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At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Southwest Pacific tropical cyclone development classification utilizing machine learning and synoptic composites

This study evaluates the ability of machine learning algorithms to classify tropical depressions (TDs) and tropical storms (TSs) in the western region of the southwest Pacific Ocean (SWPO). Decision rules are generated to predict the environment required for a depression to fully develop into a mature storm, and the most influential predictors in the classification decision are ranked. TD and TS are discriminated based on a maximum sustained wind speed threshold (≥17 ms -1 ). Various aerosol, thermodynamic, and dynamic parameters are extracted closest to the initiation point of each non-developing and developing sample. The covariates associated with each labelled sample are used to train a decision tree and random forest model. Results using a testing dataset suggest the random forest approach more accurately distinguishes between non-developing and developing samples. The classification accuracy of the decision tree and random forest are 72% and 91%, respectively. Random forest outperformed the decision tree by providing higher accuracy in test data. The most important variables for binary classification are sea salt aerosol optical depth (AOD), 1,000 mb relative humidity, and sea surface temperature. AOD is a quantitative estimate of the aerosols presents in the air through the extinction of a ray of light as it passes through the atmosphere. Mean composite maps constructed in an unsupervised manner have been created for the most important variables identified by the random forest classifier during TD and TS events to highlight the difference in geophysical and aerosol variables' climatology during the two different classifications. This work will advance the risk management strategies for northeastern Australia and other SWPO basin islands to control their tropical cyclone related losses through prioritizing forecasting variables that are the strongest predictors of the strengthening of tropical depressions into tropical cyclones.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Intraspecific Diversity in Thermal Performance Determines Phytoplankton Ecological Niche

ABSTRACT Temperature has a primary influence on phytoplankton physiology and ecology. We grew 12 strains of Gephyrocapsa huxleyi isolated from different‐temperature regions for ~45 generations (2 months) and characterised acclimated thermal response curves across a temperature range. Even with similar temperature optima and overlapping cell size, strain growth rates varied between 0.45 and 1 day −1 . Thermal niche widths varied from 16.7°C to 24.8°C, suggesting that strains use distinct thermal response mechanisms. We investigated the implications of this thermal intraspecific diversity using an ocean ecosystem simulation resolving phytoplankton thermal phenotypes. Model analogues of thermal ‘generalists’ and ‘specialists’ resulted in a distinctive global biogeography of thermal niche widths with a nonlinear latitudinal pattern. We leveraged model output to predict ranges of the 12 lab‐reared strains and demonstrated how this approach could broadly refine geographic range predictions. Our combination of observations and modelled biogeography highlights the capacity of diverse groups to survive temperature shifts.

Krinos, Arianna I. [Department of Biology Woods Ho↗
DOE OSTI2025

On the Dependence of Simulated Convection on Domain Size in CRMs

Abstract We present a heuristic model to explain the suppression of deep convection in convection‐resolving models (CRMs) with a small number of grid columns, such as those used in super‐parameterized or multi‐scale modeling framework (MMF) general circulation models (GCM) of the atmosphere. Domains with few grid columns require greater instability to sustain convection because they force a large convective fraction, driving strong compensating subsidence warming. Updraft dilution, which is stronger for reduced horizontal grid spacing, enhances this effect. Thus, suppression of deep convection in CRMs with few grid columns can be reduced by increasing grid spacing. Radiative‐convective equilibrium simulations using standalone CRM simulations with the System for Atmospheric Modeling (SAM) and using GCM‐coupled CRM simulations with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM)‐MMF confirm the heuristic model results.

CRM↗
DOE OSTI2026

China's Contribution to Arctic Black Carbon Declined From 2009 to 2022

Black carbon (BC) aerosol is an important driver of Arctic warming, and China used to be a major contributor to the Arctic BC burden through long-range atmospheric transport. Here we show that China's contribution declined significantly from 2009 to 2022, primarily due to reductions in domestic BC emissions following the implementation of clean air policies. Global chemistry-transport model simulations indicate a relative decline of ∼3% yr −1 ( p < 0.05) in China's Arctic BC contribution, exceeding the decrease rate in the underlying emission inventory. Sensitivity simulations further suggest that climate change-induced shifts in atmospheric transport may have amplified this decline. Observations of aerosol absorption coefficients (σ ap ) at Arctic background observatories revealed steeper declines in σ ap when modeled China-to-total BC ratios were higher. Moreover, σ ap correlated positively with modeled BC from China, with stronger relationships as the modeled China-to-total BC ratios increased. Together, these results provide robust evidence that China's emission reductions have diminished its role in Arctic BC, contributing an estimated 0.02 W m −2 decrease in the direct radiative effect during the Arctic haze season.

GEOS-chem model↗
DOE OSTI2025

Remote Influence of Andean Convection on Amazonian Rainfall and Its Mechanisms

Models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 produce too much precipitation over the Andes but too little over the Amazon or the Wet Andes-Dry Amazon (WADA) bias pattern. Unlike the conventional view that convection parameterization and land model deficiencies can contribute to Amazonian rainfall biases, we approach this long-standing biased model behavior through the lens of Andean convection. Using Community Earth System Model v1.1 and focusing on the wet season, our mechanism-denial experiments demonstrate that Andean convection notably reduces precipitation over the Amazon during austral summer. The Andean forced Amazonian response operates on weather timescale. Furthermore, the reduction of Amazonian rainfall is detectable within a few hours after initial Andean forcing. The precipitation response is primarily driven by variations in the moisture budget and is moderated by changes in convective available potential energy over the Amazon. Changes in the total advection of moisture over the Amazon are dominated by the vertical advection term and can be attributed to discrepancies in the dynamic omega field. In the experiments, the Andean east flank region is scrutinized where the vertical velocity and moisture fields play an intermediary role for the Andean driven WADA connection. The Andean forcing induces descending anomalies on the Andean east flank. The disturbances of wind and geopotential fields over the Andean east flank propagate eastward via Kelvin waves. Over the Amazon, descending anomalies and advective drying lead to reduction of mid-to-high level cloud, increase of shortwave cloud forcing and surface net radiation, and enhancement of themodynamic stability and rainfall reduction.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Aerosol and Cloud Experiments in the Eastern North Atlantic (ACE-ENA)

With their extensive coverage, marine low clouds greatly impact global climate. Presently, marine low clouds are poorly represented in global climate models, and the response of marine low clouds to changes in atmospheric greenhouse gases and aerosols remains the major source of uncertainty in climate simulations. The Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) is a region of persistent but diverse subtropical marine boundary layer clouds, whose albedo and precipitation are highly susceptible to perturbations in aerosol properties. In addition, the ENA is periodically impacted by continental aerosols, making it an excellent location to study the cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) budget in a remote marine region periodically perturbed by anthropogenic emissions, and to investigate the impacts of long-range transport of aerosols on remote marine clouds. The Aerosol and Cloud Experiments in Eastern North Atlantic (ACE-ENA) campaign was motivated by the need of comprehensive in-situ measurements for improving the understanding of marine boundary layer CCN budget, cloud and drizzle microphysics, and the impact of aerosol on marine low cloud and precipitation. The airborne deployments took place from June 21 to July 20, 2017 and January 15 to February 18, 2018 in the Azores. The flights were designed to maximize the synergy between in-situ airborne measurements and ongoing long-term observations at a ground site. Here we present measurements, observation strategy, meteorological conditions during the campaign, and preliminary findings. Lastly, we discuss future analyses and modeling studies that improve the understanding and representation of marine boundary layer aerosols, clouds, precipitation, and the interactions among them.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

TRACER Perspectives on Gulf-Breeze and Bay-Breeze Circulations and Coastal Convection

Abstract This study explores gulf-breeze circulations (GBCs) and bay-breeze circulations (BBCs) in Houston–Galveston, investigating their characteristics, large-scale weather influences, and impacts on surface properties, boundary layer updrafts, and convective clouds. The results are derived from a combination of datasets, including satellite observations, ground-based measurements, and reanalysis datasets, using machine learning, changepoint detection method, and Lagrangian cell tracking. We find that anticyclonic synoptic patterns during the summer months (June–September) favor GBC/BBC formation and the associated convective cloud development, representing 74% of cases. The main Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions Experiment (TRACER) site located close to the Galveston Bay is influenced by both GBC and BBC, with nearly half of the cases showing evident BBC features. The site experiences early frontal passages ranging from 1040 to 1630 local time (LT), with 1300 LT being the most frequent. These fronts are stronger than those observed at the ancillary site which is located further inland from the Galveston Bay, including larger changes in surface temperature, moisture, and wind speed. Furthermore, these fronts trigger boundary layer updrafts, likely promoting isolated convective precipitating cores that are short lived (average convective lifetime of 63 min) and slow moving (average propagation speed of 5 m s −1 ), primarily within 20–40 km from the coast.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

GNSS-based Vegetation Optical Depth, Tree Sway, and Evapotranspiration data from the Niwot Ridge Subalpine Forest (US-NR1) AmeriFlux site

This data package contains data and information about Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS)-based Vegetation Optical Depth (VOD), tree sway motion, and eddy-covariance evapotranspiration (ET) data collected at the Niwot Ridge Subalpine Forest AmeriFlux site (US-NR1). The raw GNSS data were collected between May 2022 and August 2023. Other processed datasets such as tree sway motion and ET data are also included. The goal was to study the water content within a subalpine forest and, more specifically, examine the canopy evaporation process. This data archive includes all data that were used within the following Biogeosciences discussion paper that further summarizes the research objectives and conclusions:Burns, S.P., V. Humphrey, E.D. Gutmann, M.S. Raleigh, D.R. Bowling, and P.D. Blanken, 2025: Using GNSS-based vegetation optical depth, tree sway motion, and eddy-covariance to examine evaporation of canopy-intercepted rainfall in a subalpine forest. EGUsphere [preprint],https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1755This data archive also supplements the 30-min Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) AmeriFlux dataset for US-NR1 (i.e., https://doi.org/10.17190/AMF/1246088) and updates what was in the 2020 ESS-DIVE US-NR1 archive (https://doi.org/10.15485/1671825) to include data from the years 2020-2025. More specifically, the following updates are provided: (i) five-minute statistics (means, variances, covariances) of all data measured by the US-NR1 data system between Sep 2020 and Jun 2025 in netCDF format, (ii) the electronic logbook of US-NR1 site visits, (iii) a web calendar (in HTML format) documenting activity at the site (a replica of https://urquell.colorado.edu/calendar/), (iv) photos taken at the site between years 2020 and present day (Aug 2025), and (v) several auxiliary datasets, primary related to trees near the site, soil properties, soil moisture and soil temperature, and subcanopy radiation data. The data package is setup so that the web calendar, photos, and electronic logbook can be easily accessed on a local computer using a web browser. The provided data files are in either BINEX or SBF format (for the raw GNSS data), netCDF, CSV, ASCII, or MATLAB format. To obtain a better understanding about the archive, please start by reading the following PDF which is included within the data archive:README_ESS_DIVE_USNR1_2025_readme_first.pdf.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Lithium and Lithium Isotopes in Earth’s Surface Cycles

Lithium and its isotopes can provide information on continental silicate weathering, which is the primary natural drawdown process of atmospheric CO 2 and a major control on climate. Lithium isotopes themselves can aid our understanding of weathering, via globally important processes such as clay formation and cation retention. Both these processes occur as part of weathering in modern surface environments, such as rivers, soil pore waters, and groundwaters, but Li isotopes can also be used to track weathering changes across major climate-change events. Lithium isotope evidence from several past climatic warming and cooling episodes shows that weathering processes respond rapidly to changes in temperature, meaning that weathering is capable of bringing climate back under control within a few tens of thousands of years.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Lidar - ESRL WindCube 200s, Wasco Airport - Reviewed Data

The available "Readme" file introduces the basics of the Doppler lidar data and offers a detailed description of the variables present in the data files. For those with any further questions about the data and its interpretation, contact either Alan Brewer ( ) or Sunil Baidar ( ). It is highly recommended to discuss any planned use of the data with National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration-Chemical Sciences Division (NOAA-CSD) scientists. For more information, refer to the Readme file: "noaa-esrl-wascolidar-readme-1.pdf."

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Lidar - ESRL WindCube 200s, Arlington Airport - Reviewed Data

The available "readme" file introduces the basics of the Doppler lidar data and offers a detailed description of the variables present in the data files. For those with any further questions about the data and its interpretation, contact either Alan Brewer ( ) or Sunil Baidar ( ). It is highly recommended to discuss any planned use of the data with National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration-Chemical Sciences Division (NOAA-CSD) scientists. For more information, refer to the Readme file: "noaa-esrl-arlingtonlidar-readme-1.pdf."

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Lidar - ESRL WindCube 200s, Wasco Airport - Processed Data

The available "Readme" file introduces the basics of the Doppler lidar data and offers a detailed description of the variables present in the data files. For those with any further questions about the data and its interpretation, contact either Alan Brewer ( ) or Sunil Baidar ( ). It is highly recommended to discuss any planned use of the data with National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration-Chemical Sciences Division (NOAA-CSD) scientists. For more information, refer to the Readme file: "noaa-esrl-wascolidar-readme.docx."

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Aircraft in-situ measurements from SOCRATES constrain the anthropogenic perturbations of cloud droplet number

Aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) in warm clouds alter reflected shortwave radiation by influencing cloud microphysical and macrophysical properties. The variable of state controlling ACI is the cloud droplet number concentration (N d ). Here, we examine the perturbations in N d due to anthropogenic aerosols (ΔN d, PD-PI ) using a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) hosted in the sixth Community Atmosphere Model (CAM6). Surrogate models are created for the CAM6 PPE outputs and are used to generate 1 million model variants of CAM6 by sampling 45 sources of parameter uncertainty. The range of uncertain physical parameters related to ACI are constrained with observations of aerosol and cloud properties from SOCRATES. The likely range of uncertain parameters and the associated range of ΔN d, PD-PI are more strongly constrained with observations of N d relative to observations of cloud condensation nuclei. We conduct sensitivity tests of how constraints on ΔN d, PD-PI are affected by systematic uncertainties in observations and our limitations in our surrogate models created for CAM6 PPE outputs. Based on this, we provide guidance on the impact of reducing systematic uncertainty in airborne microphysical observations and in surrogate models.

Song, Ci [Univ. of Wyoming, Laramie, WY (United St↗
DOE OSTI2026

Occurrence of seeding multi-layer clouds in the Arctic from ground-based observations

Studies of Arctic clouds often focus on low-level single-layer clouds (SLCs). Here, we use combined observations of soundings and cloud radar during the MOSAiC, ACSE, and AO2018 research cruises as well as from long-term observations at Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard and Utqiagvik, Alaska to investigate the occurrence of SLCs and multi-layer clouds (MLCs) in the Arctic and to assess the rate of ice-crystal seeding in cold MLCs. MOSAiC observations show cloudy conditions in between 70 % and 90 % of sounding-radar cases. SLCs show occurrence rates of 30 % to 40 % with the highest value of 45 % during October. Cold MLCs are most abundant from November to June (40 % to 55 % of cases). Seeding occurs in about half to two thirds of the identified cold MLCs during MOSAiC for which the sub-saturated layer extends between 100 and 1000 m. The seeding rate increases by as much as 20 percentage points as the assumed size of the falling ice crystals is increased from 100 to 400 µm. The observations reveal a stable rate of cloud-free conditions of around 20 % over the covered latitude range. Cloud occurrence during MOSAiC and at Ny-Ålesund in July, when the geographical distance between observations was minimal, shows reasonable agreement. Comparisons of MOSAiC and other research cruises to the central Arctic also indicate consistent occurrence rates of different cloud types despite the likely effect of year-to-year variability. The comparison of data from ship campaigns and land sites suggests that the latter are not necessarily a good indicator of cloud occurrence in the high Arctic.

Achtert, Peggy [Leipzig Univ. (Germany); Meteorolo↗