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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

AFIP6-MkII and RERTR-12 Porosity Data Collection and Analysis for Modeling and Simulation

Gathering data for the improvement of nuclear fuel modeling and simulation efforts is the primary driver for this work. Mechanistic models allow for a better understanding of the material on a micro- and macrostructural level while saving time and money over traditional experiment efforts. Historically, summarized data and correlations are the inputs for empirical material models and model validation. When improving these models for nuclear fuels with experimental results, there is a lack of reliable data readily available. Experiments - RERTR-12 and AFIP6-MkII - were conducted to understand the irradiation behavior of metallic U-10Mo monolithic fuels for use in extreme reactor environments such as research reactors like the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) or the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR). Microstructural characteristics of fission gas pores (FGP) in each experiment are collected using an automated image analysis technique developed at the University of Florida and presented here. A series of statistical tests are performed to explore the reliability of the results, as well as understand where the data is lacking and what future data collection is necessary to provide sufficient information to assist modeling efforts. The focus is on the porosity, pore size, and eccentricity of FGPs formed during irradiation in three AFIP6-MkII samples and one RERTR-12 sample. From the analysis, it is clear there are substantial impacts of fission density on the pore structure, but there also exist also underlying connections between each sample and the behavior observed in the pores. Further analyses of the pre- and post-irradiation microstructure are needed to improve the understanding of these connections. An early method for microstructural data analysis is presented within and is currently being expanded to include other microstructure data.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Application of a Null-Space Monte Carlo Flow Model Set to the Composite Analysis Base Case Fate and Transport Modeling

The Plateau to River Groundwater Model (P2R Model) is a groundwater flow and contaminant fate and transport (F&T) simulation model used to support remedial activities conducted by CH2M HILL Plateau Remediation Company at the Hanford Site in Washington State. Figure 1-1 illustrates the P2R Model extents, discretization, and boundary conditions. The P2R Model is utilized in the Composite Analysis (CA) for the Hanford Site as the computational engine for computing F&T predictions as described in CP-60406, Hanford Site Composite Analysis Technical Approach Description: Groundwater. The model simulates contaminants of concern within the saturated zone of the uppermost aquifer beneath the Central Plateau and downgradient to the Columbia River. CP-57037, Model Package Report for the Plateau to River Model Version 8.3, documents the current version of the P2R Model including a description of the conceptual site model, model development and calibration, and limitations to the model application. The overall objective of the saturated zone modeling effort is to provide a basis for making informed remedial action decisions based on descriptions of current and expected future contaminant concentrations in groundwater at decision points within and downgradient of the Central Plateau of the Hanford Site. Specifically, the purpose of this environmental calculation is to describe the application of the hydraulic property fields and recharge parameters documented in ECF-HANFORD-20-0027, Null Space Monte Carlo Evaluation of the Plateau to River Model, to the CA flow and fate and transport simulation results to quantify the uncertainty in the simulated results due to input parameter selection. Use of numerical groundwater models is always accompanied with uncertainty in the results produced by a model because models are approximations of reality. Thus, by definition, models lack the detail to fully represent observed behavior. Use of numerical techniques, such as a NSMC analysis, can help in identifying and quantifying the potential uncertainties associated with a numerical model such as the P2R Model. The result of NSCM analysis is a set of F&T simulations that provide an estimate of the range of possible outcomes that are used to quantify the uncertainty in simulated concentrations produced using the base case simulations. The simulated concentrations from all simulations will support calculation of the uncertainty of the total dose calculated in a separate calculation.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multi-state Catalysts Modulated by Mechanical Force (Final Report)

The development of more efficient catalytic processes and new approaches to control catalytic activity and selectivity are central to the realization of more selective, atom economic, and energy efficient routes to value added chemicals and polymers. The reactivity and selectivity of a transition metal catalyst is intimately related to the ligand-sphere geometry and, in many cases, the ideal ligand geometry for one step of a catalytic cycle is poorly matched to the ideal ligand geometry for another, resulting in sub-optimal efficiency. Macroscopic mechanical forces are both large, potentially much larger than interatomic forces, and are directional and localized to an extent that differentiates them from other forms of energy input such as heat or light. As such, mechanical force represents a heretofore untapped approach to modulate catalyst geometry, with the potential to reversibly modulate catalyst geometry on the timescale of catalytic turnover or monomer enchainment. This project has addressed the fundamental challenges in material-to-molecule strain coupling associated with the development of a new class of mechanically responsive catalysts (mechanocatalysts) in which active organotransition metal catalysts are strategically embedded in a flexible polymer network such that application of external mechanical force (stretching or deformation) leads to modulation of catalyst geometry, and hence reactivity and selectivity. Our efforts during the tenure of this grant were directed toward the elucidation of force-reactivity relationships of elementary transformations that occur within the first coordination sphere of a transition metal complex employing stiff stilbene photoswitches tethered to a flexible bidentate phosphine ligand derived from MeOBiphep as molecular force probes which provide a range of compressive and extension forces to the coupled transition metal complex depending on the geometry of the stiff stilbene and length of the tethering chains. During the tenure of this grant, we have quantified the rate of C(sp 2 )-C(sp 2 ) reductive elimination from platinum(II) diaryl complexes containing bis(phosphine) force probe ligands as a function of mechanical force; compressive forces decreased the rate of reductive elimination whereas extension forces increased the rate relative to the strain-free MeOBiphep complex with a 3.4-fold change in rate over a ~290 pN range of restoring forces. In a similar manner, we have quantified the rate of oxidative addition of bromobenzene to low-ligated palladium(0) complexes containing force probe ligands as a function of mechanical force; compressive forces increase the rate of oxidative addition, whereas tensile forces decrease the rate with a ~6 fold change in rate across ~340 pN of force applied to the complexes. In both cases, experimental and computational analyses argue strongly against any significant force-induced perturbation of ground state geometry within the first coordination sphere of the reactant complexes. Rather, the force/rate behavior observed for these transformations across these ranges of forces is attributed to the coupling of force to the nuclear motion comprising the reaction coordinates for reductive elimination and oxidative addition. These results together inform the development of catalysts whose activity can be tuned by an external force that is adjusted within a catalytic cycle and suggest opportunities to experimentally map geometry changes associated with reactions in transition metal complexes and potential strategies for force-modulated catalysis.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Molecular Aspects of Transport in Thin Films of Controlled Architecture (Final Technical Report)

The scientific and technological objectives of this project are motivated by problems in energy technologies that utilize differential transport in nanoscale confined volumes to achieve molecular separations. The core scientific phenomena that control observable behavior - wetting/dewetting, hydrophobicity, stochastic fluctuations in fluid flow, electrokinetics, etc. - are fundamentally different on the nanoscale, because the underlying forces that direct molecular motion are altered upon scaling to nanometer dimensions. We proposed to address this overarching problem by pursuing two objectives. Objective 1 targeted the development of single molecule-based electrokinetic, electrochemical and spectroelectrochemical probes of transport in one-dimensional (1D) nanostructures. Objective 2 focused on the interaction between wetting phenomena and nanoconfined flows under active (electrical and/or electrochemical) control. The studies were intended to develop the design rules, structural motifs, and operating principles needed to achieve singular control over molecular transport in nano-confined volumes, thereby impacting a broad spectrum of energy-relevant separations processes.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

MAGNET Scaling and Methodology

The purpose of this study was to analyze the heat transfer of the Microreactor Agile Non-nuclear Experimental Testbed (MAGNET) within the Dynamic Energy Transport and Integration Laboratory (DETAIL) and develop scaling equations and models to couple with other systems. Hierarchical Two-Tiered Scaling (H2TS) methodologies were applied to DETAIL’s MAGNET facility to scale and project data sets while conserving the observed behavior based on first principles. The MAGNET system was successfully scaled using H2TS and multiple system parameters were determined or calculated from experimental data including steady state and transient data.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Molecular Modeling to Increase Kraft Pulp Yield

Kraft pulping is an important component of the pulp and paper industry and is the predominant technology for removing lignin from wood carbohydrates. However, kraft pulping is energy-intensive, expensive, and is limited by the degradation of cellulose and hemicellulose. Pretreatment increases yield by stabilizing cellulose against degradation. However, protection of galactoglucomannan (GGM), the primary hemicellulose component of softwood, is minimal when conventional pretreatments are used. Here we investigate the effectiveness of new pretreatment methods on southern pine wood chips under a range of experimental conditions. If successful, improved pretreatment methods will increase carbohydrate yield, reduce waste, reduce energy use, lower the cost of bleaching, and decrease the cost of air emission controls. The purpose of this CRADA was to combine industrial expertise in wood pulping with national laboratory expertise in high-performance computing, leading to improved understanding of molecular-scale processes that limit carbohydrate yield during pretreatment and pulping. A combined computational and experimental approach was used to investigate pretreatment effectiveness under relevant pulping conditions and then use molecular simulation techniques to provide complementary insight into structural and chemical factors that govern the observed behavior. In this report we summarize the accomplishments of the project.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Engineering-scale Modeling of High-Temperature Creep and Creep Crack Growth in Alloy 316H

This document demonstrates completion of the goals described in the technical narrative of the Department of Energy’s Industry Funding Opportunity Announcement (iFOA) project entitled “Modeling and Simulation Development Pathways to Accelerating KP-FHR Licensing,” which relates to the development and demonstration of capabilities for conducting engineering-scale simulations of Alloy 316H components under high-temperature conditions. This work encompassed two major aspects: integrating and testing constitutive models for the creep response of 316H at high temperatures, and developing tools for modeling creep crack growth (CCG) in 316H. Two classes of constitutive models were used in this effort: phenomenological models based on behavior observed at the engineering scale, and reduced-order models (ROMs) that represent the nonlinear response of mesoscale models that capture the sensitivity to material microstructure and processing. Likewise, the approaches employed for CCG modeling considered both simplified engineering approaches and detailed simulations of creep and damage ahead of the crack tip. These developments, which were performed by utilizing the Grizzly code as well as the open-source libraries it depends on, strengthen Grizzly’s ability to support licensing and safety analyses of high-temperature reactor components.

316H↗
DOE OSTI2025

Laser calibration system at ProtoDUNE-HD

The Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) is a full experiment consisting of multiple detectors separated by a near and far site. DUNE will study long-baseline neutrino oscillations, which will provide insight into CP-violation, neutrino mass ordering, and the matter/antimatter asymmetry. Additionally, DUNE will search for nucleon decay and observe neutrinos from supernovae. DUNE relies on liquid argon time projection chambers (LAr TPCs), an excellent technology for tracking particles and reconstructing their interactions with high precision. To achieve its goals, DUNE is supported by the ProtoDUNE experiments at CERN, which serve as large-scale prototypes to validate detector technologies and calibration systems. The precise calibration of the electric field within the detector is vital for accurate 3D reconstruction of particle tracks, particularly in maintaining the consistency of charge measurements along the drift path. This work presents the development and implementation of a laser calibration system designed for ProtoDUNE-II. This poster involved the physical installation and commissioning of the laser system. The commissioning process included extensive testing to ensure alignment and operational efficiency, such as rotating the laser to observe behavior of tracks. The groundwork established during these steps is crucial for future data analysis, aiming to measure the electron lifetime (in the active volume) and map the electric field inside the detector with high precision.

Campanelli, Wallison [LIP]↗
DOE OSTI2026

Bull Trout and Westslope Cutthroat Trout movement in a dam tailrace

Populations of Bull Trout Salvelinus confluentus and Westslope Cutthroat Trout Oncorhynchus clarkii lewisi in the Pend Oreille Basin have declined, partly due to fragmentation caused by hydropower dams. This study aimed to analyze the movements and behavior of these species downstream of Albeni Falls Dam over two years to inform fishway design. Radiotracking investigations were conducted to monitor 10 adult Bull Trout and 17 adult Westslope Cutthroat Trout from September 2008 to July 2010. Macro and micro detection zones were delineated to study fine- and large-scale movements in the tailrace. Macro zones included the spillway and powerhouse tailrace areas. Micro zones were nested within macro zones to identify regions close to the dam where fishway structures could be built. Both Bull Trout and Westslope Cutthroat Trout exhibited high mobility in the dam tailrace, transitioning between macro detection zones. Seasonal variations influenced their distribution patterns. During the spring freshet migration season, both species were primarily detected at the left powerhouse micro zone. In sedentary periods (fall/winter and summer), fish actively swam throughout the tailrace, displaying search behavior. These behavior observations suggest that potential fishway entrances located near dam concrete would be effective: the area near the left powerhouse was identified as the optimal construction location. This study highlights the feasibility of designing fish passage structures to mitigate population fragmentation and support species recovery.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Postirradiation Examination of WIRE-21 Experiment Irradiated in the High Flux Isotope Reactor

Westinghouse Electric Company is developing wireless sensors to monitor the centerline temperature and internal pressure of commercial light-water reactor fuel rods during irradiation. Oak Ridge National Laboratory and Westinghouse Electric Company developed the Wireless Instrumented RB Experiment 2021 (WIRE-21) to test wireless temperature and pressure sensor technologies in a removable beryllium position in the High Flux Isotope Reactor. The experiment was irradiated for a total of 75 days, at temperatures ranging from approximately 150°C to 400°C, resulting in a peak fast (energy > 0.1 MeV) neutron fluence of about 3 × 10 21 n/cm 2 . The temperature was intentionally cycled multiple times to compare the response of the wireless temperature sensor to collocated thermocouples. Similarly, the pressure sensor was actuated in multiple steps to compare the response of the wireless measurement to excore pressure transducers (Petrie et al., 2023). After irradiation, the experiment was disassembled in the Irradiated Fuels Examination Laboratory (IFEL) hot cell at Oak Ridge National Laboratory with the intent to recover sensor and dosimetry components, document the as-irradiated condition of the hardware, and investigate possible causes of the sensor behavior observed during irradiation. The postirradiation examination successfully recovered and preserved key WIRE-21 components. After the housing was removed using a milling machine, the internal experiment sections were examined. All eight fiber-optic sensors were recovered, cut, and stored. The silicon carbide thermometry, temperature sensor, pressure sensor, lower spacer, and selected pressure and temperature cable sections were also removed and stored. The metal bellows of the pressure sensor was found to be plastically deformed, indicating that it had been properly pressurized during irradiation and generally behaved as expected. X-ray diffraction analysis of a section of one of the irradiated inductor cores within the pressure sensor was performed and confirmed the presence of phase-pure alpha ferrite (i.e., no unexpected phase transformations). Inductance testing was performed on the irradiated pressure sensor cores using an unirradiated test coil, and DC resistance measurements of the transceiver coils were also performed. The measurements with irradiated inductor cores assembled inside unirradiated coils showed slightly reduced inductance compared to measurements made with unirradiated cores, but the difference was not sufficient to explain the more significant reductions in inductance that were observed in-pile. Therefore, it is suspected that degradation of the inductor coils (specifically the wire wrapping) is responsible for the reduced inductance observed in-pile.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Individual Wave Detection and Tracking within a Rotating Detonation Engine through Computer Vision Object Detection applied to High-Speed Images

Known for their simplistic design and continuous detonation, rotating detonation engines (RDEs) constitute a majority of current pressure gain combustion (PGC) research efforts. Experimental RDE operation times have been continuously extended through the use of rig cooling techniques. As the window of observable behavior is expanded, and as the technology matures toward eventual integration within gas turbines, monitoring techniques must evolve to better match industrial diagnostics. High-speed image analysis techniques prove useful to capture and evaluate the unsteady detonation behavior within the RDE. Traditional image analysis techniques, however, require extensive processing times which prohibit simultaneous monitoring. To better address this problem, a computer vision object detection methodology is proposed to quickly detect individual detonation waves within a single down-axis image. Detonation waves are detected in individual images by the implemented computer vision method You Only Look Once (YOLO) object detection network. In order to detect detonation waves, the network must first be trained using RDE images of interest, for which each required phase of network development is outlined. Detection of waves is improved through proper treatment of the collected image set, variation of Intersection over Union (IoU) and confidence thresholding, and through a parametric study of annotation dimensions. Each detected wave is described by its location and rotational direction, and locations are tracked to calculate wave velocity across each frame, leading to a timestep resolution of 20 µs. Wave velocities are also calculated through a series of frames, leading to a suitable average velocity estimation using as few as 10 frames. Uncertainty analysis accounting for variation in camera framerate, pixel width and annotation centroid locations estimates a total uncertainty of ±4.3% for velocity calculations, using the smallest annotation boxes. This method offers great reductions in processing times, as a step toward real-time monitoring of detonation waves within an RDE. Improving on previous studies, this technique is impartial to wave modes not included in the original training set and calculates wave velocities independent of high-speed pressure data. The ability to isolate waves within predicted bounding boxes will likely facilitate analysis of pixel intensity variation as an estimation of wave strength in future work.

Johnson, Kristyn↗
DOE OSTI2022

Accurate and Rapid Forecasts for Geologic Carbon Storage via Learning-Based Inversion-Free Prediction

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is one approach being studied by the U.S. Department of Energy to help mitigate global warming. The process involves capturing CO 2 emissions from industrial sources and permanently storing them in deep geologic formations (storage reservoirs). However, CCS projects generally target “green field sites,” where there is often little characterization data and therefore large uncertainty about the petrophysical properties and other geologic attributes of the storage reservoir. Consequently, ensemble-based approaches are often used to forecast multiple realizations prior to CO 2 injection to visualize a range of potential outcomes. In addition, monitoring data during injection operations are used to update the pre-injection forecasts and thereby improve agreement between forecasted and observed behavior. Thus, a system for generating accurate, timely forecasts of pressure buildup and CO 2 movement and distribution within the storage reservoir and for updating those forecasts via monitoring measurements becomes crucial. This study proposes a learning-based prediction method that can accurately and rapidly forecast spatial distribution of CO 2 concentration and pressure with uncertainty quantification without relying on traditional inverse modeling. The machine learning techniques include dimension reduction, multivariate data analysis, and Bayesian learning. The outcome is expected to provide CO 2 storage site operators with an effective tool for timely and informative decision making based on limited simulation and monitoring data.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Simulated Impact of Shortened Strings in Commercial and Utility-Scale Photovoltaic Arrays

The deliberate removal of photovoltaic modules from a string can occur for various reasons encompassing maintenance, measurements, theft, or failure, reducing that string length relative to others when replacement modules are not available and there are not any viable alternative makes and models that could be inserted. This phenomenon, delineated in our prior experimentally validated research, manifests two significant effects: (1) a shift in the ideal maximum power point and (2) the induction of potentially substantial reverse currents in the shortened strings at open-circuit voltage, VOC. However, the scalability and asymptotic limits of these observed behaviors concerning array size remained undetermined. In this study, we elucidate the operational dynamics of such arrays by manipulating two mismatch-contributing variables in simulated arrays of up to 900 strings: the number of removed modules per string (indicative of the level of mismatch, ranging up to 5) and the quantity of shortened strings (1 to 60). Simulation outcomes underscore that mismatch severity impacts array operation more than the proportion of shortened strings. This research delves into the practical ramifications of operating with shortened strings, including implications for low-irradiance operation and the manifestation of deleterious reverse currents (>35 A in specific cases), emphasizing the need for careful array configuration for optimal performance and safety in these implementations.

Energy & Fuels↗
DOE OSTI2023

Photoluminescence Induced in Mineral Oil by Ionizing Radiation

We have studied photoluminescence (PL) properties of vacuum pump mineral oil as a function of the type and intensity of ionizing radiation exposure. The mineral oil has a simple aliphatic structure, which possesses no chromophore in the traditional sense. Unexpected PL in the mineral oil has characteristic features such as variation of the emission peak wavelength depending on the excitation wavelength and intensity dramatically increasing with radiation dose. The observed behavior can be understood in the framework of a previously suggested model introducing aggregation-induced PL and the formation of conjugated clusters comprising nontraditional chromophores. Our findings can be used for the development of optical sensors for real-time monitoring of oil utilized in vacuum pumps in nuclear fusion reactors.

Bliznyuk, Valery N.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Understanding the High-Temperature Deformation Behaviors in Additively Manufactured Al6061+TiC Composites via In Situ Neutron Diffraction

Aluminum matrix composites (AMCs) are designed to enhance the performance of conventional aluminum alloys for engineering applications at both room and elevated temperatures. However, the dynamic phase-specific deformation behavior and load-sharing mechanisms of AMCs at elevated temperatures have not been extensively studied and remain unclear. Here, in situ neutron diffraction experiments are employed to reveal the phase-specific structure evolution of additively manufactured Al6061+TiC composites under compressive loading at 250 °C. It is found that the addition of a small amount of nano-size TiC significantly alters the deformation behavior and increases the strength at 250 °C in comparison to the as-printed Al6061. Unlike the two-stage behavior observed in Al6061, the Al6061+TiC composites exhibit three stages during compression triggered by changes in the interphase stress states. Further analysis of Bragg peak intensity and broadening reveals that the presence of TiC alters the dislocation activity during deformation at 250 °C by influencing dislocation slip planes and promoting dislocation accumulation. These findings provide direct experimental observations of the phase-specific dynamic process in AMCs under deformation at an elevated temperature. The revealed mechanisms provide insights for the future design and optimization of high-performance AMCs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Contributions to Dielectric Constant Enhancement in Thin Film Metal Insulator Metal Capacitors

Thin film metal-insulator-metal capacitors were fabricated with varying dielectric and electrode thicknesses and areas. Measurement of the dielectric properties of the capacitors consistently yielded higher than predicted capacitance values, which prompted the exploration of three factors that could enhance the capacitance. Modeling of the fringing capacitance and field enhancement due to the capacitor geometry, both yield capacitance gains, albeit insufficient to fully explain the observed behavior. The possible role of changes in polarizability of the dielectric film constituents, due to the amorphous nature of the films was also evaluated, but the results of the investigation of this contribution were inconclusive. Herein, the role of accumulation/depletion layers on capacitance enhancement was also analyzed. For capacitors fabricated with thinner dielectrics, the presence of these layers can effectively reduce the dielectric thickness, resulting in contributions to capacitance that are significant. The calculations completed suggest these contributions may be more important than fringing field contributions. Additional studies of these mechanisms are in progress.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hund's coupling assisted orbital-selective superconductivity in Ba1-xKxFe2As2

While the superconducting transition temperature of hole-doped Ba_{1-x}K_{x}Fe_{2}As_{2} decreases past optimal doping, superconductivity does not completely disappear even for the fully doped KFe_{2}As_{2} compound. In fact, superconductivity is robust through a Lifshitz transition where electron bands become hole-like around the zone corner at around x=0.7, thus challenging the conventional understanding of superconductivity in iron-based systems. High-resolution angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy is used to investigate the superconducting gap structure, as well as the normal state electronic structure, around optimal doping and across the Lifshitz transition. Our findings reveal a largely orbital-dependent superconducting gap structure, where the more strongly correlated d_{xy} band has a vanishing superconducting gap at higher doping, aligning with the Hund's metal behavior observed in the normal state. Notably, the superconducting gap on the d_{xy} band disappears before the Lifshitz transition, suggesting that the Fermi surface topology may play a secondary role. We discuss how these results point to orbital-selective superconducting pairing and how strong correlations via Hund's coupling may shape superconducting gap structures in iron-based and other multiorbital superconductors.

FOS: Physical sciences↗
DOE OSTI2022

The contribution of Humboldt Glacier, northern Greenland, to sea-level rise through 2100 constrained by recent observations of speedup and retreat

Abstract. Humboldt Glacier, northern Greenland, has retreated and accelerated through the 21st century, raising concerns that it could be a significant contributor to future sea-level rise. We use a data-constrained ensemble of three-dimensional higher-order ice sheet model simulations to estimate the likely range of sea-level rise from the continued retreat of Humboldt Glacier. We first solve for basal traction using observed ice thickness, bed topography, and ice surface velocity from the year 2007 in a PDE-constrained (partial differential equation) optimization. Next, we impose calving rates to match mean observed retreat rates from winter 2007–2008 to winter 2017–2018 in a transient calibration of the exponent in the power-law basal friction relationship. We find that power-law exponents in the range of 1/7–1/5 – rather than the commonly used 1/3–1 – are necessary to reproduce the observed speedup over this period. We then tune an iceberg calving parameterization based on the von Mises stress yield criterion in another transient-calibration step to approximate both observed ice velocities and terminus position in 2017–2018. Finally, we use the range of basal friction relationship exponents and calving parameter values to generate the ensemble of model simulations from 2007–2100 under three climate forcing scenarios from CMIP5 (two RCP8.5 forcings, Representative Concentration Pathway) and CMIP6 (one SSP5-8.5 forcing, Shared Socioeconomic Pathway). Our simulations predict 5.2–8.7 mm of sea-level rise from Humboldt Glacier, significantly higher than a previous estimate (∼ 3.5 mm) and equivalent to a substantial fraction of the 40–140 mm predicted by ISMIP6 from the whole Greenland Ice Sheet. Our larger future sea-level rise prediction results from the transient calibration of our basal friction law to match the observed speedup, which requires a semi-plastic bed rheology. In many simulations, our model predicts the growth of a sizable ice shelf in the middle of the 21st century. Thus, atmospheric warming could lead to more retreat than predicted here if increased surface melt promotes hydrofracture of the ice shelf. Our data-constrained simulations of Humboldt Glacier underscore the sensitivity of model predictions of Greenland outlet glacier response to warming to choices of basal shear stress and iceberg calving parameterizations. Further, transient calibration of these parameterizations, which has not typically been performed, is necessary to reproduce observed behavior. Current estimates of future sea-level rise from the Greenland Ice Sheet could, therefore, contain significant biases.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗