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DOE OSTI2022

Life after 30 years - a PV system in Colorado

The PV system consisted of 155 monocrystalline Si Arco M53 panels, installed in 1987. 80 were installed on a fixed tilt rack, and 75 on 5 separate dual-axis passive trackers. The system was decommissioned in 2017 due a campus re-design and building expansion at the Platte River Power Authority (PPRA) site. Prior to decommissioning a site visit established the following failure type observations: EVA browning (100%), cracked cells (60%), and cracked wires or grommets (9%, or more if replacements were made selectively on cracked parts). EVA browning is typical in modules of this vintage, whereas the occurrence of so many cracked cells is surprising and is likely weather-related. The fairly frequent occurrence of cracked wires and grommets serves as a reminder that accelerated testing of these components is important for goals of low-cost 50-year energy generation. In smaller numbers, thermal effects (7%), bent frames (1%), and cell corrosion (<1%) were observed. A sample of 20 modules was selected and brought to NREL for in-depth characterization. Because baseline measurements were not available using the nameplate rating, which can be inaccurate, revealed a mean module sample degradation of 0.7 %/year. Sporadic production data during the 30 years determined a system degradation rate closer to 1.2 %/year. Subsequently, four of these modules were re-mounted outdoors at NREL and are now approaching a total lifetime of 34 years.

durability↗
DOE OSTI2026

Artificial Intelligence Thermostat to Detect Faults

Residential air conditioners and heat pumps often experience faults due to inadequate maintenance, which can severely reduce efficiency or even cause system failure. Common issues include dirty or clogged air filters and refrigerant leaks. These problems degrade performance and increase energy use and operating costs. This study presents a smart thermostat with embedded artificial intelligence to detect such faults and alert homeowners when maintenance is needed. The thermostat uses low-cost measurements—including return-air temperature, relative humidity, supply-air temperature, outdoor-air temperature, and condenser subcooling—to identify abnormal operations. Because different faults produce distinct response patterns, tailored algorithms are developed to recognize characteristic fault signatures. The investigation is built on a detailed co-simulation platform that couples EnergyPlus with the DOE/ORNL Heat Pump Design Model (HPDM). EnergyPlus represents the building’s dynamic environment, while HPDM is a high-fidelity, hardware-based model that can simulate fault-free performance as well as a wide range of faults, including gradual degradation such as minor refrigerant leakage. This platform provides a virtual training and testing environment that helps distinguish fault-induced behavior from normal operation and supports development of robust diagnostic algorithms. Using this framework, a Dynamic Bayesian Network was developed to identify two common faults—gradual refrigerant charge loss and indoor airflow blockage—and the AI-embedded thermostat was verified through annual building simulations.

Shen, Bo [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000336600393)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Performance Assessment of a Dual-purpose HP-TES for a Typical Year Comparing Different Climate Zones

Complete electrification of heating and cooling systems in the United States would overload the existing electrical grid. To this end, recent research efforts have focused on energy storage as one way to reduce ever-increasing peak electricity demands. One such technology is heat pump integrated thermal-energy storage (HP-TES) systems, which can enable load-shifting and reduce demand during peak hours. In this work, a Modelica model of a 4-Ton, dual-mode (heating and cooling) HP-TES system using a room-temperature phase-change material (PCM) integrated through a secondary hydronic loop was developed and simulated for a typical meteorological year in Riverside, CA (ASHRAE Climate Zone 2B), and Chicago, IL (ASHRAE Climate Zone 5A), for a DOE small office prototype building. The COP improvement and demand reduction were analyzed during the time-of-use peak hours along with the required recharge cycle energy demand. A typical summer in Riverside, CA resulted in model-predicted peak COP increases of 50 – 100% compared to the baseline heat pump, especially at higher outdoor temperatures, coupled with maximum peak energy reductions of 22%. During shoulder and winter season simulations, heating energy savings were higher as outdoor temperatures dropped below the PCM phase change temperature. For Chicago, IL, backup heating was necessary to meet the required system capacity for very cold ambient conditions, resulting in winter peak energy savings between 16 – 60% when accounting for backup heating requirements. The recharge energy was found to be mostly below the baseline HP energy during the peak. With improved component selections and controls, the recharge energy may be reduced. The outcomes from the simulations can provide first-order estimates for potential peak energy savings, challenges, and required controls in any location before conducting any field testing.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

A novel approach to build algal consortia for sustainable biomass production

In the last decade, microalgae have reemerged as a feedstock for biofuels and a diverse suite of bioproducts. Yet, considerable challenges must be overcome before algal biofuels and bioproducts become technoeconomically viable. At present, single algal strain selected for particular phenotypic traits, such as maximum specific growth rate or lipid content, are commonly scaled for cultivation in open, outdoor raceway ponds due to the low capital costs of these systems. Although this monoculture approach may maximize the production of end products, monocultures are particularly susceptible to crashes associated with environmental and biological variability. An approach that has been proposed to generate more productive and stable microalgal crops is the use of eco-engineered communities, or consortia. Yet, attempts to construct productive consortia have not been consistently successful. We argue that failures stem from the lack of an eco-engineering approach to design species combinations. Here, we used an in silico method to build consortia before testing their performance against monocultures. Focusing on consortia of Nannochloropsis and Microchloropsis, we measured growth of strains along gradients of light, temperature, and salinity and used a functional dispersion approach to generate over 8000 functionally-diverse consortia combinations. We tested the 50 most functionally diverse consortia in a laboratory experiment and found that consortia overwhelmingly outperformed monocultures. Indeed, overyielding (OY) and a positive net biodiversity effect (NBE) was found respetively in 8%-86% and 88-92% of consortia combinations over the different experimental phases. To our knowledge, this is the first application of an in silico approach to design functionally diverse consortia before laboratory and field testing. Furthermore, our results highlight the importance of employing a functional diversity approach for consortia design.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

An experimental study on round-trip efficiency of a preheating control with a medium office building

The interactions between building energy efficiency and demand response (DR) with buildings may complicate their impacts on the electricity grid and buildings, yet those interactions are not well understood. This work fills this gap by presenting an experimental study that quantifies the effects of DR on building energy efficiency. Unlike existing studies, this work 1) investigates the uncertainty levels when assessing the effects of DR; 2) studies the impact of rooftop heat pumps with direct expansion refrigerant-to-air coils on the round-trip efficiency. Specifically, we considered a medium office building (~1860 m 2 ), which is served by rooftop units, located in eastern Washington State. We performed preheating control tests during typical heating days in the year 2022 and compared the building’s energy consumption during the testing days to that during normal operation days under similar weather conditions. To understand how well those normal operation days represent the baseline for the assessment, the relationship between the energy performance of this building and weather conditions was also studied. Experimental results reveal that the round-trip efficiency (i.e., the ratio of discharging energy output from the building to charging energy input into the building) was between 0.16 and 0.92. The results show that significant energy loss may occur during the preheating process. Finally, it also suggests a significant correlation between the energy efficiency of the studied building under the preheating control and the outdoor temperature; and a highly nonlinear relationship between the zone temperature changing rate and the weather condition.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine Learning-Driven Reliability Estimation of PV Inverters Considering Alert-Ambient Variability

Weather-induced spatio-temporal degradation limits outdoor PV inverter lifetime and reliability, necessitating advanced data analysis. This study employs a top-down, data-driven approach utilizing multiple machine learning (ML) algorithms to estimate inverter reliability in a 1.4 MW PV power plant, considering factors such as irradiance, humidity, temperature, time of day, and weather conditions. An extensive alert dataset from 17 identical inverters, including alert types, propagation, and frequency, reveals significant correlations with environmental factors and inverter output power, enabling the construction of a performance reliability model. Dual-stage supervised-ML models are evaluated for accuracy, with the ‘classification-regression’ model by an artificial neural network (ANN) tested on the averaged “Alert-Ambient” dataset, which is outperformed by ‘clustering-regression’ models using random forest (RF) and K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) on individual inverter datasets. K-means clustering applies principal component analysis to reduce dimensions, achieving improved accuracy beyond the 80% achieved by ANN on the averaged dataset. Second-stage regression estimates inverter reliability with a mean square error of 0.0195 on the averaged dataset and as low as 0.002 on individual inverter datasets using RF. Furthermore, these findings highlight the method's suitability for estimating PV inverter output reliability under ambient conditions, essential for digital twin development and related applications.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Energy and Operational Impacts of Using 0-10V Control for LED Streetlights

Lighting systems have historically utilized either a proprietary control method, or one of a handful of standardized methods (e.g., 0-10V, DALI, DMX512) aimed at facilitating vendor interoperability. The utility and market success of the standardized methods has been limited for a variety of reasons. Although 0-10V is presently the most commonly available control interface for indoor and outdoor products in North America – even after the emergence of LED products and “connected lighting systems” with more modern network interfaces and luminaire-level sensors and intelligence – the use of 0-10V methods has significant tradeoffs. For instance, it is difficult to predict relative luminaire light output and input power at any particular control voltage, and performance across luminaires is inconsistent. This study characterizes 23 LED streetlights that claimed dimmability via a 0-10V interface, quantifies the performance variation found in market-available LED drivers, and explores the potential impact of the most recent 0-10V voluntary standard (ANSI C137.1-2022). Notably, the tested products were all manufactured prior to the release of this standard, and thus do not make compliance claims. Variation in response to 0-10V control voltages was expected to be more significant across different make/model luminaires than different units of the same make/model; the test population was structured based on this expectation. The 23 tested luminaires comprised 21 unique make/model streetlights from 14 different manufacturers. Three samples of one make/model streetlight were included in the test population to facilitate a limited exploration of unit-to-unit variation. The 21 unique make/model luminaires contained 20 unique make/model LED drivers from eight different driver manufacturers. Luminaire input power and current were measured at 11 control voltages (0.5 V and 1–10 V in 1 V increments).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Diagnosis of PV Cell Passivation Degradation Resulting from Hot-Humid, High Voltage Potential Aging

Corrosion of the antireflective coating on the cell ("AR c corrosion") was previously observed in studies using hot-humid test conditions with external high voltage (HV) bias. Because AR c corrosion is not well understood, mini-modules (MiMos) were examined in a comparative experiment using PERC and PERT as well as legacy Al-BSF cells. For separate MiMos with the cell circuit electrical at +1500 V, -1500 V, or unbiased "V oc", test conditions in the comparative study included 60degrees C/60% RH for 96 h, as in IEC TS 62804-1; 70degrees C/70%RH for 200 h; and 85degrees C/85% RH for 200 h. Characterizations at each read point included: camera and electroluminescence (EL) imaging, colorimetry, and I-V curve tracing. Characterizations at the final read point included: SunsVoc; spatially mapping external quantum efficiency (EQE); high resolution: photoluminescence (PL), EL, and dark lock-in thermographic (DLIT) imaging. Forensics were performed on extracted cores, including scanning electron microscopy (SEM) with energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS) and scanning Auger microscopy (SAM). Forensics were also conducted on MiMos (stepped HV aging) and full-sized modules (outdoor aging) from previous studies. AR c corrosion was specifically observed for the glass/encapsulant/cell side of +1500 V (HV+) stressed MiMos, where appearance, color, and reflectance were the characteristics most distinguished relative to simultaneously occurring degradation modes. SEM/EDS and SAM identified conversion of silicon nitride to silicon oxide or hydrous silica, preferentially occurring at the edges and tips of the pyramidal textured cell surface.

aging↗
DOE OSTI2023

Rear-Side Irradiance Simulation of Field PV Modules: Preprint

Assessing the durability of photovoltaic (PV) module backsheet is critical to increasing module lifetime. Historically, laboratory-based accelerated testing has insufficient in predicting large-scale failures of commercial polymeric materials. Additionally, there is growing concern that standard condition tests do not reflect non-uniformities in field exposure, and that certain modules experience more severe degradation due to their location. Anisotropy in field exposures is installation dependent and reflects different levels of exposure to irradiance due to mounting geometry, ground surface albedo, and climatic zone. "Bificial Radiance" [1], simulates the amount of reflected irradiance on the Polyethylene Naphthalate (PEN) backsheet of a PV array located in Maryland. In our work, site specific weather data are gathered for the entire length of exposure for the modules. The total full-spectrum dose for the incident irradiance on the backsheet was then determined. The simulation results are integrated with historical field survey data to better understand realworld outdoor degradation.

backsheet↗
DOE OSTI2023

Rear-Side Irradiance Simulation of Field PV Modules

Assessing the durability of photovoltaic (PV) module backsheet is critical to increasing module lifetime. Historically, laboratory-based accelerated testing has insufficient in predicting large-scale failures of commercial polymeric materials. Additionally, there is growing concern that standard condition tests do not reflect non-uniformities in field exposure, and that certain modules experience more severe degradation due to their location. Anisotropy in field exposures is installation-dependent and reflects different levels of exposure to irradiance due to mounting geometry, ground surface albedo, and climatic zone. "Bificial_Radiance" [1], simulates the amount of reflected irradiance on the Polyethylene Naphthalate (PEN) backsheet of a PV array located in Maryland. In our work, site specific weather data are gathered for the entire length of exposure for the modules. The total full-spectrum dose for the incident irradiance on the backsheet was then determined. The simulation results are integrated with historical field survey data to better understand real orld outdoor degradation.

backsheet↗
DOE OSTI2024

Experimental and Modeled Assessment of Interventions to Reduce PM2.5 in a Residence during a Wildfire Event

Increasingly large and frequent wildfires affect air quality even indoors by emitting and dispersing fine/ultrafine particulate matter known to pose health risks to residents. With this health threat, we are working to help the building science community develop simplified tools that may be used to estimate impacts to large numbers of homes based on high-level housing characteristics. In addition to reviewing literature sources, we performed an experiment to evaluate interventions to mitigate degraded indoor air quality. We instrumented one residence for one week during an extreme wildfire event in the Pacific Northwest. Outdoor ambient concentrations of PM2.5 reached historic levels, sustained at over 200 μg/m3 for multiple days. Outdoor and indoor PM2.5 were monitored, and data regarding building characteristics, infiltration, and mechanical system operation were gathered to be consistent with the type of information commonly known for residential energy models. Two conditions were studied: a high-capture minimum efficiency rated value (MERV 13) filter integrated into a central forced air (CFA) system, and a CFA with MERV 13 filtration operating with a portable air cleaner (PAC). With intermittent CFA operation and no PAC, indoor corrected concentrations of PM2.5 reached 280 μg/m3, and indoor/outdoor (I/O) ratios reached a mean of 0.55. The measured I/O ratio was reduced to a mean of 0.22 when both intermittent CFA and the PAC were in operation. Data gathered from the test home were used in a modeling exercise to assess expected I/O ratios from both interventions. The mean modeled I/O ratio for the CFA with an MERV 13 filter was 0.48, and 0.28 when the PAC was added. The model overpredicted the MERV 13 performance and underpredicted the CFA with an MERV 13 filter plus a PAC, though both conditions were predicted within 0.15 standard deviation. The results illustrate the ways that models can be used to estimate indoor PM2.5 concentrations in residences during extreme wildfire smoke events.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗
DOE OSTI2026

Experimental Evaluation of a High-Performance Cold-Climate Heat Pump Using Tandem Vapor-Injection Compressors

A high-performance cold-climate heat pump (CCHP) was developed and experimentally validated through comprehensive laboratory and field testing. The system utilized two equal-size tandem vapor-injection (VI) compressors with an inter-stage flash tank to improve efficiency and capacity retention under subfreezing conditions. Laboratory testing was conducted on a 3-ton prototype in a controlled environmental chamber equipped with calibrated thermocouples, refrigerant-side mass flow and pressure transducers, and precision airflow measurement for energy balance verification. The prototype achieved heating coefficients of performance (COPs) of 4.4 at 47 °F, 3.1 at 17 °F, and 2.0 at –13 °F, while maintaining 88% of its rated heating capacity at –13°F. These results confirm strong low-temperature performance and indicate the potential for significant reductions in electric resistance backup use. A field prototype was installed and monitored in a residential building in Fairbanks, Alaska, during a heating season. Instrumentation included real-time power, temperature, and refrigerant state measurements to evaluate performance under dynamic outdoor conditions. The heat pump operated reliably down to –30 °F, delivering 75% of its rated heating capacity with a COP of 1.8, while maintaining stable operation, effective defrost control, and indoor comfort without auxiliary heating. The combined laboratory and field results demonstrate that the tandem VI compressor configuration provides a practical and energy-efficient approach for residential heat pumps designed for cold and very cold climate regions.

Hu, Yifeng [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000242875185)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Diagnosis of PV Cell Antireflective Coating Degradation Resulting From Hot-Humid High-Voltage Potential Aging

Corrosion of the antireflective coating on a photovoltaic cell ("ARc corrosion") has previously been observed in studies using hot-humid test conditions with external high-voltage (HV) bias. This study primarily focuses on known vulnerable legacy aluminum back surface field cells in mini-modules (MiMos) put through comparative stepped stress tests. Each cell type had MiMos at +1500 V, -1500 V, or unbiased ("Voc") potential, which were sequentially subjected to test conditions of 60 degrees C/60% relative humidity (RH) for 96 h, as in International Electrotechnical Commission Technical Specification 62804-1; 70 degrees C/70% RH for 200 h; and 85 degrees C/85% RH for 200 h. Characterizations at each step included visual camera and electroluminescence (EL) imaging, colorimetry, and current-voltage curve tracing. Final characterizations included: Suns-Voc, spatial mapping of external quantum efficiency, high-resolution photoluminescence, EL, and dark lock-in thermography imaging. Forensics were performed on extracted cores, including scanning electron microscopy (SEM) with energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS), X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, and scanning Auger microscopy (SAM). Forensics were also conducted on MiMos from previous studies that underwent stepped HV aging and separate outdoor aged full-sized modules. ARc corrosion was specifically seen for the glass/encapsulant/cell side of the +1500 V (HV+) stressed MiMos and modules. Appearance, color, and reflectance were the most distinguishing characteristics relative to glass corrosion, gridline corrosion and delamination, and other concurrent degradation modes. SEM/EDS and SAM identified the conversion of silicon nitride to hydrated silica, hydrous silica, or hydrated amorphous silica, which preferentially occurred at the edges and tips of the pyramidal textured cell surface.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Diagnosis of PV Cell Antireflective Coating Degradation Resulting from Hot-Humid, High Voltage Potential Aging

Corrosion of the antireflective coating on a photovoltaic cell ("ARc corrosion") has previously been observed in studies using hot-humid test conditions with external high-voltage (HV) bias. This study primarily focuses on known vulnerable, legacy aluminum back surface field (Al-BSF) cells in mini-modules (MiMos) put through comparative stepped stress tests. Each cell type had MiMos at +1500 V, -1500 V, or unbiased ("Voc") potential, which were sequentially subjected to test conditions of 60deg C/60% relative humidity (RH) for 96 h, as in International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) Technical Specification 62804-1; 70 deg C/70% RH for 200 h; and 85 deg C/85% RH for 200 h. Characterizations at each step included visual camera and electroluminescence (EL) imaging, colorimetry, and current-voltage (I-V) curve tracing. Final characterizations included: Suns-Voc; spatial mapping of external quantum efficiency (EQE); high-resolution photoluminescence (PL), EL, and dark lock-in thermography (DLIT) imaging. Forensics were performed on extracted cores, including scanning electron microscopy (SEM) with energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS), X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), and scanning Auger microscopy (SAM). Forensics were also conducted on MiMos from previous studies that underwent stepped HV aging and separate outdoor aged full-sized modules. ARc corrosion was specifically seen for the glass/encapsulant/cell side of the +1500V (HV+) stressed MiMos and modules. Appearance, color, and reflectance were the most distinguishing characteristics relative to glass corrosion, gridline-corrosion and -delamination as well as other concurrent degradation modes. SEM/EDS and SAM identified conversion of silicon nitride to hydrated silica, hydrous silica, or hydrated amorphous silica, which preferentially occurred at the edges and tips of the pyramidal textured cell surface.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Optimizing Selection Pressures and Pest Management to Maximize Cultivation Yield (OSPREY) (Final Technical Report)

This project was proposed in response to AOI 1, Cultivation Intensification Processes for Algae, within the FY19 Bioenergy Technologies Office Multi-Topic Funding Opportunity Announcement (FOA Number: DE-FOA-0002029). The work was designed to address a critical industry need to improve annualized productivity, stability, and quality of algal production strains for biofuels and bioproducts. The overall project goals were to generate process innovations rooted in established outdoor systems for strain selection, improvement, maintenance, and cultivation as well as pest detection and tracking. Planned advances included a 50% improvement in harvest yield based on AFDW (g m 2 d -1 ), 50% improvement in robustness based on stability metrics (e.g., high-productivity cultivation days, pond uptime), and 20% improvement in conversion yield. Individually, each of our planned process improvements (e.g., pest tracking) had the potential to increase productivity. However, to realize increases in yield at the system level, improvements to one unit’s process must be balanced against potential effects on other processes. For example, changes to strains, cultivation, and pest management developed in isolation may hurt other unit operations. Therefore, a critical success factor of the project was the integration of the pipeline components, achieved through iterative field-to- (short term) lab testing. In addition, through sustainability models, we evaluated how improvements would alter industry scenarios.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Water Splitting: Emergent Degradation Phenomena Demonstrated on Resilient, Flexible, and Scalable Integrated Photoelectrochemical Cells (Adv. Energy Mater. 48/2020)

We report Photoelectrochemical (PEC) water splitting provides a pathway to generate sustainable clean fuels using the two most abundant resources on Earth: sunlight and water. Currently, most of the successful models of PEC cells are still fabricated on small scales near 1 cm 2 , which largely limits the mass deployment of solar-fuel production. Here, the scale-up to 8 cm 2 of an integrated PEC (IPEC) device is demonstrated and its performance compared to a 1 cm 2 IPEC cell, using state-of-the-art iridium and platinum catalysts with III-V photoabsorbers. The initial photocurrents at 1 sun were 8 and 7 mA cm -2 with degradation rates of 0.60 and 0.47 mA cm -2 day -1 , during unbiased operation for the 1 and 8 cm 2 devices, respectively. Evaluating under outdoor and indoor conditions at two US National Laboratories revealed similar results, evidencing the reproducibility of this design’s performance. Furthermore, the emerging degradation mechanisms during scale-up are investigated and the knowledge gained from this work will provide feedback to the broader community, since PEC device durability is a limiting factor in its potential future deployment.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Emergent Degradation Phenomena Demonstrated on Resilient, Flexible, and Scalable Integrated Photoelectrochemical Cells

Photoelectrochemical (PEC) water splitting provides a pathway to generate sustainable clean fuels using the two most abundant resources on Earth: sunlight and water. Currently, most of the successful models of PEC cells are still fabricated on small scales near 1 cm 2 , which largely limits the mass deployment of solar-fuel production. Here, the scale-up to 8 cm 2 of an integrated PEC (IPEC) device is demonstrated and its performance compared to a 1 cm 2 IPEC cell, using state-of-the-art iridium and platinum catalysts with III–V photoabsorbers. The initial photocurrents at 1 sun are 8 and 7 mA cm -2 with degradation rates of 0.60 and 0.47 mA cm -2 day -1 , during unbiased operation for the 1 and 8 cm 2 devices, respectively. Additionally, evaluating under outdoor and indoor conditions at two U.S. National Laboratories reveals similar results, evidencing the reproducibility of this design's performance. Furthermore, the emerging degradation mechanisms during scale-up are investigated and the knowledge gained from this work will provide feedback to the broader community, since PEC device durability is a limiting factor in its potential future deployment.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Sensitivity Analysis of Drivers Water Shortage in the Los Angeles Region During Drought

The code and detailed step-by-step instructions for generating the model output data, processing results, and analysis and plotting are provided at https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/Ferencz_et_al_2026_ER_Water. The PyArtes model is a python adaptation of the Artes model. PyArtes uses many of the same input data and optimization model architecture as Artes. Documentation for the PyArtes model is provided in the Supplement to the paper. The primary data product are simulated monthly water shortages for indoor and outdoor demand under a large ensemble of drought scenarios (>13,000). The droughts are hypothetical and are not based on historical time series data of supply sources - though historical data did help inform ranges explored for supply parameters. Demands are informed by recent 2017-2021 water supply data. Demands used for the model can be accessed at https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/Ferencz_et_al_2026_ER_Water. Simulations resolve demand for over 90 water providers in the study region. The results report 36 months of water shortage data for each indoor and outdoor demand node. The study also developed a multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network trained on a subset of the simulated shortage ensemble to emulate worst annual water shortage for a given set of parameter multipliers -- provided the parameter values fall within the ranges sampled in the ensemble. Emulated water shortages for synthetic ensembles are in the MLP-generated shortages folder. The MLP model was used to generate larger ensembles to support Sobol analysis that would have been extremely computationally expensive to simulate. Datasets provided in this repository*: Simulated shortages. These results are used for the analysis for Figures 5, 8, and 9 in the paper, and also to train the MLP emulator. .zip file containing outputs for the 13,312 scenario ensemble. Separate .csv files for indoor and outdoor shortage for each scenario. Rows = demand ids (~100), Columns = months (36) Units = acre-feet/month of shortage (shortage = monthly demand - supply). 1 acft = 1233.48 m^3 .csv files of aggregated shortages derived from the 13,312 ensemble Rows = scenarios (13,312), Columns = demand ids (~100) Units = acre-feet/year (either worst annual shortage or total shortage over the 3-year drought) .csv file of the parameter multipliers scenarios for the ensemble .csv file of the parameter ranges and baseline values the multipliers were applied to MLP-generated shortages. These results are used for Figures 4, 6, and 7 in the paper. mwd higher folder: scenario ensembles, emulated worst year total shortages (acft), and Sobol results Emulated shortages. Rows = scenarios, columns = demand ids, units acft Sobol results. Rows = demand ids, columns Sobol (S1, ST, or 95% confidence interval) value for each parameter mwd lower folder: scenario ensembles, emulated worst year total shortages (acft), and Sobol results same organization as mwd higher MLP performance: performance metrics (R^2, RMSE, BIAS, MAPE) for the testing subset (20% or 2,662 scenarios) and simulated vs emulated worst year shortage (acre-feet/year) for every demand node, MWD wholesale regions, and the entire study region (LAC). Supporting data for figures. Figure plotting scripts in the associated GitHub repo. These files support analysis and visualization. Geospatial Data used for plotting simulated water shortages and Sobol results. Dictionary of full names for demand nodes in the model and estimates of water supply by source type informed by Artes input files and California Urban Water Management Planning data: https://water.ca.gov/Programs/Water-Use-And-Efficiency/Urban-Water-Use-Efficiency/Urban-Water-Management-Plans *Readme files provided for each folder.

drought↗