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177 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Environmental Controls on Water Vapor Deuterium Excess in the Coastal Boundary Layer: An Information Theory Perspective

We use information theory to quantify the environmental controls on water vapor deuterium excess (D-excess) in coastal Southern California from June 2023 through February 2024. Using Shannon entropy, mutual information (MI), and joint mutual information, metrics that capture both linear and nonlinear relationships, we identify the most informative variables and variable combinations governing D-excess across contrasting marine and continental regimes. Relative humidity with respect to sea surface temperature (RHS) is consistently the strongest individual predictor, explaining up to 27% of D-excess variability during marine conditions but only 10% in continental air masses. The Relative humidity(RHS) + sea surface temperature (SST) combination demonstrates synergistic effects, where their joint influence (explaining up to 36% of D-excess variability) exceeds what either variable achieves individually, confirming their coupled influence on deuterium excess. Wind direction complements RHS most effectively during continental conditions. The best three-variable combination (RHS + SST + Planetary Boundary Layer height) explains 38% of D-excess variability in marine air, while no combination exceeds 20% explanatory power during continental periods. Information theory shows that heteroscedasticity in D-excess relationships indicates regime shifts in controlling processes and quantifies fundamental constraints on predictor variables: some environmental factors like surface pressure or water vapor flux contain insufficient information content to explain D-excess variability regardless of their physical relevance. These results highlight the different predictability limits between marine and continental regimes, challenging the adequacy of linear models and providing a rigorous framework for quantifying the information content of isotope-climate relationships with implications for both modern and paleoclimate applications.

information theory↗
DOE OSTI2026

Stability and Characteristics of Lower-hybrid Drift Waves: Dependence on Electron Beta and Cross-field Relative Drift

Lower-hybrid drift waves (LHDWs) are frequently observed microinstabilities in both space and laboratory plasmas. Despite decades of study, the relationship between electrostatic (ES-LHDW) and electromagnetic (EM-LHDW) variants and the plasma parameters controlling their stability remains unclear. Here, we systematically examine LHDW behavior by solving the local linear dispersion relation over a wide range of plasma and field conditions. Our results demonstrate that ES-LHDWs and EM-LHDWs are not distinct modes but rather two different regimes of the same drift wave whose character evolves smoothly with electron beta (β e ) and the cross-field electron drift velocity relative to ions, normalized to the ion sound speed (u 0x /C s ). The nature of the waves changes from electrostatic to electromagnetic when β e increases. Growth rates increase with u 0x /C s but decrease with β e , while the most unstable wavelength remains nearly universal, with kρ e ∼ 0.8 (k is the magnitude of the wave vector and ρ e is the electron gyroradius). We further present quasi-linear estimates of nonlinear saturation properties, including energy partition among electric fields, magnetic fields, and particle kinetic responses. We show that ES-LHDWs reach higher electric-field saturation amplitudes, whereas EM-LHDWs generate strong magnetic perturbations and parallel electric fields that may enable efficient particle heating. Comparisons with the classical model reveal that retaining electromagnetic effects is essential for accurate predictions of frequency, growth rate, and the propagation angle. These findings provide a unified framework for understanding LHDWs across diverse collisionless plasma environments, including current sheets of magnetic reconnection, shear layers, collisionless shocks, and boundary regions.

Solar coronal waves↗
DOE OSTI2023

New Developments and Capabilities Within WEC-Sim

WEC-Sim is an open-source software for simulating wave energy converters and has been actively developed and applied since its initial release in 2014 to simulate a wide variety of device archetypes. WEC-Sim is developed jointly by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and Sandia National Laboratories within the MATLAB/SIMULINK environment. A general wave-to-wire model begins with a deployment site resource characterization, which is used to complete the hydrodynamic simulation of wave energy converters (WEC), with the power generation profile imported to a grid simulator to understand the influence on the local electrical network. While modeling the entire wave-to-wire is difficult and encompasses multiple time scales and physics, WEC-Sim is focused on the hydrodynamics simulation to predict, analyze, and optimize WEC dynamics and power performance. WEC-Sim simulations are performed in the time domain based on the radiation and diffraction method using hydrodynamics coefficients derived from boundary element method (BEM)-based frequency-domain potential flow solvers (e.g., WAMIT, NEMOH, Capytaine, or ANSYS-AQWA). With this level of modeling fidelity, WEC-Sim can handle floating body hydrodynamics, mechanical and electrical power generation methods, advanced control implementation, mooring systems, and other unique applications such as desalination. Additional WEC-Sim functionalities include pre-built Simulink blocks and MATLAB scripts that can simulate a wide range of floating systems and the corresponding auxiliary subsystems. The developers of WEC-Sim continue to release new versions of the software, at least annually, with the latest release in September 2022. These releases include bug fixes, updates to software documentation, as well as new features to expand WEC-Sim's capabilities to model a wide range of WEC concepts. This publication will highlight the new features added to WEC-Sim between versions 4.1.0 to 5.0.1, which spans a 2-year period from June 2020 to September 2022. New features described here include topics such as continuous integration checks, revised Morison Element and nonlinear hydro implementations, run directly from Simulink (required for hardware-in-the-loop execution), BEMIO updates to import Capytaine BEM hydrodynamics, addition of cable blocks, and new wave visualization features.

TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2023

New Developments and Capabilities Within WEC-Sim: Preprint

WEC-Sim is an open-source software for simulating wave energy converters, which has been actively developed and applied since its initial release in 2014 to simulate a wide variety of device archetypes. WEC-Sim is developed jointly by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) within the MATLAB/SIMULINK environment. A general wave-to-wire model begins with a deployment site resource characterization, which is used to complete the hydrodynamic simulation of wave energy converters (WEC), with the power generation profile imported to a grid simulator to understand the influence on the local electrical network. While modeling the entire wave-to-wire is difficult and encompasses multiple time scales and physics, WEC-Sim is focused on the hydrodynamics simulation to predict, analyze, and optimize WEC dynamics and power performance. WEC-Sim simulations are performed in the time domain based on the radiation and diffraction method using hydrodynamics coefficients derived from boundary element method (BEM)-based frequency-domain potential flow solvers (e.g., WAMIT, NEMOH, Capytaine, or ANSYS-AQWA). With this level of modeling fidelity, WEC-Sim can handle floating body hydrodynamics, mechanical and electrical power generation methods, advanced control implementation, mooring systems, and other unique applications such as desalination. Additional WEC-Sim functionalities include pre-built Simulink blocks and MATLAB scripts that can simulate a wide range of floating systems and the corresponding auxiliary subsystems. The developers of WEC-Sim continue to release new versions of the software, at least annually, with our latest release in September 2022. These releases include bug fixes, updates to software documentation, as well as new features to expand WEC-Sim's capabilities to model a wide range of WEC concepts. This publication will highlight the new features added to WEC-Sim between versions 4.1.0 to 5.0.1 which spans over a two year period from June 2020 to September 2022. New features to be described will include topics such as continuous integration checks, revised Morison Element and nonlinear hydro implementations, run directly from Simulink (required for hardware-in-the-loop execution), BEMIO updates to import Capytaine BEM hydrodynamics, addition of cable blocks, and new wave visualization features.

TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2021

Nominal and adversarial synthetic PMU data for standard IEEE test systems

GridSTAGE (Spatio-Temporal Adversarial scenario GEneration) is a framework for the simulation of adversarial scenarios and the generation of multivariate spatio-temporal data in cyber-physical systems. GridSTAGE is developed based on Matlab and leverages Power System Toolbox (PST) where the evolution of the power network is governed by nonlinear differential equations. Using GridSTAGE, one can create several event scenarios that correspond to several operating states of the power network by enabling or disabling any of the following: faults, AGC control, PSS control, exciter control, load changes, generation changes, and different types of cyber-attacks. Standard IEEE bus system data is used to define the power system environment. GridSTAGE emulates the data from PMU and SCADA sensors. The rate of frequency and location of the sensors can be adjusted as well. Detailed instructions on generating data scenarios with different system topologies, attack characteristics, load characteristics, sensor configuration, control parameters are available in the Github repository - https://github.com/pnnl/GridSTAGE. There is no existing adversarial data-generation framework that can incorporate several attack characteristics and yield adversarial PMU data. The GridSTAGE framework currently supports simulation of False Data Injection attacks (such as a ramp, step, random, trapezoidal, multiplicative, replay, freezing) and Denial of Service attacks (such as time-delay, packet-loss) on PMU data. Furthermore, it supports generating spatio-temporal time-series data corresponding to several random load changes across the network or corresponding to several generation changes. A Koopman mode decomposition (KMD) based algorithm to detect and identify the false data attacks in real-time is proposed in https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/9303022. Machine learning-based predictive models are developed to capture the dynamics of the underlying power system with a high level of accuracy under various operating conditions for IEEE 68 bus system. The corresponding machine learning models are available at https://github.com/pnnl/grid_prediction.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Time scales for nonlinear processes in preheating after multifield inflation with nonminimal couplings

We have conducted extensive lattice simulations to study the postinflation dynamics of multifield models involving nonminimal couplings. In this work, we explore the parameter dependence of preheating in these models and describe the various time scales that control such nonlinear processes as energy transfer, rescattering, and the approach to radiation domination and thermalization. In the limit of large nonminimal couplings ($ξ_I$ ~ 100), we find that efficient transfer of energy from the inflaton condensate to radiative degrees of freedom, emergence of a radiation-dominated equation of state, and the onset of thermalization each consistently occur within $N_{\text{reh}} ≲ 3 e$-folds after the end of inflation, largely independent of the values of the other couplings in the models. The exception is the case of negative ellipticity, in which there is a misalignment between the dominant direction in field space along which the system evolves and the larger of the nonminimal couplings $ξ_I$. In those cases, the field-space-driven parametric resonance is effectively shut off. More generally, the competition between the scalar fields’ potential and the field-space manifold structure can yield interesting phenomena such as two-stage resonances. Across many regions of parameter space, we find efficient re-scattering between the distinct fields, leading to a partial memory loss of the shape of the initial fluctuation spectrum. Despite the explosive particle production, which can lead to a quick depletion of the background energy density, the nonlinear processes do not induce any superhorizon correlations after the end of inflation in these models, which keeps predictions for cosmic microwave background observables unaffected by the late-time amplification of isocurvature fluctuations. Hence the excellent agreement between primordial observables and recent observations is preserved for this class of models, even when we consider postinflation dynamics.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Kinetics of solid–liquid interface motion in molecular dynamics and phase-field models: crystallization of chromium and silicon

The results of molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of the crystallization process in one-component materials and solid solution alloys reveal a complex temperature dependence of the velocity of the crystal–liquid interface featuring an increase up to a maximum at 10–30% undercooling below the equilibrium melting temperature followed by a gradual decrease of the velocity at deeper levels of undercooling. At the qualitative level, such non-monotonous behaviour of the crystallization front velocity is consistent with the diffusion-controlled crystallization process described by the Wilson–Frenkel model, where the almost linear increase of the interface velocity in the vicinity of melting temperature is defined by the growth of the thermodynamic driving force for the phase transformation, while the decrease in atomic mobility with further increase of the undercooling drives the velocity through the maximum and into a gradual decrease at lower temperatures. At the quantitative level, however, the diffusional model fails to describe the results of MD simulations in the whole range of temperatures with a single set of parameters for some of the model materials. The limited ability of the existing theoretical models to adequately describe the MD results is illustrated in the present work for two materials, chromium and silicon. It is also demonstrated that the MD results can be well described by the solution following from the hodograph equation, previously found from the kinetic phase-field model (kinetic PFM) in the sharp interface limit. The ability of the hodograph equation to describe the predictions of MD simulation in the whole range of temperatures is related to the introduction of slow (phase field) and fast (gradient flow) variables into the original kinetic PFM from which the hodograph equation is obtained. The slow phase-field variable is responsible for the description of data at small undercoolings and the fast gradient flow variable accounts for local non-equilibrium effects at high undercoolings. The introduction of these two types of variables makes the solution of the hodograph equation sufficiently flexible for a reliable description of all nonlinearities of the kinetic curves predicted in MD simulations of Cr and Si. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Transport phenomena in complex systems (part 1)’.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Modeling Offshore Wind Farm Performance in Coastal Low-Level Jets Using Coupled Mesoscale-Microscale Large Eddy Simulations

Accurately predicting wind farm reliability under complex offshore atmospheric conditions remains a key challenge, particularly during noncanonical meteorological events such as coastal low-level jets (LLJs). LLJs, characterized by strong nonmonotonic vertical shear and directional veer, depart significantly from the simplified inflow assumptions embedded in conventional design standards, low-fidelity engineering models, and microscale large eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary layer. In this work, we use the virtual wind farm framework—an exascale, graphics processing unit–accelerated large eddy simulation platform coupled with high-fidelity aeroservoelastic turbine models and advanced mesoscale-microscale coupling via the ExaWind software stack—to investigate turbine responses under realistic LLJ forcing. Simulations are performed over the U.S. North Atlantic offshore domain with the use of meteorological inputs from New York State Energy Research and Development Authority buoy data, focusing on a representative LLJ case impacting the International Energy Agency 15 MW reference turbine. Our results show that LLJs can cause up to 50% power deficits in downstream turbine rows and significantly amplify low-speed shaft and tower loads through nonlinear coupling between complex inflow characteristics and turbine structural dynamics. Two primary mechanisms drive these load amplifications: (1) unique LLJ inflow features—including veer and vertical/lateral shear—and (2) the downstream evolution of the flow under stable thermal stratification, which suppresses turbulence mixing and alters wake recovery. These mechanisms produce streamwise variations in turbine loading not captured by standard hub height–based metrics or existing design load case (DLC) definitions. This study highlights the critical role of rotor-scale flow gradients in driving fatigue and system-level aeroelastic responses, challenging current DLC and control strategies. We advocate the integration of full-flow field, environment-aware wind inputs into load modeling and control algorithms. By leveraging exascale computing to resolve mesoscale-microscale coupling, this work lays the groundwork for next-generation offshore wind turbine design and operation in meteorologically complex marine environments.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Predicting operational windows of ELMs suppression by resonant magnetic perturbations in the DIII-D and KSTAR tokamaks

A newly developed plasma response model, combining the nonlinear two-fluid MHD code TM1 and toroidal MHD code GPEC run in ideal mode, quantitatively predicts the narrow isolated q 95 windows (Δq 95 ~ 0.1) of ELM suppression by n = 1, 2 and 3 resonant magnetic perturbations (RMPs) in both DIII-D and KSTAR tokamaks across a wide range of plasma parameters. The key physics that unites both experimental observations and our simulations is the close alignment of essential resonant q-surfaces and the location of the top of the pedestal prior to an ELM. This alignment permits an applied RMP to produce field penetration due to the lower E × B rotation at the pedestal top rather than being screened. The model successfully predicts that narrow magnetic islands form when resonant field penetration occurs at the top of pedestal, and these islands are easily screened when q 95 moves off resonance, leading to very narrow windows of ELM suppression (typically Δq 95 ~ 0.1). Furthermore, the observed reduction in the pedestal height is also well captured by the calculated classical collisional transport across the island. We recover observed q 95 , β N and plasma shape dependence of ELM suppression due to the effect of magnetic islands on pedestal transport and Peeling-Ballooning- Mode (PBM) stability. Importantly, experiments do occasionally observe wide windows of ELM suppression (Δq 95 > 0.5). Our model reveals that at low pedestal-top density multiple islands open, leading to wide operational windows of ELM suppression consistent with experiment. The model indicates that wide q95 windows of ELM suppression can be achieved at substantially higher pedestal pressure with less confinement degradation in DIII-D by operating at higher toroidal mode number (n = 4) RMPs. As a result, this can have significant implications for the operation of the ITER ELM control coils for maintaining high confinement together with ELM suppression.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Improving Trustworthiness of Data-Driven Power Grid Contingency Analysis With Bayesian Residual Graph Neural Networks

The evolving energy landscape requires novel tools to efficiently perform contingency analysis and reliability assessment of power grids, potentially in real-time. The high computational cost of traditional power flow solvers limits their applicability in practice. Machine learning (ML) surrogates such as deep neural networks (NNs) accelerate power flow solvers computations, enabling high-order contingency analysis and real-time decision-making by learning highly nonlinear functions and integrating grid topology via graph architectures. However, (graph) NNs lack predictive power away from training data and do not provide predictive confidence estimates. Here, we present a Bayesian residual graph NN that integrates knowledge from low-fidelity data via residual training and embeds granular quantification of uncertainties, improving trustworthiness critical for high-consequence decision-making. Applying Bayesian concepts to NNs is challenging due to the high-dimensionality of both the parameter space, complicating derivation of a meaningful prior, and the output space in large grid systems, requiring enhanced techniques to assess the predicted high-dimensional uncertainties. Our contributions include: (1) Deriving a prior for fully connected and graph NNs that leverages low-fidelity data to guide mean predictions and appropriately control prior predictive uncertainty. (2) Integrating this prior within an ensembling with anchoring scheme for efficient approximate posterior inference. (3) Deriving enhanced metrics to assess accuracy of both the mean and uncertainty predictions in high dimensions, appropriately accounting for correlations propagated through graph layers. The resulting Bayesian residual graph NN is tested on a contingency analysis task for 14-bus and 118-bus grids.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Measuring the growth of Alfvén wave parametric decay instability using counter-propagating waves: Theory and simulations

The parametric decay instability (PDI) of Alfvén waves—where a pump Alfvén wave decays into a backward-propagating child Alfvén wave and a forward ion acoustic wave—is a fundamental nonlinear wave-wave interaction and holds significant implications for space and laboratory plasmas. However, to date there has been no direct experimental measurement of PDI. Here, we propose a novel and experimentally viable scheme to quantify the growth of Alfvén wave PDI on a linear device using a large pump Alfvén wave and a small counter-propagating seed Alfvén wave, with the seed-wave frequency tuned to match the backward Alfvén wave generated by standard PDI. Using hybrid simulations, we show that energy transfer from the pump to the seed reduces the latter's spatial damping. By comparing seed-wave amplitudes with and without the pump wave, this damping reduction can be used as a direct and reliable proxy for PDI growth. The method is validated in our simulations across a range of plasma and wave parameters and agrees well with theoretical predictions. Notably, the scheme exhibits no threshold for PDI excitation and is, in principle, readily implementable under current laboratory conditions. Finally, this scheme is a critical step toward solving the challenge of experimentally accessing Alfvén wave PDI and provides an elegant method that may be used to validate fundamental theories of parametric instabilities in controlled laboratory settings.

heliosphere↗
DOE OSTI2024

Overview of ASDEX upgrade results in view of ITER and DEMO

Experiments on ASDEX Upgrade (AUG) in 2021 and 2022 have addressed a number of critical issues for ITER and EU DEMO. A major objective of the AUG programme is to shed light on the underlying physics of confinement, stability, and plasma exhaust in order to allow reliable extrapolation of results obtained on present day machines to these reactor-grade devices. Concerning pedestal physics, the mitigation of edge localised modes (ELMs) using resonant magnetic perturbations (RMPs) was found to be consistent with a reduction of the linear peeling-ballooning stability threshold due to the helical deformation of the plasma. Conversely, ELM suppression by RMPs is ascribed to an increased pedestal transport that keeps the plasma away from this boundary. Candidates for this increased transport are locally enhanced turbulence and a locked magnetic island in the pedestal. The enhanced D-alpha (EDA) and quasi-continuous exhaust (QCE) regimes have been established as promising ELM-free scenarios. Here, the pressure gradient at the foot of the H-mode pedestal is reduced by a quasi-coherent mode, consistent with violation of the high-n ballooning mode stability limit there. This is suggestive that the EDA and QCE regimes have a common underlying physics origin. In the area of transport physics, full radius models for both L- and H-modes have been developed. These models predict energy confinement in AUG better than the commonly used global scaling laws, representing a large step towards the goal of predictive capability. A new momentum transport analysis framework has been developed that provides access to the intrinsic torque in the plasma core. In the field of exhaust, the X-Point Radiator (XPR), a cold and dense plasma region on closed flux surfaces close to the X-point, was described by an analytical model that provides an understanding of its formation as well as its stability, i.e., the conditions under which it transitions into a deleterious MARFE with the potential to result in a disruptive termination. With the XPR close to the divertor target, a new detached divertor concept, the compact radiative divertor, was developed. Here, the exhaust power is radiated before reaching the target, allowing close proximity of the X-point to the target. No limitations by the shallow field line angle due to the large flux expansion were observed, and sufficient compression of neutral density was demonstrated. With respect to the pumping of non-recycling impurities, the divertor enrichment was found to mainly depend on the ionisation energy of the impurity under consideration. In the area of MHD physics, analysis of the hot plasma core motion in sawtooth crashes showed good agreement with nonlinear 2-fluid simulations. This indicates that the fast reconnection observed in these events is adequately described including the pressure gradient and the electron inertia in the parallel Ohm’s law. Concerning disruption physics, a shattered pellet injection system was installed in collaboration with the ITER International Organisation. Thanks to the ability to vary the shard size distribution independently of the injection velocity, as well as its impurity admixture, it was possible to tailor the current quench rate, which is an important requirement for future large devices such as ITER. Progress was also made modelling the force reduction of VDEs induced by massive gas injection on AUG. The H-mode density limit was characterised in terms of safe operational space with a newly developed active feedback control method that allowed the stability boundary to be probed several times within a single discharge without inducing a disruptive termination. Regarding integrated operation scenarios, the role of density peaking in the confinement of the ITER baseline scenario (high plasma current) was clarified. The usual energy confinement scaling ITER98(p,y) does not capture this effect, but the more recent H20 scaling does, highlighting again the importance of developing adequate physics based models. Advanced tokamak scenarios, aiming at large non-inductive current fraction due to non-standard profiles of the safety factor in combination with high normalised plasma pressure were studied with a focus on their access conditions. A method to guide the approach of the targeted safety factor profiles was developed, and the conditions for achieving good confinement were clarified. Based on this, two types of advanced scenarios (‘hybrid’ and ‘elevated’

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Designing high-performance superconductors with nanoparticle inclusions: Comparisons to strong pinning theory

One of the most promising routes for achieving high critical currents in superconductors is to incorporate dispersed, non-superconducting nanoparticles to control the dissipative motion of vortices. However, these inclusions reduce the overall superconducting volume and can strain the interlaying superconducting matrix, which can detrimentally reduce T c . Consequently, an optimal balance must be achieved between the nanoparticle density n p and size d. Determining this balance requires garnering a better understanding of vortex–nanoparticle interactions, described by strong pinning theory. Here, we map the dependence of the critical current on nanoparticle size and density in (Y 0.77 , Gd 0.23 )Ba 2 Cu 3 O 7-δ films in magnetic fields of up to 35 T and compare the trends to recent results from time-dependent Ginzburg–Landau simulations. We identify consistency between the field-dependent critical current J c (B) and expectations from strong pinning theory. Specifically, we find that J c ∝ B -α , where α decreases from 0.66 to 0.2 with increasing density of nanoparticles and increases roughly linearly with nanoparticle size d/ξ (normalized to the coherence length). At high fields, the critical current decays faster (~B -1 ), suggesting that each nanoparticle has captured a vortex. When nanoparticles capture more than one vortex, a small, high-field peak is expected in J c (B). Due to a spread in defect sizes, this novel peak effect remains unresolved here. Finally, we reveal that the dependence of the vortex creep rate S on nanoparticle size and density roughly mirrors that of α, and we compare our results to low-T nonlinearities in S(T) that are predicted by strong pinning theory.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Nonlinear two-fluid modeling of plasma response to RMPs for the ELM control in the ITER baseline

Numerical modeling, combining the toroidal ideal MHD code GPEC and the nonlinear two-fluid MHD code TM1, was used for comprehensive studies of the plasma response to resonant magnetic perturbations (RMPs) with toroidal mode number n = 1–5 for controlling edge-localized modes (ELMs) in ITER for the standard operation scenario (15 MA Q = 10). Several issues related to RMP ELM control are investigated, including the optimization of the RMP coils configuration, the evaluation of the magnitude of density pump-out and the q95 windows of ELM suppression. GPEC calculates the magnetic response, which consistently includes the very important edge kink/peeling response to static magnetic perturbations. Furthermore, GPEC two-dimensional scans of the relative coil current phasing among the three rows of internal coils, at fixed coil current amplitude, reveal the optimal phasing for the RMP coil configuration with n = 1–5, respectively. The poloidal half wavelength of resonant mode at the edge of plasma calculated by GPEC indicates that the midplane row coils have the best resonant coupling with the plasma for n = 2, while the upper and lower row coils have the best resonant coupling with the plasma for n = 3. Based on the plasma kinetic equilibrium and the GPEC calculations of the magnetic response, TM1 was used to simulate the conditions for RMP field penetration in the ITER pedestal. TM1 shows magnetic island formation at the foot of ITER pedestal with RMP coil current threshold ranging from 4 kAt to 8 kAt with n = 2 to 4. These magnetic islands at the pedestal-foot lead to density pump-out, the magnitude of which scales as ${I}_{\text{RMP}}^{0.5}$ and ranges from 5% to 20% at the pedestal-top when scanning the coil current from 4 to 60 kAt. The density pump-out is found to be weaker for higher n RMP. The nonlinear TM1 simulations also show field penetration at the pedestal-top, where the threshold of RMP coil current depends on the q 95 . The alignment of the magnetic island and the location of the pedestal-top decreases the height and width of the pedestal to suppress ELMs. Simulations by two-dimensional scans of RMP coil current and q 95 reveal the accessible q 95 windows of ELM suppression for both n = 3 and 4 RMPs. The predicted q 95 windows of ELM suppression are very similar to the ones in currently operating tokamaks and the required RMP coil current for ELM suppression is less than 40–50 kAt, which is well within the designed capability for ITER. In addition, the simulations indicate that wide q 95 windows of ELM suppression may be accessible in ITER by operating with dominant n = 4 (or n = 5) RMPs.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Hybrid AI/ML and Computational Mechanics Based Approach for Time-Series State and Fatigue Life Estimation of Nuclear Reactor Components

Environmental fatigue modeling is a complex problem due to multiple failure modes and their intermixing. The failure modes are function of various underlying causes in addition to the corrosive effect of reactor coolant environment. Some of the major causes are time-dependence of material associated with cyclic loading, load sequence effect associated with random/variable amplitude loading, effect of strain amplitude and rates, effect of varying temperature (along both temporal and spatial directions) and the effect of mean strain and stress. The nonlinear intermixing of failure modes associated with above mentioned causing parameters makes the environmental fatigue modeling is a challenging task. Because of this challenge, fatigue is traditionally being modeled based on experimental data. However, test based empirical approach often requires hundreds of fatigue tests to model the above-mentioned intermixing failure causes even for a single material system. The problem is further exaggerated for reactor component made from multi-material systems such as made from both carbon and stainless-steel base metals and their similar and dissimilar metal welds. With the difficulty of conducting hundreds of fatigue tests to capture the above-mentioned intermixing failure causes, fatigue modeling approaches often depends on empirical models based on limited available test data such as available through ASME code and NUREG 6909. However, these limited test-data-based models may not be enough to accurately predict the life of reactor components. Accurate prediction of life of reactor component would become a necessity, particularly when the license of the reactors to be extended for long-term-operation (LTO) that is for well beyond its original design life of 40 years. The requirement of extending the license of reactor under LTO requires hundreds of fatigue tests to be conducted to understand the mechanism associated with the above-mentioned interdependent failure causes. However, conducting large number of fatigue tests is not a feasibility due to the cost involved. To address this issues Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) with the sponsorship of DOE Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program trying to develop a hybrid predictive modeling approach. This is based on limited experiment-data, Artificial-intelligence (AI) – Machine-Learning (ML) - Deep-Learning (DL) based techniques and Multiphysics-computational-mechanics based modeling tools. The hybrid approach not-only can improve the accuracy of the existing stress analysis and fatigue modeling approach but also can reduce the over-dependency on test-based approach. Towards this goal following are some of the major contributions based on ANL’s FY-20 environmental fatigue modeling activities: 1) A cyclic plasticity material model database for 82/182 dissimilar metal weld, which can be readily shared with US nuclear industry and regulatory agency on request. 2) A well validated analytical modeling methodology to perform cycle-by-cycle stress prediction under both constant amplitude fatigue loading and variable amplitude fatigue loading (with load-sequence effect). 3) An AI/ML/DL based methodology to predict unmeasurable cyclic strain based on other available sensor signals. This type of approach can be used for estimating strain in real reactor components from other sensor readings. 4) An AI/ML based approach to improve the US capability on environmental fatigue testing. This is by improving ANL’s existing environmental fatigue testing capacity to conduct ASME required strain-controlled tests (by controlling strain amplitudes and its rate), while not measuring the strain (due to the difficulty of placing an extensometer in a narrow autoclave in a PWR-water-test system). 5) A simulation and experiment based probabilistic modeling methodology for time-series fatigue state and life estimation of reactor metal such as dissimilar metal weld.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗