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DOE OSTI2020

Wattile: Probabilistic Deep Learning-based Forecasting of Building Energy Consumption [SWR-20-94]

Accurate energy forecasting is becoming critical due to many reasons: i ) optimal distributed energy resources operations and dispatch, ii) fault detection and diagnostics, and iii) meeting operational energy efficiency targets. Wattile uses deep learning (DL) for the building's short-term load forecasting application. Two specific types of neural networks called, Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) and Sequence-to-Sequence (S2S) models are used to make predictions. Forecasting models are trained using online historical weather and occupancy indicator data streams from the Intelligent Campus Program's data acquisition systems at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) for main meters and sub-meters of multiple building types. These models use probabilistic methods to provide quantile-based forecasts in addition to nominal conditional median predictions of electricity consumption.

Frank, Stephen↗

DOE OSTI2021

Updated systematics of intermediate-energy single-nucleon removal cross sections

The body of experimental measurements of intermediate-energy reactions that remove a single nucleon from a secondary beam of neutron- or proton-rich nuclei continues to grow. These data have been analyzed consistently using an approximate, eikonal-model treatment of the reaction dynamics combined with appropriate shell-model descriptions of the projectile initial state, the bound final states spectrum of the reaction residue, and single-particle removal strengths computed from their wave-function overlaps. Here, the systematics of the ratio R s of the measured inclusive cross section to all bound final states and the calculated cross section to bound shell-model states—in different regions of the nuclear chart and involving both very weakly bound and strongly bound valence nucleons—is important in relating the empirically deduced orbital occupancies to those from the best available shell-model predictions. Importantly, several new higher-energy measurements, for which the sudden-approximation aspect of the dynamical description is placed on an even stronger footing, now supplement the previously analyzed measurements. These additional data sets are discussed. Their R s values are shown to conform to and reinforce the earlier-observed systematics, with no indication that the approximately linear reduction in R s with increasing nucleon separation energy is a consequence of a breakdown of the sudden approximation.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Enhancing Building Resilience: Maintaining Energy Efficiency and Thermal Comfort During Power Outages in Cold Climates

The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as heatwaves and cold snaps, present significant challenges to building energy performance and occupant comfort. Highly correlated with climate events are widespread long duration power interruptions that may affect thousands of buildings and millions of customers. This study evaluates the impact of building energy performance and occupant thermal comfort in medium-sized office buildings in a cold climate region. Using energy models representing pre-1980 and 2019 vintages, simulations were conducted to assess energy performance under typical weather conditions and occupant thermal comfort during power interrupted extreme cold snap and heatwave climate events under both current 2020s and future 2050s weather conditions. The results show a projected 33% increase in cooling energy demand and a 19% reduction in heating energy by 2050. Findings reveal that older buildings are more susceptible to cold discomfort during cold snaps, while modern airtight buildings are more vulnerable to overheating during heatwaves. Various passive energy efficiency measures, such as improved infiltration control, thermal windows, solar-controlled windows, and cool envelopes, were evaluated for their ability to mitigate thermal discomforts. Solar controlled windows and weatherstripping contribute to reducing cold thermal discomfort by 21% during a power-interrupted cold snap. Solar-controlled windows were found to reduce hot thermal discomfort by 34% during a future power-interrupted heatwave. The study highlights the importance of targeted retrofitting strategies to enhance thermal resilience, especially during power outages, to ensure occupant safety and comfort during extreme climate events.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2026

Emulating galaxy and peculiar velocity clustering on non-linear scales

We explore the potential of cross-correlating galaxies and peculiar velocities on non-linear scales to enhance cosmological constraints. Leveraging the ABACUSSUMMIT simulation suite and the halo occupation distribution (HOD) formalism, we trained emulator models to describe the non-linear clustering of galaxies and velocities in redshift space. Our analysis demonstrates that combining galaxy and peculiar velocity clustering provides tighter constraints on both HOD and cosmological parameters, particularly on σ8 and w0. We further applied our models to realistic mock catalogues, reproducing the expected density and peculiar velocity errors of type-Ia supernovae, Tully-Fisher and fundamental plane measurements for the combined ZTF and DESI measurements. While systematic biases arise in the HOD parameters, the cosmological constraints remain unbiased, yielding a 3.8% precision measurement on fσ 8 compared to 4.7% when using galaxy clustering alone. We demonstrate that while combining tracers with realistic velocity measurements still yields an improvement, the gains are diminished, highlighting the need for further efforts to reduce velocity measurement uncertainties and correct observational systematics on small scales.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Deep Reinforcement Learning for Residential HVAC Control with Consideration of Human Occupancy

The Artificial Intelligence (AI) development described herein uses model-free Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) to minimize energy cost during residential heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) operation. Building cooling loads and HVAC operation are difficult to accurately model due to complexity, lack of measurements and data, and model specific performance, so online machine learning is used to allow for real-time readjustment in performance. Energy costs for the multi-zone cooling unit shown in this work are minimized by scheduling on/off commands around dynamic prices. By taking advantage of precooling events that take place when the price is low, the agent is able to reduce operational cost without violating user comfort. The DRL controller was tested in simulation where the learner achieved a 43.89% cost reduction when compared to traditional, fixed-setpoint operation. The system is now ready for the next phase of testing in a live, real-time home environment.

Mckee, Evan↗

DOE OSTI2025

Akiachak Energy Efficiency Retrofit Project

The goal of the project is to reduce the overall energy use of the Akiachak Native Community (ANC) by implementing energy efficiency measures in five high-use Tribal buildings. This project will have the following outcomes: Projected annual energy savings of $17,369; projected annual reduction in fuel oil #1 of 1,200 gallons and electricity of 17,751 kWh; annual reduction in carbon dioxide emissions of approximately 60,340 pounds/year. ANC will install energy efficiency measures in the Laundry, Tribal Indian Reorganization Act (IRA) Office, Clinic, Daycare, and Police Station. ANC obtained energy audits on these buildings in 2018, and this project will implement high-payback recommendations such as replacing lighting with LEDs, installing setback thermostats and occupancy sensors, replacing furnaces with more efficient models, replacing the circulation pumps with variable speed ones, air tightening, and adding insulation. Buildings will see energy cost reductions from 15% to 40%. These retrofits will help build ANC’s long-term vision for sustainable energy usage and address the first goal of the Tribal IRA Council’s Energy Efficiency and Conservation Strategy, to “create and maintain functionally appropriate, sustainable, accessible, high quality tribal infrastructure and facilities.” ANC intends to replicate this project by using the resulting energy savings to address audit recommendations in other buildings as well as to demonstrate the value of energy efficiency to community members. Other outcomes will include an increase in community resiliency, reduced dependence on outside shipments of fuel oil, training for maintenance staff, and no-touch control of building appliances to reduce transmission of diseases such as COVID-19.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2021

Incorporating Residential Smart Electric Vehicle Charging in Home Energy Management Systems: Preprint

Electric vehicles are expected to drastically increase residential electricity consumption and provide a significant source of flexible demand. Aggregating smart EV charge controllers with other smart home devices through a home energy management system can lead to more optimal outcomes that benefit homeowners, utilities, and grid operators. Control strategies must account for occupant convenience by considering the need for fully charged EVs at any time of day. In this paper, we develop an EV charging framework that accounts for occupant convenience using OCHRE, a residential energy model, and foresee, a home energy management system. We simulate a community with high EV penetration and show that integrated, smart EV charging reduces peak demand and smooths night-time energy consumption. Simulation results show that the proposed control strategy nearly eliminates peak period EV charging and reduces the daily peak demand from EVs by 23%.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Leveraging Military Veteran Talent Through SkillBridge Training: Recommendations for the Solar Industry

Solar Energy International (SEI), in partnership with IREC, has published a white paper, Leveraging Military Veteran Talent Through SkillBridge Training: Recommendations for the Solar Industry. This resource presents SkillBridge as a key strategy for solar employers to attract, develop, and retain qualified veteran talent, and provides model training frameworks aligned with four key occupations, including solar installation, operations and maintenance, technical sales, and solar design.

Howes, Megan↗

DOE OSTI2022

Cosmological inference from an emulator based halo model. II. Joint analysis of galaxy-galaxy weak lensing and galaxy clustering from HSC-Y1 and SDSS

Here, we present high-fidelity cosmology results from a blinded joint analysis of galaxy-galaxy weak lensing (ΔΣ) and projected galaxy clustering (w p ) measured from the Hyper Suprime-Cam Year-1 (HSC-Y1) data and spectroscopic Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) galaxy catalogs in the redshift range 0.15 < z < 0.7. We define luminosity-limited samples of SDSS galaxies to serve as the tracers of w p in three spectroscopic redshift bins, and as the lens samples for ΔΣ. For the ΔΣ measurements, we select a single sample of 4×10 6 source galaxies over 140 deg 2 from HSC-Y1 with photometric redshifts (photo z) greater than 0.75, enabling a better handle of photo- z errors by comparing the ΔΣ amplitudes for the three lens redshift bins. The deep, high-quality HSC-Y1 data enable significant detections of the ΔΣ signals, with integrated signal-to-noise ratio S/N ~ 15 in the range 3 ≤ R/[h –1 Mpc] ≤ 30 for the three lens samples, despite the small area coverage. For cosmological parameter inference, we use an input galaxy-halo connection model built on the dark emulator package (which uses an ensemble set of high-resolution N-body simulations and enables fast, accurate computation of the clustering observables) with a halo occupation distribution that includes nuisance parameters to marginalize over modeling uncertainties. We model the ΔΣ and wp measurements on scales from R≃3 and 2h –1 Mpc , respectively, up to 30 h –1 Mpc (therefore excluding the baryon acoustic oscillations information) assuming a flat Λ CDM cosmology, marginalizing over about 20 nuisance parameters and demonstrating the robustness of our results to them. With various tests using mock catalogs described in Miyatake et al. [preceding paper, Phys. Rev. D 106, 083519 (2022)], we show that any bias in the clustering amplitude S 8 ≡ σ 8 (Ω m /0.3) 0.5 due to uncertainties in the galaxy-halo connection is less than ~ 50 % of the statistical uncertainty of S 8 , unless the assembly biaseffect is unexpectedly large. Our best-fit models have S 8 = 0.795$_{-0.042}^{+0.049}$ (mode and 68% credible interval) for the flat Λ CDM model; we find tighter constraints on the quantity S 8 (α = 0.17)≡σ 8 (Ω m /0.3) 0.17 = 0.745$_{-0.031}^{+0.039}$.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Macroecological distributions of gene variants highlight the functional organization of soil microbial systems

Abstract The recent application of macroecological tools and concepts has made it possible to identify consistent patterns in the distribution of microbial biodiversity, which greatly improved our understanding of the microbial world at large scales. However, the distribution of microbial functions remains largely uncharted from the macroecological point of view. Here, we used macroecological models to examine how the genes encoding the functional capabilities of microorganisms are distributed within and across soil systems. Models built using functional gene array data from 818 soil microbial communities showed that the occupancy-frequency distributions of genes were bimodal in every studied site, and that their rank-abundance distributions were best described by a lognormal model. In addition, the relationships between gene occupancy and abundance were positive in all sites. This allowed us to identify genes with high abundance and ubiquitous distribution (core) and genes with low abundance and limited spatial distribution (satellites), and to show that they encode different sets of microbial traits. Common genes encode microbial traits related to the main biogeochemical cycles (C, N, P and S) while rare genes encode traits related to adaptation to environmental stresses, such as nutrient limitation, resistance to heavy metals and degradation of xenobiotics. Overall, this study characterized for the first time the distribution of microbial functional genes within soil systems, and highlight the interest of macroecological models for understanding the functional organization of microbial systems across spatial scales.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Reduction of a Heme Cofactor Initiates N -Nitroglycine Degradation by NnlA

Linear nitramines are potentially carcinogenic environmental contaminants. The NnlA enzyme from Variovorax sp. strain JS1663 degrades the nitramine N-nitroglycine (NNG)—a natural product produced by some bacteria—to glyoxylate and nitrite (NO 2 –). Ammonium (NH 4 +) was predicted as the third product of this reaction. A source of nonheme Fe II was shown to be required for initiation of NnlA activity. However, the role of this Fe II for NnlA activity was unclear. This work reveals that NnlA contains a b-type heme cofactor. Reduction of this heme—either by a nonheme iron source or dithionite—is required to initiate NnlA activity. Therefore, Fe II is not an essential substrate for holoenzyme activity. Our data show that reduced NnlA (Fe II -NnlA) catalyzes at least 100 turnovers and does not require O 2 . Finally, NH 4 + was verified as the third product, accounting for the complete nitrogen mass balance. Size exclusion chromatography showed that NnlA is a dimer in solution. Additionally, Fe II -NnlA is oxidized by O 2 and NO 2 – and stably binds carbon monoxide (CO) and nitric oxide (NO). These are characteristics shared with heme-binding PAS domains. Furthermore, a structural homology model of NnlA was generated using the PAS domain from Pseudomonas aeruginosa Aer2 as a template. The structural homology model suggested His 73 is the axial ligand of the NnlA heme. Site-directed mutagenesis of His 73 to alanine decreased the heme occupancy of NnlA and eliminated NNG activity, validating the homology model. We conclude that NnlA forms a homodimeric heme-binding PAS domain protein that requires reduction for initiation of the activity.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Constraining Galaxy-Halo connection using machine learning

We investigate the potential of machine learning (ML) methods to model small-scale galaxy clustering for constraining Halo Occupation Distribution (HOD) parameters. Our analysis reveals that while many ML algorithms report good statistical fits, they often yield likelihood contours that are significantly biased in both mean values and variances relative to the true model parameters. This highlights the importance of careful data processing and algorithm selection in ML applications for galaxy clustering, as even seemingly robust methods can lead to biased results if not applied correctly. ML tools offer a promising approach to exploring the HOD parameter space with significantly reduced computational costs compared to traditional brute-force methods if their robustness is established. Using our ANN-based pipeline, we successfully recreate some standard results from recent literature. Properly restricting the HOD parameter space, transforming the training data, and carefully selecting ML algorithms are essential for achieving unbiased and robust predictions. Among the methods tested, artificial neural networks (ANNs) outperform random forests (RF) and ridge regression in predicting clustering statistics, when the HOD prior space is appropriately restricted. We demonstrate these findings using the projected two-point correlation function (w p (r p )), angular multipoles of the correlation function (ξ ℓ (r)), and the void probability function (VPF) of Luminous Red Galaxies from Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument mocks. Our results show that while combining w p (r p ) and VPF improves parameter constraints, adding the multipoles ξ 0 , ξ 2 , and ξ 4 to w p (r p ) does not significantly improve the constraints.

cosmology↗

DOE OSTI2021

OCHRE: The Object-oriented, Controllable, High-resolution Residential Energy Model for Dynamic Integration Studies

Electrification and the growth of distributed energy resources (DERs), including flexible loads, are changing the energy landscape of electric distribution systems and creating new challenges and opportunities for electric utilities. Changes in demand profiles require improvements in distribution system load models, which have not historically accounted for device controllability or impacts on customer comfort. Although building modeling research has focused on these features, there is a need to incorporate them into distribution load models that include DERs and can be used to study grid-interactive buildings. In this paper, we present the Object-oriented, Controllable, High-resolution Residential Energy (OCHRE) model. OCHRE is a controllable thermal-electric residential energy model that captures building thermal dynamics, integrates grid-dependent electrical behavior, contains models for common DERs and end-use loads, and simulates at a time resolution down to 1 minute. It includes models for space heaters, air conditioners, water heaters, electric vehicles, photovoltaics, and batteries that are externally controllable and integrated in a co-simulation framework. Using a proposed zero energy ready community in Colorado, we co-simulate a distribution grid and 498 all-electric homes with a diverse set of efficiency levels and equipment properties. We show that controllable devices can reduce peak demand within a neighborhood by up to 73% during a critical peak period without sacrificing occupant comfort. We also demonstrate the importance of modeling load diversity at a high time resolution when quantifying power and voltage fluctuations across a distribution system.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Structure of the electrical double layer at the ice–water interface

The surface of ice in contact with water contains sites that undergo deprotonation and protonation and can act as adsorption sites for aqueous ions. Therefore, an electrical double layer should form at this interface and existing models for describing the electrical double layer at metal oxide–water interfaces should be able to be modified to describe the surface charge, surface potential, and ionic occupancy at the ice–water interface. I used a surface complexation model along with literature measurements of the zeta potential of ice in brines of various strength and pH to constrain equilibrium constants. I then made predictions of ion site occupancy, surface charge density, and partitioning of counterions between the Stern and diffuse layers. The equilibrium constant for cation adsorption is more than 5 orders of magnitude larger than the other constants, indicating that this reaction dominates even at low salinity. Deprotonated OH sites are predicted to be slightly more abundant than dangling O sites, consistent with previous work. Surface charge densities are on the order of ±0.001 C/m2 and are always negative at the moderate pH values of interest to atmospheric and geophysical applications (6–9). In this pH range, over 99% of the counterions are contained in the Stern layer. This suggests that diffuse layer polarization will not occur because the ionic concentrations in the diffuse layer are nearly identical to those in the bulk electrolyte and that electrical conduction and polarization in the Stern layer will be negligible due to reduced ion mobility.

Daigle, Hugh (ORCID:0000000260628321)↗

DOE OSTI2021

A biokinetic model for systemic sodium

This paper describes an updated biokinetic model for systemic sodium (Na), developed for use in a series of reports by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) on occupational intake of radionuclides. In contrast to the ICRP's previous model for intake of radio-sodium by workers, the updated model depicts realistic directions of movement of Na in the body including recycling of activity between blood and tissues. The updated model structure facilitates extension of the baseline transfer coefficients for adults to different age groups and to special exposure scenarios such as transfer of radio-sodium from the mother to the foetus or the nursing infant. Dose coefficients for 22Na and 24Na based on the updated model generally do not differ greatly from those based on the ICRP's previous Na model when both models are connected to the ICRP's latest dosimetry system. The main exception is that the updated model yields roughly twofold higher dose coefficients for endosteal bone surface than does the previous model due to the dosimetrically cautious assumption in the updated model that exchangeable Na in bone resides on bone surface.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Infrared-Fused Vision-Based Thermoregulation Performance Estimation for Personal Thermal Comfort-Driven HVAC System Controls

Thermal comfort is one of the primary factors influencing occupant health, well-being, and productivity in buildings. Existing thermal comfort systems require occupants to frequently communicate their comfort vote via a survey which is impractical as a long-term solution. Here, we present a novel thermal infrared-fused computer vision sensing method to capture thermoregulation performance in a non-intrusive and non-invasive manner. In this method, we align thermal and visible images, detect facial segments (i.e., nose, eyes, face boundary), and accordingly read the temperatures from the appropriate coordinates in the thermal image. We focus on the human face since it is often clearly visible to cameras and is not merged into a hot background (unlike hands). We use a regularized Gaussian Mixture model to track the thermoregulation changes over time and apply a heuristic algorithm to extract hot and cold indices. We present a personalized and a generalized comfort modeling method, selected based on the availability of the occupant historical indices measurements in a neutral environment, and use the time-series of the hot and cold indices to define corrections to HVAC system operations in the form of setpoint constraints. To evaluate the efficacy of our proposed approach in responding to thermal stimuli, we designed a series of controlled experiments to simulate exposure to cold and hot environments. While applying personalized modeling showed an acceptable average accuracy of 91.3%, the generalized model’s average accuracy was only 65.2%. This shows the importance of having access to physiological records in modeling and assessing comfort. We also found that individual differences should be considered in selecting the cooling and heating rates when some knowledge of the occupant’s overall thermal preference is available.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

Estimating building occupancy: a machine learning system for day, night, and episodic events

Building occupancy research increasingly emphasizes understanding the social and physical dynamics of how people occupy space. Opportunities in the open source domain including social media, Volunteered Geographic Information, crowdsourcing, and sensor data have proliferated, resulting in the exploration of building occupancy dynamics at varying spatiotemporal scales. At Oak Ridge National Laboratory, research into building occupancies through the development of a global learning framework that accommodates exploitation of open source authoritative sources, including governmental census and surveys, journal articles, real estate databases, and more, to report national and subnational building occupancies across the world continues through the Population Density Tables (PDT) project. This probabilistic learning system accommodates expert knowledge, experience, and open-source data to capture local, socioeconomic, and cultural information about human activity. It does so through a systematic process of data harmonization techniques in the development of observation models for over 50 building types to dynamically update baseline estimates and report probabilistic diurnal and episodic building occupancy estimates. This discussion will explore how PDT is implemented at scale and expanded based on the development of observation model classes and will explain how to interpret and spatially apply the reported probability occupancy estimates and uncertainty.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

The DESI One-Percent survey: exploring the Halo Occupation Distribution of Emission Line Galaxies with AbacusSummit simulations

The One-Percent survey of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument collected ~ 270k emission line galaxies (ELGs) at 0.8 < z < 1.6. The high completeness of the sample allowed the clustering to be measured down to scales never probed before, 0.04 Mpc/h in rp for the projected 2-point correlation function (2PCF) and 0.17 Mpc/h in galaxy pair separation s for the 2PCF monopole and quadrupole. The most striking feature of the measurements is a strong signal at the smallest scales, below 0.2 Mpc/h in rp and 1 Mpc/h in s. We analyse these data in the halo occupation distribution framework. We consider different distributions for central galaxies, a standard power law for satellites with no condition on the presence of a central galaxy and explore several extensions of these models. For all considered models, the mean halo mass of the sample is found to be log10 $\langle$Mh$\rangle$ ~ 11.9. We obtain a satellite mean occupation function which agrees with physically motivated ELG models only if we introduce central-satellite conformity, meaning that the satellite occupation is conditioned by the presence of central galaxies of the same type. To achieve in addition a good modelling of the clustering between 0.1 and 1 Mpc/h in rp, we allow for ELG positioning outside of the halo virial radius and find 0.5% of ELGs residing in the outskirts of halos. Furthermore, the satellite velocity dispersion inside halos is found to be ~ 30% larger than that of the halo dark matter particles. These are the main findings of our work. Here we investigate assembly bias as a function of halo concentration, local density or local density anisotropies and observe no significant change in our results. We split the data sample in two redshift bins and report no significant evolution with redshift. Lastly, changing the cosmology in the modelling impacts only slightly our results.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗