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At least 181 records · Page 10

Options for Upgrading Low-Voltage Spot Network Protection to Increase DER Interconnection Capacity

Existing standards and policies for interconnecting distributed energy resources (DERs) into low voltage spot networks severely limits the amount of DER installed on those networks to avoid negative impacts on protection systems. This report investigates options for upgrading the protection systems of spot networks to allow for additional DER installations beyond the normal limits (i.e., no reverse power flows allowed onto the MV system). Eight potential upgrade options are discussed that span various methods for new network protector algorithms, hardware upgrades, and the addition of communication. Each method has tradeoffs in terms of accuracy of detecting faults, requirements to upgrade equipment in the spot networks, need for communication, and sensitivity to false trips—all of which are explored in this report.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Detection of bearing failure in mechanical devices using neural networks

We present a novel time-domain method for the detection of faulty bearings that has direct applicability to monitoring the health of the turbo pumps on the Space Shuttle Main Engine. A feed-forward neural network was trained to detect modelled roller bearing faults on the basis of the periodicity of impact pulse trains. The network's performance was dependent upon the number of pulses in the network's input window and the signal-to-noise ratio of the input signal. To test the model's validity, we fit the model's parameters to an actual vibration signal generated by a faulty roller element bearing and applied the network trained on this model to detect faults in actual vibration data. When this network was tested on the actual vibration data, it correctly identified the vibration signal as a fault condition 76 percent of the time.

Burne, Richard A.↗

Cybersecurity of Networked Microgrids: Challenges Potential Solutions and Future Directions

Networked microgrids are clusters of geographically-close, islanded microgrids that can function as a single, aggregate island. This flexibility enables customer-level resilience and reliability improvements during extreme event outages and also reduces utility costs during normal grid operations. To achieve this cohesive operation, microgrid controllers and external connections (including advanced communication protocols, protocol translators, and/or internet connection) are needed. However, these advancements also increase the vulnerability landscape of networked microgrids, and significant consequences could arise during networked operation, increasing cascading impact. To address these issues, this report seeks to understand the unique components, functions, and communications within networked microgrids and what cybersecurity solutions can be implemented and what solutions need to be developed. A literature review of microgrid cybersecurity research is provided and a gap analysis of what is additionally needed for securing networked microgrids is performed. Relevant cyber hygiene and best practices to implement are provided, as well as ideas on how cybersecurity can be integrated into networked microgrid design. Lastly, future directions of networked microgrid cybersecurity R&D are provided to inform next steps.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Airport Surface Network Architecture Definition

Currently, airport surface communications are fragmented across multiple types of systems. These communication systems for airport operations at most airports today are based dedicated and separate architectures that cannot support system-wide interoperability and information sharing. The requirements placed upon the Communications, Navigation, and Surveillance (CNS) systems in airports are rapidly growing and integration is urgently needed if the future vision of the National Airspace System (NAS) and the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NGATS) 2025 concept are to be realized. To address this and other problems such as airport surface congestion, the Space Based Technologies Project s Surface ICNS Network Architecture team at NASA Glenn Research Center has assessed airport surface communications requirements, analyzed existing and future surface applications, and defined a set of architecture functions that will help design a scalable, reliable and flexible surface network architecture to meet the current and future needs of airport operations. This paper describes the systems approach or methodology to networking that was employed to assess airport surface communications requirements, analyze applications, and to define the surface network architecture functions as the building blocks or components of the network. The systems approach used for defining these functions is relatively new to networking. It is viewing the surface network, along with its environment (everything that the surface network interacts with or impacts), as a system. Associated with this system are sets of services that are offered by the network to the rest of the system. Therefore, the surface network is considered as part of the larger system (such as the NAS), with interactions and dependencies between the surface network and its users, applications, and devices. The surface network architecture includes components such as addressing/routing, network management, network performance and security.

Nguyen, Thanh C.↗

Losing Control of Your Linear Network? Try Resilience Theory

Resilience of cyber-physical networks to unexpected failures is a critical need widely recognized across domains. For instance, power grids, telecommunication networks, transportation infrastructures, and water treatment systems have all been subject to disruptive malfunctions and catastrophic cyberattacks. Following such adverse events, we investigate scenarios where a node of a linear network suffers a loss of control authority over some of its actuators. These actuators are not following the controller's commands and are instead producing undesirable outputs. The repercussions of such a loss of control can propagate and destabilize the whole network despite the malfunction occurring at a single node. To assess system vulnerability, we establish resilience conditions for networks with a subsystem enduring a loss of control authority over some of its actuators. Furthermore, we quantify the destabilizing impact on the overall network when such a malfunction perturbs a nonresilient subsystem. We illustrate our resilience conditions on two academic examples, on an islanded microgrid and on the linearized IEEE 39-bus system.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A Single Application of Compost Can Leave Lasting Impacts on Soil Microbial Community Structure and Alter Cross-Domain Interaction Networks

Our current understanding suggests that nutrient management strategies applied to agricultural soils over multiple years are required to cause major and stable shifts in soil microbial communities. However, some studies suggest that agricultural soils can benefit even from sporadic, single additions of organic matter. Here we investigate how single additions of high-quality organic matter can cause significant shifts in microbial soil communities over multiple cropping cycles. We grew radishes in a tropical Oxisol soil for six crop cycles after a single application of a high-nitrogen compost or urea. At planting and before biomass harvest, we sampled soils influenced by the radish rhizosphere and sequenced bacterial and archaeal 16S and fungal ITS rDNA marker genes. We measured microbial richness and diversity, community composition and structure, and constructed correlation networks to predict cross-domain microbial interactions. We found that a single application of compost, compared to urea or control, resulted in a persistent improved plant biomass response and led to sustained changes in the soil microbial community throughout the duration of the 227-day study. Compost altered the structure of both the fungal and prokaryotic microbial communities, introduced new microorganisms that persisted in the resident soil system, and altered soil microbial correlation network structure and hub taxa. In contrast, fertilization with urea did not significantly alter the structure of soil microbial communities compared to the control but reduced network complexity and altered hub taxa. This study highlights the significant impacts that high-quality organic matter fertilization can exert on agricultural soil microbiomes and adds to the growing body of knowledge on using organic fertilizers as a way to steer the soil microbiome toward a healthier soil.

Heisey, Steven↗

Impact of environmental backgrounds on atmospheric monitoring of nuclear explosions

Radionuclide monitoring for nuclear explosions includes measuring radioactive aerosol and noble gas concentrations in the atmosphere. The International Monitoring System (IMS) of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) has made such measurements for decades, revealing much about how atmospheric radioactivity impacts the sensitivity of the network. For example, civilian emissions of radioiodine make a substantial regional impact, but a minor global impact, while civilian radioxenon emissions create major regional and complex global impacts. This example statement is strongly influenced by the minimum signal level anticipated to be interesting. The original design of the IMS anticipated relatively large signal levels, and the accomplished IMS network substantially meets or exceeds the sensitivity needed to detect those signal levels. Much lower signal levels can be motivated, which could require reconsideration of station sensitivity. Using measured and simulated background concentrations, various possible desired signal levels, and an innovative anomaly threshold, maps of sensitivity and a station ranking are developed for current and future stations. These provide a strong motivation for additional experimentation to learn about sources and the potential plusses of new technology.

Eslinger, Paul W.↗

Object-Oriented Bayesian Networks (OOBN) for Aviation Accident Modeling and Technology Portfolio Impact Assessment

The concern for reducing aviation safety risk is rising as the National Airspace System in the United States transforms to the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). The NASA Aviation Safety Program is committed to developing an effective aviation safety technology portfolio to meet the challenges of this transformation and to mitigate relevant safety risks. The paper focuses on the reasoning of selecting Object-Oriented Bayesian Networks (OOBN) as the technique and commercial software for the accident modeling and portfolio assessment. To illustrate the benefits of OOBN in a large and complex aviation accident model, the in-flight Loss-of-Control Accident Framework (LOCAF) constructed as an influence diagram is presented. An OOBN approach not only simplifies construction and maintenance of complex causal networks for the modelers, but also offers a well-organized hierarchical network that is easier for decision makers to exploit the model examining the effectiveness of risk mitigation strategies through technology insertions.

Shih, Ann T.↗

Resilience of Urban Transport Network-of-Networks under Intense Flood Hazards Exacerbated by Targeted Attacks

Natural hazards including floods can trigger catastrophic failures in interdependent urban transport network-of-networks (NoNs). Population growth has enhanced transportation demand while urbanization and climate change have intensified urban floods. However, despite the clear need to develop actionable insights for improving the resilience of critical urban lifelines, the theory and methods remain underdeveloped. Furthermore, as infrastructure systems become more intelligent, security experts point to the growing threat of targeted cyber-physical attacks during natural hazards. Here we develop a hypothesis-driven resilience framework for urban transport NoNs, which we demonstrate on the London Rail Network (LRN). We find that topological attributes designed for maximizing efficiency rather than robustness render the network more vulnerable to compound natural-targeted disruptions including cascading failures. Our results suggest that an organizing principle for post-disruption recovery may be developed with network science principles. Our findings and frameworks can generalize to urban lifelines and more generally to real-world spatial networks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA Integrated Network COOP

Natural disasters, terrorist attacks, civil unrest, and other events have the potential of disrupting mission-essential operations in any space communications network. NASA's Space Communications and Navigation office (SCaN) is in the process of studying options for integrating the three existing NASA network elements, the Deep Space Network, the Near Earth Network, and the Space Network, into a single integrated network with common services and interfaces. The need to maintain Continuity of Operations (COOP) after a disastrous event has a direct impact on the future network design and operations concepts. The SCaN Integrated Network will provide support to a variety of user missions. The missions have diverse requirements and include anything from earth based platforms to planetary missions and rovers. It is presumed that an integrated network, with common interfaces and processes, provides an inherent advantage to COOP in that multiple elements and networks can provide cross-support in a seamless manner. The results of trade studies support this assumption but also show that centralization as a means of achieving integration can result in single points of failure that must be mitigated. The cost to provide this mitigation can be substantial. In support of this effort, the team evaluated the current approaches to COOP, developed multiple potential approaches to COOP in a future integrated network, evaluated the interdependencies of the various approaches to the various network control and operations options, and did a best value assessment of the options. The paper will describe the trade space, the study methods, and results of the study.

Continuity of Operations (COOP)↗

Convex Relaxations of Maximal Load Delivery for Multi-Contingency Analysis of Joint Electric Power and Natural Gas Transmission Networks

Recent increases in gas-fired power generation have engendered increased interdependencies between natural gas and power transmission systems. These interdependencies have amplified existing vulnerabilities in gas and power grids, where disruptions can require the curtailment of load in one or both systems. Although typically operated independently, coordination of these systems during severe disruptions can allow for targeted delivery to lifeline services, including gas delivery for residential heating and power delivery for critical facilities. To address the challenge of estimating maximum joint network capacities under such disruptions, we consider the task of determining feasible steady-state operating points for severely damaged systems while ensuring the maximal delivery of gas and power loads simultaneously, represented mathematically as the nonconvex joint Maximal Load Delivery (MLD) problem. To increase its tractability, we present a mixed-integer convex relaxation of the MLD problem. Then, to demonstrate the relaxation’s effectiveness in determining bounds on network capacities, exact and relaxed MLD formulations are compared across various multi-contingency scenarios on nine joint networks ranging in size from 25 to 1191 nodes. The relaxation-based methodology is observed to accurately and efficiently estimate the impacts of severe joint network disruptions, often converging to the relaxed MLD problem’s globally optimal solution within ten seconds.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Medium-Range River Flood Forecasts Using a Long Short-Term Memory Network

River flooding and the impacts are a concern for decision makers throughout the United States. Accurate medium-range forecasts (~3-7 days) are critical for providing advanced outlooks to emergency management officials. Unfortunately, accurately forecasting rainfall-runoff and the subsequent rise and fall within rivers remain a challenge in hydrological modeling. While complex physical modeling systems are the standard for representing the hydrological processes, they are computationally demanding and can require extensive calibration. Further, uncertainties remain in the model parameters and input data. The use of machine learning can reduce some of the computational demand while maintaining high accuracy. Therefore, this project makes use of a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network which explicitly accounts for the time-dependent nature of rainfall-runoff modeling. The developed LSTM was trained to predict river gauge height, or stage height, based on time-lagged input features which include: gauge height to initialize the model, the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center’s instance of the Land Information System (SPoRT-LIS) relative soil moisture to describe the rainfall infiltration rate, and 6-hr Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor quantitative precipitation estimate (MRMS QPE). The developed LSTM based system is then used to produce 7-day forecasts with a 6-hr temporal resolution using three different quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) from the NWS’s Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) model and the National Blend of Models (NBM). This trained modeling system has been implemented as an experimental product at over 100 different rivers in collaboration with at multiple National Weather Service (NWS) Forecast Offices and River Forecast Centers (RFC) across the eastern half of the United States. The developed LSTM model achieved average Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) 0.89 higher than the equivalent medium-range National Water Model ensemble member forecast over a 7-day forecast. In addition to the initial development and evaluation, this project has continued to expand. While the initial model was developed for precipitation dominated basins, expansion of the project has taken it to basins effected by snow melt. This presentation will provide an overview of the project with focus on recent developments on incorporating snow melt processes into the model.

Andrew T. White↗

Two-Stream Multi-Channel Convolutional Neural Network for Multi-Lane Traffic Speed Prediction Considering Traffic Volume Impact

Traffic speed prediction is a critically important component of intelligent transportation systems. Recently, with the rapid development of deep learning and transportation data science, a growing body of new traffic speed prediction models have been designed that achieved high accuracy and large-scale prediction. However, existing studies have two major limitations. First, they predict aggregated traffic speed rather than lane-level traffic speed; second, most studies ignore the impact of other traffic flow parameters in speed prediction. To address these issues, the authors propose a two-stream multi-channel convolutional neural network (TM-CNN) model for multi-lane traffic speed prediction considering traffic volume impact. In this model, the authors first introduce a new data conversion method that converts raw traffic speed data and volume data into spatial–temporal multi-channel matrices. Then the authors carefully design a two-stream deep neural network to effectively learn the features and correlations between individual lanes, in the spatial–temporal dimensions, and between speed and volume. Accordingly, a new loss function that considers the volume impact in speed prediction is developed. A case study using 1-year data validates the TM-CNN model and demonstrates its superiority. This paper contributes to two research areas: (1) traffic speed prediction, and (2) multi-lane traffic flow study.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

The Effect of Prosumer Duality on Power Market: The Effect of Market Regulation

Electricity prosumers are energy subsystems that not only consume, but also produce electricity. They are present in distribution level networks as traditional utility customers who have installed distributed energy resources. They are also present in transmission level networks as large conglomerates own both generation assets and large industrial loads. Previous work on the economics of prosumers has demonstrated that prosumers in a market have incentives to behave more competitively compared to producers and consumers in traditional markets. This paper further explores the behavior of prosumers and their response to market policies including the allocation of network losses and the impact of net metering. We extend a Cournot model of a dual prosumer and find that prosumers respond with higher supply quantities if network losses are allocated to demand base. They respond with lower supply quantities if network losses are allocated to supply base. Allocating network losses to demand base also causes equilibrium prices to decline. Markets where prosumers first satisfy their own load and then sell the balance of electricity to the grid have lower quantities and higher prices compared to markets where prosumers buy and sell at locational marginal price.

Tsybina, Eve↗

The Interplay of Binary and Quantitative Structure on the Stability of Mutualistic Networks

Synopsis Understanding how the structure of biological systems impacts their resilience (broadly defined) is a recurring question across multiple levels of biological organization. In ecology, considerable effort has been devoted to understanding how the structure of interactions between species in ecological networks is linked to different broad resilience outcomes, especially local stability. Still, nearly all of that work has focused on interaction structure in presence-absence terms and has not investigated quantitative structure, i.e., the arrangement of interaction strengths in ecological networks. We investigated how the interplay between binary and quantitative structure impacts stability in mutualistic interaction networks (those in which species interactions are mutually beneficial), using community matrix approaches. We additionally examined the effects of network complexity and within-guild competition for context. In terms of structure, we focused on understanding the stability impacts of nestedness, a structure in which more-specialized species interact with smaller subsets of the same species that more-generalized species interact with. Most mutualistic networks in nature display binary nestedness, which is puzzling because both binary and quantitative nestedness are known to be destabilizing on their own. We found that quantitative network structure has important consequences for local stability. In more-complex networks, binary-nested structures were the most stable configurations, depending on the quantitative structures, but which quantitative structure was stabilizing depended on network complexity and competitive context. As complexity increases and in the absence of within-guild competition, the most stable configurations have a nested binary structure with a complementary (i.e., anti-nested) quantitative structure. In the presence of within-guild competition, however, the most stable networks are those with a nested binary structure and a nested quantitative structure. In other words, the impact of interaction overlap on community persistence is dependent on the competitive context. These results help to explain the prevalence of binary-nested structures in nature and underscore the need for future empirical work on quantitative structure.

Zoology↗