dust particles are from Mie theory, while those for non-spherical shape distributions are drawn from a recently available database for tri-axial ellipsoids. The climatologies of the various simulations generally compare well to data from the MODIS, MISR, and CALIOP space-based sensors, the ground-based AERONET, and surface measurements of dust deposition and concentration. Focusing on the summertime Saharan dust cycle we show significant variability in our simulations resulting from different choices of dust optical properties. Atmospheric heating due to dust enhances surface winds over important Saharan dust sources, and we find a positive feedback where increased dust absorption leads to increased dust emissions. We further find that increased dust absorption leads to a strengthening of the summertime Hadley cell circulation, increasing dust lofting to higher altitudes and strengthening the African Easterly Jet. This leads to a longer atmospheric residence time, higher altitude, and generally more northward transport of dust in simulations with the most absorbing dust optical properties. We find that particle shape, although important for radiance simulations, is a minor effect compared to choices of refractive index, although total atmospheric forcing is enhanced by greater than 10 percent for simulations incorporating a spheroidal shape distribution versus ellipsoidal or spherical shapes.

radiative forcing↗
NASA NTRS2014

Continued Development of the Rapid Cycle Amine (RCA) System for Advanced Extravehicular Activity Systems

Development activities related to the Rapid Cycle Amine (RCA) Carbon Dioxide (CO2) and Humidity control system have progressed to the point of integrating the RCA into an advanced Primary Life Support System (PLSS 2.0) to evaluate the interaction of the RCA among other PLSS components in a ground test environment. The RCA 2.0 assembly (integrated into PLSS 2.0) consists of a valve assembly with commercial actuator motor, a sorbent canister, and a field-programmable gate array (FPGA)-based process node controller. Continued design and development activities for RCA 3.0 have been aimed at optimizing the canister size and incorporating greater fidelity in the valve actuator motor and valve position feedback design. Further, the RCA process node controller is envisioned to incorporate a higher degree of functionality to support a distributed PLSS control architecture. This paper will describe the progression of technology readiness levels of RCA 1.0, 2.0 and 3.0 along with a review of the design and manufacturing successes and challenges for 2.0 and 3.0 units. The anticipated interfaces and interactions with the PLSS 2.0/2.5/3.0 assemblies will also be discussed.

Papale, William↗
NASA NTRS2013

The Challenges in Applying Magnetroesistive Sensors on the 'Curiosity' Rover

Magnetoresistive Sensors were selected for use on the motor encoders throughout the Curiosity Rover for motor position feedback devices. The Rover contains 28 acuators with a corresponding number of encoder assemblies. The environment on Mars provides opportunities for challenges to any hardware design. The encoder assemblies presented several barriers that had to be vaulted in order to say the rover was ready to fly. The environment and encoder specific design features provided challenges that had to be solved in time to fly.

Radioisotope Thermoelectric Gererator (RTG)↗
NASA NTRS2015

Remote Sensing of Cloud Top Heights Using the Research Scanning Polarimeter

Clouds cover roughly two thirds of the globe and act as an important regulator of Earth's radiation budget. Of these, multilayered clouds occur about half of the time and are predominantly two-layered. Changes in cloud top height (CTH) have been predicted by models to have a globally averaged positive feedback, however observational changes in CTH have shown uncertain results. Additional CTH observations are necessary to better and quantify the effect. Improved CTH observations will also allow for improved sub-grid parameterizations in large-scale models and accurate CTH information is important when studying variations in freezing point and cloud microphysics. NASA's airborne Research Scanning Polarimeter (RSP) is able to measure cloud top height using a novel multi-angular contrast approach. RSP scans along the aircraft track and obtains measurements at 152 viewing angles at any aircraft location. The approach presented here aggregates measurements from multiple scans to a single location at cloud altitude using a correlation function designed to identify the location-distinct features in each scan. During NASAs SEAC4RS air campaign, the RSP was mounted on the ER-2 aircraft along with the Cloud Physics Lidar (CPL), which made simultaneous measurements of CTH. The RSPs unique method of determining CTH is presented. The capabilities of using single and combinations of channels within the approach are investigated. A detailed comparison of RSP retrieved CTHs with those of CPL reveal the accuracy of the approach. Results indicate a strong ability for the RSP to accurately identify cloud heights. Interestingly, the analysis reveals an ability for the approach to identify multiple cloud layers in a single scene and estimate the CTH of each layer. Capabilities and limitations of identifying single and multiple cloud layers heights are explored. Special focus is given to sources of error in the method including optically thin clouds, physically thick clouds, multi-layered clouds as well as cloud phase. When determining multi-layered CTHs, limits on the upper clouds opacity are assessed.

Cloud height indicators↗
NASA NTRS2016

The Darkening of the Greenland Ice Sheet: Trends, Drivers and Projections (1981-2100)

The surface energy balance and meltwater production of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) are modulated by snow and ice albedo through the amount of absorbed solar radiation. Here we show, using space-borne multispectral data collected during the 3 decades from 1981 to 2012, that summertime surface albedo over the GrIS decreased at a statistically significant (99 %) rate of 0.02 decade(sup -1) between 1996 and 2012. Over the same period, albedo modelled by the Modele Atmospherique Regionale (MAR) also shows a decrease, though at a lower rate (approximately -0.01 decade(sup -1)) than that obtained from space-borne data. We suggest that the discrepancy between modelled and measured albedo trends can be explained by the absence in the model of processes associated with the presence of light-absorbing impurities. The negative trend in observed albedo is confined to the regions of the GrIS that undergo melting in summer, with the dry snow zone showing no trend. The period 1981-1996 also showed no statistically significant trend over the whole GrIS. Analysis of MAR outputs indicates that the observed albedo decrease is attributable to the combined effects of increased near-surface air temperatures, which enhanced melt and promoted growth in snow grain size and the expansion of bare ice areas, and to trends in light-absorbing impurities (LAI) on the snow and ice surfaces. Neither aerosol models nor in situ and remote sensing observations indicate increasing trends in LAI in the atmosphere over Greenland. Similarly, an analysis of the number of fires and BC emissions from fires points to the absence of trends for such quantities. This suggests that the apparent increase of LAI in snow and ice might be related to the exposure of a "dark band" of dirty ice and to increased consolidation of LAI at the surface with melt, not to increased aerosol deposition. Albedo projections through to the end of the century under different warming scenarios consistently point to continued darkening, with albedo anomalies averaged over the whole ice sheet lower by 0.08 in 2100 than in 2000, driven solely by a warming climate. Future darkening is likely underestimated because of known underestimates in modelled melting (as seen in hindcasts) and because the model albedo scheme does not currently include the effects of LAI, which have a positive feedback on albedo decline through increased melting, grain growth, and darkening.

surface energy↗