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At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Assimilating Scanning Radar Data into High-Resolution Models

This report documents the findings of a project aiming to improve the initial conditions of km-scale simulations of deep convective storms by assimilating cloud-scale weather radar observations. More accurate numerical analyses will increase the effectiveness of research efforts using LES cloud models as tool to better understand land-atmosphere coupling, boundary layer turbulence, and cloud processes, each used for model parameterization development. Work reported on herein includes: i) assessment of radar data sets for use in data assimilation (‘DA’) experiments, ii) quality control of the radar data set and format conversion to one acceptable to DA schemes utilized by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, and iii) examination of the sensitivity of the numerical representation of cloud-scale wind and microphysical features to a variety of tunable DA parameters.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The ICON-A model for direct QBO simulations on GPUs (version icon-cscs:baf28a514)

Abstract. Classical numerical models for the global atmosphere, as used for numerical weather forecasting or climate research, have been developed for conventional central processing unit (CPU) architectures. This hinders the employment of such models on current top-performing supercomputers, which achieve their computing power with hybrid architectures, mostly using graphics processing units (GPUs). Thus also scientific applications of such models are restricted to the lesser computer power of CPUs. Here we present the development of a GPU-enabled version of the ICON atmosphere model (ICON-A), motivated by a research project on the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), a global-scale wind oscillation in the equatorial stratosphere that depends on a broad spectrum of atmospheric waves, which originates from tropical deep convection. Resolving the relevant scales, from a few kilometers to the size of the globe, is a formidable computational problem, which can only be realized now on top-performing supercomputers. This motivated porting ICON-A, in the specific configuration needed for the research project, in a first step to the GPU architecture of the Piz Daint computer at the Swiss National Supercomputing Centre and in a second step to the JUWELS Booster computer at the Forschungszentrum Jülich. On Piz Daint, the ported code achieves a single-node GPU vs. CPU speedup factor of 6.4 and allows for global experiments at a horizontal resolution of 5 km on 1024 computing nodes with 1 GPU per node with a turnover of 48 simulated days per day. On JUWELS Booster, the more modern hardware in combination with an upgraded code base allows for simulations at the same resolution on 128 computing nodes with 4 GPUs per node and a turnover of 133 simulated days per day. Additionally, the code still remains functional on CPUs, as is demonstrated by additional experiments on the Levante compute system at the German Climate Computing Center. While the application shows good weak scaling over the tested 16-fold increase in grid size and node count, making also higher resolved global simulations possible, the strong scaling on GPUs is relatively poor, which limits the options to increase turnover with more nodes. Initial experiments demonstrate that the ICON-A model can simulate downward-propagating QBO jets, which are driven by wave–mean flow interaction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Identifying snowfall elevation patterns by assimilating satellite-based snow depth retrievals

Precipitation in mountain regions is highly variable and poorly measured, posing important challenges to water resource management. Traditional methods to estimate precipitation include in-situ gauges, Doppler weather radars, satellite radars and radiometers, numerical modeling and reanalysis products. Each of these methods is unable to adequately capture complex orographic precipitation. Here, we propose a novel approach to characterize orographic snowfall over mountain regions. We use a particle batch smoother to leverage satellite information from Sentinel-1 derived snow depth retrievals and to correct various gridded precipitation products. This novel approach is tested using a simple snow model for an alpine basin located in Trentino Alto Adige, Italy. Here, we quantify the precipitation biases across the basin and found that the assimilation method (i) corrects for snowfall biases and uncertainties, (ii) leads to cumulative snowfall elevation patterns that are consistent across precipitation products, and (iii) results in overall improved basin-wide snow variables (snow depth and snow cover area) and basin streamflow estimates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Revisiting the Hail Radar Reflectivity–Kinetic Energy Flux Relation by Combining T-Matrix and Discrete Dipole Approximation Calculations to Size Distribution Observations

The retrieval of hail kinetic energy with weather radars or its simulation in numerical models is challenging because of the shape complexity and variable density of hailstones. We combine 3D scans of individual hailstones with measurements of the particle size distributions (PSD) and T-matrix calculations to understand how hail reflectivity Z changes when approximating hailstones as spheroids, as compared to the realistic shapes obtained by 3D scanning technology. Additionally, recent terminal velocity relations are used to compare Z to the hail kinetic energy flux E ˙ . We parameterize the hail backscattering cross sections at L, S, C, and X bands as a function of size between 0.5 and 5.0 cm, matching the range of the observed PSDs. The scattering calculations use the T-matrix method for size parameters below 1.0 and the discrete dipole approximation (DDA) method otherwise. The DDA calculations are done for 48 digital models of realistic hailstones of sizes between 1 and 5 cm. The DDA cross sections are calculated for multiple orientations and averaged assuming a fully random orientation distribution to provide a single value per hailstone. The T-matrix reflectivity assuming solid ice spheres presents negligible differences to DDA results for size parameters below 1.0. Therefore, T matrix was used to fill in the gaps left by the DDA calculations. The results are mapped to the same size bins of the observed PSDs, allowing the calculation of the radar reflectivity. This is then correlated to E ˙ , allowing a potential improvement of past retrieval methods of E ˙ from Z in multiple wavelengths.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Confronting the Challenge of Modeling Cloud and Precipitation Microphysics

In the atmosphere, microphysics refers to the microscale processes that affect cloud and precipitation particles and is a key linkage among the various components of Earth’s atmospheric water and energy cycles. The representation of microphysical processes in models continues to pose a major challenge leading to uncertainty in numerical weather forecasts and climate simulations. In this paper, the problem of treating microphysics in models is divided into two parts: i) how to represent the population of cloud and precipitation particles, given the impossibility of simulating all particles individually within a cloud, and ii) uncertainties in the microphysical process rates owing to fundamental gaps in knowledge of cloud physics. The recently-developed Lagrangian particle-based method is advocated as a way to address several conceptual and practical challenges of representing particle populations using traditional bulk and bin microphysics parameterization schemes. For addressing critical gaps in cloud physics knowledge, sustained investment for observational advances from laboratory experiments, new probe development, and next-generation instruments in space is needed. Greater emphasis on laboratory work, which has apparently declined over the past several decades relative to other areas of cloud physics research, is argued to be an essential ingredient for improving process-level understanding. More systematic use of natural cloud and precipitation observations to constrain microphysics schemes is also advocated. Because it is generally difficult to quantify individual microphysical process rates from these observations directly, this presents an inverse problem that can be viewed from the standpoint of Bayesian statistics. Following this idea, a probabilistic framework is proposed that combines elements from statistical and physical modeling. Besides providing rigorous constraint of schemes, there is an added benefit of quantifying uncertainty systematically. Finally, a broader hierarchical approach is proposed to accelerate improvements in microphysics schemes, leveraging the advances described in this paper related to process modeling (using Lagrangian particle-based schemes), laboratory experimentation, cloud and precipitation observations, and statistical methods.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

An evaluation of size-resolved cloud microphysics scheme numerics for use with radar observations Part II: Condensation and evaporation

Accurate numerical modeling of clouds and precipitation is essential for weather forecasting and climate change research. While size-resolved (bin) cloud microphysics models predict particle size distributions without imposing shapes, results are subject to artificial size distribution broadening owing to numerical diffusion associated with various processes. Whereas Part I of this study addressed collision–coalescence, here we investigate numerical diffusion that occurs in solving condensation and evaporation. In a parcel model framework, all of the numerical schemes examined converge to one solution of condensation and evaporation as the mass grid is refined, and the advection-based schemes are recommended over the reassigning schemes. Including Eulerian vertical advection in a column limits the convergence to some extent, but that limitation occurs at a sufficiently fine mass grid, and the number of iterations in solving vertical advection should be minimized to reduce numerical diffusion. Insubstantial numerical diffusion in solving condensation can be amplified if collision–coalescence is also active, which in turn can be substantially diminished if turbulence effects on collision are incorporated. Here, large-eddy simulations of a drizzling stratocumulus field reveal that changes in moments of Doppler spectra obtained using different mass grids are consistent with those obtained from the simplified framework, and that spectral moments obtained using a mass grid designed to effectively reduce numerical diffusion are generally closer to observations. Notable differences between the simulations and observations still exist, and our results suggest a need to consider whether factors other than numerical diffusion in the fundamental process schemes employed can cause such differences.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Validation and Sensitivity Analysis of a 1-D Lake Model Across Global Lakes

Lakes have important influence on weather and climate from local to global scales. However, their prediction using numerical models is notoriously difficult because lakes are highly heterogeneous across the globe, but observations are sparse. In this study, we assessed the performance of a 1-D lake model in simulating the thermal structures of 58 lakes with diverse morphometric and geographic characteristics by following the phase 2a local lake protocol of the Inter-sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2a). After calibration, the root-mean-square errors (RMSE) were below 2 °C for 70% and 75% of the lakes for epilimnion and full-profile temperature simulations, with an average of 1.71 °C and 1.43 °C, respectively. The model performance mainly depended on lake shape rather than location, supporting the possibility of grouping model parameters by lake shape for global applications. Furthermore, through machine-learning based parameter sensitivity tests, we identified turbulent heat fluxes, wind-driven mixing and water transparency as the major processes controlling lake thermal and mixing regimes. Snow density was also important for modeling the ice phenology of high-latitude lakes. The relative influence of the key processes and the corresponding parameters mainly depended on lake latitude and depth. Turbulent heat fluxes showed a decreasing importance in affecting epilimnion temperature with increasing latitude. Wind-driven mixing was less influential to lake stratification for deeper lakes while the impact of light extinction, on the contrary, showed a positive correlation with depth. Our findings may guide improvements in 1-D lake model parameterizations to achieve higher fidelity in simulating global lake thermal dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Physics-Reinforced Machine Learning Algorithms for Multiscale Closure Model Discovery

The central objective of this project was to address the challenge of modeling and simulating complex multiscale turbulence phenomena by leveraging physics-guided machine learning (PGML) and hybrid modeling approaches. By integrating physics-based methods with data-driven models, the research focused on achieving robust and scalable solutions for geophysical turbulence, enhancing numerical weather prediction and climate research tools. The project resulted in significant advancements in computational modeling paradigms, predictive tools for reduced-order modeling, and innovative algorithms for fluid dynamics.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Yield Estimation of the August 2020 Beirut Explosion by Using Physics‐Based Propagation Simulations of Regional Infrasound

Abstract The August 2020 Beirut explosion is the largest single‐fired ammonium nitrate explosion documented in history. The massive explosion excited loud infrasound in the atmosphere, and clear waveforms were recorded by a regional infrasound array at an epicentral distance of 100 km, allowing for accurate measurements of explosion energy. We estimate the explosion size based on the infrasound waveform inversion. Unlike conventional inversions using empirical models, we perform full 3‐D finite‐difference simulations to obtain a physics‐based propagation model for the inversion. Accurate numerical modeling of infrasound is challenging as the propagation is substantially affected by the turbulent atmosphere. Instead of a single deterministic prediction, we provide a range of waveform predictions by running multiple simulations with stochastic weather forecast models, which allows for comprehensive uncertainty analysis of numerical modeling and estimated yields. Finally, we expand the yield estimation technique for seismoacoustic analysis and demonstrate the substantial advantage of the joint approach.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Impact of Circumsolar Diffuse Radiation on the Numerical Computation and Forecasting of DNI

Weather Research and Forecasting model with solar extensions (WRF-Solar) uses the Fast All-sky Radiation Model for Solar applications (FARMS) to predict solar radiation from the forecasted atmospheric gases, aerosols, and clouds. The Beer-Bouguer-Lambert law utilized by FARMS as well as other radiative transfer models assumes Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) is a narrow beam only covering the sun disk. This assumption is interpreted differently in solar observations by pyrheliometers where the circumsolar diffuse radiation is accounted. This study precisely computes circumsolar diffuse radiation in all-sky conditions using a radiative transfer model based on a parameterization of precomputed cloud transmittance and reflectance. The model is implemented in WRF-Solar to provide day-ahead DNI forecast in the north America. The computation and forecasting of DNI is compared with the Beer-Bouguer-Lambert law to understand the impact of circumsolar diffuse radiation.

aerosols↗
DOE OSTI2020

Turbulent kinetic energy over large offshore wind farms observed and simulated by the mesoscale model WRF (3.8.1)

Abstract. Wind farms affect local weather and microclimates;hence, parameterizations of their effects have been developed for numerical weather prediction models.While most wind farm parameterizations (WFPs) include drag effects of wind farms, models differ on whether or not an additionalturbulent kinetic energy (TKE) source should be included in theseparameterizations to simulate the impact of wind farms on the boundary layer.Therefore, we use aircraft measurements above large offshore wind farms in stable conditions to evaluateWFP choices. Of the three case studies we examine, we find the simulated ambient backgroundflow to agree with observations of temperature stratification and winds. This agreement allows us toexplore the sensitivity of simulated wind farm effects with respect to modeling choicessuch as whether or not to include a TKE source, horizontal resolution, vertical resolutionand advection of TKE. For a stably stratified marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL), a TKE source and a horizontal resolutionon the order of 5 km or finer are necessary to represent the impact of offshore wind farms on the MABL.Additionally, TKE advection results in excessively reduced TKE over the wind farms, which in turn causesan underestimation of the wind speed deficit above the wind farm. Furthermore, using fine verticalresolution increases the agreement of the simulated wind speed with satellite observations of surface wind speed.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Efficient high-dimensional variational data assimilation with machine-learned reduced-order models

Abstract. Data assimilation (DA) in geophysical sciences remains the cornerstone of robust forecasts from numerical models. Indeed, DA plays a crucial role in the quality of numerical weather prediction and is a crucial building block that has allowed dramatic improvements in weather forecasting over the past few decades. DA is commonly framed in a variational setting, where one solves an optimization problem within a Bayesian formulation using raw model forecasts as a prior and observations as likelihood. This leads to a DA objective function that needs to be minimized, where the decision variables are the initial conditions specified to the model. In traditional DA, the forward model is numerically and computationally expensive. Here we replace the forward model with a low-dimensional, data-driven, and differentiable emulator. Consequently, gradients of our DA objective function with respect to the decision variables are obtained rapidly via automatic differentiation. We demonstrate our approach by performing an emulator-assisted DA forecast of geopotential height. Our results indicate that emulator-assisted DA is faster than traditional equation-based DA forecasts by 4 orders of magnitude, allowing computations to be performed on a workstation rather than a dedicated high-performance computer. In addition, we describe accuracy benefits of emulator-assisted DA when compared to simply using the emulator for forecasting (i.e., without DA). Our overall formulation is denoted AIEADA (Artificial Intelligence Emulator-Assisted Data Assimilation).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Potential Benefits of Handling Mixture Statistics via a Bi-Gaussian EnKF: Tests With All-Sky Satellite Infrared Radiances

The meteorological characteristics of cloudy atmospheric columns can be very different from their clear counterparts. Thus, when a forecast ensemble is uncertain about the presence/absence of clouds at a specific atmospheric column (i.e., some members are clear while others are cloudy), that column's ensemble statistics will contain a mixture of clear and cloudy statistics. Such mixtures are inconsistent with the ensemble data assimilation algorithms currently used in numerical weather prediction. Hence, ensemble data assimilation algorithms that can handle such mixtures can potentially outperform currently used algorithms. In this study, we demonstrate the potential benefits of addressing such mixtures through a bi-Gaussian extension of the ensemble Kalman filter (BGEnKF). The BGEnKF is compared against the commonly used ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) using perfect model observing system simulated experiments (OSSEs) with a realistic weather model (the Weather Research and Forecast model). Synthetic all-sky infrared radiance observations are assimilated in this study. In these OSSEs, the BGEnKF outperforms the EnKF in terms of the horizontal wind components, temperature, specific humidity, and simulated upper tropospheric water vapor channel infrared brightness temperatures. This study is one of the first to demonstrate the potential of a Gaussian mixture model EnKF with a realistic weather model. Our results thus motivate future research toward improving numerical Earth system predictions though explicitly handling mixture statistics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic Solar Power Forecasting Using Bayesian Model Averaging

There is rising interest in probabilistic forecasting to mitigate risks from solar power uncertainty, but the numerical weather prediction (NWP) ensembles readily available to system operators are often biased and underdispersed. We propose a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) post-processing method suitable for forecasting power from utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) plants at multiple time horizons up to at least the day-ahead timescale. BMA is a kernel dressing technique for NWP ensembles in which the forecast is a weighted sum of member-specific probability density functions. We tailor BMA for utility-scale PV forecasting by modeling power clipping at the AC inverter rating and advance the theory of BMA with a new beta kernel parameterization that accommodates theoretical constraints not previously addressed. BMA is demonstrated for a case study of 11 utility-scale PV plants in Texas, forecasting at hourly resolution for the complete year 2018. BMA's mixture-model approach mitigates underdispersion of the raw ensemble to significantly improve forecast calibration, while consistently outperforming an ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) parametric approach from the literature. At 4-hour lead time, the BMA post-processing achieves continuous ranked probability skill scores of 2--36% over the raw ensemble, with consistent performance at multiple lead times suitable for power system operations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Resolved Gravity Waves in the Extratropical Stratosphere: Effect of Horizontal Resolution Increase from O (10) to O (1) km

Global ECMWF IFS simulations with horizontal grid spacings of 1, 4, and 9 km are used to assess gravity wave forcing (GWF) in the extratropical stratosphere. Results with important implications for GWF parameterizations at high and intermediate resolutions are presented. A doubling in the zonal-mean resolved GWF is observed when the horizontal resolution is increased from 9 to 1 km. Small-scale gravity waves with horizontal wavelengths < 100 km dominate this increase. Over most regions, excluding the polar night jet in the Antarctic spring, the total (resolved + parameterized) GWF at 9 km (4 km) is underestimated by up to 30% (15%). This implies that the parameterization of GWF is still required at 9 and 4 km horizontal resolutions. Despite the small land area in the Southern Hemisphere (SH), the resolved orographic and nonorographic GWF contribute equally to the total GWF in the SH at 1 km resolution. This is not reflected in the partitioning of the parameterized GWF, which has a significantly larger nonorographic contribution at 9 km. As a result, a zonal-mean momentum budget analysis reveals that the total GWF contributes one-third of SH springtime polar vortex deceleration at 1 km, whereas the contribution is as much as 50% at 9 km. In conclusion, this suggests that a rebalancing of the parameterized nonorographic and orographic GWF is required.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Deep Learning for Ensemble Forecasting

Focal Area: (2) Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and AI-derived model components and the use of AI and other tools to design a prediction system comprising a hierarchy of models. Science Challenge: While both climate and weather forecast systems have continued to improve due to substantial efforts to improve computational capabilities, observations, and numerical models, the atmosphere is a chaotic system, and this puts a fundamental limit on our ability to make predictions. Forecasts made by high-resolution models initialized with only slightly different atmospheric states can quickly diverge. Quantifying uncertainty in forecasts is essential to adequately understand them and to make the best-informed policy decisions particularly when it comes to hydrology, extreme weather (including extreme precipitation events), and climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Amazon and La Plata River Basins as Moisture Sources of South America: Climatology and Intraseasonal Variability

Abstract Land‐atmosphere interactions are critical for precipitation (PPT) over South America where terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET) constitutes a significant fraction of moisture for rainfall over the ecologically and socio‐economically vital Amazon (AMZ) and La Plata (LPB) river basins. We quantify the contribution of ET from AMZ and LPB to PPT over the continent with a focus on the intraseasonal time scale. Using numerical water tracers embedded in the Weather Research and Forecasting model we track the moisture originating from the two basins. Our findings indicate that approximately 40% of annual rainfall over the eastern foothills of the Andes originates as AMZ ET, and nearly 30% of rainfall over northern Argentina originates as LPB ET. Analysis of moisture transport during both phases of the dominant intraseasonal oscillation pattern over South America reveals an intraseasonal “sloshing” of LPB moisture between the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) and southeastern South America (SESA) regions. AMZ and LPB each supply approximately 6% of moisture for SACZ PPT during periods of intraseasonal enhancement (positive anomalies), highlighting the importance of moisture from the Atlantic Ocean. For the SESA region, LPB supplies 26% of the moisture for PPT during periods of intraseasonal enhancement while AMZ supplies 5%.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Constraining chaos: Enforcing dynamical invariants in the training of reservoir computers

Drawing on ergodic theory, we introduce a novel training method for machine learning based forecasting methods for chaotic dynamical systems. The training enforces dynamical invariants—such as the Lyapunov exponent spectrum and the fractal dimension—in the systems of interest, enabling longer and more stable forecasts when operating with limited data. The technique is demonstrated in detail using reservoir computing, a specific kind of recurrent neural network. Finally, results are given for the Lorenz 1996 chaotic dynamical system and a spectral quasi-geostrophic model of the atmosphere, both typical test cases for numerical weather prediction.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗